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Dealer balance sheets and bidding behavior in the Bank of England’s QE reverse auctions 英国央行量化宽松反向拍卖中的交易商资产负债表和竞价行为
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104182
Lena Boneva , Jakub Kastl , Filip Zikes
We study dealers’ bidding behavior in the Bank of England’s quantitative easing (QE) reverse auctions. Using a granular dataset on both accepted and rejected offers together with an equilibrium model of bidding behavior, we estimate dealers’ valuations of securities offered to the Bank of England. We also recover the rents accruing to dealers from participating in the auctions as opposed to liquidating gilts in the secondary market, thereby possibly causing prices to change. These rents or so-called ”liquidity benefits” are largest in the early phases of QE implemented during the Global Financial Crisis, suggesting that QE may be particularly effective in restoring smooth market functioning when market participants are facing large liquidity shocks. Finally, we document that dealers’ valuations vary significantly with the amount of interest rate risk acquired in the secondary gilt market before the auction and with dealers’ regulatory capital.
本文研究了英国央行量化宽松反向拍卖中交易商的竞价行为。我们使用接受和拒绝报价的颗粒数据集以及投标行为的均衡模型,估计了交易商对提供给英格兰银行的证券的估值。我们还从参与拍卖的交易商那里收回租金,而不是在二级市场上清算金边债券,从而可能导致价格变化。这些租金或所谓的“流动性收益”在全球金融危机期间实施的量化宽松的早期阶段是最大的,这表明,当市场参与者面临巨大的流动性冲击时,量化宽松可能在恢复平稳的市场运作方面特别有效。最后,我们发现交易商的估值随拍卖前在二级金边债券市场获得的利率风险金额和交易商的监管资本而显著变化。
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引用次数: 0
Regulatory leakage among financial advisors: Evidence from FINRA regulation of “bad” brokers 金融顾问的监管泄漏:来自美国金融业监管局对“坏”经纪人的监管证据
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104170
Colleen Honigsberg , Edwin Hu , Robert J. Jackson Jr.
The regulatory framework for financial advisors is fragmented, with multiple state and federal regulators. Prior empirical literature on financial advisors has largely focused on a single subset of financial advisors, but we create a database containing brokers regulated primarily by FINRA, investment advisers regulated by the SEC or state securities regulators, and insurance producers regulated by state insurance regulators. There is significant overlap across the regimes; more than 40% of the advisors in our data are registered with more than one regulator. This overlap has implications for labor allocation and market discipline. For example, of the individuals who exit FINRA’s broker regime, 79% were jointly registered in insurance upon exiting FINRA’s regime. This could be efficient if it reflects bad actors who transition to lower risk work, but our evidence shows that these advisors continue to engage in financial planning after they move to the insurance side, as over 90% maintain licenses to sell annuities. Moreover, those who committed misconduct when regulated by FINRA continue to have heightened levels of misconduct in insurance. Our findings have additional implications for regulatory discipline. In 2018 and 2019, FINRA proposed rules designed to nudge “bad” brokers out of the industry. We show that these proposals caused thousands of high-risk brokers to exit the FINRA broker regime, but that the majority of these individuals did not leave financial services—98% are currently registered with state regulators as insurance producers.
金融顾问的监管框架是分散的,有多个州和联邦监管机构。先前关于财务顾问的实证文献主要集中在财务顾问的单个子集上,但我们创建了一个数据库,其中包含主要由FINRA监管的经纪人,由SEC或州证券监管机构监管的投资顾问,以及由州保险监管机构监管的保险生产商。这些政权之间存在着显著的重叠;在我们的数据中,超过40%的投资顾问在多个监管机构注册。这种重叠对劳动力分配和市场纪律有影响。例如,在退出美国金融业监管局经纪人制度的个人中,79%的人在退出美国金融业监管局制度时共同注册了保险。如果它反映了不良行为者转向风险较低的工作,这可能是有效的,但我们的证据表明,这些顾问在转移到保险领域后继续从事财务规划,因为超过90%的人持有销售年金的许可证。此外,那些在FINRA监管下犯下不当行为的人,在保险业的不当行为水平继续提高。我们的研究结果对监管纪律有额外的影响。2018年和2019年,美国金融业监管局提出了旨在将“坏”经纪人赶出该行业的规则。我们表明,这些提议导致成千上万的高风险经纪人退出了美国金融业监管局的经纪人制度,但其中大多数人并没有离开金融服务——98%的人目前在州监管机构注册为保险生产商。
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引用次数: 0
Inflation and Trading 通货膨胀与贸易
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104166
Philip Schnorpfeil , Michael Weber , Andreas Hackethal
We study how investors respond to inflation combining a customized survey experiment with trading data at a time of historically high inflation. Investors’ beliefs about the stock return–inflation relation are very heterogeneous in the cross section and on average too optimistic. Moreover, many investors appear unaware of inflation-hedging strategies despite being otherwise well-informed about prevailing inflation rates and asset returns. Consequently, whereas exogenous shifts in inflation expectations do not impact return expectations, information on past returns during periods of high inflation leads to negative updating about the perceived stock-return impact of inflation, which feeds into return expectations and subsequent actual trading behavior.
