Climate change poses a significant threat to the sustainability of smallholder farming systems in Nigeria, intensifying food insecurity, reducing productivity, and weakening rural livelihoods. As a result, adaptive and mitigative responses have become increasingly vital for smallholder farmers. This study employed a scoping review approach to examine how social networks influence the climate adaptation and mitigation strategies of smallholder farmers across Nigeria. A total of 62 empirical studies published between 2000 and 2024 were analyzed to identify methodological trends, conceptual frameworks, network typologies, and research gaps. The review shows a growing body of literature on the topic, with publication output rising steadily, especially after 2010. Most studies were concentrated in the southwestern, north-central, and southeastern regions of Nigeria, with limited research conducted in climate-vulnerable zones such as the northeast. Findings reveal that social networks—both bonding ties (e.g., kinship, community groups) and bridging ties (e.g., NGOs, extension agents)—play critical roles in disseminating information, facilitating innovation adoption, and enabling collective action. However, there remains limited attention to gender, youth inclusion, digital network transformations, and power asymmetries within networks. To build socially embedded climate resilience, Nigerian and African researchers must deepen inquiry into informal networks and develop inclusive, context-sensitive adaptation and mitigation strategies.
{"title":"Understanding the role of social networks in climate adaptation and mitigation among Nigerian smallholder farmers: A scoping review","authors":"Ayodeji Kehinde , Abosede Ige , Efe Onyeka , Akeem Tijani","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100620","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100620","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change poses a significant threat to the sustainability of smallholder farming systems in Nigeria, intensifying food insecurity, reducing productivity, and weakening rural livelihoods. As a result, adaptive and mitigative responses have become increasingly vital for smallholder farmers. This study employed a scoping review approach to examine how social networks influence the climate adaptation and mitigation strategies of smallholder farmers across Nigeria. A total of 62 empirical studies published between 2000 and 2024 were analyzed to identify methodological trends, conceptual frameworks, network typologies, and research gaps. The review shows a growing body of literature on the topic, with publication output rising steadily, especially after 2010. Most studies were concentrated in the southwestern, north-central, and southeastern regions of Nigeria, with limited research conducted in climate-vulnerable zones such as the northeast. Findings reveal that social networks—both bonding ties (e.g., kinship, community groups) and bridging ties (e.g., NGOs, extension agents)—play critical roles in disseminating information, facilitating innovation adoption, and enabling collective action. However, there remains limited attention to gender, youth inclusion, digital network transformations, and power asymmetries within networks. To build socially embedded climate resilience, Nigerian and African researchers must deepen inquiry into informal networks and develop inclusive, context-sensitive adaptation and mitigation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100620"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145362059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-04DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100617
Zaiwu Gong , Xinrui Guo , Guo Wei , Xinxin Luo , Xiaoxia Xu
As China navigates its path to development, rapid growth has been accompanied by persistent challenges, including a widening wealth gap and urban–rural divide, leaving vulnerable populations in towns and villages particularly at risk of flooding disasters. Faced with extreme weather, emergency plans typically fail to account for special-needs groups. Pinpointing the spatial distribution of vulnerabilities and high-risk flood areas, improving the multi-functionality of emergency shelters, and determining the reasonable layout of shelters pose critical challenges in disaster prevention and mitigation. To address the problem of inefficient rural shelter layouts and insufficient protection for special-needs populations, the pre-requisition system, as a part of the emergency planning framework, provides a novel approach. Through scientific planning and resource pre-allocation, before disasters strike, this system can enhance emergency response efficiency and optimize shelter layouts. This study, within the context of this system, presents a shelter site selection decision-making method that combines bottom-up and top-down approaches, integrating vulnerability identification, diverse needs, emergency evacuation zoning, and shelter layout optimization. Using Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture in Sichuan Province as a case study, real data were analyzed with ArcGIS software to determine optimal shelter placements. The study verified the necessity of considering the varied needs of affected populations and validates the feasibility of the proposed model through a comparative analysis of coverage results. The findings not only provide valuable insights for targeted planning and differentiated resource allocation in rural areas but also offer support for the practical implementation of the pre-requisition system in shelter locations.
