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Impact of political risk on emerging market risk premiums and risk adjusted returns 政治风险对新兴市场风险溢价和风险调整后回报的影响
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102573
Researchers have observed the political risk, sign paradox whereby a decrease in political risk is associated with an increase in stock market returns. This apparent contradiction may be driven by a few political risk factors or perhaps certain emerging market (EM) countries. This paper examines this issue by assessing how key political risk components impact equity risk premiums and risk adjusted returns among EM countries. Using monthly stock market return data for 28 EM countries from 2000 to 2019, we segment countries into high and low political risk groups to explore heterogeneous effects. We find that improvements in political risk increase risk adjusted returns by lowering the volatility of returns. Differences were also found between EM countries with improvements in government stability leading to higher risk adjusted returns among high political risk EM countries. In contrast for low political risk countries, democracy was found to have a negative effect on equity premiums, while law and order and investment profile have a positive impact. Finally, our results suggest key political risk subcomponents, such as investment profile and corruption, impact risk adjusted returns during times of financial crisis.
研究人员发现了政治风险与股票收益之间的悖论,即政治风险的降低与股票收益的增加相关联。这种明显的矛盾可能是由少数政治风险因素或某些新兴市场(EM)国家造成的。本文通过评估主要政治风险因素如何影响新兴市场国家的股票风险溢价和风险调整回报率来研究这一问题。利用 2000 年至 2019 年 28 个新兴市场国家的月度股市回报数据,我们将国家分为高政治风险组和低政治风险组,以探讨异质性影响。我们发现,政治风险的改善通过降低回报率的波动性来提高风险调整回报率。我们还发现新兴市场国家之间存在差异,在政治风险高的新兴市场国家中,政府稳定性的改善会带来更高的风险调整收益。相反,在低政治风险国家,民主对股票溢价有负面影响,而法律和秩序以及投资状况则有正面影响。最后,我们的研究结果表明,在金融危机期间,投资状况和腐败等关键政治风险子要素会影响风险调整回报率。
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引用次数: 0
Place-based policies and local technology spillovers: Evidence from national high-tech zones in China 以地方为基础的政策与地方技术溢出效应:中国国家高新区的证据
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102580

This study examines the impact of place-based policies on local technology spillovers, using a sample from the Chinese A-share market. The findings indicate that firms experience greater local technology spillovers following the establishment of national high-tech zones (HTZs). Channel analysis shows that HTZ policies facilitate the formation of R&D alliances and promote technology transactions. The positive effects are more pronounced in firms with higher knowledge absorptive capacity, those led by executives with academic backgrounds, and in environments with weaker market competition and intellectual property rights enforcement. Additionally, the research reveals that the technology spillovers generated by HTZ policies primarily spread between industries rather than within them.

本研究以中国 A 股市场为样本,探讨了地方性政策对地方技术溢出效应的影响。研究结果表明,在建立国家级高新区后,企业在当地的技术溢出效应更大。渠道分析表明,高新区政策促进了研发联盟的形成,并推动了技术交易。这种积极效应在知识吸收能力较强的企业、由具有学术背景的高管领导的企业以及市场竞争和知识产权执法较弱的环境中更为明显。此外,研究还发现,技术外溢区政策产生的技术外溢效应主要在产业间而非产业内扩散。
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引用次数: 0
Interconnectedness and return spillover among APEC currency exchange rates: A time-frequency analysis 亚太经合组织货币汇率之间的相互关联性和回报溢出效应:时频分析
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102572
By combining TVP-VAR Model (time domain connectedness) and TVP-VAR based Baruník and Křehlík model (frequency domain connectedness), this study analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse on the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum currency exchange rates. The results reveal that APEC currencies have time-varying effects (tend to cluster in appreciation and depreciation patterns in both the short and long term) and have generated higher total return spillover during COVID-19 (in the time domain) than the Russia-Ukraine war and SVB collapse. During COVID-19 (87.18 %) (total return spillover), impacts were more severe than the Russia-Ukraine crisis (79.49 %) and the Silicon Valley Bank collapse (75.55 %). Moreover, the South Korean won, Thai Bhat and Australian Dollar are identified as consistent shock transmitters, and Malaysian Ringgit, Philippine peso, Indonesian Rupiah, and Chinese Yuan as consistent shock receivers in the time domain. The findings have substantial repercussions for financial regulators and investors.
本研究结合 TVP-VAR 模型(时域关联性)和基于 TVP-VAR 的 Baruník 和 Křehlík 模型(频域关联性),分析了 COVID-19 大流行、俄乌战争和硅谷银行(SVB)倒闭对亚太经济合作组织(APEC)论坛货币汇率的影响。研究结果表明,亚太经合组织货币具有时变效应(在短期和长期内都倾向于集中升值和贬值模式),在 COVID-19 期间(在时域内)产生的总回报溢出效应高于俄乌战争和硅谷银行倒闭事件。在 COVID-19 期间(87.18%)(总回报溢出),影响比俄罗斯-乌克兰危机(79.49%)和硅谷银行倒闭(75.55%)更为严重。此外,在时域上,韩元、泰铢和澳元被确定为一致的冲击传播者,马来西亚林吉特、菲律宾比索、印尼盾和人民币被确定为一致的冲击接受者。这些发现对金融监管机构和投资者具有重大影响。
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引用次数: 0
Asset pricing when social preference meets lottery preference: Evidence from China 当社会偏好与彩票偏好相遇时的资产定价:来自中国的证据
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102576

