Mathematical Biosciences最新文献

英文中文

Modulation of blood pressure by estrogen: A modeling analysis 雌激素对血压的调节：一个模型分析

IF 1.8 4区数学 Q2 BIOLOGY

Mathematical Biosciences

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109610

Anita T. Layton

Hypertension is a global health challenge: it affects one billion people worldwide and is estimated to account for >60% of all cases or types of cardiovascular disease. Premenopausal women have lower blood pressure and hypertension prevalence compared to age-matched men, but that female protection is lost after menopause, the onset of which marks the beginning of a rapid decline in estrogen levels. The precise mechanisms by which estrogen protects premenopausal women from hypertension have yet to be elucidated. What is known is that estrogen has a plethora of interactions with other hormone systems as well as physiological processes known or hypothesized to impact the regulation of blood pressure. Thus, an objective of this study is to identify the primary contributors to the estrogen-mediated cardiovascular protection. To accomplish that goal, we develop a blood pressure regulation model that incorporates the effects of estrogen on the renin-angiotensin system, the reactivity of renal sympathetic nervous activity, vascular tone, and renal epithelial transport. Model simulations suggest that estrogen’s vasodilatory effect, especially on the afferent arterioles, is the largest cause of premenopausal women’s lower blood pressure and resistance to developing hypertension. Furthermore, the model predicts that angiotensin receptor blockers are more effective than angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors in treating hypertensive women throughout their lifespan, even as estrogen levels decline.

高血压是一项全球性的健康挑战：它影响着全世界10亿人，据估计占所有心血管疾病病例或类型的60%。与同龄男性相比，绝经前女性的血压和高血压患病率较低，但绝经后女性的这种保护作用就消失了，绝经的开始标志着雌激素水平的迅速下降。雌激素保护绝经前妇女免受高血压的确切机制尚未阐明。已知的是，雌激素与其他激素系统以及已知的或假设的影响血压调节的生理过程有过多的相互作用。因此，本研究的目的是确定雌激素介导的心血管保护的主要贡献者。为了实现这一目标，我们开发了一个血压调节模型，该模型结合了雌激素对肾素-血管紧张素系统、肾交感神经活动的反应性、血管张力和肾上皮运输的影响。模型模拟表明，雌激素的血管扩张作用，特别是对传入小动脉的扩张作用，是绝经前妇女血压降低和抵抗高血压的最大原因。此外，该模型预测血管紧张素受体阻滞剂比血管紧张素转换酶抑制剂在治疗高血压妇女一生中更有效，即使雌激素水平下降。

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引用次数: 0

Extinction and persistence of Peregrinus maidis: Stochastic modeling under thermal, density-dependent, and maize off-season constraints 小圆叶菊的灭绝和持久性：热、密度依赖和玉米淡季约束下的随机模型

IF 1.8 4区数学 Q2 BIOLOGY

Mathematical Biosciences

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109607

F.E. Cornes , L. Rivero Gonzalez , M. Otero

We developed a stochastic dynamic model to simulate the development of Peregrinus maidis, capturing key ecological interactions and stage-structured population dynamics of this maize-specialist insect. The model incorporates a density-dependent regulation mechanism that acts during the nymphal stage, with population size constrained by a fixed pseudo-carrying capacity. Development rates are temperature-dependent, allowing the model to capture the insect’s sensitivity to environmental conditions. Simulation results reveal two distinct population regimes: extinction and persistence. Persistence is characterized by stable equilibrium distributions across life stages, with peak abundances occurring near 25 ^∘C. In contrast, low temperatures (below 20 ^∘C) and limited resource availability significantly increase extinction probability. The analysis also highlights the buffering role of high pseudo-carrying capacities against demographic collapse. Importantly, our simulations of “quasi-extinction” times indicate that local populations often collapse within 1.5-4 months, a range comparable to or shorter than the harvest-to-sowing interval in many maize-based cropping systems, thereby highlighting the potential role of migration or alternative hosts in sustaining persistence. In this framework, population regulation is governed by density-dependent effects through a constant pseudo-carrying capacity, while temperature modulates development rates. These findings provide a mechanistic basis for understanding how stochasticity, nonlinearity, and environmental drivers shape insect population dynamics, with potential applications for anticipating pest behavior under variable climatic and agronomic conditions.

