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Driving restriction boundary and housing prices 驱动限制边界和房价
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102083
Yichuan Zhang , Tianyun Zhu
This paper investigates the boundary effect of a nonlocal-license-plate-based driving restriction policy on the housing market of Shenzhen, China. Combining the difference-in-differences framework with the boundary discontinuity design, we find that the driving restriction policy on average led to a 6.36% increase in the housing price of the restricted zone. We also find that after the driving restriction boundary was removed and expanded, the observed increase in the housing price disparity across the initial boundary diminished. This paper presents the first empirical evidence on the heterogeneous effect of a driving restriction on housing prices across the driving restriction boundary.
本文研究了深圳非本地牌照限行政策对房地产市场的边界效应。结合差中差框架和边界不连续设计,我们发现限行政策导致限行区房价平均上涨6.36%。我们还发现,在取消和扩大驾驶限制边界后,观察到的房价差异在初始边界上的增加减小了。本文首次提出了跨越驾驶限制边界的驾驶限制对房价异质性影响的实证证据。
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引用次数: 0
Location, location, structure type: Rent divergence within neighborhoods 区位、区位、结构类型:小区内租金分化
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102081
Brian Adams , Randal Verbrugge
Housing rents are a large share of household budgets and make a large contribution to overall inflation. Hence rent measurement accuracy is necessary in these and other contexts. The location–location–location hypothesis suggests that rents within a neighborhood would grow at the same rate on average; prior research has both theoretically assumed, and empirically supported, this hypothesis. We show that, even within the same neighborhoods, rent inflation rates for different types of housing units often differ for years. Over the 2010s, apartment rents generally outpaced detached unit rents; this pattern reversed during the COVID-19 pandemic—providing nuance to prevailing narratives about the latter period, most of which are location-specific. These dynamics suggest that structural representativity is necessary for rent index accuracy and accurate inflation measurement. Even indexes based on careful geographical sampling, such as the United States Consumer Price Index’s (CPI’s) Owners’ Equivalent Rent component prior to 2023, may be biased by placing too much weight on apartment rents compared to detached unit rents. We demonstrate that this bias may be quite large, and offer recommendations — one of which was recently accepted by the CPI.
住房租金占家庭预算的很大一部分,对整体通胀也有很大影响。因此,租金测量的准确性在这些和其他情况下是必要的。区位-区位-区位假设表明,一个社区内的租金平均会以同样的速度增长;先前的研究在理论上假设了这一假设,并在经验上支持了这一假设。我们的研究表明,即使在同一个社区,不同类型住房单元的租金通胀率也会在数年内有所不同。在2010年代,公寓租金普遍超过独立单元租金;这一模式在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间发生了逆转,为关于后一时期的主流叙述提供了细微差别,其中大多数是针对特定地点的。这些动态表明,结构代表性对于租金指数的准确性和准确的通货膨胀测量是必要的。即使是基于仔细地理抽样的指数,如美国消费者价格指数(CPI)在2023年之前的业主等效租金组成部分,也可能因为与独立单元租金相比过于看重公寓租金而存在偏见。我们证明这种偏差可能相当大,并提出建议-其中一个最近被CPI接受。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of mortgage rates on the housing market 抵押贷款利率对房地产市场的影响
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102079
Martin Časta
We analyze the relationship between mortgage rates and housing activity in the US, focusing on house prices. Employing impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast variance ratios (FVRs), we address potential endogeneity concerns by instrumenting mortgage rates with changes in long-term yields. Our findings reveal a significant impact of mortgage rate changes on house prices, with the maximal implied long-run semi-elasticity being close to 10. The FVRs provide set-identified variance decomposition for the instrumented shock, suggesting that mortgage rate shocks explain 2%–25% of house price dynamics. The results also highlight substantial uncertainty, likely stemming from potential nonlinearities and regional factors influencing house price formation, which we further investigate. Additionally, we show that changes in mortgage rates significantly affect various dimensions of housing activity, including houses sold, construction, and building permits.
