Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-25DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2026.102124
Ghizlen Ouasbaa , Josep Maria Raya
This paper studies the causal effects of platform-based rentals on housing affordability, market tightness, and foreclosure risk in Barcelona, distinguishing between short-term rentals (STRs) and medium-term rentals (MTRs). Using granular data from Airbnb and HomeAway, matched with housing transactions and foreclosure records, we estimate an instrumental variable model to identify the impact of STR and MTR activity on local housing outcomes. We find that an increase in the number of STR listings raises rents and reduces discounts, exacerbating affordability concerns, while being associated with lower foreclosure rates. In contrast, a rise in MTR listings is associated with lower rents, suggesting a reallocation of housing demand toward the medium-term segment and a moderation of pressure on the long-term rental market.
{"title":"Short-term vs. medium-term rentals: Rents, market tightness, and foreclosure effects","authors":"Ghizlen Ouasbaa , Josep Maria Raya","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2026.102124","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2026.102124","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the causal effects of platform-based rentals on housing affordability, market tightness, and foreclosure risk in Barcelona, distinguishing between short-term rentals (STRs) and medium-term rentals (MTRs). Using granular data from Airbnb and HomeAway, matched with housing transactions and foreclosure records, we estimate an instrumental variable model to identify the impact of STR and MTR activity on local housing outcomes. We find that an increase in the number of STR listings raises rents and reduces discounts, exacerbating affordability concerns, while being associated with lower foreclosure rates. In contrast, a rise in MTR listings is associated with lower rents, suggesting a reallocation of housing demand toward the medium-term segment and a moderation of pressure on the long-term rental market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 102124"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147421071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-29DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102101
Yoann Morin , Martin Regnaud , Marie-Laure Breuillé , Julie Le Gallo
We evaluate the impact of the rent control regulation implemented by the city of Paris in July 2019 on the Parisian rental market. We take advantage of the large amount of real-time data available on the SeLoger platform containing the ads published by professional realtors. Using a database of 559,300 observations from January 2018 to June 2023, we apply a difference-in-differences model, where control units are located in eight major French cities in which the rental market is particularly tense but not regulated during the analysis period. We show that the rent control policy decreased rents by 3.7% to 4.2% in Paris on average. Yet, the effect of the policy is heterogeneous depending on dwelling characteristics, with a stronger effect on small apartments. We also estimate the upper bound of the effectiveness of the policy and show that if every dwelling respected the rent control, rents would have decreased by 8.2% to 8.7%. We confirm the effectiveness of the rent control policy by extending the analysis to five additional regulated cities using a staggered difference-in-differences strategy, which reinforces the external validity of our findings. Finally, we examine whether the policy affected the supply of rental housing, proxied by the number of new listings published by agencies. We find no evidence of a decline in supply attributable to the rent control.
{"title":"PARIS2019: The impact of rent control on the Parisian rental market","authors":"Yoann Morin , Martin Regnaud , Marie-Laure Breuillé , Julie Le Gallo","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102101","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102101","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We evaluate the impact of the rent control regulation implemented by the city of Paris in July 2019 on the Parisian rental market. We take advantage of the large amount of real-time data available on the SeLoger platform containing the ads published by professional realtors. Using a database of 559,300 observations from January 2018 to June 2023, we apply a difference-in-differences model, where control units are located in eight major French cities in which the rental market is particularly tense but not regulated during the analysis period. We show that the rent control policy decreased rents by 3.7% to 4.2% in Paris on average. Yet, the effect of the policy is heterogeneous depending on dwelling characteristics, with a stronger effect on small apartments. We also estimate the upper bound of the effectiveness of the policy and show that if every dwelling respected the rent control, rents would have decreased by 8.2% to 8.7%. We confirm the effectiveness of the rent control policy by extending the analysis to five additional regulated cities using a staggered difference-in-differences strategy, which reinforces the external validity of our findings. Finally, we examine whether the policy affected the supply of rental housing, proxied by the number of new listings published by agencies. We find no evidence of a decline in supply attributable to the rent control.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 102101"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145227063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-08-23DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102089
Ronan C. Lyons , Éamonn Sweeney
Housing is one of the most politically salient issues in high-income countries, with an increasing focus on the determinants and responsiveness of supply and on policy options such as upzoning and use-by-right. This paper examines the determinants of the duration between receiving planning consent and commencing construction (activation), and between commencing construction and completion of new housing units (build-out). A simple economic model, incorporating uncertainty around planning decisions as well as capital costs and payment structures, generates four propositions. These are then taken to a new and detailed database of 83,000 residential units across 5,300 proposed developments in Dublin, Ireland for the period 2018–2023, with rich information on project, site and firm characteristics. The setting includes a baseline discretionary planning system and two more rules-based planning codes for certain projects. We find empirical support for all four propositions from theory, including clear evidence that, where systems of land use regulation are more certain, activation times are shorter. These findings have considerable relevance for policies that seek to increase housing supply.
