Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-08-12DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102088
Qiulin Ke , Bing Zhu , Michael White , Bin Chi
During the Covid-19 pandemic, the UK government reduced the transaction tax on house sales, i.e., the Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) rate, to stimulate the housing market. Based on a difference-in-difference framework and over 400,000 repeat sale transactions, we find a significantly positive impact of the tax holiday on both home prices and trading volumes. On a national scale, on average, 79.92 % of the surplus generated by the holiday accrued to buyers, accompanied by a noticeable level (10.27 %) of welfare loss. Regional analysis validates the leverage channel, revealing that transaction prices and volumes respond significantly more in areas with severe liquidity constraints. This finding underscores the effectiveness of tax reductions in easing down-payment constraints, thereby enabling more households to become homeowners. However, the resulting upward pressure on prices reduces the net benefit for buyers and exacerbates market inefficiencies. The potential downsides should not be overlooked, particularly in areas with tighter liquidity constraints and lower housing affordability.
{"title":"Transactions tax change during the pandemic: A study of the UK housing market","authors":"Qiulin Ke , Bing Zhu , Michael White , Bin Chi","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102088","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102088","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>During the Covid-19 pandemic, the UK government reduced the transaction tax on house sales, i.e., the Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) rate, to stimulate the housing market. Based on a difference-in-difference framework and over 400,000 repeat sale transactions, we find a significantly positive impact of the tax holiday on both home prices and trading volumes. On a national scale, on average, 79.92 % of the surplus generated by the holiday accrued to buyers, accompanied by a noticeable level (10.27 %) of welfare loss. Regional analysis validates the leverage channel, revealing that transaction prices and volumes respond significantly more in areas with severe liquidity constraints. This finding underscores the effectiveness of tax reductions in easing down-payment constraints, thereby enabling more households to become homeowners. However, the resulting upward pressure on prices reduces the net benefit for buyers and exacerbates market inefficiencies. The potential downsides should not be overlooked, particularly in areas with tighter liquidity constraints and lower housing affordability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 102088"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144852139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-01Epub Date: 2025-05-12DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102065
Noah J. Durst , Elise Breshears , Esther Sullivan , Danna Gutierrez Lanza
In recent years, states and municipalities have taken steps to reform land use and zoning regulations. While prior research documents that density zoning contributes to residential segregation on the basis of income and race, the mechanisms remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we examine the relationship between density zoning, neighborhood type, and residential segregation. To do so, we use a national dataset of building footprints and machine learning to develop a neighborhood typology based on building characteristics. We then use land cover data to examine changes in building development in these neighborhoods between 2001 and 2019. Finally, we pair these data with demographics at the municipality level to examine changes in income and race between 2000 and 2020. In cross-sectional analyses, we find that density zoning is strongly associated with building characteristics and the presence of different neighborhood types. Although we find that density zoning is also associated with income and race, the effects are attenuated when accounting for neighborhood types. Our results provide new evidence into the ”chain of exclusion” between density zoning and residential segregation, as we find that density zoning is primarily associated with reductions in the supply of single-family housing along the urban fringe. Lastly, we find that maximum density restrictions and changes in maximum density cannot explain the changes in demographics that we observe during this time period. We do, however, find some evidence of a relationship between changes in building development and changes in demographics. These results demonstrate the potential effects of upzoning policies.
