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Evaluation of Traffic Sign Occlusion for Autonomous Vehicles Using Point Cloud Data 利用点云数据评估自动驾驶汽车的交通标志遮挡情况
Pub Date : 2024-08-17 DOI: 10.1177/03611981241255359
Maged Gouda, Karim El-Basyouny
This work aims to assess the occlusion of traffic signs for autonomous vehicles (AVs) using point cloud data, while addressing the limitations and recommendations of previous studies. Dense point cloud data are used to create a digital twin of existing roads and simulate a set of AV sensors within this environment. Convex polyhedrons or hulls with an octree data structure and semantic segmentation were used to assess traffic sign occlusion. Using the developed method, several case studies are presented to identify locations with occluded traffic signs for AVs. This work can help infrastructure operators and AV professionals make data-driven decisions about smart physical infrastructure investments for AVs.
这项工作旨在利用点云数据评估自动驾驶汽车(AV)对交通标志的遮挡情况,同时解决以往研究的局限性并提出建议。密集的点云数据用于创建现有道路的数字孪生,并在此环境中模拟一组自动驾驶汽车传感器。使用具有八叉树数据结构和语义分割的凸多面体或船体来评估交通标志遮挡情况。利用所开发的方法,介绍了几项案例研究,以确定视听设备交通标志闭塞的位置。这项工作可以帮助基础设施运营商和自动驾驶汽车专业人士就自动驾驶汽车的智能物理基础设施投资做出数据驱动型决策。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating Indian Commuters’ Perceived Crime Risk on Autonomous Public Buses and Ride-Pooling Services 印度乘客对自动驾驶公共汽车和拼车服务的犯罪风险认知调查
Pub Date : 2024-08-17 DOI: 10.1177/03611981241257514
Amjid Pervez, Naveed Farooz Marazi, Bandhan Bandhu Majumdar, Mao Ruizhi, Jaeyoung Lee, Prasanta K. Sahu
Autonomous vehicle technologies are anticipated to transform road transportation systems, promising enhanced traffic safety and efficiency across different modes, including public buses (PB) and ride-pooling services (RPS). However, in India, there is a growing security concern/fear of crime concerning conventional PB and RPS because of the recent rise in crimes committed on them. Moreover, the introduction of driverless modes of PB and RPS may further heighten commuters’ crime concerns on such services because of the absence of a driver. Thus, this study investigates the acceptance of autonomous public buses (APB) and autonomous ride-pooling services (ARPS), as well as how commuters’ characteristics influence the perceived risks of crime and victimization and their willingness to use the modes. To achieve this, a stated preference survey was designed and conducted across India. The survey resulted in 732 complete responses. The results show that socioeconomic attributes, vehicle automation, and security-related measures significantly influence commuters’ perceived fear of crime and willingness to use APB and ARPS in India. More specifically, young commuters demonstrate higher willingness to use APB and ARPS, while females exhibit lower willingness to use APB and ARPS. In addition, the presence of a security officer on these modes decreases commuters’ concerns about crime. Moreover, travel distance is positively associated with commuters’ perceived level of crime and victimization, while it has a negative relationship with their unwillingness to use APB and ARPS. APB and ARPS are yet to be introduced in India, and Indian commuters have not experienced the security concerns associated with them; thus, the results of this study can serve as the base for guideline formulation for security concerns in India. Based on the results of this study, a set of policy implications, such as female-only transit units, enhancing security measures on the automated modes, and design framework and infrastructure, were proposed. These policy implications can be instrumental in increasing the acceptability of APB and ARPS in India and other countries with similar characteristics.
