Demographers have long been interested in how fertility ideals vary in response to perceived existential threats. Although migration scholars document the increasingly threatening nature of U.S. immigration policies, little research explores how these policies shape the fertility ideals of those most affected by them. To that end, we exploit spatiotemporal variation in states’ evolving immigrant policy contexts to understand the effects of different policies on the ideal family size of Hispanics—a group who is most likely to be stereotyped as undocumented and most likely to live in mixed‐status households or communities. Specifically, we combine time‐varying information on state‐level immigrant policies with geo‐referenced data from the General Social Survey. Results suggest that ideal family sizes are significantly higher among Hispanics (compared to non‐Hispanic whites) in state‐years with omnibus policies—which bundle multiple restrictive laws together and thus impose sweeping restrictions— compared to state‐years without these policies. On the other hand, sanctuary policies, which aim to curb federal immigration enforcement, and E‐verify mandates, which aim to curb the employment of undocumented immigrants, are not associated with significant differences. Our analyses provide new insights into the complex ways in which the evolving U.S. immigrant policy landscape has far‐reaching impacts on reproductive and family life.
{"title":"State‐Level Immigrant Policies and Ideal Family Size in the United States","authors":"Julia A. Behrman, Abigail Weitzman","doi":"10.1111/padr.12621","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12621","url":null,"abstract":"Demographers have long been interested in how fertility ideals vary in response to perceived existential threats. Although migration scholars document the increasingly threatening nature of U.S. immigration policies, little research explores how these policies shape the fertility ideals of those most affected by them. To that end, we exploit spatiotemporal variation in states’ evolving immigrant policy contexts to understand the effects of different policies on the ideal family size of Hispanics—a group who is most likely to be stereotyped as undocumented and most likely to live in mixed‐status households or communities. Specifically, we combine time‐varying information on state‐level immigrant policies with geo‐referenced data from the General Social Survey. Results suggest that ideal family sizes are significantly higher among Hispanics (compared to non‐Hispanic whites) in state‐years with omnibus policies—which bundle multiple restrictive laws together and thus impose sweeping restrictions— compared to state‐years without these policies. On the other hand, sanctuary policies, which aim to curb federal immigration enforcement, and E‐verify mandates, which aim to curb the employment of undocumented immigrants, are not associated with significant differences. Our analyses provide new insights into the complex ways in which the evolving U.S. immigrant policy landscape has far‐reaching impacts on reproductive and family life.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140317212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The disparity in life expectancy between white and black Americans exceeds five years for men and three years for women. While prior research has investigated the roles of healthcare, health behaviors, biological risk, socioeconomic status, and life course effects on black mortality, the literature on the geographic origins of the gap is more limited. This study examines how the black–white life expectancy gap varies across counties and how much of the national gap is attributable to within-county racial inequality versus differences between counties. The estimates suggest that over 90 percent of the national gap can be attributed to within-county factors. Using a quasi-experimental research design, I find that black–white residential segregation increases the gap by approximately 16 years for men and five years for women. The segregation effect loads heavily on causes of death associated with access to and quality of healthcare; safety and violence; and public health measures. Residential segregation does not appear to operate through health behaviors or individual-level factors but instead acts primarily through institutional mechanisms. Efforts to address racial disparities in mortality should focus on reducing racial residential segregation or reducing inequalities in the mechanisms through which residential segregation acts: public services, employment opportunities, and community resources.
{"title":"Where Does the Black–White Life Expectancy Gap Come From? The Deadly Consequences of Residential Segregation","authors":"Arun S. Hendi","doi":"10.1111/padr.12625","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12625","url":null,"abstract":"The disparity in life expectancy between white and black Americans exceeds five years for men and three years for women. While prior research has investigated the roles of healthcare, health behaviors, biological risk, socioeconomic status, and life course effects on black mortality, the literature on the geographic origins of the gap is more limited. This study examines how the black–white life expectancy gap varies across counties and how much of the national gap is attributable to within-county racial inequality versus differences between counties. The estimates suggest that over 90 percent of the national gap can be attributed to within-county factors. Using a quasi-experimental research design, I find that black–white residential segregation increases the gap by approximately 16 years for men and five years for women. The segregation effect loads heavily on causes of death associated with access to and quality of healthcare; safety and violence; and public health measures. Residential segregation does not appear to operate through health behaviors or individual-level factors but instead acts primarily through institutional mechanisms. Efforts to address racial disparities in mortality should focus on reducing racial residential segregation or reducing inequalities in the mechanisms through which residential segregation acts: public services, employment opportunities, and community resources.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140192786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Contemporary adults often cite economic uncertainty, global warming, and increasing inequality as reasons for intending not to have children. Despite extensive research on the impact of societal pessimism on attitudes towards out-group members, political preferences, and voting behaviors, its impact on demographic behaviors, such as fertility, has received little attention. This study examines the relationship between societal pessimism—captured through individuals' negative perception of the future of the next generation—and their likelihood of becoming a parent. Using data from the Dutch Longitudinal Internet studies for the Social Sciences (LISS), we use discrete-time event history models to estimate the probability of becoming a parent in a given year based on respondents' self-reported negative assessment of the future of the next generation in six distinct areas. Our results demonstrate that perceiving the future of the coming generation as worse than today is associated with a lower probability of becoming a parent. These findings suggest that surveys aimed at understanding fertility behaviors should incorporate questions about individuals' perceptions of the future, in addition to their own contemporaneous conditions.