{"title":"Density zoning, neighborhood type, and exclusion by income and race","authors":"Noah J. Durst , Elise Breshears , Esther Sullivan , Danna Gutierrez Lanza","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102065","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102065","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, states and municipalities have taken steps to reform land use and zoning regulations. While prior research documents that density zoning contributes to residential segregation on the basis of income and race, the mechanisms remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we examine the relationship between density zoning, neighborhood type, and residential segregation. To do so, we use a national dataset of building footprints and machine learning to develop a neighborhood typology based on building characteristics. We then use land cover data to examine changes in building development in these neighborhoods between 2001 and 2019. Finally, we pair these data with demographics at the municipality level to examine changes in income and race between 2000 and 2020. In cross-sectional analyses, we find that density zoning is strongly associated with building characteristics and the presence of different neighborhood types. Although we find that density zoning is also associated with income and race, the effects are attenuated when accounting for neighborhood types. Our results provide new evidence into the ”chain of exclusion” between density zoning and residential segregation, as we find that density zoning is primarily associated with reductions in the supply of single-family housing along the urban fringe. Lastly, we find that maximum density restrictions and changes in maximum density cannot explain the changes in demographics that we observe during this time period. We do, however, find some evidence of a relationship between changes in building development and changes in demographics. These results demonstrate the potential effects of upzoning policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 102065"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144178314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-01Epub Date: 2025-05-05DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102068
Paul A. Brehm , Alecia Cassidy
This paper investigates the determinants of households’ central air conditioner (AC) replacements, one of the larger energy using durable goods that households purchase. We do not find evidence that hot weather or high humidity significantly affect AC replacement rates. However, higher electricity prices and bills increase the likelihood of AC replacement. These findings suggest that clear financial motivators like price incentives could be an effective tool in policymakers’ climate change arsenal going forward.
{"title":"AC replacement: Heat of the moment or cool-headed choice?","authors":"Paul A. Brehm , Alecia Cassidy","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102068","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102068","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the determinants of households’ central air conditioner (AC) replacements, one of the larger energy using durable goods that households purchase. We do not find evidence that hot weather or high humidity significantly affect AC replacement rates. However, higher electricity prices and bills increase the likelihood of AC replacement. These findings suggest that clear financial motivators like price incentives could be an effective tool in policymakers’ climate change arsenal going forward.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 102068"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143942858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-01Epub Date: 2025-04-07DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102063
Christina Stacy , Timothy R. Hodge , Timothy M. Komarek , Christopher Davis , Alena Stern , Owen Noble , Jorge Morales-Burnett , Amy Rogin
We generate the first cross-city panel dataset of rent control reforms and estimate their effect on the supply of rental housing overall and across varying levels of affordability. To identify reforms, we use machine learning algorithms to analyze over 76,000 newspaper articles from 7000 news outlets, spanning 27 metropolitan areas and >4000 census places across the US between 2000 and April of 2021. We then manually validate identified articles to ensure accuracy and combine these data with rental unit counts by affordability level, created using Census microdata. To assess the impact of rent control reforms on rental supply, we employ a two-way fixed effects model with place specific time trends and examine the robustness of our results with a staggered treatment design. Our results provide evidence that more restrictive rent control reforms are associated with a 10-percent reduction in the total number of rental units in a city. When stratified by affordability (based on U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development definitions of affordability), these reforms lead to an increase in the availability of units affordable to extremely low-income households by about 52 % (with a lower-bound effect equal to 11 %), offset by a decline in units affordable to higher-income households of about 46 % (with a lower-bound estimate equal to 4 %). These findings highlight the complex trade-offs inherent to rent control policies, illustrating differential impacts across income groups and underscoring the nuanced nature of such interventions.