预计自动驾驶汽车技术将改变道路交通系统,有望提高包括公共汽车(PB)和拼车服务(RPS)在内的不同模式的交通安全和效率。然而,在印度,对传统公共汽车和合乘服务的安全担忧/犯罪恐惧日益增加,因为最近在这些交通工具上发生的犯罪率有所上升。此外,由于没有司机,无人驾驶 PB 和 RPS 的引入可能会进一步加剧乘客对此类服务的犯罪担忧。因此,本研究调查了人们对自动驾驶公共汽车(APB)和自动驾驶拼车服务(ARPS)的接受程度,以及乘客的特征如何影响他们对犯罪和受害风险的感知以及使用这些模式的意愿。为此,我们设计并在印度各地开展了一项陈述偏好调查。调查共收到 732 份完整的答复。结果表明,社会经济属性、车辆自动化程度和安全相关措施对印度乘客对犯罪的恐惧感以及使用 APB 和 ARPS 的意愿有显著影响。更具体地说,年轻乘客更愿意使用 APB 和 ARPS,而女性乘客使用 APB 和 ARPS 的意愿较低。此外,在这些交通工具上配备安保人员会降低乘客对犯罪的担忧。此外,旅行距离与乘客感知到的犯罪和受害程度呈正相关,而与他们不愿意使用 APB 和 ARPS 呈负相关。印度尚未引入 APB 和 ARPS,印度乘客也没有经历过与之相关的安全问题;因此,本研究的结果可以作为印度安全问题指导方针制定的基础。根据这项研究的结果,提出了一系列政策影响,如女性专用公交单元、加强自动驾驶模式的安全措施以及设计框架和基础设施。这些政策影响有助于提高印度和其他具有类似特点的国家对自动旅客捷运系统和自动旅客捷运系统的接受程度。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of Policy Mix on Urban Road Network Capacity Assessment Considering Shared Mobility 政策组合对城市路网容量评估的影响(考虑共享交通
Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1177/03611981241262298
Ziyan Ju, Muqing Du
In the context of the trend for green travel, the emergence of shared mobility, represented by e-hailing and ridesharing, provides behavioral richness for travelers. Consequently, the authorities that devote themselves to balancing supply and demand in multimodal networks are concerned with incorporating shared mobility into transportation planning and formulating reasonable policy measures. A novel capacity model incorporating a policy mix is developed here as a bi-level programming problem in which the lower-level model is a combined modal split and traffic assignment considering elastic demand (CMSTA-ED) problem, while the upper-level model maximizes the origin–destination (OD) demand multiplier. Integrating the capacity model (the effectiveness index) with social welfare (the implementability index) can account for the synergy, facilitation, and potential contradiction of policy mixes. Numerical experiments validate the characteristics of shared mobility as a supplement to poorly performing public transit under its poor performance. It also examines the policy mix between a public-transit priority subsidy, parking charging, and the shared-mobility subsidy to discover the positive coordination that any individual policy cannot satisfy. This study provides implementable insights for further formulating rational policy-mix strategies on shared mobility to promote the sustainable usage of shared mobility.
在绿色出行的大趋势下,以网络打车和共享出行为代表的共享出行方式的出现为旅客提供了丰富的行为方式。因此,致力于平衡多式联运网络供需关系的相关部门开始关注将共享交通纳入交通规划并制定合理的政策措施。本文开发了一个包含政策组合的新型运力模型,它是一个双层程序设计问题,其中低层模型是一个考虑弹性需求的组合模式拆分和交通分配(CMSTA-ED)问题,而高层模型则是最大化出发地-目的地(OD)需求乘数。将容量模型(有效性指标)与社会福利(可实施性指标)相结合,可以考虑政策组合的协同性、促进性和潜在矛盾。数值实验验证了在公共交通表现不佳的情况下,共享出行作为公共交通补充的特点。研究还考察了公共交通优先补贴、停车收费和共享交通补贴之间的政策组合,以发现任何单项政策都无法满足的积极协调性。这项研究为进一步制定合理的共享交通政策组合策略,促进共享交通的可持续使用提供了可实施的启示。
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引用次数: 0
Residence-Workplace Identification and Validation Based on Mobile Phone Data: A Case Study in a Large-Scale Urban Agglomeration in China 基于手机数据的居住地-工作地识别与验证:中国大规模城市群案例研究
Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1177/03611981241270163
Yang Zhou, Quan Yuan, Chao Yang, Tangyi Guo, Xiaoyi Ma, Wenyong Sun, Tianren Yang
Residence-workplace identification is a fundamental task in mobile phone data analysis, but it faces certain challenges in sparse data processing and results validation because of the lack of ground-truth labels. Previous studies have generally relied on frequency-based methods for inference and trip-based metrics for validation, posing limitations in reliability and efficiency. This paper aims to fill this gap by developing a systematic approach that ranges from data error categorization and processing, feature relevance examination and parameter optimization, and the development of performance metrics considering both residence and workplace validation. For residence-workplace identification, we use a spatiotemporal closeness criterion to deal with the sparsity of data and develop effective dwelling time to enhance frequency-based methods, using one-month cellular signaling records from nine cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in China. For validation, we propose a residence-workplace pair metric based on the population-adjusted number of users, enabling more efficient evaluation of home and work locations than trip-based metrics. Results show that the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for the Nanjing and Shanghai cases are 5.04% and 8.46%, respectively. Adopted and verified in the large-scale urban agglomeration, the proposed method would be reliable for extracting residence and workplace from low-resolution mobile phone data and contributing to a more accurate identification of urban commuting patterns.
