Pub Date : 2026-01-10DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103301
Chao Liu , Xue J. Liu , Robert Faff
Employing a sample of A-share companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2007 to 2024, we conduct an empirical study to examine whether and to what extent there is a peer effect in annual report tone. We document a significant positive peer effect of this type and it is more pronounced when the focal annual reports are delayed. In addition, peers have a more amplified effect on the focal firm’s tone for stocks with low institutional and private ownership stocks. Further analysis of the potential motivations shows that market competition, media coverage pressure, and culture all have a role to play. Additionally, we find that the peer effect of annual report tone weakens information efficiency, manifested in heightened stock price synchronicity. Our empirical results remain strong under a battery of robustness checks.
{"title":"Following the crowd: peer effects in corporate annual report tone","authors":"Chao Liu , Xue J. Liu , Robert Faff","doi":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103301","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103301","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Employing a sample of A-share companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2007 to 2024, we conduct an empirical study to examine whether and to what extent there is a peer effect in annual report tone. We document a significant positive peer effect of this type and it is more pronounced when the focal annual reports are delayed. In addition, peers have a more amplified effect on the focal firm’s tone for stocks with low institutional and private ownership stocks. Further analysis of the potential motivations shows that market competition, media coverage pressure, and culture all have a role to play. Additionally, we find that the peer effect of annual report tone weakens information efficiency, manifested in heightened stock price synchronicity. Our empirical results remain strong under a battery of robustness checks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51430,"journal":{"name":"Research in International Business and Finance","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103301"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-09DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103302
Amal Ben Hamida , Christian de Peretti , Lotfi Belkacem
Benford’s Law has been widely used to detect data irregularities across various domains, including finance. While prior work (Hamida et al., 2024) demonstrated its predictive relevance for daily stock returns, this study extends that framework to high-frequency intraday data, offering a new perspective on short-term market dynamics. Specifically, we apply Benford’s Law to the first-digit distributions of intraday stock returns, trading volume, and trade durations, two microstructural variables never explored in Benford-based financial research. Using data from twenty Euronext Paris-listed companies, we uncover significant deviations from Benford’s distribution that are particularly pronounced during anomalous market periods. These deviations are then incorporated into both linear and switching regime models to assess their predictive impact. Our findings reveal that Benford-derived indicators are conditionally informative, showing predictive value primarily during anomalous market periods, whether driven by intentional manipulation or by significant, non-fraudulent irregularities. These indicators function as effective early-warning signals for abnormal intraday dynamics. The study advances both forecasting and forensic finance by integrating a diagnostic tool into real-time predictive modeling in high-frequency trading environments.
本福德定律已被广泛用于检测包括金融在内的各个领域的数据违规行为。虽然之前的工作（Hamida et al., 2024）证明了其对每日股票回报的预测相关性，但本研究将该框架扩展到高频日内数据，为短期市场动态提供了新的视角。具体来说，我们将本福德定律应用于日内股票收益、交易量和交易持续时间的第一位数分布，这两个微观结构变量在本福德金融研究中从未被探索过。利用20家巴黎泛欧交易所上市公司的数据，我们发现了Benford分布的显著偏差，这种偏差在异常市场时期尤为明显。然后将这些偏差合并到线性和切换状态模型中，以评估其预测影响。我们的研究结果表明，本福德衍生的指标是有条件的信息，主要在异常市场时期显示预测价值，无论是由故意操纵还是由重大的非欺诈性违规行为驱动。这些指标是异常盘中动态的有效预警信号。该研究通过将诊断工具集成到高频交易环境中的实时预测建模中，推进了预测和司法金融的发展。
{"title":"Benford’s law and intraday microstructure anomalies: Forecasting market movements with high-frequency data","authors":"Amal Ben Hamida , Christian de Peretti , Lotfi Belkacem","doi":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103302","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103302","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Benford’s Law has been widely used to detect data irregularities across various domains, including finance. While prior work (Hamida et al., 2024) demonstrated its predictive relevance for daily stock returns, this study extends that framework to high-frequency intraday data, offering a new perspective on short-term market dynamics. Specifically, we apply Benford’s Law to the first-digit distributions of intraday stock returns, trading volume, and trade durations, two microstructural variables never explored in Benford-based financial research. Using data from twenty Euronext Paris-listed companies, we uncover significant deviations from Benford’s distribution that are particularly pronounced during anomalous market periods. These deviations are then incorporated into both linear and switching regime models to assess their