Stock estimates of the US unauthorized foreign‐born population are routinely published, but less is known about this population's dynamics. Using a series of residual estimates based on 2000 Census and 2001–2022 American Community Survey (ACS), I estimate the components of change for the unauthorized immigrant population from 2000 to 2022 by region and country of origin. Further, I develop and present novel measures of expected duration in unauthorized status and demographic impact of unauthorized entries (i.e., person‐years lived in unauthorized status). Results reveal dramatic changes over the last two decades. In the early 2000s, the unauthorized immigrant population was dominated by Mexicans who tended to remain in the United States for extended periods of time and whose demographic impact on the US population was substantial. After the 2007–2008 Great Recession, a new pattern emerged. Unauthorized migrants now arrive from across the globe, including Central America and Asia (up through 2018), and most recently from Europe, Africa, Canada, Venezuela, and other parts of South America. These new unauthorized immigrants are more likely to arrive on temporary nonimmigrant visas (which typically allow a foreigner to live and work in the United States for six years) and, with the exception of Venezuelans, spend less time in unauthorized status. Overall, the demographic impact of this new type of unauthorized migration is lower than it was two decades ago.
{"title":"Beyond Stocks and Surges: The Demographic Impact of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in the United States","authors":"Jennifer Van Hook","doi":"10.1111/padr.12683","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12683","url":null,"abstract":"Stock estimates of the US unauthorized foreign‐born population are routinely published, but less is known about this population's dynamics. Using a series of residual estimates based on 2000 Census and 2001–2022 American Community Survey (ACS), I estimate the components of change for the unauthorized immigrant population from 2000 to 2022 by region and country of origin. Further, I develop and present novel measures of expected duration in unauthorized status and demographic impact of unauthorized entries (i.e., person‐years lived in unauthorized status). Results reveal dramatic changes over the last two decades. In the early 2000s, the unauthorized immigrant population was dominated by Mexicans who tended to remain in the United States for extended periods of time and whose demographic impact on the US population was substantial. After the 2007–2008 Great Recession, a new pattern emerged. Unauthorized migrants now arrive from across the globe, including Central America and Asia (up through 2018), and most recently from Europe, Africa, Canada, Venezuela, and other parts of South America. These new unauthorized immigrants are more likely to arrive on temporary nonimmigrant visas (which typically allow a foreigner to live and work in the United States for six years) and, with the exception of Venezuelans, spend less time in unauthorized status. Overall, the demographic impact of this new type of unauthorized migration is lower than it was two decades ago.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142541145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rachel Margolis, Mara Getz Sheftel, Haowei Wang, Raeven Faye Chandler, Lauren Newmyer, Ashton M. Verdery
Family networks are key to understanding the well‐being of older adults because kin provide instrumental and financial support, help manage health and disability, and encourage social integration. Two momentous societal changes have shaped the families of contemporary older adults: the first and second demographic transitions and global educational expansion. The intersection of these two processes raises questions about how older adults are faring in terms of their kin availability. This paper examines the socioeconomic bifurcation of adults in midlife and beyond in terms of the existence of descendants and other kin. Disparities in kin availability may vary across socioeconomic status and contexts, and so we examine this phenomenon worldwide, analyzing data on two thirds of the world's population of adults aged 50 and above. Our results highlight different kin structures by socioeconomic status. High socioeconomic status adults have fewer descendants but a higher likelihood of having at least one child with tertiary education, a partner, and living parents. Low socioeconomic status older adults have larger families with more younger kin. Our results shed new light on potential mismatches between the contemporary family networks of older adults and longstanding social norms and assumptions about caregiving, family, and health policies.