居住地-工作地识别是手机数据分析中的一项基本任务,但由于缺乏地面实况标签,它在稀疏数据处理和结果验证方面面临着一定的挑战。以往的研究一般依赖基于频率的方法进行推断,基于行程的指标进行验证,在可靠性和效率方面存在局限性。本文旨在通过开发一种系统方法来填补这一空白,该方法包括数据错误分类和处理、特征相关性检查和参数优化,以及考虑居住地和工作地验证的性能指标开发。在居住地-工作地识别方面,我们使用时空接近性准则来处理数据稀疏性问题,并利用中国长三角城市群九个城市一个月的蜂窝信令记录,开发了有效居住时间来增强基于频率的方法。为了进行验证,我们提出了一种基于人口调整后用户数量的居住地-工作地配对指标,与基于行程的指标相比,它能更有效地评估居住地和工作地。结果表明,南京和上海案例的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别为 5.04% 和 8.46%。通过在大规模城市群中的应用和验证,所提出的方法可以可靠地从低分辨率手机数据中提取居住地和工作地,有助于更准确地识别城市通勤模式。
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引用次数: 0
Review of Risk Assessment Methods for Cybersecurity Attacks on Road Network and Intelligent Transportation System Applications 路网和智能交通系统应用网络安全攻击风险评估方法综述
Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1177/03611981241264276
Natchaphon Leungbootnak, Kevin Heaslip
One of the most discussed infrastructure issues of our time is cybersecurity. A transportation system that connects not only people but also logistics to make the community around the world closer is one of the critical infrastructures requiring cybersecurity to perform its functions. Transportation systems include aviation, maritime, pipeline, railroad, and road networks. This study focuses only on the roadway network system. Cutting-edge technologies related to highway networks, such as variable message signs, vehicular ad hoc networks, and in-vehicle networks, have been developed to improve safety and efficiency. Those technologies make transportation systems more complex and integrated, bringing many potential vulnerabilities and cyber risks. This can attract an adversary to attack and exploit the system. The number of cybersecurity attacks on transportation systems has been growing for many years. However, it is not feasible to protect against all cybersecurity attacks in the system. The risk assessment concept is proposed to prioritize risk resulting from attacks to support decision-makers in formulating appropriate policies or countermeasures. This study reviews risk assessment methods for cybersecurity attacks on road networks and intelligent transportation system applications. Three potential risk assessment methods are examined for road network systems: the National Institute of Standards and Technology Special Publication 800-30, Attack Potential and Damage Potential, and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.
网络安全是当代讨论最多的基础设施问题之一。运输系统不仅连接人与人,还连接物流,使世界各地的社会联系更加紧密,是需要网络安全来实现其功能的关键基础设施之一。运输系统包括航空、海运、管道、铁路和公路网络。本研究只关注公路网络系统。与公路网络相关的尖端技术,如可变信息标志、车辆特设网络和车载网络等,都是为了提高安全性和效率而开发的。这些技术使交通系统变得更加复杂和集成,带来了许多潜在的漏洞和网络风险。这可能会吸引对手对系统进行攻击和利用。多年来,针对运输系统的网络安全攻击一直在增加。然而,要防范系统中的所有网络安全攻击并不可行。风险评估概念的提出是为了对攻击造成的风险进行优先排序,以支持决策者制定适当的政策或对策。本研究回顾了道路网络和智能交通系统应用中网络安全攻击的风险评估方法。针对公路网络系统,研究了三种潜在的风险评估方法:美国国家标准与技术研究院特别出版物 800-30《攻击潜力和破坏潜力》以及模糊层次分析法。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of Conventional Surrogate Indicators of Safety for Connected and Automated Vehicles in Car Following at Signalized Intersections 评估互联车辆和自动驾驶车辆在信号灯控制交叉路口跟车过程中的常规安全替代指标
Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1177/03611981241265849
Wooseok Do, Nicolas Saunier, Luis Miranda-Moreno
