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Demand disagreement 需求的分歧
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104191
Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen , Philipp Illeditsch
Disagreement about macroeconomic fundamentals accounts for only part of the disagreement about future interest rates, creating a “disagreement correlation” puzzle. This puzzle arises because standard equilibrium models with belief differences predict a strong link between asset return disagreement and fundamental disagreement, a link not supported by the data. We address this puzzle by introducing a model where disagreement about future demand for savings—driven by disagreement over the prevalence of patient versus impatient investors in the economy—generates asset return disagreement. Our mechanism produces stochastic yield volatility, time-varying bond risk premia, and an upward-sloping yield curve. Empirically, we construct a proxy for demand disagreement by isolating the component of yield disagreement unrelated to disagreement about macro-fundamentals. This proxy is positively related to yields and their volatilities, and predicts future bond risk premia, consistent with the predictions of our demand disagreement model.
对宏观经济基本面的分歧只是对未来利率的分歧的一部分,这造成了一个“分歧相关性”之谜。这一难题之所以出现,是因为具有信念差异的标准均衡模型预测了资产回报差异和根本差异之间的强烈联系,而这种联系并没有得到数据的支持。我们通过引入一个模型来解决这个难题,在这个模型中,对未来储蓄需求的分歧——由对经济中耐心投资者和不耐烦投资者的普遍程度的分歧所驱动——产生了资产回报的分歧。我们的机制产生随机收益率波动、时变债券风险溢价和向上倾斜的收益率曲线。在经验上,我们通过隔离与宏观基本面分歧无关的收益率分歧的组成部分,构建了需求分歧的代理。该代理与收益率及其波动率呈正相关,并预测未来债券风险溢价,与我们的需求分歧模型的预测一致。
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引用次数: 0
Implicit extrapolation and the beliefs channel of investment demand 隐性外推与投资需求的信念通道
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104172
Haoyang Liu , Christopher Palmer
We document implicit extrapolation in investment decision-making that exceeds the extrapolation inferable from stated expectations. Locally experienced returns predict individual real-estate investment decisions even conditional on an investor’s forecasted home-price growth and risk aversion. Moreover, estimates of this experience effect on investment are larger than implied by the combined effect of past returns on stated expectations and stated expectations on investment. We demonstrate that heterogeneous forecast confidence helps explain why many investors rely on past returns over their survey-elicited forecasts. As their rationale, such survey respondents frequently cite intentional extrapolation or a lack of confidence in other belief factors.
我们记录了投资决策中的隐含外推,超出了从陈述预期推断的外推。当地经验丰富的回报预测了个人的房地产投资决策,甚至取决于投资者对房价增长和风险厌恶程度的预测。此外,这种经验对投资的影响的估计比过去回报对既定预期和既定预期对投资的综合影响所暗示的要大。我们证明,异质预测信心有助于解释为什么许多投资者依赖于过去的回报,而不是他们的调查引发的预测。作为他们的理由,这些调查的受访者经常引用故意外推或对其他信念因素缺乏信心。
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引用次数: 0
Dealer balance sheets and bidding behavior in the Bank of England’s QE reverse auctions 英国央行量化宽松反向拍卖中的交易商资产负债表和竞价行为
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104182
Lena Boneva , Jakub Kastl , Filip Zikes
We study dealers’ bidding behavior in the Bank of England’s quantitative easing (QE) reverse auctions. Using a granular dataset on both accepted and rejected offers together with an equilibrium model of bidding behavior, we estimate dealers’ valuations of securities offered to the Bank of England. We also recover the rents accruing to dealers from participating in the auctions as opposed to liquidating gilts in the secondary market, thereby possibly causing prices to change. These rents or so-called ”liquidity benefits” are largest in the early phases of QE implemented during the Global Financial Crisis, suggesting that QE may be particularly effective in restoring smooth market functioning when market participants are facing large liquidity shocks. Finally, we document that dealers’ valuations vary significantly with the amount of interest rate risk acquired in the secondary gilt market before the auction and with dealers’ regulatory capital.
