Alina Pelikh, Hanna Remes, Niina Metsä‐Simola, Alice Goisis
Despite the increasing use of medically assisted reproduction (MAR) in modern societies, there is limited evidence on whether conceiving with MAR or remaining involuntarily childless after MAR is associated with partnership stability. While older age, the more advantaged socioeconomic position of women undergoing MAR and their strong fertility intentions could lead to higher partnership stability, the experience of infertility and undergoing MAR may have an opposite effect, especially if couples remain involuntarily childless. Using data on Finnish nulliparous couples from 1995–2017 (N = 149,884) and event‐history models, we compare the risk of separation of couples who remained childless after MAR (N = 3871), who conceived through MAR (N = 14,474), who conceived naturally without MAR (N = 167,962) or with a prior history of MAR (N = 2273). Couples who remained childless after MAR had a higher risk of separation than couples who conceived with MAR or naturally. The higher risk of separation decreased over time since the discontinuation of treatments but persisted over the longer term. There were no differences in the risk of separation between couples who conceived with MAR or naturally. The results suggest that involuntary childlessness after MAR is associated with an increased risk of separation while undergoing MAR/experiencing infertility does not seem to play a role.
尽管现代社会越来越多地使用医学辅助生殖（MAR），但关于接受医学辅助生殖后怀孕或非自愿无子女是否与伴侣关系的稳定性有关的证据却很有限。虽然接受MAR的女性年龄较大、社会经济地位较高以及她们强烈的生育意愿可能会导致伴侣关系更稳定，但不孕和接受MAR的经历可能会产生相反的影响，尤其是在夫妇非自愿无子女的情况下。我们利用1995-2017年芬兰无子宫夫妇的数据（N = 149884）和事件历史模型，比较了接受MAR后仍无子女的夫妇（N = 3871）、通过MAR受孕的夫妇（N = 14474）、未接受MAR而自然受孕的夫妇（N = 167962）或曾接受MAR的夫妇（N = 2273）的分离风险。与通过 MAR 或自然受孕的夫妇相比，MAR 后仍无子女的夫妇有更高的分离风险。较高的分离风险在停止治疗后随时间推移而降低，但在较长时期内持续存在。使用 MAR 或自然受孕的夫妇的分离风险没有差异。研究结果表明，MAR 后非自愿无子与分居风险增加有关，而接受 MAR/经历不孕似乎没有影响。
{"title":"Medically Assisted Reproduction and Partnership Stability","authors":"Alina Pelikh, Hanna Remes, Niina Metsä‐Simola, Alice Goisis","doi":"10.1111/padr.12660","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12660","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the increasing use of medically assisted reproduction (MAR) in modern societies, there is limited evidence on whether conceiving with MAR or remaining involuntarily childless after MAR is associated with partnership stability. While older age, the more advantaged socioeconomic position of women undergoing MAR and their strong fertility intentions could lead to higher partnership stability, the experience of infertility and undergoing MAR may have an opposite effect, especially if couples remain involuntarily childless. Using data on Finnish nulliparous couples from 1995–2017 (<jats:italic>N</jats:italic> = 149,884) and event‐history models, we compare the risk of separation of couples who remained childless after MAR (<jats:italic>N</jats:italic> = 3871), who conceived through MAR (<jats:italic>N</jats:italic> = 14,474), who conceived naturally without MAR (<jats:italic>N</jats:italic> = 167,962) or with a prior history of MAR (<jats:italic>N</jats:italic> = 2273). Couples who remained childless after MAR had a higher risk of separation than couples who conceived with MAR or naturally. The higher risk of separation decreased over time since the discontinuation of treatments but persisted over the longer term. There were no differences in the risk of separation between couples who conceived with MAR or naturally. The results suggest that involuntary childlessness after MAR is associated with an increased risk of separation while undergoing MAR/experiencing infertility does not seem to play a role.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"140 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142123699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Increased gender equality in the labor market and the home are both cited as stabilizers to income inequality between households, but shifts in the economic organization of families over the life course instead appear to amplify household income inequality. Using the case of Sweden, where men have taken longer parental leave in recent years and the age at parenthood continues to advance, we analyze between‐family income inequality for couples with a young child. Based on income data from population registers, we decompose how changes in family dynamics, pre‐ and postparenthood, contributed to income inequality in families with children between the years 1995 and 2018. Analyses show no evidence that assortative mating has increased and that a minor decline in inequality between couples over this 24‐year period resulted from two opposing trends: Dis‐equalizing changes related to women's postbirth income advancements were eclipsed by equalizing changes related to the postponement of parenthood. Postbirth income trends reveal how between‐family inequality increased through women's income development and decreased through men's. Our findings confirm the importance of family processes to household inequality and show the complex effects of both changes in the timing of parenthood and improved gender equality.