There is substantial evidence indicating that stocks with lottery-like payoffs have lower returns. Unlike existing studies that focus on the role of investor behavior in accelerating lottery premiums, we propose that investors’ social preference toward corporate social responsibility (CSR) could alleviate the underperformance of lottery-like stocks. Using a sample of all Chinese listed A-share stocks, we show that a negative relationship between lottery preference and stock returns does not exist among stocks that behave well regarding CSR performance. Furthermore, we show that better CSR performance and higher institutional ownership mitigate the overpricing of lottery-like stocks. Our research contributes to CSR literature by showing that behaving socially responsible can prevent stock prices from being overpriced when the stock exhibits lottery-like payoffs.

大量证据表明,具有类似彩票收益的股票回报率较低。与现有研究关注投资者行为在加速彩票溢价中的作用不同,我们提出投资者对企业社会责任(CSR)的社会偏好可以缓解彩票类股票表现不佳的问题。我们以中国所有 A 股上市公司为样本,发现在企业社会责任表现良好的股票中,彩票偏好与股票回报率之间并不存在负相关关系。此外,我们还发现,较好的企业社会责任表现和较高的机构持股比例可以缓解彩票类股票定价过高的问题。我们的研究表明,当股票表现出类似彩票的回报时,履行社会责任可以防止股票价格被定价过高,从而为企业社会责任文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Time horizon and corporate investment: Evidence from private and public firms around the world 时间跨度与企业投资:来自全球私营企业和上市公司的证据
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102577

Despite their economic importance, private firms are under-researched. We examine the relationship between the country-level time horizon and corporate investment for private and public firms using a unique dataset including 75 countries from 2003 to 2017. We show that private, unlisted firms invest more in countries where the national culture is more long-term oriented. Compared to public firms, private firms are characterized by close monitoring of operations and investments by fewer owners, fewer agency costs due to more concentrated ownership structures, and the absence of short-term pressures from capital markets on investment decisions. This structure of private firms, in turn, lends itself to an informal institution like culture having relatively more influence on key private firm decisions than on those of public firms.

尽管私营企业具有重要的经济意义,但对它们的研究却不足。我们利用 2003 年至 2017 年 75 个国家的独特数据集,研究了国家层面的时间跨度与私营企业和上市公司的企业投资之间的关系。我们的研究表明,私营非上市公司在国家文化更倾向于长期投资的国家投资更多。与公营企业相比,私营企业的特点是由较少的所有者密切监督运营和投资,由于所有权结构更加集中,代理成本较低,而且投资决策不受资本市场短期压力的影响。反过来,私营企业的这种结构也使得像文化这样的非正式机构对私营企业关键决策的影响相对大于对公营企业关键决策的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Are stock markets efficient with respect to the Google search volume index? A robustness check of the literature studies 股票市场对谷歌搜索量指数有效吗?文献研究的稳健性检验
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102574

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is still a debated subject in the financial area. Particularly, no conclusions are drawn to date in link with the Google Search Volume Index (GSVI). To conclude on this question, our paper takes up the work of Škrinjarić (2019) by proposing robustness tests, various econometric improvements and the inclusion of additional explanatory variables. On a database of ten emerging European indices studied by Škrinjarić (2019), a dynamic panel model was applied. Unlike Škrinjarić (2019) who modeled the time-series separately and thus neglected any possible dependence or homogeneity between countries, our study operates within the framework of panel data. Drawing from a robust estimation approach, our findings indicate that the GSVI has no impact on market returns. In essence, this suggests that internet search queries fail to provide avenues for investors to seize arbitrage opportunities. Such findings support the EMH in the studied markets and underline the exposure of prior studies to robustness challenges.

