Journal of Arid Environments最新文献_第3页

Strength in numbers: Group size enhances individual survival and colony longevity in Damaraland mole-rats Fukomys damarensis 数量优势：群体规模可提高达马拉地鼠的个体存活率和群体寿命

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Journal of Arid Environments

Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2025.105540

Paul Juan Jacobs , Daniel William Hart , Jennifer U.M. Jarvis , Nigel Charles Bennett

Cooperative behaviour presents an evolutionary paradox because although dispersal may increase direct fitness, many individuals forego reproduction to assist others. In arid-dwelling subterranean mammals, the high energetic costs of underground foraging, together with scarce and patchily distributed food resources are thought to have favoured the evolution of group living and cooperative breeding. These social systems are believed to enhance foraging efficiency and improve the survival prospects of individuals and groups. Using a longitudinal dataset from a wild population of Damaraland mole-rats (Fukomys damarensis) in arid central Namibia, we examine how group size predicts survival and persistence at both the individual and group levels. Our findings show that larger groups confer significant apparent survival benefits, that is the probability that an individual survives and remains available for recapture or resighting, reflecting both true survival and site fidelity, and also enhance colony persistence relative to solitary animals or pairs. We further demonstrate that these very small social-unit states are inherently unstable as without increases in group size, they are unlikely to persist within the population for extended periods. Larger groups clearly enhance survival, making remaining in the natal colony more beneficial than dispersing in an arid environment where dispersal is highly risky.

合作行为呈现出一种进化悖论，因为尽管分散可能增加直接适应性，但许多个体为了帮助其他个体而放弃繁殖。在干旱地区生活的地下哺乳动物中，地下觅食的高能量消耗，加上食物资源的稀缺和分布不均，被认为有利于群体生活和合作繁殖的进化。这些社会系统被认为可以提高觅食效率，改善个体和群体的生存前景。利用来自纳米比亚中部干旱地区的达马拉兰鼹鼠（Fukomys damarensis）野生种群的纵向数据集，我们研究了群体大小如何在个体和群体水平上预测生存和持久性。我们的研究结果表明，较大的群体具有明显的生存优势，即个体存活的可能性，并且仍然可以重新捕获或重新安置，这反映了真实的生存和地点保真度，并且相对于孤独的动物或成对的动物，也增强了群体的持久性。我们进一步证明，这些非常小的社会单位状态本质上是不稳定的，因为没有群体规模的增加，它们不太可能在人群中持续很长一段时间。更大的群体显然提高了生存能力，留在出生的群体比分散在干旱的环境中更有利，因为在干旱的环境中分散是非常危险的。

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引用次数: 0

Using spatial water balance to regionalize long-term mean streamflow in a data-scarce Brazilian semi-arid basin 利用空间水平衡对数据稀缺的巴西半干旱盆地长期平均流量进行区划

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Journal of Arid Environments

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2025.105528

Arthur Kolling Neto , Rayssa Balieiro Ribeiro , Fernando Falco Pruski

The use of spatial data can enable the estimation of water availability in semi-arid regions with limited monitoring. This study evaluated regionalization models of long-term mean streamflow in the Paraguaçu river basin, Bahia state, using explanatory variables derived from measured data and spatial products of precipitation and actual evapotranspiration from TerraClimate. The potential model was fitted using multiple regression and evaluated through statistical, physical, and risk analyses. Long-term mean streamflow (Q_mlt) was estimated by univariate potential regionalization in hydrologically homogeneous sub-basins of the Paraguaçu river, comparing predictors based on drainage area (A), equivalent precipitation (Peq), and water balance (WB = P−AET) derived from observed data and spatial products (TerraClimate). Leave-one-station-out (LOSO) validation and a physical–hydrological verification via runoff coefficient along the river network indicated that A tends to overestimate flows in semiarid sectors; Peq improves the fit but ignores evapotranspiration losses; the spatial WB achieved the best overall performance and greater physical consistency. The model with entirely spatial WB showed the best results and the lowest hydrological risk for extrapolation. The approach, using open data and tools, is reproducible and useful for management in regions with sparse monitoring.