predictive impact. Our findings reveal that Benford-derived indicators are conditionally informative, showing predictive value primarily during anomalous market periods, whether driven by intentional manipulation or by significant, non-fraudulent irregularities. These indicators function as effective early-warning signals for abnormal intraday dynamics. The study advances both forecasting and forensic finance by integrating a diagnostic tool into real-time predictive modeling in high-frequency trading environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51430,"journal":{"name":"Research in International Business and Finance","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103302"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145969434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-09DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103261
Pengfei Yin , Sicheng Li , Gabriel XG Yue
This study investigates the impact of ESG rating adjustment disagreement (ADJDIS) on firms' stock price synchronicity (SPS) using data from Chinese listed firms from 2018 to 2023. Our findings reveal that ADJDIS significantly exacerbates stock price synchronicity. This effect is primarily transmitted through two channels: increased information costs and intensified irrational trading. In the information cost mechanism, we find that ADJDIS's negative impact mainly stems from raising investors' information search costs. When the firm effectively mitigates the search friction through comprehensive ESG disclosure, the impact of ADJDIS is weakened, while the linguistic complexity of the report has no moderating effect. In the irrational trading mechanism, ADJDIS not only has a direct positive effect on stock mispricing but its exacerbating impact on SPS is concentrated in periods of high market investor sentiment and in firms with a higher proportion of retail investors. Furthermore, we find that the adverse effect of ADJDIS on SPS is bounded by ESG investment strategies, concentrating only in firms at the extreme ends of the ESG performance spectrum, and is mitigated by ESG core fund ownership. This study highlights the distinct economic significance of adjustment disagreement and underscores the crucial role of optimizing the information environment in reducing its negative impact.
{"title":"ESG rating adjustment disagreement and stock price synchronicity: Evidence from China","authors":"Pengfei Yin , Sicheng Li , Gabriel XG Yue","doi":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103261","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103261","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of ESG rating adjustment disagreement (ADJDIS) on firms' stock price synchronicity (SPS) using data from Chinese listed firms from 2018 to 2023. Our findings reveal that ADJDIS significantly exacerbates stock price synchronicity. This effect is primarily transmitted through two channels: increased information costs and intensified irrational trading. In the information cost mechanism, we find that ADJDIS's negative impact mainly stems from raising investors' information search costs. When the firm effectively mitigates the search friction through comprehensive ESG disclosure, the impact of ADJDIS is weakened, while the linguistic complexity of the report has no moderating effect. In the irrational trading mechanism, ADJDIS not only has a direct positive effect on stock mispricing but its exacerbating impact on SPS is concentrated in periods of high market investor sentiment and in firms with a higher proportion of retail investors. Furthermore, we find that the adverse effect of ADJDIS on SPS is bounded by ESG investment strategies, concentrating only in firms at the extreme ends of the ESG performance spectrum, and is mitigated by ESG core fund ownership. This study highlights the distinct economic significance of adjustment disagreement and underscores the crucial role of optimizing the information environment in reducing its negative impact.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51430,"journal":{"name":"Research in International Business and Finance","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103261"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-08DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103297
Lance Malone, Lee A. Smales, Zhangxin (Frank) Liu
We study the performance of through-the-cycle (TTC) credit ratings during the COVID-19 shock using sentiment analysis of 24,178 Moody’s rating reports issued 2012–2024. We document three findings. First, report sentiment collapsed in March 2020 while average rating levels remained essentially unchanged. Second, sentiment Granger-causes subsequent downgrades, leading formal rating actions by 1–2 months in normal periods and by 3–4 months during the pandemic. Third, credit spreads closely tracked sentiment rather than the sticky TTC ratings, with sentiment’s explanatory power for spread variation rising from approximately 10 % in “normal” years to 58 % in 2020–2021. These patterns show that, when shock permanence is uncertain, TTC methodology delays rating adjustments and shifts timely credit-risk information into narrative commentary. The evidence suggests value in hybrid rating systems that preserve TTC ratings for regulatory capital purposes while disclosing supplementary point-in-time indicators to reduce information frictions.