{"title":"Flood evacuation shelter location-allocation considering vulnerability identification in the context of pre-requisition","authors":"Zaiwu Gong , Xinrui Guo , Guo Wei , Xinxin Luo , Xiaoxia Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100617","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100617","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As China navigates its path to development, rapid growth has been accompanied by persistent challenges, including a widening wealth gap and urban–rural divide, leaving vulnerable populations in towns and villages particularly at risk of flooding disasters. Faced with extreme weather, emergency plans typically fail to account for special-needs groups. Pinpointing the spatial distribution of vulnerabilities and high-risk flood areas, improving the multi-functionality of emergency shelters, and determining the reasonable layout of shelters pose critical challenges in disaster prevention and mitigation. To address the problem of inefficient rural shelter layouts and insufficient protection for special-needs populations, the pre-requisition system, as a part of the emergency planning framework, provides a novel approach. Through scientific planning and resource pre-allocation, before disasters strike, this system can enhance emergency response efficiency and optimize shelter layouts. This study, within the context of this system, presents a shelter site selection decision-making method that combines bottom-up and top-down approaches, integrating vulnerability identification, diverse needs, emergency evacuation zoning, and shelter layout optimization. Using Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture in Sichuan Province as a case study, real data were analyzed with ArcGIS software to determine optimal shelter placements. The study verified the necessity of considering the varied needs of affected populations and validates the feasibility of the proposed model through a comparative analysis of coverage results. The findings not only provide valuable insights for targeted planning and differentiated resource allocation in rural areas but also offer support for the practical implementation of the pre-requisition system in shelter locations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100617"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145266368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100615
Yong Peng , Qiao Li , Pingan Jiang , Ning Yao , Hongfei Tao , Mahemujiang Aihemaiti
This study used the Thornthwaite method to calculate SPEI. The characteristics of spatiotemporal variations of temperature, precipitation, SPEI, and drought variables were analyzed using methods such as climate inclination rate. The study found that: (1) Spring temperature and growing season precipitation show increase of 0.4 °C and 9.2 mm for every ten years, respectively. The temperature inclination rate gradually increases from the eastern to central regions, while the precipitation inclination rate gradually increases from the southern to northern regions. The SPEI inclination rate gradually increases from the southwest to the northeast. (2) There are differences in abrupt change points in temperature, precipitation, and SPEI, the years of abrupt change points in annual temperature, annual precipitation, and SPEI-12 were 2010, 2015, and 2016, respectively. (3) Light drought occurs in the northeast and western regions, moderate drought in the central and southern regions, severe drought in the eastern and central western regions, and extreme drought in the northeast regions. (4) The drought intensity increases throughout the year and in spring, with an increase of 0.04 and 0.18 for every ten years, respectively, while it decreases during summer, autumn, and growing season, with a decrease of 0.18, 0.14 and 0.03 for every ten years, respectively. The drought intensity throughout the year and in each season is mainly light. The study contributes to a deeper understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in the Tarim River Basin.