{"title":"Older Adults’ Descendants and Family Networks in the Context of Global Educational Expansion","authors":"Rachel Margolis, Mara Getz Sheftel, Haowei Wang, Raeven Faye Chandler, Lauren Newmyer, Ashton M. Verdery","doi":"10.1111/padr.12681","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12681","url":null,"abstract":"Family networks are key to understanding the well‐being of older adults because kin provide instrumental and financial support, help manage health and disability, and encourage social integration. Two momentous societal changes have shaped the families of contemporary older adults: the first and second demographic transitions and global educational expansion. The intersection of these two processes raises questions about how older adults are faring in terms of their kin availability. This paper examines the socioeconomic bifurcation of adults in midlife and beyond in terms of the existence of descendants and other kin. Disparities in kin availability may vary across socioeconomic status and contexts, and so we examine this phenomenon worldwide, analyzing data on two thirds of the world's population of adults aged 50 and above. Our results highlight different kin structures by socioeconomic status. High socioeconomic status adults have fewer descendants but a higher likelihood of having at least one child with tertiary education, a partner, and living parents. Low socioeconomic status older adults have larger families with more younger kin. Our results shed new light on potential mismatches between the contemporary family networks of older adults and longstanding social norms and assumptions about caregiving, family, and health policies.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142536450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Athina Anastasiadou, Jisu Kim, Ebru Sanlitürk, Helga A. G. de Valk, Emilio Zagheni
Migration scholars agree that migration is a highly gendered process. While the literature on this topic is increasing, the knowledge produced remains fragmentary and has not been synthesized systematically yet. This literature review aims at summarizing the current findings of quantitative migration research comparing migration patterns between genders and highlighting gaps and patterns in the literature over time. Following a reproducible and systematic approach, 6032 articles have been scanned and 170 were considered for in‐depth content analysis. The review of the literature revealed that women have a lower propensity than men to realize their migration aspirations conditional on migration intentions. Moreover, many articles analyzing migration flows by gender do not support the common narrative of a feminization of migration. Finally, evidence from the migration literature supports the assumption that migrant women experience a double burden of discrimination in the destination country labor market based on their gender and their migration status. It becomes apparent that gender‐based comparisons between migration outcomes have received the most attention in the literature followed by the comparison of determinants. The stage of the journey received only little attention. This literature review also focuses on the data sources used to produce our knowledge on gender differences in the migration process. Thereby, it stands out that the majority of papers rely on survey data for the analysis. Digital trace data are a promising source for gender‐disaggregated data and can potentially complement the scarce aggregate migration data landscape.
{"title":"Gender Differences in the Migration Process: A Narrative Literature Review","authors":"Athina Anastasiadou, Jisu Kim, Ebru Sanlitürk, Helga A. G. de Valk, Emilio Zagheni","doi":"10.1111/padr.12677","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12677","url":null,"abstract":"Migration scholars agree that migration is a highly gendered process. While the literature on this topic is increasing, the knowledge produced remains fragmentary and has not been synthesized systematically yet. This literature review aims at summarizing the current findings of quantitative migration research comparing migration patterns between genders and highlighting gaps and patterns in the literature over time. Following a reproducible and systematic approach, 6032 articles have been scanned and 170 were considered for in‐depth content analysis. The review of the literature revealed that women have a lower propensity than men to realize their migration aspirations conditional on migration intentions. Moreover, many articles analyzing migration flows by gender do not support the common narrative of a feminization of migration. Finally, evidence from the migration literature supports the assumption that migrant women experience a double burden of discrimination in the destination country labor market based on their gender and their migration status. It becomes apparent that gender‐based comparisons between migration outcomes have received the most attention in the literature followed by the comparison of determinants. The stage of the journey received only little attention. This literature review also focuses on the data sources used to produce our knowledge on gender differences in the migration process. Thereby, it stands out that the majority of papers rely on survey data for the analysis. Digital trace data are a promising source for gender‐disaggregated data and can potentially complement the scarce aggregate migration data landscape.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142415575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Past research suggests that the expansion of women's education reduces their exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV) due to attitudinal changes and women's greater access to resources. The IPV literature also suggests that educational hypogamy (women marrying men with less education) increases IPV as women face backlash associated with gender‐status inconsistencies. However, existing research has not effectively tested the link between educational hypogamy and IPV. In this study, I provide a direct and explicit test of this backlash hypothesis using nationally representative National Family Health Survey data from India, a country characterized by high levels of IPV and gender inequality but rising levels of educational hypogamy. Using an interactive specification between wife's and husband's education, I do not find evidence for a positive association between educational hypogamy and IPV. Women's education is associated with reduced IPV, even in some instances when it exceeds the husband's education. Further analyses suggest that educational hypogamy by itself does not raise IPV risk in India because increased education does not necessarily grant Indian women greater access to other resources such as employment and income. Rather, education likely shapes IPV by precipitating attitudinal changes that lead to IPV rejection. This study contributes to theories of the family, gender, and violence and presents findings that contradict much of the literature on educational hypogamy and IPV in the Global South.