{"title":"A test of through-the-cycle ratings: Moody’s response to COVID-19","authors":"Lance Malone, Lee A. Smales, Zhangxin (Frank) Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103297","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103297","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the performance of through-the-cycle (TTC) credit ratings during the COVID-19 shock using sentiment analysis of 24,178 Moody’s rating reports issued 2012–2024. We document three findings. First, report sentiment collapsed in March 2020 while average rating levels remained essentially unchanged. Second, sentiment Granger-causes subsequent downgrades, leading formal rating actions by 1–2 months in normal periods and by 3–4 months during the pandemic. Third, credit spreads closely tracked sentiment rather than the sticky TTC ratings, with sentiment’s explanatory power for spread variation rising from approximately 10 % in “normal” years to 58 % in 2020–2021. These patterns show that, when shock permanence is uncertain, TTC methodology delays rating adjustments and shifts timely credit-risk information into narrative commentary. The evidence suggests value in hybrid rating systems that preserve TTC ratings for regulatory capital purposes while disclosing supplementary point-in-time indicators to reduce information frictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51430,"journal":{"name":"Research in International Business and Finance","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103297"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146025131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-08DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103265
Mingfeng He , Dengshi Huang , Xianping Hou , Yong Li
This paper develops a model to investigate the motivations behind controlling shareholders’ share pledges and their determinants. The results show that these motivations hinge on the trade-off between the marginal private gain from pledging and the marginal control benefit from ownership. When pledge funds are reinjected into firms, although aggregate welfare increases, a higher incremental firm profit per pledged share unexpectedly reduces the incentive to pledge shares because of the free-rider problem. When funds are used for personal projects, pledge intensity increases with investment opportunities, financing needs, and loan-to-value ratios; decreases with risk aversion and firm monitoring costs; and is invariant to ownership endowment. Moreover, controlling shareholders may maintain pledges even when social losses exceed private gains, which can lead to socially wasteful outcomes, and sufficiently large private benefits per pledged share can even trigger full pledging. To address these issues, authorities, firms and shareholders should effectively disclose the use of pledge funds, restrict the voting rights of pledged shares, and restructure the benefit-distribution and risk-sharing mechanisms associated with reinvesting pledge funds into firms.
{"title":"The motivations and influencing factors of share pledging: An analysis of pledging and trading strategies","authors":"Mingfeng He , Dengshi Huang , Xianping Hou , Yong Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103265","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103265","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper develops a model to investigate the motivations behind controlling shareholders’ share pledges and their determinants. The results show that these motivations hinge on the trade-off between the marginal private gain from pledging and the marginal control benefit from ownership. When pledge funds are reinjected into firms, although aggregate welfare increases, a higher incremental firm profit per pledged share unexpectedly reduces the incentive to pledge shares because of the free-rider problem. When funds are used for personal projects, pledge intensity increases with investment opportunities, financing needs, and loan-to-value ratios; decreases with risk aversion and firm monitoring costs; and is invariant to ownership endowment. Moreover, controlling shareholders may maintain pledges even when social losses exceed private gains, which can lead to socially wasteful outcomes, and sufficiently large private benefits per pledged share can even trigger full pledging. To address these issues, authorities, firms and shareholders should effectively disclose the use of pledge funds, restrict the voting rights of pledged shares, and restructure the benefit-distribution and risk-sharing mechanisms associated with reinvesting pledge funds into firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51430,"journal":{"name":"Research in International Business and Finance","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103265"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146025127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-07DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103295
Amin Shakourloo, Asil Azimli
This study analyzes the regime-switching behavior of Bitcoin volatility and its dependence on macroeconomic factors in global macro-financial uncertainty periods. Using the Markov-Switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) model and the Hidden Markov Copula framework, we capture the nonlinear, tail dependence in the co-movement of Bitcoin volatility and various foreign exchange pairs. The results indicate that Bitcoin's behavior deviates substantially from a haven asset in crisis periods, supporting the importance of regime-aware risk assessment and asset pricing models. This paper adds to the literature by replacing static breakpoint assumptions with stochastic regime-switching and augmenting volatility modeling with macro-triggers. Practical implications are drawn for institutional investors to adopt regime-sensitive risk models to manage tail risks, while regulators can implement early-warning systems based on regime shifts.