利用空间数据可以在监测有限的情况下估计半干旱区的可用水量。本文利用TerraClimate降水和实际蒸散发空间产品的解释变量，对巴伊亚州巴拉圭河流域长期平均流量区划模型进行了评价。使用多元回归拟合潜在模型，并通过统计、物理和风险分析进行评估。通过比较观测数据和空间产品（TerraClimate）得出的流域面积(A)、等效降水（Peq）和水平衡（WB = P−AET）的预测因子，对巴拉圭河水文均质次流域进行了单变量潜在区划，估算了长期平均流量（Qmlt）。LOSO验证和沿河网径流系数的物理水文验证表明，a倾向于高估半干旱区的流量；Peq改善了拟合，但忽略了蒸散损失；空间WB实现了最佳的整体性能和更大的物理一致性。全空间WB模型外推效果最好，水文风险最低。该方法使用开放数据和工具，具有可重复性，对监测较少的地区的管理很有用。

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引用次数: 0

Climate-growth relationships in the introduced dominant woody tree Neltuma juliflora in Santiago Island, Cabo Verde Archipelago (Eastern Atlantic) 东大西洋佛得角群岛圣地亚哥岛引种优势木本树的气候-生长关系

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Journal of Arid Environments

Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2025.105532

Daniel Semedo , Diogo C. Pavão , Lurdes Borges Silva , Guilherme Roxo , Roberto Resendes , Maria Romeiras , Mónica Moura , Luís Silva

Neltuma juliflora (syn. Prosopis juliflora) is the dominant woody species in Cabo Verde, introduced through extensive reforestation efforts to combat land degradation. Despite its ecological and socio-economic relevance, little is known about its growth dynamics and climatic sensitivity in this region. This study investigates growth ring formation and climate–growth relationships of N. juliflora on Santiago Island. We sampled 165 trees across 11 blocks, grouped into four bioclimatic zones. Tree-ring widths were measured using standard dendrochronological techniques. Generalised Linear Models (GLMs) were applied to assess the influence of climatic variables, with multicollinearity controlled using the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF). Although false rings were present, distinct growth boundaries were observed. Mean radial growth varied from 1.53 to 2.11 mm/year across bioclimatic zones. The best GLMs suggest that higher precipitation outside of the usual rainy season could negatively affect growth, while mean annual temperature could have a marginally positive effect. Significant differences in tree-ring growth rate were observed between trees sampled at the four bioclimatic areas, likely reflecting the influence of climate and elevation, and of other factors such as soil and tree density. These results highlight the ecological plasticity of N. juliflora and support its potential use in dendroclimatic research in semi-arid tropical regions. These findings have significant implications for ecosystem-based adaptation strategies and sustainable land management practices in Cabo Verde, particularly in the context of climate change and land degradation mitigation. The study underscores the need for longer chronologies and expanded geographic sampling across the archipelago in future work.

朱莉叶Neltuma juliflora（同名：朱莉叶Prosopis juliflora）是佛得角的主要木本物种，通过广泛的重新造林努力来对抗土地退化。尽管它具有生态和社会经济意义，但人们对该地区的生长动态和气候敏感性知之甚少。本文研究了圣地亚哥岛上朱莉叶属植物的生长年轮形成及其气候-生长关系。我们在11个街区取样了165棵树，分为四个生物气候带。使用标准的树木年轮技术测量树木年轮宽度。应用广义线性模型（GLMs）评估气候变量的影响，并使用方差膨胀因子（VIF）控制多重共线性。虽然存在假环，但观察到明显的生长边界。各生物气候带的平均径向生长在1.53 ~ 2.11 mm/年之间。最佳glm表明，通常雨季以外的高降水量可能对生长产生负面影响，而年平均温度可能有轻微的积极影响。四个生物气候区的树木年轮生长率存在显著差异，这可能反映了气候和海拔以及土壤和树木密度等其他因素的影响。这些结果突出了朱丽草的生态可塑性，并支持其在半干旱热带地区树木气候研究中的潜在应用。这些研究结果对佛得角基于生态系统的适应战略和可持续土地管理做法具有重大影响，特别是在气候变化和减轻土地退化的背景下。这项研究强调了在未来的工作中需要更长的年表和扩大整个群岛的地理采样。