{"title":"Rent control and the supply of affordable housing","authors":"Christina Stacy , Timothy R. Hodge , Timothy M. Komarek , Christopher Davis , Alena Stern , Owen Noble , Jorge Morales-Burnett , Amy Rogin","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102063","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102063","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We generate the first cross-city panel dataset of rent control reforms and estimate their effect on the supply of rental housing overall and across varying levels of affordability. To identify reforms, we use machine learning algorithms to analyze over 76,000 newspaper articles from 7000 news outlets, spanning 27 metropolitan areas and >4000 census places across the US between 2000 and April of 2021. We then manually validate identified articles to ensure accuracy and combine these data with rental unit counts by affordability level, created using Census microdata. To assess the impact of rent control reforms on rental supply, we employ a two-way fixed effects model with place specific time trends and examine the robustness of our results with a staggered treatment design. Our results provide evidence that more restrictive rent control reforms are associated with a 10-percent reduction in the total number of rental units in a city. When stratified by affordability (based on U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development definitions of affordability), these reforms lead to an increase in the availability of units affordable to extremely low-income households by about 52 % (with a lower-bound effect equal to 11 %), offset by a decline in units affordable to higher-income households of about 46 % (with a lower-bound estimate equal to 4 %). These findings highlight the complex trade-offs inherent to rent control policies, illustrating differential impacts across income groups and underscoring the nuanced nature of such interventions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 102063"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143826433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-01Epub Date: 2025-02-26DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102048
Changha Jin, Sungho Yun
This study explores how loss aversion influences seller behavior in the housing market, employing both the reservation rule and the number-of-offers rule approaches. We show that loss aversion can increase the reservation value in an infinite-time model under the reservation rule, and a disposition effect can arise solely from reference dependence with risk-neutral sellers, consistent with prior research. In contrast, in a finite-time model with specific deadlines, the prospect of forced sales at a loss in the final period incentivizes sellers to opt for earlier sales, leading to dynamic fluctuations in the reservation value, both upwards and downwards. This finding adds a novel dimension to the existing literature. Furthermore, employing the number-of-offers rule, we find that loss aversion can lead sellers to await more offers, supporting the negative correlation between prices and time on the market.
{"title":"The impact of loss aversion on seller behavior in the housing market","authors":"Changha Jin, Sungho Yun","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102048","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102048","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores how loss aversion influences seller behavior in the housing market, employing both the reservation rule and the number-of-offers rule approaches. We show that loss aversion can increase the reservation value in an infinite-time model under the reservation rule, and a disposition effect can arise solely from reference dependence with risk-neutral sellers, consistent with prior research. In contrast, in a finite-time model with specific deadlines, the prospect of forced sales at a loss in the final period incentivizes sellers to opt for earlier sales, leading to dynamic fluctuations in the reservation value, both upwards and downwards. This finding adds a novel dimension to the existing literature. Furthermore, employing the number-of-offers rule, we find that loss aversion can lead sellers to await more offers, supporting the negative correlation between prices and time on the market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 102048"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143551608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-01Epub Date: 2025-04-18DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102066
Dogan Tirtiroglu , Ercan Tirtiroglu
Choosing the right combination of mortgage interest rate and discount points is important for real estate investors to minimize their cost of capital. This paper subscribes to Myers’ (1974) Adjusted Present Value (APV) method to study the effect of capital structure on the mortgage choice. An important implication and advantage of subscribing to the APV method is that an investor’s risk aversion does not affect the investor’s mortgage choice. Our framework relies on the daily observable, and objectively and market-determined interest rates and, by avoiding the need to estimate a risk-adjusted discount rate, offers a simpler and cleaner platform for empirical tests on the mortgage choice questions than those proposed in the extant literature.
{"title":"Capital structure, the adjusted present value, and mortgage choice","authors":"Dogan Tirtiroglu , Ercan Tirtiroglu","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102066","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102066","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Choosing the right combination of mortgage interest rate and discount points is important for real estate investors to minimize their cost of capital. This paper subscribes to Myers’ (1974) Adjusted Present Value (APV) method to study the effect of capital structure on the mortgage choice. An important implication and advantage of subscribing to the APV method is that an investor’s risk aversion does not affect the investor’s mortgage choice. Our framework relies on the <em>daily observable</em>, and <em>objectively</em> and <em>market-determined interest rates</em> and, by avoiding the need to estimate a risk-adjusted discount rate, offers a simpler and cleaner platform for empirical tests on the mortgage choice questions than those proposed in the extant literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 102066"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144068460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-01Epub Date: 2025-03-06DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102047
Eilidh Geddes , Nicole Holz
When designing rent control regulations, policy makers aim to create regulations that ensure affordable and stable housing for current tenants while minimizing exits from the rental market by landlords. Vacancy decontrol provisions that allow rent re-sets between tenants intend to strike a balance between a lower rent burden for current tenants and future potential profitability for landlords. However, such provisions also increase the incentive for landlords to evict tenants. Such evictions reduce both the anti-displacement and rent reduction effects of rent control. To study the effects of rent control on eviction behavior, we exploit variation across ZIP codes in policy exposure to the passage of the 1994 rent control referendum in San Francisco. We find that a ZIP code with the average level of treatment experiences an additional 34 eviction notices—an 83% increase—and an additional 13 wrongful eviction claims—a 125% increase. These effects were concentrated in low-income ZIP codes and were larger in years when average rent prices rose faster than the allowed rent increases for controlled units.
