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Trends in Completed Fertility by Educational Field: Swedish Men and Women Born 1946–1975 按教育领域划分的已完成生育率趋势:1946-1975年出生的瑞典男女
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1111/padr.70008
Mark Gortfelder, Gunnar Andersson, Gerda Neyer
Previous research on fertility by field of education has revealed stronger fertility variation than by the more frequently studied metric of educational level. However, this line of research has not focused on both men and women and changes across cohorts. Our study is the first to analyze cohort trends in fertility by field of education for both sexes and includes the cohorts of educational expansion and the development towards the dual‐earner–dual carer family model. We focus on native Swedes born 1946–1975. Swedish register data are used to depict educational orientation, educational level, and the number of children at age 45. The ranking of educational fields by childlessness and completed fertility is remarkably similar for men and women and stable across cohorts. Distinguishing the fields by level gives a largely analogous picture, but detailing educational fields reveals some different developments by sex and cohort. The similarity in patterns between men and women suggests that field‐based attributes and conditions in resulting occupations may matter more than gender conformity for fertility outcomes.
以往按教育领域对生育率的研究表明,生育率的变化比更经常研究的教育水平指标更大。然而,这方面的研究并没有同时关注男性和女性,也没有关注人群之间的变化。我们的研究首次分析了按性别教育领域划分的生育率队列趋势,并包括教育扩张和向双收入-双照顾家庭模式发展的队列。我们专注于1946-1975年出生的瑞典本地人。瑞典的登记数据用于描述教育取向、教育水平和45岁儿童的数量。男性和女性在教育领域的无子女和已完成生育的排名非常相似,而且在各个群体中都很稳定。按水平区分这些领域大致可以得出类似的结果,但详细描述教育领域则显示出按性别和群体划分的一些不同发展。男性和女性之间模式的相似性表明,基于领域的属性和所产生的职业条件可能比性别一致性对生育结果更重要。
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引用次数: 0
Conceptualizing and Measuring the Contribution of Assisted Reproductive Technologies to Fertility Rates 概念化和测量辅助生殖技术对生育率的贡献
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-03-23 DOI: 10.1111/padr.70009
Jenny Chanfreau, Alice Goisis, Øystein Kravdal
Against the backdrop of the rising use of assisted reproductive technologies (ART), we argue that more reflection on the measurement and conceptualization of the contribution of ART to fertility rates is warranted. First, despite evidence of marked sociodemographic stratification in ART use, research on the ART contribution to fertility rates has largely overlooked how ART contributes differently to fertility levels across sociodemographic groups. Second, existing work tends to be ambiguous regarding what fertility would have looked like if ART had not been available. We demonstrate the importance of these points through period (1986–2018) and cohort (women born in 1949–1974) analyses using data from the Norwegian Population Registers. We demonstrate empirically the absolute and relative variation in the contribution of ART to fertility across sociodemographic subgroups. Whereas the relative ART contribution was highest and increasing steeply in recent years for women 40+, in absolute terms it was substantially higher for women in their thirties. Unlike natural fertility, differences in the absolute contribution of ART to the fertility of education groups were increasing over time. Then, considering a range of assumptions, we show that the “crude” contribution of ART may be either an overestimation or an underestimation compared to the “net” contribution. Our results prompt important reflections on how ART is framed in policy and scholarship.
