Previous studies showed that worries about the economic situation and job security are associated with childbearing, but evidence is scarce on whether worries about other personal and social issues are also related to childbearing. Drawing on the German Socio‐Economic Panel Study, this study examined the relationship between worries about various personal and social issues and the likelihood of having children. Based on exploratory factor analysis, worries were categorized into social/environment and economy/safety factors. Cox regression models showed that social/environment worries were associated with a decreased likelihood of having children, even after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, personality traits, and political attitudes. Among specific worries, concerns about environmental protection, climate change, personal health, peace, immigration to Germany, and hostility toward immigrants were linked to a decreased likelihood of having children. Notably, worries about the economy in general were strongly associated with a reduced probability of becoming a parent among childless individuals, with a 25 percent lower likelihood for those highly worried about it. Similarly, childless individuals highly worried about climate change exhibit a 16 percent lower likelihood of parenthood. Our findings highlight the role of other worries in childbearing in addition to economic uncertainty and suggest that fertility decreases when the future is perceived as uncertain.
{"title":"Personal and Social Worries Associated with the Likelihood of Having Children","authors":"Kateryna Golovina, Markus Jokela","doi":"10.1111/padr.12646","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12646","url":null,"abstract":"Previous studies showed that worries about the economic situation and job security are associated with childbearing, but evidence is scarce on whether worries about other personal and social issues are also related to childbearing. Drawing on the German Socio‐Economic Panel Study, this study examined the relationship between worries about various personal and social issues and the likelihood of having children. Based on exploratory factor analysis, worries were categorized into social/environment and economy/safety factors. Cox regression models showed that social/environment worries were associated with a decreased likelihood of having children, even after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, personality traits, and political attitudes. Among specific worries, concerns about environmental protection, climate change, personal health, peace, immigration to Germany, and hostility toward immigrants were linked to a decreased likelihood of having children. Notably, worries about the economy in general were strongly associated with a reduced probability of becoming a parent among childless individuals, with a 25 percent lower likelihood for those highly worried about it. Similarly, childless individuals highly worried about climate change exhibit a 16 percent lower likelihood of parenthood. Our findings highlight the role of other worries in childbearing in addition to economic uncertainty and suggest that fertility decreases when the future is perceived as uncertain.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141489510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Melissa S.KearneyThe Two Parent Privilege: How Americans Stopped Getting Married and Started Falling BehindUniversity of Chicago Press, 2023, 240 p., $25.00.","authors":"SARAH R. HAYFORD","doi":"10.1111/padr.12631","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12631","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141185374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Claire L.WendlandPartial Stories: Maternal Death from Six AnglesUniversity of Chicago Press, 2022, 356 p., $35.00.","authors":"SANYU A. MOJOLA","doi":"10.1111/padr.12633","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12633","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141185278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Henry Pratt Fairchild on the Restriction of Immigration","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/padr.12635","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12635","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141085554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Behind the steady march of progress toward longer life expectancy in many low‐mortality countries, there have been setbacks even before the Covid‐19 pandemic. In this paper, we use an exploratory approach to describe the temporal structure, age patterns, and geographic aspects of life expectancy reversals. We find that drops in life expectancy are often followed by larger than average improvements, which tells us that most reversals are transitory with little long‐term influence. The age structure of mortality decline when life expectancy falls is tilted toward older ages, a pattern that is quite different from the general pattern of mortality improvement. Geographic analysis shows that mortality reversals are correlated across neighboring countries like Italy and France, or Canada and the United States. These findings are consistent with contagious disease and weather being important causes of life expectancy reversals. We conclude with a discussion of implications for formal modeling and forecasting of mortality to accommodate these patterns that violate some standard assumptions.
