Journal of Housing Economics最新文献

英文中文

The spatial spillover effect of the multi-school zoning policies 多校区划政策的空间溢出效应

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102070

Tiantian Dai , Shenyi Jiang , Yang Ming , Xinyi Zhang

Local governments in China have implemented a series of education and real estate policies to promote educational equity and mitigate the escalation of housing prices within school attendance zones. This paper examines the spatial spillover effects of changes in the probability of school enrollment, stemming from the implementation of the Multi-School Zoning Policies in Xicheng district, Beijing, on housing prices in neighboring districts. We first present a theoretical model and derive testable predictions. Subsequently, we utilize transaction-level data on previously owned homes to evaluate spillover effects in addition to direct treatment effects. A flexible event study model is employed to incorporate both the anticipatory effect induced by the early policy announcement and the post-treatment effect. Our findings highlight significant negative direct impacts on Xicheng’s average total home sale price (1.5 % to 2.8 %) and noteworthy positive spillover effects on home sale prices in neighboring districts (1.1 % to 1.6 %). Furthermore, the spillover effect operates as a general equilibrium effect, being more pronounced for housing units in better school attendance zones and that are smaller and closer to Xicheng district. Our findings suggest that in formulating regional policies to stabilize housing prices, policy makers should account for spillover effects to ensure that these policies align with the broader objectives of a larger region.

中国的地方政府已经实施了一系列教育和房地产政策，以促进教育公平，并缓解上学区域内房价的上涨。本文考察了北京市西城区实施多校分区政策后，入学概率变化对周边地区房价的空间溢出效应。我们首先提出了一个理论模型，并得出了可测试的预测。随后，我们利用以前拥有的房屋的交易级数据来评估除了直接治疗效应之外的溢出效应。采用弹性事件研究模型，综合考虑政策公告的前期预期效应和后处理效应。我们的研究结果突出了对西城平均总房屋销售价格的显著负面直接影响（1.5%至2.8%），以及对邻近地区房屋销售价格的显著正面溢出效应（1.1%至1.6%）。此外，外溢效应表现为一般均衡效应，在入学率较好的区域、更小、更靠近西城区的住房单元中更为明显。我们的研究结果表明，在制定稳定房价的区域政策时，政策制定者应该考虑溢出效应，以确保这些政策与更大区域的更广泛目标保持一致。

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引用次数: 0

Capital structure, the adjusted present value, and mortgage choice 资本结构、调整后现值与抵押选择

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102066

Dogan Tirtiroglu , Ercan Tirtiroglu

Choosing the right combination of mortgage interest rate and discount points is important for real estate investors to minimize their cost of capital. This paper subscribes to Myers’ (1974) Adjusted Present Value (APV) method to study the effect of capital structure on the mortgage choice. An important implication and advantage of subscribing to the APV method is that an investor’s risk aversion does not affect the investor’s mortgage choice. Our framework relies on the daily observable, and objectively and market-determined interest rates and, by avoiding the need to estimate a risk-adjusted discount rate, offers a simpler and cleaner platform for empirical tests on the mortgage choice questions than those proposed in the extant literature.

选择合适的抵押贷款利率和贴现点的组合对于房地产投资者最小化资金成本至关重要。本文采用Myers（1974）的调整现值（APV）方法研究资本结构对抵押贷款选择的影响。订阅APV方法的一个重要含义和优势是，投资者的风险厌恶不会影响投资者的抵押贷款选择。我们的框架依赖于日常可观察的、客观的、市场决定的利率，并且通过避免估计风险调整后的贴现率的需要，为抵押贷款选择问题的实证测试提供了一个比现有文献中提出的更简单、更清晰的平台。

引用次数: 0

Living in the gender spectrum: Evidence from non-cisgender applications in the rental housing market 生活在性别光谱中：来自租赁住房市场中非顺性别应用的证据

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102064

Sofia Fritzson , Joakim Jansson

We present novel evidence from the first correspondence study investigating the effect of individual non-cisgender signals in the housing market. In a preregistered trial, 800 fictitious letters were sent to rental apartment landlords in Sweden. Cismale applicants received fewer positive responses compared to ciswomen, while non-cisgender applicants had response rates that fell between those of ciswomen and cismen. The effects were strongest for apartments located outside of major cities. Non-cisgender applicants were also more often asked to clarify their gender. Additionally, cismale applicants were more likely to be addressed by the wrong name and were less frequently asked if they would bring any cohabitants.