{"title":"Time to build: Rules-based planning and construction project duration in Dublin","authors":"Ronan C. Lyons , Éamonn Sweeney","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102089","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102089","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Housing is one of the most politically salient issues in high-income countries, with an increasing focus on the determinants and responsiveness of supply and on policy options such as upzoning and use-by-right. This paper examines the determinants of the duration between receiving planning consent and commencing construction (activation), and between commencing construction and completion of new housing units (build-out). A simple economic model, incorporating uncertainty around planning decisions as well as capital costs and payment structures, generates four propositions. These are then taken to a new and detailed database of 83,000 residential units across 5,300 proposed developments in Dublin, Ireland for the period 2018–2023, with rich information on project, site and firm characteristics. The setting includes a baseline discretionary planning system and two more rules-based planning codes for certain projects. We find empirical support for all four propositions from theory, including clear evidence that, where systems of land use regulation are more certain, activation times are shorter. These findings have considerable relevance for policies that seek to increase housing supply.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 102089"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145106346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-11-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102104
Nicholas Forster-Benson, Karim Nchare
Empirical research on the impact of upzoning policies on housing affordability has produced mixed results. This paper uses difference-in-differences and matching methods to analyze the effects of the 2010 upzoning of downtown Nashville over the period 2000–2023. We find a significant increase in the average price of the treated parcels relative to similar untreated parcels. Estimated quantile treatment effects reveal that price decreases are concentrated at the upper end of the house price distribution, while upzoned parcels at the lower end experience price increases due to positive amenities and retained investment. Our findings underscore the importance of considering heterogeneity when designing and evaluating upzoning policies.
{"title":"Upzoning and residential transaction price in Nashville","authors":"Nicholas Forster-Benson, Karim Nchare","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102104","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102104","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Empirical research on the impact of upzoning policies on housing affordability has produced mixed results. This paper uses difference-in-differences and matching methods to analyze the effects of the 2010 upzoning of downtown Nashville over the period 2000–2023. We find a significant increase in the average price of the treated parcels relative to similar untreated parcels. Estimated quantile treatment effects reveal that price decreases are concentrated at the upper end of the house price distribution, while upzoned parcels at the lower end experience price increases due to positive amenities and retained investment. Our findings underscore the importance of considering heterogeneity when designing and evaluating upzoning policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 102104"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145578861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-10DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102102
Wenhao Hu , Lili Wang
This paper evaluates the impact of subway expansion on urban spatial structure, population size, and welfare in the presence of land use regulation. We utilize a newly-constructed, spatially-disaggregated dataset for Beijing and a spatial equilibrium model that incorporates endogenous location choices within a city and frictional migration across cities. Our quantitative study reveals that subway expansion contributes to residential population decentralization, city size expansion, and overall welfare gains. Beijing’s new subway lines from 2011 to 2020 resulted in an 8.42% increase in suburban residential population, a 2.71% increase in total population, and a 2.62% increase in welfare. However, land use policies restrict housing supply around subway stations, hinder workers’ relocation to capitalize on improved commuting convenience, and dampen the wider benefits from transit systems. The gains in total population and welfare from subway expansion will be amplified if there is an increased supply of floor space around subway stations. Our research highlights the necessity of pursuing unified transit and land use policies to build a bigger and better city.