本文研究了英国央行量化宽松反向拍卖中交易商的竞价行为。我们使用接受和拒绝报价的颗粒数据集以及投标行为的均衡模型,估计了交易商对提供给英格兰银行的证券的估值。我们还从参与拍卖的交易商那里收回租金,而不是在二级市场上清算金边债券,从而可能导致价格变化。这些租金或所谓的“流动性收益”在全球金融危机期间实施的量化宽松的早期阶段是最大的,这表明,当市场参与者面临巨大的流动性冲击时,量化宽松可能在恢复平稳的市场运作方面特别有效。最后,我们发现交易商的估值随拍卖前在二级金边债券市场获得的利率风险金额和交易商的监管资本而显著变化。
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引用次数: 0
Data and welfare in credit markets 信贷市场的数据和福利
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104171
Mark Jansen , Fabian Nagel , Constantine Yannelis , Anthony Lee Zhang
We show how to measure the welfare effects arising from increased data availability. When lenders have more data on prospective borrower costs, they can charge prices that are more aligned with these costs. This increases total social welfare and transfers surplus across borrower types. We show that under certain assumptions the magnitudes of these welfare changes can be estimated using only quantity and price data. Applying our methodology to bankruptcy flag removal, we find that in a counterfactual world where bankruptcy flags are never removed from credit reports, previously-bankrupt borrowers’ surplus decreases substantially, whereas efficiency increases only modestly.
我们展示了如何衡量增加数据可用性所产生的福利效应。当贷款机构掌握了更多关于潜在借款人成本的数据时,它们就可以收取与这些成本更一致的价格。这增加了总社会福利,并在借款人类型之间转移盈余。我们表明,在某些假设下,这些福利变化的幅度可以仅使用数量和价格数据来估计。将我们的方法应用于破产旗帜移除,我们发现在一个反事实的世界中,破产旗帜从未从信用报告中移除,先前破产的借款人的盈余大幅减少,而效率仅适度增加。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring regulatory complexity 衡量监管复杂性
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104186
Jean-Edouard Colliard , Co-Pierre Georg
We propose a framework to study regulatory complexity, based on concepts from computer science. We distinguish different dimensions of complexity, classify existing measures, develop new ones, compute them on three examples — Basel I, the Dodd–Frank Act, and the European Banking Authority’s reporting rules — and test them using experiments and a survey on compliance costs. We highlight two measures that capture complexity beyond the length of a regulation. We propose a quantitative approach to the policy trade-off between regulatory complexity and precision.
基于计算机科学的概念,我们提出了一个研究监管复杂性的框架。我们区分了复杂性的不同维度,对现有措施进行分类,开发新的措施,以三个例子(巴塞尔协议I、多德-弗兰克法案和欧洲银行管理局的报告规则)计算它们,并使用实验和合规成本调查对它们进行测试。我们重点介绍了两项衡量法规长度以外复杂性的指标。我们提出了一种定量的方法来衡量监管复杂性和精确性之间的政策权衡。
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引用次数: 0
Heterogeneous clienteles and dealer networks 异构的客户和经销商网络
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104185
Batchimeg Sambalaibat
This paper studies a search-based model of OTC markets in which clients with heterogeneous trading needs direct their trades to one of ex-ante identical dealers. The main insight of the paper is that the way clients sort across dealers shapes dealer-to-dealer trading patterns and, in turn, generates a core–periphery interdealer network structure. Dealers in the model become heterogeneous because they attract different clients in equilibrium. Some dealers attract clients who trade frequently (e.g., index funds); others attract clients with infrequent trading needs (e.g., pension funds). Dealers attracting clients with frequent trading needs receive a larger volume of client orders, trade more with other dealers, and, as a result, form the core of the interdealer network. Conversely, dealers specializing in clients with infrequent trading needs form the periphery. I also show that accounting for client heterogeneity across dealers (a) challenges standard measurements and interpretations of bid–ask spreads and (b) generates predictions on bid–ask spreads and dealer centrality consistent with the empirical literature.
