Climate Services最新文献_第2页

A climate indicator dashboard for communicating climate change in the Okanagan Valley of B.C. 在不列颠哥伦比亚省的奥肯那根山谷，一个气候指示仪表板，用于传达气候变化

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100631

Sandra Schira , Anna Warwick Sears , Jeremy Fyke

The Okanagan Valley in British Columbia, Canada, is increasingly vulnerable to climate change, experiencing hotter temperatures, longer and more intense wildfire seasons, extreme cold events, long-term droughts, and less predictable water supplies. Communities now often experience multiple climate-driven extreme events within the same year. Therefore, the Okanagan Basin Water Board (OBWB), a regional water resource management body, recognized the need to support regional decision-makers with effective tools to integrate local climate context into community-scale planning and communication. However, climate change is complex and regional decision makers are not trained climate experts. An effective decision support tool must therefore provide accurate and relevant information in a transparent and intuitive way. Motivated by this need, this study describes scientific methods and design principles used to calculate, visualize and present over 30 locally relevant indicators developed from publicly available weather and climate observation data on the publicly available OBWB Climate Indicators Dashboard. The process involved identifying useful climate impact indicators, understanding available data sets and their limitations, understanding and building trust with the intended audience, and iterating on data visualization design and dashboard wording for maximum impact. By presenting our methods and design principles, we highlight the OBWB Climate Indicators Dashboard as one among an emerging class of community-scale tools to communicate climate change. Based on initial positive feedback of the tool, we hope our case study is useful to others planning to create their own watershed-scale climate communication tools.

加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省的奥肯那根山谷越来越容易受到气候变化的影响，它经历着更高的温度、更长更强烈的野火季节、极端寒冷事件、长期干旱和更不可预测的供水。社区现在经常在同一年内经历多次气候驱动的极端事件。因此，奥肯纳根流域水务局（OBWB），一个区域水资源管理机构，认识到有必要为区域决策者提供有效的工具，将当地气候背景整合到社区规模的规划和沟通中。然而，气候变化是复杂的，区域决策者并不是受过训练的气候专家。因此，有效的决策支持工具必须以透明和直观的方式提供准确和相关的信息。受这一需求的推动，本研究描述了用于计算、可视化和呈现30多个当地相关指标的科学方法和设计原则，这些指标是从公开可用的OBWB气候指标仪表板上公开可用的天气和气候观测数据中开发出来的。该过程包括确定有用的气候影响指标，了解可用数据集及其局限性，了解目标受众并与之建立信任，以及迭代数据可视化设计和仪表板措辞以实现最大影响。通过介绍我们的方法和设计原则，我们强调OBWB气候指标仪表板是新兴的社区规模的气候变化沟通工具之一。基于该工具最初的积极反馈，我们希望我们的案例研究对其他计划创建自己的流域尺度气候通信工具的人有用。

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引用次数: 0

Building the scientific basis for the adaptation strategy of an Alpine region: The ‘State of the climate in Trentino’ report 建立高山地区适应战略的科学基础：“特伦蒂诺气候状况”报告

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100629

Anna Napoli , Michael Matiu , Lavinia Laiti , Roberto Barbiero , David Tombolato , Silvia Scarian Monsorno , Alberto Bellin , Dino Zardi , Bruno Majone

Many regional administrations are currently developing tailored adaptation strategies, based on the unique characteristics of their territories, which includes local climate patterns and, more importantly, environmental and socioeconomic factors. Yet, exploiting this wealth of information to design effective climate strategies remains a challenge. This study outlines the approach used to establish the basis for the climate strategy in the Autonomous Province of Trento, a mountainous region in northern Italy and part of the European Alps. The approach adopted by the regional government emphasizes the need for a multi-level, multi-stakeholder approach to shape the development of a regional adaptation strategy. Here, we present three major steps of this process, highlighting the collaborative effort between diverse entities: (1) Compilation of an up-to-date scientific review of the existing knowledge about climate change impacts in the region, (2) Creation of reference climate scenarios, and (3) Dissemination of a summary of the report to the general public. The literature review revealed large heterogeneity across socioeconomic sectors in the scientific literature focusing on the impacts of climate change. This disparity was reflected in the informative report, which simplified and summarized the technical information without sacrificing scientific accuracy. The creation of climate scenarios had to balance multiple aspects, including mountain topography, data availability, and needs from stakeholders, by using a layered approach combining spatially aggregated results, statistical downscaling, and high-resolution convection-permitting models.

