Climate Services最新文献_第2页

Weather and climate information services for pastoralists: A review 牧民天气和气候信息服务综述

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100628

Katharine Vincent , Simon Mercer , Ellen Reid , Claire Bedelian , Sarah Opitz-Stapleton

There has been an increase in interest in weather and climate information services (WCIS) in the agriculture sector, but pastoralism (extensive rearing of livestock) has received less attention than crop agriculture. This paper presents a scoping review of literature to assess what is known on WCIS for pastoralists from Web of Science, Google Scholar and selected organisations working in these fields. The review generated 51 papers published between 2000 and 2024 covering multiple regions, but with 80% focusing on Africa. Papers address various aspects of WCIS, with particular focus on users. Themes for which there are evidence include the role of indigenous and scientific forecasting, identifying user needs, how to generate and communicate information in such a way as to encourage use, risk perceptions and use of WCIS, including the benefits. The evidence base is small but growing, and there is some commonality of themes with other fields. Challenges persist in how to generate and effectively communicate salient, credible and legitimate information. The particularly strong focus on indigenous and scientific forecasts highlights the importance of indigenous knowledge to many pastoralist communities and raises questions about how best to integrate knowledge types. Future research directions in pastoralist WCIS, like in other fields, are likely to cover issues such as evaluation and sustainability, and also how WCIS can support other adaptation and risk reduction efforts.

农业部门对天气和气候信息服务（WCIS）的兴趣有所增加，但与作物农业相比，畜牧业（广泛饲养牲畜）受到的关注较少。本文对来自Web of Science、b谷歌Scholar和在这些领域工作的选定组织的文献进行了范围审查，以评估牧民WCIS的已知情况。该综述在2000年至2024年期间发表了51篇论文，涵盖多个地区，但其中80%集中在非洲。论文讨论了WCIS的各个方面，特别关注用户。有证据支持的主题包括：本地和科学预测的作用、确定用户需求、如何以鼓励使用的方式产生和传播信息、风险认知和使用世界信息中心，包括其益处。证据基础虽小但在不断增长，并且与其他领域的主题有一些共性。如何产生和有效地传播突出的、可信的和合法的信息仍然是挑战。对土著和科学预测的特别重视突出了土著知识对许多牧民社区的重要性，并提出了如何最好地整合各种知识的问题。与其他领域一样，牧民WCIS未来的研究方向可能包括评估和可持续性等问题，以及WCIS如何支持其他适应和降低风险的努力。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating weather and climate information services for heat and drought adaptation in Southeast Europe: gaps, opportunities and design principles 评估东南欧适应高温和干旱的天气和气候信息服务：差距、机会和设计原则

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100626

Spyridon Paparrizos , Dragan Milošević , Zorica Podraščanin , Tim Friso Lodewijk , Raffaele Vignola , Samuel J. Sutanto , Maria del Pozo Garcia , Wouter J. Smolenaars , Miroslav Vujičić , Gordana Kranjac-Berisavljevic , Biljana Basarin

Although many Weather and Climate Information Services are available in Southeast Europe, their contribution to enhancing long-term climate resilience remains unclear. This study evaluates the role of WCIS in supporting climate change adaptation in SEE with regard to extreme heat and drought events, and identifies key gaps. In this study, heat and drought refer to perceived conditions of elevated temperature and prolonged precipitation deficit as understood by stakeholders, rather strictly defined meteorological thresholds. The analysis draws on a mixed-methods approach combining bibliometric and market analysis, surveys, and semi-structured interviews, with results reflecting predominantly qualitative, perception-based insights. Findings highlight persistent challenges in WCIS user engagement, stemming from gaps in design and communication. Many services in SEE adopt top-down approaches with limited user involvement and inadequate educational support. Strengthening participation and promoting transparency in information dissemination are crucial. Tailoring WCIS to specific sectors, such as agriculture, public health, and water management, can help ensure relevance to local needs. Technical challenges remain regarding reliability, trustworthiness and performance of WCIS related to heat- and drought-related impacts. The study concludes with five key recommendations: 1) improve cross-scale engagement, 2) ensure transparency, 3) address sector-specific needs, 4) enhance user-friendliness, and 5) increase reliability and trust.

