Progress in Disaster Science最新文献_第5页

Integrating customer relationship management and organizational capabilities for hospital resilience: A framework for disaster preparedness and recovery 整合客户关系管理和医院复原力的组织能力：备灾和恢复的框架

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100488

Roghayeh soleimani , Davood Shishebori , Mohammad Saleh Owlia , Hassan Khademi Zare

Enhancing hospital resilience is essential for mitigating the impact of crises, such as pandemics, on healthcare systems. This study investigates the strategic role of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) in strengthening hospital networks' organizational resilience. A conceptual framework was developed to explore the impact of CRM components—customer knowledge management and CRM-based technology—on critical organizational capabilities such as innovation, dynamism, and flexibility. The mediating roles of risk and crisis management in fostering resilience are also examined. Using a mixed-methods approach, qualitative data from expert interviews identified resilience dimensions, while quantitative data from 169 hospital staff members were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM). The findings highlight that CRM-based strategies significantly enhance resilience by promoting organizational adaptability and effective crisis management. This study provides actionable insights for healthcare managers to implement CRM technologies, advancing disaster preparedness, response, and recovery, and contributing to the implementation of the efficient framework for disaster risk reduction.

加强医院的复原力对于减轻大流行等危机对卫生保健系统的影响至关重要。本研究旨在探讨客户关系管理（CRM）在提升医院网络组织弹性中的策略作用。开发了一个概念框架来探索CRM组件（客户知识管理和基于CRM的技术）对创新、活力和灵活性等关键组织能力的影响。风险和危机管理在促进弹性的中介作用也进行了审查。采用混合方法，来自专家访谈的定性数据确定了弹性维度，同时使用结构方程模型（SEM）分析了来自169名医院工作人员的定量数据。研究结果表明，基于客户关系管理的战略通过促进组织适应性和有效的危机管理，显著提高了弹性。本研究为医疗保健管理人员提供了可操作的见解，以实施CRM技术，推进灾难准备、响应和恢复，并有助于实施有效的减少灾害风险框架。

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引用次数: 0

Integrated approach to evaluate the role of wetland for disaster risk reduction and human well-being: A case study of East Kolkata wetland 综合评价湿地在减少灾害风险和人类福祉中的作用——以东加尔各答湿地为例

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100490

Amit Chatterjee , Shamik Chakraborty , Pankaj Kumar , Shib Sankar Bagdi , Gowhar Meraj

Urban wetlands provide vital ecosystem services such as habitat provision, water purification, flood regulation, climate regulation, food provision, and recreation. However, rapid urban expansion has placed tremendous pressure on urban wetland environments, leading to their shrinkage. East Kolkata Wetland (EKW), a Ramsar site near urban area noted for its high biological diversity. Moreover, this wetland also acts as retardation basin for managing flooding in the neighboring areas and purifies a significant portion of the wastewater received from the city of Kolkata through application of local ecological knowledge (LEK). Despite its high significance, the wetland is facing different threats in terms of encroachment, pollution etc. This study aims to assess possible future changes of the East Kolkata Wetland (EKW) through integrating spatiotemporal data with socio-legal data over the past 23 years. The study uses Shannon's entropy model together with the number of litigation cases. The results indicate that the entropy value increased from 0.394 in 1993 to 0.413 in 2023, suggesting a more dispersed distribution of development, primarily towards the east. This shift is contributing to the conversion of the East Kolkata Wetlands (EKW) into real estate developments. The study also reveals that 95 % of litigation cases in the EKW are related to unauthorized construction and the filling of water bodies. These unsustainable developments can increase Kolkata's exposure to more severe flooding together with loss of food security and biodiversity. The research provides valuable insights for policymakers by offering spatial zones of sensitivity depending upon categories of conversion and suggest steering urban growth away from the east, which could minimize degradation of the EKW and be crucial for Kolkata's long-term sustainability.

城市湿地提供了重要的生态系统服务，如栖息地提供、水净化、洪水调节、气候调节、食物供应和娱乐。然而，快速的城市扩张给城市湿地环境带来了巨大的压力，导致其萎缩。东加尔各答湿地（EKW），靠近市区的拉姆萨尔湿地，以其高度的生物多样性而闻名。此外，该湿地还可以作为治理邻近地区洪水的滞缓盆地，并通过应用当地生态知识（LEK）净化来自加尔各答市的大部分废水。湿地具有重要意义，但也面临着不同程度的侵蚀、污染等威胁。本研究旨在通过整合过去23年的时空数据和社会法律数据，评估东加尔各答湿地（EKW）未来可能的变化。该研究使用了Shannon的熵模型和诉讼案件的数量。结果表明：1993年至2023年，该区的熵值由0.394增加到0.413，表明该区的发展分布较为分散，主要向东部发展；这种转变促使东加尔各答湿地（EKW）转变为房地产开发项目。研究亦显示，九十五%的诉讼案件与违例建筑及水体填筑有关。这些不可持续的发展可能会增加加尔各答遭受更严重洪水的风险，并导致粮食安全和生物多样性丧失。该研究为政策制定者提供了有价值的见解，根据转换类别提供了敏感的空间区域，并建议将城市增长从东部转向东部，这可以最大限度地减少EKW的退化，对加尔各答的长期可持续性至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

FloodCast: A user-centered flood monitoring system to enhance user engagement 以用户为中心的洪水监测系统，提高用户参与度

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100492

Rosemary R. Seva , Alvin Neil A. Gutierrez , Hero Rafael Arante , Alvin Chua , Maria Antonette C. Roque , Edwin Sybingco

