Climate Services最新文献

{"title":"Projected changes in European hail damage risk to buildings: Insights from 3 °C Pseudo Global Warming simulations with a km-scale regional climate model","authors":"Timo Schmid,&nbsp;Valentin Gebhart,&nbsp;David N. Bresch","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100630","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100630","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Severe hailstorms are among the most destructive weather phenomena in Europe, with the recent hail seasons of 2022 and 2023 both causing record losses above 5 billion euros. This highlights the importance of assessing hail risk in a warming climate. We approach this question by leveraging 11-year convection-resolving climate simulations using the COSMO model with the hail growth module HAILCAST. Comparing a 3 °C warming scenario to present-day simulations, we observe a generally increasing trend in expected hail damage to buildings, with a 42% increase over the calibration region in Switzerland and pronounced spatial variability across Europe. Assuming a building vulnerability as calibrated over Switzerland, 24 of 28 countries show an increasing potential for hail damage, despite only 11 with increasing overall hail frequency. Given the concentration of hail damages into few events with limited spatial extent, we observe a large variability in modelled hail damage based on sampling uncertainty within the 11-year simulations, which locally mostly exceeds the change signal. Larger spatial aggregation increases the confidence in the climate change signal, with the overall damage potential over Europe increasing by 25%–42% in the 3 °C warming scenario. On top of the change signal, we provide a spatially resampled hail event set for explicit risk assessments and a new technique to calibrate impact functions for climate simulations to observed data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100630"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145685866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Growing population exposure to extreme floods in the Pearl River Basin in the future under global warming levels","authors":"Wei Qi,&nbsp;Ruiting Huang,&nbsp;Yanpeng Cai,&nbsp;Qian Tan","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100632","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100632","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change and socioeconomic development are projected to change flood risk in China’s Pearl River Basin (PRB), yet the future pathways of this risk remain unclear. This study quantifies population exposure to extreme floods from 1985 to 2100 by integrating a basin-calibrated WEB-DHM-SG hydrological model with bias-corrected ISIMIP3b climate projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) population datasets. We assess exposure at global warming thresholds from 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C and decompose the contributions of climatic versus demographic drivers. Results indicate that population exposure peaks around mid-century at approximately 20 million people across all scenarios, then diverges: it declines under SSP126 (to ∼ 18 million), rises under SSP370 (to ∼ 22.5 million), and stabilizes under SSP585 (near ∼ 20 million). Sensitivity analysis reveals that each additional half-degree of warming increases the exposed population by ∼ 2.8 × 10⁵ (1.8 %) and raises the exposure share by ∼ 0.36 %. Climate change drives approximately 80 % of the basin-wide exposure increase, while local population dynamics—particularly in the Pearl River Delta—account for over one-fifth of the rise above 3 °C. The Dongjiang River and lower Xijiang River are identified as persistent hotspots, whereas sections of the Beijiang River exhibit relative resilience. These findings underscore the necessity of low-emission pathways and risk-informed adaptation strategies to mitigate future exposure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100632"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145926057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A climate indicator dashboard for communicating climate change in the Okanagan Valley of B.C.","authors":"Sandra Schira ,&nbsp;Anna Warwick Sears ,&nbsp;Jeremy Fyke","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100631","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100631","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Okanagan Valley in British Columbia, Canada, is increasingly vulnerable to climate change, experiencing hotter temperatures, longer and more intense wildfire seasons, extreme cold events, long-term droughts, and less predictable water supplies. Communities now often experience multiple climate-driven extreme events within the same year. Therefore, the Okanagan Basin Water Board (OBWB), a regional water resource management body, recognized the need to support regional decision-makers with effective tools to integrate local climate context into community-scale planning and communication. However, climate change is complex and regional decision makers are not trained climate experts. An effective decision support tool must therefore provide accurate and relevant information in a transparent and intuitive way. Motivated by this need, this study describes scientific methods and design principles used to calculate, visualize and present over 30 locally relevant indicators developed from publicly available weather and climate observation data on the publicly available OBWB Climate Indicators Dashboard. The process involved identifying useful climate impact indicators, understanding available data sets and their limitations, understanding and building trust with the intended audience, and iterating on data visualization design and dashboard wording for maximum impact. By presenting our methods and design principles, we highlight the OBWB Climate Indicators Dashboard as one among an emerging class of community-scale tools to communicate climate change. Based on initial positive feedback of the tool, we hope our case study is useful to others planning to create their own watershed-scale climate communication tools.