Journal of Housing Economics最新文献

英文中文

Assisted housing and healthy child development 协助住房和儿童健康发展

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102100

Sandra Newman, C. Scott Holupka

Housing affordability is the most prevalent housing problem jeopardizing the well-being of low-income children. In this paper, we attempt to estimate the net effects of the affordability feature of assisted housing on children’s healthy development measured by cognitive achievement, overall health and socioemotional adjustment. Using a quasi-experimental design, we focus on children ages 0–17 using longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics address-matched to HUD administrative data, enriched with multiply imputed housing and neighborhood measures from the AHS and linked to census tract measures via geocodes. Methodological innovations include estimating a series of treatment strategies to address the positivity assumption that the comparison group is always income-eligible for assistance and addressing likely crossovers by estimating a series of target trials. We use two methods, Oster’s delta and VanderWeele’s E-value, to test the robustness of results. We find that children who spend part of childhood in assisted housing have greater cognitive achievement and better overall health compared to their unassisted counterparts. Assisted housing also improves children’s socioemotional adjustment indirectly by improving parenting quality, which, in turn, improves child adjustment. Affordability appears to drive results.

住房负担能力是危害低收入儿童福祉的最普遍的住房问题。在本文中，我们试图通过认知成就、整体健康和社会情绪适应来评估援助住房的可负担性特征对儿童健康发展的净影响。采用准实验设计，我们将重点放在0-17岁的儿童上，使用来自收入动态小组研究的纵向数据，这些数据与HUD管理数据相匹配，丰富了来自AHS的多重估算住房和社区措施，并通过地理编码与人口普查区措施相关联。方法上的创新包括估计一系列治疗策略，以解决积极假设，即对照组总是有资格获得援助，并通过估计一系列目标试验来解决可能的交叉问题。我们使用Oster 's delta和VanderWeele 's E-value两种方法来检验结果的稳健性。我们发现，与没有得到帮助的孩子相比，在辅助住房中度过部分童年的孩子有更高的认知成就和更好的整体健康状况。辅助住房也通过提高父母教养的质量间接地改善儿童的社会情绪适应，而父母教养的质量反过来又提高儿童的适应能力。负担能力似乎推动了结果。

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引用次数: 0

Estimating a housing Phillips curve: Evidence from Norway 估计住房菲利普斯曲线：来自挪威的证据

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102091

Andreas Benedictow , Erling Røed Larsen , Dag Martin Sundelius

We examine the relationship between price changes and unsold rates in the Norwegian housing market within a Phillips curve framework. We find clear evidence of the existence of a Phillips curve in Oslo and three other Norwegian cities since price changes and unsold rates are negatively associated. There are some indications that price changes may lead the unsold rate in Oslo, although this is not consistent across the other three cities. We present a skeleton model in which house price changes may, or may not, move before the unsold rate, depending upon the appreciation rate. Data on individual sellers and buyers support the hypothesis that the propensity to hold two houses is pro-cyclical in Oslo.

我们在菲利普斯曲线框架内研究了挪威住房市场价格变化与未售出率之间的关系。我们在奥斯陆和其他三个挪威城市发现了菲利普斯曲线存在的明确证据，因为价格变化和未售出率呈负相关。有一些迹象表明，价格变化可能导致奥斯陆的未售出率，尽管其他三个城市的情况并不一致。我们提出了一个框架模型，其中房价变化可能会或可能不会在未售出率之前移动，这取决于升值率。关于个人卖家和买家的数据支持这样的假设：在奥斯陆，持有两套房子的倾向是顺周期的。

引用次数: 0

Inclusive growth or displacement? Examining upzoning and gentrification in Lahore, Pakistan 包容性增长还是替代？考察巴基斯坦拉合尔的分区升级和中产阶级化

