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How does the geographic concentration of institutional investors affect corporate risk? Evidence from China 机构投资者的地域集中如何影响企业风险?来自中国的证据
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103226
Luoxi Lin , Peiyuan Wang , Yilin Huang
By utilizing the geographic data of institutional investors from 2012 to 2023, this study investigates how the geographic concentration of institutional investors (GCII) affects firms’ stock price idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL). The findings indicate that the GCII significantly mitigates corporate information asymmetry and enhances internal governance quality, consequently reducing firms’ IVOL. Additional analysis reveals that the negative impact of the GCII on IVOL is pronounced for firms located in provinces with underdeveloped transport infrastructure and firms with lower analyst coverage.
本文利用2012 - 2023年机构投资者地理数据,探讨了机构投资者地理集中度对公司股价特质波动率的影响。研究结果表明,GCII显著缓解了企业信息不对称,提高了内部治理质量,从而降低了企业的IVOL。进一步的分析表明,对于位于交通基础设施不发达省份的公司和分析师覆盖率较低的公司,GCII对IVOL的负面影响是明显的。
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引用次数: 0
Protectionism and safe-haven demand: Sovereign bond reactions to the 2025 U.S. tariff announcement 保护主义和避险需求:主权债券对2025年美国关税公告的反应
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103233
Tomasz Kaczmarek , Ender Demir , Wael Rouatbi , Adam Zaremba
We examine sovereign bond market reactions to the U.S. ”reciprocal” tariff announcement on April 2, 2025, using daily returns from 61 countries. Government bond prices rose following the announcement, consistent with a flight-to-safety response amid heightened global uncertainty. Cross-country variation reflects three main drivers: tariff exposure, fiscal fundamentals, and export orientation. Bonds from countries facing higher tariffs experience stronger gains, but this effect weakens for sovereigns with poor credit quality or high unemployment. Moreover, bonds issued by net exporters underperform, suggesting that investor concerns center on structural vulnerabilities rather than general trade openness. Overall, the results highlight the selective nature of the flight-to-safety dynamic during episodes of rising protectionism.
我们研究了主权债券市场对美国2025年4月2日“互惠”关税公告的反应,使用了61个国家的日回报。公告发布后,政府债券价格上涨,这与在全球不确定性加剧之际投资者避险的反应一致。跨国差异反映了三个主要驱动因素:关税风险、财政基本面和出口导向。面临更高关税的国家的债券收益更大,但对于信贷质量差或失业率高的主权国家,这种影响减弱。此外,净出口国发行的债券表现不佳,表明投资者的担忧集中在结构性脆弱性上,而非总体贸易开放程度。总的来说,研究结果凸显了在保护主义抬头的时期,向安全领域转移的选择本质。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting of Chinese stock price using a hybrid neural network model 基于混合神经网络模型的中国股票价格预测
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103232
Dexiang Mei , Xiaotao Li
Against the backdrop of economic globalization, the outbreak of numerous transnational emergencies (such as geopolitical wars, trade frictions, and political conflicts) has affected the Chinese financial market and introduced significant uncertainties (e.g., monetary policy, political risk, and geopolitical risk). In addition, the stock market is a complex, nonlinear, and dynamic system. Therefore, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and principal component analysis (PCA) techniques are used to construct a comprehensive uncertainty index for the Chinese stock market. Neural networks (a gated recurrent unit (GRU), long short-term memory (LSTM), and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM)) are embedded into a generalized autoaggressive conditional heteroskedasticity-mixed-data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) model to construct an integrated model. The empirical results show that the newly constructed uncertainty factor provided effective information for predicting Chinese stock market volatility, and that the model's predictive ability integrated model's predictive ability is significantly better than that of the traditional model both statistical and economical. A robustness test confirms these conclusions. Therefore, understanding the volatility rules and structural characteristics of the financial market plays a vital role in accurately predicting volatility and preventing financial risk.