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100631"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145738522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the importance of the reference data: Uncertainty partitioning of bias-adjusted climate simulations over eastern Canada","authors":"Juliette Lavoie ,&nbsp;Louis-Philippe Caron ,&nbsp;Travis Logan ,&nbsp;Stephen Sobie ,&nbsp;Richard Turcotte ,&nbsp;Edouard Mailhot ,&nbsp;Jasmine Pelletier-Dumont","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100619","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100619","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Bias-adjusted climate simulations are increasingly disseminated through online platforms to support adaptation actions. However, there is no consensus on an operational framework to choose what to include in these “decision-ready” ensembles and for communicating the related uncertainty. In this paper, we use a systematic approach to assess the uncertainty related to bias-adjusted climate simulations across five dimensions: internal variability, greenhouse gases scenario, global climate model, observational reference and bias-adjustment method. We calculate the fraction of uncertainty associated with each dimension for precipitation-based, temperature-based and multivariate indicators over eastern Canada and focus particularly on three locations: Montréal, Gaspé and Kawawachikamach. The results show that the uncertainty associated with the reference dataset can be very large and in some instances can become the first or second largest source of uncertainty. Using simple examples, we show that the resulting differences could lead to different conclusions with respect to some adaptation solutions or possibly create confusion with users. These results raise questions on the robustness of climate projections distributed through these web platforms and the ethical responsibility of data providers to adequately evaluate and communicate the underlying uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100619"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145416089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Too hot to handle: Assessing practitioner climate service needs to advance heat resilience","authors":"K.M. Archie ,&nbsp;D. Hirschfeld ,&nbsp;S. Meerow ,&nbsp;J.C. Arnott ,&nbsp;L. Keith ,&nbsp;J.A. Vano ,&nbsp;E. Mateo","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100606","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100606","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Extreme heat is deadly and it is disproportionately experienced by lower-income, minority, and marginalized community members. Heat practitioners are faced with the dual challenges of taking action to mitigate the level of heat experienced by local residents while preparing communities to manage unavoidable levels of elevated warming. In response to a lack of in-depth information about heat practitioner needs, this work aims to advance our understanding of how efforts to improve climate services may contribute to more effective extreme heat planning and decision-making in the United States. Through a two-round, mixed-methods approach that employed group interviews and a survey, we engaged with 144 heat practitioners from 40 states and Washington, DC. We found that the biggest barriers to extreme heat planning and implementation are a lack of perceived risk and a lack of internal staff capacity, and that practitioners would welcome additional heat related information and tools. The two practitioner “needs” that respondents considered to be most impactful are: regularly updated local-scale extreme heat data collection, and improved information about how extreme heat impacts different systems. We found significant differences in the perceived impactfulness of interventions based on whether a respondent was from a rural or urban area and also based on their level of educational attainment.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Practical implications&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Climate-induced extreme heat is deadly and disproportionately impacts lower-income, minority, and marginalized community members. People working for local and regional governments are responsible for making decisions and implementing actions to reduce the impacts of extreme heat in their communities. Those tasked with that work are referred to here as heat practitioners. To understand their needs we conducted a series of interviews and a survey that engaged over 140 heat practitioners from 40 states and Washington, DC. In this paper we share our findings that bring an in-depth understanding of climate service needs specific to those working to protect people from extreme heat.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;An important finding from our work is that climate services cannot be just about more information, there is a need for building adaptive capacity and support to overcome complex barriers. Specifically we see a clear need to address the silos heat practitioners find themselves in. Additionally, by elevating the importance of heat within communities practitioners will have an easier time working to manage and mitigate this threat.