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102087

Syed M. Hasan , Adeel Tariq , Rabia Saeed , Abubakar Memon

This paper presents the first impact evaluation of recent upzoning reforms in Lahore, Pakistan - a megacity with a population of approximately 13 million. Leveraging data from Pakistan’s largest online property platform and nationally representative labor force surveys, we provide causal evidence that the 2020 policy reform permitting vertical development led to a significant increase in property prices within upzoned areas. Specifically, we find that upzoning increased property prices by at least 8.4 percent after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity within the city and hedonic attributes of properties. We also find compelling evidence of gentrification in upzoned neighborhoods: the likelihood of residents with higher wages, being literate, and having completed higher education increases as a result of upzoning. While upzoning does not affect the probability of working, it does increase the probability of working as a professional/manager or being employed in the tertiary sector. These patterns point to a marked shift in the socioeconomic composition of upzoned areas, aligning with the broader literature on gentrification as an unintended consequence of relaxation in land-use regulations. The effects of upzoning appear to be geographically contained, with no evidence of spillovers into adjacent areas. Owing to the inelastic nature of housing supply and data constraints, the study does not evaluate the policy’s effect on housing stock expansion. Nevertheless, this study offers novel evidence from a developing country context, where empirical research on upzoning remains scarce. The findings have important implications for housing affordability policy and the design of complementary public infrastructure to support upzoning reforms.

本文首次对巴基斯坦拉合尔（一个人口约为1300万的特大城市）最近的分区升级改革进行了影响评估。利用巴基斯坦最大的在线房地产平台和具有全国代表性的劳动力调查数据，我们提供了因果证据，证明2020年允许垂直发展的政策改革导致区划区域内房地产价格大幅上涨。具体来说，我们发现，在控制了城市内部未观察到的异质性和房产的享乐属性之后，升级分区使房地产价格至少上涨了8.4%。我们还发现了分区升级社区中产阶级化的令人信服的证据：由于分区升级，居民收入更高、识字、完成高等教育的可能性增加。虽然分区升级并不影响工作的可能性，但它确实增加了成为专业人士/经理或受雇于第三产业的可能性。这些模式表明，分区后地区的社会经济构成发生了显著变化，这与更广泛的文献一致，即土地使用法规放松的意外后果是中产阶级化。分区升级的影响在地理上似乎是可控的，没有证据表明它会溢出到邻近地区。由于住房供应的非弹性和数据的限制，本研究没有评估政策对住房存量扩张的影响。然而，本研究提供了来自发展中国家背景下的新证据，在发展中国家，关于升级的实证研究仍然很少。研究结果对住房负担能力政策和配套公共基础设施的设计具有重要意义，以支持分区升级改革。

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引用次数: 0

Time to build: Rules-based planning and construction project duration in Dublin 建造时间：都柏林基于规则的规划和建筑项目工期

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102089

Ronan C. Lyons , Éamonn Sweeney

Housing is one of the most politically salient issues in high-income countries, with an increasing focus on the determinants and responsiveness of supply and on policy options such as upzoning and use-by-right. This paper examines the determinants of the duration between receiving planning consent and commencing construction (activation), and between commencing construction and completion of new housing units (build-out). A simple economic model, incorporating uncertainty around planning decisions as well as capital costs and payment structures, generates four propositions. These are then taken to a new and detailed database of 83,000 residential units across 5,300 proposed developments in Dublin, Ireland for the period 2018–2023, with rich information on project, site and firm characteristics. The setting includes a baseline discretionary planning system and two more rules-based planning codes for certain projects. We find empirical support for all four propositions from theory, including clear evidence that, where systems of land use regulation are more certain, activation times are shorter. These findings have considerable relevance for policies that seek to increase housing supply.

