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COVID‐19 Pandemic and Women's Age at Marriage: New Evidence From India COVID-19 大流行病与妇女的结婚年龄:印度的新证据
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12680
Deepshikha Batheja, Abhik Banerji, Amit Summan, Ramanan Laxminarayan, Arindam Nandi
A rich literature has documented the relationship between age at marriage and girls’ health and educational outcomes. The upheaval caused by the pandemic on household decision‐making has been hypothesized to have influenced the age of marriage, but the direction of impact is unclear. On the one hand, the pandemic may have increased the age at marriage if lockdown policies and negative income shocks to families placed a burden on household wealth and the ability to pay for weddings. On the other hand, the age of marriage could have decreased during the pandemic due to school closures that kept girls out of school, parental deaths that encouraged families to expedite weddings, and lower wedding costs because of government mandates to have smaller weddings. Using data from the National Family Health Survey of 2019–2021 of India, we explore how the pandemic impacted age at marriage for women using district and household fixed effects models. After accounting for secular trends in the age of marriage and contingent on the model and specification, we find a significant increase in age at marriage for women who got married during the pandemic by 1.1–1.2 years as compared with those married before the pandemic.
大量文献记载了结婚年龄与女孩健康和教育成果之间的关系。据推测,大流行病对家庭决策造成的动荡影响了结婚年龄,但影响的方向并不明确。一方面,如果封锁政策和对家庭收入的负面冲击对家庭财富和支付婚礼的能力造成负担,那么大流行病可能会提高结婚年龄。另一方面,在大流行期间,由于学校关闭导致女孩失学,父母死亡鼓励家庭加快婚礼进程,以及政府规定婚礼规模较小导致婚礼成本降低,结婚年龄可能会降低。利用印度 2019-2021 年全国家庭健康调查的数据,我们使用地区和家庭固定效应模型探讨了大流行对女性结婚年龄的影响。在考虑了结婚年龄的世俗趋势后,根据模型和规格的不同,我们发现在大流行期间结婚的女性的结婚年龄比大流行前结婚的女性显著提高了 1.1-1.2 岁。
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引用次数: 0
Fertility Desires and Contraceptive Transition 生育愿望与避孕过渡
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12669
Sara Yeatman, Christie Sennott
Fertility desires are fundamental to understanding contraceptive use, yet the relationship between the two remains unclear and is the subject of much debate in demography. To understand the macrolevel relationship between fertility desires and contraceptive transition in low‐ and middle‐income countries, we introduce a conceptual model that articulates the microlevel processes through which a desire to avoid childbearing translates into contraceptive use and reasons for their frequent misalignment. The model calls for a more nuanced understanding of fertility desires, differentiates between the acceptability and accessibility of contraception, and highlights the multilevel forces that shape the costs of fertility regulation. These microlevel processes are key to understanding the evolving role of changes in fertility desires and changes in the implementation of desires on contraceptive transition across time and space. We conclude these relationships are additive, multiplicative, and dynamic over time.
生育意愿是了解避孕药具使用情况的基础,但两者之间的关系仍不明确,也是人口学中争论不休的话题。为了理解中低收入国家生育意愿与避孕药具过渡之间的宏观关系,我们引入了一个概念模型,阐明了避免生育的意愿转化为使用避孕药具的微观过程,以及两者经常出现错位的原因。该模型要求对生育意愿有更细致的理解,区分避孕药具的可接受性和可获得性,并强调形成生育调节成本的多层次力量。这些微观层面的过程是理解生育意愿的变化和意愿的实施对避孕过渡的作用在时间和空间上不断演变的关键。我们的结论是,这些关系是相加、相乘的,并且随着时间的推移而动态变化。
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引用次数: 0
Reflections on the Value of Anthropology for Understanding Population Processes 人类学对理解人口进程价值的思考
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12672
Daniel Jordan Smith
In this commentary—written to celebrate, but also evaluate, the relationship between anthropology and demography at the 50th anniversary of the journal—I focus on the insights gained and the challenges posed by applying anthropological theory and utilizing ethnographic methods in population studies. Population and Development Review has been the venue of choice for many anthropologists because it has consistently recognized and welcomed the contributions of ethnographic research. Further, the journal has provided a forum for critical engagement between anthropology and demography, publishing research findings that illustrate the benefits of this engagement as well as commentaries that acknowledge, examine, and assess the sometimes‐difficult relationship between the two disciplines. To showcase the possibilities anthropology offers for understanding puzzles central to demographic inquiry, I draw special attention to research and scholarship focused on Africa's fertility transition.