{"title":"Building the metropolis: Subway expansion, land use regulation, and welfare","authors":"Wenhao Hu , Lili Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102102","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102102","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper evaluates the impact of subway expansion on urban spatial structure, population size, and welfare in the presence of land use regulation. We utilize a newly-constructed, spatially-disaggregated dataset for Beijing and a spatial equilibrium model that incorporates endogenous location choices within a city and frictional migration across cities. Our quantitative study reveals that subway expansion contributes to residential population decentralization, city size expansion, and overall welfare gains. Beijing’s new subway lines from 2011 to 2020 resulted in an 8.42% increase in suburban residential population, a 2.71% increase in total population, and a 2.62% increase in welfare. However, land use policies restrict housing supply around subway stations, hinder workers’ relocation to capitalize on improved commuting convenience, and dampen the wider benefits from transit systems. The gains in total population and welfare from subway expansion will be amplified if there is an increased supply of floor space around subway stations. Our research highlights the necessity of pursuing unified transit and land use policies to build a bigger and better city.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 102102"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145333150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-29DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102099
Tom Gillespie , Janez Kren , Ronan C. Lyons , Conor O’Toole
We use the introduction of rent stabilisation measures in Ireland after 2016, and their tightening in 2021, to understand the impact of these policies on the supply of rental housing and whether the policies caused properties to exit the sector. We use a district-level quarterly panel 2010–2023 to estimate whether there were market exits by landlords, in particular an increase in sale listings and a decrease in rental activity, after rent controls were applied. Rental activity is measured using both online listings and official tenancy registrations, with further data on room rentals. Our analysis focuses on comparing the rental (or sale) supply on either side of the boundaries within which rent controls applied. Our identification using a regression discontinuity-style approach which limits the sample to specific geographic distances to the border to control for confounding factors. We also control for housing market and wider economic conditions. Across all specifications, we find evidence of exit from the rental market, specifically after rent controls were tightened in 2021: rent controls are associated with more sale listings and fewer rental listings/registrations. The negative impact of rent controls on room rental listings is, likewise, consistent with market exit rather than simply reduced mobility.
{"title":"The supply side effects of rent controls: Evidence from Ireland","authors":"Tom Gillespie , Janez Kren , Ronan C. Lyons , Conor O’Toole","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102099","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102099","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use the introduction of rent stabilisation measures in Ireland after 2016, and their tightening in 2021, to understand the impact of these policies on the supply of rental housing and whether the policies caused properties to exit the sector. We use a district-level quarterly panel 2010–2023 to estimate whether there were market exits by landlords, in particular an increase in sale listings and a decrease in rental activity, after rent controls were applied. Rental activity is measured using both online listings and official tenancy registrations, with further data on room rentals. Our analysis focuses on comparing the rental (or sale) supply on either side of the boundaries within which rent controls applied. Our identification using a regression discontinuity-style approach which limits the sample to specific geographic distances to the border to control for confounding factors. We also control for housing market and wider economic conditions. Across all specifications, we find evidence of exit from the rental market, specifically after rent controls were tightened in 2021: rent controls are associated with more sale listings and fewer rental listings/registrations. The negative impact of rent controls on room rental listings is, likewise, consistent with market exit rather than simply reduced mobility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 102099"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145333151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-14DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102100
Sandra Newman, C. Scott Holupka
Housing affordability is the most prevalent housing problem jeopardizing the well-being of low-income children. In this paper, we attempt to estimate the net effects of the affordability feature of assisted housing on children’s healthy development measured by cognitive achievement, overall health and socioemotional adjustment. Using a quasi-experimental design, we focus on children ages 0–17 using longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics address-matched to HUD administrative data, enriched with multiply imputed housing and neighborhood measures from the AHS and linked to census tract measures via geocodes. Methodological innovations include estimating a series of treatment strategies to address the positivity assumption that the comparison group is always income-eligible for assistance and addressing likely crossovers by estimating a series of target trials. We use two methods, Oster’s delta and VanderWeele’s E-value, to test the robustness of results. We find that children who spend part of childhood in assisted housing have greater cognitive achievement and better overall health compared to their unassisted counterparts. Assisted housing also improves children’s socioemotional adjustment indirectly by improving parenting quality, which, in turn, improves child adjustment. Affordability appears to drive results.