我们提出了新的证据，从第一个通信研究调查的影响，个人非顺性别信号在住房市场。在一项预先登记的试验中，800封虚构的信件被发送给瑞典的出租公寓房东。顺性男性申请者比顺性女性得到的积极回应要少，而非顺性申请者的回应率介于顺性女性和顺性男性之间。位于大城市以外的公寓受到的影响最大。非顺性别申请人也经常被要求澄清自己的性别。此外，顺性男性申请人更有可能被称呼为错误的名字，并且很少被问及他们是否会带任何同居者。

引用次数: 0

Rent control and the supply of affordable housing 租金管制和经济适用房的供应

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-04-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102063

Christina Stacy , Timothy R. Hodge , Timothy M. Komarek , Christopher Davis , Alena Stern , Owen Noble , Jorge Morales-Burnett , Amy Rogin

We generate the first cross-city panel dataset of rent control reforms and estimate their effect on the supply of rental housing overall and across varying levels of affordability. To identify reforms, we use machine learning algorithms to analyze over 76,000 newspaper articles from 7000 news outlets, spanning 27 metropolitan areas and >4000 census places across the US between 2000 and April of 2021. We then manually validate identified articles to ensure accuracy and combine these data with rental unit counts by affordability level, created using Census microdata. To assess the impact of rent control reforms on rental supply, we employ a two-way fixed effects model with place specific time trends and examine the robustness of our results with a staggered treatment design. Our results provide evidence that more restrictive rent control reforms are associated with a 10-percent reduction in the total number of rental units in a city. When stratified by affordability (based on U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development definitions of affordability), these reforms lead to an increase in the availability of units affordable to extremely low-income households by about 52 % (with a lower-bound effect equal to 11 %), offset by a decline in units affordable to higher-income households of about 46 % (with a lower-bound estimate equal to 4 %). These findings highlight the complex trade-offs inherent to rent control policies, illustrating differential impacts across income groups and underscoring the nuanced nature of such interventions.

我们生成了第一个租金管制改革的跨城市面板数据集，并估计了它们对整体和不同负担能力水平的租赁住房供应的影响。为了确定改革，我们使用机器学习算法分析了2000年至2021年4月期间美国27个大都市地区和4000个人口普查点的7000家新闻媒体的76000多篇报纸文章。然后，我们手动验证已识别的物品以确保准确性，并将这些数据与使用Census微数据创建的可负担水平的租赁单位计数结合起来。为了评估租金管制改革对租金供应的影响，我们采用了一个具有地点特定时间趋势的双向固定效应模型，并用交错处理设计检验了我们结果的稳健性。我们的研究结果提供了证据，表明更严格的租金管制改革与一个城市租赁单元总数减少10%有关。当按负担能力分层时（基于美国住房和城市发展部对负担能力的定义），这些改革导致极低收入家庭负担得起的住房供应量增加了约52%（下限效应等于11%），被高收入家庭负担得起的住房供应量下降了约46%（下限估计等于4%）所抵消。这些发现突出了租金控制政策固有的复杂权衡，说明了不同收入群体的不同影响，并强调了此类干预措施的微妙性质。

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引用次数: 0

Selling price, time on the market, and contractual contingencies 销售价格、上市时间和合同附带条件

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-04-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102062

Zhenguo Lin , Michael J. Seiler , Ralph B. Siebert (Professor of Economics) , Daniel T. Winkler (Professor of Finance and Real Estate)

Real estate contracts often have a wide variety of contractual contingencies. This study examines whether a property inspection clause, the sale of other property contingency clause, and a backup offer contract affect a property's time on the market and selling price. A theoretical model is created based on the relative bargaining power between the buyer and seller. Using a large sample of transactions from Miami-Dade County in South Florida, we find that contingency clauses are significantly affected by market conditions, time on the market, list price premiums, brokerage characteristics, home size, and age. The time on the market (TOM) for purchase contracts with a property (pending) inspection clause or a backup offer contract is shorter. In contrast, the TOM for a sale of other property clause is longer. When holding constant TOM, buyers pay less for properties with a property inspection clause. In comparison, sellers receive a premium for properties with a sale of other property contingency clause. A backup offer contract has no effect on the selling price.

房地产合同通常有各种各样的合同或有事项。本研究探讨物业检视条款、其他物业出售的应急条款和备用报价合约是否会影响物业的上市时间和售价。建立了基于买卖双方相对议价能力的理论模型。利用南佛罗里达州迈阿密-戴德县的大量交易样本，我们发现应急条款受到市场条件、上市时间、标价溢价、经纪公司特征、房屋面积和年龄的显著影响。带有物业（待定）检验条款或备用报价合同的购买合同的上市时间（TOM）较短。相比之下，出售其他财产的TOM条款则更长。当TOM保持不变时，买家为带有物业检查条款的物业支付较少的费用。相比之下，卖方在出售其他财产时可以获得溢价。备用要约合同对卖价没有影响。