在这篇评论中,我重点论述了在人口研究中应用人类学理论和使用人种学方法所获得的启示和面临的挑战,这篇评论既是为了庆祝《人口与发展评论》创刊 50 周年,同时也是为了评估人类学与人口学之间的关系。人口与发展评论》一直是许多人类学家的首选刊物,因为它始终认可并欢迎人种学研究的贡献。此外,该期刊还为人类学和人口学之间的批判性接触提供了一个论坛,发表的研究成果说明了这种接触的益处,发表的评论文章则承认、审视和评估了这两个学科之间有时会出现的困难关系。为了展示人类学为理解人口调查的核心难题所提供的可能性,我提请大家特别关注有关非洲生育率转型的研究和学术成果。
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引用次数: 0
Fertility Transitions in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries: The Role of Preferences 中低收入国家的生育率转变:偏好的作用
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12675
John Bongaarts
Since the mid‐twentieth century, the Global South has experienced unprecedently rapid and pervasive changes in reproductive behavior with fertility declining from high pre‐transitional levels to below 3 births per woman in most low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs). Over time a rough consensus has been reached on major theories about the causes of these declines. However, a controversy remains about the widely held view that changing reproductive preferences (i.e., declining desired family size and rising demand for birth limitation) are the dominant drivers of fertility transitions. Several studies question this conclusion and suggest instead that the rising implementation of existing demand is the main cause of the reproductive revolution in LMICs. The objective of this study is to reconcile the competing “demand” and “implementation” perspectives. This paper assesses the strengths and weaknesses of published decompositions which take trends in the observed total fertility and contraceptive prevalence and break them down into their respective demand and implementation components. The main conclusion from this exercise is that fertility transitions are driven by changes in both preferences and their implementation. Claims of a completely dominant role for either demand or implementation are based on flawed methods and hence must be rejected.
自二十世纪中叶以来,全球南部地区的生育行为发生了前所未有的迅速而普遍的变化,生育率从过渡前的高水平下降到大多数中低收入国家(LMICs)每名妇女的生育率低于 3。随着时间的推移,关于这些下降原因的主要理论已达成大致共识。然而,人们普遍认为,生育偏好的变化(即理想家庭规模的下降和对生育限制需求的上升)是生育率转型的主要驱动因素,但这一观点仍存在争议。有几项研究对这一结论提出了质疑,并认为现有需求的增加是低收入和中等收入国家生育革命的主要原因。本研究的目的是调和相互竞争的 "需求 "和 "实施 "观点。本文评估了已发表的分解法的优缺点,这些分解法将观察到的总生育率和避孕普及率趋势分解为各自的需求和实施部分。这项工作的主要结论是,生育率的转变是由偏好及其实施的变化所驱动的。关于需求或实施完全起主导作用的说法是基于有缺陷的方法,因此必须予以否定。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting Population in an Uncertain World: Approaches, New Uses, and Troubling Limitations 不确定世界中的人口预测:方法、新用途和令人担忧的局限性
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12674
Ronald Lee
The long human lifespan enables long run forecasts of population size and age distribution. New methods include biodemographic research on upper limits to life expectancy and incorporation of early experiences affecting later life mortality such as smoking, obesity, and childhood health shocks. Some fertility forecasts incorporate education and quantum‐tempo insights. Statistical time series and Bayesian methods generate probabilistic forecasts. Yet recent decades have brought surprising changes in the economy, natural environment, and vital rates. In these changing circumstances we need new methods and the increasing use of probabilistic models and Bayesian methods incorporating outside information. The increasing use of microsimulation combined with aggregate forecasting methods is a very promising development enabling more detailed and heterogeneous forecasts. Some new uses of stochastic forecasts are interesting in themselves. Probabilistic mortality forecasts are used in finance and insurance, and a new Longevity Swap industry has been built on them. Random sample paths used to generate stochastic population forecasts can stress‐test public pension designs for fiscal stability and intergenerational equity. Population forecasting a few decades ago was a dull backwater of demographic research, but now it is increasingly important and is full of intellectual and technical challenges.