{"title":"Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in the Tarim River Basin from 2000 to 2022 based on the SPEI","authors":"Yong Peng , Qiao Li , Pingan Jiang , Ning Yao , Hongfei Tao , Mahemujiang Aihemaiti","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100615","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100615","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study used the Thornthwaite method to calculate SPEI. The characteristics of spatiotemporal variations of temperature, precipitation, SPEI, and drought variables were analyzed using methods such as climate inclination rate. The study found that: (1) Spring temperature and growing season precipitation show increase of 0.4 °C and 9.2 mm for every ten years, respectively. The temperature inclination rate gradually increases from the eastern to central regions, while the precipitation inclination rate gradually increases from the southern to northern regions. The SPEI inclination rate gradually increases from the southwest to the northeast. (2) There are differences in abrupt change points in temperature, precipitation, and SPEI, the years of abrupt change points in annual temperature, annual precipitation, and SPEI-12 were 2010, 2015, and 2016, respectively. (3) Light drought occurs in the northeast and western regions, moderate drought in the central and southern regions, severe drought in the eastern and central western regions, and extreme drought in the northeast regions. (4) The drought intensity increases throughout the year and in spring, with an increase of 0.04 and 0.18 for every ten years, respectively, while it decreases during summer, autumn, and growing season, with a decrease of 0.18, 0.14 and 0.03 for every ten years, respectively. The drought intensity throughout the year and in each season is mainly light. The study contributes to a deeper understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in the Tarim River Basin.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100615"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145220228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-30DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100616
Cyrus Muriithi , Issa Ouedraogo , Obadiah Mwangi
Climate variability challenges smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Farmers need tools to help them adapt, such as climate information services (CIS) to enhance resilience and agricultural productivity. This study investigates farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for seasonal CIS in Senegal’s Sédhiou and Tambacounda regions. The research explores regional differences and the role of socioeconomic, psychological, and gender-related factors. Using a mixed-methods approach, we collected data from 708 farmers through probabilistic random sampling. The Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism was employed to elicit WTP. Regression and mediation analysis were conducted to assess direct and indirect effects on WTP. The findings reveal an average WTP of 1,560 CFA (2.6 USD) for CIS, with 36.7% of farmers bidding above the market price, suggesting strong demand for CIS. Younger farmers and women showed higher WTP. High production costs and limited access to credit reduced bidding amounts. An experimental information intervention significantly increased bid amounts, highlighting the critical role of awareness in shaping demand. Mediation analysis showed that internal locus of control (LoC) does not significantly mediate WTP, suggesting that farmers’ belief in personal control has little impact on their economic decisions. However, restrictive gender norms negatively mediated WTP, underscoring how gender-based constraints reduce demand for CIS. These findings emphasize the need for targeted policies to promote CIS adoption, including awareness campaigns, behavioral and gender-responsive CIS delivery formats, and affordable financial services. By addressing both economic and behavioral barriers, policymakers can improve resilience and agricultural productivity through improved access to climate information.
{"title":"The role of locus of control and restrictive norms on farmers’ willingness to pay for climate information services in Senegal, West Africa","authors":"Cyrus Muriithi , Issa Ouedraogo , Obadiah Mwangi","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100616","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100616","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate variability challenges smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Farmers need tools to help them adapt, such as climate information services (CIS) to enhance resilience and agricultural productivity. This study investigates farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for seasonal CIS in Senegal’s Sédhiou and Tambacounda regions. The research explores regional differences and the role of socioeconomic, psychological, and gender-related factors. Using a mixed-methods approach, we collected data from 708 farmers through probabilistic random sampling. The Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism was employed to elicit WTP. Regression and mediation analysis were conducted to assess direct and indirect effects on WTP. The findings reveal an average WTP of 1,560 CFA (2.6 USD) for CIS, with 36.7% of farmers bidding above the market price, suggesting strong demand for CIS. Younger farmers and women showed higher WTP. High production costs and limited access to credit reduced bidding amounts. An experimental information intervention significantly increased bid amounts, highlighting the critical role of awareness in shaping demand. Mediation analysis showed that internal locus of control (LoC) does not significantly mediate WTP, suggesting that farmers’ belief in personal control has little impact on their economic decisions. However, restrictive gender norms negatively mediated WTP, underscoring how gender-based constraints reduce demand for CIS. These findings emphasize the need for targeted policies to promote CIS adoption, including awareness campaigns, behavioral and gender-responsive CIS delivery formats, and affordable financial services. By addressing both economic and behavioral barriers, policymakers can improve resilience and agricultural productivity through improved access to climate information.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100616"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145220227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-23DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100613
Neha Mittal , Fai Fung , Carol F. McSweeney , Jason A. Lowe
