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Crop choice advisory for the West African Sudan Savanna based on soil type and presowing rainfall forecasts: A machine learning residual model approach 基于土壤类型和播种前降雨预测的西非苏丹大草原作物选择咨询:机器学习残差模型方法
IF 4.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100605
Toshichika Iizumi , Kohtaro Iseki , Kenta Ikazaki , Toru Sakai , Shintaro Kobayashi , Benoit Joseph Batieno
Crop choice is a critical decision for rainfed smallholder farmers when allocating land between food and cash crops. To inform crop choice, process-based models need to simulate yield responses that are both eco-physiologically plausible and quantitatively accurate. Achieving this is difficult when data quality and scarcity hinder model calibration. Here, we present a modification of a process model simulation performed using a machine learning residual model trained to predict the error in the process model-simulated yields, relative to field experimental data, from growing conditions. Using the random forest (RF) algorithm, residual models were developed for cowpea, groundnut, soybean, maize, millet, and sorghum cultivated at three locations in Burkina Faso. The RF residual models improved the agreement between the process model simulations and the field data while preserving plausible crop-specific rainfall–yield relationships and their variation across soil types with differing water retention or drainage capacities (i.e., Lixisols and Plinthosols). Subsequently, process model simulations for 1994–2023 were adjusted using the RF residual models. The findings showed that the better performing crops varied with respect to soil type and seasonal rainfall. However, the utility of presowing rainfall forecasts for dynamic crop choice was limited by relatively high miss rates. The proposed crop choice advisory is expected to increase the income and nutrient status of smallholder farmers in dryland regions of West Africa under rainfall variability.
在粮食作物和经济作物之间分配土地时,作物选择是雨养小农的一个关键决定。为了为作物选择提供信息,基于过程的模型需要模拟既在生态生理学上合理又在数量上准确的产量响应。当数据质量和稀缺性阻碍模型校准时,实现这一点是困难的。在这里,我们提出了一个过程模型模拟的修改,使用机器学习残差模型进行训练,以预测过程模型模拟产量的误差,相对于田间实验数据,从生长条件。利用随机森林(RF)算法,对布基纳法索三个地点种植的豇豆、花生、大豆、玉米、小米和高粱建立残差模型。RF残差模型改进了过程模型模拟与田间数据之间的一致性,同时保留了似是而非的作物特定降雨量-产量关系及其在不同保水或排水能力的土壤类型(即Lixisols和Plinthosols)之间的变化。随后,利用RF残差模型对1994-2023年的过程模型模拟进行了调整。结果表明,不同土壤类型和季节降雨对作物的影响不同。然而,播前降雨预报对动态作物选择的效用受到相对较高的失误率的限制。拟议的作物选择咨询预计将在降雨变化的情况下增加西非干旱地区小农的收入和营养状况。
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引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in the Tarim River Basin from 2000 to 2022 based on the SPEI 基于SPEI的2000 - 2022年塔里木河流域干旱时空特征
IF 4.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100615
Yong Peng , Qiao Li , Pingan Jiang , Ning Yao , Hongfei Tao , Mahemujiang Aihemaiti
This study used the Thornthwaite method to calculate SPEI. The characteristics of spatiotemporal variations of temperature, precipitation, SPEI, and drought variables were analyzed using methods such as climate inclination rate. The study found that: (1) Spring temperature and growing season precipitation show increase of 0.4 °C and 9.2 mm for every ten years, respectively. The temperature inclination rate gradually increases from the eastern to central regions, while the precipitation inclination rate gradually increases from the southern to northern regions. The SPEI inclination rate gradually increases from the southwest to the northeast. (2) There are differences in abrupt change points in temperature, precipitation, and SPEI, the years of abrupt change points in annual temperature, annual precipitation, and SPEI-12 were 2010, 2015, and 2016, respectively. (3) Light drought occurs in the northeast and western regions, moderate drought in the central and southern regions, severe drought in the eastern and central western regions, and extreme drought in the northeast regions. (4) The drought intensity increases throughout the year and in spring, with an increase of 0.04 and 0.18 for every ten years, respectively, while it decreases during summer, autumn, and growing season, with a decrease of 0.18, 0.14 and 0.03 for every ten years, respectively. The drought intensity throughout the year and in each season is mainly light. The study contributes to a deeper understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in the Tarim River Basin.