{"title":"Regime-switching in bitcoin volatility under global uncertainty: Markov-switching GARCH and hidden Markov Copula approaches","authors":"Amin Shakourloo, Asil Azimli","doi":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103295","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103295","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyzes the regime-switching behavior of Bitcoin volatility and its dependence on macroeconomic factors in global<!--> <!-->macro-financial uncertainty periods. Using the Markov-Switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) model and the Hidden Markov Copula framework, we capture the nonlinear, tail dependence in the co-movement of Bitcoin volatility and various foreign exchange pairs. The results<!--> <!-->indicate that Bitcoin's behavior deviates substantially from a haven asset in crisis periods, supporting the importance of regime-aware risk assessment<!--> <!-->and asset pricing models. This paper adds to the literature by<!--> <!-->replacing static breakpoint assumptions with stochastic regime-switching and augmenting volatility modeling with macro-triggers. Practical implications are drawn for institutional investors to adopt regime-sensitive risk models to manage tail risks, while regulators can implement early-warning systems based on regime shifts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51430,"journal":{"name":"Research in International Business and Finance","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103295"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-07DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103296
Baogui Xin , Yuanrui Wang , Wei Peng , Hui Tan , Jiwon Kwon
Amid escalating climate risks and resource depletion, effective ESG practices are emerging as vital drivers for achieving energy justice. This study employs panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2009–2022) and a SYS-GMM estimation framework to examine the direct impact of ESG performance on energy justice, while also revealing green technological innovation as an essential mediating pathway. We further explore the pivotal moderating roles of Confucian cultural values, which promote ethical corporate behavior and curb greenwashing, and of digital finance, which enhances information transparency and alleviates financing constraints. Our findings indicate that the integration of robust ESG practices with cultural ethics and advanced digital financial systems not only improves energy efficiency and environmental quality but also fosters a more equitable distribution of energy resources. Overall, this research provides empirically grounded insights for policymakers and industry leaders aiming to craft sustainable strategies for a just energy transition.
{"title":"Advancing energy justice through ESG: The role of confucian culture and digital finance","authors":"Baogui Xin , Yuanrui Wang , Wei Peng , Hui Tan , Jiwon Kwon","doi":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103296","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103296","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid escalating climate risks and resource depletion, effective ESG practices are emerging as vital drivers for achieving energy justice. This study employs panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2009–2022) and a SYS-GMM estimation framework to examine the direct impact of ESG performance on energy justice, while also revealing green technological innovation as an essential mediating pathway. We further explore the pivotal moderating roles of Confucian cultural values, which promote ethical corporate behavior and curb greenwashing, and of digital finance, which enhances information transparency and alleviates financing constraints. Our findings indicate that the integration of robust ESG practices with cultural ethics and advanced digital financial systems not only improves energy efficiency and environmental quality but also fosters a more equitable distribution of energy resources. Overall, this research provides empirically grounded insights for policymakers and industry leaders aiming to craft sustainable strategies for a just energy transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51430,"journal":{"name":"Research in International Business and Finance","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103296"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145927979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-07DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103298
Jinchuan Li, Yifeng Zhu
In this paper, we examine the performance of 49 cryptocurrency market anomalies in terms of their in-sample, out-of-sample, and full sample performance following the work of Liu et al. (2022). We find that, despite the similarities in anomaly performance between the in-sample and overall sample periods, there are noticeable changes in the behavior of out-of-sample anomalies. This includes the disappearance of size effect and the appearance of left-tail risk effect. Consequently, by using the Iterative Double Selection Lasso method, we construct a new three-factor model — DS3, which consists of the market factor (MKT), the two-week momentum factor (MOM2), and the residual momentum factor (RMOM). In comparison to CPT3 (Liu et al., 2022) and IPCA3 (Bianchi and Babiak, 2025), our DS3 model exhibits a certain advantage in explaining anomalies.