{"title":"Assisted housing and healthy child development","authors":"Sandra Newman, C. Scott Holupka","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102100","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102100","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Housing affordability is the most prevalent housing problem jeopardizing the well-being of low-income children. In this paper, we attempt to estimate the net effects of the affordability feature of assisted housing on children’s healthy development measured by cognitive achievement, overall health and socioemotional adjustment. Using a quasi-experimental design, we focus on children ages 0–17 using longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics address-matched to HUD administrative data, enriched with multiply imputed housing and neighborhood measures from the AHS and linked to census tract measures via geocodes. Methodological innovations include estimating a series of treatment strategies to address the positivity assumption that the comparison group is always income-eligible for assistance and addressing likely crossovers by estimating a series of target trials. We use two methods, Oster’s delta and VanderWeele’s E-value, to test the robustness of results. We find that children who spend part of childhood in assisted housing have greater cognitive achievement and better overall health compared to their unassisted counterparts. Assisted housing also improves children’s socioemotional adjustment indirectly by improving parenting quality, which, in turn, improves child adjustment. Affordability appears to drive results.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 102100"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145333152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-08-24DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102087
Syed M. Hasan , Adeel Tariq , Rabia Saeed , Abubakar Memon
This paper presents the first impact evaluation of recent upzoning reforms in Lahore, Pakistan - a megacity with a population of approximately 13 million. Leveraging data from Pakistan’s largest online property platform and nationally representative labor force surveys, we provide causal evidence that the 2020 policy reform permitting vertical development led to a significant increase in property prices within upzoned areas. Specifically, we find that upzoning increased property prices by at least 8.4 percent after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity within the city and hedonic attributes of properties. We also find compelling evidence of gentrification in upzoned neighborhoods: the likelihood of residents with higher wages, being literate, and having completed higher education increases as a result of upzoning. While upzoning does not affect the probability of working, it does increase the probability of working as a professional/manager or being employed in the tertiary sector. These patterns point to a marked shift in the socioeconomic composition of upzoned areas, aligning with the broader literature on gentrification as an unintended consequence of relaxation in land-use regulations. The effects of upzoning appear to be geographically contained, with no evidence of spillovers into adjacent areas. Owing to the inelastic nature of housing supply and data constraints, the study does not evaluate the policy’s effect on housing stock expansion. Nevertheless, this study offers novel evidence from a developing country context, where empirical research on upzoning remains scarce. The findings have important implications for housing affordability policy and the design of complementary public infrastructure to support upzoning reforms.