本研究采用Thornthwaite方法计算SPEI。利用气候倾斜率等方法分析了温度、降水、SPEI和干旱等变量的时空变化特征。研究发现:(1)春季气温和生长期降水每10年分别增加0.4°C和9.2 mm。气温倾向率从东部到中部逐渐增大,降水倾向率从南部到北部逐渐增大。SPEI倾斜率由西南向东北逐渐增大。(2)气温、降水和SPEI的突变点存在差异,年气温、年降水和SPEI-12的突变点年份分别为2010年、2015年和2016年。③东北和西部地区为轻度干旱,中部和南部地区为中度干旱,东部和中西部地区为重度干旱,东北部地区为极端干旱。(4)干旱强度在全年和春季呈增加趋势,每10年分别增加0.04和0.18,在夏季、秋季和生长期呈减少趋势,每10年分别减少0.18、0.14和0.03。全年和各季节干旱强度以轻度为主。该研究有助于加深对塔里木河流域干旱时空特征的认识。
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引用次数: 0
A grid-scale assessment framework for heat health risks: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China 热健康风险网格尺度评价框架——以京津冀地区为例
IF 4.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100603
Jiaqi Guo , Linlin Lu , Fukang Zha , Ilias Agathangelidis , Yu Yao , Qingting Li , Qian Shen , Zilu Li
The increasing frequency of extreme heat events has resulted in severe and widespread global impacts. Comprehensive heat risk assessment is crucial for providing targeted climate information and services to enhance cities’ adaptation and mitigation capacities. However, the spatial resolution of administrative-level heat health risk assessments is inadequate for identifying intra-urban risk variations. This study developed a risk assessment framework for heat-related health risks integrating hazard, exposure, susceptibility, and adaptability factors. Utilizing geospatial data such as downscaled land surface temperature, gridded socioeconomic data and point of interest data, the heat health risks were evaluated comprehensively at a fine-grained 500-meter grid resolution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China. The results indicated that high-risk profiles were concentrated in the primary urban areas of Beijing and Tianjin. Analysis of Local Climate Zone (LCZ) classifications revealed distinct heat risk patterns across urban morphologies. Compact high-rise built zones (LCZ 1) showed the highest mean heat hazard index (0.82), while natural-type LCZ B areas exhibited the lowest (0.48). LCZ 1 (0.68) and LCZ 2 (0.67) represented the highest heat risk, followed by LCZ 4 (0.60) and LCZ 5 (0.57). To mitigate heat risks, priority measures for reducing ambient temperature and population density should be implemented in LCZs 1 and 2 regions, while LCZs 3, 4, and 5 should prioritize enhancements to healthcare and transportation infrastructure. These fine-scale risk assessment approaches effectively capture local-scale risk hotspots, providing actionable insights for improving heat governance practices and building more thermally resilient cities.