本文研究了一个基于搜索的场外交易市场模型,在该模型中,具有异质交易需求的客户将其交易直接指向一个事前相同的交易商。本文的主要观点是,客户在经销商之间进行排序的方式塑造了经销商对经销商的交易模式,进而产生了一个核心-外围的经销商间网络结构。模型中的经销商变得异质,因为他们均衡地吸引不同的客户。一些交易商吸引频繁交易的客户(如指数基金);另一些则吸引不经常交易需求的客户(例如,养老基金)。吸引有频繁交易需求的客户的交易商获得的客户订单量更大,与其他交易商的交易也更多,从而形成了交易商间网络的核心。相反,专门从事不经常交易需求的客户的交易商形成了外围。我还表明,考虑跨交易商的客户异质性(a)挑战了买卖价差的标准测量和解释,(b)产生了与经验文献一致的买卖价差和交易商中心性的预测。
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引用次数: 0
Global sales, international currencies, and the currency denomination of debt 全球销售,国际货币,以及债务的货币面额
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104184
Riccardo Colacito , Yan Qian , Andreas Stathopoulos
We document that the currency denomination of the debt of large firms in developed countries is strongly associated with the geographical distribution of their sales. Furthermore, those firms exhibit significant home currency bias and international currency bias in borrowing: controlling for the geography of sales, they borrow more in their home currency and the two most traded currencies, the US dollar and the euro. We also show that the firms’ debt currency denomination choices are associated with export invoicing currency patterns in a way consistent with a currency hedging mechanism. In particular, firms domiciled in countries that invoice a larger share of their exports in either their home currency or in a vehicle currency exhibit a weaker connection between the currency denomination of their debt and the geography of their sales. Moreover, firms in countries that invoice more of their exports in an international currency are characterized by stronger international currency bias in debt issuance.
我们证明,发达国家大公司债务的货币面额与其销售的地理分布密切相关。此外,这些公司在借款方面表现出明显的本国货币偏见和国际货币偏见:在控制销售地理位置的情况下,他们以本国货币和两种交易最多的货币美元和欧元借入更多资金。我们还表明,企业的债务货币面额选择与出口发票货币模式相关联,其方式与货币对冲机制一致。特别是,总部设在以本国货币或流通货币开具出口发票的比例较大的国家的公司,其债务的货币面额与其销售的地理位置之间的联系较弱。此外,以国际货币开具出口发票较多的国家的公司在债务发行方面具有更强的国际货币偏好。
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引用次数: 0
Robots and firm investment 机器人与企业投资
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104183
Efraim Benmelech , Michał Zator
Using cross-country and German administrative data on robotization, we show that the impact of robots on firms and labor markets is limited. First, investment in robots is small and highly concentrated in a few industries, representing less than 0.3% of aggregate expenditures on equipment. Second, robotization does not grow as rapidly as Information Technology did in the past, and current growth is driven by gains in developing countries. Third, firms invest in robots when they face difficulties in finding workers and subsequently increase employment after the investment. The total employment effect in exposed industries and regions is negative but modest in magnitude. We discuss why the effects of robots are limited and demonstrate that other digital technologies have more potential for large economic impact.
利用跨国和德国的自动化管理数据,我们发现机器人对企业和劳动力市场的影响是有限的。首先,对机器人的投资很小,而且高度集中在少数几个行业,占设备总支出的比例不到0.3%。其次,机器人化的发展速度不如过去的信息技术那样快,目前的增长是由发展中国家的收益推动的。第三,企业在找不到工人时投资机器人,随后在投资后增加就业。受影响行业和地区的总就业效应为负,但幅度不大。我们讨论了为什么机器人的影响是有限的,并证明了其他数字技术更有可能产生巨大的经济影响。
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引用次数: 0
Green tilts 绿色的倾斜
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104173
Lubos Pastor , Robert F. Stambaugh , Lucian A. Taylor
We estimate financial institutions’ portfolio tilts related to U.S. stocks’ environmental, social, and governance (ESG) characteristics. From 2012 to 2023, ESG-related tilts consistently total about 6% of the investment industry’s assets and rise from 17% to 27% of institutions’ total portfolio tilts. Significant ESG tilts arise from the choice of stocks held and, especially, the weights on stocks held. The largest institutions tilt increasingly toward green stocks, while other institutions and households tilt increasingly brown. Divestment from brown stocks is typically partial rather than full, even for individual mutual funds. UNPRI signatories and European institutions tilt greener; banks tilt browner.