{"title":"Inclusive growth or displacement? Examining upzoning and gentrification in Lahore, Pakistan","authors":"Syed M. Hasan , Adeel Tariq , Rabia Saeed , Abubakar Memon","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102087","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102087","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents the first impact evaluation of recent upzoning reforms in Lahore, Pakistan - a megacity with a population of approximately 13 million. Leveraging data from Pakistan’s largest online property platform and nationally representative labor force surveys, we provide causal evidence that the 2020 policy reform permitting vertical development led to a significant increase in property prices within upzoned areas. Specifically, we find that upzoning increased property prices by at least 8.4 percent after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity within the city and hedonic attributes of properties. We also find compelling evidence of gentrification in upzoned neighborhoods: the likelihood of residents with higher wages, being literate, and having completed higher education increases as a result of upzoning. While upzoning does not affect the probability of working, it does increase the probability of working as a professional/manager or being employed in the tertiary sector. These patterns point to a marked shift in the socioeconomic composition of upzoned areas, aligning with the broader literature on gentrification as an unintended consequence of relaxation in land-use regulations. The effects of upzoning appear to be geographically contained, with no evidence of spillovers into adjacent areas. Owing to the inelastic nature of housing supply and data constraints, the study does not evaluate the policy’s effect on housing stock expansion. Nevertheless, this study offers novel evidence from a developing country context, where empirical research on upzoning remains scarce. The findings have important implications for housing affordability policy and the design of complementary public infrastructure to support upzoning reforms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 102087"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144989980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-03DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102091
Andreas Benedictow , Erling Røed Larsen , Dag Martin Sundelius
We examine the relationship between price changes and unsold rates in the Norwegian housing market within a Phillips curve framework. We find clear evidence of the existence of a Phillips curve in Oslo and three other Norwegian cities since price changes and unsold rates are negatively associated. There are some indications that price changes may lead the unsold rate in Oslo, although this is not consistent across the other three cities. We present a skeleton model in which house price changes may, or may not, move before the unsold rate, depending upon the appreciation rate. Data on individual sellers and buyers support the hypothesis that the propensity to hold two houses is pro-cyclical in Oslo.
{"title":"Estimating a housing Phillips curve: Evidence from Norway","authors":"Andreas Benedictow , Erling Røed Larsen , Dag Martin Sundelius","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102091","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102091","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the relationship between price changes and unsold rates in the Norwegian housing market within a Phillips curve framework. We find clear evidence of the existence of a Phillips curve in Oslo and three other Norwegian cities since price changes and unsold rates are negatively associated. There are some indications that price changes may lead the unsold rate in Oslo, although this is not consistent across the other three cities. We present a skeleton model in which house price changes may, or may not, move before the unsold rate, depending upon the appreciation rate. Data on individual sellers and buyers support the hypothesis that the propensity to hold two houses is pro-cyclical in Oslo.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 102091"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145020214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-07-09DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102081
Brian Adams , Randal Verbrugge
Housing rents are a large share of household budgets and make a large contribution to overall inflation. Hence rent measurement accuracy is necessary in these and other contexts. The location–location–location hypothesis suggests that rents within a neighborhood would grow at the same rate on average; prior research has both theoretically assumed, and empirically supported, this hypothesis. We show that, even within the same neighborhoods, rent inflation rates for different types of housing units often differ for years. Over the 2010s, apartment rents generally outpaced detached unit rents; this pattern reversed during the COVID-19 pandemic—providing nuance to prevailing narratives about the latter period, most of which are location-specific. These dynamics suggest that structural representativity is necessary for rent index accuracy and accurate inflation measurement. Even indexes based on careful geographical sampling, such as the United States Consumer Price Index’s (CPI’s) Owners’ Equivalent Rent component prior to 2023, may be biased by placing too much weight on apartment rents compared to detached unit rents. We demonstrate that this bias may be quite large, and offer recommendations — one of which was recently accepted by the CPI.
{"title":"Location, location, structure type: Rent divergence within neighborhoods","authors":"Brian Adams , Randal Verbrugge","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102081","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102081","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Housing rents are a large share of household budgets and make a large contribution to overall inflation. Hence rent measurement accuracy is necessary in these and other contexts. The location–location–location hypothesis suggests that rents within a neighborhood would grow at the same rate on average; prior research has both theoretically assumed, and empirically supported, this hypothesis. We show that, even within the same neighborhoods, rent inflation rates for different types of housing units often differ for years. Over the 2010s, apartment rents generally outpaced detached unit rents; this pattern reversed during the COVID-19 pandemic—providing nuance to prevailing narratives about the latter period, most of which are location-specific. These dynamics suggest that structural representativity is necessary for rent index accuracy and accurate inflation measurement. Even indexes based on careful geographical sampling, such as the United States Consumer Price Index’s (CPI’s) Owners’ Equivalent Rent component prior to 2023, may be biased by placing too much weight on apartment rents compared to detached unit rents. We demonstrate that this bias may be quite large, and offer recommendations — one of which was recently accepted by the CPI.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 102081"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144655740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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