许多区域行政当局目前正在根据其领土的独特特征制定量身定制的适应战略，其中包括当地气候模式，更重要的是，环境和社会经济因素。然而，利用这些丰富的信息来设计有效的气候战略仍然是一个挑战。这项研究概述了在特伦托自治省建立气候战略基础的方法，特伦托自治省是意大利北部的一个山区，也是欧洲阿尔卑斯山的一部分。该地区政府采用的方法强调需要采用多层次、多方利益相关者的方法来制定区域适应战略。在此，我们提出了这一过程的三个主要步骤，强调了不同实体之间的合作努力：(1)编写有关该地区气候变化影响的最新科学综述；(2)创建参考气候情景；(3)向公众传播报告摘要。文献综述显示，在关注气候变化影响的科学文献中，社会经济部门之间存在很大的异质性。这种差异反映在翔实的报告中，该报告在不牺牲科学准确性的情况下简化和总结了技术信息。气候情景的创建必须平衡多个方面，包括山地地形、数据可用性和利益相关者的需求，通过使用分层方法结合空间汇总结果、统计降尺度和高分辨率对流允许模型。

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引用次数: 0

Projected changes in European hail damage risk to buildings: Insights from 3 °C Pseudo Global Warming simulations with a km-scale regional climate model 欧洲冰雹破坏建筑物风险的预估变化：基于km尺度区域气候模式的3°C伪全球变暖模拟的见解

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100630

Timo Schmid, Valentin Gebhart, David N. Bresch

Severe hailstorms are among the most destructive weather phenomena in Europe, with the recent hail seasons of 2022 and 2023 both causing record losses above 5 billion euros. This highlights the importance of assessing hail risk in a warming climate. We approach this question by leveraging 11-year convection-resolving climate simulations using the COSMO model with the hail growth module HAILCAST. Comparing a 3 °C warming scenario to present-day simulations, we observe a generally increasing trend in expected hail damage to buildings, with a 42% increase over the calibration region in Switzerland and pronounced spatial variability across Europe. Assuming a building vulnerability as calibrated over Switzerland, 24 of 28 countries show an increasing potential for hail damage, despite only 11 with increasing overall hail frequency. Given the concentration of hail damages into few events with limited spatial extent, we observe a large variability in modelled hail damage based on sampling uncertainty within the 11-year simulations, which locally mostly exceeds the change signal. Larger spatial aggregation increases the confidence in the climate change signal, with the overall damage potential over Europe increasing by 25%–42% in the 3 °C warming scenario. On top of the change signal, we provide a spatially resampled hail event set for explicit risk assessments and a new technique to calibrate impact functions for climate simulations to observed data.

严重的冰雹是欧洲最具破坏性的天气现象之一，最近的2022年和2023年的冰雹季节都造成了超过50亿欧元的创纪录损失。这突出了在气候变暖的情况下评估冰雹风险的重要性。我们通过利用COSMO模式和冰雹增长模块HAILCAST进行11年对流解析气候模拟来解决这个问题。将3°C变暖情景与目前的模拟进行比较，我们观察到预期冰雹对建筑物造成的破坏总体呈增加趋势，在瑞士的校准区域增加42%，整个欧洲的空间变异性明显。假设建筑物的脆弱性以瑞士为基准，28个国家中有24个国家显示出冰雹破坏的可能性增加，尽管只有11个国家的冰雹总体频率增加。考虑到冰雹灾害集中在有限空间范围内的几个事件中，我们观察到11年模拟中基于采样不确定性的冰雹灾害模型存在很大的变化，局部变化大多超过了变化信号。更大的空间聚集增加了对气候变化信号的信度，在3°C变暖情景下，欧洲的总体破坏潜力增加了25%-42%。在变化信号的基础上，我们提供了一个空间重采样的冰雹事件集，用于明确的风险评估，并提供了一种新的技术来校准气候模拟对观测数据的影响函数。

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引用次数: 0

Weather and climate information services for pastoralists: A review 牧民天气和气候信息服务综述