我们分析了美国抵押贷款利率和住房活动之间的关系,重点是房价。采用脉冲响应函数(irf)和预测方差比(FVRs),我们通过测量抵押贷款利率与长期收益率的变化来解决潜在的内生性问题。我们的研究结果揭示了抵押贷款利率变化对房价的显著影响,最大隐含的长期半弹性接近10。FVRs为工具冲击提供了集识别方差分解,表明抵押贷款利率冲击解释了2%-25%的房价动态。结果还强调了实质性的不确定性,可能源于潜在的非线性和影响房价形成的区域因素,我们将进一步研究。此外,我们表明,抵押贷款利率的变化显著影响住房活动的各个维度,包括房屋销售、建筑和建筑许可。
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引用次数: 0
Low-rise multifamily and housing supply: A case study of seattle 低层多户住宅与住房供应:以西雅图为例
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102082
Tobias Peter , Edward Pinto , Joseph Tracy
We provide an in-depth case study of land use reforms in Seattle to highlight how redevelopment of aging single-family housing to townhomes can lead to a significant increase in market-rate housing that promotes affordability. The key is to allow market forces to use by-right zoning to drive small-scale development, when also supported by clear and simplified regulatory frameworks. We have dubbed this the Housing Abundance Success Sequence, which is supported by this study along with over two dozen others. In Seattle, we document that such policies lead to a sustained 2.5 % per year increase in the housing stock, with a range of about 1–2.5 % in other case studies. Importantly, this approach requires no government subsidies and leads to higher local tax revenues. Our findings underscore the potential of thoughtful land use reforms to create more inclusive, affordable, and resilient housing markets, while also demonstrating that inclusionary zoning mandates do not work and can stop market-rate developers in their tracks.
我们提供了一个关于西雅图土地使用改革的深入案例研究,以强调如何将老化的单户住宅重新开发为联排别墅,从而导致市场价格住房的显著增加,从而提高人们的负担能力。关键是在明确和简化的监管框架的支持下,允许市场力量利用按权划分区域来推动小规模发展。我们将其命名为“住房富足成功序列”,该序列得到了这项研究和其他二十多项研究的支持。在西雅图,我们记录了这些政策导致住房存量每年持续增长2.5%,其他案例研究的范围约为1 - 2.5%。重要的是,这种方法不需要政府补贴,并导致更高的地方税收收入。我们的研究结果强调了深思熟虑的土地使用改革在创造更具包容性、可负担性和弹性的住房市场方面的潜力,同时也证明了包容性分区命令不起作用,可能会阻止市场价格开发商的发展。
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引用次数: 0
Equity of educational outcomes and families’ school choices preferences: Evidence from education reform in China 教育成果公平与家庭择校偏好:来自中国教育改革的证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102080
Jing Xue , Zhenzhen Liu , Jian Tong , Chengxuan Li
Integrating equity of outcomes into China’s basic education equalization reform marks a significant step toward addressing the shortage of high-quality educational resources and spatial disparities in educational access. This paper develops a school choice model incorporating the quota allocation policy, and analyzes its impact on school choices and school district housing prices. Using a generalized difference-in-difference framework, we assess the impact of equity-of-outcomes policy in Shanghai, China. The empirical findings reveal that school district housing prices in Shanghai decline by 0.0466 % on average following the implementation of the quota allocation policy. Furthermore, families prioritize the competitive advantages of allocated quotas and minimum scores when making school choices. Additionally, the policy impact varies across income groups, with middle- and low-income households exhibiting greater responsiveness due to increased flexibility in school selection. By shifting parental preferences away from exclusive competition for elite junior high schools, the equity-of-outcomes reform fosters a more balanced distribution of student composition, ultimately enhancing educational quality and equity.