The driving behaviors of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) will differ from those of human-driven vehicles (HDVs) because the CAVs’ driving decisions are controlled by computers. Because of the limited amount of crash data for CAVs, researchers have relied on surrogate measures of safety to assess their safety impacts. However, they often use the same safety indicators for CAVs that were used for HDVs, raising questions about the adequacy of the safety indicators for CAVs. This study aims to investigate the suitability of using conventional safety indicators for CAVs. To achieve this, we evaluated eight safety indicators used for CAVs in the literature: time-to-collision (TTC), post-encroachment time (PET), time-exposed TTC, time-integrated TTC, deceleration rate to avoid a crash (DRAC), crash-potential index, rear-end-collision risk index, and potential index for collision with urgent deceleration (PICUD). For the evaluation, we first simulate CAVs on an approaching lane of signalized intersections using the acceleration-control algorithm. The algorithm replaces the HDV trajectories with CAVs for mixed simulations where HDVs and CAVs coexist. Analyzing the simulation output, we examined the safety indicators for the various car-following scenarios and the CAV proportions. The findings suggest that PET and PICUD can yield different safety implications for CAVs because of their small-gap car-following characteristics. Ignoring such characteristics may lead to interpreting the small-gap car-following situations as simply dangerous traffic interactions for CAVs. The car-following experiments indicate that TTC, PET, and DRAC are insufficient in measuring the safety implications when successive vehicles operate at similar speeds for CAVs.
联网自动驾驶汽车(CAVs)的驾驶行为将不同于人类驾驶汽车(HDVs),因为 CAVs 的驾驶决策是由计算机控制的。由于 CAV 的碰撞数据量有限,研究人员一直依靠替代安全措施来评估其安全影响。然而,他们往往使用与高清车相同的安全指标来评估 CAV,从而引发了 CAV 安全指标是否适当的问题。本研究旨在调查传统安全指标是否适用于 CAV。为此,我们评估了文献中用于 CAV 的八个安全指标:碰撞时间(TTC)、碰撞后时间(PET)、暴露时间 TTC、时间积分 TTC、避免碰撞的减速率(DRAC)、碰撞潜在指数、追尾碰撞风险指数和紧急减速碰撞潜在指数(PICUD)。在评估过程中,我们首先使用加速控制算法在信号灯路口的接近车道上模拟 CAV。在高密度车和低密度车并存的混合模拟中,该算法将高密度车的轨迹替换为低密度车的轨迹。通过分析模拟输出,我们考察了各种跟车情况下的安全指标以及 CAV 的比例。研究结果表明,由于PET和PICUD的小间隙跟车特性,它们会对CAV产生不同的安全影响。忽略这些特点可能会导致将小间隙跟车情况简单地解释为 CAV 的危险交通交互。跟车实验表明,当连续车辆以类似速度行驶时,TTC、PET 和 DRAC 不足以衡量对 CAV 的安全影响。
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引用次数: 0
Cost-Effective Pavement Condition Survey for Municipal Road Networks 经济高效的市政道路网路面状况调查
Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1177/03611981241264275
Christian Hecht, Surya Teja Swarna, Parth Bhavsar, Yusuf Mehta, Taha Bouhsine
One of the most challenging issues for municipalities in the U.S. is to secure federal funding, state funding, or both, for local roadway improvement. Existing frameworks such as manual data collection, light detection and ranging have proven to be expensive and cumbersome. In this paper, a low-cost pavement management framework is proposed using artificial intelligence (AI). AI has solidified itself across industries as a revolutionary advancement that can automate many tasks that were performed by humans. AI has the potential to make roadway assessment easier and more cost-effective than ever, but this application has been hindered by dataset quality and quantity. Roadway datasets are often imbalanced, containing many more images of certain deformations than others. This decreases the performance of AI models. In this paper, different methods of pavement dataset labeling are tested to gain an understanding of which is best for pavement distress detection using a classification neural network. An AI-friendly pavement condition index is designed to give a clear indicator of the current pavement condition and provide a metric by which to rank the roads based on the need to repair them. The best-performing AI model is incorporated into the low-cost pavement management framework.