{"title":"How Family Dynamics Shape Income Inequality Between Families With Young Children: The Case of Sweden, 1995–2018","authors":"Sunnee Billingsley, Pilar Gonalons‐Pons, Ann‐Zofie Duvander","doi":"10.1111/padr.12654","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12654","url":null,"abstract":"Increased gender equality in the labor market and the home are both cited as stabilizers to income inequality between households, but shifts in the economic organization of families over the life course instead appear to amplify household income inequality. Using the case of Sweden, where men have taken longer parental leave in recent years and the age at parenthood continues to advance, we analyze between‐family income inequality for couples with a young child. Based on income data from population registers, we decompose how changes in family dynamics, pre‐ and postparenthood, contributed to income inequality in families with children between the years 1995 and 2018. Analyses show no evidence that assortative mating has increased and that a minor decline in inequality between couples over this 24‐year period resulted from two opposing trends: Dis‐equalizing changes related to women's postbirth income advancements were eclipsed by equalizing changes related to the postponement of parenthood. Postbirth income trends reveal how between‐family inequality increased through women's income development and decreased through men's. Our findings confirm the importance of family processes to household inequality and show the complex effects of both changes in the timing of parenthood and improved gender equality.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"100 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142100897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Markus Sauerberg, Florian Bonnet, Carlo Giovanni Camarda, Pavel Grigoriev
The conventional approach to gauging mortality convergence in Europe relies on life expectancy estimates () at the national level. However, mortality can differ within countries significantly. To better apprehend whether Europe's mortality patterns have been converging or diverging over recent decades, we must shift our focus to regional mortality data. Using data from statistical offices, we present annual estimates for 420 regions in 16 EU countries from 1995 to 2019. In our empirical analysis, we examined whether regions with initially high mortality levels caught up with low‐mortality regions, and we investigated changes in the standard deviation of Europe's regional distribution over time. Indeed, mortality variation has generally decreased from 1995 to 2019 due to larger gains in for regions with initially high mortality levels. The convergence phase took place mostly during the first half of the entire time period analyzed. Over more recent periods, however, we observe more heterogeneity in the development of . Some advantaged regions realized further gains in , even as improvements slowed for more disadvantaged regions. In conclusion, our analysis underscores the importance of addressing widening health inequalities. Policies should target disadvantaged regions to retard mortality divergence across Europe.
{"title":"Mortality Convergence in Europe? Spatial Differences in Life Expectancy Gains Between 1995 and 2019","authors":"Markus Sauerberg, Florian Bonnet, Carlo Giovanni Camarda, Pavel Grigoriev","doi":"10.1111/padr.12657","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12657","url":null,"abstract":"The conventional approach to gauging mortality convergence in Europe relies on life expectancy estimates () at the national level. However, mortality can differ within countries significantly. To better apprehend whether Europe's mortality patterns have been converging or diverging over recent decades, we must shift our focus to regional mortality data. Using data from statistical offices, we present annual estimates for 420 regions in 16 EU countries from 1995 to 2019. In our empirical analysis, we examined whether regions with initially high mortality levels caught up with low‐mortality regions, and we investigated changes in the standard deviation of Europe's regional distribution over time. Indeed, mortality variation has generally decreased from 1995 to 2019 due to larger gains in for regions with initially high mortality levels. The convergence phase took place mostly during the first half of the entire time period analyzed. Over more recent periods, however, we observe more heterogeneity in the development of . Some advantaged regions realized further gains in , even as improvements slowed for more disadvantaged regions. In conclusion, our analysis underscores the importance of addressing widening health inequalities. Policies should target disadvantaged regions to retard mortality divergence across Europe.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141904585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Most studies on the impact of birth intentions on children's well‐being do not separate risks of infant mortality associated with pregnancy intention status from the risks that are associated with sociodemographic characteristics. There is a lack of studies taking a multicountry comparative perspective. We analyzed 60 Demographic and Health Surveys in Asia, the Americas, and Africa to examine the association between birth intentions and infant mortality using sibling fixed‐effects linear probability models accounting for confounding due to time‐invariant maternal characteristics. Compared to wanted births, the probability of infant mortality was higher after an unwanted or mistimed birth, or both, in 41 countries. Particularly in West Africa, mostly mistimed pregnancies were associated with infant mortality, whereas in the Americas unwanted pregnancies mattered more. These differences could be partly due to contextual variation in the concept of birth intentions and in the importance of birth spacing and limiting. We show that the risk of infant mortality after an unwanted/mistimed pregnancy was higher in countries with low human development index and high overall infant mortality rate, highlighting the importance of taking context into account rather than pooling data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first large‐scale, cross‐regional, and cross‐country comparative study to analyze the association between birth intentions and infant mortality using a fixed‐effects approach.