在本文中，我们在刘等人（2022）的工作之后，从样本内、样本外和全样本性能方面检查了49个加密货币市场异常的表现。我们发现，尽管样本内和整体样本周期之间的异常表现相似，但样本外异常的行为却有明显的变化。这包括规模效应的消失和左尾风险效应的出现。因此，我们利用迭代双重选择套索方法构建了一个新的三因素模型——DS3，该模型由市场因素（MKT）、两周动量因素（MOM2）和剩余动量因素（RMOM）组成。与CPT3 （Liu et ., 2022）和IPCA3 （Bianchi and Babiak, 2025）相比，我们的DS3模型在解释异常方面具有一定的优势。
{"title":"Taming crypto anomalies: A Lasso-type factor model","authors":"Jinchuan Li, Yifeng Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103298","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103298","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we examine the performance of 49 cryptocurrency market anomalies in terms of their in-sample, out-of-sample, and full sample performance following the work of Liu et al. (2022). We find that, despite the similarities in anomaly performance between the in-sample and overall sample periods, there are noticeable changes in the behavior of out-of-sample anomalies. This includes the disappearance of size effect and the appearance of left-tail risk effect. Consequently, by using the Iterative Double Selection Lasso method, we construct a new three-factor model — DS3, which consists of the market factor (MKT), the two-week momentum factor (MOM2), and the residual momentum factor (RMOM). In comparison to CPT3 (Liu et al., 2022) and IPCA3 (Bianchi and Babiak, 2025), our DS3 model exhibits a certain advantage in explaining anomalies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51430,"journal":{"name":"Research in International Business and Finance","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103298"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-06DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103293
Zihao Ning , Zhibo Xu
This study examines how uncertainty in Chinese climate policies influences firms’ trade credit decisions. Using data from Chinese A-share listed companies between 2010 and 2022, we find that increased climate policy uncertainty is associated with reduced trade credit provision. These findings remain robust across various endogeneity tests and additional verification methods. Our analysis reveals that financial constraints, operating risk, and information opacity are three plausible channels through which climate policy uncertainty to inhibit trade credit provision. Furthermore, cross-sectional analyses demonstrate that this negative relationship is more pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises, firms with weak political connections, and companies operating in less competitive product markets. Overall, this paper advances the academic discourse on trade credit determinants and provides new insights into how climate policy uncertainty affects corporate credit provision decisions.
{"title":"Climate policy uncertainty and corporate trade credit provision","authors":"Zihao Ning , Zhibo Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103293","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103293","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how uncertainty in Chinese climate policies influences firms’ trade credit decisions. Using data from Chinese A-share listed companies between 2010 and 2022, we find that increased climate policy uncertainty is associated with reduced trade credit provision. These findings remain robust across various endogeneity tests and additional verification methods. Our analysis reveals that financial constraints, operating risk, and information opacity are three plausible channels through which climate policy uncertainty to inhibit trade credit provision. Furthermore, cross-sectional analyses demonstrate that this negative relationship is more pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises, firms with weak political connections, and companies operating in less competitive product markets. Overall, this paper advances the academic discourse on trade credit determinants and provides new insights into how climate policy uncertainty affects corporate credit provision decisions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51430,"journal":{"name":"Research in International Business and Finance","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103293"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145927980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-06DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103294
Cheoljun EOM , Yunsung EOM , Jong Won PARK
This study demonstrates that investor trading behavior influences the positive relationship between past intermediate prospect theory value (PTV) based on 12-month return distributions and expected returns. The predictive power of intermediate PTV portfolios is mainly driven by individual investors’ high trading activity, with foreign investors also contributing to it. Their effect arises from the opposite position: individuals show net selling (buying) in a high (low) PTV portfolio, whereas foreigners do the reverse. These patterns suggest that foreign investors’ trades align with the PTV’s predictive signals, unlike those of individuals. These findings offer behavioral insights into return predictability and provide a foundation for future investor-focused research.
{"title":"Investor trading behavior and intermediate prospect theory value in cross-sectional expected returns","authors":"Cheoljun EOM , Yunsung EOM , Jong Won PARK","doi":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103294","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103294","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study demonstrates that investor trading behavior influences the positive relationship between past intermediate prospect theory value (PTV) based on 12-month return distributions and expected returns. The predictive power of intermediate PTV portfolios is mainly driven by individual investors’ high trading activity, with foreign investors also contributing to it. Their effect arises from the opposite position: individuals show net selling (buying) in a high (low) PTV portfolio, whereas foreigners do the reverse. These patterns suggest that foreign investors’ trades align with the PTV’s predictive signals, unlike those of individuals. These findings offer behavioral insights into return predictability and provide a foundation for future investor-focused research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51430,"journal":{"name":"Research in International Business and Finance","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103294"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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