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100628

Katharine Vincent , Simon Mercer , Ellen Reid , Claire Bedelian , Sarah Opitz-Stapleton

There has been an increase in interest in weather and climate information services (WCIS) in the agriculture sector, but pastoralism (extensive rearing of livestock) has received less attention than crop agriculture. This paper presents a scoping review of literature to assess what is known on WCIS for pastoralists from Web of Science, Google Scholar and selected organisations working in these fields. The review generated 51 papers published between 2000 and 2024 covering multiple regions, but with 80% focusing on Africa. Papers address various aspects of WCIS, with particular focus on users. Themes for which there are evidence include the role of indigenous and scientific forecasting, identifying user needs, how to generate and communicate information in such a way as to encourage use, risk perceptions and use of WCIS, including the benefits. The evidence base is small but growing, and there is some commonality of themes with other fields. Challenges persist in how to generate and effectively communicate salient, credible and legitimate information. The particularly strong focus on indigenous and scientific forecasts highlights the importance of indigenous knowledge to many pastoralist communities and raises questions about how best to integrate knowledge types. Future research directions in pastoralist WCIS, like in other fields, are likely to cover issues such as evaluation and sustainability, and also how WCIS can support other adaptation and risk reduction efforts.

农业部门对天气和气候信息服务（WCIS）的兴趣有所增加，但与作物农业相比，畜牧业（广泛饲养牲畜）受到的关注较少。本文对来自Web of Science、b谷歌Scholar和在这些领域工作的选定组织的文献进行了范围审查，以评估牧民WCIS的已知情况。该综述在2000年至2024年期间发表了51篇论文，涵盖多个地区，但其中80%集中在非洲。论文讨论了WCIS的各个方面，特别关注用户。有证据支持的主题包括：本地和科学预测的作用、确定用户需求、如何以鼓励使用的方式产生和传播信息、风险认知和使用世界信息中心，包括其益处。证据基础虽小但在不断增长，并且与其他领域的主题有一些共性。如何产生和有效地传播突出的、可信的和合法的信息仍然是挑战。对土著和科学预测的特别重视突出了土著知识对许多牧民社区的重要性，并提出了如何最好地整合各种知识的问题。与其他领域一样，牧民WCIS未来的研究方向可能包括评估和可持续性等问题，以及WCIS如何支持其他适应和降低风险的努力。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating weather and climate information services for heat and drought adaptation in Southeast Europe: gaps, opportunities and design principles 评估东南欧适应高温和干旱的天气和气候信息服务：差距、机会和设计原则

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100626

Spyridon Paparrizos , Dragan Milošević , Zorica Podraščanin , Tim Friso Lodewijk , Raffaele Vignola , Samuel J. Sutanto , Maria del Pozo Garcia , Wouter J. Smolenaars , Miroslav Vujičić , Gordana Kranjac-Berisavljevic , Biljana Basarin

Although many Weather and Climate Information Services are available in Southeast Europe, their contribution to enhancing long-term climate resilience remains unclear. This study evaluates the role of WCIS in supporting climate change adaptation in SEE with regard to extreme heat and drought events, and identifies key gaps. In this study, heat and drought refer to perceived conditions of elevated temperature and prolonged precipitation deficit as understood by stakeholders, rather strictly defined meteorological thresholds. The analysis draws on a mixed-methods approach combining bibliometric and market analysis, surveys, and semi-structured interviews, with results reflecting predominantly qualitative, perception-based insights. Findings highlight persistent challenges in WCIS user engagement, stemming from gaps in design and communication. Many services in SEE adopt top-down approaches with limited user involvement and inadequate educational support. Strengthening participation and promoting transparency in information dissemination are crucial. Tailoring WCIS to specific sectors, such as agriculture, public health, and water management, can help ensure relevance to local needs. Technical challenges remain regarding reliability, trustworthiness and performance of WCIS related to heat- and drought-related impacts. The study concludes with five key recommendations: 1) improve cross-scale engagement, 2) ensure transparency, 3) address sector-specific needs, 4) enhance user-friendliness, and 5) increase reliability and trust.