{"title":"Life Expectancy Reversals in Low‐Mortality Populations","authors":"Joshua R. Goldstein, Ronald D. Lee","doi":"10.1111/padr.12619","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12619","url":null,"abstract":"Behind the steady march of progress toward longer life expectancy in many low‐mortality countries, there have been setbacks even before the Covid‐19 pandemic. In this paper, we use an exploratory approach to describe the temporal structure, age patterns, and geographic aspects of life expectancy reversals. We find that drops in life expectancy are often followed by larger than average improvements, which tells us that most reversals are transitory with little long‐term influence. The age structure of mortality decline when life expectancy falls is tilted toward older ages, a pattern that is quite different from the general pattern of mortality improvement. Geographic analysis shows that mortality reversals are correlated across neighboring countries like Italy and France, or Canada and the United States. These findings are consistent with contagious disease and weather being important causes of life expectancy reversals. We conclude with a discussion of implications for formal modeling and forecasting of mortality to accommodate these patterns that violate some standard assumptions.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140635984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Deadly violence has drastically increased in Latin America, posing a serious threat to women's sexual and reproductive health. Previous research has documented both increases and declines in youth‐to‐adulthood transitions associated with exposure to violence globally. However, there has been a lack of comparative studies focusing on multiple life‐course transitions. This study investigated the impact of community violence on women's life‐course transitions in Colombia, the Dominican Republic, and Guatemala. Drawing on nationally representative surveys and homicide statistics, fixed effects models are employed to estimate the correlation between women's exposure to community violence and the intensity, timing, and sequencing of their critical life events: first cohabitation and childbirth. The results revealed that exposure to violence was associated with an increase in the quantum and tempo of transitions to first cohabitation and birth in Colombia. Competing risk models showed that community violence correlated with the sequencing of cohabitation and birth in the Dominican Republic, as identified by an increase in precohabiting fertility. There was suggestive but inconclusive evidence of an association between community violence and transitions to first birth in Guatemala. In conclusion, community violence indeed predicts women's youth‐to‐adulthood transitions in Colombia, the Dominican Republic, and potentially Guatemala, with repercussions for the subsequent life experiences of individuals and entire cohorts.
{"title":"Milestone Moments: Community Violence and Women's Life‐Course Transitions in Colombia, the Dominican Republic, and Guatemala","authors":"Signe Svallfors","doi":"10.1111/padr.12628","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12628","url":null,"abstract":"Deadly violence has drastically increased in Latin America, posing a serious threat to women's sexual and reproductive health. Previous research has documented both increases and declines in youth‐to‐adulthood transitions associated with exposure to violence globally. However, there has been a lack of comparative studies focusing on multiple life‐course transitions. This study investigated the impact of community violence on women's life‐course transitions in Colombia, the Dominican Republic, and Guatemala. Drawing on nationally representative surveys and homicide statistics, fixed effects models are employed to estimate the correlation between women's exposure to community violence and the intensity, timing, and sequencing of their critical life events: first cohabitation and childbirth. The results revealed that exposure to violence was associated with an increase in the quantum and tempo of transitions to first cohabitation and birth in Colombia. Competing risk models showed that community violence correlated with the sequencing of cohabitation and birth in the Dominican Republic, as identified by an increase in precohabiting fertility. There was suggestive but inconclusive evidence of an association between community violence and transitions to first birth in Guatemala. In conclusion, community violence indeed predicts women's youth‐to‐adulthood transitions in Colombia, the Dominican Republic, and potentially Guatemala, with repercussions for the subsequent life experiences of individuals and entire cohorts.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140636074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anne Solaz, Lidia Panico, Alexandra Sheridan, Thorsten Schneider, Jascha Dräger, Jane Waldfogel, Sarah Jiyoon Kwon, Elizabeth Washbrook, Valentina Perinetti Casoni
This paper explores the role of family trajectories during childhood in explaining inequalities by maternal education in children's math and reading skills using harmonized, longitudinal, and nationally representative surveys, which follow children over the course of primary and lower secondary school in four high‐income countries (England, France, Germany, and the United States). As single parenthood and family transitions are more likely among less educated parents and are associated with fewer resources for children, we explore whether growing up outside a stable two‐parent family mediates educational inequalities in math and reading scores.Results show a strong educational gradient in family trajectories in the four countries, but this varies by child age and by country. Children who experience a family transition record lower test scores, although the magnitude differs by the type of postseparation arrangements.Overall, family trajectories are strongly associated with children's math and reading scores but, because of the importance of selectivity in family trajectories, they play only a modest role in explaining the skills gaps by maternal education, considerably less than determinants such as income. The penalties associated with not living within a stable two‐parent family are always larger in the United States and England than in France and Germany.