住房是高收入国家政治上最突出的问题之一，人们越来越关注住房供应的决定因素和反应能力，以及诸如升级规划和按权使用等政策选择。本文考察了从获得规划许可到开始建设（激活），以及从开始建设到完成新住房单元（扩建）之间持续时间的决定因素。一个简单的经济模型，将规划决策、资本成本和支付结构的不确定性纳入其中，产生了四个命题。然后，这些数据被带到一个新的详细数据库中，该数据库包含2018-2023年期间爱尔兰都柏林5300个拟议开发项目的83,000个住宅单元，其中包含有关项目、场地和公司特征的丰富信息。该设置包括一个基线自由规划系统和针对某些项目的另外两个基于规则的规划代码。我们从理论中找到了对所有四个命题的实证支持，包括明确的证据表明，在土地使用监管系统更确定的地方，激活时间更短。这些发现对寻求增加住房供应的政策具有相当大的相关性。

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引用次数: 0

Upzoning and redevelopment: The details matter 升级和重建：细节很重要

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102078

Jens von Bergmann , Thomas Davidoff , Nathan Lauster , Tsur Somerville

Facing worsening housing affordability, policymakers in a growing number of jurisdictions have heeded economists’ calls for increases in supply through relaxing land use restrictions, particularly on maximum allowed density and increases in the number of units allowed on a single lot. While floor space or floor area ratios (FSR or FAR) and unit count per lot are indicators of the potential for density, local governments have many levers to control the volume, type, and pace of new construction. In this paper, we compare changes in land prices and the pace of redevelopment following two similar, moderate density upzonings (up to four units per lot) of single family neighborhoods in the province of British Columbia (Canada). The upzoning in the City of Kelowna resulted in considerable new construction of higher density residential units as well as a significant increase in lot prices in the upzoned area relative to nearby areas with status quo zoning. In contrast, though the changes in allowed density were nearly identical, in Coquitlam there has been minimal uptake of new multiplex options and no discernible land lift in response to upzoning. We highlight the importance of other regulatory levers that are easy for analysts to miss in contributing to these different outcomes. The Kelowna upzoning was matched with an expedited development permit process for as-of-right fourplexes. In contrast, the Coquitlam rezoning did not alter the city’s lengthy development permit process required to build beyond the baseline duplex. Kelowna’s upzoning also required less parking than Coquitlam’s. An assessment of the regulatory environment relying on the presence of the upzoning alone would miss the alteration to process (or absence thereof) that appear to have had a significant effect across the two municipalities in whether zoning changes led to actual new construction.

面对日益恶化的住房负担能力，越来越多的司法管辖区的政策制定者听从了经济学家的呼吁，通过放松土地使用限制来增加供应，尤其是在最大允许密度和增加单块土地上允许的单位数量方面。虽然建筑面积或容积率（FSR或FAR）和每一块土地的单位数是潜在密度的指标，但地方政府有很多手段来控制新建筑的数量、类型和速度。在本文中，我们比较了不列颠哥伦比亚省（加拿大）的两个类似的中等密度的单户社区的土地价格变化和重建速度，每地块最多四个单元。基洛纳市的分区升级导致了大量高密度住宅单元的新建设，并且与现有分区的附近地区相比，分区升级地区的地段价格大幅上涨。相比之下，虽然允许密度的变化几乎相同，但在高贵林，很少采用新的多厅选择，也没有明显的土地抬升来应对分区升级。我们强调了其他监管杠杆的重要性，这些杠杆在促成这些不同结果方面很容易被分析师忽视。基洛纳的分区升级与加速开发许可程序相匹配，以获得四层住宅的权利。相比之下，高贵林的重新规划并没有改变该市冗长的开发许可程序，该程序要求在基线复式公寓之外进行建设。与高贵林相比，基洛纳的升级区需要的停车位也更少。对监管环境的评估只依赖于分区升级的存在，会忽略流程的改变（或不改变），这似乎对两个城市的分区变化是否导致实际的新建筑产生了重大影响。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating shifting tides: Time-varying monetary policy spillovers in core-peripheral housing markets in the Euro area 驾驭变化的潮流：欧元区核心和外围住房市场的时变货币政策溢出效应