极端高温事件日益频繁,造成了严重和广泛的全球影响。综合热风险评估对于提供有针对性的气候信息和服务以增强城市适应和减缓能力至关重要。然而,行政层面的热健康风险评估的空间分辨率不足以识别城市内部的风险变化。本研究建立了一个综合危害、暴露、易感性和适应性因素的热相关健康风险评估框架。利用缩小尺度的地表温度、网格化的社会经济数据和兴趣点数据等地理空间数据,在500米网格分辨率下对京津冀地区的热健康风险进行了综合评估。结果表明,北京和天津主要城区为高危区;局部气候带(LCZ)分类分析揭示了不同城市形态的不同热风险模式。紧凑高层建成区(lcz1)的平均热危害指数最高(0.82),自然型lczb区最低(0.48)。LCZ 1(0.68)和LCZ 2(0.67)的热风险最高,LCZ 4(0.60)和LCZ 5(0.57)次之。为降低热风险,应优先在lccs 1和2区域实施降低环境温度和人口密度的措施,而lccs 3、4和5区域应优先加强医疗和交通基础设施。这些精细规模的风险评估方法有效地捕捉了地方规模的风险热点,为改善热治理实践和建设更具热弹性的城市提供了可操作的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Bridging the usability gap: Enhancing climate risk communication through E-newsletter 缩小可用性差距:通过电子通讯加强气候风险沟通
IF 4.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100624
Deepika Swami , Devanathan Parthasarathy , Kamlesh Yagnik , Panagiotis Karamanos
Despite advancements in climate warning systems, significant “usability gaps” persist in translating scientific information into actionable insights for policymakers and local communities. These gaps arise from discrepancies between what scientists provide and what end-users find applicable for decision-making. This study aims to bridge these gaps by developing an E-newsletter, which is conceived as an educational and informational decision-support tool that links climate scientists and meteorologists (senders) with government and non-government decision-makers (primary recipients) to support the development of locally relevant adaptation and mitigation policies. A key enhancement to the framework is the explicit integration of “Access” as a core dimension alongside usability and relevance. This recognizes infrastructural, connectivity, and literacy barriers that can limit the engagement with climate information. The research proposes multi-modal dissemination strategies to overcome these limitations, enabling benefits to both primary and secondary audiences. For this, we conducted a survey of 111 officials across diverse government and non-government sectors in 17 cities and 20 states of India. The survey explored: a) their understanding of climate risks in their regions and sectors; b) the type of information needed to design effective mitigation and adaptation plans; c) their evaluation of existing communication channels (e.g., newsletters) based on content, quality, timeliness, effectiveness, and usability; and d) their preferences for the design and content of E-newsletters tailored to support risk mitigation and adaptation.
Findings revealed a strong preference for E-newsletters featuring regional case studies, content in regional languages, and visual aids such as images, graphs, and figures. Based on these insights, we developed an E-newsletter template, with special emphasis on layout, design, and key features. It can enhance the usability of climate information, aiding regional and local-scale mitigation, adaptation, and risk reduction efforts.
尽管气候预警系统取得了进步,但在将科学信息转化为决策者和当地社区的可操作见解方面,仍然存在重大的“可用性差距”。这些差距源于科学家提供的信息和最终用户认为适用于决策的信息之间的差异。本研究旨在通过编写一份电子通讯来弥合这些差距,该通讯被设想为一种教育和信息决策支持工具,将气候科学家和气象学家(发送者)与政府和非政府决策者(主要接收者)联系起来,以支持制定与当地相关的适应和缓解政策。该框架的一个关键增强是将“访问”与可用性和相关性一起明确集成为核心维度。这承认基础设施、连通性和识字障碍可能限制人们接触气候信息。本研究提出了多模式传播策略来克服这些限制,使初级和次级受众都能受益。为此,我们对印度17个城市和20个邦的111名不同政府和非政府部门的官员进行了调查。调查探讨了:a)他们对所在地区和行业的气候风险的理解;B)设计有效的缓解和适应计划所需的信息类型;C)基于内容、质量、及时性、有效性和可用性对现有沟通渠道(如通讯)的评价;d)他们对为支持减轻和适应风险而量身定制的电子通讯的设计和内容的偏好。调查结果显示,人们对以地区案例研究、地区语言内容以及图像、图表和数字等视觉辅助工具为特色的电子通讯有强烈的偏好。基于这些见解,我们开发了一个电子通讯模板,特别强调布局、设计和关键功能。它可以提高气候信息的可用性,帮助区域和地方层面的减缓、适应和减少风险的努力。
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引用次数: 0
Debris flow risk characteristics and potential spatial mitigation strategies under extreme rainfall events 极端降雨事件下的泥石流风险特征和潜在的空间缓解策略
IF 4.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100618
Tzu-Ling Chen , Yu-Hsuan Wu , Yin-Hao Chiu
This study examines the vulnerability of regions prone to debris flow disasters in Taiwan, focusing on the intersection of environmental, socioeconomic, and adaptive capacity factors. Using a composite vulnerability index based on exposure, sensitivity, and resilience, we integrate data from multiple sources to assess the regional risks posed by extreme rainfall events and landslide susceptibility. The study emphasizes the importance of location-specific vulnerability factors, including topography, land use, and infrastructure, in understanding the spatial distribution of disaster risks. By applying principal component analysis (PCA), the research identifies key components of potential impact and adaptation capacity, providing a nuanced understanding of disaster resilience. Empirical analysis is conducted in Nantou County, a region heavily impacted by debris flow events due to its role as a headwater for several major rivers in Taiwan. The study finds that areas with high exposure to rainfall and slope hazards, coupled with low adaptive capacity, are at significant risk of increased disaster losses. The findings highlight the urgent need for targeted disaster management policies, including enhanced infrastructure, community mobilization, and resource allocation in vulnerable regions. This research contributes to the growing body of knowledge on regional vulnerability assessments and provides a foundation for more effective disaster risk management and climate adaptation strategies.