在辅助生殖技术(ART)使用不断增加的背景下,我们认为有必要对ART对生育率的贡献的测量和概念化进行更多的反思。首先,尽管有证据表明抗逆转录病毒药物使用中存在明显的社会人口分层,但有关抗逆转录病毒药物对生育率贡献的研究在很大程度上忽视了抗逆转录病毒药物对不同社会人口群体生育率水平的不同贡献。其次,现有的研究对于如果没有抗逆转录病毒治疗,生育能力会是什么样子往往是模棱两可的。我们通过使用挪威人口登记处的数据进行时期(1986-2018)和队列(1949-1974年出生的女性)分析,证明了这些点的重要性。我们从经验上证明了ART对不同社会人口亚组生育率贡献的绝对和相对变化。近年来,40岁以上妇女接受抗逆转录病毒治疗的相对贡献最高且急剧增加,但从绝对值来看,30多岁妇女的贡献要高得多。与自然生育率不同,ART对受教育群体生育率的绝对贡献的差异随着时间的推移而增加。然后,考虑一系列假设,我们表明,与“净”贡献相比,抗逆转录病毒治疗的“粗”贡献可能被高估或低估。我们的研究结果引发了对ART如何在政策和学术中形成框架的重要思考。
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引用次数: 0
Fifty Years of Population and Development Review: Shifting Research Themes, Authorship, and Academic Impact in Comparative Perspective 人口与发展回顾五十年:比较视角下研究主题、作者和学术影响的转变
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/padr.70001
Ridhi Kashyap, Aasli Abdi Nur
To mark the Population and Development Review's (PDR) 50th anniversary, we analyze its contributions to the landscape of population research. We examine the trajectory of research published in PDR and compare it with two leading and long‐standing English‐language demographic journals, Demography and Population Studies. Through a computational meta‐analysis of all articles published across the three journals over the past 50 years, we explore trends in knowledge production focusing on research themes and authorship characteristics. Our automated text analysis highlights the prominence of fertility, family, and mortality themes across all three journals, but with PDR placing greater emphasis on development, policy, and population growth. Interest in migration and health‐related topics has also increased over time across all journals, including PDR. Our analysis of authorship characteristics reveals a persistent overrepresentation of scholars located in Global North countries, particularly the United States, across all three journals. While the prominence of the United States has declined in PDR, European representation has grown, alongside a relative decline in Global South authors compared with earlier decades. Over the past 50 years, all three journals have had a male‐dominated authorship, but gender balance has improved significantly, reaching near parity in recent years.
为纪念《人口与发展评论》创刊50周年,本文分析了《人口与发展评论》对人口研究领域的贡献。我们考察了PDR上发表的研究轨迹,并将其与两种领先且长期存在的英语人口统计学期刊《人口学》和《人口研究》进行了比较。通过对过去50年在这三种期刊上发表的所有文章的计算元分析,我们探讨了以研究主题和作者特征为重点的知识生产趋势。我们的自动文本分析突出了生育、家庭和死亡率主题在所有三种期刊中的突出地位,但PDR更强调发展、政策和人口增长。随着时间的推移,包括PDR在内的所有期刊对移民和健康相关主题的兴趣也在增加。我们对作者身份特征的分析显示,在所有三种期刊中,来自全球北方国家(尤其是美国)的学者持续占比过高。虽然美国在PDR中的突出地位有所下降,但欧洲的代表性却有所增加,与前几十年相比,全球南方作者的数量相对下降。在过去的50年里,这三种期刊的作者都是男性,但性别平衡有了显着改善,近年来接近平等。
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引用次数: 0
Disability and Education in Ghana: Intersections With Sex and Location 加纳的残疾和教育:性别和地理位置的交叉点
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1111/padr.70003
Nkechi S. Owoo
Disability is one of the least studied forms of vulnerability. Disability–education connections have often ignored important intersectionalities with sex and location. Using a 10 percent sample of the 2021 Ghana Population and Housing Census and an analytic sample of more than 2.2 million children and adults, this article, among other objectives, illustrates disability–education gaps by sex and location. There is an education gap of 4 percent for children with moderate disabilities and 12 percent for those with severe disabilities, compared to children without disabilities. Among adults, corresponding education gaps of 15 and 29 percent are present for moderate and severe disabilities, respectively. Regression results show that (1) the presence and severity of disability are associated with lower educational attainment; (2) the education “penalty” for girls and women as well as urban people with disabilities in Ghana is much higher than for their counterparts; (3) disability–education linkages also vary by specific disability conditions among children versus adults and by sex and location. Policy implications highlight the need to address consequential inequalities in poverty and welfare outcomes through targeted programs and interventions for women and other vulnerable people.