本文建立了一个随机动态模型来模拟玉米小飞虱的发育过程，以捕捉这种玉米专用昆虫的关键生态相互作用和阶段结构的种群动态。该模型结合了一个密度依赖的调节机制，该机制在若虫阶段起作用，种群规模受到固定的伪承载能力的限制。发育速度与温度有关，这使得模型能够捕捉到昆虫对环境条件的敏感性。模拟结果揭示了两种不同的种群状态：灭绝和持久。持久性的特点是生命各阶段的稳定平衡分布，丰度在25°C附近达到峰值 °C。相反，低温（低于20 °C）和有限的可用资源大大增加了灭绝的可能性。分析还强调了高伪承载能力对人口崩溃的缓冲作用。重要的是，我们对“准灭绝”时间的模拟表明，当地种群通常在1.5-4个月内崩溃，这一范围相当于或短于许多以玉米为基础的种植系统的收获到播种间隔，从而突出了迁移或替代宿主在维持持久性方面的潜在作用。在这个框架中，人口调节是由密度依赖效应通过恒定的伪承载能力来控制的，而温度调节着发展速度。这些发现为理解随机、非线性和环境驱动因素如何影响昆虫种群动态提供了机制基础，并具有在可变气候和农艺条件下预测害虫行为的潜在应用。

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引用次数: 0

A multiobjective optimization approach to data assimilation for complex biological systems with sparse data 具有稀疏数据的复杂生物系统数据同化的多目标优化方法。

IF 1.8 4区数学 Q2 BIOLOGY

Mathematical Biosciences

Pub Date : 2025-12-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109605

David J. Albers , George Hripcsak , Lena Mamykina , Melike Sirlanci , Esteban G. Tabak

This article develops a novel multiobjective data assimilation methodology, addressing challenges that are common in real-world settings, such as severe sparsity of observations, lack of reliable models, and non-stationarity of the system dynamics. These challenges often cause issues and can confound model parameter estimation and initialization that can lead to estimated models with unrealistic qualitative dynamics and induce qualitative and quantitative parameter estimation errors. The proposed multiobjective function is constructed as a sum of components, each serving a different purpose: enforcing point-wise and distribution-wise agreement between data and model output, enforcing agreement of variables and parameters with a model provided, and penalizing unrealistic rapid parameter changes, unless they are due to external drivers or interventions. This methodology was motivated by, developed and evaluated in the context of estimating blood glucose levels in different medical settings. Both simulated and real data are used to evaluate the methodology from different perspectives, such as its ability to estimate unmeasured variables, its ability to reproduce the correct qualitative blood glucose dynamics, how it manages non-stationarity, and how it performs when given a range of dense and severely sparse data. The results show that a multicomponent cost function can balance the minimization of point-wise errors with global properties, robustly preserving correct qualitative dynamics and managing data sparsity.

本文开发了一种新的多目标数据同化方法，解决了现实世界中常见的挑战，如观测的严重稀疏性，缺乏可靠的模型，以及系统动力学的非平稳性。这些挑战通常会导致问题，并可能混淆模型参数估计和初始化，从而导致估计的模型具有不切实际的定性动态，并导致定性和定量参数估计错误。提出的多目标函数被构造为组件的总和，每个组件都服务于不同的目的：强制数据和模型输出之间的点和分布协议，强制变量和参数与所提供的模型的协议，并惩罚不切实际的快速参数变化，除非它们是由于外部驱动程序或干预。这种方法的动机，发展和评估的背景下，估计血糖水平在不同的医疗环境。模拟数据和真实数据都用于从不同角度评估该方法，例如其估计未测量变量的能力，再现正确的定性血糖动态的能力，如何管理非平稳性，以及在给定一系列密集和严重稀疏的数据时如何执行。结果表明，多分量代价函数可以平衡点误差与全局属性的最小化，鲁棒性地保持正确的定性动态和管理数据稀疏性。