虽然东南欧有许多天气和气候信息服务，但它们对增强长期气候适应能力的贡献尚不清楚。本研究评估了WCIS在支持SEE地区对极端高温和干旱事件的气候变化适应方面的作用，并确定了关键差距。在本研究中，高温和干旱是指利益相关者所理解的温度升高和降水不足延长的感知条件，而不是严格定义的气象阈值。该分析采用了文献计量学和市场分析、调查和半结构化访谈相结合的混合方法，其结果主要反映了定性的、基于感知的见解。调查结果强调了WCIS用户参与方面的持续挑战，这些挑战源于设计和沟通方面的差距。SEE的许多服务采用自上而下的方法，用户参与有限，教育支持不足。加强参与和促进信息传播的透明度至关重要。根据农业、公共卫生和水管理等具体部门调整世界卫生信息系统，有助于确保与当地需求相适应。与高温和干旱相关的影响有关的WCIS的可靠性、可信度和性能方面的技术挑战仍然存在。该研究总结了五项关键建议：1)改善跨规模参与；2)确保透明度；3)满足特定行业需求；4)增强用户友好性；5)提高可靠性和信任度。

{"title":"Evaluating weather and climate information services for heat and drought adaptation in Southeast Europe: gaps, opportunities and design principles","authors":"Spyridon Paparrizos , Dragan Milošević , Zorica Podraščanin , Tim Friso Lodewijk , Raffaele Vignola , Samuel J. Sutanto , Maria del Pozo Garcia , Wouter J. Smolenaars , Miroslav Vujičić , Gordana Kranjac-Berisavljevic , Biljana Basarin","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100626","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100626","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although many Weather and Climate Information Services are available in Southeast Europe, their contribution to enhancing long-term climate resilience remains unclear. This study evaluates the role of WCIS in supporting climate change adaptation in SEE with regard to extreme heat and drought events, and identifies key gaps. In this study, heat and drought refer to perceived conditions of elevated temperature and prolonged precipitation deficit as understood by stakeholders, rather strictly defined meteorological thresholds. The analysis draws on a mixed-methods approach combining bibliometric and market analysis, surveys, and semi-structured interviews, with results reflecting predominantly qualitative, perception-based insights. Findings highlight persistent challenges in WCIS user engagement, stemming from gaps in design and communication. Many services in SEE adopt top-down approaches with limited user involvement and inadequate educational support. Strengthening participation and promoting transparency in information dissemination are crucial. Tailoring WCIS to specific sectors, such as agriculture, public health, and water management, can help ensure relevance to local needs. Technical challenges remain regarding reliability, trustworthiness and performance of WCIS related to heat- and drought-related impacts. The study concludes with five key recommendations: 1) improve cross-scale engagement, 2) ensure transparency, 3) address sector-specific needs, 4) enhance user-friendliness, and 5) increase reliability and trust.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100626"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145465734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A hybrid-model-based probabilistic forecast procedure for the seasonal frequency of tropical cyclones 基于混合模式的热带气旋季节频率概率预报方法

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100627

Youngeun Kim, Namyoung Kang

For effective prevention of climatic disasters from tropical cyclones (TCs), forecast information on TC activity needs to be developed in a form that can be practically exploited in the public. This study aims to construct a probabilistic forecast procedure for the seasonal number of TCs occurring over the western North Pacific based on a hybrid modeling technique. First, a numerical ensemble model, global seasonal forecasting system version 6 (GloSea6), is employed to the hybrid model, where the ensemble outputs are used for dynamical inputs to the statistical module. Then, a Poisson regression modeling is applied to the statistical module and the predictive probability distribution is produced. Lastly, a probabilistic forecast procedure using five forecast categories such as “Below Normal”, “Normal or Below Normal”, “Normal”, “Normal or Above Normal”, and “Above Normal” is proposed based on the probability distribution. All procedure is demonstrated and verified using GloSea6’s hindcasts over the 24 years (1993–2016) during six months (from June to November). This study contributes to disaster management by enhancing the usability and interpretability of seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts, thereby supporting anticipatory decision-making under conditions of climatic uncertainty.