{"title":"Societal Pessimism and the Transition to Parenthood: A Future Too Bleak to Have Children?","authors":"Katya Ivanova, Nicoletta Balbo","doi":"10.1111/padr.12620","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12620","url":null,"abstract":"Contemporary adults often cite economic uncertainty, global warming, and increasing inequality as reasons for intending not to have children. Despite extensive research on the impact of societal pessimism on attitudes towards out-group members, political preferences, and voting behaviors, its impact on demographic behaviors, such as fertility, has received little attention. This study examines the relationship between societal pessimism—captured through individuals' negative perception of the future of the next generation—and their likelihood of becoming a parent. Using data from the Dutch Longitudinal Internet studies for the Social Sciences (LISS), we use discrete-time event history models to estimate the probability of becoming a parent in a given year based on respondents' self-reported negative assessment of the future of the next generation in six distinct areas. Our results demonstrate that perceiving the future of the coming generation as worse than today is associated with a lower probability of becoming a parent. These findings suggest that surveys aimed at understanding fertility behaviors should incorporate questions about individuals' perceptions of the future, in addition to their own contemporaneous conditions.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"131 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140192776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rich societies have witnessed a postponement of parenthood over the past two decades, and young adults’ economic conditions are often invoked to explain this trend. However, macro-level trends in both “subjective” perceptions of economic uncertainty and “objective” measures of actual income provide no satisfactory explanation for the postponement of parenthood. We propose a potential solution to this puzzle by hypothesizing that the economic prerequisites of parenthood have increased over the past two decades. We expect that this has raised the degree of perceived economic certainty and the level of income that people wish to achieve before having a first child. To test this hypothesis, we draw on individual-level longitudinal data from seven countries from the Comparative Panel File. Our findings show that young adults’ perceived economic uncertainty is not consistently associated with the transition to parenthood. Moreover, the effects of perceived economic uncertainty did not change over time. In contrast, we find consistent evidence that the link between income and first birth has become more strongly positive over the past two decades. This is true mainly for women but also for men, and suggests that increasing income prerequisites are a key mechanism behind the postponement of parenthood.
{"title":"Fertility Postponement, Economic Uncertainty, and the Increasing Income Prerequisites of Parenthood","authors":"Daniël van Wijk, Francesco C. Billari","doi":"10.1111/padr.12624","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12624","url":null,"abstract":"Rich societies have witnessed a postponement of parenthood over the past two decades, and young adults’ economic conditions are often invoked to explain this trend. However, macro-level trends in both “subjective” perceptions of economic uncertainty and “objective” measures of actual income provide no satisfactory explanation for the postponement of parenthood. We propose a potential solution to this puzzle by hypothesizing that the economic prerequisites of parenthood have increased over the past two decades. We expect that this has raised the degree of perceived economic certainty and the level of income that people wish to achieve before having a first child. To test this hypothesis, we draw on individual-level longitudinal data from seven countries from the Comparative Panel File. Our findings show that young adults’ perceived economic uncertainty is not consistently associated with the transition to parenthood. Moreover, the effects of perceived economic uncertainty did not change over time. In contrast, we find consistent evidence that the link between income and first birth has become more strongly positive over the past two decades. This is true mainly for women but also for men, and suggests that increasing income prerequisites are a key mechanism behind the postponement of parenthood.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140142111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Early in 2020, experts warned of the devastating toll that COVID-19 would have on African countries. By the close of 2021, however, Africa remained one of the least affected regions in the world, leading commentators to speculate about a so-called “Africa paradox”. This review evaluates current research and data to establish the burden of COVID-19 infections and mortality in the African region. Despite claims that African countries were spared from COVID-19 infection, there is now considerable serological evidence confirming that people in African countries ultimately experienced levels of SARS-CoV2 infection comparable to or more than people in other global regions. Additionally, multiple measures demonstrate substantial impacts of COVID-19 on mortality in specific African countries where mortality and/or seroprevalence data are available. The gaps between recorded cases and seroprevalence are large and increased over the course of the pandemic. Researchers also observe significant gaps between recorded COVID-19 deaths and other measures of mortality, attributable to weak civil and vital registration systems, limited health care resources, and higher mortality at younger ages. Our findings reinforce the need for more equitable global distribution of health care resources and expanded disease and mortality surveillance across the continent.