{"title":"Birth Intention Status and Infant Mortality: Fixed‐Effects Analysis of 60 Countries","authors":"Heini Väisänen, Ewa Batyra","doi":"10.1111/padr.12652","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12652","url":null,"abstract":"Most studies on the impact of birth intentions on children's well‐being do not separate risks of infant mortality associated with pregnancy intention status from the risks that are associated with sociodemographic characteristics. There is a lack of studies taking a multicountry comparative perspective. We analyzed 60 Demographic and Health Surveys in Asia, the Americas, and Africa to examine the association between birth intentions and infant mortality using sibling fixed‐effects linear probability models accounting for confounding due to time‐invariant maternal characteristics. Compared to wanted births, the probability of infant mortality was higher after an unwanted or mistimed birth, or both, in 41 countries. Particularly in West Africa, mostly mistimed pregnancies were associated with infant mortality, whereas in the Americas unwanted pregnancies mattered more. These differences could be partly due to contextual variation in the concept of birth intentions and in the importance of birth spacing and limiting. We show that the risk of infant mortality after an unwanted/mistimed pregnancy was higher in countries with low human development index and high overall infant mortality rate, highlighting the importance of taking context into account rather than pooling data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first large‐scale, cross‐regional, and cross‐country comparative study to analyze the association between birth intentions and infant mortality using a fixed‐effects approach.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141857767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Joshua Wilde, Wei Chen, Sophie Lohmann, Jasmin Abdel Ghany
At the onset of the first wave of COVID‐19 in the United States, the pandemic's effect on future birthrates was unknown. In this paper, we assess whether digital trace data—often touted as a panacea for traditional data scarcity—held the potential to accurately predict fertility change caused by the COVID‐19 pandemic in the United States. Specifically, we produced state‐level, dynamic future predictions of the pandemic's effect on birthrates in the United States using pregnancy‐related Google search data. Importantly, these predictions were made in October 2020 (and revised in February 2021), well before the birth effect of the pandemic could have possibly been known. Our analysis predicted that between November 2020 and February 2021, monthly United States births would drop sharply by approximately 12 percent, then begin to rebound while remaining depressed through August 2021. While these predictions were generally accurate in terms of the magnitude and timing of the trough, there were important misses regarding the speed at which these reductions materialized and rebounded. This ex post evaluation of an ex ante prediction serves as a powerful demonstration of the “promise and pitfalls” of digital trace data in demographic research.