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;We find a strong call for better information that is tailored to local contexts. Heat practitioners said that the most impactful thing that would benefit their work is updated local-scale extreme heat data collection and on-the-ground monitoring. Another highly localized data need was information about the relationship between urban design and extreme heat. We also heard that information","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100606"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144863411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of locus of control and restrictive norms on farmers’ willingness to pay for climate information services in Senegal, West Africa","authors":"Cyrus Muriithi ,&nbsp;Issa Ouedraogo ,&nbsp;Obadiah Mwangi","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100616","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100616","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate variability challenges smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Farmers need tools to help them adapt, such as climate information services (CIS) to enhance resilience and agricultural productivity. This study investigates farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for seasonal CIS in Senegal’s Sédhiou and Tambacounda regions. The research explores regional differences and the role of socioeconomic, psychological, and gender-related factors. Using a mixed-methods approach, we collected data from 708 farmers through probabilistic random sampling. The Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism was employed to elicit WTP. Regression and mediation analysis were conducted to assess direct and indirect effects on WTP. The findings reveal an average WTP of 1,560 CFA (2.6 USD) for CIS, with 36.7% of farmers bidding above the market price, suggesting strong demand for CIS. Younger farmers and women showed higher WTP. High production costs and limited access to credit reduced bidding amounts. An experimental information intervention significantly increased bid amounts, highlighting the critical role of awareness in shaping demand. Mediation analysis showed that internal locus of control (LoC) does not significantly mediate WTP, suggesting that farmers’ belief in personal control has little impact on their economic decisions. However, restrictive gender norms negatively mediated WTP, underscoring how gender-based constraints reduce demand for CIS. These findings emphasize the need for targeted policies to promote CIS adoption, including awareness campaigns, behavioral and gender-responsive CIS delivery formats, and affordable financial services. By addressing both economic and behavioral barriers, policymakers can improve resilience and agricultural productivity through improved access to climate information.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100616"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145220227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Agrometeorological drought early warning as a climate service: SPI projections using SARIMA models for seasonal risk management","authors":"Muhammad Ashraf ,&nbsp;Adnan Arshad ,&nbsp;Farhat Iqbal ,&nbsp;Shabnam Pourshirazi ,&nbsp;Muhammad Usman Azhar ,&nbsp;Urooba Farman Tanoli ,&nbsp;Tofeeq Ahmad ,&nbsp;Alaa Ahmed ,&nbsp;Rashid Bilal","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100622","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100622","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme weather events, such as frequent droughts, pose a significant threat to agriculture and livelihoods in countries such as Pakistan, where agriculture, which employs 62 % of the workforce, is heavily dependent on rainfall. In the current study, a climate service has been developed to develop early warnings for agrometeorological drought by applying Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models to forecast the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) across 6- and 12-month intervals. This innovative approach aims to enhance the capacity for anticipating drought conditions, facilitate more effective agricultural management and decision-making in response to potential water scarcity. By using monthly precipitation data collected from 20 sites between 1991 and 2024, a comprehensive assessment of historical drought occurrences and projected seasonal conditions for the agricultural period from 2025 to 2030 and long-term 2–25 to 2050 are conducted. The best-fit SARIMA models demonstrated high accuracy (validation R² values: 0.86–0.94; RMSE values: 0.31–0.49) across meteorological stations. From 2010 to 2024, the Quetta region experienced 17 months of extreme drought (SPI ≤  − 2.0), indicating that severe droughts were a recurrent phenomenon. Projections for 2025–2030 and 2025–2050, based on historical trends, predict prolonged mild drought conditions (SPI: −1.3 to − 1.7) during the Rabi season in Punjab and Sindh. Balochistan is expected to face severe arid conditions, with the SPI reaching − 2.1 by 2028. The SARIMA model showed high forecasting ability, with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values &gt; 0.81 across all stations, offering useful insights for irrigation planning and crop management. Our research will enable policymakers to forecast yield reductions of 25 %–35 % in drought-prone agrometeorological zones and prioritize resource allocation, providing a vital tool for seasonal risk assessment and serving as an early warning system to help plan climate-smart management practices, promote drought-tolerant crop varieties, and implement high-efficiency irrigation systems, thereby improving the resilience of rain-fed agricultural systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100622"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145416056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Weather and climate information services for pastoralists: A review","authors":"Katharine Vincent ,&nbsp;Simon Mercer ,&nbsp;Ellen Reid ,&nbsp;Claire Bedelian ,&nbsp;Sarah Opitz-Stapleton","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100628","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100628","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There has been an increase in interest in weather and climate information services (WCIS) in the agriculture sector, but pastoralism (extensive rearing of livestock) has received less attention than crop