Pub Date : 2025-05-26DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104086
James Brugler, Carole Comerton-Forde
Dark pools can restrict access for specific trader types. We compare execution outcomes between dark pools that restrict high frequency trader access and those that do not. We find that trades executed in dark pools with more access restrictions have less order flow information leakage, adverse selection risk and post-trade order imbalances than trades in less restricted pools. Evidence from exogenous dark pool closures demonstrates that these differences are causal. The ability to segment order flow can benefit investors because it allows them to make trade-offs between execution risk and information leakage across different dark venues.
{"title":"Differential access to dark markets and execution outcomes","authors":"James Brugler, Carole Comerton-Forde","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104086","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104086","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dark pools can restrict access for specific trader types. We compare execution outcomes between dark pools that restrict high frequency trader access and those that do not. We find that trades executed in dark pools with more access restrictions have less order flow information leakage, adverse selection risk and post-trade order imbalances than trades in less restricted pools. Evidence from exogenous dark pool closures demonstrates that these differences are causal. The ability to segment order flow can benefit investors because it allows them to make trade-offs between execution risk and information leakage across different dark venues.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 104086"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144134103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-26DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104072
William Diamond , Tim Landvoigt , Germán Sánchez Sánchez
We analyze interactions between fiscal and monetary stimulus in a new Keynesian model with nominal mortgage debt that can be inflated away. Redistributive transfers are most impactful when followed by a temporary deviation from inflation-targeting monetary policy. Unlike other fiscal policies, redistribution causes inflation even in the absence of long-run debt sustainability problems, and inflating away mortgages results in additional redistribution. In a quantitative model with mortgage refinancing frictions, transfer payments provide much more stimulus than the redistributive effects of inflation. Borrowers gradually refinance after their mortgages are inflated away, dampening their immediate consumption response and reducing their long-run labor supply.
{"title":"Printing away the mortgages: Fiscal inflation and the post-covid boom","authors":"William Diamond , Tim Landvoigt , Germán Sánchez Sánchez","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104072","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104072","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze interactions between fiscal and monetary stimulus in a new Keynesian model with nominal mortgage debt that can be inflated away. Redistributive transfers are most impactful when followed by a temporary deviation from inflation-targeting monetary policy. Unlike other fiscal policies, redistribution causes inflation even in the absence of long-run debt sustainability problems, and inflating away mortgages results in additional redistribution. In a quantitative model with mortgage refinancing frictions, transfer payments provide much more stimulus than the redistributive effects of inflation. Borrowers gradually refinance after their mortgages are inflated away, dampening their immediate consumption response and reducing their long-run labor supply.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 104072"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144134105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-26DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104095
Aditya Chaudhry
I show that prices impact analyst cash flow expectations and argue this impact can partially reconcile subjective beliefs data with asset pricing models in which investors have rational expectations and discount rate variation drives prices. Previous work argues that correlations of biased analyst cash flow expectations with prices and future returns contradict rational models and imply biased investor expectations distort prices. However, using two instrumental variables for price, I find increases in price unrelated to cash flow news raise analyst cash flow expectations. Based on this empirical finding, I propose a model with rational investors that matches key moments in beliefs data: analysts form biased cash flow expectations by learning from prices that contain discount rate variation. Thus, while stylized facts in beliefs data can be consistent with investors having biased expectations that distort prices, these facts can also be consistent with investors having rational expectations and analysts learning from prices.
{"title":"The impact of prices on analyst cash flow expectations: Reconciling subjective beliefs data with rational discount rate variation","authors":"Aditya Chaudhry","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104095","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104095","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I show that prices impact analyst cash flow expectations and argue this impact can partially reconcile subjective beliefs data with asset pricing models in which investors have rational expectations and discount rate variation drives prices. Previous work argues that correlations of biased <em>analyst</em> cash flow expectations with prices and future returns contradict rational models and imply biased <em>investor</em> expectations distort prices. However, using two instrumental variables for price, I find increases in price unrelated to cash flow news raise analyst cash flow expectations. Based on this empirical finding, I propose a model with rational investors that matches key moments in beliefs data: analysts form biased cash flow expectations by learning from prices that contain discount rate variation. Thus, while stylized facts in beliefs data can be consistent with investors having biased expectations that distort prices, these facts can also be consistent with investors having rational expectations and analysts learning from prices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 104095"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144134101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-26DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104107
Janet Gao , Yongseok Kim , Merih Sevilir
We examine the survival prospects, employment profiles, and patient outcomes at private equity (PE)-acquired hospitals. Target hospitals maintain their survival rates while significantly reducing employment and wage expenditures. The number of core medical workers drops temporarily, but returns to its pre-acquisition level in the long run. However, administrative job and wage cuts persist over the long term, particularly at previously nonprofit hospitals. Using proprietary insurance claims data, we find no significant changes in patient demographics or inpatient prices at PE-acquired hospitals. While patient satisfaction declines, there is no evidence of increased patient mortality or readmission rates at PE-acquired hospitals.