在经济全球化背景下,众多跨国突发事件(如地缘政治战争、贸易摩擦、政治冲突)的爆发影响了中国金融市场,并带来了重大的不确定性(如货币政策、政治风险、地缘政治风险)。此外,股票市场是一个复杂的、非线性的、动态的系统。因此,采用最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)和主成分分析(PCA)技术构建中国股市的综合不确定性指数。将神经网络(门控循环单元(GRU)、长短期记忆(LSTM)和双向长短期记忆(BiLSTM))嵌入到广义自攻击条件异方差混合数据采样(GARCH-MIDAS)模型中,构建集成模型。实证结果表明,新构建的不确定性因子为预测中国股市波动提供了有效信息,综合模型的预测能力显著优于传统模型的统计和经济预测能力。稳健性检验证实了这些结论。因此,了解金融市场的波动规律和结构特征,对于准确预测波动,防范金融风险具有至关重要的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Carbon pricing and sovereign credit risk: A threshold analysis of policy design and economic structure for climate-fiscal resilience” [Res. Int. Bus. Financ. 81 (2025) 103197] 碳定价与主权信用风险:气候-财政弹性政策设计和经济结构的阈值分析[j]。公共汽车。财经。81 (2025)103197]
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103216
Chabi Marcellin Daki Dominique , Yixiang Tian , Huiling Huang , Haroon ur Rashid Khan
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引用次数: 0
Can the establishment of a personal data protection system promote firm value? An exploration of the economics of privacy 个人资料保障制度的建立能否提升企业价值?对隐私经济学的探索
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103230
Zhen Wang
This study refines the economics of privacy and explores the impact of personal privacy protection on the sustainable development of enterprises. The findings provide a valuable reference for governments to optimize existing personal privacy policies, and provide guidance for enterprises to manage data property rationally and improve firm value. This study introduces a novel approach by creating a dynamic model involving incomplete information, which includes businesses, consumers, and the government, to theoretically elucidate how establishing a personal data protection system can enhance the market value of enterprises. Additionally, this study seeks to determine the minimum government-imposed fines and likelihood of inspections necessary to reduce the incentive for enterprises to falsify data when they do not protect them. The subsequent empirical analysis uses data from 2011 to 2020 to verify the theoretical hypothesis. Further analysis explores the driving effects that not only originate from the independent intrinsic value of establishing a personal data protection system, but also rely on social trust enhancement, market share expansion, and institutional investor preference mechanisms. Moreover, the market value enhancement effects resulting from enterprises' privacy protection measures are more pronounced in enterprises characterized by data insensitivity, industry chain upstream, and competitive industries. The government's data governance, including public data openness and digital government construction, generates multiplier effects.
本研究对隐私经济学进行细化,探讨个人隐私保护对企业可持续发展的影响。研究结果为政府优化现有个人隐私政策提供了有价值的参考,也为企业合理管理数据财产、提升企业价值提供了指导。本研究引入一种新颖的方法,通过建立一个包含企业、消费者和政府的不完全信息的动态模型,从理论上阐明建立个人数据保护制度如何提升企业的市场价值。此外,本研究试图确定政府施加的最低罚款和必要的检查可能性,以减少企业在不保护数据时伪造数据的动机。随后的实证分析使用2011年至2020年的数据来验证理论假设。进一步分析发现,个人数据保护制度的驱动效应不仅来源于建立个人数据保护制度的独立内在价值,还依赖于社会信任的增强、市场份额的扩大和机构投资者偏好机制。此外,企业隐私保护措施带来的市场价值提升效应在数据不敏感企业、产业链上游企业和竞争性行业中更为明显。政府数据治理,包括公共数据开放和数字政府建设,产生乘数效应。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal carbon capture and storage investments under global warming 全球变暖下的最佳碳捕集与封存投资
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103229
Renzhong Li , Chen Fei , Xiaodong Ding , Weiyin Fei
This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model for climate policies. We allow for three types of economic damages from climate warming. On one hand, rising temperatures damage output and capital stock of both green sector and brown sector. On the other hand, rising temperatures will damage the carbon storage of natural carbon sinks. Given damages, this paper compares two climate policies to mitigate economic damages from climate change. One is the Nordhaus carbon abatement policy which is from the perspective of carbon sources, and we derive the optimal carbon price path under dynamic carbon sinks. The other is the CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) artificial carbon sink policy, and we address the problem of the optimal CCS investment path in the future. We recommend that future investment in CCS should follow a trend that first increases and then decreases over time. Green investment is projected to overtake brown investment around 2050 and completely substitute it by 2100 driven by the implementation of climate policies. Moreover, we reveal that there is a reverse optimal relationship between the two climate policies and the implementation of carbon sink policies contributes to the stability of the carbon pricing market. In addition, scenario analysis shows that high CCS investment crowds out green investment and leads to partial economic losses compared to lower or no CCS investment.