有效市场假说(EMH)在金融领域仍是一个争论不休的话题。特别是,迄今为止尚未得出与谷歌搜索量指数(GSVI)相关的结论。为了就这一问题得出结论,我们的论文继承了 Škrinjarić (2019 年)的研究成果,提出了稳健性测试、各种计量经济学改进方法并加入了额外的解释变量。在Škrinjarić(2019 年)研究的十个新兴欧洲指数数据库中,应用了动态面板模型。Škrinjarić(2019 年)对时间序列进行了单独建模,因此忽略了国家间可能存在的依赖性或同质性,而我们的研究则与之不同,是在面板数据框架内进行的。通过稳健的估计方法,我们的研究结果表明,GSVI 对市场回报率没有影响。从本质上讲,这表明互联网搜索查询未能为投资者提供抓住套利机会的途径。这些研究结果支持了所研究市场的 EMH,并强调了先前研究面临的稳健性挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Commercial bank NSFR adjustment and risk: Evidence from China 商业银行 NSFR 调整与风险:来自中国的证据
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102559

The net stable funding ratio (NSFR) is a critical monitoring indicator of bank liquidity risk introduced under the Basel III accord in 2009. This study used the partial adjustment model to analyze the NSFR adjustment behavior of Chinese commercial banks, leading to the following four findings. First, banks have been undertaking active liquidity adjustment while exceeding global and Chinese minimum standards. Second, the NSFR’s target level and adjustment speed are significantly higher than those of foreign banks. Third, the target NSFR gap is essential to the NSFR’s positive adjustment. Fourth, a higher target level and steady adjustment speed help reduce loss from systemic risk. This paper suggests establishing three liquidity risk firewalls, providing an essential reference for understanding NSFR adjustment in Chinese commercial banks. The study also provides practical significance for policy-level assessments regarding the impact of implementing NSFR supervision and establishing liquidity risk firewalls.

净稳定资金比率(NSFR)是 2009 年巴塞尔协议 III 引入的银行流动性风险的重要监测指标。本研究采用部分调整模型分析了中国商业银行的净稳定资金比率调整行为,得出以下四个结论。第一,银行一直在进行积极的流动性调整,同时超过了全球和中国的最低标准。第二,NSFR的目标水平和调整速度明显高于国外银行。第三,NSFR目标缺口对NSFR的积极调整至关重要。第四,较高的目标水平和稳定的调整速度有助于减少系统性风险带来的损失。本文提出建立三道流动性风险防火墙,为理解我国商业银行的 NSFR 调整提供了重要参考。同时,该研究也为政策层面评估实施 NSFR 监管和建立流动性风险防火墙的影响提供了现实意义。
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引用次数: 0
Towards sustainability: Examining financial, economic, and societal determinants of environmental degradation 实现可持续性:研究环境退化的金融、经济和社会决定因素
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102557

We examine the determinants of environmental degradation, focusing on MENA economies from 1991 to 2020, with a particular focus on the role of sectoral composition. Specifically, we assess the contributions of the industrial, manufacturing, agricultural, and service sectors to GDP and their impact on environmental outcomes. Employing augmented mean group estimation, we evidence that technological advancements and renewable energy consumption significantly reduce environmental degradation, and that multinational corporations from developed countries transfer beneficial environmental practices to local firms in emerging regions. Results offer new insights into the impact of financial, economic, and societal factors on environmental outcomes.