{"title":"Reconsidering the Relationship Between Educational Hypogamy and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from India","authors":"Roshan K. Pandian","doi":"10.1111/padr.12679","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12679","url":null,"abstract":"Past research suggests that the expansion of women's education reduces their exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV) due to attitudinal changes and women's greater access to resources. The IPV literature also suggests that educational hypogamy (women marrying men with less education) increases IPV as women face backlash associated with gender‐status inconsistencies. However, existing research has not effectively tested the link between educational hypogamy and IPV. In this study, I provide a direct and explicit test of this backlash hypothesis using nationally representative National Family Health Survey data from India, a country characterized by high levels of IPV and gender inequality but rising levels of educational hypogamy. Using an interactive specification between wife's and husband's education, I do not find evidence for a positive association between educational hypogamy and IPV. Women's education is associated with reduced IPV, even in some instances when it exceeds the husband's education. Further analyses suggest that educational hypogamy by itself does not raise IPV risk in India because increased education does not necessarily grant Indian women greater access to other resources such as employment and income. Rather, education likely shapes IPV by precipitating attitudinal changes that lead to IPV rejection. This study contributes to theories of the family, gender, and violence and presents findings that contradict much of the literature on educational hypogamy and IPV in the Global South.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142405167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Deepshikha Batheja, Abhik Banerji, Amit Summan, Ramanan Laxminarayan, Arindam Nandi
A rich literature has documented the relationship between age at marriage and girls’ health and educational outcomes. The upheaval caused by the pandemic on household decision‐making has been hypothesized to have influenced the age of marriage, but the direction of impact is unclear. On the one hand, the pandemic may have increased the age at marriage if lockdown policies and negative income shocks to families placed a burden on household wealth and the ability to pay for weddings. On the other hand, the age of marriage could have decreased during the pandemic due to school closures that kept girls out of school, parental deaths that encouraged families to expedite weddings, and lower wedding costs because of government mandates to have smaller weddings. Using data from the National Family Health Survey of 2019–2021 of India, we explore how the pandemic impacted age at marriage for women using district and household fixed effects models. After accounting for secular trends in the age of marriage and contingent on the model and specification, we find a significant increase in age at marriage for women who got married during the pandemic by 1.1–1.2 years as compared with those married before the pandemic.
{"title":"COVID‐19 Pandemic and Women's Age at Marriage: New Evidence From India","authors":"Deepshikha Batheja, Abhik Banerji, Amit Summan, Ramanan Laxminarayan, Arindam Nandi","doi":"10.1111/padr.12680","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12680","url":null,"abstract":"A rich literature has documented the relationship between age at marriage and girls’ health and educational outcomes. The upheaval caused by the pandemic on household decision‐making has been hypothesized to have influenced the age of marriage, but the direction of impact is unclear. On the one hand, the pandemic may have increased the age at marriage if lockdown policies and negative income shocks to families placed a burden on household wealth and the ability to pay for weddings. On the other hand, the age of marriage could have decreased during the pandemic due to school closures that kept girls out of school, parental deaths that encouraged families to expedite weddings, and lower wedding costs because of government mandates to have smaller weddings. Using data from the National Family Health Survey of 2019–2021 of India, we explore how the pandemic impacted age at marriage for women using district and household fixed effects models. After accounting for secular trends in the age of marriage and contingent on the model and specification, we find a significant increase in age at marriage for women who got married during the pandemic by 1.1–1.2 years as compared with those married before the pandemic.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"78 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142397994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fertility desires are fundamental to understanding contraceptive use, yet the relationship between the two remains unclear and is the subject of much debate in demography. To understand the macrolevel relationship between fertility desires and contraceptive transition in low‐ and middle‐income countries, we introduce a conceptual model that articulates the microlevel processes through which a desire to avoid childbearing translates into contraceptive use and reasons for their frequent misalignment. The model calls for a more nuanced understanding of fertility desires, differentiates between the acceptability and accessibility of contraception, and highlights the multilevel forces that shape the costs of fertility regulation. These microlevel processes are key to understanding the evolving role of changes in fertility desires and changes in the implementation of desires on contraceptive transition across time and space. We conclude these relationships are additive, multiplicative, and dynamic over time.