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引用次数: 0

Asymmetric information provision and flood risk salience 信息提供不对称和洪水风险突出

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102060

Dongxiao Niu , Piet Eichholtz , Nils Kok

This paper examines the impact of information provision on the capitalization of flood risk in the housing market. We exploit a climate risk disclosure program and a subsequent flooding event in the Netherlands, using a difference-in-differences framework. The results indicate that annual flood risk communication letters sent to residents in flood-prone areas have minimal impact on housing prices. In contrast, a small-scale flood event triggers a 3.4 % decline in house prices, demonstrating the effectiveness of direct experience in influencing price adjustments. This price effect is short-lived and is observed only among local buyers who have access to both the letters and firsthand flood experience, while non-local buyers remain unresponsive. We also observe an increase in the time on market and listing-to-sales ratio among local buyers, alongside a rise in the renter-occupied household ratio following flood risk information provision. Small-sized, high-educated, and risk-averse families tend to relocate from the high-risk area. The results in this paper provide insights for policymakers grappling with how to reduce information asymmetry in housing markets in the face of increasing climate risks.

本文考察了信息提供对住房市场洪水风险资本化的影响。我们利用了气候风险披露计划和随后在荷兰发生的洪水事件，使用了差异中的差异框架。结果表明，每年向洪水易发地区居民发送洪水风险通报信对房价的影响最小。相比之下，小规模洪水事件引发房价下跌3.4%，表明直接经验在影响价格调整方面的有效性。这种价格效应是短暂的，而且只在既能接触到信件又能亲身经历洪水的本地买家中观察到，而非本地买家仍然没有反应。我们还观察到，在提供洪水风险信息后，本地买家的待售时间和挂牌销售比有所增加，而出租住户的比例也有所上升。小规模、高学历和厌恶风险的家庭倾向于从高风险地区搬迁。本文的结果为政策制定者提供了见解，他们正在努力解决如何在面临日益增加的气候风险的情况下减少住房市场的信息不对称。

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引用次数: 0

Dynamics of subletting: Evidence from Swedish university students 转租的动态：来自瑞典大学生的证据

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102049

Theo Herold

Groups with more transient accommodation needs, such as students and expatriates, are increasingly turning to long-term rental sublets to satisfy their demand. We empirically analyze seasonality and market dynamics of such a market in the context of university admissions in Sweden. We find no difference in rents during the first half of the calendar year in student cities, followed by a sharp increase in August that stays persistent throughout the year. Student city listing density increases until May but is completely offset by September. During the subsequent 8 weeks following the university admission period, rents grow between 4.6 and 5.4 percent on average, while a one percentage point increase in the ratio of student net movement to population is associated with an increase in rent between 0.77 and 0.98 percent. Using a more robust subsample, we find that daily listing density in student cities decreases by 29.6 percent relative to non-student cities in the week immediately following the admission periods.

有更多临时住宿需求的群体，如学生和外籍人士，越来越多地转向长期租赁，以满足他们的需求。我们在瑞典大学招生的背景下，实证分析了这种市场的季节性和市场动态。我们发现，学生城市的租金在日历年的上半年没有差异，随后在8月份急剧上涨，并在全年保持不变。学生城市的挂牌密度在5月之前一直在增加，但到9月就完全抵消了。在大学录取期之后的8周内，租金平均增长4.6%至5.4%，而学生净流动与人口之比每增加1个百分点，租金就会增长0.77%至0.98%。使用更稳健的子样本，我们发现在入学期之后的一周内，学生城市的每日房源密度相对于非学生城市下降了29.6%。

引用次数: 0

The ‘Green buildings’ directive: A quantification of its costs and benefits in two Italian regions 绿色建筑 "指令：意大利两个大区的成本与效益量化

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102057

Lorenzo Forni , Filippo Fortuna , Elena Giarda , Francesco Giovanardi , Demetrio Panarello

The building sector is responsible for a significant portion of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Europe. Thus, achieving 2050 net-zero emissions targets necessitates the decarbonisation of the sector. This paper assesses the monetary costs, based on current technologies, of meeting the intermediate targets for 2030 and 2033 outlined in the EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD). The analysis focuses on two Italian regions with an ageing building stock and demonstrates that these costs are substantial. We employ open-source microdata on Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) for the Lombardy and Piedmont regions, which provide information on dwellings’ energy class and recommendations of the necessary retrofits to reach a higher energy class, as well as CO2 emissions and energy consumption. We estimate a total expenditure of €118.9 billion to take Lombardy's and Piedmont's residential stock to at least energy class D, which is 20.2 % of the two regions’ GDP and 5.6 % of Italy's GDP. Understanding the balance of costs and benefits is crucial to evaluate the economic incentives for homeowners to adopt energy efficiency measures. Households are estimated to save yearly €3.3 billion in lower energy bills in the two regions, and CO2-equivalent emissions are estimated to drop annually by 6.9 million tons. While homeowners may internalise the private benefits, they are unlikely to account for the social benefits in terms of lower emissions. As a result, achieving the EPBD targets is likely to require public subsidies.