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引用次数: 0

How human behavior drives the balance of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases in emerging infections 人类行为如何驱动新发感染中有症状和无症状病例的平衡。

IF 1.8 4区数学 Q2 BIOLOGY

Mathematical Biosciences

Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109601

Asma Azizi , Zhuolin Qu , Caner Kazanci

Human behavioral changes in response to observing disease in others play a crucial role in the spread of epidemics. These behaviors create selective pressures that influence a virus’s ability to survive. This study explores how human behavioral adaptations influence the co-evolution of symptomatic and asymptomatic pathogen strains during an epidemic. Using a deterministic Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) model, it examines the role of spontaneous social distancing (SD) in shaping the selection pressures on these strains. The analysis highlights how behavioral changes can drive shifts in the prevalence of symptomatic versus asymptomatic cases, offering insights into the evolutionary dynamics of pathogen variants. Individuals initiate SD after contact with symptomatic cases, either by reducing interactions with everyone or by specifically avoiding symptomatic individuals. The analysis shows that homogeneous contact reduction tends to favor symptomatic strain, while targeted avoidance of symptomatic cases promotes the selection of asymptomatic one. The study underscores the complex, non-linear dynamics of selections under different levels of social distancing. A global sensitivity analysis highlights the significance of behavioral parameters in controlling the overall size of the infection. The findings emphasize the need for public health strategies that account for human behavior to effectively limit the spread and evolution of viral strains.

观察到他人患病后，人类的行为改变对流行病的传播起着至关重要的作用。这些行为产生了影响病毒生存能力的选择性压力。本研究探讨了人类行为适应如何影响流行病期间有症状和无症状病原体菌株的共同进化。使用确定性易感-感染-去除（SIR）模型，研究了自发社会距离（SD）在形成这些菌株的选择压力中的作用。该分析强调了行为改变如何驱动有症状与无症状病例患病率的变化，为病原体变异的进化动力学提供了见解。个体在接触有症状的病例后，要么减少与所有人的互动，要么特别避开有症状的个体，从而引发SD。分析表明，均匀减少接触倾向于有症状的菌株，而有针对性地避免有症状的病例促进了对无症状病例的选择。该研究强调了在不同程度的社交距离下选择的复杂、非线性动态。全局敏感性分析强调了行为参数在控制感染总体规模方面的重要性。这些发现强调了公共卫生策略的必要性，这些策略可以解释人类行为，从而有效地限制病毒株的传播和进化。

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引用次数: 0

Bifurcation analysis of an SIS epidemic reaction-diffusion model with maturation delay and nonlinear birth 具有成熟延迟和非线性出生的SIS流行病反应扩散模型的分岔分析。

IF 1.8 4区数学 Q2 BIOLOGY

Mathematical Biosciences

Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109599

Qianqian Sun , Chunjin Wei , Junjie Wei

In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of SIS epidemic reaction-diffusion model with maturation delay and nonlinear birth. The stability of disease free equilibrium (DFE) and endemic equilibrium (EE) is determined by analyzing the distribution of the eigenvalues. Based on this investigation, a bifurcation set in the parameter plane is constructed, revealing how the system’s behavior evolves with varying parameters. Furthermore, we obtain some local Hopf bifurcation results and derive formulas for determining the bifurcation direction and the stability of the bifurcated periodic solution. Finally, numerical simulations are conducted to validate the theoretical results and further illustrate the dynamic behavior of the model.

本文研究了具有成熟延迟和非线性出生的SIS流行病反应扩散模型的动力学问题。通过分析特征值的分布来确定无病平衡和地方病平衡的稳定性。在此基础上，构造了参数平面上的分岔集，揭示了系统行为随参数变化的演化规律。进一步，我们得到了局部Hopf分岔结果，并推导出了确定分岔方向和分岔周期解稳定性的公式。最后进行了数值模拟，验证了理论结果，进一步说明了模型的动态特性。

引用次数: 0

Hopf bifurcation in a coupled age-structured and ODE system with n-predators and m-prey 具有n-捕食者和m-被捕食者的年龄结构和ODE耦合系统的Hopf分岔。