人类寿命长,因此可以对人口规模和年龄分布进行长期预测。新方法包括对预期寿命上限的生物人口学研究,以及纳入影响晚年死亡率的早期经历,如吸烟、肥胖和童年健康冲击。一些生育率预测纳入了教育和量子节奏的见解。统计时间序列和贝叶斯方法产生了概率预测。然而,近几十年来,经济、自然环境和生命率都发生了惊人的变化。在这些不断变化的情况下,我们需要新的方法,需要越来越多地使用概率模型和贝叶斯方法,并将外部信息纳入其中。越来越多地使用微观模拟与综合预测方法相结合,是一个非常有前途的发展,可以进行更详细和异质性的预测。随机预测的一些新用途本身就很有趣。概率死亡率预测被用于金融和保险业,一个新的长寿互换行业就是在此基础上建立起来的。用于生成随机人口预测的随机样本路径可以对公共养老金设计进行压力测试,以确保财政稳定和代际公平。几十年前,人口预测还只是人口研究中的一个枯燥乏味的小领域,但现在它的重要性与日俱增,而且充满了知识和技术挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Societal Upheaval and the Contraceptive Transition 社会动荡与避孕过渡
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12663
Mathias Lerch
Human development and family planning programs since the 1970s have led to a fast‐rising prevalence of modern contraceptive means at the global level. However, countries with rising but still low levels of contraceptive use experienced an increasing number of societal upheavals, including armed conflicts, sudden and high‐intensity natural disasters, as well as dramatic effects of health epidemics. This may challenge the continued diffusion of modern means of birth regulation as well as their adherent use. To better understand the role of societal upheavals in the contraceptive transition, we provide a narrative literature review of their multidimensional pathways of influence in the contraceptive decision‐making process. The review suggests four main findings. First, well‐known contemporary barriers to contraceptive use become more salient during societal upheavals. Second, historical barriers reemerge predominantly. Third, societal upheavals exert specific effects on the contraceptive transition, such as through birth replacement, the repopulation of communities, and the sexual vulnerability of girls and young women. Fourth, there are more pathways leading to a reduced (rather than a heightened) contraceptive prevalence. The conclusion discusses the implications of those insights for the contraceptive transition, provides a critical perspective of the literature, and draws avenues for future research.