为了有效地预防热带气旋造成的气候灾害，需要发展热带气旋活动的预报资料，使其能够为公众实际利用。本研究旨在建立一个基于混合模式技术的北太平洋西部tc季节数量的概率预报程序。首先，将全球季节预报系统版本6 （GloSea6）的数值集合模型用于混合模型，其中集合输出用于统计模块的动态输入。然后，对统计模块进行泊松回归建模，得到预测概率分布。最后，提出了基于概率分布的“低于正常”、“正常或低于正常”、“正常”、“正常或高于正常”、“高于正常”5个预测类别的概率预测程序。使用GloSea6在6个月内（从6月到11月）对24年（1993-2016）的预测进行了演示和验证。这项研究通过提高季节性热带气旋预报的可用性和可解释性，从而有助于灾害管理，从而支持在气候不确定条件下的预期决策。

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引用次数: 0

On the importance of the reference data: Uncertainty partitioning of bias-adjusted climate simulations over eastern Canada 参考数据的重要性：加拿大东部经过偏差调整的气候模拟的不确定性划分

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100619

Juliette Lavoie , Louis-Philippe Caron , Travis Logan , Stephen Sobie , Richard Turcotte , Edouard Mailhot , Jasmine Pelletier-Dumont

Bias-adjusted climate simulations are increasingly disseminated through online platforms to support adaptation actions. However, there is no consensus on an operational framework to choose what to include in these “decision-ready” ensembles and for communicating the related uncertainty. In this paper, we use a systematic approach to assess the uncertainty related to bias-adjusted climate simulations across five dimensions: internal variability, greenhouse gases scenario, global climate model, observational reference and bias-adjustment method. We calculate the fraction of uncertainty associated with each dimension for precipitation-based, temperature-based and multivariate indicators over eastern Canada and focus particularly on three locations: Montréal, Gaspé and Kawawachikamach. The results show that the uncertainty associated with the reference dataset can be very large and in some instances can become the first or second largest source of uncertainty. Using simple examples, we show that the resulting differences could lead to different conclusions with respect to some adaptation solutions or possibly create confusion with users. These results raise questions on the robustness of climate projections distributed through these web platforms and the ethical responsibility of data providers to adequately evaluate and communicate the underlying uncertainty.

偏差调整后的气候模拟越来越多地通过在线平台传播，以支持适应行动。然而，对于选择在这些“准备好决策”的集合中包含什么以及沟通相关不确定性的操作框架，并没有达成共识。本文采用系统方法，从内部变率、温室气体情景、全球气候模式、观测参考和偏倚调整方法五个维度评估了与偏倚调整气候模拟相关的不确定性。我们计算了加拿大东部地区基于降水、基于温度和多变量指标的每个维度的不确定性的比例，并特别关注三个地点：montrsamal、gasaspee和Kawawachikamach。结果表明，与参考数据集相关的不确定性可能非常大，在某些情况下可能成为不确定性的第一或第二大来源。通过简单的例子，我们表明，由此产生的差异可能导致对某些适应解决方案的不同结论，或者可能对用户造成混淆。这些结果对通过这些网络平台发布的气候预测的稳健性以及数据提供者充分评估和传达潜在不确定性的道德责任提出了质疑。

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引用次数: 0

Determinants of public purchase intention towards refined health meteorological Services: Evidence from Jiangsu Province, China 公众购买精细卫生气象服务意愿的决定因素：来自中国江苏省的证据

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100625

Qi Zhang , Jingxia Cao , Andi Wang , Liangyu Ji , Yuning Wei , Mingyang Zhang

Climate change-driven health risks are exacerbating the global disease burden and mortality, making the development of refined health meteorological services a critical strategy for addressing gaps in public health care preparedness. This study examines public purchase intention towards refined health meteorological services, employing the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) and structural equation modelling (SEM). Data were collected from 535 urban residents in Jiangsu Province, and Likert-scale items were used to measure purchase intention for very short-term (0–24 h) weather forecasts, extended-range (60–90 d) weather forecasts, and air quality services (hourly PM2.5/SO₂/NOx). The results indicate that 60–65 % of the respondents expressed purchase intention, with SEM identifying the need for air quality information services (β = 0.803, p < 0.01) as the strongest driver, followed by attitudes towards refined health meteorological services (β = 0.368, p < 0.01), and the need for very short-term/extended-range weather forecasts (β = 0.124, p < 0.05). Subjective norms currently showed no significant effect. The findings have substantive implications for governmental stakeholders (e.g., meteorological and public health authorities) and industrial stakeholders (e.g., health technology and service companies) in fostering the commercialization of health meteorological services at the population level. The conclusions are highly informative and transferable to other urbanized areas undergoing comparable socioeconomic development and confronting analogous climate-related health challenges.