本文构建了气候政策的动态随机均衡模型。我们考虑到气候变暖造成的三种经济损失。一方面,气温上升损害了绿色部门和棕色部门的产出和资本存量。另一方面,气温上升将破坏天然碳汇的碳储存。在给定损失的情况下,本文比较了两种减轻气候变化经济损失的气候政策。一种是从碳源角度出发的诺德豪斯碳减排政策,推导出动态碳汇下的最优碳价路径;二是碳捕集与封存(CCS)人工碳汇政策,探讨未来碳捕集与封存投资的最佳路径问题。我们建议未来对CCS的投资应遵循先增加后减少的趋势。在气候政策实施的推动下,绿色投资预计将在2050年左右超过棕色投资,并在2100年完全取代棕色投资。此外,我们还发现两种气候政策之间存在反向最优关系,碳汇政策的实施有助于碳定价市场的稳定。此外,情景分析表明,与低CCS投资或不投资相比,高CCS投资挤占了绿色投资,并导致部分经济损失。
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引用次数: 0
Firm digitalization and bank lending: Evidence from China 企业数字化与银行贷款:来自中国的证据
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103227
Lihong Cao , Xuanning Zhu , Yi Li
This paper examines how firm digitalization influences bank loans and debt maturity using data from Chinese-listed firms from 2009 to 2021. By employing machine learning and large language models to measure digitalization, we find that digitalization significantly increases both the scale of bank loans and the proportion of long-term loans. The effect of digitalization is stronger for credit and guaranteed loans than for collateral loans, indicating that digitalization reduces the collateral requirements in lending. Mechanism analysis reveals that digitalization enhances firms’ access to bank lending by improving information transparency, financial stability and corporate reputation. The positive effect is stronger for firms without credit ratings, highlighting digitalization’s role in reducing information asymmetry. Additionally, the effects are more pronounced in regions with advanced banking systems and marketization, for firms in traditional industries and firms under competitive pressure. Our findings highlight digitalization’s critical role in improving firms’ credit market competitiveness and advocate for government policies to facilitate firm digitalization. It offers actionable insights for firms in bank-dominated economies globally to alleviate financial constraints through technological development.
本文利用2009年至2021年中国上市公司的数据,研究了企业数字化对银行贷款和债务期限的影响。通过使用机器学习和大型语言模型来衡量数字化,我们发现数字化显著增加了银行贷款的规模和长期贷款的比例。数字化对信贷和担保贷款的影响强于对抵押贷款的影响,这表明数字化降低了贷款中的抵押要求。机制分析表明,数字化通过提高信息透明度、财务稳定性和企业声誉,提高了企业获得银行贷款的机会。对于没有信用评级的公司,积极效应更强,突出了数字化在减少信息不对称方面的作用。此外,对于传统行业的企业和面临竞争压力的企业来说,这种影响在银行体系和市场化程度较高的地区更为明显。我们的研究结果强调了数字化在提高企业信贷市场竞争力方面的关键作用,并倡导政府政策促进企业数字化。它为全球银行主导经济体的企业提供了可操作的见解,以通过技术发展缓解财务约束。
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引用次数: 0
Sovereign credit ratings, fiscal burden and corporate investment policies: An international evidence 主权信用评级、财政负担与企业投资政策:国际证据
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103228
Nhan Huynh , Hoa Phan , Kyle Paquette , Phuong Thi Thu Vu
This study examines how changes in sovereign credit ratings influence corporate investment decisions, with a particular emphasis on the moderating role of public debt burdens. Using a panel of 2213 rated firms across 52 countries from 1995 to 2021, we document an asymmetric effect: sovereign downgrades lead to a significant 20.5 % reduction in total investment, primarily driven by sharp declines in long-term capital expenditures and a reallocation toward short-term investments. By contrast, rating upgrades have no meaningful effect on investment, highlighting that rating shocks are more disruptive in the downward direction. Our results suggest that rising borrowing costs and heightened financial constraints are key channels through which sovereign risk spills over to firms, with the adverse effects of downgrades further amplified in high-debt countries. Our results are robust across alternative investment proxies, subsample analyses, and endogeneity controls, and are reinforced by additional sectoral and institutional heterogeneity tests, highlighting both the pervasiveness of the downgrade effect and the capacity of strong governance environments to mitigate its impact.