我们研究投资者如何应对通货膨胀结合定制调查实验与交易数据在历史高通胀时期。投资者对股票收益-通货膨胀关系的看法在横截面上非常异质,平均过于乐观。此外,许多投资者似乎对通胀对冲策略一无所知,尽管他们在其他方面对当前的通胀率和资产回报率了如指掌。因此,尽管通胀预期的外生变化不会影响回报预期,但在高通胀时期,有关过去回报的信息会导致对通胀对股票回报影响的负面更新,从而影响回报预期和随后的实际交易行为。
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引用次数: 0
Entrepreneurship and the gig economy: Evidence from U.S. tax returns 创业和零工经济:来自美国纳税申报表的证据
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104156
Matthew Denes , Spyridon Lagaras , Margarita Tsoutsoura
Platform intermediation of goods and services has considerably transformed the U.S. economy. We use administrative data on U.S. tax returns to study the role of the gig economy on entrepreneurship. We find that gig workers are more likely to become entrepreneurs, particularly those who are lower income, younger, and benefit from flexibility. We track all newly created firms and show that gig workers start firms in similar industries as their gig experience, which are less likely to survive and demonstrate higher performance. Overall, our findings suggest on-the-job learning promotes entrepreneurial entry and shifts the types of firms started by entrepreneurs.
商品和服务的平台中介在很大程度上改变了美国经济。我们使用美国纳税申报单的行政数据来研究零工经济对创业的作用。我们发现,零工更有可能成为企业家,尤其是那些收入较低、较年轻、受益于灵活性的人。我们跟踪了所有新成立的公司,发现零工工人创办的公司与他们的零工经历相似,这些公司生存的可能性较小,表现出更高的绩效。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,在职学习促进了企业家进入并改变了企业家创办的公司的类型。
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引用次数: 0
Financial constraints and the racial housing gap 财政拮据和种族住房差距
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104142
Arpit Gupta , Christopher Hansman , Pierre Mabille
We show that financial constraints lead to spatial misallocation and contribute to racial disparities in housing and wealth accumulation. Using bunching and difference-in-differences designs, we document that down payment constraints disproportionately limit the ability of Black households to access housing in high-opportunity areas. We build a dynamic life-cycle model to examine the long-term wealth effects of these leverage distortions on group differences in wealth accumulation. Black households are more affected by financial and spatial frictions, limiting wealth building opportunities. Improving mortgage access and housing supply in high-opportunity areas helps reduce racial wealth disparities, emphasizing the need for access to geographic opportunities rather than homeownership alone.
研究表明,金融约束导致空间分配不当,并导致住房和财富积累方面的种族差异。使用聚类和差异中的差异设计,我们证明了首付限制不成比例地限制了黑人家庭在高机会地区获得住房的能力。我们建立了一个动态的生命周期模型来检验这些杠杆扭曲对财富积累群体差异的长期财富效应。黑人家庭更容易受到金融和空间摩擦的影响,从而限制了积累财富的机会。改善高机会地区的抵押贷款和住房供应有助于减少种族财富差距,强调获得地理机会的必要性,而不仅仅是房屋所有权。
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引用次数: 0
Have CEOs changed? ceo们变了吗?
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104169
Yann Decressin , Steven N. Kaplan , Morten Sorensen
Using more than 4900 personality assessments, we study changes in the characteristics of CEOs and top executives since 2001. The same four factors explain roughly half of the variation in executive characteristics in this larger sample of assessments as in Kaplan and Sorensen (2021). In later years, CEO candidates have shown declining general ability, are increasingly execution-oriented, less interpersonal, less charismatic, and less creative-strategic, and many of these differences persist for hired CEOs. We find no evidence of increasing prevalence or importance of interpersonal and softer skills. Executives assessed for the same company have positively correlated abilities, suggesting that high-ability executives complement each other. Finally, we consider corporate objectives and CEO characteristics.
利用超过4900份人格评估,我们研究了自2001年以来ceo和高管特征的变化。在Kaplan和Sorensen(2021)的更大样本评估中,同样的四个因素解释了大约一半的高管特征差异。在后来的几年里,CEO候选人的综合能力逐渐下降,越来越以执行为导向,缺乏人际交往,缺乏魅力,缺乏创造性战略,而这些差异在被聘用的CEO身上仍然存在。我们没有发现人际关系和软技能越来越流行或越来越重要的证据。在同一家公司接受评估的高管的能力呈正相关,这表明高能力高管之间是互补的。最后,我们考虑了企业目标和CEO特征。
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引用次数: 0
Pricing and constructing international government bond portfolios 国际政府债券投资组合的定价与构建
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104152
Otto Randl, Giorgia Simion, Josef Zechner
This paper derives a stochastic discount factor for currency-hedged government bonds of developed markets by projecting returns onto the unconditional mean–variance efficient (UMVE) portfolio. Priced risks of international bonds differ fundamentally from those of currencies. The UMVE portfolio achieves a Sharpe ratio over twice the average of individual markets, with the market price of risk peaking during crises and periods with high inflation dispersion. While bond returns exhibit a strong factor structure, common sources of variation are only weakly connected to priced risks. Hedging unpriced risks in naive or factor-based strategies significantly improves Sharpe ratios, even under portfolio weight constraints.