我们研究了环境退化的决定因素,重点是 1991 年至 2020 年中东和北非地区的经济体,尤其关注部门构成的作用。具体而言,我们评估了工业、制造业、农业和服务业对国内生产总值的贡献及其对环境结果的影响。通过使用增强均值组估算法,我们证明技术进步和可再生能源消费大大减少了环境退化,发达国家的跨国公司向新兴地区的本地企业转移了有益的环保做法。研究结果为金融、经济和社会因素对环境结果的影响提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
The environmental and social performance of firms and the impact of different types of institutional ownership: A French perspective 企业的环境和社会绩效以及不同类型机构所有权的影响:法国视角
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102558

This study investigates how institutional ownership affects the social and environmental performance of firms in France. We specifically examine the impact of pressure-resistant and pressure-sensitive investors. We utilize the taxonomy created by Brickley et al. (1988) to categorize the various institutional investors, and we distinguish between environmental performance (EP) and social performance (SP). Our findings align with agency theory, and we utilize a paradigm that considers the diversity of institutional investors’ choices based on their investment goals, time horizons, and characteristics. Our findings indicate that various forms of institutional investor ownership are associated with distinct aspects of corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance—both environmental and social; having investors who are resistant to pressure is linked to improved EP; and corporate ownership by pressure-sensitive institutional investors has no significant impact on the assessed aspects of CSR.

本研究探讨了机构所有权如何影响法国企业的社会和环境绩效。我们特别考察了抗压型投资者和压力敏感型投资者的影响。我们利用 Brickley 等人(1988 年)创建的分类法对各种机构投资者进行分类,并区分环境绩效(EP)和社会绩效(SP)。我们的研究结果与代理理论相一致,我们采用的范式考虑了机构投资者基于其投资目标、时间跨度和特征所做出的多样化选择。我们的研究结果表明,各种形式的机构投资者所有权与企业社会责任(CSR)绩效的不同方面相关,包括环境绩效和社会绩效;具有抗压能力的投资者与改善环境绩效相关;对压力敏感的机构投资者的公司所有权对企业社会责任的评估方面没有显著影响。
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引用次数: 0
Comparing the resilience of socially responsible and SIN investment during the COVID-19 pandemic 比较社会责任投资和 SIN 投资在 COVID-19 大流行期间的抗灾能力
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102537

This study analyses the performance dynamics of socially responsible investment (SRI) and SIN investment exchange-traded funds (ETFs) during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Utilising a GARCH methodology, the research examines ETF returns while considering significant COVID-19-related events to assess their impact. The study diverges from the conventional narrative of SIN stocks’ superiority by illustrating the resilience and outperformance of SRI ETFs in terms of returns and volatility stability during the pandemic. This finding challenges previous assertions in the literature and suggests a potential paradigm shift in investment strategies during periods of global crisis. The results underscore the importance of integrating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors into investment decisions, especially in turbulent times. This study offers investors actionable insights into the benefits of SRI ETFs, demonstrating their ability to provide stable returns and reduced risk during economic downturns. Fund managers can leverage these findings to align their portfolios with ESG principles, enhancing resilience against future crises. Policymakers can also draw on this evidence to promote sustainable investment frameworks that support long-term financial stability. Overall, this study contributes to the evolving discourse on sustainable investing, positioning SRI as a viable approach that balances financial performance with societal impact.

本研究分析了美国 COVID-19 大流行期间社会责任投资(SRI)和 SIN 投资交易所交易基金(ETF)的业绩动态。研究采用 GARCH 方法,在考虑与 COVID-19 相关的重大事件以评估其影响的同时,对 ETF 收益进行了研究。该研究与传统的 SIN 股票优越论不同,它说明了 SRI ETF 在大流行病期间在回报和波动稳定性方面的韧性和优异表现。这一发现挑战了以往文献中的论断,并表明在全球危机期间投资策略可能会发生范式转变。研究结果强调了将环境、社会和治理(ESG)因素纳入投资决策的重要性,尤其是在动荡时期。这项研究为投资者提供了关于社会责任投资 ETF 好处的可行见解,证明了它们在经济衰退期间提供稳定回报和降低风险的能力。基金经理可以利用这些研究结果,使他们的投资组合符合环境、社会和公司治理原则,从而增强抵御未来危机的能力。政策制定者也可以利用这些证据来促进支持长期金融稳定的可持续投资框架。总之,本研究为不断发展的可持续投资讨论做出了贡献,它将社会责任投资定位为一种可行的方法,可平衡财务绩效与社会影响。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Research in International Business and Finance
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