气候变化导致的健康风险正在加剧全球疾病负担和死亡率，这使得发展完善的卫生气象服务成为解决公共卫生保健准备方面差距的一项关键战略。本研究采用计划行为理论（TPB）和结构方程模型（SEM）研究公众对精细卫生气象服务的购买意愿。本研究收集了535名江苏省城市居民的数据，并采用李克特量表来衡量短期（0-24小时）天气预报、大范围（60-90天）天气预报和空气质量服务（每小时PM2.5/SO2/NOx）的购买意愿。结果表明，60 - 65%的受访者表达了购买意愿，其中SEM认为对空气质量信息服务的需求（β = 0.803, p < 0.01）是最强烈的驱动因素，其次是对精细化卫生气象服务的需求（β = 0.368, p < 0.01），以及对极短期/长范围天气预报的需求（β = 0.124, p < 0.05）。主观规范目前效果不显著。研究结果对政府利益攸关方（如气象和公共卫生当局）和工业利益攸关方（如卫生技术和服务公司）在促进人口一级卫生气象服务商业化方面具有实质性影响。这些结论具有很强的信息性，可用于其他经历类似社会经济发展并面临类似气候相关健康挑战的城市化地区。

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引用次数: 0

Community vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning: A workshop methodology to expedite progress 社区脆弱性评估和适应规划：加快进展的研讨会方法

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100621

Deb Rudnick , Lara Hansen , Marc Stern , Caleb O’brien , Jenn Brousseau , Arden Drake , Eric Mielbrecht

We lay out a methodology for planning and implementing place-based climate adaptation workshops, which are an increasingly commonly used tool to help communities prepare for and respond to climate change impacts. This methodology was created using literature from the field, a Delphi study to generate consensus-based best practices for effective workshops in the United States, and the authors’ experiences implementing the methodology at workshops in eight U.S. communities across a range of geographies, political contexts, and climate exposures. Workshop facilitators guided participants through vulnerability assessments for their communities, introduced tools and data for supporting this work, and engaged participants in break-out group discussions to co-develop adaptation solutions for increasing community resilience to identified climate change vulnerabilities. Our work supports that workshop effectiveness is enhanced when key conditions are put in place, including encouraging a diversity of participation; reducing barriers to participation; providing expert facilitation; sharing locally relevant examples; and creating space for co-generated solutions that are feasible and for which leaders and partners are identified to lead implementation. We share evidence that, while workshops were recent, communities have started undertaking adaptation solutions identified during the climate adaptation workshops and are translating them into planning and implementation in their communities. In providing this methodology, we aim to share a case study for creating and conducting effective, capacity-building place-based climate adaptation workshops that can help communities build resilience to climate change.

我们提出了一种规划和实施基于地点的气候适应研讨会的方法，这是一种越来越常用的工具，可以帮助社区准备和应对气候变化的影响。该方法是利用该领域的文献、德尔福研究（Delphi study）为美国有效的研讨会生成基于共识的最佳实践，以及作者在美国八个社区的研讨会上实施该方法的经验而创建的，这些研讨会跨越了一系列地理、政治背景和气候风险。研讨会主持人指导与会者对其社区进行脆弱性评估，介绍支持这项工作的工具和数据，并让与会者参加分组讨论，共同制定适应解决方案，以提高社区对已确定的气候变化脆弱性的抵御能力。我们的工作支持，当关键条件到位时，包括鼓励多样化参与，讲习班的有效性就会得到提高；减少参与障碍；提供专家协助；分享本地相关的例子；并为共同产生的解决方案创造空间，这些解决方案是可行的，并且确定了领导者和合作伙伴来领导实施。我们分享的证据表明，虽然讲习班是最近举办的，但社区已经开始采取在气候适应讲习班期间确定的适应解决方案，并正在将其转化为社区的规划和实施。在提供这种方法的过程中，我们的目标是分享一个案例研究，以创建和开展有效的、能力建设的、基于地点的气候适应讲习班，帮助社区建立对气候变化的适应能力。