{"title":"Digital Trace Data and Demographic Forecasting: How Well Did Google Predict the US COVID‐19 Baby Bust?","authors":"Joshua Wilde, Wei Chen, Sophie Lohmann, Jasmin Abdel Ghany","doi":"10.1111/padr.12647","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12647","url":null,"abstract":"At the onset of the first wave of COVID‐19 in the United States, the pandemic's effect on future birthrates was unknown. In this paper, we assess whether digital trace data—often touted as a panacea for traditional data scarcity—held the potential to accurately predict fertility change caused by the COVID‐19 pandemic in the United States. Specifically, we produced state‐level, dynamic future predictions of the pandemic's effect on birthrates in the United States using pregnancy‐related Google search data. Importantly, these predictions were made in October 2020 (and revised in February 2021), well before the birth effect of the pandemic could have possibly been known. Our analysis predicted that between November 2020 and February 2021, monthly United States births would drop sharply by approximately 12 percent, then begin to rebound while remaining depressed through August 2021. While these predictions were generally accurate in terms of the magnitude and timing of the trough, there were important misses regarding the speed at which these reductions materialized and rebounded. This ex post evaluation of an ex ante prediction serves as a powerful demonstration of the “promise and pitfalls” of digital trace data in demographic research.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141857766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alice Mesnard, Filip Savatic, Jean‐Noël Senne, Hélène Thiollet
Migrant destination states of the Global North generally seek to stem irregular migration while remaining committed to refugee rights. To do so, these states have increasingly sought to externalize migration control, implicating migrant origin and transit states in managing the movement of persons across borders. But do externalization policies actually have an impact on unauthorized migration flows? If yes, do those impacts vary across different migrant categories given that both asylum seekers and other migrants can cross borders without prior authorization? We argue that these policies do have an impact on unauthorized migration flows and that those impacts are distinct for refugees and other migrants. Using data on “irregular/illegal border crossings” collected by Frontex, the Border and Coast Guard Agency of the European Union (EU), we first find that the geographical trajectories of refugees and other migrants who cross EU borders without authorization are distinct. Using a novel method to estimate whether individuals are likely to obtain asylum in 31 European destination states, we find that “likely refugees” tend to be concentrated on a single, primary migratory route while “likely irregular migrants” may be dispersed across multiple routes. Through an event study analysis of the impact of the 2016 EU–Turkey Statement, a paradigmatic example of externalization, we show that the policy primarily blocked likely refugees while deflecting likely irregular migrants to alternative routes. Our findings ultimately highlight how externalization policies may fail to prevent unauthorized entries of irregular migrants while endangering refugee protection.
{"title":"Revolving Doors: How Externalization Policies Block Refugees and Deflect Other Migrants across Migration Routes","authors":"Alice Mesnard, Filip Savatic, Jean‐Noël Senne, Hélène Thiollet","doi":"10.1111/padr.12650","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12650","url":null,"abstract":"Migrant destination states of the Global North generally seek to stem irregular migration while remaining committed to refugee rights. To do so, these states have increasingly sought to externalize migration control, implicating migrant origin and transit states in managing the movement of persons across borders. But do externalization policies actually have an impact on unauthorized migration flows? If yes, do those impacts vary across different migrant categories given that both asylum seekers and other migrants can cross borders without prior authorization? We argue that these policies do have an impact on unauthorized migration flows and that those impacts are distinct for refugees and other migrants. Using data on “irregular/illegal border crossings” collected by Frontex, the Border and Coast Guard Agency of the European Union (EU), we first find that the geographical trajectories of refugees and other migrants who cross EU borders without authorization are distinct. Using a novel method to estimate whether individuals are likely to obtain asylum in 31 European destination states, we find that “likely refugees” tend to be concentrated on a single, primary migratory route while “likely irregular migrants” may be dispersed across multiple routes. Through an event study analysis of the impact of the 2016 EU–Turkey Statement, a paradigmatic example of externalization, we show that the policy primarily blocked likely refugees while deflecting likely irregular migrants to alternative routes. Our findings ultimately highlight how externalization policies may fail to prevent unauthorized entries of irregular migrants while endangering refugee protection.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141755166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
When the COVID‐19 pandemic began in early 2020, speculation was rife both in public and academic spheres over its possible effects on birth rates and partnership behavior. Now, over four years later, we still know surprisingly little about the effect of COVID‐19 on fertility and family dynamics. In this paper, we outline three main takeaways from the scientific literature produced on this topic in the past four years. We argue that (1) we still do not have enough data to answer basic questions about the effect of COVID‐19 on fertility and family dynamics, (2) the data we do have suggest an unexpectedly incoherent and heterogeneous response, and (3) the estimated effects we do have are suspect since shifting and theoretically unexpected prepandemic fertility behavior made identifying a strict causal effect of the pandemic problematic.