IF 1.8 4区数学 Q2 BIOLOGY

Mathematical Biosciences

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109603

San-Xing Wu, Zhi-Cheng Wang

In this paper, we investigate a coupled age-structured and ODE system involving n-predators and m-prey. First, we transform the original coupled system with ODEs and PDEs into a non-densely defined abstract Cauchy problem. Second, we explore the existence and uniqueness of the positive equilibrium by using integrated semigroup theory, and directly derive the Hopf bifurcation theorem corresponding to the coupled system. This method overcomes the shortcomings of the biological assumptions and methodologies traditionally associated with the use of the condition

V (t) = \int_{0}^{+ \infty} v (t, a) d a

to study the existence of Hopf bifurcation. Particularly, we give a simple age-structured predator-prey system with 1-predator and 2-preys to demonstrate the application of Hopf bifurcation theorem for the coupled system. Finally, we verify the existence of Hopf bifurcation for this 1-predator and 2-preys system by combining theoretical analysis and numerical simulations.

本文研究了一个包含n-捕食者和m-被捕食者的年龄结构耦合ODE系统。首先，将原始的偏微分方程和偏微分方程耦合系统转化为一个非密集定义的抽象柯西问题。其次，利用积分半群理论探讨了正平衡的存在唯一性，并直接导出了耦合系统对应的Hopf分岔定理。该方法克服了传统的生物学假设和方法的缺点，即使用条件V(t)=∫0+∞V(t,a)da来研究Hopf分岔的存在性。特别地，我们给出了一个简单的年龄结构的1捕食者和2被捕食者的捕食者-猎物系统，以证明Hopf分岔定理在耦合系统中的应用。最后，通过理论分析和数值模拟相结合，验证了该1-捕食者- 2-被捕食者系统存在Hopf分岔。

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引用次数: 0

Asymmetric diffusion of prey in predation systems with multiple patches 多斑块捕食系统中猎物的不对称扩散。

IF 1.8 4区数学 Q2 BIOLOGY

Mathematical Biosciences

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109600

Weiting Song , Shikun Wang , Yuanshi Wang

This paper considers predator-prey systems with multiple patches, where individuals of the prey move among patches. Rigorous analysis on the model shows nonnegativeness and boundedness of the solutions. Further study shows conditions by which the system admits an equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable. For two-patch systems, it is shown that varying the diffusion of prey could make the predator transition between persisting in two patches, survival only in one of the patches, and extinction in both patches in a smooth fashion. For multi-patch systems, it is shown that the diffusion of prey could lead to a win-win situation, where total population abundances of both prey and predator are larger than those without dispersal, which extends previous theory. A novel prediction of this work is that the preference in diffusion could lead to the increase of population abundance, even lead to the maximal abundance. These results are important in ecological conservation and management.

本文考虑具有多斑块的捕食者-猎物系统，其中猎物个体在斑块之间移动。对模型进行了严密的分析，证明了模型解的非负性和有界性。进一步的研究给出了系统允许平衡点全局渐近稳定的条件。对于双斑块系统，研究表明，改变猎物的扩散可以使捕食者在两个斑块中持续存在，仅在一个斑块中生存，以及在两个斑块中灭绝之间平稳过渡。对于多斑块系统，研究表明，猎物的扩散可能导致双赢的局面，即猎物和捕食者的总丰度都大于没有扩散的情况，这扩展了先前的理论。本研究提出了一种新的预测，即对扩散的偏好会导致种群丰度的增加，甚至达到最大丰度。这些结果对生态保护和管理具有重要意义。

引用次数: 0

Complex dynamics and pattern formation in a diffusive epidemic model with an infection-dependent recovery rate 具有感染依赖恢复率的弥漫性流行病模型的复杂动力学和模式形成。

IF 1.8 4区数学 Q2 BIOLOGY

Mathematical Biosciences

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109602

Wael El Khateeb , Chanaka Kottegoda , Chunhua Shan

A diffusive epidemic model with an infection-dependent recovery rate is formulated in this paper. Multiple constant steady states and spatially homogeneous periodic solutions are first proven by bifurcation analysis of the reaction kinetics. It is shown that the model exhibits diffusion-driven instability, where the infected population acts as an activator and the susceptible population functions as an inhibitor. The faster movement of the susceptible class will induce the spatial and spatiotemporal patterns, which are characterized by k-mode Turing instability and (k₁, k₂)-mode Turing-Hopf bifurcation. The transient dynamics from a purely temporal oscillatory regime to a spatial periodic pattern are discovered. The model reveals key transmission dynamics, including asynchronous disease recurrence, spatially patterned waves, and the formation of localized hotspots. The study suggests that spatially targeted strategies are necessary to contain disease waves that vary regionally and cyclically.