<div><div>The UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) offers tools and data to support understanding of potential future changes in the UK climate. This study examines user perspectives on current climate information products and services in the UK to describe the existing climate services landscape. The primary aim is to gather insights into user views on available climate information and to outline both opportunities and challenges for future development. The analysis intends to inform efforts to make climate information more accessible, relevant, and effective for a broad range of stakeholders involved in climate adaptation and decision-making. The findings highlight the importance of user engagement in building trust, understanding evolving user needs, and driving continual improvements in climate services. Users reported using UKCP18 for various purposes, including understanding climate change, raising awareness, conducting risk assessments, developing adaptation plans, seeking funding, and implementing adaptation strategies. However, the integration of climate information into decision-making remains challenging. Potential users expressed interest in UKCP18 but identified challenges such as data interpretation and understanding caveats. The study also identifies key themes affecting the use of UKCP18, including limited resources, technical expertise, cross-department collaboration, and stakeholder urgency. The study emphasizes the need for improved data access, tools, communication, and training to overcome barriers and enhance the relevance and effectiveness of climate services. By transitioning from assumed demand-relevant to demand-driven climate services, this research aims to meet unmet needs, improve communication, and incorporate user feedback into future climate service development.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>Findings from the User Needs Survey (380 responses) and focus groups (41 participants) on the usability and usefulness of UKCP18 provide valuable insights to guide future climate services development and delivery in the UK. These insights provide avenues for future climate science and climate impacts research along with specific directions for enhancing relevance and effectiveness of future climate information for diverse stakeholders. Such user engagement helps build trust with diverse users, provides a baseline for future longitudinal studies on evolving user needs, and provides a strong rationale for continual climate services improvements.</div><div>Users reported using UKCP to a) understand the process of climate change, b) communicate and raise awareness, c) conduct risk assessments, d) develop adaptation plans, e) seek funding and f) implement adaptation strategies. While understanding and assessing risks dominates the spread of responses, use for adaptation planning and action is limited. This links to a key issue highlighted by users that integrating climate information into decision-making poses a cha
{"title":"Identifying user requirements to inform national climate projections in the UK","authors":"Neha Mittal , Fai Fung , Carol F. McSweeney , Jason A. Lowe","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100613","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100613","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) offers tools and data to support understanding of potential future changes in the UK climate. This study examines user perspectives on current climate information products and services in the UK to describe the existing climate services landscape. The primary aim is to gather insights into user views on available climate information and to outline both opportunities and challenges for future development. The analysis intends to inform efforts to make climate information more accessible, relevant, and effective for a broad range of stakeholders involved in climate adaptation and decision-making. The findings highlight the importance of user engagement in building trust, understanding evolving user needs, and driving continual improvements in climate services. Users reported using UKCP18 for various purposes, including understanding climate change, raising awareness, conducting risk assessments, developing adaptation plans, seeking funding, and implementing adaptation strategies. However, the integration of climate information into decision-making remains challenging. Potential users expressed interest in UKCP18 but identified challenges such as data interpretation and understanding caveats. The study also identifies key themes affecting the use of UKCP18, including limited resources, technical expertise, cross-department collaboration, and stakeholder urgency. The study emphasizes the need for improved data access, tools, communication, and training to overcome barriers and enhance the relevance and effectiveness of climate services. By transitioning from assumed demand-relevant to demand-driven climate services, this research aims to meet unmet needs, improve communication, and incorporate user feedback into future climate service development.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>Findings from the User Needs Survey (380 responses) and focus groups (41 participants) on the usability and usefulness of UKCP18 provide valuable insights to guide future climate services development and delivery in the UK. These insights provide avenues for future climate science and climate impacts research along with specific directions for enhancing relevance and effectiveness of future climate information for diverse stakeholders. Such user engagement helps build trust with diverse users, provides a baseline for future longitudinal studies on evolving user needs, and provides a strong rationale for continual climate services improvements.</div><div>Users reported using UKCP to a) understand the process of climate change, b) communicate and raise awareness, c) conduct risk assessments, d) develop adaptation plans, e) seek funding and f) implement adaptation strategies. While understanding and assessing risks dominates the spread of responses, use for adaptation planning and action is limited. This links to a key issue highlighted by users that integrating climate information into decision-making poses a cha","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100613"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145117940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The rapid intensification of dust storms poses a significant challenge to climate services, forecasting, and early warning systems, with widespread impacts on public health and key sectors like aviation. While a general link between these storms and meteorological depressions is known, the specific dynamic mechanisms that drive their rapid development and make them difficult to predict remain poorly understood. This study addresses this critical gap by providing a detailed synoptic-dynamic analysis of a high-impact dust storm that occurred over North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula from March 15–19, 2017. Utilizing ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data and SEVIRI satellite imagery, we investigated the atmospheric processes that led to the event. The analysis confirms that the storm was initiated by a desert depression that formed in the lee of the Atlas Mountains. The cyclogenesis was fueled by a strong meridional temperature gradient at the lower levels and driven by the advection of positive vorticity and a warm air mass toward the developing depression. Within the region of low-level baroclinicity, the depression’s development was aided by strong low-level winds. These conditions intensified winds, which, coupled with a direct transverse circulation, triggered significant dust mobilization and vertical mixing. These findings directly contribute to the improvement of climate services that were introduced into the region by identifying the key dynamical precursors that could be used as more reliable indicators of imminent, high-impact dust events. This research demonstrates how a better understanding of the formation processes of desert depressions can enhance the accuracy and lead time of operational forecasts, ultimately leading to more effective early warning systems.