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引用次数: 0

Desert-edge contact zone between goitered gazelle subspecies in northeastern Iran 伊朗东北部喉瞪羚亚种之间的沙漠边缘接触区

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Journal of Arid Environments

Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2025.105531

Hananeh Molania , Davoud Fadakar , Hasan Akbari , Hamid Reza Rezaei

The vulnerable goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) comprises two evolutionarily distinct subspecies in Iran, separated by the central deserts as biogeographic barriers: G. s. yarkandensis (northeast) and G. s. subgutturosa (elsewhere). Using mitochondrial cytochrome b (307 sequences) and nuclear markers (CHD2, ZNF618), we resolved subspecies status in understudied northeastern Iran. Results confirmed G. s. yarkandensis predominance but revealed two pure G. s. subgutturosa haplotypes (H70, H78) through combined genetic analyses. H70 was previously associated with hybrids in central Iran, while H78 was novel. Phylogenetically, both clustered within the G. s. subgutturosa clade adjacent to hybrid haplotypes, with H78 one mutation from H70. Nuclear diagnostics confirmed subspecies identity, rejecting hybrid origins. Critically, H78 occurred naturally at Eshqabad No Hunting Area (northeastern Dasht-e Kavir edge), with H70 at Qayen Breeding Center (translocated). This identifies the northeastern edge of the Dasht-e Kavir as a contact zone where G. s. subgutturosa likely traverses the central deserts into northeastern Iran, overlapping with predominant G. s. yarkandensis. This contact may be facilitated by the latter's westward range expansion from Central Asia. Desert-edge habitats are thus vital conservation priorities, requiring genetic monitoring to maintain subspecies integrity and secure prey for the critically endangered Asiatic cheetah (<50 individuals).

易受伤害的鹅颈瞪羚（Gazella subgutturosa）在伊朗由两个进化上截然不同的亚种组成，它们被中部沙漠作为生物地理屏障分隔开来：g.s. yarkandensis（东北部）和g.s. subgutturosa（其他地区）。利用线粒体细胞色素b（307序列）和核标记（CHD2, ZNF618），我们确定了伊朗东北部未充分研究的亚种状态。结果证实了雅kandensis的优势，但通过组合遗传分析发现了两个纯的g.s. subgutturrosa单倍型（H70, H78）。H70以前与伊朗中部的杂交种有关，而H78是新的。在系统发育上，两者都聚集在与杂交单倍型相邻的G. s. subgutturosa分支中，H78从H70突变而来。核诊断证实了亚种的身份，拒绝了杂交起源。关键的是，H78自然发生在Eshqabad非狩猎区（dash -e Kavir边缘东北部），H70自然发生在Qayen繁殖中心（迁移）。这就确定了Dasht-e Kavir的东北边缘是一个接触带，g.s. subgutturrosa可能在这里穿过中部沙漠进入伊朗东北部，与主要的g.s. yarkandensis重叠。后者从中亚向西扩张，可能促进了这种接触。因此，沙漠边缘的栖息地是至关重要的保护重点，需要基因监测来维持亚种的完整性，并确保极度濒危的亚洲猎豹（50只）的猎物安全。

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引用次数: 0

Multi-scale hybrid deep neural network approach for analyzing sand dune morphometry and movement effects on soil quality 基于多尺度混合深度神经网络的沙丘形态及运动对土壤质量影响分析

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Journal of Arid Environments

Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2025.105523

Huayu Lu , Marzieh Mokarram

This study uses a multi-scale hybrid approach based on deep neural networks to analyze dune morphometry and its relationship with electromagnetic wave reflection and predicts dune movement based on climatic parameters and topography. The results demonstrate that the super-resolution convolutional neural network (SRCNN)–Laplacian combination significantly improves satellite image quality for dune identification and morphometric feature extraction. It achieves a Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR) = 29.42 ± 5.17 dB and a Structural Similarity Index Measure (SSIM) = 0.870 ± 0.049. Multi-resolution segmentation (MRS) analysis determines the optimal scales of 135 m for linear dunes and 100 m for barchan dunes. Electromagnetic wave reflectance analysis shows a strong correlation between infrared waves and dune movement. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model predicts increased aridity and more active dune movement in the future with high accuracy (95 % Confidence Interval for temperature: [0.95, 0.99], for wind speed: [0.79, 0.89]). Soil surveys of agricultural lands near dunes reveal increased salinity, nutrient depletion, and reduced agricultural yields resulting from dune movement and soil erosion. It is concluded that in managing hazards arising from dune movement, a combination of remote sensing techniques and deep neural networks should be employed to predict dune movement patterns and manage soil contamination in surrounding agricultural lands.

本研究采用基于深度神经网络的多尺度混合方法分析沙丘形态及其与电磁波反射的关系，并基于气候参数和地形预测沙丘运动。结果表明，超分辨率卷积神经网络(SRCNN) -拉普拉斯组合显著提高了沙丘识别和形态特征提取的卫星图像质量。峰值信噪比(PSNR) = 29.42±5.17 dB，结构相似性指数(SSIM) = 0.870±0.049。多分辨率分割（MRS）分析确定了线性沙丘的最佳尺度为135 m，新月形沙丘的最佳尺度为100 m。电磁波反射分析表明，红外波与沙丘运动有很强的相关性。长短期记忆（LSTM）模型预测未来干旱增加和沙丘运动更加活跃，精度很高（95%置信区间：温度：[0.95,0.99]，风速：[0.79,0.89]）。对沙丘附近农田的土壤调查显示，由于沙丘移动和土壤侵蚀，土壤含盐量增加，养分枯竭，农业产量下降。在沙丘移动灾害管理中，应将遥感技术与深度神经网络相结合，进行沙丘移动模式预测和周边农用地土壤污染管理。

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引用次数: 0

Response of gross primary productivity of vegetation to meteorological drought in the Yellow River Basin 黄河流域植被总初级生产力对气象干旱的响应

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Journal of Arid Environments

Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2025.105530

Jianyang Shi, Minxia Liu, Siyi Cheng, Jing Yuan

The Yellow River Basin is an important ecologically vulnerable region in China. The response of vegetation growth to climate change and drought stress in this region requires urgent clarification. This study aims to investigate the differential inhibitory effects of drought on carbon uptake across 15 ecosystems and to examine the mechanisms underlying these changes. In our analyses, we used multiple methods, including trend analysis, structural equation modeling (SEM), and ridge regression, and integrated multi-source remote sensing data, including the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), precipitation (Prec), and temperature (Ta). The results indicate that: (1) Grassland GPP showed widespread declines in the middle and lower reaches, suggesting that grasslands were the most sensitive to drought stress. (2) Grasslands primarily exhibited lagged responses of 4 months, whereas croplands responded with shorter, 1-month lags. In contrast, Forests showed cumulative responses over 10–12 months. Additionally, high-resilience croplands were expanding along the Henan–Shandong axis. Forest resilience was lowest in the semi-arid northwest region and in Ningxia across the basin. (3) Prec was identified as the primary positive driver of basin-wide GPP. Grassland GPP was directly regulated by Prec, whereas cropland GPP was mainly limited by photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), although soil moisture (SM) could mitigate drought stress. In forest ecosystems, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was the key limiting factor, and elevated Ta intensified the negative effects of drought by reducing SM. This research will contribute to strengthening future ecosystem management and mitigating the threats of climate change to ecosystems.