残疾是被研究最少的脆弱形式之一。残疾教育的联系往往忽略了性别和地域的重要交叉。本文利用2021年加纳人口和住房普查中10%的样本,以及对220多万儿童和成人的分析样本,说明了按性别和地点划分的残疾教育差距。与无残疾儿童相比,中度残疾儿童的教育差距为4%,重度残疾儿童的教育差距为12%。在成人中,中度残疾和重度残疾分别存在15%和29%的相应教育差距。回归结果表明:(1)残疾的存在和严重程度与受教育程度的降低有关;(2)加纳女童和妇女以及城市残疾人的教育“惩罚”远高于其同行;(3)残疾与教育的联系也因儿童与成人的特定残疾状况、性别和地点而异。政策影响突出表明,需要通过针对妇女和其他弱势群体的有针对性的规划和干预措施,解决由此产生的贫困和福利不平等问题。
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引用次数: 0
Trends and Decomposition of Changes in Mortality in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries, 1950–2019 1950-2019年低收入和中等收入国家死亡率变化趋势和分解
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1111/padr.70000
Marcia C. Castro, Cassio M. Turra, Jamie Ponmattam
From 1950 to 2019, all countries experienced an increase in life expectancy at birth. However, the magnitude and pace of change varied. Lower income countries experienced relatively larger increases, leading to a convergence process. Nevertheless, disparities remained pronounced in comparison to wealthier countries. In accordance with the health transition model, countries typically observe a decline in mortality rates by first achieving greater gains in young and adult ages. In this study, we build on the existing literature on health transition to demonstrate that by 2019, 55 percent of the 118 low‐ and middle‐income countries analyzed had reached a life expectancy at birth of at least 70 years. Notably, only two countries from sub‐Saharan Africa met this threshold. Additionally, 54 percent of the countries transitioned into the “cardiovascular revolution” stage, where improvements in adult mortality significantly increased life expectancy at birth. Meanwhile, 49 percent advanced to the “slowing the aging process” stage, characterized by greater gains in life expectancy from ages 65 and older than those aged 30–60. However, when applying a more restrictive criterion focused on ages above 80, this proportion drops to 19 percent. The results demonstrate an ongoing process of divergence–convergence between high‐ and low‐income countries and within middle‐ and low‐income groups.
从1950年到2019年,所有国家的出生时预期寿命都有所延长。然而,变化的幅度和速度各不相同。低收入国家经历了相对较大的增长,导致趋同过程。然而,与较富裕国家相比,差距仍然明显。根据健康过渡模式,各国通常会首先在青年和成年阶段取得更大的进展,从而观察到死亡率的下降。在本研究中,我们以现有的健康转型文献为基础,证明到2019年,在所分析的118个低收入和中等收入国家中,55%的国家在出生时预期寿命达到至少70岁。值得注意的是,撒哈拉以南非洲只有两个国家达到了这一门槛。此外,54%的国家进入了“心血管革命”阶段,成人死亡率的改善显著提高了出生时的预期寿命。与此同时,49%的人进入了“减缓衰老过程”阶段,其特点是65岁及以上的预期寿命比30-60岁的人延长得更快。然而,如果采用更严格的标准,以80岁以上的年龄为重点,这一比例降至19%。研究结果表明,高收入国家和低收入国家之间以及中低收入群体内部存在一个持续的分化-趋同过程。
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引用次数: 0
Editors’ Note on Looking Backward, Looking Forward: Celebrating 50 Years of Population and Development Review 回顾过去,展望未来:庆祝《人口与发展评论》出版50周年
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1111/padr.70002
Raya Muttarak, Joshua Wilde
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引用次数: 0
Population and Climate Change: Considering Climate Change Demography's Past and Future 人口与气候变化:考虑气候变化人口统计学的过去和未来
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12722
Kathryn Grace, Emily Klancher Merchant, Nicholas Nagle
This article explores the potential for the development of a climate change–informed demography. Climate change impacts society in some ways that demographers are best suited to evaluate, providing a setting for demographers to advance foundational theories of demographic change. By considering demography in the context of climate change and climate change in the context of demographic change, climate change demography has the potential to expand scientific and policy understanding of human vulnerability to climate change, while also advancing demographic science. To explore the development of climate change demography, we first