{"title":"Dust distribution and transport associated with a desert depression","authors":"Motirh Al-Mutairi , Abdulhaleem Labban , Abdallah Abdeldym , Amgad Saber , Heshmat Abdel Basset , Mohamed Eid","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100614","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100614","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid intensification of dust storms poses a significant challenge to climate services, forecasting, and early warning systems, with widespread impacts on public health and key sectors like aviation. While a general link between these storms and meteorological depressions is known, the specific dynamic mechanisms that drive their rapid development and make them difficult to predict remain poorly understood. This study addresses this critical gap by providing a detailed synoptic-dynamic analysis of a high-impact dust storm that occurred over North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula from March 15–19, 2017. Utilizing ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data and SEVIRI satellite imagery, we investigated the atmospheric processes that led to the event. The analysis confirms that the storm was initiated by a desert depression that formed in the lee of the Atlas Mountains. The cyclogenesis was fueled by a strong meridional temperature gradient at the lower levels and driven by the advection of positive vorticity and a warm air mass toward the developing depression. Within the region of low-level baroclinicity, the depression’s development was aided by strong low-level winds. These conditions intensified winds, which, coupled with a direct transverse circulation, triggered significant dust mobilization and vertical mixing. These findings directly contribute to the improvement of climate services that were introduced into the region by identifying the key dynamical precursors that could be used as more reliable indicators of imminent, high-impact dust events. This research demonstrates how a better understanding of the formation processes of desert depressions can enhance the accuracy and lead time of operational forecasts, ultimately leading to more effective early warning systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100614"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145108983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-22DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100610
Jacob D. Tafrate, Kelsey E. Nyland
Rapid Arctic warming triggering natural hazards necessitates new climate risk and social impact tracking. During a series of interviews, mayors of Fairbanks, Alaska; Yellowknife, Canada; and Luleå Sweden identified the need for climate monitoring tools focused on urban Arctic environments. In response, this paper introduces the Arctic Climate Threat Indicator Set (ArCTISt) as a series of nine indicators and accompanying codes for Arctic municipal use. Four climate themes were incorporated into ArCTISt after identification as most relevant to constituent and municipal planning concerns by mayors: (1) extreme temperature variation, (2) extreme precipitation events, (3) wildfire risk, and (4) permafrost thaw. This study demonstrates an example use case, applying station records and projections from the World Climate Research Program’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to project urban Arctic climate changes. ArCTISt first constructs a multi-model ensemble for each city, combining identified top-performing models and evaluating their ability to simulate city-specific seasonal patterns. Indicator results are then calculated using station and model inputs for a historical period (1981–2010) and future projections up to 2100. Findings indicate over 40 new heat wave days per year in all cities, intensifying precipitation in Fairbanks and Luleå, increasing wildfire risk, and intensified permafrost thaw potential in Fairbanks and Yellowknife under high emissions scenarios. Using these indicators, Arctic cities can better determine the most significant environmental challenges for municipal planning. Unlike other sustainability indicators requiring significant data collection and analysis, ArCTISt builds easily interpretable future scenarios and accompanying graphics designed for constituent communication and funding initiatives.