{"title":"The Missing Millions: Uncovering the Burden of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths in the African Region","authors":"Tara McKay, Rachel Sullivan Robinson, Serena Musungu, Nana Addo Padi-Adjirackor, Nicole Angotti","doi":"10.1111/padr.12608","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12608","url":null,"abstract":"Early in 2020, experts warned of the devastating toll that COVID-19 would have on African countries. By the close of 2021, however, Africa remained one of the least affected regions in the world, leading commentators to speculate about a so-called “Africa paradox”. This review evaluates current research and data to establish the burden of COVID-19 infections and mortality in the African region. Despite claims that African countries were spared from COVID-19 infection, there is now considerable serological evidence confirming that people in African countries ultimately experienced levels of SARS-CoV2 infection comparable to or more than people in other global regions. Additionally, multiple measures demonstrate substantial impacts of COVID-19 on mortality in specific African countries where mortality and/or seroprevalence data are available. The gaps between recorded cases and seroprevalence are large and increased over the course of the pandemic. Researchers also observe significant gaps between recorded COVID-19 deaths and other measures of mortality, attributable to weak civil and vital registration systems, limited health care resources, and higher mortality at younger ages. Our findings reinforce the need for more equitable global distribution of health care resources and expanded disease and mortality surveillance across the continent.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140117975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Henry Kissinger on Population and National Security","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/padr.12613","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12613","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140130158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this article, we bring together a variety of studies, both old and new, to examine continuity and change in population dynamics in Italy during the medieval millennium (476–1492 AD). Though the available data are often sporadic and should be interpreted with great caution, it is possible to clarify certain dynamics, which can be useful for guiding future research. First, population fluctuations were not impacted by migration into or out of Italy. Second, medieval Italy was characterized by a high‐pressure demographic regime: e0 was around 20 years, with high adult mortality, and the birth rate was around 50 per mill. Third, despite high mortality, the Italian population grew (+50 percent) from the ninth century to 1347, mainly—but not exclusively—due to the absence of plague. Fourth, the stagnant population of the periods between the sixth and the eighth centuries and the 14th and 16th centuries was determined by the recurrent outbreaks of plague. Fifth, the population stagnation during the first and the last medieval centuries is also partly related to the increase in age at first marriage, while the demographic growth between the ninth and mid‐14th century is possibly connected to the decrease in age at first marriage among women. Sixth, the vitality of the medieval Italian population was partly ensured by a high rate of remarriage among widows. Seventh, data on statures show that mortality levels were determined by epidemic factors, rather than living standards. Finally, when the plague ceased in Europe in the middle of the Early Modern Age, adult survival was significantly higher than in the ancient and medieval centuries, despite the fact that neither hygienic‐sanitary nor epidemiological conditions, and certainly not nutrition, were better than in the centuries preceding the Black Death.
{"title":"Demographic Systems of Medieval Italy (6th–15th century AD)","authors":"Irene Barbiera, Gianpiero Dalla‐Zuanna","doi":"10.1111/padr.12611","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12611","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we bring together a variety of studies, both old and new, to examine continuity and change in population dynamics in Italy during the medieval millennium (476–1492 AD). Though the available data are often sporadic and should be interpreted with great caution, it is possible to clarify certain dynamics, which can be useful for guiding future research. First, population fluctuations were not impacted by migration into or out of Italy. Second, medieval Italy was characterized by a high‐pressure demographic regime: <jats:italic>e</jats:italic><jats:sub>0</jats:sub> was around 20 years, with high adult mortality, and the birth rate was around 50 per mill. Third, despite high mortality, the Italian population grew (+50 percent) from the ninth century to 1347, mainly—but not exclusively—due to the absence of plague. Fourth, the stagnant population of the periods between the sixth and the eighth centuries and the 14th and 16th centuries was determined by the recurrent outbreaks of plague. Fifth, the population stagnation during the first and the last medieval centuries is also partly related to the increase in age at first marriage, while the demographic growth between the ninth and mid‐14th century is possibly connected to the decrease in age at first marriage among women. Sixth, the vitality of the medieval Italian population was partly ensured by a high rate of remarriage among widows. Seventh, data on statures show that mortality levels were determined by epidemic factors, rather than living standards. Finally, when the plague ceased in Europe in the middle of the Early Modern Age, adult survival was significantly higher than in the ancient and medieval centuries, despite the fact that neither hygienic‐sanitary nor epidemiological conditions, and certainly not nutrition, were better than in the centuries preceding the Black Death.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"82 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140069835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"ACKNOWLEDGMENTS","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/padr.12617","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12617","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140053627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reconciling Family Aspirations and Paid Work in the European Union","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/padr.12615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12615","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140015606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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