本研究探讨台湾泥石流易发地区的脆弱性,重点探讨环境因素、社会经济因素和适应能力因素的交集。利用基于暴露、敏感性和恢复力的复合脆弱性指数,我们整合了来自多个来源的数据,以评估极端降雨事件和滑坡易感性所带来的区域风险。该研究强调了特定地点的脆弱性因素,包括地形、土地利用和基础设施,在了解灾害风险的空间分布方面的重要性。通过应用主成分分析(PCA),该研究确定了潜在影响和适应能力的关键组成部分,提供了对灾害恢复能力的细致理解。实证分析以南投县为例,南投县是台湾几条主要河流的源头,受泥石流事件影响较大。该研究发现,受降雨和斜坡灾害影响较大的地区,加上适应能力较低,面临着灾害损失增加的重大风险。研究结果强调,迫切需要制定有针对性的灾害管理政策,包括加强基础设施建设、社区动员和脆弱地区的资源分配。这项研究有助于增加区域脆弱性评估的知识体系,并为更有效的灾害风险管理和气候适应战略提供基础。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding the role of social networks in climate adaptation and mitigation among Nigerian smallholder farmers: A scoping review 了解社会网络在尼日利亚小农中适应和缓解气候变化中的作用:范围审查
IF 4.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100620
Ayodeji Kehinde , Abosede Ige , Efe Onyeka , Akeem Tijani
Climate change poses a significant threat to the sustainability of smallholder farming systems in Nigeria, intensifying food insecurity, reducing productivity, and weakening rural livelihoods. As a result, adaptive and mitigative responses have become increasingly vital for smallholder farmers. This study employed a scoping review approach to examine how social networks influence the climate adaptation and mitigation strategies of smallholder farmers across Nigeria. A total of 62 empirical studies published between 2000 and 2024 were analyzed to identify methodological trends, conceptual frameworks, network typologies, and research gaps. The review shows a growing body of literature on the topic, with publication output rising steadily, especially after 2010. Most studies were concentrated in the southwestern, north-central, and southeastern regions of Nigeria, with limited research conducted in climate-vulnerable zones such as the northeast. Findings reveal that social networks—both bonding ties (e.g., kinship, community groups) and bridging ties (e.g., NGOs, extension agents)—play critical roles in disseminating information, facilitating innovation adoption, and enabling collective action. However, there remains limited attention to gender, youth inclusion, digital network transformations, and power asymmetries within networks. To build socially embedded climate resilience, Nigerian and African researchers must deepen inquiry into informal networks and develop inclusive, context-sensitive adaptation and mitigation strategies.
