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Burning the Australian dream: Temperature shocks and homeownership in Australia 燃烧的澳大利亚梦:澳大利亚的温度冲击和房屋所有权
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102031
Akwasi Ampofo , Sefa Awaworyi Churchill , Kingsley Baako , Godwin Kavaarpuo
Rising temperature and climate change impact individual and household economic decisions. While an established body of literature has examined the effects of temperature shocks on different outcomes, there is limited evidence on the relationship between temperature shocks and homeownership. We contribute to the literature by presenting evidence on the impact of temperature shocks on homeownership in Australia. We use longitudinal data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey and satellite re-analysis temperature data over the period 2001 to 2019, and apply a fixed effect approach that addresses unobserved heterogeneity. We find that an increase in temperature shocks is associated with a decline in the probability of owning a home. We find this relationship to be more pronounced in urban than rural areas, and among individuals with a bachelor's degree. We also find the relationship to be persistent in recent years. Additionally, we find neighbourhood crime, social capital, neighbourhood satisfaction, life satisfaction and house prices to mediate the relationship between temperature shocks and homeownership.
气温上升和气候变化影响个人和家庭的经济决策。虽然已有大量文献研究了温度冲击对不同结果的影响,但关于温度冲击与房屋所有权之间关系的证据有限。我们通过提出澳大利亚温度冲击对房屋所有权影响的证据来贡献文献。我们使用来自澳大利亚家庭、收入和劳动力动态调查(HILDA)的纵向数据和卫星重新分析2001年至2019年期间的温度数据,并采用固定效应方法来解决未观察到的异质性。我们发现,温度冲击的增加与拥有住房的可能性的下降有关。我们发现,这种关系在城市地区比农村地区更为明显,在拥有学士学位的个人中也更为明显。我们还发现,近年来这种关系持续存在。此外,我们发现邻里犯罪、社会资本、邻里满意度、生活满意度和房价在温度冲击与住房自有率的关系中起中介作用。
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引用次数: 0
Circumventing rent controls with tenants’ maintenance fees: Evidence from Korea 利用租客的维护费用规避租金管制:来自韩国的证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102042
Sungjin Yun , Hoon Choi
This paper investigates the use of side payments to circumvent rent control policies, focusing on the 2020 amendment to Korea's Housing Lease Protection Act. Using a difference-in-differences-in-differences approach with data from the 2019–2022 waves of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey, we find a significant increase in maintenance fees following the expansion of rent control. This increase is particularly evident in units not subject to strict maintenance fee regulations, suggesting that landlords exploit regulatory gaps by raising fees in response to the rent cap. Our findings further indicate that individuals disproportionately affected by higher maintenance fees tend to be female, aged 30 to 39, aged 70 or older, and lacking a college degree. This pattern suggests that landlords may target individuals perceived as having weaker negotiating power, thus capitalizing on potential vulnerabilities.
本文以2020年韩国《住房租赁保护法》修正案为研究对象,调查了利用附加付款规避租金管制政策的行为。通过对2019-2022年家庭收入和支出调查数据的差异中差异的差异方法,我们发现在租金管制扩大后,维护费显著增加。这种增长在不受严格维护费规定约束的单元中尤为明显,这表明房东通过提高费用来应对租金上限来利用监管漏洞。我们的研究结果进一步表明,受更高维护费影响最大的个体往往是女性,年龄在30至39岁之间,年龄在70岁或以上,并且没有大学学位。这种模式表明,房东可能会瞄准那些被认为谈判能力较弱的人,从而利用潜在的弱点。
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引用次数: 0
Housing regulation and bubbles 房地产调控与泡沫
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102046
Claire Océane Chevallier , Sarah El Joueidi
This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model in infinite horizon, in which deterministic rational housing bubbles may emerge. Borrowers are constrained by two macroprudential regulations: DTI and LTV limits. The study investigates whether housing bubbles can arise under these regulatory constraints and identifies the specific conditions for their emergence. Our findings show that: (1) with LTV regulations, the equilibrium may feature a housing bubble; (2) when agents face an LTV regulation, two equilibria may emerge: a bubbleless and a housing bubble equilibria; (3) tighter LTV regulations exacerbate the growth of housing bubbles.