将成果公平纳入中国基础教育均等化改革,标志着中国在解决优质教育资源短缺和教育机会空间差异问题上迈出了重要一步。本文建立了纳入配额分配政策的择校模型,并分析了配额分配政策对择校和学区房价的影响。本文采用广义差中差框架,评估了结果公平政策在中国上海的影响。实证结果显示,实施配额分配政策后,上海学区房价平均下降0.0466%。此外,家庭在选择学校时优先考虑分配配额和最低分数的竞争优势。此外,政策影响因收入群体而异,由于择校灵活性的增加,中低收入家庭表现出更强的响应能力。通过将家长的偏好从精英初中的排他性竞争中转移出来,结果公平改革促进了学生组成的更平衡分配,最终提高了教育质量和公平性。
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引用次数: 0
Density zoning, neighborhood type, and exclusion by income and race 密度分区,社区类型,以及收入和种族的排斥
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102065
Noah J. Durst , Elise Breshears , Esther Sullivan , Danna Gutierrez Lanza
In recent years, states and municipalities have taken steps to reform land use and zoning regulations. While prior research documents that density zoning contributes to residential segregation on the basis of income and race, the mechanisms remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we examine the relationship between density zoning, neighborhood type, and residential segregation. To do so, we use a national dataset of building footprints and machine learning to develop a neighborhood typology based on building characteristics. We then use land cover data to examine changes in building development in these neighborhoods between 2001 and 2019. Finally, we pair these data with demographics at the municipality level to examine changes in income and race between 2000 and 2020. In cross-sectional analyses, we find that density zoning is strongly associated with building characteristics and the presence of different neighborhood types. Although we find that density zoning is also associated with income and race, the effects are attenuated when accounting for neighborhood types. Our results provide new evidence into the ”chain of exclusion” between density zoning and residential segregation, as we find that density zoning is primarily associated with reductions in the supply of single-family housing along the urban fringe. Lastly, we find that maximum density restrictions and changes in maximum density cannot explain the changes in demographics that we observe during this time period. We do, however, find some evidence of a relationship between changes in building development and changes in demographics. These results demonstrate the potential effects of upzoning policies.
近年来,各州和市政当局已采取措施改革土地使用和分区规定。虽然先前的研究表明,密度分区导致了基于收入和种族的居住隔离,但其机制在很大程度上仍未被探索。在本文中,我们研究密度分区,邻里类型和居住隔离之间的关系。为此,我们使用建筑足迹的国家数据集和机器学习来开发基于建筑特征的社区类型。然后,我们使用土地覆盖数据来检查2001年至2019年期间这些社区建筑发展的变化。最后,我们将这些数据与市政一级的人口统计数据配对,以检查2000年至2020年间收入和种族的变化。在横断面分析中,我们发现密度分区与建筑特征和不同社区类型的存在密切相关。虽然我们发现密度分区也与收入和种族有关,但当考虑到社区类型时,这种影响就减弱了。我们的研究结果为密度分区和居住隔离之间的“排斥链”提供了新的证据,因为我们发现密度分区主要与城市边缘地区单户住宅供应的减少有关。最后,我们发现最大密度限制和最大密度的变化不能解释我们在这段时间内观察到的人口统计学变化。然而,我们确实发现了一些证据,表明建筑发展的变化与人口结构的变化之间存在关系。这些结果表明了分区升级政策的潜在影响。
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引用次数: 0
AC replacement: Heat of the moment or cool-headed choice?
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102068
Paul A. Brehm , Alecia Cassidy
This paper investigates the determinants of households’ central air conditioner (AC) replacements, one of the larger energy using durable goods that households purchase. We do not find evidence that hot weather or high humidity significantly affect AC replacement rates. However, higher electricity prices and bills increase the likelihood of AC replacement. These findings suggest that clear financial motivators like price incentives could be an effective tool in policymakers’ climate change arsenal going forward.