{"title":"Arctic Climate Threat Indicator Set for Municipal Decision-Making","authors":"Jacob D. Tafrate, Kelsey E. Nyland","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100610","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100610","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid Arctic warming triggering natural hazards necessitates new climate risk and social impact tracking. During a series of interviews, mayors of Fairbanks, Alaska; Yellowknife, Canada; and Luleå Sweden identified the need for climate monitoring tools focused on urban Arctic environments. In response, this paper introduces the Arctic Climate Threat Indicator Set (ArCTISt) as a series of nine indicators and accompanying codes for Arctic municipal use. Four climate themes were incorporated into ArCTISt after identification as most relevant to constituent and municipal planning concerns by mayors: (1) extreme temperature variation, (2) extreme precipitation events, (3) wildfire risk, and (4) permafrost thaw. This study demonstrates an example use case, applying station records and projections from the World Climate Research Program’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to project urban Arctic climate changes. ArCTISt first constructs a multi-model ensemble for each city, combining identified top-performing models and evaluating their ability to simulate city-specific seasonal patterns. Indicator results are then calculated using station and model inputs for a historical period (1981–2010) and future projections up to 2100. Findings indicate over 40 new heat wave days per year in all cities, intensifying precipitation in Fairbanks and Luleå, increasing wildfire risk, and intensified permafrost thaw potential in Fairbanks and Yellowknife under high emissions scenarios. Using these indicators, Arctic cities can better determine the most significant environmental challenges for municipal planning. Unlike other sustainability indicators requiring significant data collection and analysis, ArCTISt builds easily interpretable future scenarios and accompanying graphics designed for constituent communication and funding initiatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100610"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145109634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-20DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100612
Muhammad Aamir Shahzad , Xu Zhao , Jin Zhang , Mehwish Rasheed , Shengze Qin
Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to floods which severely affect millions of people and create food instability and obstruct livelihoods with marginalized rural communities are most at risk due to poor resources and adaptive capability. Strengthening household-level strategies is critical for enhancing community resilience. This study aims to identify the adoption of flood resilience strategies, the role of digitalization and assess their impact on food instability and livelihood resilience in marginalized rural communities using multivariate probit model and propensity score matching techniques. This uses data from 384 households, collected through multistage sampling methods. Findings indicate that most households lack digitalization services and effective early warning mechanisms; however, they adopt mitigation measures that enhance livelihoods and food stability. For instance, migration is associated with larger landholdings, while mixed farming and diversified occupations increase livestock ownership, resource mobilization, and dietary diversity, although cereal-based diets remain predominant. Gender imbalances and sociodemographic factors significantly influence flood coping strategies and community livelihood resilience. This study suggests that policy measures should expand digital infrastructure and early warning systems, address gender inequalities, and promote diversified livelihoods. Locally tailored adaptation strategies, coupled with dietary diversification, are essential for sustainable flood resilience and long-term food security.