自 20 世纪 70 年代以来,人类发展和计划生育计划使得现代避孕手段在全球范围内迅速普及。然而,避孕药具使用率不断上升但仍然较低的国家却经历了越来越多的社会动荡,包括武装冲突、突发性高强度自然灾害以及流行病的严重影响。这可能会对现代生育调节手段的持续推广及其坚持使用构成挑战。为了更好地理解社会动荡在避孕过渡中的作用,我们对社会动荡在避孕决策过程中的多维影响途径进行了叙述性文献综述。综述提出了四个主要发现。首先,众所周知的当代避孕障碍在社会动荡期间变得更加突出。其次,历史性障碍再次成为主要障碍。第三,社会动荡对避孕过渡产生了特定影响,例如通过生育替代、社区人口重新增加以及女孩和年轻妇女的性脆弱性。第四,导致避孕普及率降低(而不是提高)的途径较多。结论讨论了这些见解对避孕过渡的影响,对文献提出了批判性的观点,并为今后的研究提出了途径。
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引用次数: 0
Alignment, Anticipation, Adaptation, or Lagging Behind? Age‐Based Regulations in Assisted Reproduction and Late Fertility 调整、预测、适应还是落后?辅助生殖和晚育中基于年龄的规定
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12658
Marie‐Caroline Compans
This paper focuses on age restrictions on access to infertility treatments and eligibility for their public reimbursement, exploring their relevancy in contexts of rising late birth rates (40+). I explore how age‐based reimbursement policies for in vitro fertilization treatments have responded to these fertility trends in 27 high‐income countries and in which regulatory frameworks for medically assisted reproduction (MAR) very late births (45+) have particularly increased. First, I show that while age limits for treatment reimbursement are well aligned with the prevalence of late fertility in some national contexts, in most countries, strict age restrictions are lagging behind the rise in late births. In others, pronatalist policies have prompted permissive age criteria or law revisions, anticipating or adapting to rising trends in late births. Second, the rise in very late births has been limited in some contexts with strict age‐based rules. However, the analysis suggests that the impact of MAR on very late births may also be influenced by contextual factors other than regulations.
本文重点关注不孕不育治疗的年龄限制及其公共报销资格,探讨其在晚育率(40 岁以上)上升背景下的相关性。我探讨了在 27 个高收入国家中,基于年龄的体外受精治疗报销政策是如何应对这些生育趋势的,在这些国家中,医疗辅助生殖(MAR)晚育(45 岁以上)的监管框架尤其增多。首先,我的研究表明,虽然在某些国家,治疗报销的年龄限制与晚育的发生率非常一致,但在大多数国家,严格的年龄限制落后于晚育的增加。在另一些国家,由于预期到或适应了晚育的上升趋势,代孕政策促使了宽松的年龄标准或法律修订。其次,在一些有严格年龄规定的情况下,超晚生育的增加受到了限制。然而,分析表明,除法规外,最低年龄标准对超晚生育的影响还可能受到其他环境因素的影响。
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引用次数: 0
New Data Sources for Demographic Research 人口研究的新数据源
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12671
Casey F. Breen, Dennis M. Feehan
We are in the early stages of a new era of demographic research that offers exciting opportunities to quantify demographic phenomena at a scale and resolution once unimaginable. These scientific possibilities are opened up by new sources of data, such as the digital traces that arise from ubiquitous social computing, massive longitudinal datasets produced by the digitization of historical records, and information about previously inaccessible populations reached through innovations in classic modes of data collection. In this commentary, we describe five promising new sources of demographic data and their potential appeal. We identify cross‐cutting challenges shared by these new data sources and argue that realizing their full potential will demand both innovative methodological developments and continued investment in high‐quality, traditional surveys and censuses. Despite these considerable challenges, the future is bright: these new sources of data will lead demographers to develop new theories and revisit and sharpen old ones.