{"title":"Does Family Structure Account for Child Achievement Gaps by Parental Education? Findings for England, France, Germany and the United States","authors":"Anne Solaz, Lidia Panico, Alexandra Sheridan, Thorsten Schneider, Jascha Dräger, Jane Waldfogel, Sarah Jiyoon Kwon, Elizabeth Washbrook, Valentina Perinetti Casoni","doi":"10.1111/padr.12623","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12623","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the role of family trajectories during childhood in explaining inequalities by maternal education in children's math and reading skills using harmonized, longitudinal, and nationally representative surveys, which follow children over the course of primary and lower secondary school in four high‐income countries (England, France, Germany, and the United States). As single parenthood and family transitions are more likely among less educated parents and are associated with fewer resources for children, we explore whether growing up outside a stable two‐parent family mediates educational inequalities in math and reading scores.Results show a strong educational gradient in family trajectories in the four countries, but this varies by child age and by country. Children who experience a family transition record lower test scores, although the magnitude differs by the type of postseparation arrangements.Overall, family trajectories are strongly associated with children's math and reading scores but, because of the importance of selectivity in family trajectories, they play only a modest role in explaining the skills gaps by maternal education, considerably less than determinants such as income. The penalties associated with not living within a stable two‐parent family are always larger in the United States and England than in France and Germany.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140557311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We introduce a new demographic indicator, the remittances‐adjusted support ratio (RASR), which incorporates the support offered through remittances into the existing support ratio (SR). Remittances have increased rapidly in recent decades due to improved technology, and they play a crucial role in the countries that send migrants abroad. This is important as many countries are still undergoing their demographic transitions, and here remittances are particularly relevant. Our formulation of the RASR suggests an alternative in which population pressures are alleviated through migration, but where migrants send remittances and thus provide support without being present in their home countries. We show that the RASR has diverged substantially from the SR in a range of countries during the last three decades. The RASR, therefore, offers new insight into economic and demographic support and constitutes a useful tool for policymakers and researchers in the 21st century.
我们引入了一个新的人口指标--汇款调整后支持率（RASR），它将汇款提供的支持纳入到现有的支持率（SR）中。近几十年来，由于技术进步，汇款迅速增加，汇款在向国外输送移民的国家中发挥着至关重要的作用。这一点非常重要，因为许多国家仍在经历人口结构转型，而汇款在这方面尤为重要。我们对 RASR 的表述提出了一种替代方案，即通过移民来缓解人口压力，但移民通过汇款来提供支持，而无需留在本国。我们的研究表明，在过去三十年中，在一系列国家中，RASR 与 SR 有很大差异。因此，RASR 为经济和人口支持提供了新的视角，是 21 世纪政策制定者和研究人员的有用工具。
{"title":"Remittances‐Adjusted Support Ratio","authors":"Lukas Tohoff, Daji Landis, Letizia Mencarini, Arnstein Aassve","doi":"10.1111/padr.12627","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12627","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce a new demographic indicator, the remittances‐adjusted support ratio (RASR), which incorporates the support offered through remittances into the existing support ratio (SR). Remittances have increased rapidly in recent decades due to improved technology, and they play a crucial role in the countries that send migrants abroad. This is important as many countries are still undergoing their demographic transitions, and here remittances are particularly relevant. Our formulation of the RASR suggests an alternative in which population pressures are alleviated through migration, but where migrants send remittances and thus provide support without being present in their home countries. We show that the RASR has diverged substantially from the SR in a range of countries during the last three decades. The RASR, therefore, offers new insight into economic and demographic support and constitutes a useful tool for policymakers and researchers in the 21st century.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"248 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140551937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The effects of climate change on human migration have received widespread attention, driven in part by concerns about potential large‐scale population displacements. Recent studies demonstrate that climate‐migration linkages are often complex, and climatic variability may increase, decrease, or have null effects on migration. However, the use of noncomparable analytic strategies across studies makes it difficult to disentangle substantive variation in climate effects across populations and places from methodological artifacts. We address this gap by using harmonized census and survey microdata from six Asian countries (n = 54,987,838) to measure climate effects on interprovincial migration, overall and among subpopulations defined by age, sex, education, and country of residence. We also evaluate whether climate effects differ according to the distance and type of move. Exposure to precipitation deficits leads to substantively large reductions in out‐migration, and, surprisingly, these overall effects do not vary meaningfully by age, sex, or educational attainment. However, there are significant differences in the strength and direction of temperature and precipitation effects by country and within countries. Multinomial models show that precipitation deficits reduce internal migration to both adjacent and nonadjacent provinces. Finally, consistent with expectations that climate effects operate through economic mechanisms, spells of low precipitation reduce the probability of work‐related moves in the countries where the reason for migration is measured. Our findings provide further evidence that adverse environmental conditions can reduce migration, underlining the need for policymakers to consider how to support both displaced and trapped populations.