虽然东南欧有许多天气和气候信息服务，但它们对增强长期气候适应能力的贡献尚不清楚。本研究评估了WCIS在支持SEE地区对极端高温和干旱事件的气候变化适应方面的作用，并确定了关键差距。在本研究中，高温和干旱是指利益相关者所理解的温度升高和降水不足延长的感知条件，而不是严格定义的气象阈值。该分析采用了文献计量学和市场分析、调查和半结构化访谈相结合的混合方法，其结果主要反映了定性的、基于感知的见解。调查结果强调了WCIS用户参与方面的持续挑战，这些挑战源于设计和沟通方面的差距。SEE的许多服务采用自上而下的方法，用户参与有限，教育支持不足。加强参与和促进信息传播的透明度至关重要。根据农业、公共卫生和水管理等具体部门调整世界卫生信息系统，有助于确保与当地需求相适应。与高温和干旱相关的影响有关的WCIS的可靠性、可信度和性能方面的技术挑战仍然存在。该研究总结了五项关键建议：1)改善跨规模参与；2)确保透明度；3)满足特定行业需求；4)增强用户友好性；5)提高可靠性和信任度。

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引用次数: 0

A hybrid-model-based probabilistic forecast procedure for the seasonal frequency of tropical cyclones 基于混合模式的热带气旋季节频率概率预报方法

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100627

Youngeun Kim, Namyoung Kang

For effective prevention of climatic disasters from tropical cyclones (TCs), forecast information on TC activity needs to be developed in a form that can be practically exploited in the public. This study aims to construct a probabilistic forecast procedure for the seasonal number of TCs occurring over the western North Pacific based on a hybrid modeling technique. First, a numerical ensemble model, global seasonal forecasting system version 6 (GloSea6), is employed to the hybrid model, where the ensemble outputs are used for dynamical inputs to the statistical module. Then, a Poisson regression modeling is applied to the statistical module and the predictive probability distribution is produced. Lastly, a probabilistic forecast procedure using five forecast categories such as “Below Normal”, “Normal or Below Normal”, “Normal”, “Normal or Above Normal”, and “Above Normal” is proposed based on the probability distribution. All procedure is demonstrated and verified using GloSea6’s hindcasts over the 24 years (1993–2016) during six months (from June to November). This study contributes to disaster management by enhancing the usability and interpretability of seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts, thereby supporting anticipatory decision-making under conditions of climatic uncertainty.

为了有效地预防热带气旋造成的气候灾害，需要发展热带气旋活动的预报资料，使其能够为公众实际利用。本研究旨在建立一个基于混合模式技术的北太平洋西部tc季节数量的概率预报程序。首先，将全球季节预报系统版本6 （GloSea6）的数值集合模型用于混合模型，其中集合输出用于统计模块的动态输入。然后，对统计模块进行泊松回归建模，得到预测概率分布。最后，提出了基于概率分布的“低于正常”、“正常或低于正常”、“正常”、“正常或高于正常”、“高于正常”5个预测类别的概率预测程序。使用GloSea6在6个月内（从6月到11月）对24年（1993-2016）的预测进行了演示和验证。这项研究通过提高季节性热带气旋预报的可用性和可解释性，从而有助于灾害管理，从而支持在气候不确定条件下的预期决策。

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引用次数: 0

On the importance of the reference data: Uncertainty partitioning of bias-adjusted climate simulations over eastern Canada 参考数据的重要性：加拿大东部经过偏差调整的气候模拟的不确定性划分

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100619

Juliette Lavoie , Louis-Philippe Caron , Travis Logan , Stephen Sobie , Richard Turcotte , Edouard Mailhot , Jasmine Pelletier-Dumont