气候变化对尼日利亚小农农业系统的可持续性构成重大威胁,加剧了粮食不安全,降低了生产力,削弱了农村生计。因此,适应性和缓解性应对措施对小农来说变得越来越重要。本研究采用范围审查方法,考察社会网络如何影响尼日利亚各地小农的气候适应和减缓战略。本文对2000年至2024年间发表的62项实证研究进行了分析,以确定方法趋势、概念框架、网络类型和研究差距。该综述显示,关于这一主题的文献越来越多,出版物数量稳步上升,尤其是在2010年之后。大多数研究集中在尼日利亚的西南部、中北部和东南部地区,在东北部等气候脆弱地区进行了有限的研究。研究结果表明,社会网络——包括纽带关系(如亲属关系、社区团体)和桥梁关系(如非政府组织、推广机构)——在传播信息、促进创新采用和实现集体行动方面发挥着关键作用。然而,对性别、青年包容、数字网络转型和网络内部权力不对称的关注仍然有限。为了建立根植于社会的气候适应能力,尼日利亚和非洲的研究人员必须深化对非正式网络的研究,并制定包容的、对环境敏感的适应和减缓战略。
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引用次数: 0
Identifying user requirements to inform national climate projections in the UK 确定用户需求,为英国国家气候预测提供信息
IF 4.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100613
Neha Mittal , Fai Fung , Carol F. McSweeney , Jason A. Lowe
<div><div>The UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) offers tools and data to support understanding of potential future changes in the UK climate. This study examines user perspectives on current climate information products and services in the UK to describe the existing climate services landscape. The primary aim is to gather insights into user views on available climate information and to outline both opportunities and challenges for future development. The analysis intends to inform efforts to make climate information more accessible, relevant, and effective for a broad range of stakeholders involved in climate adaptation and decision-making. The findings highlight the importance of user engagement in building trust, understanding evolving user needs, and driving continual improvements in climate services. Users reported using UKCP18 for various purposes, including understanding climate change, raising awareness, conducting risk assessments, developing adaptation plans, seeking funding, and implementing adaptation strategies. However, the integration of climate information into decision-making remains challenging. Potential users expressed interest in UKCP18 but identified challenges such as data interpretation and understanding caveats. The study also identifies key themes affecting the use of UKCP18, including limited resources, technical expertise, cross-department collaboration, and stakeholder urgency. The study emphasizes the need for improved data access, tools, communication, and training to overcome barriers and enhance the relevance and effectiveness of climate services. By transitioning from assumed demand-relevant to demand-driven climate services, this research aims to meet unmet needs, improve communication, and incorporate user feedback into future climate service development.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>Findings from the User Needs Survey (380 responses) and focus groups (41 participants) on the usability and usefulness of UKCP18 provide valuable insights to guide future climate services development and delivery in the UK. These insights provide avenues for future climate science and climate impacts research along with specific directions for enhancing relevance and effectiveness of future climate information for diverse stakeholders. Such user engagement helps build trust with diverse users, provides a baseline for future longitudinal studies on evolving user needs, and provides a strong rationale for continual climate services improvements.</div><div>Users reported using UKCP to a) understand the process of climate change, b) communicate and raise awareness, c) conduct risk assessments, d) develop adaptation plans, e) seek funding and f) implement adaptation strategies. While understanding and assessing risks dominates the spread of responses, use for adaptation planning and action is limited. This links to a key issue highlighted by users that integrating climate information into decision-making poses a cha
