Expanding soybean production into new, challenging environments will require advancing knowledge of agriculture management technologies to close yield gaps and enhance system’s sustainability. Crop modeling can be a powerful tool to accurately simulate crop growth and productivity under various cultivation conditions. In this study, the FAO AquaCrop model was calibrated and validated to simulate canopy cover (CC), biomass (B), grain yield (Y), soil water content (SWC), and crop evapotranspiration (ETc) for five soybean cultivars with maturity groups ranging from 6 to 9 under rainfed conditions in the Coastal Tablelands region of Alagoas, Brazil. Model performance was evaluated by modeling efficiency (EF), mean error (E), root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Willmott's index (d), and Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r). The model’s performance for CC ranged from acceptable to good, with the best results for cultivars BRS9383 and M6410. Cultivars AS3730, BMX-POTÊNCIA, and BRS9383 showed the best fit for B (20 % > NRMSE < 30 %; RMSE < 1.30 tons ha⁻1; EF above 0.8). The model overestimated SWC (E = 16.6 %) but demonstrated low error in predicting ETc for the cultivars (-18–19 mm). After calibration, the model was applied in long-term simulations to evaluate the impacts of alternative sowing dates on crop productivity. For this purpose, a 49-year series of meteorological data was used. The period from the second half of April to the second half of June is recommended for sowing soybean cultivars in the region. During this period, the average soybean productivity can reach 2.72 (±0.38) tons ha−1. Cultivars M6410 (maturity group 6.4) and BMX-POTÊNCIA (maturity group 6.7) were the most suitable for cultivation in the region. AquaCrop model is powerful to optimize rainfed soybean management for cultivation in Brazil’s new agricultural frontier.
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