Bias-adjusted climate simulations are increasingly disseminated through online platforms to support adaptation actions. However, there is no consensus on an operational framework to choose what to include in these “decision-ready” ensembles and for communicating the related uncertainty. In this paper, we use a systematic approach to assess the uncertainty related to bias-adjusted climate simulations across five dimensions: internal variability, greenhouse gases scenario, global climate model, observational reference and bias-adjustment method. We calculate the fraction of uncertainty associated with each dimension for precipitation-based, temperature-based and multivariate indicators over eastern Canada and focus particularly on three locations: Montréal, Gaspé and Kawawachikamach. The results show that the uncertainty associated with the reference dataset can be very large and in some instances can become the first or second largest source of uncertainty. Using simple examples, we show that the resulting differences could lead to different conclusions with respect to some adaptation solutions or possibly create confusion with users. These results raise questions on the robustness of climate projections distributed through these web platforms and the ethical responsibility of data providers to adequately evaluate and communicate the underlying uncertainty.

偏差调整后的气候模拟越来越多地通过在线平台传播，以支持适应行动。然而，对于选择在这些“准备好决策”的集合中包含什么以及沟通相关不确定性的操作框架，并没有达成共识。本文采用系统方法，从内部变率、温室气体情景、全球气候模式、观测参考和偏倚调整方法五个维度评估了与偏倚调整气候模拟相关的不确定性。我们计算了加拿大东部地区基于降水、基于温度和多变量指标的每个维度的不确定性的比例，并特别关注三个地点：montrsamal、gasaspee和Kawawachikamach。结果表明，与参考数据集相关的不确定性可能非常大，在某些情况下可能成为不确定性的第一或第二大来源。通过简单的例子，我们表明，由此产生的差异可能导致对某些适应解决方案的不同结论，或者可能对用户造成混淆。这些结果对通过这些网络平台发布的气候预测的稳健性以及数据提供者充分评估和传达潜在不确定性的道德责任提出了质疑。

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引用次数: 0

Determinants of public purchase intention towards refined health meteorological Services: Evidence from Jiangsu Province, China 公众购买精细卫生气象服务意愿的决定因素：来自中国江苏省的证据

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100625

Qi Zhang , Jingxia Cao , Andi Wang , Liangyu Ji , Yuning Wei , Mingyang Zhang

Climate change-driven health risks are exacerbating the global disease burden and mortality, making the development of refined health meteorological services a critical strategy for addressing gaps in public health care preparedness. This study examines public purchase intention towards refined health meteorological services, employing the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) and structural equation modelling (SEM). Data were collected from 535 urban residents in Jiangsu Province, and Likert-scale items were used to measure purchase intention for very short-term (0–24 h) weather forecasts, extended-range (60–90 d) weather forecasts, and air quality services (hourly PM2.5/SO₂/NOx). The results indicate that 60–65 % of the respondents expressed purchase intention, with SEM identifying the need for air quality information services (β = 0.803, p < 0.01) as the strongest driver, followed by attitudes towards refined health meteorological services (β = 0.368, p < 0.01), and the need for very short-term/extended-range weather forecasts (β = 0.124, p < 0.05). Subjective norms currently showed no significant effect. The findings have substantive implications for governmental stakeholders (e.g., meteorological and public health authorities) and industrial stakeholders (e.g., health technology and service companies) in fostering the commercialization of health meteorological services at the population level. The conclusions are highly informative and transferable to other urbanized areas undergoing comparable socioeconomic development and confronting analogous climate-related health challenges.

气候变化导致的健康风险正在加剧全球疾病负担和死亡率，这使得发展完善的卫生气象服务成为解决公共卫生保健准备方面差距的一项关键战略。本研究采用计划行为理论（TPB）和结构方程模型（SEM）研究公众对精细卫生气象服务的购买意愿。本研究收集了535名江苏省城市居民的数据，并采用李克特量表来衡量短期（0-24小时）天气预报、大范围（60-90天）天气预报和空气质量服务（每小时PM2.5/SO2/NOx）的购买意愿。结果表明，60 - 65%的受访者表达了购买意愿，其中SEM认为对空气质量信息服务的需求（β = 0.803, p < 0.01）是最强烈的驱动因素，其次是对精细化卫生气象服务的需求（β = 0.368, p < 0.01），以及对极短期/长范围天气预报的需求（β = 0.124, p < 0.05）。主观规范目前效果不显著。研究结果对政府利益攸关方（如气象和公共卫生当局）和工业利益攸关方（如卫生技术和服务公司）在促进人口一级卫生气象服务商业化方面具有实质性影响。这些结论具有很强的信息性，可用于其他经历类似社会经济发展并面临类似气候相关健康挑战的城市化地区。