英国气候预测(UKCP18)提供了工具和数据来支持对英国气候未来潜在变化的理解。本研究考察了英国用户对当前气候信息产品和服务的看法,以描述现有的气候服务景观。主要目的是收集用户对现有气候信息的看法,并概述未来发展的机遇和挑战。该分析旨在为使参与气候适应和决策的广泛利益攸关方更容易获取、更相关和更有效的气候信息提供信息。研究结果强调了用户参与在建立信任、了解不断变化的用户需求和推动气候服务持续改进方面的重要性。用户报告将UKCP18用于各种目的,包括了解气候变化、提高认识、进行风险评估、制定适应计划、寻求资金和实施适应战略。然而,将气候信息整合到决策中仍然具有挑战性。潜在用户表达了对UKCP18的兴趣,但发现了数据解释和理解警告等挑战。该研究还确定了影响UKCP18使用的关键主题,包括有限的资源、技术专长、跨部门合作和利益相关者的紧迫性。该研究强调需要改善数据获取、工具、沟通和培训,以克服障碍,增强气候服务的相关性和有效性。通过从假定的需求相关气候服务向需求驱动气候服务的转变,本研究旨在满足未被满足的需求,改善沟通,并将用户反馈纳入未来的气候服务发展。用户需求调查(380份回复)和焦点小组(41名参与者)对UKCP18的可用性和有用性的调查结果为指导英国未来气候服务的发展和交付提供了有价值的见解。这些见解为未来气候科学和气候影响研究提供了途径,并为不同利益相关者提高未来气候信息的相关性和有效性提供了具体方向。这种用户参与有助于与不同的用户建立信任,为未来对不断变化的用户需求进行纵向研究提供基线,并为持续改进气候服务提供强有力的理由。用户报告使用UKCP是为了a)了解气候变化的过程,b)沟通和提高认识,c)进行风险评估,d)制定适应计划,e)寻求资金和f)实施适应战略。虽然了解和评估风险主导着应对措施的传播,但对适应规划和行动的利用是有限的。这与用户强调的一个关键问题有关,即当“那又怎样”的问题没有得到充分解决时,将气候信息整合到决策中会带来挑战。除了自给自足或中间用户外,潜在用户(n = 33)参与调查的意愿表明,人们对使用UKCP气候信息的兴趣越来越大。潜在用户强调了在解释数据、理解警告和定位信息方面的挑战。它们表明人们更倾向于使用交互式工具,比如英国气象局灾害管理软件(Met Office Hazard Manager),该软件可以将空间地图与气候数据、影响和可能性相关信息叠加在一起。用户反映了与他们的组织有关并影响他们使用UKCP气候信息能力的挑战。主要主题包括:有限的资源和技术专长,对数据及其潜在用途的理解不足,缺乏跨部门或组织合作来共享研究和数据,以及由于气候变化被认为是“未来的问题”,利益相关者之间缺乏紧迫感。这表明,要使气候服务得到采用和有效,还需要解决用户层面的挑战。信息提供者构成了仅次于学术界和研究界的第二大受访者群体,并在气候服务生态系统中发挥着重要作用。他们目前通过将气候信息转化为支持决策需求的指南、提高认识的材料、定制产品和服务,为一系列用户提供支持。随着对未来气候信息需求的增加,它们可以在扩大气候服务规模以应对不同目的和背景方面发挥关键作用。使用气候信息的目的和决策背景对用户所认为的相关时间范围有很大影响,时间范围从季节性到300年和数千年不等。在某些情况下,多个时间范围是相关的,例如能源部门需要10-100年范围内的信息。 促进适当利用气候信息的因素与用户报告的障碍密切相关,包括改善数据获取、更好的工具和服务、更好的沟通、对数据解释和使用的支持以及培训。特定的未满足的需求,如额外的排放情景,用户确定的衍生变量,正在帮助确定气候科学研究和更新UKCP包的途径。调查答复提高了对有用和可用数据和数据产品特征的清晰度,包括数据可视化和下载的首选格式,以及旨在加强对不确定性理解的产品。这些见解将为未来气候信息的获取和传播提供重要的改进信息。实际上,这项研究正在展示如何从假定的与需求相关的气候服务转向需求驱动的气候服务。它将使现有的气候研究能够得到适当的利用,以满足未得到满足的需要,改善背景信息的交流,并确保用户关于有用性和可用性的反馈在未来气候服务的发展中得到考虑。
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引用次数: 0
Flood evacuation shelter location-allocation considering vulnerability identification in the context of pre-requisition 预征用条件下考虑脆弱性识别的洪水疏散避难所位置分配
IF 4.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100617
Zaiwu Gong , Xinrui Guo , Guo Wei , Xinxin Luo , Xiaoxia Xu
As China navigates its path to development, rapid growth has been accompanied by persistent challenges, including a widening wealth gap and urban–rural divide, leaving vulnerable populations in towns and villages particularly at risk of flooding disasters. Faced with extreme weather, emergency plans typically fail to account for special-needs groups. Pinpointing the spatial distribution of vulnerabilities and high-risk flood areas, improving the multi-functionality of emergency shelters, and determining the reasonable layout of shelters pose critical challenges in disaster prevention and mitigation. To address the problem of inefficient rural shelter layouts and insufficient protection for special-needs populations, the pre-requisition system, as a part of the emergency planning framework, provides a novel approach. Through scientific planning and resource pre-allocation, before disasters strike, this system can enhance emergency response efficiency and optimize shelter layouts. This study, within the context of this system, presents a shelter site selection decision-making method that combines bottom-up and top-down approaches, integrating vulnerability identification, diverse needs, emergency evacuation zoning, and shelter layout optimization. Using Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture in Sichuan Province as a case study, real data were analyzed with ArcGIS software to determine optimal shelter placements. The study verified the necessity of considering the varied needs of affected populations and validates the feasibility of the proposed model through a comparative analysis of coverage results. The findings not only provide valuable insights for targeted planning and differentiated resource allocation in rural areas but also offer support for the practical implementation of the pre-requisition system in shelter locations.