我们正处于人口学研究新时代的早期阶段,这个新时代提供了令人兴奋的机会,可以以从前无法想象的规模和分辨率对人口现象进行量化。这些科学可能性是由新的数据来源开辟的,例如无处不在的社交计算所产生的数字痕迹、历史记录数字化所产生的大规模纵向数据集,以及通过传统数据收集模式的创新所获得的以前无法获取的人口信息。在这篇评论中,我们介绍了五种有前景的人口数据新来源及其潜在吸引力。我们指出了这些新数据源共同面临的跨领域挑战,并认为要充分发挥它们的潜力,既需要创新方法的发展,也需要对高质量的传统调查和人口普查进行持续投资。尽管存在这些巨大的挑战,但未来是光明的:这些新的数据来源将引导人口学家发展新的理论,并重新审视和完善旧的理论。
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引用次数: 0
Health Transitions and the Rise of Modern Contraceptive Prevalence: Demand, Access, and Choice 健康转型与现代避孕普及率的上升:需求、获取和选择
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12662
Jamaica Corker, Ann Biddlecom, Mohammad Jalal Abbasi‐Shavazi, Alex Ezeh, Rodolfo Gómez Ponce de León
Improvements in health and mortality, known as the health transition, played important roles in the rise of modern contraceptive prevalence across countries. We describe key mechanisms and selected research evidence that show how health transitions helped shape contraceptive transitions around the world. Mechanisms include how decreases in child mortality rates affect the motivation to use contraception and how the organization and expansion of health care affect key barriers to contraceptive use. Substantial increases in child survival resulting from health transitions increase demand for deliberate fertility regulation and contraceptive use. Improved access to primary health care, particularly maternal and child health services and expansion into rural communities, was associated with increases in modern method use. Country‐specific policies that affected the organization and delivery of health care led to the dominance of particular modern methods in some countries. Empirical evidence is limited on how the quality of health care has affected aggregate level increases in modern method use. Using modern contraceptive prevalence to define the contraceptive transition reflects current data limitations but future research on the relationship of health transitions with macrolevel contraceptive prevalence trends may be able to incorporate more comprehensive aspects of how health transitions impact contraceptive choice and agency.
健康状况和死亡率的改善,即所谓的健康转型,在各国现代避孕普及率的上升过程中发挥了重要作用。我们介绍了关键机制和部分研究证据,这些机制和证据显示了健康转型是如何帮助形成世界各地的避孕转型的。这些机制包括儿童死亡率的下降如何影响使用避孕药具的动机,以及医疗保健的组织和扩展如何影响避孕药具使用的主要障碍。健康转型导致儿童存活率大幅提高,从而增加了对有意调节生育率和使用避孕药具的需求。初级医疗保健服务的改善,特别是妇幼保健服务和向农村社区的扩展,与现代避孕方法使用率的增加有关。影响医疗保健的组织和提供的特定国家政策导致某些现代方法在一些国家占据主导地位。关于医疗质量如何影响现代避孕方法使用率的总体增长,经验证据十分有限。使用现代避孕普及率来定义避孕过渡反映了当前数据的局限性,但未来关于卫生保健过渡与宏观避孕普及率趋势之间关系的研究可能会更全面地纳入卫生保健过渡如何影响避孕选择和机构的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Recognizing Identity Fluidity in Demographic Research 认识人口研究中的身份流动性
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12670
Aliya Saperstein
Standard demographic research has typically constrained the existence of identity fluidity, assuming that demographic categories such as race or ethnicity and sex or gender should be static across the life course and measuring them as such. However, recent research and changes in data collection practices highlight the limitations of this approach by demonstrating fluidity in both racial and gender identities that rivals levels of fluidity in other identity categories, such as sexual orientation, that are more commonly seen as changeable over time. This review examines what is known about current levels of fluidity in gender, sexual orientation, and racial identities as well as known correlates and consequences for research on inequality, based primarily but not exclusively on research conducted in the United States. The implications of fluid identities for data collection and analysis, as well as prospects for future levels of fluidity, are also discussed.
标准的人口学研究通常限制了身份流动性的存在,认为种族或民族、性别或性 别等人口学类别在整个生命过程中应该是静态的,并以此来衡量它们。然而,最近的研究和数据收集方法的改变凸显了这种方法的局限性,因为种族和性别身份的流动性可以与其他身份类别(如性取向)的流动性相媲美,而其他身份类别通常被认为是随着时间的推移而变化的。本综述主要(但不限于)基于在美国进行的研究,探讨了当前性别、性取向和种族身份的流动性水平,以及与不平等研究相关的已知因素和后果。还讨论了流动身份对数据收集和分析的影响,以及对未来流动性水平的展望。
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引用次数: 0
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Population and Development Review
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