{"title":"Rational eviction: How landlords use evictions in response to rent control","authors":"Eilidh Geddes , Nicole Holz","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102047","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102047","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When designing rent control regulations, policy makers aim to create regulations that ensure affordable and stable housing for current tenants while minimizing exits from the rental market by landlords. Vacancy decontrol provisions that allow rent re-sets between tenants intend to strike a balance between a lower rent burden for current tenants and future potential profitability for landlords. However, such provisions also increase the incentive for landlords to evict tenants. Such evictions reduce both the anti-displacement and rent reduction effects of rent control. To study the effects of rent control on eviction behavior, we exploit variation across ZIP codes in policy exposure to the passage of the 1994 rent control referendum in San Francisco. We find that a ZIP code with the average level of treatment experiences an additional 34 eviction notices—an 83% increase—and an additional 13 wrongful eviction claims—a 125% increase. These effects were concentrated in low-income ZIP codes and were larger in years when average rent prices rose faster than the allowed rent increases for controlled units.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 102047"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143621078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-01Epub Date: 2025-04-22DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102070
Tiantian Dai , Shenyi Jiang , Yang Ming , Xinyi Zhang
Local governments in China have implemented a series of education and real estate policies to promote educational equity and mitigate the escalation of housing prices within school attendance zones. This paper examines the spatial spillover effects of changes in the probability of school enrollment, stemming from the implementation of the Multi-School Zoning Policies in Xicheng district, Beijing, on housing prices in neighboring districts. We first present a theoretical model and derive testable predictions. Subsequently, we utilize transaction-level data on previously owned homes to evaluate spillover effects in addition to direct treatment effects. A flexible event study model is employed to incorporate both the anticipatory effect induced by the early policy announcement and the post-treatment effect. Our findings highlight significant negative direct impacts on Xicheng’s average total home sale price (1.5 % to 2.8 %) and noteworthy positive spillover effects on home sale prices in neighboring districts (1.1 % to 1.6 %). Furthermore, the spillover effect operates as a general equilibrium effect, being more pronounced for housing units in better school attendance zones and that are smaller and closer to Xicheng district. Our findings suggest that in formulating regional policies to stabilize housing prices, policy makers should account for spillover effects to ensure that these policies align with the broader objectives of a larger region.