在中国的发展道路上,快速增长伴随着持续的挑战,包括不断扩大的贫富差距和城乡差距,使城镇和村庄的弱势群体特别容易受到洪涝灾害的威胁。面对极端天气,应急计划通常没有考虑到有特殊需要的群体。确定脆弱性和高风险洪区的空间分布,提高应急避难所的多功能性,确定避难所的合理布局,是防灾减灾的关键挑战。为了解决农村住房布局效率低下和对特殊需要人口保护不足的问题,预先征用制度作为应急规划框架的一部分,提供了一种新的办法。通过科学规划和资源预分配,在灾害发生前,提高应急响应效率,优化避难所布局。本研究在该系统的背景下,提出了一种自下而上和自上而下相结合的避难所选址决策方法,将脆弱性识别、多样化需求、应急疏散分区和避难所布局优化相结合。研究验证了考虑受灾人群不同需求的必要性,并通过覆盖结果的对比分析验证了所提出模型的可行性。研究结果不仅为农村地区有针对性的规划和差异化的资源配置提供了有价值的见解,而且为在安置点实际实施预征用制度提供了支持。
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引用次数: 0
Climate information services and its determinants among smallholder farmers in Sidama Region, southern Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚南部Sidama地区小农的气候信息服务及其决定因素
IF 4.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100611
Mamuye Belihu , Tafesse Matewos , Kereyu Kebede , Tirfu Kakiso
Climate information services (CIS) are essential for the agricultural sector, empowering farmers to effectively adapt to climate-induced challenges and make informed decisions. This study explored the status of CIS and utilization among smallholder farmers in Sidama region, Ethiopia. Data was collected through household surveys, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and field observation. Multi-stage sampling techniques were applied and purposefully selected three woredas (districts), from three different agroecological zones. 384 households were selected using a systematic random sampling. Data analysis was conducted using descriptive, qualitative analysis, chi-square tests, and a binary logistic regression model. The results indicated a moderate status of know-how and access to CIS with 50.8% of farmers having access to the CIS, of which only 33.9% actively utilized the information. The primary sources for CIS are agricultural extension officers, radio, television, mobile phones, peer farmers, and village leaders. In the Low lands (39.6%), midland (36.9%), and highland only 18.9% of the sample households utilized the services. The low landers where moisture stress is significant, farmers are more interested in utilizing CIS comparatively. The result also proves that the most prominent factors hindering the utilization of CIS are farmers’ education level, farm size, availability of credit, access to extension services, and absence of social protection services, income level, market access, and trust in the provided information. To enhance productivity, stakeholders including local and regional governments and agricultural extension services in collaboration with meteorological service providers should focus on improving the availability, accessibility, reliability, and utilization of CIS.