本文建立了一个无限视界下的动态一般均衡模型,其中确定性的理性泡沫可能出现。借款人受到两项宏观审慎监管的约束:DTI和LTV限制。该研究调查了房地产泡沫是否会在这些监管约束下产生,并确定了其产生的具体条件。研究结果表明:(1)在LTV调控下,均衡可能存在房地产泡沫;(2)当市场主体面临LTV调控时,可能出现两种均衡:无泡沫均衡和房地产泡沫均衡;(3)严格的LTV监管加剧了房地产泡沫的增长。
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引用次数: 0
Going it alone: The impact of upzoning on housing construction in Lower Hutt 单打独斗:下赫特区分区升级对住房建设的影响
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102032
Matthew Maltman , Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy
This paper studies a sequence of zoning reforms enacted in Lower Hutt, a constituent municipality of the wider Wellington metropolitan region of New Zealand. Beginning in the late 2010s, Lower Hutt independently implemented a sequence of widespread zoning changes to enable medium- and high- density housing in residential areas. Using a synthetic control to specify the policy counterfactual, we find that these zoning changes generated a three-fold increase in consents per capita and nearly tripled the number of housing starts over the six years subsequent to the onset of the reforms. Depending on how potential displacement effects are accounted for, the Lower Hutt reforms increased housing starts across the wider metropolitan region by approximately 10 to 18%. We also present evidence that the upzonings reduced rents by around 21% relative to the counterfactual.
本文研究了在新西兰惠灵顿大都市区的组成城市下赫特颁布的一系列分区改革。从2010年代末开始,Lower Hutt独立实施了一系列广泛的分区变更,使住宅区的中高密度住房成为可能。使用综合控制来指定政策反事实,我们发现这些分区变化使人均同意增加了三倍,在改革开始后的六年里,住房开工数量增加了近三倍。根据如何考虑潜在的流离失所影响,下赫特改革将整个大都市区的住房开工率提高了约10%至18%。我们还提供了证据表明,相对于反事实,升级区减少了约21%的租金。
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引用次数: 0
Mandatory energy efficiency disclosure policies and house prices 强制性能源效率披露政策和房价
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102043
Sven Damen, Tijmen van Kempen
Mandatory disclosure policies are increasingly being used by governments around the world to reduce information-driven market failures related to climate risk and energy efficiency. We exploit two policy changes in Flanders (Belgium) to study the causal effect of mandatory energy efficiency disclosure policies on house prices. We find that the introduction of mandatory energy performance certificates with an energy efficiency score in 2008 did not affect the association between energy efficiency and sales prices, indicating that the policy change did not reduce information frictions. However, the introduction of EPC labels in 2019 affected the capitalization of energy efficiency.
世界各国政府越来越多地采用强制性披露政策,以减少与气候风险和能源效率有关的信息驱动的市场失灵。我们利用法兰德斯(比利时)的两个政策变化来研究强制性能源效率披露政策对房价的因果关系。我们发现,2008年引入的强制性能效分数能源绩效证书并没有影响能效与销售价格之间的关联,这表明政策变化并没有减少信息摩擦。然而,2019年EPC标签的引入影响了能源效率的资本化。
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引用次数: 0
Housing prices, airport noise and an unforeseeable event of silence 房价、机场噪音和不可预见的沉默事件
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102026
Philipp Breidenbach , Patrick Thiel
To evaluate the causal impact of noise exposure on housing prices, we exploit a sudden and massive reduction in flight traffic that occurred with the onset of the COVID-19 measures in Germany. Comparing locations differently exposed to pre- pandemic noise with a difference-in-difference approach, we detect a 2.4% increase in prices for apartments that experienced a noise reduction. Disentangling temporal dynamics, we find a peak effect in mid-2021 (up to 6%), with the effect persisting until 2023, albeit at a lower magnitude. In contrast to most evaluations show- ing that the erection of a disamenity affects prices negatively, we show that lifting the burden enables neighborhoods to catch up again immediately. The immediate catch-up contradicts a stickiness of housing prices regarding (temporal) local fac- tors. The temporal pattern shows a clear peak of the effects during the pandemic, which potentially hints at information asymmetries since buyers may not know the non-pandemic noise level during the pandemic.