本文建立了具有感染依赖恢复率的扩散流行病模型。通过反应动力学的分岔分析，首次证明了反应的多常稳态和空间齐次周期解。结果表明，该模型表现出扩散驱动的不稳定性，其中受感染群体充当激活器，易感群体充当抑制剂。易受影响群体的快速运动将诱发时空格局，其特征为k模图灵不稳定性和（k1, k2）模图灵- hopf分岔。发现了从纯时间振荡状态到空间周期模式的瞬态动力学。该模型揭示了关键的传播动力学，包括非同步疾病复发、空间模式波和局部热点的形成。该研究表明，有必要采取有空间针对性的战略，以遏制区域和周期性变化的疾病浪潮。

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to: "Computational optimization for S-type biological systems: Cockroach genetic algorithm" [Math. Biosci. 245 (2013) 299–313] “s型生物系统的计算优化：蟑螂遗传算法”的勘误表。生物科学学报，2013(5):379 - 379。

IF 1.8 4区数学 Q2 BIOLOGY

Mathematical Biosciences

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109604

Shinq-Jen Wu, Sing-Yu Lu

引用次数: 0

Modeling and analysis of the transmission dynamics in metapopulation networks incorporating individual contact heterogeneity 包含个体接触异质性的元种群网络传播动力学建模与分析。

IF 1.8 4区数学 Q2 BIOLOGY

Mathematical Biosciences

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109598

Pengle Sun , Shanshan Feng , Zhen Jin

In studies of traditional metapopulation networks, researchers typically assumed that individuals within subpopulations were well-mixed, ignoring individual contact heterogeneity. However, in real life, individual contact exhibits high levels of heterogeneity. To address this, we build an SIS model that couples individual contact heterogeneity on a metapopulation network, which is characterized by constructing dynamic subnetworks within subpopulations. Theoretically, the basic reproduction number is obtained, the existence and uniqueness of equilibria, as well as their global stability, are proved. Through numerical simulations, theoretical results are validated. Additionally, the findings reveal a positive correlation between individual contact heterogeneity and the basic reproduction number, while its effect on the scale of the epidemic exhibits a dual nature, contingent upon infection rate and the degree of subpopulations. Furthermore, when the order of magnitude of the migration rate is below

10^{- 3}

, the scale of the epidemic expands while showing no dependence on the basic reproduction number; and when the order of magnitude of the migration rate exceeds

10^{- 3}

, the scale decreases and displays a negative correlation with the basic reproduction number. Based on the research findings, we propose a systematic disease control framework, which can serve as a strategic reference and practical guide for future infectious disease prevention efforts.

在传统的元种群网络研究中，研究人员通常假设亚种群内的个体混合良好，忽略了个体接触的异质性。然而，在现实生活中，个体接触表现出高度的异质性。为了解决这个问题，我们建立了一个SIS模型，该模型在元种群网络上耦合个体接触异质性，其特征是在亚种群内构建动态子网络。从理论上得到了平衡点的基本繁殖数，证明了平衡点的存在唯一性及其全局稳定性。通过数值模拟，验证了理论结果。此外，研究结果表明，个体接触异质性与基本繁殖数之间存在正相关关系，而其对流行病规模的影响表现出双重性质，取决于感染率和亚种群的程度。当迁移率数量级低于10-3时，疫情规模扩大，但不依赖于基本繁殖数；当迁移速率的数量级超过10-3时，尺度减小，且与基本繁殖数呈负相关。在此基础上，我们提出了一个系统的传染病控制框架，为今后的传染病预防工作提供战略参考和实践指导。

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