{"title":"Fertility and Family Dynamics in the Aftermath of the COVID‐19 Pandemic","authors":"Natalie Nitsche, Joshua Wilde","doi":"10.1111/padr.12648","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12648","url":null,"abstract":"When the COVID‐19 pandemic began in early 2020, speculation was rife both in public and academic spheres over its possible effects on birth rates and partnership behavior. Now, over four years later, we still know surprisingly little about the effect of COVID‐19 on fertility and family dynamics. In this paper, we outline three main takeaways from the scientific literature produced on this topic in the past four years. We argue that (1) we still do not have enough data to answer basic questions about the effect of COVID‐19 on fertility and family dynamics, (2) the data we do have suggest an unexpectedly incoherent and heterogeneous response, and (3) the estimated effects we do have are suspect since shifting and theoretically unexpected prepandemic fertility behavior made identifying a strict causal effect of the pandemic problematic.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"79 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141726340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Venezuelan exodus represents the largest known displacement of people in recent Latin American history. The regional crisis caused by this mass Venezuelan migration drove the development of multiple interagency initiatives (such as the R4V platform) as well as academic attempts to keep track of outflow intensity. However, little is known about the age and gender composition of the emigrants since most existing literature to date has focused primarily on total volume and country‐specific shares of migration outflows. This study examines the demographics of recent outflows from Venezuela, the chronology of associated changes, and the demographic implications for those remaining in the country. Official counts of Venezuelan‐born populations compiled in seven main destinations are used to estimate annual outflows by age and gender from 2011 to 2021. Changes in the demographic composition of emigration are traced using parameters of the Rogers–Castro model, specifically the children‐to‐labor force dominance, and by decomposing the age contributions to the annual gross migraproduction rate. In the early phase of the crisis (2014–2017), emigration flows had high child dependency ratios. As the crisis entered its most acute phase (peaking in 2019), the mean age of migrants increased. Outward migration has resulted in the current Venezuelan population having 20 percent fewer women of reproductive age and 17.8 percent fewer individuals of working age. Consequently, the share of the population aged 60 or older has increased.
{"title":"The Demography of Crisis‐Driven Outflows from Venezuela","authors":"Jenny Garcia Arias","doi":"10.1111/padr.12651","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12651","url":null,"abstract":"The Venezuelan exodus represents the largest known displacement of people in recent Latin American history. The regional crisis caused by this mass Venezuelan migration drove the development of multiple interagency initiatives (such as the R4V platform) as well as academic attempts to keep track of outflow intensity. However, little is known about the age and gender composition of the emigrants since most existing literature to date has focused primarily on total volume and country‐specific shares of migration outflows. This study examines the demographics of recent outflows from Venezuela, the chronology of associated changes, and the demographic implications for those remaining in the country. Official counts of Venezuelan‐born populations compiled in seven main destinations are used to estimate annual outflows by age and gender from 2011 to 2021. Changes in the demographic composition of emigration are traced using parameters of the Rogers–Castro model, specifically the children‐to‐labor force dominance, and by decomposing the age contributions to the annual gross migraproduction rate. In the early phase of the crisis (2014–2017), emigration flows had high child dependency ratios. As the crisis entered its most acute phase (peaking in 2019), the mean age of migrants increased. Outward migration has resulted in the current Venezuelan population having 20 percent fewer women of reproductive age and 17.8 percent fewer individuals of working age. Consequently, the share of the population aged 60 or older has increased.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"79 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141726341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Migration theorizing has coalesced around sets encompassing several frameworks. Despite many contributions of these collections, contemporary migration theorizing exhibits three important shortcomings, which this paper aims to address. First, sets of theories have traditionally not explicitly and jointly addressed fundamental questions in migration, namely (i) key motivations beyond those related to “labor” (turmoil; environmental strain; family, or self‐realization factors); (ii) how important axes of social difference produce distinct motivations and mechanisms (e.g., by gender and sexuality); (iii) the (in)direct roles of the state; (iv) important spatial considerations, that is, immobility, internal versus international movement, step/onward/secondary migrations; and (v) key issues of temporality, that is, return migration, its timing, and intentionality. Engaging with classical and contemporary scholarship, I provide an updated, revised, and broadened set of frameworks and analytical lenses that better incorporate these issues. Second, the most common typology used to categorize frameworks into “initiation” and “continuation” suffers from ambiguity and imprecision. I offer a new classification, typifying mechanisms as more/less endogenous to prior migrations. Third, scholarship has advanced little in systematically examining whether/how theories relate to each other. I provide a basic taxonomy of mechanism “competition,” “coexistence,” co‐occurrence, and interrelation. I conclude by proposing a new and expanded set of frameworks and analytical lenses, reflecting on the implications of these modifications.