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102090

Shu-hen Chiang , Sandy Suardi , Chien-Fu Chen

This study examines the spillover effects of a unified monetary policy on core and peripheral housing markets in the Euro Area, utilizing augmented spillover accounting techniques developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009). Our estimation results reveal significant core-peripheral differences: core countries experience stronger and more immediate spillovers from monetary policy, especially during the unconventional period following the 2008 global financial crisis and events such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In contrast, peripheral countries exhibit a slower, more moderate response, thereby remaining relatively insulated from policy-driven systemic risks. This underscores the varying impacts of monetary policy on housing stability across the Euro Area, highlighting the need for tailored policy responses.

本研究利用Diebold和Yilmaz（2009）开发的增强溢出会计技术，考察了统一货币政策对欧元区核心和外围住房市场的溢出效应。我们的估计结果揭示了核心国家与外围国家之间的显著差异：核心国家经历了更强、更直接的货币政策溢出效应，尤其是在2008年全球金融危机和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰等事件之后的非常规时期。相比之下，外围国家表现出更缓慢、更温和的反应，因此相对不受政策驱动的系统性风险的影响。这凸显了货币政策对整个欧元区住房稳定的不同影响，凸显了制定量身定制的政策回应的必要性。

引用次数: 0

Transactions tax change during the pandemic: A study of the UK housing market 大流行期间的交易税变化：对英国住房市场的研究

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102088

Qiulin Ke , Bing Zhu , Michael White , Bin Chi

During the Covid-19 pandemic, the UK government reduced the transaction tax on house sales, i.e., the Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) rate, to stimulate the housing market. Based on a difference-in-difference framework and over 400,000 repeat sale transactions, we find a significantly positive impact of the tax holiday on both home prices and trading volumes. On a national scale, on average, 79.92 % of the surplus generated by the holiday accrued to buyers, accompanied by a noticeable level (10.27 %) of welfare loss. Regional analysis validates the leverage channel, revealing that transaction prices and volumes respond significantly more in areas with severe liquidity constraints. This finding underscores the effectiveness of tax reductions in easing down-payment constraints, thereby enabling more households to become homeowners. However, the resulting upward pressure on prices reduces the net benefit for buyers and exacerbates market inefficiencies. The potential downsides should not be overlooked, particularly in areas with tighter liquidity constraints and lower housing affordability.

在新冠肺炎疫情期间，英国政府降低了房屋销售的交易税，即印花税土地税（SDLT）税率，以刺激房地产市场。基于差中差框架和超过40万的重复销售交易，我们发现免税期对房价和交易量都有显著的积极影响。在全国范围内，平均而言，79.92%的假期产生的盈余归买家所有，伴随着明显的福利损失（10.27%）。区域分析验证了杠杆渠道，发现在流动性约束严重的地区，交易价格和交易量的响应明显更大。这一发现强调了减税在缓解首付限制方面的有效性，从而使更多的家庭成为房主。然而，由此产生的价格上行压力降低了买家的净收益，加剧了市场的低效。潜在的负面影响不应被忽视，特别是在流动性限制更严格、住房负担能力较低的地区。

引用次数: 0

Relisting, agent switching, and sale outcomes in the housing market 房屋市场的重新上市、代理转换和销售结果

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102086

Darren K. Hayunga , William Swymer

Single-family homes do not always sell during their initial listing contract. This study investigates how relisting a home–whether with the same or a different agent–affects transaction prices and marketing durations, using over 670,000 sales from 2000 to 2019, including nearly 45,000 relistings. We find that outcomes are shaped by the housing market phase, off-market gap between listings, and relisting type (expired vs. canceled). Relistings during the Peak phase (May 2005–March 2006) yield positive price effects, while other periods exhibit largely discounts. Short off-market gaps (0–7 days) lead to longer total marketing periods, suggesting market skepticism of superficial resets. In contrast, longer gaps (31–180 days) reduce total marketing durations, consistent with a new buyer pool or home renovations. Representation changes following expirations generate modest price gains, contrasting prior findings. Overall, relisting should not be viewed as a uniform signal of failure but as a strategic action shaped by timing and listing history.