{"title":"Livelihood resilience and digitalization: Food security strategies for marginalized rural communities affected by floods in Pakistan","authors":"Muhammad Aamir Shahzad , Xu Zhao , Jin Zhang , Mehwish Rasheed , Shengze Qin","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100612","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100612","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to floods which severely affect millions of people and create food instability and obstruct livelihoods with marginalized rural communities are most at risk due to poor resources and adaptive capability. Strengthening household-level strategies is critical for enhancing community resilience. This study aims to identify the adoption of flood resilience strategies, the role of digitalization and assess their impact on food instability and livelihood resilience in marginalized rural communities using multivariate probit model and propensity score matching techniques. This uses data from 384 households, collected through multistage sampling methods. Findings indicate that most households lack digitalization services and effective early warning mechanisms; however, they adopt mitigation measures that enhance livelihoods and food stability. For instance, migration is associated with larger landholdings, while mixed farming and diversified occupations increase livestock ownership, resource mobilization, and dietary diversity, although cereal-based diets remain predominant. Gender imbalances and sociodemographic factors significantly influence flood coping strategies and community livelihood resilience. This study suggests that policy measures should expand digital infrastructure and early warning systems, address gender inequalities, and promote diversified livelihoods. Locally tailored adaptation strategies, coupled with dietary diversification, are essential for sustainable flood resilience and long-term food security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100612"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145095628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate information services (CIS) are essential for the agricultural sector, empowering farmers to effectively adapt to climate-induced challenges and make informed decisions. This study explored the status of CIS and utilization among smallholder farmers in Sidama region, Ethiopia. Data was collected through household surveys, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and field observation. Multi-stage sampling techniques were applied and purposefully selected three woredas (districts), from three different agroecological zones. 384 households were selected using a systematic random sampling. Data analysis was conducted using descriptive, qualitative analysis, chi-square tests, and a binary logistic regression model. The results indicated a moderate status of know-how and access to CIS with 50.8% of farmers having access to the CIS, of which only 33.9% actively utilized the information. The primary sources for CIS are agricultural extension officers, radio, television, mobile phones, peer farmers, and village leaders. In the Low lands (39.6%), midland (36.9%), and highland only 18.9% of the sample households utilized the services. The low landers where moisture stress is significant, farmers are more interested in utilizing CIS comparatively. The result also proves that the most prominent factors hindering the utilization of CIS are farmers’ education level, farm size, availability of credit, access to extension services, and absence of social protection services, income level, market access, and trust in the provided information. To enhance productivity, stakeholders including local and regional governments and agricultural extension services in collaboration with meteorological service providers should focus on improving the availability, accessibility, reliability, and utilization of CIS.
{"title":"Climate information services and its determinants among smallholder farmers in Sidama Region, southern Ethiopia","authors":"Mamuye Belihu , Tafesse Matewos , Kereyu Kebede , Tirfu Kakiso","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100611","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100611","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate information services (CIS) are essential for the agricultural sector, empowering farmers to effectively adapt to climate-induced challenges and make informed decisions. This study explored the status of CIS and utilization among smallholder farmers in Sidama region, Ethiopia. Data was collected through household surveys, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and field observation. Multi-stage sampling techniques were applied and purposefully selected three woredas (districts), from three different agroecological zones. 384 households were selected using a systematic random sampling. Data analysis was conducted using descriptive, qualitative analysis, chi-square tests, and a binary logistic regression model. The results indicated a moderate status of know-how and access to CIS with 50.8% of farmers having access to the CIS, of which only 33.9% actively utilized the information. The primary sources for CIS are agricultural extension officers, radio, television, mobile phones, peer farmers, and village leaders. In the Low lands (39.6%), midland (36.9%), and highland only 18.9% of the sample households utilized the services. The low landers where moisture stress is significant, farmers are more interested in utilizing CIS comparatively. The result also proves that the most prominent factors hindering the utilization of CIS are farmers’ education level, farm size, availability of credit, access to extension services, and absence of social protection services, income level, market access, and trust in the provided information. To enhance productivity, stakeholders including local and regional governments and agricultural extension services in collaboration with meteorological service providers should focus on improving the availability, accessibility, reliability, and utilization of CIS.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100611"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145095627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-16DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100609
Salit Chakma , Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah , Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan , Md Saqib Shahriar , Mohammad Al Masum Molla , Quazi K. Hassan , Ashraf Dewan