为了评估噪音暴露对房价的因果影响,我们利用了德国 COVID-19 措施实施时航班流量突然大幅减少的情况。通过差分法比较不同地区受大流行前噪音影响的程度,我们发现噪音降低的公寓价格上涨了 2.4%。在对时间动态进行分解后,我们发现在 2021 年中期出现了一个峰值效应(高达 6%),该效应一直持续到 2023 年,尽管幅度较小。与大多数评估结果表明设立障碍物会对房价产生负面影响不同,我们的研究表明,解除障碍物会使社区房价立即回升。这种立即赶超的现象与当地(时间)因素导致的房价粘性相矛盾。时间模式显示,大流行期间的影响达到了一个明显的峰值,这可能暗示了信息不对称,因为购房者可能不知道大流行期间非大流行的噪音水平。
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引用次数: 0
A cost decomposition of break-even rents for new multifamily housing development 新的多户住宅开发项目盈亏平衡租金的成本分解
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102012
Michael D. Eriksen , Anthony W. Orlando

We decompose the break-even rents of new multifamily housing into three cost components — land prices, construction costs, and financial capital — for 50 of the largest cities in the United States from 2012 to 2020. This is accomplished by combining existing data on land prices and income capitalization rates with a new data series on local historical pricing of required construction components of complete buildings called “assemblies”. For both 3-story, wood-framed buildings and 12-story, steel-framed buildings, we find that construction costs contribute significantly to the growth of break-even rents, and the relative contribution of construction costs exceeds that of land values for the taller buildings. Meanwhile, cap rates have declined, mediating the effect of development costs on the rents borne by tenants. Overall, there is significant variation in rent growth across cities that can be explained by these three cost factors.

我们将美国 50 个最大城市 2012 年至 2020 年新建多户住宅的盈亏平衡租金分解为三个成本组成部分--土地价格、建筑成本和金融资本。为此,我们将现有的土地价格和收入资本化率数据与被称为 "组件 "的完整建筑所需建筑组件的当地历史定价的新数据系列相结合。我们发现,对于 3 层木结构建筑和 12 层钢结构建筑而言,建筑成本对盈亏平衡租金的增长贡献显著,而且对于较高的建筑而言,建筑成本的相对贡献超过了土地价值。与此同时,上限利率也有所下降,从而调节了开发成本对租户所承担租金的影响。总体而言,这三个成本因素可以解释不同城市租金增长的显著差异。
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引用次数: 0
Does flood risk affect property prices? Evidence from a property-level flood score 洪水风险会影响房产价格吗?来自物业级别洪水评分的证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102027
Alexandros Skouralis, Nicole Lux, Mark Andrew
One in six properties in England is exposed to flood risk and around half of those affected properties can be characterised as high risk. In this paper we examine whether the probability of flooding is capitalised in England's property market prices. We use unique property-level data from Rightmove, UK's no.1 property website and the property-level FloodScoreTMby Twinn, Royal HaskoningDHV. The latter is a metric of objective flood risk based on the likelihood of an individual property being flooded due to rainfall, overflowing rivers and tidal surges and is commonly used by UK lenders. By comparing the unconditional averages of our data, we find that properties at risk are sold at an 8.14 % discount compared to non-exposed properties, and the price discount increases to 32.2 % for properties with very high flood risk. By 2080 the flood events are expected to become more frequent and the average flood risk is projected to increase by 8 %. Our empirical model suggests that one percentage point increase in properties' flood risk is associated with a decline of 0.07 % to 0.11 % in both sold and asking property prices. The impact is higher for properties of which flood risk is expected to increase or for regions that have recently experienced a flood event.