中央空调是家庭购买的耗能较大的耐用品之一,本文研究了家庭更换中央空调的决定因素。我们没有发现证据表明炎热的天气或高湿度显著影响AC更换率。然而,更高的电价和电费增加了更换交流电的可能性。这些发现表明,价格激励等明确的财务激励因素可能成为政策制定者未来应对气候变化的有效工具。
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引用次数: 0
Language proficiency and homeownership: Evidence from U.S. immigrants 语言能力和房屋所有权:来自美国移民的证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102067
Marc-André Luik , Max Friedrich Steinhardt , Simon Voss
In this paper, we deliver the first causal evidence on the relationship between immigrant host-country language proficiency and homeownership. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we find a substantial positive impact of language skills on the propensity to own a home and the quality of housing among immigrants in the United States. While this effect is mediated by household income, our estimates also speak in favor of a direct language effect. Suggestive evidence further indicates that part of this effect may be driven by discrimination. Our results highlight the importance of host-country-specific human capital and, in particular, language proficiency for socio-economic assimilation in housing markets.
在本文中,我们提供了移民东道国语言能力与住房所有权之间关系的第一个因果证据。使用工具变量策略,我们发现语言技能对美国移民拥有住房的倾向和住房质量有实质性的积极影响。虽然这种影响是由家庭收入介导的,但我们的估计也支持直接的语言效应。暗示性证据进一步表明,这种影响的部分原因可能是歧视。我们的研究结果强调了东道国特有的人力资本,特别是语言能力对住房市场社会经济同化的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Labor supply response to home value shocks: Evidence from Japan 劳动力供给对房价冲击的反应:来自日本的证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102069
Junya Hamaaki , Shinichiro Iwata
This paper examines the extent to which the labor supply of homeowners aged 40 years or over responds to unanticipated shocks to home values in Japan. Our findings suggest that only older homeowners respond to home value shocks. While older women strive to remain in the labor force, they tend to reduce their hours worked. Specifically, we find that an unanticipated one standard deviation increase in home value leads to a 5.2% reduction in hours worked per week relative to their average. Among older men, a small proportion choose to exit the labor force, while others reduce their hours worked without leaving their job. Specifically, an unanticipated one standard deviation increase in home value leads to a decrease in the likelihood of labor force participation by 4.8% and a reduction in hours worked per week of 9.2%, both relative to their average. We also find that women respond to home value shocks at a younger age than men. Women decrease their hours worked per week from the age of 55, while men start to reduce theirs from the age of 65. The small and late response to a home value shock among older homeowners may reflect the peculiarities of Japan’s housing and labor markets.
本文考察了日本40岁或以上的房主的劳动力供给对房屋价值意外冲击的反应程度。我们的研究结果表明,只有年龄较大的房主才会对房屋价值冲击做出反应。虽然老年妇女努力留在劳动力市场,但她们往往会减少工作时间。具体来说,我们发现房屋价值的一个意料之外的标准差增加导致每周工作时间相对于他们的平均值减少5.2%。在老年男性中,一小部分人选择退出劳动力市场,而其他人则在不离开工作的情况下减少工作时间。具体来说,与平均水平相比,房屋价值意外增加一个标准差会导致劳动力参与的可能性下降4.8%,每周工作时间减少9.2%。我们还发现,女性对房价冲击的反应比男性更早。女性从55岁开始每周工作时间减少,而男性从65岁开始每周工作时间减少。老年房主对房价冲击的反应迟缓,或许反映了日本住房和劳动力市场的特殊性。
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引用次数: 0
Promoting social housing : Insights from redevelopment policies in Paris 促进社会住房:来自巴黎重建政策的见解
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102061
Lauriane Belloy, Fabien Candau
The issue of income segregation plagues numerous cities, and in particular Paris which is studied here. To mitigate this problem, the local government has implemented redevelopment policies that increase incentives to convert offices and other commercial units into social housing in high-demand areas. We find that these policies have a negligible effect. Only the most restrictive legislation slightly stimulated the conversion of social housing in the city center; all subsequent policies had no effect.
收入隔离问题困扰着许多城市,尤其是本文研究的巴黎。为了缓解这一问题,当地政府实施了再开发政策,增加了将高需求地区的办公室和其他商业单位改造为社会住房的激励措施。我们发现这些政策的效果微不足道。只有最严格的立法才略微刺激了市中心社会住房的转换;后来的所有政策都没有效果。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Housing Economics
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