<div><div>Heatwaves (HWs) are escalating in frequency and intensity, posing serious risks to human health, agriculture, and infrastructure worldwide. However, the lack of a universally accepted definition of HWs complicates consistent characterization across regions. In Bangladesh, a subtropical country increasingly vulnerable to extreme heat, the dynamics of HWs remain insufficiently understood. This study aims to bridge that knowledge gap by analyzing three decades of observational data to characterize HWs in Bangladesh, using ambient and apparent temperature metrics. Five HW indices were employed to assess 24-hour (EHF), daytime (CTX90pct, TX90), and nocturnal (CTN90pct, TN90) HW patterns, with humidity effects incorporated through apparent temperature-based indices. HWs were defined as events lasting at least three consecutive days, reflecting the heightened health risks of prolonged exposure. HWs were evaluated in terms of frequency, duration, intensity, and early onset patterns. Station-based observations were compared against corresponding estimates derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. The 90<sup>th</sup> percentile of daily temperature emerged as a robust operational threshold for HW characterization in Bangladesh. Declines in temperature variability during HW events were linked to reduced intensities for indices sensitive to short-term variability or independent of seasonality. Humidity exerted a stronger influence on nocturnal HWs than on daytime events, while seasonal variations in temperature and humidity during the pre- and post-monsoon periods significantly shaped HW characteristics. These findings provide new insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of HWs in Bangladesh, offering an evidence base to inform adaptation strategies in other subtropical regions facing similar climate threats.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>This study provides critical insights into the growing challenges of HWs in Bangladesh, highlighting their increasing frequency, duration, intensity, and earlier onset. The findings underscore the importance of adopting the 90<sup>th</sup> percentile of daily temperature as a reliable threshold for HW characterization, tailored to Bangladesh’s subtropical climate. The study reveals distinct regional and seasonal patterns, with coastal areas experiencing prolonged HWs and humidity-driven nocturnal events, which significantly disrupt nighttime recovery and productivity. Policymakers can leverage these insights to develop localized mitigation strategies, such as early warning systems, urban heat management plans, and infrastructure adaptations to reduce HW impacts. The results emphasize the role of humidity in intensifying heat stress, calling for integrated approaches that consider both ambient temperature and apparent temperature metrics in HW assessments. Furthermore, the methodology used in this study is transferable to other similar climatic contexts, making the results valuable for informing pol
{"title":"Unveiling heatwave events in Bangladesh: Insights from observational records and ERA5 reanalysis data","authors":"Salit Chakma , Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah , Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan , Md Saqib Shahriar , Mohammad Al Masum Molla , Quazi K. Hassan , Ashraf Dewan","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100609","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100609","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heatwaves (HWs) are escalating in frequency and intensity, posing serious risks to human health, agriculture, and infrastructure worldwide. However, the lack of a universally accepted definition of HWs complicates consistent characterization across regions. In Bangladesh, a subtropical country increasingly vulnerable to extreme heat, the dynamics of HWs remain insufficiently understood. This study aims to bridge that knowledge gap by analyzing three decades of observational data to characterize HWs in Bangladesh, using ambient and apparent temperature metrics. Five HW indices were employed to assess 24-hour (EHF), daytime (CTX90pct, TX90), and nocturnal (CTN90pct, TN90) HW patterns, with humidity effects incorporated through apparent temperature-based indices. HWs were defined as events lasting at least three consecutive days, reflecting the heightened health risks of prolonged exposure. HWs were evaluated in terms of frequency, duration, intensity, and early onset patterns. Station-based observations were compared against corresponding estimates derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. The 90<sup>th</sup> percentile of daily temperature emerged as a robust operational threshold for HW characterization in Bangladesh. Declines in temperature variability during HW events were linked to reduced intensities for indices sensitive to short-term variability or independent of seasonality. Humidity exerted a stronger influence on nocturnal HWs than on daytime events, while seasonal variations in temperature and humidity during the pre- and post-monsoon periods significantly shaped HW characteristics. These findings provide new insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of HWs in Bangladesh, offering an evidence base to inform adaptation strategies in other subtropical regions facing similar climate threats.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>This study provides critical insights into the growing challenges of HWs in Bangladesh, highlighting their increasing frequency, duration, intensity, and earlier onset. The findings underscore the importance of adopting the 90<sup>th</sup> percentile of daily temperature as a reliable threshold for HW characterization, tailored to Bangladesh’s subtropical climate. The study reveals distinct regional and seasonal patterns, with coastal areas experiencing prolonged HWs and humidity-driven nocturnal events, which significantly disrupt nighttime recovery and productivity. Policymakers can leverage these insights to develop localized mitigation strategies, such as early warning systems, urban heat management plans, and infrastructure adaptations to reduce HW impacts. The results emphasize the role of humidity in intensifying heat stress, calling for integrated approaches that consider both ambient temperature and apparent temperature metrics in HW assessments. Furthermore, the methodology used in this study is transferable to other similar climatic contexts, making the results valuable for informing pol","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100609"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145095708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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