单户住宅并不总是在其最初的上市合同期间出售。这项研究调查了重新上市房屋（无论是通过同一家还是不同的代理商）如何影响交易价格和营销持续时间，使用了2000年至2019年的67万多笔销售，其中包括近4.5万笔重新上市。我们发现，结果受住房市场阶段、上市之间的场外差距和重新上市类型（过期vs取消）的影响。在高峰阶段（2005年5月至2006年3月）重新上市会产生积极的价格效应，而其他时期则表现出很大的折扣。短期的市场外缺口（0-7天）导致更长的总营销周期，这表明市场对表面重置持怀疑态度。相比之下，较长的间隔（31-180天）缩短了总营销时间，这与新买家群体或家庭装修一致。与之前的研究结果相比，到期后的代表性变化会产生适度的价格上涨。总体而言，重新上市不应被视为一种统一的失败信号，而应被视为一种受时机和上市历史影响的战略行动。

引用次数: 0

The amplifying effect of spatial planning restrictions on house prices and rents 空间规划限制对房价和租金的放大效应

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102085

Simon Büchler , Vera Götze , Lukas Hauck , Nicola Stalder

This paper examines how spatial planning restrictions shape housing cost responses to demand shocks. Using a detailed micro-level dataset from Switzerland, we analyze the effects of land reserves, density limits, refusal rates, and overall regulatory constraints. Our dynamic model shows that stricter planning regulations significantly amplify housing cost growth, with stronger effects on house prices than rents. We validate these findings using a Bartik-style instrumental variable strategy. The paper contributes to the literature by jointly analyzing prices and rents and identifying amplification effects across distinct regulatory tools. While based on Swiss data, the underlying institutional features, local control, and strong demand are common elsewhere, making the findings broadly relevant.

本文考察了空间规划限制如何影响住房成本对需求冲击的反应。利用瑞士详细的微观数据集，我们分析了土地储备、密度限制、拒绝率和总体监管约束的影响。我们的动态模型显示，更严格的规划法规显著放大了住房成本的增长，对房价的影响强于对租金的影响。我们使用bartik风格的工具变量策略来验证这些发现。本文通过联合分析价格和租金，并确定不同监管工具之间的放大效应，为文献做出了贡献。虽然基于瑞士的数据，但潜在的制度特征、地方控制和强劲需求在其他地方也很普遍，因此研究结果具有广泛的相关性。

引用次数: 0

Nominal loss aversion and equity constraints in house price determination: Empirical evidence in the absence of down-payment constraints 名义损失厌恶和股权约束在房价决定中的作用：缺乏首付约束的经验证据

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102084

Joep Steegmans , Wolter Hassink

The paper investigates the effects of nominal loss aversion and equity constraints on house prices in a market without down-payment constraints or strategic defaults. Using extensive house transaction data of owner-occupied family homes from the Netherlands in combination with administrative microdata, the results show that the price effect of nominal loss aversion is about twice the size of the effect of negative equity. List price regressions provide evidence that higher transaction prices are obtained by setting higher list prices. Thereby the paper presents new evidence that nominal loss aversion and equity constraints lead to market premiums.

本文研究了在没有首付限制和战略违约的情况下，名义损失厌恶和股权约束对房价的影响。利用荷兰自住家庭住宅的大量房屋交易数据，结合行政微观数据，研究结果表明，名义损失厌恶的价格效应大约是负资产效应的两倍。目录价格回归提供了通过设定更高的目录价格来获得更高交易价格的证据。因此，本文提出了名义损失规避和股权约束导致市场溢价的新证据。

引用次数: 0

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