{"title":"Fertility Desires and Contraceptive Transition","authors":"Sara Yeatman, Christie Sennott","doi":"10.1111/padr.12669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12669","url":null,"abstract":"Fertility desires are fundamental to understanding contraceptive use, yet the relationship between the two remains unclear and is the subject of much debate in demography. To understand the macrolevel relationship between fertility desires and contraceptive transition in low‐ and middle‐income countries, we introduce a conceptual model that articulates the microlevel processes through which a desire to avoid childbearing translates into contraceptive use and reasons for their frequent misalignment. The model calls for a more nuanced understanding of fertility desires, differentiates between the acceptability and accessibility of contraception, and highlights the multilevel forces that shape the costs of fertility regulation. These microlevel processes are key to understanding the evolving role of changes in fertility desires and changes in the implementation of desires on contraceptive transition across time and space. We conclude these relationships are additive, multiplicative, and dynamic over time.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142384374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this commentary—written to celebrate, but also evaluate, the relationship between anthropology and demography at the 50th anniversary of the journal—I focus on the insights gained and the challenges posed by applying anthropological theory and utilizing ethnographic methods in population studies. Population and Development Review has been the venue of choice for many anthropologists because it has consistently recognized and welcomed the contributions of ethnographic research. Further, the journal has provided a forum for critical engagement between anthropology and demography, publishing research findings that illustrate the benefits of this engagement as well as commentaries that acknowledge, examine, and assess the sometimes‐difficult relationship between the two disciplines. To showcase the possibilities anthropology offers for understanding puzzles central to demographic inquiry, I draw special attention to research and scholarship focused on Africa's fertility transition.
{"title":"Reflections on the Value of Anthropology for Understanding Population Processes","authors":"Daniel Jordan Smith","doi":"10.1111/padr.12672","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12672","url":null,"abstract":"In this commentary—written to celebrate, but also evaluate, the relationship between anthropology and demography at the 50th anniversary of the journal—I focus on the insights gained and the challenges posed by applying anthropological theory and utilizing ethnographic methods in population studies. <jats:italic>Population and Development Review</jats:italic> has been the venue of choice for many anthropologists because it has consistently recognized and welcomed the contributions of ethnographic research. Further, the journal has provided a forum for critical engagement between anthropology and demography, publishing research findings that illustrate the benefits of this engagement as well as commentaries that acknowledge, examine, and assess the sometimes‐difficult relationship between the two disciplines. To showcase the possibilities anthropology offers for understanding puzzles central to demographic inquiry, I draw special attention to research and scholarship focused on Africa's fertility transition.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"224 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142383930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Since the mid‐twentieth century, the Global South has experienced unprecedently rapid and pervasive changes in reproductive behavior with fertility declining from high pre‐transitional levels to below 3 births per woman in most low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs). Over time a rough consensus has been reached on major theories about the causes of these declines. However, a controversy remains about the widely held view that changing reproductive preferences (i.e., declining desired family size and rising demand for birth limitation) are the dominant drivers of fertility transitions. Several studies question this conclusion and suggest instead that the rising implementation of existing demand is the main cause of the reproductive revolution in LMICs. The objective of this study is to reconcile the competing “demand” and “implementation” perspectives. This paper assesses the strengths and weaknesses of published decompositions which take trends in the observed total fertility and contraceptive prevalence and break them down into their respective demand and implementation components. The main conclusion from this exercise is that fertility transitions are driven by changes in both preferences and their implementation. Claims of a completely dominant role for either demand or implementation are based on flawed methods and hence must be rejected.
{"title":"Fertility Transitions in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries: The Role of Preferences","authors":"John Bongaarts","doi":"10.1111/padr.12675","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12675","url":null,"abstract":"Since the mid‐twentieth century, the Global South has experienced unprecedently rapid and pervasive changes in reproductive behavior with fertility declining from high pre‐transitional levels to below 3 births per woman in most low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs). Over time a rough consensus has been reached on major theories about the causes of these declines. However, a controversy remains about the widely held view that changing reproductive preferences (i.e., declining desired family size and rising demand for birth limitation) are the dominant drivers of fertility transitions. Several studies question this conclusion and suggest instead that the rising implementation of existing demand is the main cause of the reproductive revolution in LMICs. The objective of this study is to reconcile the competing “demand” and “implementation” perspectives. This paper assesses the strengths and weaknesses of published decompositions which take trends in the observed total fertility and contraceptive prevalence and break them down into their respective demand and implementation components. The main conclusion from this exercise is that fertility transitions are driven by changes in both preferences and their implementation. Claims of a completely dominant role for either demand or implementation are based on flawed methods and hence must be rejected.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142384034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The long human lifespan enables long run forecasts of population size and age distribution. New methods include biodemographic research on upper limits to life expectancy and incorporation of early experiences affecting later life mortality such as smoking, obesity, and childhood health shocks. Some fertility forecasts incorporate education and quantum‐tempo insights. Statistical time series and Bayesian methods generate probabilistic forecasts. Yet recent decades have brought surprising changes in the economy, natural environment, and vital rates. In these changing circumstances we need new methods and the increasing use of probabilistic models and Bayesian methods incorporating outside information. The increasing use of microsimulation combined with aggregate forecasting methods is a very promising development enabling more detailed and heterogeneous forecasts. Some new uses of stochastic forecasts are interesting in themselves. Probabilistic mortality forecasts are used in finance and insurance, and a new Longevity Swap industry has been built on them. Random sample paths used to generate stochastic population forecasts can stress‐test public pension designs for fiscal stability and intergenerational equity. Population forecasting a few decades ago was a dull backwater of demographic research, but now it is increasingly important and is full of intellectual and technical challenges.