建筑行业是欧洲温室气体（GHG）排放的重要组成部分。因此，要实现2050年的净零排放目标，就必须实现该行业的脱碳。本文根据目前的技术，评估了实现欧盟建筑能效指令（EPBD）中概述的2030年和2033年中间目标的货币成本。该分析集中在意大利的两个地区，这些地区的建筑存量老化，并表明这些成本是巨大的。我们在伦巴第和皮埃蒙特地区使用了能源绩效证书（epc）的开源微数据，这些数据提供了住宅能源等级的信息和达到更高能源等级所需的改造建议，以及二氧化碳排放和能源消耗。我们估计，伦巴第和皮埃蒙特的住宅存量达到能源D级至少需要1189亿欧元，这相当于这两个地区GDP的20.2%和意大利GDP的5.6%。了解成本和收益的平衡对于评估房主采取节能措施的经济激励至关重要。据估计，这两个地区的家庭每年可节省33亿欧元的能源费用，二氧化碳当量排放量预计每年减少690万吨。虽然房主可能会将个人利益内在化，但他们不太可能将低排放带来的社会利益考虑在内。因此，实现紧急发展方案目标可能需要公共补贴。

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引用次数: 0

Rational eviction: How landlords use evictions in response to rent control 理性驱逐：房东如何利用驱逐来应对租金管制

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102047

Eilidh Geddes , Nicole Holz

When designing rent control regulations, policy makers aim to create regulations that ensure affordable and stable housing for current tenants while minimizing exits from the rental market by landlords. Vacancy decontrol provisions that allow rent re-sets between tenants intend to strike a balance between a lower rent burden for current tenants and future potential profitability for landlords. However, such provisions also increase the incentive for landlords to evict tenants. Such evictions reduce both the anti-displacement and rent reduction effects of rent control. To study the effects of rent control on eviction behavior, we exploit variation across ZIP codes in policy exposure to the passage of the 1994 rent control referendum in San Francisco. We find that a ZIP code with the average level of treatment experiences an additional 34 eviction notices—an 83% increase—and an additional 13 wrongful eviction claims—a 125% increase. These effects were concentrated in low-income ZIP codes and were larger in years when average rent prices rose faster than the allowed rent increases for controlled units.

在制定房租管制条例时，政策制定者的目标是制定既能确保现有租户负担得起和稳定的住房，又能尽量减少房东退出租赁市场的条例。允许租户之间重新设定租金的空置率解除管制条款，意在当前租户的较低租金负担与房东未来的潜在盈利能力之间取得平衡。然而，此类规定也增加了房东驱逐房客的动机。这种驱逐行为降低了租金管制的反迁移和减租效果。为了研究房租管制对驱逐行为的影响，我们利用了 1994 年旧金山房租管制公投通过后不同邮政编码在政策暴露方面的差异。我们发现，在平均处理水平下，一个邮政编码会多收到 34 份驱逐通知--增加了 83%，并多收到 13 份不当驱逐索赔--增加了 125%。这些影响主要集中在低收入的邮政编码中，并且在平均租金价格上涨快于受管制单位的允许租金涨幅的年份中影响更大。

引用次数: 0

Housing regulation and bubbles 房地产调控与泡沫

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Housing Economics

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102046

Claire Océane Chevallier , Sarah El Joueidi

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model in infinite horizon, in which deterministic rational housing bubbles may emerge. Borrowers are constrained by two macroprudential regulations: DTI and LTV limits. The study investigates whether housing bubbles can arise under these regulatory constraints and identifies the specific conditions for their emergence. Our findings show that: (1) with LTV regulations, the equilibrium may feature a housing bubble; (2) when agents face an LTV regulation, two equilibria may emerge: a bubbleless and a housing bubble equilibria; (3) tighter LTV regulations exacerbate the growth of housing bubbles.

本文建立了一个无限视界下的动态一般均衡模型，其中确定性的理性泡沫可能出现。借款人受到两项宏观审慎监管的约束：DTI和LTV限制。该研究调查了房地产泡沫是否会在这些监管约束下产生，并确定了其产生的具体条件。研究结果表明：(1)在LTV调控下，均衡可能存在房地产泡沫；(2)当市场主体面临LTV调控时，可能出现两种均衡：无泡沫均衡和房地产泡沫均衡；(3)严格的LTV监管加剧了房地产泡沫的增长。

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