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引用次数: 0

Agrometeorological drought early warning as a climate service: SPI projections using SARIMA models for seasonal risk management 农业气象干旱预警作为气候服务：利用SARIMA模型进行季节性风险管理的SPI预测

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100622

Muhammad Ashraf , Adnan Arshad , Farhat Iqbal , Shabnam Pourshirazi , Muhammad Usman Azhar , Urooba Farman Tanoli , Tofeeq Ahmad , Alaa Ahmed , Rashid Bilal

Extreme weather events, such as frequent droughts, pose a significant threat to agriculture and livelihoods in countries such as Pakistan, where agriculture, which employs 62 % of the workforce, is heavily dependent on rainfall. In the current study, a climate service has been developed to develop early warnings for agrometeorological drought by applying Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models to forecast the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) across 6- and 12-month intervals. This innovative approach aims to enhance the capacity for anticipating drought conditions, facilitate more effective agricultural management and decision-making in response to potential water scarcity. By using monthly precipitation data collected from 20 sites between 1991 and 2024, a comprehensive assessment of historical drought occurrences and projected seasonal conditions for the agricultural period from 2025 to 2030 and long-term 2–25 to 2050 are conducted. The best-fit SARIMA models demonstrated high accuracy (validation R² values: 0.86–0.94; RMSE values: 0.31–0.49) across meteorological stations. From 2010 to 2024, the Quetta region experienced 17 months of extreme drought (SPI ≤ − 2.0), indicating that severe droughts were a recurrent phenomenon. Projections for 2025–2030 and 2025–2050, based on historical trends, predict prolonged mild drought conditions (SPI: −1.3 to − 1.7) during the Rabi season in Punjab and Sindh. Balochistan is expected to face severe arid conditions, with the SPI reaching − 2.1 by 2028. The SARIMA model showed high forecasting ability, with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values > 0.81 across all stations, offering useful insights for irrigation planning and crop management. Our research will enable policymakers to forecast yield reductions of 25 %–35 % in drought-prone agrometeorological zones and prioritize resource allocation, providing a vital tool for seasonal risk assessment and serving as an early warning system to help plan climate-smart management practices, promote drought-tolerant crop varieties, and implement high-efficiency irrigation systems, thereby improving the resilience of rain-fed agricultural systems.

极端天气事件，如频繁的干旱，对巴基斯坦等国的农业和生计构成重大威胁，在这些国家，农业雇佣了62%的劳动力，严重依赖降雨。在目前的研究中，已经开发了一个气候服务，通过应用季节自回归综合移动平均（SARIMA）模型来预测标准化降水指数（SPI）在6个月和12个月的间隔来开发农业气象干旱的早期预警。这种创新方法旨在提高预测干旱条件的能力，促进更有效的农业管理和决策，以应对潜在的水资源短缺。利用1991 ~ 2024年20个站点逐月降水资料，对2025 ~ 2030年农业期和长期2 ~ 25 ~ 2050年农业期的历史干旱发生率和季节预测条件进行了综合评价。最佳拟合的SARIMA模型在气象站间具有较高的精度（验证R2为0.86 ~ 0.94，RMSE为0.31 ~ 0.49）。2010 - 2024年，Quetta地区经历了17个月的极端干旱（SPI≤- 2.0），表明严重干旱是一种经常性现象。根据历史趋势对2025-2030年和2025-2050年的预测，旁遮普和信德省拉比季将出现长期轻度干旱（SPI: - 1.3至- 1.7）。预计俾路支省将面临严重的干旱条件，到2028年SPI将达到- 2.1。SARIMA模型显示出较高的预测能力，所有站点的Nash-Sutcliffe效率值为0.81，为灌溉规划和作物管理提供了有用的见解。我们的研究将使政策制定者能够预测干旱易发农业气象区减产25% - 35%，并确定资源分配的优先顺序，为季节性风险评估提供重要工具，并作为早期预警系统，帮助规划气候智能型管理实践，推广耐旱作物品种，实施高效灌溉系统，从而提高雨养农业系统的恢复能力。

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