agriculture. This paper presents a scoping review of literature to assess what is known on WCIS for pastoralists from Web of Science, Google Scholar and selected organisations working in these fields. The review generated 51 papers published between 2000 and 2024 covering multiple regions, but with 80% focusing on Africa. Papers address various aspects of WCIS, with particular focus on users. Themes for which there are evidence include the role of indigenous and scientific forecasting, identifying user needs, how to generate and communicate information in such a way as to encourage use, risk perceptions and use of WCIS, including the benefits. The evidence base is small but growing, and there is some commonality of themes with other fields. Challenges persist in how to generate and effectively communicate salient, credible and legitimate information. The particularly strong focus on indigenous and scientific forecasts highlights the importance of indigenous knowledge to many pastoralist communities and raises questions about how best to integrate knowledge types. Future research directions in pastoralist WCIS, like in other fields, are likely to cover issues such as evaluation and sustainability, and also how WCIS can support other adaptation and risk reduction efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100628"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145571581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating weather and climate information services for heat and drought adaptation in Southeast Europe: gaps, opportunities and design principles","authors":"Spyridon Paparrizos ,&nbsp;Dragan Milošević ,&nbsp;Zorica Podraščanin ,&nbsp;Tim Friso Lodewijk ,&nbsp;Raffaele Vignola ,&nbsp;Samuel J. Sutanto ,&nbsp;Maria del Pozo Garcia ,&nbsp;Wouter J. Smolenaars ,&nbsp;Miroslav Vujičić ,&nbsp;Gordana Kranjac-Berisavljevic ,&nbsp;Biljana Basarin","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100626","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100626","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although many Weather and Climate Information Services are available in Southeast Europe, their contribution to enhancing long-term climate resilience remains unclear. This study evaluates the role of WCIS in supporting climate change adaptation in SEE with regard to extreme heat and drought events, and identifies key gaps. In this study, heat and drought refer to perceived conditions of elevated temperature and prolonged precipitation deficit as understood by stakeholders, rather strictly defined meteorological thresholds. The analysis draws on a mixed-methods approach combining bibliometric and market analysis, surveys, and semi-structured interviews, with results reflecting predominantly qualitative, perception-based insights. Findings highlight persistent challenges in WCIS user engagement, stemming from gaps in design and communication. Many services in SEE adopt top-down approaches with limited user involvement and inadequate educational support. Strengthening participation and promoting transparency in information dissemination are crucial. Tailoring WCIS to specific sectors, such as agriculture, public health, and water management, can help ensure relevance to local needs. Technical challenges remain regarding reliability, trustworthiness and performance of WCIS related to heat- and drought-related impacts. The study concludes with five key recommendations: 1) improve cross-scale engagement, 2) ensure transparency, 3) address sector-specific needs, 4) enhance user-friendliness, and 5) increase reliability and trust.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100626"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145465734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Crop choice advisory for the West African Sudan Savanna based on soil type and presowing rainfall forecasts: A machine learning residual model approach","authors":"Toshichika Iizumi ,&nbsp;Kohtaro Iseki ,&nbsp;Kenta Ikazaki ,&nbsp;Toru Sakai ,&nbsp;Shintaro Kobayashi ,&nbsp;Benoit Joseph Batieno","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100605","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100605","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Crop choice is a critical decision for rainfed smallholder farmers when allocating land between food and cash crops. To inform crop choice, process-based models need to simulate yield responses that are both eco-physiologically plausible and quantitatively accurate. Achieving this is difficult when data quality and scarcity hinder model calibration. Here, we present a modification of a process model simulation performed using a machine learning residual model trained to predict the error in the process model-simulated yields, relative to field experimental data, from growing conditions. Using the random forest (RF) algorithm, residual models were developed for cowpea, groundnut, soybean, maize, millet, and sorghum cultivated at three locations in Burkina Faso. The RF residual models improved the agreement between the process model simulations and the field data while preserving plausible crop-specific rainfall–yield relationships and their variation across soil types with differing water retention or drainage capacities (i.e., Lixisols and Plinthosols). Subsequently, process model simulations for 1994–2023 were adjusted using the RF residual models. The findings showed that the better performing crops varied with respect to soil type and seasonal rainfall. However, the utility of presowing rainfall forecasts for dynamic crop choice was limited by relatively high miss rates. The proposed crop choice advisory is expected to increase the income and nutrient status of smallholder farmers in dryland regions of West Africa under rainfall variability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100605"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144863330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}