The growth dynamics of vegetation are crucial to regional ecological security and are highly sensitive to climate change and hydrological processes. However, the contributions of climatic and hydrological factors to vegetation changes have not been fully quantified, particularly in water-constrained basins. Utilizing multi-source remote sensing and ground observation data from the Chaobai River Basin, China (2006–2023), this study systematically analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and evaluated the relative contributions of climatic factors (temperature, T; precipitation, P), hydrological elements (soil moisture storage anomalies, ΔSMS; groundwater storage anomalies, ΔGWS), and human activities. The results demonstrate that: (1) Growing-season NDVI showed a significant upward trend (average increase 0.0042 yr−1, P < 0.01), with 85.87 % of the area experiencing significant greening; (2) NDVI was widely positively correlated with ΔSMS (93.66 % of area), but strongly negatively correlated with ΔGWS (95.19 %); (3) A residual trend attribution analysis revealed that hydrological elements were the dominant drivers, with contributions from ΔGWS (60.78 %) and ΔSMS (23.20 %) far exceeding those of T (8.28 %), P (2.95 %), and human activities (4.79 %). This study highlights vegetation's dependence on groundwater depletion in water-limited settings and underscores the critical need to reconcile ecological restoration with sustainable groundwater management.
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