对于美国的市政当局来说,最具挑战性的问题之一就是如何获得联邦资金、州资金,或者两者兼而有之,以改善当地的道路状况。事实证明,人工数据收集、光探测和测距等现有框架既昂贵又繁琐。本文提出了一种使用人工智能(AI)的低成本路面管理框架。人工智能作为一种革命性的进步,已经在各行各业得到了巩固,它可以将许多由人类完成的任务自动化。人工智能有可能使路面评估变得比以往任何时候都更简单、更具成本效益,但数据集的质量和数量阻碍了这一应用。道路数据集通常是不平衡的,包含的某些变形图像比其他图像多得多。这就降低了人工智能模型的性能。本文测试了不同的路面数据集标注方法,以了解哪种方法最适合使用分类神经网络进行路面状况检测。本文设计了一种人工智能友好型路面状况指数,以提供当前路面状况的明确指标,并根据维修需求对道路进行排序。表现最佳的人工智能模型被纳入低成本路面管理框架。
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引用次数: 0
Tensor Decomposition for Spatiotemporal Mobility Pattern Learning with Mobile Phone Data 利用手机数据进行时空移动模式学习的张量分解技术
Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1177/03611981241270166
Suxia Gong, Ismaïl Saadi, Jacques Teller, Mario Cools
Detecting urban mobility patterns is crucial for policymakers in urban and transport planning. Mobile phone data have been increasingly deployed to measure the spatiotemporal variations in human mobility. This work applied non-negative Tucker decomposition (NTD) to mobile phone-based origin–destination (O-D) matrices to explore mobility patterns’ latent spatial and temporal relationships in the province of Liège, Belgium. Four [Formula: see text] traffic tensors have been built for one regular weekday, one regular weekend day, one holiday weekday, and one holiday weekend day, respectively. The proposed method inferred spatial clusters and temporal patterns while interpreting the correlation between spatial clusters and temporal patterns through geographical visualization. As a result, we found the similarity of O-D and destination–origin (D-O) patterns and the symmetry for the trips of the temporal patterns with evening peak and morning peaks on the weekday. Moreover, we investigated the attraction of different spatial clusters with two temporal patterns on a regular weekday and validated the reconstructed demand using population counts and commuting matrices. Finally, the differences in spatial and temporal interactions have been addressed in detail.
检测城市流动模式对城市和交通规划决策者至关重要。人们越来越多地使用手机数据来测量人类流动的时空变化。这项研究将非负塔克分解(NTD)应用于基于手机的出发地-目的地(O-D)矩阵,以探索比利时列日省流动模式的潜在时空关系。四个[公式:见正文]交通张量分别针对一个常规工作日、一个常规周末日、一个假日工作日和一个假日周末日建立。提出的方法推断了空间集群和时间模式,同时通过地理可视化解释了空间集群和时间模式之间的相关性。结果,我们发现了 "O-D "模式和 "目的地-出发地(D-O)"模式的相似性,以及时间模式中工作日晚高峰和早高峰出行的对称性。此外,我们还研究了工作日常规时间内两种时间模式下不同空间集群的吸引力,并利用人口统计和通勤矩阵验证了重建的需求。最后,我们还详细讨论了空间和时间相互作用的差异。
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引用次数: 0
Post-Purchase Trip Heterogeneity: Exploring the Impact of Free and Paid Return Deliveries on Shopping and Transport Mode Choices in the USA 购物后行程异质性:探索免费和付费退货对美国购物和交通方式选择的影响
Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1177/03611981241270155
Oleksandr Rossolov, José Holguín-Veras, Yusak O. Susilo
This paper explores aspects of the post-purchase trips generated by the necessity to return purchased clothing to the shops. Particular focus is given to online shopping that has become common for clothing purchases. This study’s novelty lies in delving into the underlying reasons behind post-purchase trips, particularly those initiated when customers seek to return clothing to retailers. It examines the impact of free and paid return delivery options as key factors driving consumers’ decisions in relation to clothing returns. The study consists of two branches and leverages the random utility maximization theory. The first branch focuses on the impact of free and paid return options on the preferred shopping channels by utilizing a stated preference dataset collected from 507 US online shoppers. The second branch of this study employs the revealed preference dataset and aims to explore the return trip behavior. The willingness-to-pay values estimated for the free return delivery option are higher among female online shoppers compared with males—$7.42 and $6.65 per delivery, respectively. It was found that among the identified “returners,” 84.62% of males and 79.91% of females showed a strong reliance on private cars for their return trips. The potential environmental consequences of return trips were evaluated, focusing on the case of the USA. Additionally, the estimated marginal probability effect revealed that factors such as an aging population, car ownership, and number of children in households positively influence car usage for post-purchase trips. The study’s implications for stakeholders are discussed.