在英格兰,每六处房产中就有一处面临洪水风险,其中约有一半的房产属于高风险房产。在本文中,我们研究了英格兰房地产市场价格中是否将洪水概率资本化。我们使用了英国第一大房地产网站 Rightmove 提供的独特的房地产级别数据,以及皇家哈斯康宁公司(Royal HaskoningDHV)Twinn 提供的房地产级别 FloodScoreTM。后者是一种客观洪水风险度量标准,基于单个房产因降雨、河流泛滥和潮汐涌动而被洪水淹没的可能性,被英国贷款机构普遍采用。通过比较我们数据的无条件平均值,我们发现与未暴露于洪水风险的房产相比,暴露于洪水风险的房产的售价折扣为 8.14%,而洪水风险极高的房产的售价折扣则增至 32.2%。到 2080 年,洪水事件预计将变得更加频繁,平均洪水风险预计将增加 8%。我们的实证模型表明,房产洪水风险每增加一个百分点,其售价和要价就会下降 0.07% 至 0.11%。对于洪水风险预计会增加的房产或最近发生过洪水事件的地区,这种影响更大。
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引用次数: 0
Sea-level rise, groundwater quality, and the impacts on coastal homeowners’ decisions to sell 海平面上升、地下水质量以及对沿海房主出售决定的影响
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102028
Dennis Guignet , O. Ashton Morgan , Craig E. Landry , John C. Whitehead , William P. Anderson Jr
Sea-level rise poses a growing threat to coastal communities and economies across the globe. North Carolina (NC) is no exception, with coastal communities facing annual sea-level rise rates of 2.01 to 4.55 mm/year (NOAA, 2018). Sea-level rise can affect key ecosystem services to coastal communities, including the provision of clean drinking water and adequate wastewater treatment. We examine how increases in the cost of these services and possible negative effects on coastal house prices due to sea-level rise impact homeowners’ decisions to remain in their current home or sell. Administering a stated preference survey to NC homeowners in counties adjacent to the coast, we assess how households might respond to increasing costs due to sea-level rise. We present a novel framework to estimate expected welfare impacts under illustrative scenarios, and examine heterogeneity in responses and welfare effects with respect to place attachment. Our analysis can help inform local communities and benefit-cost analyses of future adaptation strategies and infrastructure investments.
海平面上升对全球沿海社区和经济构成了日益严重的威胁。北卡罗来纳州(NC)也不例外,沿海社区面临着每年 2.01 到 4.55 毫米的海平面上升率(NOAA,2018 年)。海平面上升会影响沿海社区的关键生态系统服务,包括提供清洁饮用水和适当的废水处理。我们研究了这些服务成本的增加以及海平面上升可能对沿海房价造成的负面影响如何影响房主决定继续居住还是出售房屋。通过对毗邻海岸的县的北卡罗来纳州房主进行陈述偏好调查,我们评估了家庭如何应对海平面上升导致的成本增加。我们提出了一个新颖的框架来估算说明性情景下的预期福利影响,并研究了与地方依附性相关的反应和福利影响的异质性。我们的分析有助于为当地社区和未来适应战略及基础设施投资的效益成本分析提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Residents’ willingness to pay to avoid crime 居民为避免犯罪而付费的意愿
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102024
Alexander Dentler , Enzo Rossi
How much is a resident willing to pay to avoid a crime in the neighborhood? House price changes following a crime do not fully reflect the willingness to pay to avoid crime. Besides prices the market’s liquidity needs to be taken into account in this context. We detect market freezes following shootings, assaults, robberies, and burglaries. We propose a model, supported by empirical evidence, that combines the price and quantity dimensions into a single measure: economic welfare. The willingness to pay depends on the type of crime and averages between 7% and 18% of house valuations. These predictions are manifolds of the effect on prices estimated in this paper (0%–10%) and documented in the literature. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of considering market liquidity when examining the impact of crime on the real estate market.
居民愿意支付多少钱来避免附近发生犯罪?犯罪发生后的房价变化并不能完全反映人们为避免犯罪而支付的意愿。在这种情况下,除了价格,还需要考虑市场的流动性。我们发现了枪击、袭击、抢劫和入室盗窃后的市场冻结现象。我们提出了一个有经验证据支持的模型,该模型将价格和数量维度合并为一个单一的衡量标准:经济福利。支付意愿取决于犯罪类型,平均占房屋估值的 7% 到 18%。这些预测值是本文估算的价格影响(0%-10%)和文献记载的价格影响的数倍。总之,我们的研究结果强调了在研究犯罪对房地产市场的影响时考虑市场流动性的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Housing Economics
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