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引用次数: 0

Community vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning: A workshop methodology to expedite progress 社区脆弱性评估和适应规划：加快进展的研讨会方法

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100621

Deb Rudnick , Lara Hansen , Marc Stern , Caleb O’brien , Jenn Brousseau , Arden Drake , Eric Mielbrecht

We lay out a methodology for planning and implementing place-based climate adaptation workshops, which are an increasingly commonly used tool to help communities prepare for and respond to climate change impacts. This methodology was created using literature from the field, a Delphi study to generate consensus-based best practices for effective workshops in the United States, and the authors’ experiences implementing the methodology at workshops in eight U.S. communities across a range of geographies, political contexts, and climate exposures. Workshop facilitators guided participants through vulnerability assessments for their communities, introduced tools and data for supporting this work, and engaged participants in break-out group discussions to co-develop adaptation solutions for increasing community resilience to identified climate change vulnerabilities. Our work supports that workshop effectiveness is enhanced when key conditions are put in place, including encouraging a diversity of participation; reducing barriers to participation; providing expert facilitation; sharing locally relevant examples; and creating space for co-generated solutions that are feasible and for which leaders and partners are identified to lead implementation. We share evidence that, while workshops were recent, communities have started undertaking adaptation solutions identified during the climate adaptation workshops and are translating them into planning and implementation in their communities. In providing this methodology, we aim to share a case study for creating and conducting effective, capacity-building place-based climate adaptation workshops that can help communities build resilience to climate change.

我们提出了一种规划和实施基于地点的气候适应研讨会的方法，这是一种越来越常用的工具，可以帮助社区准备和应对气候变化的影响。该方法是利用该领域的文献、德尔福研究（Delphi study）为美国有效的研讨会生成基于共识的最佳实践，以及作者在美国八个社区的研讨会上实施该方法的经验而创建的，这些研讨会跨越了一系列地理、政治背景和气候风险。研讨会主持人指导与会者对其社区进行脆弱性评估，介绍支持这项工作的工具和数据，并让与会者参加分组讨论，共同制定适应解决方案，以提高社区对已确定的气候变化脆弱性的抵御能力。我们的工作支持，当关键条件到位时，包括鼓励多样化参与，讲习班的有效性就会得到提高；减少参与障碍；提供专家协助；分享本地相关的例子；并为共同产生的解决方案创造空间，这些解决方案是可行的，并且确定了领导者和合作伙伴来领导实施。我们分享的证据表明，虽然讲习班是最近举办的，但社区已经开始采取在气候适应讲习班期间确定的适应解决方案，并正在将其转化为社区的规划和实施。在提供这种方法的过程中，我们的目标是分享一个案例研究，以创建和开展有效的、能力建设的、基于地点的气候适应讲习班，帮助社区建立对气候变化的适应能力。

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引用次数: 0

Agrometeorological drought early warning as a climate service: SPI projections using SARIMA models for seasonal risk management 农业气象干旱预警作为气候服务：利用SARIMA模型进行季节性风险管理的SPI预测

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100622

Muhammad Ashraf , Adnan Arshad , Farhat Iqbal , Shabnam Pourshirazi , Muhammad Usman Azhar , Urooba Farman Tanoli , Tofeeq Ahmad , Alaa Ahmed , Rashid Bilal