{"title":"Private equity in the hospital industry","authors":"Janet Gao , Yongseok Kim , Merih Sevilir","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104107","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104107","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the survival prospects, employment profiles, and patient outcomes at private equity (PE)-acquired hospitals. Target hospitals maintain their survival rates while significantly reducing employment and wage expenditures. The number of core medical workers drops temporarily, but returns to its pre-acquisition level in the long run. However, administrative job and wage cuts persist over the long term, particularly at previously nonprofit hospitals. Using proprietary insurance claims data, we find no significant changes in patient demographics or inpatient prices at PE-acquired hospitals. While patient satisfaction declines, there is no evidence of increased patient mortality or readmission rates at PE-acquired hospitals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 104107"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144134102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-24DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104104
Thomas Schneider , Philip E. Strahan , Jun Yang
This paper studies banks’ investment in risk management human capital following the Global Financial Crisis and the advent of stress testing. Our results suggest that ‘Too Big to Fail’ distortions may have weakened large banks’ incentive to invest in risk management talent. Stress testing, which focuses on the largest banks, spurred demand for skilled quantitative risk managers, but only narrowly in anticipation of a test and following poor performance on a test. Stress testing does not affect demand for the over 90 % of risk management jobs not linked to passing tests, limiting its effectiveness in improving risk management practices.
{"title":"Bank stress testing, human capital investment and risk management","authors":"Thomas Schneider , Philip E. Strahan , Jun Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104104","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104104","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies banks’ investment in risk management human capital following the Global Financial Crisis and the advent of stress testing. Our results suggest that ‘Too Big to Fail’ distortions may have weakened large banks’ incentive to invest in risk management talent. Stress testing, which focuses on the largest banks, spurred demand for skilled quantitative risk managers, but only narrowly in anticipation of a test and following poor performance on a test. Stress testing does not affect demand for the over 90 % of risk management jobs not linked to passing tests, limiting its effectiveness in improving risk management practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 104104"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144123436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-17DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104085
Feng Jiao , Sergei Sarkissian , David Schumacher
Using global mutual fund and American Depositary Receipt (ADR) data, we test if funds strategically trade cross-listed firms’ equity shares in the most liquid trading location. We find that especially funds that score high on traditional skill measures exhibit a liquidity-based trading venue preference. We identify an informed trading motive as the most likely driver for such behaviour rather than preference based on geographic, economic, cultural, or governance motives. Thus, liquidity picking is associated with fund outperformance and stock selection ability that is not limited to only cross-listed firms. Our tests directly support theories of informed trading in a multi-market setting.
{"title":"Liquidity picking and fund performance","authors":"Feng Jiao , Sergei Sarkissian , David Schumacher","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104085","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104085","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using global mutual fund and American Depositary Receipt (ADR) data, we test if funds strategically trade cross-listed firms’ equity shares in the most liquid trading location. We find that especially funds that score high on traditional skill measures exhibit a liquidity-based trading venue preference. We identify an informed trading motive as the most likely driver for such behaviour rather than preference based on geographic, economic, cultural, or governance motives. Thus, liquidity picking is associated with fund outperformance and stock selection ability that is not limited to only cross-listed firms. Our tests directly support theories of informed trading in a multi-market setting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"170 ","pages":"Article 104085"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144071673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-17DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104081
Kjell G. Nyborg , Jiri Woschitz
For variables with a term structure, the standard difference-in-differences (DiD) model is predisposed toward misspecification, even under random assignment, because of heterogeneity over the maturity spectrum and imperfect matching between treated and control units. Estimated treatment effects that are false, biased, or hard to interpret become a concern. Neither unit fixed effects nor standard term-structure controls resolve the problem. Solutions that overcome imperfect matching involve estimating the term structure of hypothesized treatment, which is also what is economically interesting (regardless of matching efficiency). These issues are not unique to DiD analysis, but are generic to group-assignment settings.