reflect on demography's roots and consider how foundational demographic research has and has not considered the natural environment. Second, we describe the beginnings of research by demographers into connections between the natural environment and fertility, mortality, and health. Third, we explore current research at the intersection of climate change and demography, highlighting theory and policy successes and opportunities resulting from research on key issues related to maternal, reproductive, and child health and food insecurity. This research often reflects interdisciplinary engagement between the physical and social sciences, where demographic foundations underlie many of the approaches. Fourth, we consider how the rapidly evolving data landscape and increasing awareness of social and health inequalities in the context of climate change pave the way for more complex and dynamic modeling efforts (e.g., ecological and systems‐based research). In this final section, we also highlight the opportunities provided by framing demographic research within the context of climate change and using increasingly sophisticated data and methodological tools to expand on and revisit key demographic models like the demographic transition. Together, these sections build an overarching and linked climate change–demography–health research agenda rooted in awareness of the past and focused on the needs of the future.
本文探讨了发展了解气候变化的人口统计的潜力。气候变化对社会的影响在某些方面是人口统计学家最适合评估的,为人口统计学家提供了一个环境来推进人口变化的基础理论。通过考虑气候变化背景下的人口学和人口变化背景下的气候变化,气候变化人口学有可能扩大对人类对气候变化脆弱性的科学和政策理解,同时也促进人口科学的发展。为了探索气候变化人口学的发展,我们首先反思人口学的根源,并考虑基础人口研究如何考虑和没有考虑自然环境。其次,我们描述了人口统计学家开始研究自然环境与生育率、死亡率和健康之间的联系。第三,我们探讨了目前在气候变化和人口统计学交叉领域的研究,强调了与孕产妇、生殖和儿童健康以及粮食不安全相关的关键问题的研究所带来的理论和政策成功和机遇。这项研究通常反映了自然科学和社会科学之间的跨学科合作,其中人口统计学基础是许多方法的基础。第四,我们考虑了气候变化背景下快速发展的数据格局和对社会和健康不平等的日益增强的认识如何为更复杂和动态的建模工作(例如,基于生态和系统的研究)铺平道路。在最后一节中,我们还强调了在气候变化背景下构建人口研究以及使用日益复杂的数据和方法工具来扩展和重新审视人口转型等关键人口模型所提供的机会。这些部分共同构建了一个总体的、相互关联的气候变化-人口-健康研究议程,该议程植根于对过去的认识,并以未来的需求为重点。
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引用次数: 0
Reframing the Relationship Between Fertility and Education in Adolescence: 60 Years of Evidence From Latin America 重塑青少年生育与教育之间的关系:来自拉丁美洲60年的证据
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12720
Ann Garbett, Sarah Neal, Angela Luna Hernandez, Nikos Tzavidis
It is a demographic puzzle that Latin America and the Caribbean's high levels of adolescent fertility have persisted over the course of its dramatic fertility transitions and schooling expansions. These phenomena usually occur alongside postponements to entry into motherhood.To tackle the puzzle, this study untangles, in basic mechanical terms, how the region has maintained such high levels of adolescent fertility. It also delves into the broader theoretical underpinnings of the relationship between schooling and the timing of fertility, which it categorizes into enrollment (i.e. incarceration) and aspirational effects.The study uses 96 nationally representative demographic surveys from 15 countries in the region to produce cohort‐based estimates of the magnitude and timing of parity‐specific adolescent childbearing for school attainment profiles measured in single years. Changes in the likelihood of experiencing adolescent motherhood or having multiple births in adolescence for different schooling careers interlock with surprising findings regarding the timings of those births.The results strongly suggest that school enrollment's ability to forestall fertility appears as effective today as it was over half a century ago, while schooling's aspirational influence has been dramatically modified under changing context and reorganized social hierarchies.
拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的青少年高生育率在其巨大的生育率转变和教育扩张过程中一直保持着,这是一个人口统计学上的难题。这些现象通常伴随着推迟成为母亲而发生。为了解决这个难题,这项研究用基本的机械术语解开了该地区如何保持如此高的青少年生育率。它还深入研究了学校教育与生育时间之间关系的更广泛的理论基础,并将其分类为入学(即监禁)和期望效应。该研究使用了来自该地区15个国家的96项具有全国代表性的人口调查,以单年测量的学业成就概况为基础,对特定于胎次的青少年生育的规模和时间进行了基于队列的估计。在不同的学校生涯中,经历青春期母亲或在青春期多胞胎的可能性的变化与这些分娩时间的惊人发现相互关联。研究结果有力地表明,在半个多世纪前,学校入学阻止生育的能力在今天似乎和以前一样有效,而学校教育的抱负影响在不断变化的环境和重新组织的社会等级制度下已经发生了巨大的变化。
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引用次数: 0
Paul Demeny: An Appreciation 保罗-德梅尼赏析
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1111/padr.70005
Geoffrey McNicoll
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引用次数: 0
A New Research Agenda for Social Inequalities in Mortality: Challenges and Open Questions 死亡率社会不平等的新研究议程:挑战和悬而未决的问题
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-01-29 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12717
Isaac Sasson
Research on mortality inequalities has proliferated in demography in recent decades, documenting disparities between nations and within them across multiple social dimensions. Yet, this literature remains largely descriptive and atheoretical. In this paper, I identify three open questions in need of theoretical development. First, I identify a general shift from gender (and race) based mortality inequalities to class‐based inequalities across low‐mortality countries. I argue that this shift may be better understood by focusing on the structural determinants of population health, in addition to explanations grounded in individual behavior and risk factors. Second, a growing body of literature has called for moving beyond group differences in life expectancy and adopting the concept of lifespan inequality. However, the drivers of lifespan inequality are not well understood. I argue that a comprehensive framework is needed for clarifying the interplay of nature, nurture, and chance in shaping variability in individual lifespans. Third, I draw attention to the causal role that mortality inequalities may play in driving social change. I argue that differential exposure to death in one's network of social relations may give rise to different modes of thinking, feeling, and acting, and in turn lead to group differences in preferences, actions, and outcomes.
近几十年来,人口统计学中关于死亡率不平等的研究激增,记录了国家之间以及国家内部在多个社会层面上的差异。然而,这些文献在很大程度上仍然是描述性和理论性的。在本文中,我指出了三个有待理论发展的开放性问题。首先,我发现在低死亡率国家中,基于性别(和种族)的死亡率不平等普遍转变为基于阶级的死亡率不平等。我认为,除了以个人行为和风险因素为基础的解释外,关注人口健康的结构性决定因素可能会更好地理解这种转变。其次,越来越多的文献呼吁超越预期寿命的群体差异,采用寿命不平等的概念。然而,寿命不平等的驱动因素还没有得到很好的理解。我认为需要一个全面的框架来阐明自然、教养和机遇在形成个体寿命变化中的相互作用。第三,我提请注意死亡率不平等在推动社会变革方面可能发挥的因果作用。我认为,在一个人的社会关系网络中,对死亡的不同接触可能会产生不同的思维、感觉和行为模式,进而导致群体在偏好、行动和结果上的差异。
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引用次数: 0
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Population and Development Review
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