气候信息服务对农业部门至关重要,使农民能够有效地适应气候引起的挑战并做出明智的决策。本研究探讨了埃塞俄比亚西达马地区小农独联体的现状及其利用情况。通过入户调查、焦点小组讨论、关键信息提供者访谈和实地观察收集数据。采用多阶段抽样技术,有目的地从三个不同的农业生态区中选择了三个工作区(区)。采用系统随机抽样法抽取384户。数据分析采用描述性分析、定性分析、卡方检验和二元logistic回归模型。结果表明,农户对信息系统的了解程度和获取途径处于中等水平,50.8%的农户获得了信息系统,其中只有33.9%的农户积极利用信息系统。信息的主要来源是农业推广人员、广播、电视、移动电话、同行农民和村领导。在低地(39.6%)、中部(36.9%)和高地,只有18.9%的样本家庭利用了这些服务。相对而言,在水分胁迫显著的低地,农民对利用CIS更感兴趣。研究结果还表明,农户的受教育程度、农场规模、信贷可获得性、推广服务可获得性、社会保障服务缺位、收入水平、市场准入和对所提供信息的信任程度是阻碍农业信息系统利用的最突出因素。为了提高生产力,包括地方和区域政府以及农业推广服务在内的利益相关者应与气象服务提供商合作,重点关注改善CIS的可用性、可及性、可靠性和利用率。
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引用次数: 0
Development and application of a watershed-based environmental drought index reflecting water cycle characteristics 基于流域的反映水循环特征的环境干旱指数的开发与应用
IF 4.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100602
Jaeyeon Lim , Sangung Lee , Bu Geon Jo , Joo-Heon Lee , Young Do Kim
Droughts driven by climate change increasingly affect aquatic ecosystems by deteriorating water quality. However, conventional drought indices primarily focus on water quantity, limiting their ability to capture environmental impacts. To address this gap, this study develops the Water Quality Environmental Drought Index (WQEDI), building on the Environmental Drought Index (EDI) originally proposed by Srivastava and Maity (2023) and later adapted by Jo et al. (2024) to include water quality indicators.
WQEDI introduces three key innovations, including the integration of water quality indicators alongside hydrological and meteorological variables; data driven variable selection and weighting using Random Forest (RF), with threshold derivation via Decision Tree (DT) models; and watershed- specific drought grading tailored to urban, rural, and forest watershed typologies, thereby enhancing spatial adaptability.
Validation results confirmed that WQEDI outperforms the EDI proposed by Jo et al. (2024) in terms of explanatory power, showing stronger correlations with biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) concentrations and more consistent exceedance patterns. Moreover, BOD exceedance rates systematically increased with higher WQEDI drought grades, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing environmental drought severity.
Based on these findings, the study identified watershed-specific priority grades and intervention periods and proposed customized drought management strategies. WQEDI provides a refined and adaptable framework for diagnosing and managing drought induced water quality deterioration. It offers a scientifically grounded basis for environmental drought response and supports the development of evidence-based water management and climate adaptation policies.
气候变化导致的干旱通过恶化水质日益影响水生生态系统。然而,传统的干旱指数主要关注水量,限制了它们捕捉环境影响的能力。为了解决这一差距,本研究在Srivastava和Maity(2023)最初提出的环境干旱指数(EDI)的基础上开发了水质环境干旱指数(WQEDI),后来由Jo等人(2024)进行了修改,以包括水质指标。WQEDI引入了三个关键创新,包括将水质指标与水文和气象变量相结合;数据驱动的变量选择和加权使用随机森林(RF),并通过决策树(DT)模型的阈值推导;并根据城市、农村和森林流域类型进行流域干旱分级,从而增强空间适应性。验证结果证实,WQEDI在解释力方面优于Jo et al.(2024)提出的EDI,与生化需氧量(BOD)浓度的相关性更强,超出模式更一致。此外,BOD超标率随着WQEDI干旱等级的升高而系统地增加,表明其在捕获环境干旱严重程度方面的有效性。基于这些发现,该研究确定了流域特定的优先等级和干预期,并提出了定制的干旱管理策略。WQEDI为诊断和管理干旱引起的水质恶化提供了一个完善和适应性强的框架。它为环境干旱响应提供了科学依据,并支持以证据为基础的水资源管理和气候适应政策的制定。
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