{"title":"Worlds in Motion Redux? Expanding Migration Theories and Their Interconnections","authors":"Fernando Riosmena","doi":"10.1111/padr.12630","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12630","url":null,"abstract":"Migration theorizing has coalesced around sets encompassing several frameworks. Despite many contributions of these collections, contemporary migration theorizing exhibits three important shortcomings, which this paper aims to address. First, sets of theories have traditionally not explicitly and jointly addressed fundamental questions in migration, namely (i) key motivations beyond those related to “labor” (turmoil; environmental strain; family, or self‐realization factors); (ii) how important axes of social difference produce distinct motivations and mechanisms (e.g., by gender and sexuality); (iii) the (in)direct roles of the state; (iv) important spatial considerations, that is, immobility, internal versus international movement, step/onward/secondary migrations; and (v) key issues of temporality, that is, return migration, its timing, and intentionality. Engaging with classical and contemporary scholarship, I provide an updated, revised, and broadened set of frameworks and analytical lenses that better incorporate these issues. Second, the most common typology used to categorize frameworks into “initiation” and “continuation” suffers from ambiguity and imprecision. I offer a new classification, typifying mechanisms as more/less endogenous to prior migrations. Third, scholarship has advanced little in systematically examining whether/how theories relate to each other. I provide a basic taxonomy of mechanism “competition,” “coexistence,” co‐occurrence, and interrelation. I conclude by proposing a new and expanded set of frameworks and analytical lenses, reflecting on the implications of these modifications.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141602637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
For decades, educational inequalities in mortality have widened and mortality among the least educated has stalled, even as overall mortality has improved, and an increasing proportion of young people have completed secondary and tertiary education. While researchers recognize that these trends are in part related to changing selection into education groups, there has been no unifying framework for understanding why the trends may be related. This article provides a unifying framework by introducing a concept called the “convex inequality regime,” a diminishing returns relationship between relative education and mortality. In populations where convex inequality regimes prevail, even without any changes in the institutions governing inequality or any changes in overall mortality conditions, education transitions result in an increase in mortality for the less educated and an increase in mortality inequality between education groups. The model also shows that lifespan variation increases for lower education groups because convex inequality regimes tend to increase relative mortality more rapidly at younger ages during an education transition. Even after an education transition is complete, inequality between education groups will continue to increase for decades due to the momentum of inequality, a cohort replacement phenomenon where younger more unequal cohorts replace older more equal cohorts.
{"title":"Does Inequality Have Momentum? The Implications of Convex Inequality Regimes for Mortality Dynamics","authors":"Arun S. Hendi","doi":"10.1111/padr.12649","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12649","url":null,"abstract":"For decades, educational inequalities in mortality have widened and mortality among the least educated has stalled, even as overall mortality has improved, and an increasing proportion of young people have completed secondary and tertiary education. While researchers recognize that these trends are in part related to changing selection into education groups, there has been no unifying framework for understanding why the trends may be related. This article provides a unifying framework by introducing a concept called the “convex inequality regime,” a diminishing returns relationship between relative education and mortality. In populations where convex inequality regimes prevail, even without any changes in the institutions governing inequality or any changes in overall mortality conditions, education transitions result in an increase in mortality for the less educated and an increase in mortality inequality between education groups. The model also shows that lifespan variation increases for lower education groups because convex inequality regimes tend to increase relative mortality more rapidly at younger ages during an education transition. Even after an education transition is complete, inequality between education groups will continue to increase for decades due to the momentum of inequality, a cohort replacement phenomenon where younger more unequal cohorts replace older more equal cohorts.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141566087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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