黄河流域是中国重要的生态脆弱区。该地区植被生长对气候变化和干旱胁迫的响应亟待澄清。本研究旨在探讨干旱对15个生态系统碳吸收的不同抑制作用，并探讨这些变化的机制。采用趋势分析、结构方程模型（SEM）和脊回归等方法，结合标准化降水蒸散发指数（SPEI）、降水（Prec）和温度（Ta）等多源遥感数据进行分析。结果表明：①中下游草地GPP普遍下降，草地对干旱胁迫最为敏感；(2)草地的反应滞后期主要为4个月，而农田的反应滞后期较短，为1个月。相比之下，森林显示了10-12个月的累积反应。此外，高韧性农田沿河南—山东轴线扩展。半干旱的西北地区和整个流域的宁夏森林恢复力最低。(3) Prec是全流域GPP的主要正驱动因素。草地GPP直接受土壤水分的调节，而农田GPP主要受光合有效辐射（PAR）的限制，土壤水分（SM）对干旱胁迫有一定的缓解作用。在森林生态系统中，水汽压亏缺（VPD）是关键的限制因子，Ta的升高通过减少SM而加剧了干旱的负面影响。该研究将有助于加强未来的生态系统管理，减轻气候变化对生态系统的威胁。

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引用次数: 0

Ecological restoration projects contributed to vegetation greening on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Journal of Arid Environments

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2025.105527

Yaoxuan Huang , Zegen Wang , Yanmei Yang , Zhiwei Yong , Yaxin Liu , Yingyang Wang , Junxin Zhao

Over the past two decades, China has implemented a series of ecological restoration projects (ERPs) on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau; however, their contribution to vegetation recovery remains uncertain. To assess vegetation dynamics from 2000 to 2020, the spatiotemporal patterns of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Net Primary Productivity (NPP) were analyzed using trend analysis methods, while the partial derivative method was employed to quantify the contributions of ERPs and climate change (CC). The results indicate that 33.5 % of the vegetation experienced sustained recovery, with high-, medium-, and low-recovery areas covering 23.1 %, 48.5 %, and 10.8 % of the plateau, respectively. ERPs had overall positive effects, exceeding 60 % in most regions, particularly in central areas, and their impact on NPP was stronger than on NDVI or LAI. Vegetation recovery was driven by complex factors: CC dominated increases in NDVI and LAI, whereas the interaction between ERPs and CC had a stronger influence on NPP growth than either factor alone. Specifically, CC accounted for 65.4 %–71.1 % of vegetation greening, while ERPs contributed 28.9 %–34.6 %. These findings underscore the dominant role of CC and the complementary contribution of ERPs, providing valuable insights into vegetation recovery mechanisms and a theoretical basis for future ecological restoration on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.

为了评价2000 - 2020年植被动态，采用趋势分析方法分析了归一化植被指数（NDVI）、叶面积指数（LAI）和净初级生产力（NPP）的时空格局，并采用偏导数方法量化了ERPs和气候变化（CC）的贡献。结果表明：高原植被持续恢复的比例为33.5%，高、中、低恢复面积分别为23.1%、48.5%和10.8%。总体而言，erp对NPP的影响大于NDVI和LAI，在大部分地区（特别是中部地区）均超过60%。植被恢复受复杂因子的驱动，植被覆盖度在NDVI和LAI的增加中占主导地位，而植被覆盖度和植被覆盖度的交互作用对植被覆盖度增长的影响大于单独的任何一个因子。其中，CC占植被绿化的65.4% ~ 71.1%，erp占28.9% ~ 34.6%。

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引用次数: 0

Hydrological connectivity drives groundwater fluctuations and water quality dynamics in the Taitema Lake wetland ecosystem 水文连通性驱动泰特玛湖湿地生态系统地下水波动和水质动态

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Journal of Arid Environments