Extreme weather events, such as frequent droughts, pose a significant threat to agriculture and livelihoods in countries such as Pakistan, where agriculture, which employs 62 % of the workforce, is heavily dependent on rainfall. In the current study, a climate service has been developed to develop early warnings for agrometeorological drought by applying Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models to forecast the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) across 6- and 12-month intervals. This innovative approach aims to enhance the capacity for anticipating drought conditions, facilitate more effective agricultural management and decision-making in response to potential water scarcity. By using monthly precipitation data collected from 20 sites between 1991 and 2024, a comprehensive assessment of historical drought occurrences and projected seasonal conditions for the agricultural period from 2025 to 2030 and long-term 2–25 to 2050 are conducted. The best-fit SARIMA models demonstrated high accuracy (validation R² values: 0.86–0.94; RMSE values: 0.31–0.49) across meteorological stations. From 2010 to 2024, the Quetta region experienced 17 months of extreme drought (SPI ≤ − 2.0), indicating that severe droughts were a recurrent phenomenon. Projections for 2025–2030 and 2025–2050, based on historical trends, predict prolonged mild drought conditions (SPI: −1.3 to − 1.7) during the Rabi season in Punjab and Sindh. Balochistan is expected to face severe arid conditions, with the SPI reaching − 2.1 by 2028. The SARIMA model showed high forecasting ability, with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values > 0.81 across all stations, offering useful insights for irrigation planning and crop management. Our research will enable policymakers to forecast yield reductions of 25 %–35 % in drought-prone agrometeorological zones and prioritize resource allocation, providing a vital tool for seasonal risk assessment and serving as an early warning system to help plan climate-smart management practices, promote drought-tolerant crop varieties, and implement high-efficiency irrigation systems, thereby improving the resilience of rain-fed agricultural systems.

极端天气事件，如频繁的干旱，对巴基斯坦等国的农业和生计构成重大威胁，在这些国家，农业雇佣了62%的劳动力，严重依赖降雨。在目前的研究中，已经开发了一个气候服务，通过应用季节自回归综合移动平均（SARIMA）模型来预测标准化降水指数（SPI）在6个月和12个月的间隔来开发农业气象干旱的早期预警。这种创新方法旨在提高预测干旱条件的能力，促进更有效的农业管理和决策，以应对潜在的水资源短缺。利用1991 ~ 2024年20个站点逐月降水资料，对2025 ~ 2030年农业期和长期2 ~ 25 ~ 2050年农业期的历史干旱发生率和季节预测条件进行了综合评价。最佳拟合的SARIMA模型在气象站间具有较高的精度（验证R2为0.86 ~ 0.94，RMSE为0.31 ~ 0.49）。2010 - 2024年，Quetta地区经历了17个月的极端干旱（SPI≤- 2.0），表明严重干旱是一种经常性现象。根据历史趋势对2025-2030年和2025-2050年的预测，旁遮普和信德省拉比季将出现长期轻度干旱（SPI: - 1.3至- 1.7）。预计俾路支省将面临严重的干旱条件，到2028年SPI将达到- 2.1。SARIMA模型显示出较高的预测能力，所有站点的Nash-Sutcliffe效率值为0.81，为灌溉规划和作物管理提供了有用的见解。我们的研究将使政策制定者能够预测干旱易发农业气象区减产25% - 35%，并确定资源分配的优先顺序，为季节性风险评估提供重要工具，并作为早期预警系统，帮助规划气候智能型管理实践，推广耐旱作物品种，实施高效灌溉系统，从而提高雨养农业系统的恢复能力。

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引用次数: 0

Bridging the usability gap: Enhancing climate risk communication through E-newsletter 缩小可用性差距：通过电子通讯加强气候风险沟通

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100624

Deepika Swami , Devanathan Parthasarathy , Kamlesh Yagnik , Panagiotis Karamanos

Despite advancements in climate warning systems, significant “usability gaps” persist in translating scientific information into actionable insights for policymakers and local communities. These gaps arise from discrepancies between what scientists provide and what end-users find applicable for decision-making. This study aims to bridge these gaps by developing an E-newsletter, which is conceived as an educational and informational decision-support tool that links climate scientists and meteorologists (senders) with government and non-government decision-makers (primary recipients) to support the development of locally relevant adaptation and mitigation policies. A key enhancement to the framework is the explicit integration of “Access” as a core dimension alongside usability and relevance. This recognizes infrastructural, connectivity, and literacy barriers that can limit the engagement with climate information. The research proposes multi-modal dissemination strategies to overcome these limitations, enabling benefits to both primary and secondary audiences. For this, we conducted a survey of 111 officials across diverse government and non-government sectors in 17 cities and 20 states of India. The survey explored: a) their understanding of climate risks in their regions and sectors; b) the type of information needed to design effective mitigation and adaptation plans; c) their evaluation of existing communication channels (e.g., newsletters) based on content, quality, timeliness, effectiveness, and usability; and d) their preferences for the design and content of E-newsletters tailored to support risk mitigation and adaptation.