{"title":"Forecasting Population in an Uncertain World: Approaches, New Uses, and Troubling Limitations","authors":"Ronald Lee","doi":"10.1111/padr.12674","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12674","url":null,"abstract":"The long human lifespan enables long run forecasts of population size and age distribution. New methods include biodemographic research on upper limits to life expectancy and incorporation of early experiences affecting later life mortality such as smoking, obesity, and childhood health shocks. Some fertility forecasts incorporate education and quantum‐tempo insights. Statistical time series and Bayesian methods generate probabilistic forecasts. Yet recent decades have brought surprising changes in the economy, natural environment, and vital rates. In these changing circumstances we need new methods and the increasing use of probabilistic models and Bayesian methods incorporating outside information. The increasing use of microsimulation combined with aggregate forecasting methods is a very promising development enabling more detailed and heterogeneous forecasts. Some new uses of stochastic forecasts are interesting in themselves. Probabilistic mortality forecasts are used in finance and insurance, and a new Longevity Swap industry has been built on them. Random sample paths used to generate stochastic population forecasts can stress‐test public pension designs for fiscal stability and intergenerational equity. Population forecasting a few decades ago was a dull backwater of demographic research, but now it is increasingly important and is full of intellectual and technical challenges.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142384031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Human development and family planning programs since the 1970s have led to a fast‐rising prevalence of modern contraceptive means at the global level. However, countries with rising but still low levels of contraceptive use experienced an increasing number of societal upheavals, including armed conflicts, sudden and high‐intensity natural disasters, as well as dramatic effects of health epidemics. This may challenge the continued diffusion of modern means of birth regulation as well as their adherent use. To better understand the role of societal upheavals in the contraceptive transition, we provide a narrative literature review of their multidimensional pathways of influence in the contraceptive decision‐making process. The review suggests four main findings. First, well‐known contemporary barriers to contraceptive use become more salient during societal upheavals. Second, historical barriers reemerge predominantly. Third, societal upheavals exert specific effects on the contraceptive transition, such as through birth replacement, the repopulation of communities, and the sexual vulnerability of girls and young women. Fourth, there are more pathways leading to a reduced (rather than a heightened) contraceptive prevalence. The conclusion discusses the implications of those insights for the contraceptive transition, provides a critical perspective of the literature, and draws avenues for future research.
{"title":"Societal Upheaval and the Contraceptive Transition","authors":"Mathias Lerch","doi":"10.1111/padr.12663","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12663","url":null,"abstract":"Human development and family planning programs since the 1970s have led to a fast‐rising prevalence of modern contraceptive means at the global level. However, countries with rising but still low levels of contraceptive use experienced an increasing number of societal upheavals, including armed conflicts, sudden and high‐intensity natural disasters, as well as dramatic effects of health epidemics. This may challenge the continued diffusion of modern means of birth regulation as well as their adherent use. To better understand the role of societal upheavals in the contraceptive transition, we provide a narrative literature review of their multidimensional pathways of influence in the contraceptive decision‐making process. The review suggests four main findings. First, well‐known contemporary barriers to contraceptive use become more salient during societal upheavals. Second, historical barriers reemerge predominantly. Third, societal upheavals exert specific effects on the contraceptive transition, such as through birth replacement, the repopulation of communities, and the sexual vulnerability of girls and young women. Fourth, there are more pathways leading to a reduced (rather than a heightened) contraceptive prevalence. The conclusion discusses the implications of those insights for the contraceptive transition, provides a critical perspective of the literature, and draws avenues for future research.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142383931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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