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2025.105524

Xianglong Wang , Hailiang Xu , Abdul Waheed , Kun Liu , Xinfeng Zhao , Qin Zhang

Lake Wetlands in arid regions are vital ecological components that provide essential hydrological and biogeochemical functions. The Taitema Lake wetland, located in a highly sensitive arid environment, plays a critical role in supporting regional biodiversity and ecological stability. This study utilizes remote sensing data and field monitoring data to assess the relationship among hydrological connectivity, groundwater levels, and water quality in the Taitema Lake wetland through models such as Mann-Kendall trend analysis and gradient boosting trees. Results indicate that the wetland's hydrological connectivity exhibits distinct cyclical variations, showing an overall trend of initial increase followed by decline, peaking in 2010. Groundwater levels have been continuously decreasing and are unlikely to recover to pre-2010 levels in the short term. A critical threshold exists between groundwater levels and hydrological connectivity: connectivity exceeding this threshold paradoxically triggers a downward trend in groundwater levels. Following ecological water conveyance after implementation, overall ion concentrations in the water body decreased, with cations exerting a greater influence on hydrological connectivity than anions. This study clarifies the coupling of connectivity, groundwater, and water quality, offering insights for wetland restoration and water management.

干旱区湖泊湿地是重要的生态组成部分，具有重要的水文和生物地球化学功能。泰特玛湖湿地处于高度敏感的干旱环境中，在支持区域生物多样性和生态稳定方面发挥着至关重要的作用。本研究利用遥感资料和野外监测资料，通过Mann-Kendall趋势分析和梯度提升树等模型，评估了太原湖湿地水文连通性、地下水位和水质之间的关系。结果表明：湿地水文连通性具有明显的周期性变化，总体呈现先上升后下降的趋势，并在2010年达到峰值；地下水位一直在不断下降，短期内不太可能恢复到2010年以前的水平。地下水位与水文连通性之间存在一个临界阈值：连通性超过这个阈值反而会引发地下水位的下降趋势。实施生态输水后，水体整体离子浓度下降，且阳离子对水文连通性的影响大于阴离子。该研究阐明了连通性、地下水和水质的耦合关系，为湿地恢复和水管理提供了新的思路。

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引用次数: 0

Revealing spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of ecological vulnerability under climate and human pressures using multi-source remote sensing in the dryland of China 基于多源遥感的中国旱地气候与人类压力下生态脆弱性时空动态及驱动机制

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Journal of Arid Environments

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2025.105526

Yongxin Shi , Chunyi Li , Yonglei Shi

The Mu Us Sandy Land, situated in the arid–semi-arid transition zone of northern China, has long experienced severe drought and intensive human disturbance, leading to persistent risks of desertification and wind erosion. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecological vulnerability (EV) is crucial for informing ecological restoration and promoting sustainable ecosystem management in such fragile environments. This study aims to (1) construct an SRP (Sensitivity–Resilience–Pressure) model that integrating multi-source remote sensing and geospatial data, including topographic, vegetation, climatic, demographic, and soil variables; (2) analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of EV from 2000 to 2020 using Moran's I and standard deviation ellipse methods; and (3) identify the dominant driving factors and their interactions that shape EV spatial heterogeneity through a geographical detector approach. Results show that (1) the ecological vulnerability index (EVI) initial decline followed by rise during 2000–2020, reaching its lowest level in 2005. (2) A pronounced west–east gradient pattern was observed, with high EV concentrated in the western region. (3) Significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I = 0.739–0.822) revealed stable clustering characteristics of EV. (4) Fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and precipitation were identified as the dominant interacting drivers shaping the spatial distribution of EV. These findings deepen the understanding of EV dynamics in arid and semi-arid regions and provide a scientific basis for targeted ecological restoration and sustainable environmental management.