我们估计金融机构的投资组合倾斜与美国股票的环境、社会和治理(ESG)特征有关。从2012年到2023年,esg相关资产一直占投资行业总资产的6%左右,占机构投资组合总资产的比例从17%上升到27%。显著的ESG倾斜源于所持股票的选择,尤其是所持股票的权重。最大的机构越来越倾向于绿色股票,而其他机构和家庭则越来越倾向于棕色股票。从棕色股票中撤资通常是部分而非全部,即使是个别共同基金也是如此。联合国气候变化制度的签署国和欧洲机构倾向于更环保;银行倾斜棕色。
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引用次数: 0
Regulatory leakage among financial advisors: Evidence from FINRA regulation of “bad” brokers 金融顾问的监管泄漏:来自美国金融业监管局对“坏”经纪人的监管证据
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104170
Colleen Honigsberg , Edwin Hu , Robert J. Jackson Jr.
The regulatory framework for financial advisors is fragmented, with multiple state and federal regulators. Prior empirical literature on financial advisors has largely focused on a single subset of financial advisors, but we create a database containing brokers regulated primarily by FINRA, investment advisers regulated by the SEC or state securities regulators, and insurance producers regulated by state insurance regulators. There is significant overlap across the regimes; more than 40% of the advisors in our data are registered with more than one regulator. This overlap has implications for labor allocation and market discipline. For example, of the individuals who exit FINRA’s broker regime, 79% were jointly registered in insurance upon exiting FINRA’s regime. This could be efficient if it reflects bad actors who transition to lower risk work, but our evidence shows that these advisors continue to engage in financial planning after they move to the insurance side, as over 90% maintain licenses to sell annuities. Moreover, those who committed misconduct when regulated by FINRA continue to have heightened levels of misconduct in insurance. Our findings have additional implications for regulatory discipline. In 2018 and 2019, FINRA proposed rules designed to nudge “bad” brokers out of the industry. We show that these proposals caused thousands of high-risk brokers to exit the FINRA broker regime, but that the majority of these individuals did not leave financial services—98% are currently registered with state regulators as insurance producers.
金融顾问的监管框架是分散的,有多个州和联邦监管机构。先前关于财务顾问的实证文献主要集中在财务顾问的单个子集上,但我们创建了一个数据库,其中包含主要由FINRA监管的经纪人,由SEC或州证券监管机构监管的投资顾问,以及由州保险监管机构监管的保险生产商。这些政权之间存在着显著的重叠;在我们的数据中,超过40%的投资顾问在多个监管机构注册。这种重叠对劳动力分配和市场纪律有影响。例如,在退出美国金融业监管局经纪人制度的个人中,79%的人在退出美国金融业监管局制度时共同注册了保险。如果它反映了不良行为者转向风险较低的工作,这可能是有效的,但我们的证据表明,这些顾问在转移到保险领域后继续从事财务规划,因为超过90%的人持有销售年金的许可证。此外,那些在FINRA监管下犯下不当行为的人,在保险业的不当行为水平继续提高。我们的研究结果对监管纪律有额外的影响。2018年和2019年,美国金融业监管局提出了旨在将“坏”经纪人赶出该行业的规则。我们表明,这些提议导致成千上万的高风险经纪人退出了美国金融业监管局的经纪人制度,但其中大多数人并没有离开金融服务——98%的人目前在州监管机构注册为保险生产商。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Financial Economics
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