{"title":"Climatic Variability and Internal Migration in Asia: Evidence from Big Microdata","authors":"Brian C. Thiede, Abbie Robinson, Clark Gray","doi":"10.1111/padr.12612","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12612","url":null,"abstract":"The effects of climate change on human migration have received widespread attention, driven in part by concerns about potential large‐scale population displacements. Recent studies demonstrate that climate‐migration linkages are often complex, and climatic variability may increase, decrease, or have null effects on migration. However, the use of noncomparable analytic strategies across studies makes it difficult to disentangle substantive variation in climate effects across populations and places from methodological artifacts. We address this gap by using harmonized census and survey microdata from six Asian countries (<jats:italic>n</jats:italic> = 54,987,838) to measure climate effects on interprovincial migration, overall and among subpopulations defined by age, sex, education, and country of residence. We also evaluate whether climate effects differ according to the distance and type of move. Exposure to precipitation deficits leads to substantively large reductions in out‐migration, and, surprisingly, these overall effects do not vary meaningfully by age, sex, or educational attainment. However, there are significant differences in the strength and direction of temperature and precipitation effects by country and within countries. Multinomial models show that precipitation deficits reduce internal migration to both adjacent and nonadjacent provinces. Finally, consistent with expectations that climate effects operate through economic mechanisms, spells of low precipitation reduce the probability of work‐related moves in the countries where the reason for migration is measured. Our findings provide further evidence that adverse environmental conditions can reduce migration, underlining the need for policymakers to consider how to support both displaced and trapped populations.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140551940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The COVID‐19 pandemic has potential large‐scale impacts on population dynamics. Yet, recent theories and empirical analyses fall short of fully articulating the extent and nature of the pandemic's influence on birth rates at the aggregate level. This study advances the comprehension of fertility dynamics amid the pandemic by focusing on the reproductive process. The effects of the pandemic on conceptions and pregnancy terminations may exhibit considerable variability, which, in turn, could dictate the observed patterns in birth rates during the pandemic. Employing the data from the Performance Monitoring Action survey in Burkina Faso and Kenya, which includes information on conceptions, pregnancy terminations, and births, the research dissects the nuances of fertility behavior in response to the pandemic. Findings indicate an uptick in conception rates around six months following the onset of the pandemic in Kenya, while pregnancy terminations did not significantly shift in either country. Further, the data reveal a pronounced increase in conception rates among disadvantaged groups, whereas a downturn in pregnancy terminations was noted predominantly in urban areas during the early phase of the pandemic. These findings underscore the importance of considering the reproductive process when studying fertility responses to catastrophic events.
{"title":"Fertility Responses to the COVID‐19 Pandemic: A Perspective of Reproductive Process","authors":"Xinguang Fan","doi":"10.1111/padr.12626","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12626","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID‐19 pandemic has potential large‐scale impacts on population dynamics. Yet, recent theories and empirical analyses fall short of fully articulating the extent and nature of the pandemic's influence on birth rates at the aggregate level. This study advances the comprehension of fertility dynamics amid the pandemic by focusing on the reproductive process. The effects of the pandemic on conceptions and pregnancy terminations may exhibit considerable variability, which, in turn, could dictate the observed patterns in birth rates during the pandemic. Employing the data from the Performance Monitoring Action survey in Burkina Faso and Kenya, which includes information on conceptions, pregnancy terminations, and births, the research dissects the nuances of fertility behavior in response to the pandemic. Findings indicate an uptick in conception rates around six months following the onset of the pandemic in Kenya, while pregnancy terminations did not significantly shift in either country. Further, the data reveal a pronounced increase in conception rates among disadvantaged groups, whereas a downturn in pregnancy terminations was noted predominantly in urban areas during the early phase of the pandemic. These findings underscore the importance of considering the reproductive process when studying fertility responses to catastrophic events.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140331228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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