Findings revealed a strong preference for E-newsletters featuring regional case studies, content in regional languages, and visual aids such as images, graphs, and figures. Based on these insights, we developed an E-newsletter template, with special emphasis on layout, design, and key features. It can enhance the usability of climate information, aiding regional and local-scale mitigation, adaptation, and risk reduction efforts.

尽管气候预警系统取得了进步，但在将科学信息转化为决策者和当地社区的可操作见解方面，仍然存在重大的“可用性差距”。这些差距源于科学家提供的信息和最终用户认为适用于决策的信息之间的差异。本研究旨在通过编写一份电子通讯来弥合这些差距，该通讯被设想为一种教育和信息决策支持工具，将气候科学家和气象学家（发送者）与政府和非政府决策者（主要接收者）联系起来，以支持制定与当地相关的适应和缓解政策。该框架的一个关键增强是将“访问”与可用性和相关性一起明确集成为核心维度。这承认基础设施、连通性和识字障碍可能限制人们接触气候信息。本研究提出了多模式传播策略来克服这些限制，使初级和次级受众都能受益。为此，我们对印度17个城市和20个邦的111名不同政府和非政府部门的官员进行了调查。调查探讨了：a)他们对所在地区和行业的气候风险的理解；B)设计有效的缓解和适应计划所需的信息类型；C)基于内容、质量、及时性、有效性和可用性对现有沟通渠道（如通讯）的评价；d)他们对为支持减轻和适应风险而量身定制的电子通讯的设计和内容的偏好。调查结果显示，人们对以地区案例研究、地区语言内容以及图像、图表和数字等视觉辅助工具为特色的电子通讯有强烈的偏好。基于这些见解，我们开发了一个电子通讯模板，特别强调布局、设计和关键功能。它可以提高气候信息的可用性，帮助区域和地方层面的减缓、适应和减少风险的努力。

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引用次数: 0

High time- and spatial-resolution climate scenarios of the DISTENDER project according to statistical and dynamical downscaling 基于统计和动力降尺度的DISTENDER项目的高时空分辨率气候情景

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100623

Robert Monjo , Yassmin H. Essa , Carlos Prado-López , Manpreet Kaur , Darío Redolat , César Paradinas , Dominic Royé , Bodo Ahrens , Roberto San José

This paper discusses statistical and dynamical methods used to produce local (grid-spacing < 4 km) and European (∼10 km) climate scenarios that were used as input for multi-sectoral impact models in the DevelopIng STratEgies by integrating mitigatioN, aDaptation and participation to climate changE Risks (DISTENDER) project, and shares the main results with a special focus on temperature and precipitation. The statistical downscaling consisted of three stages: (1) a parametric quantile mapping at a daily scale; (2) an analogous-transference function of hourly curves for each day, and (3) a classical geostatistical downscaling. This three-stage technique was applied to three representative Earth System Models according to three different climate-change level (being EC-EARTH3-Veg the medium case) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). In addition, dynamical downscaling was also considered. Particularly, the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model downscaled the EC-EARTH3-Veg model to computationally costly km-scale resolution under all four pathways. Both downscaling approaches show consistent behaviour for the downscaled model under the different pathways. Results indicate historical biases in precipitation about ± 10 % in general, while temperature biases ranged from −2°C to + 1°C across different regions and seasons. Under SSP5-8.5, summer precipitation in southern Europe is projected to decrease by up to 20 %, while northern Europe experiences increases of + 10 % to + 15 %. Temperature increases under the same scenario reach + 5°C in summer across southern Europe, with smaller increases of + 2°C to + 3°C in northern regions. These findings on management for uncertainty levels demonstrate the utility of combined downscaling approaches for local climate risk assessment and adaptation strategies.