本文探讨了因必须将购买的服装退还给商店而产生的购后旅行的各个方面。本文特别关注已成为服装购买普遍现象的网上购物。本研究的新颖之处在于深入探讨购后旅行背后的根本原因,尤其是顾客寻求将服装退还给零售商时引发的旅行。本研究探讨了免费和付费退货送货选项的影响,这些选项是促使消费者做出服装退货决定的关键因素。研究包括两个分支,并利用了随机效用最大化理论。第一个分支利用从 507 名美国网购者收集的陈述偏好数据集,重点研究免费和付费退货选项对首选购物渠道的影响。本研究的第二个分支采用揭示偏好数据集,旨在探讨退货行为。与男性相比,女性网购者对免费退货送货选项的支付意愿值更高--每次送货分别为 7.42 美元和 6.65 美元。研究发现,在已识别的 "退货者 "中,84.62% 的男性和 79.91% 的女性在退货时非常依赖私家车。以美国为例,评估了回程旅行对环境的潜在影响。此外,估算的边际概率效应显示,人口老龄化、汽车保有量和家庭子女数量等因素对购车后出行的汽车使用率有积极影响。本研究还讨论了对利益相关者的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling Interdependent Infrastructure System Vulnerability with Imprecise Information Using Two Fuzzy Inference Systems 利用两个模糊推理系统为信息不精确的相互依存基础设施系统脆弱性建模
Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1177/03611981241270153
Shidong Pan, Kyle Bathgate, Zhe Han, Jingran Sun, Zhanmin Zhang
Infrastructure systems play important roles in economic development and the social quality of life. Interdependencies exist between infrastructure systems: a functional disruption in one system can affect dependent systems, thereby escalating the impacts. It is vital to properly model interdependencies to understand the full impacts of disruptive events on infrastructure systems. Quantitative data on infrastructure interdependency is often difficult to obtain or unavailable for a variety of reasons. To overcome quantitative data scarcity issues, qualitative subject expert knowledge has been used in interdependency analysis, primarily in the form of linguistic responses. Linguistic data is susceptible to uncertainties arising from variations in intended meanings, which may yield inaccurate results. This paper proposes a framework to address this problem using two fuzzy inference systems to model event-specific, network-wide infrastructure failures. The first fuzzy inference system models the damage induced by interdependencies using verbal descriptions. The second fuzzy inference system accounts for synergistic, compounding effects of multiple incidences of indirect damage caused by interdependencies. A case study is conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology using electric and gas distribution networks in the United Kingdom. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show the flexibility of the fuzzy inference systems. The results show that the proposed method can model the interdependency and vulnerability of infrastructure systems using fuzzy inference systems to handle imprecise input. The proposed framework may assist practitioners in better understanding the interdependency and vulnerability of infrastructure systems, and in making more informed decisions to reduce losses resulting from disruptive events.
基础设施系统在经济发展和社会生活质量方面发挥着重要作用。基础设施系统之间存在相互依存关系:一个系统的功能中断会影响到从属系统,从而使影响升级。要了解破坏性事件对基础设施系统的全面影响,就必须对相互依存关系进行正确建模。由于各种原因,基础设施相互依存性的定量数据往往难以获得或无法获得。为了克服定量数据稀缺的问题,在相互依存分析中使用了定性的主题专家知识,主要是以语言反应的形式。语言数据容易受到预期含义变化所带来的不确定性的影响,从而可能产生不准确的结果。本文提出了一个解决这一问题的框架,使用两个模糊推理系统来模拟特定事件的全网基础设施故障。第一个模糊推理系统利用口头描述对相互依存关系引起的损害进行建模。第二个模糊推理系统考虑到了相互依赖所造成的多种间接损害的协同复合效应。我们进行了一项案例研究,利用英国的配电和配气网络证明了建议方法的适用性。进行了敏感性分析,以显示模糊推理系统的灵活性。结果表明,所提出的方法可以利用模糊推理系统对基础设施系统的相互依赖性和脆弱性进行建模,以处理不精确的输入。建议的框架可帮助从业人员更好地理解基础设施系统的相互依存性和脆弱性,并做出更明智的决策,以减少破坏性事件造成的损失。
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Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
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