本文通过将收益投射到无条件均值方差有效(UMVE)投资组合上,导出了发达市场货币对冲政府债券的随机折现因子。国际债券的定价风险与货币的定价风险根本不同。UMVE投资组合的夏普比率达到单个市场平均水平的两倍以上,市场风险价格在危机和高通胀分散时期达到峰值。虽然债券回报表现出很强的因素结构,但常见的变化来源与定价风险的关系很弱。用幼稚策略或基于因素的策略对冲未定价风险,即使在投资组合权重受限的情况下,也能显著提高夏普比率。
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引用次数: 0
ESG lending 环境、社会和治理贷款
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104150
Sehoon Kim , Nitish Kumar , Jongsub Lee , Junho Oh
Firms increasingly borrow via sustainability-linked loans (SLLs), contractually tying spreads to their ESG performance. SLLs vary widely in transparency of disclosure regarding sustainability-related contract details and tend to be issued to borrowers with superior ESG profiles. While high-transparency SLL borrowers maintain this performance, low-transparency SLL borrowers exhibit significantly deteriorating ESG performance after issuance. Both high- and low-transparency borrowers pay substantial fees to obtain SLLs. The results are consistent with high-transparency borrowers using SLLs to “certify” their preexisting ESG commitments, but low-transparency borrowers “greenwashing” with empty SLL labels. Evidence on drawdowns, renegotiations, and stock market reactions further supports these interpretations.
企业越来越多地通过与可持续发展相关的贷款(sll)进行借贷,合同将利差与ESG绩效挂钩。sll在披露与可持续性相关的合同细节的透明度方面差异很大,并且倾向于向具有优越ESG概况的借款人发放。虽然高透明度的中小抵押贷款借款人保持了这一绩效,但低透明度的中小抵押贷款借款人在发行后的ESG绩效显著恶化。无论是高透明度还是低透明度的借款人,都要为获得sll支付大量费用。结果与高透明度的借款人使用SLL来“证明”其先前存在的ESG承诺一致,但低透明度的借款人使用空的SLL标签进行“绿色清洗”。有关撤资、重新谈判和股市反应的证据进一步支持了这些解释。
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引用次数: 0
Investor learning about monetary-policy transmission and the stock market 投资者学习货币政策传导和股票市场
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104154
Daniel Andrei , Michael Hasler
We model how investor learning about monetary-policy transmission impacts asset prices. In an asset-pricing model, investors learn from realized inflation surprises how effectively monetary policy steers future inflation. Downward revisions in perceived effectiveness raise expected inflation persistence, increasing return volatility and risk premia. These effects intensify when policy deviates significantly from neutral or monetary-transmission uncertainty is high. We estimate the model using U.S. macro and policy data from 1954 to 2023. The resulting dynamics align with observed patterns in equity returns and volatility. Empirical tests support the model’s core prediction: investor learning turns central-bank credibility into a priced risk factor.
我们建立了投资者对货币政策传导的了解如何影响资产价格的模型。在资产定价模型中,投资者从已实现的通胀意外中了解到,货币政策如何有效地引导未来的通胀。对感知有效性的向下修正提高了预期的通胀持久性,增加了回报波动性和风险溢价。当政策明显偏离中性或货币传导的不确定性很高时,这些影响就会加剧。我们使用美国从1954年到2023年的宏观和政策数据来估计模型。由此产生的动态与观察到的股票回报和波动性模式一致。实证检验支持了该模型的核心预测:投资者的学习将央行的可信度变成了一个定价的风险因素。
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引用次数: 0
Resilience in collective bargaining 集体谈判的弹性
IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104157
Carlos F. Avenancio-León , Alessio Piccolo , Roberto Pinto
A central finding of the theoretical literature on bargaining is that parties’ attitudes towards delay influence bargaining outcomes. However, the ability to endure delays, resilience, is often private information and hard to measure in most real-world contexts. In the context of collective bargaining, we show firms actively attempt to become financially resilient in anticipation of labor negotiations. Firms adjust their financial resilience to respond to the passage of right-to-work laws (RWLs). Unions’ financial structure also responds to RWLs. Our findings suggest resilience is key to understanding the process through which collective bargaining determines wages.
议价理论文献的一个中心发现是,当事人对延迟的态度影响议价结果。然而,忍受延迟的能力,弹性,通常是私人信息,在大多数现实环境中很难衡量。在集体谈判的背景下,我们显示公司积极尝试在预期的劳资谈判中变得财务弹性。企业调整其财务弹性以应对工作权利法(RWLs)的通过。工会的财务结构也会对RWLs做出反应。我们的发现表明,弹性是理解集体谈判决定工资的过程的关键。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Financial Economics
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