本文讨论了用于生成本地（网格间距4公里）和欧洲（~ 10公里）气候情景的统计和动力学方法，这些情景通过整合减缓、适应和参与气候变化风险（DISTENDER）项目，被用作发展战略中多部门影响模型的输入，并分享了主要结果，特别关注温度和降水。统计降尺度包括三个阶段：(1)按日尺度进行参数分位数映射；(2)逐日逐时曲线的类似传递函数；(3)经典地统计学降尺度。在4条共享的社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5）下，根据3种不同的气候变化水平（EC-EARTH3-Veg为中等情况），将该三阶段技术应用于3个具有代表性的地球系统模型。此外，还考虑了动态降尺度。特别是，在所有四种路径下，ICOsahedral非流体静力模型将EC-EARTH3-Veg模型缩小到计算成本很高的千米尺度分辨率。两种降尺度方法对不同路径下的降尺度模型表现出一致的行为。结果表明，降水的历史偏差一般为±10%，而不同地区和季节的温度偏差范围为−2°C至+ 1°C。在SSP5-8.5下，南欧夏季降水预计将减少20%，而北欧将增加10%至15%。在相同情景下，整个南欧夏季的温度升高将达到+ 5°C，北部地区的温度升高幅度较小，为+ 2°C至+ 3°C。这些关于不确定性水平管理的研究结果表明，综合降尺度方法对当地气候风险评估和适应战略具有实用价值。

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引用次数: 0

Debris flow risk characteristics and potential spatial mitigation strategies under extreme rainfall events 极端降雨事件下的泥石流风险特征和潜在的空间缓解策略

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100618

Tzu-Ling Chen , Yu-Hsuan Wu , Yin-Hao Chiu

This study examines the vulnerability of regions prone to debris flow disasters in Taiwan, focusing on the intersection of environmental, socioeconomic, and adaptive capacity factors. Using a composite vulnerability index based on exposure, sensitivity, and resilience, we integrate data from multiple sources to assess the regional risks posed by extreme rainfall events and landslide susceptibility. The study emphasizes the importance of location-specific vulnerability factors, including topography, land use, and infrastructure, in understanding the spatial distribution of disaster risks. By applying principal component analysis (PCA), the research identifies key components of potential impact and adaptation capacity, providing a nuanced understanding of disaster resilience. Empirical analysis is conducted in Nantou County, a region heavily impacted by debris flow events due to its role as a headwater for several major rivers in Taiwan. The study finds that areas with high exposure to rainfall and slope hazards, coupled with low adaptive capacity, are at significant risk of increased disaster losses. The findings highlight the urgent need for targeted disaster management policies, including enhanced infrastructure, community mobilization, and resource allocation in vulnerable regions. This research contributes to the growing body of knowledge on regional vulnerability assessments and provides a foundation for more effective disaster risk management and climate adaptation strategies.

本研究探讨台湾泥石流易发地区的脆弱性，重点探讨环境因素、社会经济因素和适应能力因素的交集。利用基于暴露、敏感性和恢复力的复合脆弱性指数，我们整合了来自多个来源的数据，以评估极端降雨事件和滑坡易感性所带来的区域风险。该研究强调了特定地点的脆弱性因素，包括地形、土地利用和基础设施，在了解灾害风险的空间分布方面的重要性。通过应用主成分分析（PCA），该研究确定了潜在影响和适应能力的关键组成部分，提供了对灾害恢复能力的细致理解。实证分析以南投县为例，南投县是台湾几条主要河流的源头，受泥石流事件影响较大。该研究发现，受降雨和斜坡灾害影响较大的地区，加上适应能力较低，面临着灾害损失增加的重大风险。研究结果强调，迫切需要制定有针对性的灾害管理政策，包括加强基础设施建设、社区动员和脆弱地区的资源分配。这项研究有助于增加区域脆弱性评估的知识体系，并为更有效的灾害风险管理和气候适应战略提供基础。

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