本研究考察了主权信用评级的变化如何影响企业投资决策,特别强调了公共债务负担的调节作用。从1995年到2021年,我们对52个国家的2213家评级公司进行了调查,发现了一种不对称效应:主权评级下调导致总投资大幅减少20.5% %,这主要是由于长期资本支出急剧下降和短期投资的重新配置。相比之下,评级上调对投资没有显著影响,这突显出评级冲击在下调方向更具破坏性。我们的研究结果表明,借贷成本上升和金融约束加剧是主权风险向企业溢出的关键渠道,在高债务国家,评级下调的不利影响进一步放大。我们的结果在替代投资代理、子样本分析和内生性控制方面都是稳健的,并且通过额外的部门和制度异质性测试得到了加强,突出了降级效应的普遍性和强有力的治理环境减轻其影响的能力。
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引用次数: 0
MENA stock markets decoupling: Winners and losers from the wars in Ukraine and Middle East 中东和北非股市脱钩:乌克兰和中东战争的赢家和输家
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103221
Sam Hakim , Simon Neaime
This study investigates whether and to what extent financial markets in MENA countries exhibit structural decoupling from global financial trends in response to geopolitical shocks. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that heightened geopolitical uncertainty accelerates financial differentiation in MENA markets. Using a GARCH-VAR model on monthly data from 2014 to 2024, we identify evolving volatility transmission patterns between MENA and global markets, particularly during key geopolitical episodes. Our results suggest a regionally specific shift toward financial insularity, shaped by both economic and strategic realignments. We note a clear decoupling from historical correlations in the MENA region’s equity markets, with leading countries of that region either completely or partially decoupled. The empirical results indicate that countries in the region are rejecting pressures to take sides, and seeking a new direction by strengthening ties with emerging markets.
本研究探讨了中东和北非国家的金融市场是否以及在多大程度上表现出与全球金融趋势的结构性脱钩,以应对地缘政治冲击。具体而言,我们检验了地缘政治不确定性加剧加速中东和北非市场金融分化的假设。利用2014年至2024年月度数据的GARCH-VAR模型,我们确定了中东和北非地区与全球市场之间不断变化的波动传导模式,特别是在关键的地缘政治事件期间。我们的研究结果表明,在经济和战略调整的共同作用下,各地区正在向金融孤岛化转变。我们注意到中东和北非地区股票市场的历史相关性明显脱钩,该地区的主要国家完全或部分脱钩。实证结果表明,该地区国家正在拒绝站队的压力,并通过加强与新兴市场的联系来寻求新的方向。
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引用次数: 0
Artificial intelligence innovation and financial information quality: Evidence from firm patent data 人工智能创新与财务信息质量:来自企业专利数据的证据
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103225
Zheng Li , Haitong Li , Pengyi Dai
The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping corporate practices, making its unintended implications for firms’ governance a topic worth exploring. This study examines the association between AI innovation and financial information quality from a governance perspective. Based on patent-level textual data, we construct an AI keyword dictionary using machine learning and measure firm-level AI innovation using text analysis method. Our empirical results indicate that AI innovation is positively associated with firm’s financial information quality. The mechanisms include improvements in internal control and increased external market attention. In cross-sectional analyses, our main finding is more pronounced in firms with poor corporate governance, high-tech certifications, and strong government digital initiatives. We further find the dual role of AI innovation in enhancing governance by reducing two types of agency costs. Our study provides new insights into the role of AI innovation in improving corporate governance and financial information quality.
人工智能(AI)的快速发展正在重塑企业实践,使其对公司治理的意外影响成为一个值得探讨的话题。本研究从治理的角度考察了人工智能创新与财务信息质量之间的关系。基于专利级文本数据,我们利用机器学习构建了人工智能关键字字典,并利用文本分析方法衡量企业级人工智能创新。实证结果表明,人工智能创新与企业财务信息质量呈正相关。这些机制包括改善内部控制和增加外部市场关注。在横断面分析中,我们的主要发现在公司治理较差、高科技认证和强有力的政府数字化计划的公司中更为明显。我们进一步发现人工智能创新在通过降低两种类型的代理成本来加强治理方面的双重作用。我们的研究为人工智能创新在改善公司治理和财务信息质量方面的作用提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
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Research in International Business and Finance
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