{"title":"The spatial spillover effect of the multi-school zoning policies","authors":"Tiantian Dai , Shenyi Jiang , Yang Ming , Xinyi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102070","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102070","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Local governments in China have implemented a series of education and real estate policies to promote educational equity and mitigate the escalation of housing prices within school attendance zones. This paper examines the spatial spillover effects of changes in the probability of school enrollment, stemming from the implementation of the Multi-School Zoning Policies in Xicheng district, Beijing, on housing prices in neighboring districts. We first present a theoretical model and derive testable predictions. Subsequently, we utilize transaction-level data on previously owned homes to evaluate spillover effects in addition to direct treatment effects. A flexible event study model is employed to incorporate both the anticipatory effect induced by the early policy announcement and the post-treatment effect. Our findings highlight significant negative direct impacts on Xicheng’s average total home sale price (1.5 % to 2.8 %) and noteworthy positive spillover effects on home sale prices in neighboring districts (1.1 % to 1.6 %). Furthermore, the spillover effect operates as a general equilibrium effect, being more pronounced for housing units in better school attendance zones and that are smaller and closer to Xicheng district. Our findings suggest that in formulating regional policies to stabilize housing prices, policy makers should account for spillover effects to ensure that these policies align with the broader objectives of a larger region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 102070"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143898995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-01Epub Date: 2025-04-08DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102064
Sofia Fritzson , Joakim Jansson
We present novel evidence from the first correspondence study investigating the effect of individual non-cisgender signals in the housing market. In a preregistered trial, 800 fictitious letters were sent to rental apartment landlords in Sweden. Cismale applicants received fewer positive responses compared to ciswomen, while non-cisgender applicants had response rates that fell between those of ciswomen and cismen. The effects were strongest for apartments located outside of major cities. Non-cisgender applicants were also more often asked to clarify their gender. Additionally, cismale applicants were more likely to be addressed by the wrong name and were less frequently asked if they would bring any cohabitants.
{"title":"Living in the gender spectrum: Evidence from non-cisgender applications in the rental housing market","authors":"Sofia Fritzson , Joakim Jansson","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102064","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102064","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We present novel evidence from the first correspondence study investigating the effect of individual non-cisgender signals in the housing market. In a preregistered trial, 800 fictitious letters were sent to rental apartment landlords in Sweden. Cismale applicants received fewer positive responses compared to ciswomen, while non-cisgender applicants had response rates that fell between those of ciswomen and cismen. The effects were strongest for apartments located outside of major cities. Non-cisgender applicants were also more often asked to clarify their gender. Additionally, cismale applicants were more likely to be addressed by the wrong name and were less frequently asked if they would bring any cohabitants.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 102064"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143860527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-01Epub Date: 2025-03-17DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102060
Dongxiao Niu , Piet Eichholtz , Nils Kok
This paper examines the impact of information provision on the capitalization of flood risk in the housing market. We exploit a climate risk disclosure program and a subsequent flooding event in the Netherlands, using a difference-in-differences framework. The results indicate that annual flood risk communication letters sent to residents in flood-prone areas have minimal impact on housing prices. In contrast, a small-scale flood event triggers a 3.4 % decline in house prices, demonstrating the effectiveness of direct experience in influencing price adjustments. This price effect is short-lived and is observed only among local buyers who have access to both the letters and firsthand flood experience, while non-local buyers remain unresponsive. We also observe an increase in the time on market and listing-to-sales ratio among local buyers, alongside a rise in the renter-occupied household ratio following flood risk information provision. Small-sized, high-educated, and risk-averse families tend to relocate from the high-risk area. The results in this paper provide insights for policymakers grappling with how to reduce information asymmetry in housing markets in the face of increasing climate risks.
{"title":"Asymmetric information provision and flood risk salience","authors":"Dongxiao Niu , Piet Eichholtz , Nils Kok","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102060","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102060","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of information provision on the capitalization of flood risk in the housing market. We exploit a climate risk disclosure program and a subsequent flooding event in the Netherlands, using a difference-in-differences framework. The results indicate that annual flood risk communication letters sent to residents in flood-prone areas have minimal impact on housing prices. In contrast, a small-scale flood event triggers a 3.4 % decline in house prices, demonstrating the effectiveness of direct experience in influencing price adjustments. This price effect is short-lived and is observed only among local buyers who have access to both the letters and firsthand flood experience, while non-local buyers remain unresponsive. We also observe an increase in the time on market and listing-to-sales ratio among local buyers, alongside a rise in the renter-occupied household ratio following flood risk information provision. Small-sized, high-educated, and risk-averse families tend to relocate from the high-risk area. The results in this paper provide insights for policymakers grappling with how to reduce information asymmetry in housing markets in the face of increasing climate risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 102060"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143704757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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