{"title":"Robust difference-in-differences analysis when there is a term structure","authors":"Kjell G. Nyborg , Jiri Woschitz","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104081","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104081","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For variables with a term structure, the standard difference-in-differences (DiD) model is predisposed toward misspecification, even under random assignment, because of heterogeneity over the maturity spectrum and imperfect matching between treated and control units. Estimated treatment effects that are false, biased, or hard to interpret become a concern. Neither unit fixed effects nor standard term-structure controls resolve the problem. Solutions that overcome imperfect matching involve estimating the term structure of hypothesized treatment, which is also what is economically interesting (regardless of matching efficiency). These issues are not unique to DiD analysis, but are generic to group-assignment settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"170 ","pages":"Article 104081"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144072363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-15DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104084
Viral V. Acharya , Ryan Banerjee , Matteo Crosignani , Tim Eisert , Renée Spigt
We document capital misallocation in the U.S. investment-grade (IG) corporate bond market, driven by quantitative easing (QE). Prospective fallen angels — risky firms just above the IG cutoff — enjoyed subsidized bond financing in 2009–19. This effect is driven by Fed purchases of securities inducing long-duration IG-focused investors to rebalance their portfolios towards higher-yielding IG bonds. The benefiting firms (i) exploited the sluggish downward adjustment of credit ratings after M&A to finance risky acquisitions with bond issuances, and (ii) increased market share affecting competitors’ employment and investment, but (iii) suffered severe downgrades at the onset of the pandemic.
{"title":"Exorbitant privilege? Quantitative easing and the bond market subsidy of prospective fallen angels","authors":"Viral V. Acharya , Ryan Banerjee , Matteo Crosignani , Tim Eisert , Renée Spigt","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104084","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104084","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We document capital misallocation in the U.S. investment-grade (IG) corporate bond market, driven by quantitative easing (QE). Prospective fallen angels — risky firms just above the IG cutoff — enjoyed subsidized bond financing in 2009–19. This effect is driven by Fed purchases of securities inducing long-duration IG-focused investors to rebalance their portfolios towards higher-yielding IG bonds. The benefiting firms (i) exploited the sluggish downward adjustment of credit ratings after M&A to finance risky acquisitions with bond issuances, and (ii) increased market share affecting competitors’ employment and investment, but (iii) suffered severe downgrades at the onset of the pandemic.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"170 ","pages":"Article 104084"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143947148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-13DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104077
Melanie Wallskog
How do workplace social connections shape everyday entrepreneurship? Using comprehensive data on millions of American workers across the economy, I find three key patterns. First, entrepreneurial coworkers inspire and teach entrepreneurship: individuals are more likely to become entrepreneurs after working with coworkers who previously led young businesses. Second, these effects predominantly occur within demographic groups, perpetuating lower entrepreneurship rates for women and Black Americans. Third, these workplace spillovers can increase productivity: individuals exposed to relatively successful coworkers subsequently run successful companies too.
{"title":"Entrepreneurial spillovers across coworkers","authors":"Melanie Wallskog","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104077","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104077","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How do workplace social connections shape everyday entrepreneurship? Using comprehensive data on millions of American workers across the economy, I find three key patterns. First, entrepreneurial coworkers inspire and teach entrepreneurship: individuals are more likely to become entrepreneurs after working with coworkers who previously led young businesses. Second, these effects predominantly occur within demographic groups, perpetuating lower entrepreneurship rates for women and Black Americans. Third, these workplace spillovers can increase productivity: individuals exposed to relatively successful coworkers subsequently run successful companies too.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"170 ","pages":"Article 104077"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143941993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-12DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104080
Antonio Falato, Diana Iercosan, Filip Zikes
Banks use trading as a vehicle to take risk. Using high-frequency regulatory data, we estimate the sensitivity of weekly bank trading profits to aggregate equity, fixed-income, credit, currency, and commodity risk factors. Our estimates imply that U.S. banks had large trading exposures to equity market risk before the Volcker Rule, which they curtailed afterwards. Credit and currency risk exposures were smaller. The results hold up in a quasi-natural experiment that exploits the phased-in introduction of reporting requirements for identification. Total trading-book risk was also curtailed afterwards with material financial stability implications and no evidence of migration to other bank activities.
{"title":"Banks as regulated traders","authors":"Antonio Falato, Diana Iercosan, Filip Zikes","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Banks use trading as a vehicle to take risk. Using high-frequency regulatory data, we estimate the sensitivity of weekly bank trading profits to aggregate equity, fixed-income, credit, currency, and commodity risk factors. Our estimates imply that U.S. banks had large trading exposures to equity market risk before the Volcker Rule, which they curtailed afterwards. Credit and currency risk exposures were smaller. The results hold up in a quasi-natural experiment that exploits the phased-in introduction of reporting requirements for identification. Total trading-book risk was also curtailed afterwards with material financial stability implications and no evidence of migration to other bank activities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"170 ","pages":"Article 104080"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143935089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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