毛乌素沙地地处中国北方干旱-半干旱过渡带，长期遭受严重干旱和人为干扰，沙漠化和风蚀风险持续存在。了解生态脆弱性的时空动态变化对生态恢复和生态系统可持续管理具有重要意义。本研究旨在(1)构建一个融合地形、植被、气候、人口和土壤等多源遥感和地理空间数据的SRP （Sensitivity-Resilience-Pressure）模型；(2)利用Moran’s I和标准差椭圆法分析2000 - 2020年EV的时空演化特征；(3)通过地理探测器方法识别影响EV空间异质性的主导驱动因素及其相互作用。结果表明：(1)生态脆弱性指数（EVI）在2000-2020年间呈先下降后上升的趋势，2005年达到最低水平；(2)呈明显的西-东梯度分布，高EV集中在西部地区。(3)显著的正空间自相关（Moran’s I = 0.739 ~ 0.822）表明EV具有稳定的聚类特征。(4)植被覆盖度（FVC）和降水量是影响植被覆盖度空间分布的主要交互驱动因子。这些发现加深了对干旱半干旱区植被动态的认识，为有针对性的生态修复和可持续的环境管理提供了科学依据。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing the impact of climate change on crop water productivity: Historical simulations and future projections for the Hetao Irrigation District 气候变化对作物水分生产力的影响评估：河套灌区历史模拟与未来预测

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Journal of Arid Environments

Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2025.105525

Jing Xue , Hanxiao Bian , Junfeng Chen , Lihong Cui

Climate change is closely linked to agricultural production and water resource utilization,and rationally assessing crop water productivity (WP) under future climate conditions is crucial for the Hetao Irrigation District (HID) in Inner Mongolia, China to adapt to climate change. However, quantitative analyses exploring the response of the WP to future climate change by coupling the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and distributed SWAP-WOFOST model at the regional scale remain scarce. In this study, the SDSM was constructed, calibrated and validated to predict and analyze the future major meteorological elements. Temporal and spatial distributions of yields and WP for the three crops in the future scenarios were simulated and analyzed by model coupling. To improve crop WP, the planting structure of the three crops was adjusted by the “Z-score normalization” method for future climate conditions. The results showed that temperature and precipitation will exhibit considerable fluctuations in the future, with increases up to 3.53 °C in maximum temperature, 2.53 °C in minimum temperature, and 75.7 % in precipitation, while variations in relative humidity and solar radiation remain minor. Under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, yields and WP declined over time, with reductions of 32.5 %–53.4 % (yield) and 34.0 %–49.3 % (WP) by the 2050s, with RCP8.5 exhibiting greater declines. Adjusted planting structures improved sunflower WP by 3.7 %–6.3 % in the 2030s and 2050s, spring wheat yield by 2.4 %–3.1 % in the 2030s, and spring maize by 6.1 %–9.1 % in the 2050s. The findings provide quantitative references for irrigation districts to address future climate challenges. Keywords: SDSM; Distributed SWAP-WOFOST model; Climate change; Hetao Irrigation District; Water productivity; Planting structure zoning.

气候变化与农业生产和水资源利用密切相关，合理评估未来气候条件下的作物水分生产力（WP）对内蒙古河套灌区适应气候变化至关重要。然而，在区域尺度上，通过统计降尺度模型（SDSM）和分布式SWAP-WOFOST模型耦合探讨WP对未来气候变化响应的定量分析仍然很少。本研究构建、校准和验证了SDSM用于预测和分析未来主要气象要素。通过模型耦合模拟分析了三种作物在未来情景下的产量和WP的时空分布。为了提高作物WP，采用“Z-score归一化”方法对未来气候条件下三种作物的种植结构进行调整。结果表明，未来气温和降水将出现较大波动，最高气温将增加3.53℃，最低气温将增加2.53℃，降水量将增加75.7%，而相对湿度和太阳辐射的变化较小。在两种代表性浓度路径（RCP）情景下，产量和WP都随着时间的推移而下降，到2050年代，产量和WP分别下降32.5% ~ 53.4%和34.0% ~ 49.3%，其中RCP8.5的下降幅度更大。调整后的种植结构使向日葵的WP在2030年代和2050年代分别提高3.7% - 6.3%，春小麦产量在2030年代提高2.4% - 3.1%，春玉米产量在2050年代提高6.1% - 9.1%。研究结果为灌区应对未来气候挑战提供了定量参考。关键词:SDSM;中分布式swap - woofost模型；气候变化;河套灌区；水分生产力;种植结构分区。

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