Flooding is a major natural hazard whose frequency and severity have increased due to climate change. Although technological advances have improved flood monitoring systems, their usability remains a critical but often overlooked aspect. FloodCast is a sensor-based flood monitoring system that enables users to track real-time water levels in flood-prone areas and predict flood trends for next three hours. User requirements were gathered from individuals with firsthand experience of flooding. FloodCast's output aims to support decision-making, particularly in identifying safe routes during heavy rainfall. Data were collected through two focus group discussions with eight participants each and a survey of 76 respondents. Through iterative prototyping—informed by the user needs, an initial interface was designed. Initial testing that involved 17 participants revealed user confusion stemming from unclear visual cues and navigation, 35 % of which did not attain the benchmark score of System Usability Scale (SUS). After refining the design (e.g., simplifying data visualization, improving accessibility), the final prototype was tested with 21 participants where 100 % passed the SUS benchmark score. Users provided favorable evaluations of the redesigned interface, highlighting the clarity of the flood prediction graph, the usefulness of the reference images, and the value of the 15-min update feature.

洪水是一种主要的自然灾害，由于气候变化，其频率和严重程度都有所增加。虽然技术进步改善了洪水监测系统，但其可用性仍然是一个关键但往往被忽视的方面。FloodCast是一种基于传感器的洪水监测系统，使用户能够跟踪洪水易发地区的实时水位，并预测未来三小时的洪水趋势。用户需求是从亲身经历过洪水的个人那里收集来的。FloodCast的产出旨在支持决策，特别是在大雨期间确定安全路线。数据是通过两次焦点小组讨论收集的，每个小组有8名参与者，并对76名受访者进行调查。根据用户需求，通过迭代原型设计，设计了一个初始界面。最初的测试涉及17名参与者，结果显示，由于视觉线索和导航不清晰，用户产生了困惑，其中35%的用户没有达到系统可用性量表（SUS）的基准分数。在完善设计（例如，简化数据可视化，提高可访问性）之后，最终原型由21名参与者进行测试，其中100%通过SUS基准分数。用户对重新设计的界面给出了良好的评价，强调了洪水预测图的清晰度，参考图像的实用性，以及15分钟更新功能的价值。

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引用次数: 0

Not just who, but where: Examining weather risk information dependencies and preparation across location and social vulnerability 不仅仅是谁，而是在哪里：检查天气风险信息的依赖和跨地点和社会脆弱性的准备

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100491

Kenneth A. Lachlan, James DiCairano, Eleanor Shoreman Ouimet

The current study aimed to examine the impact of media dependencies, demographic, and social vulnerability indicators on perceptions of information sufficiency, disaster preparation, and trust in public health officials. In doing so, this data was disaggregated across geographic tracts to account for demographic and infrastructure variability, with the aim of providing guidance for emergency messages and responders. An online survey of 519 Connecticut residents, drawn from parts of the state known to experience social and structural vulnerabilities, was used as an initial inquiry and proof of concept. The results paint an interesting picture of the potential variability in these relationships across locations with varying degrees of structural and social vulnerability. They also reinforce the importance of variability in source preferences and their relationship with motivated information seeking. Implications for further research and emergency managers are discussed.

目前的研究旨在检查媒体依赖、人口统计和社会脆弱性指标对信息充分性、备灾和对公共卫生官员信任的影响。在此过程中，这些数据按地理区域分类，以说明人口和基础设施的差异，目的是为紧急信息和应急人员提供指导。一项对519名康涅狄格州居民的在线调查被用作初步调查和概念验证，这些居民来自该州已知存在社会和结构脆弱性的地区。研究结果描绘了一幅有趣的画面，显示了这些关系在不同地区具有不同程度的结构和社会脆弱性的潜在可变性。他们还强调了信息源偏好的可变性及其与动机信息寻求的关系的重要性。讨论了对进一步研究和应急管理人员的影响。

引用次数: 0

Community is a solution, not a problem: A systematic review on lessons learned during the COVID-19 pandemic on improving the capacity of the last mile through community-based approaches 社区是解决方案，而不是问题：系统回顾2019冠状病毒病大流行期间关于通过社区方法提高最后一英里能力的经验教训

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100489

Thushara Kamalrathne, Dilanthi Amaratunga, Richard Haigh

Community involvement in disaster risk reduction plays a vital role in various aspects. It enhances understanding of the challenges and risk dynamics at the local level, as well as potential solutions. Community-based approaches have been proven effective for disaster risk mitigation, particularly in resource-limited settings. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many community-based interventions emerged as alternative strategies and coping mechanisms, which are the primary focus of this paper. Data for this study were collected through a systematic review using databases such as ScienceDirect, Scopus, and Emerald Journals. After a thorough record mining process, 38 records were selected for analysis—30 from peer-reviewed journal articles and eight from grey literature. Thematic analysis was employed to examine the qualitative data gathered from these manuscripts, utilizing NVivo-14 software. Initial coding and focused coding were applied to identify key themes. The findings indicate that many communities in developing countries effectively utilized community-based approaches to address the primary challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. These challenges were closely related to health system overloads, implications of responses during lockdowns, low acceptance of preventive measures, difficulties in data management, risk communication, and early warnings. Other issues included livelihood disruptions and food safety, social isolation and mental health concerns, public health information management, and severe impacts on vulnerable and marginalised communities. Furthermore, affected communities collaborated with local stakeholders to implement many community-based interventions. There is a pressing need to document and assess these initiatives as part of regional and national disaster risk reduction frameworks to enhance evidence-based practices

社区参与减少灾害风险在各个方面发挥着至关重要的作用。它增强了对地方层面的挑战和风险动态以及潜在解决方案的理解。以社区为基础的办法已被证明对减轻灾害风险是有效的，特别是在资源有限的情况下。在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间，出现了许多以社区为基础的干预措施作为替代策略和应对机制，这是本文的主要重点。本研究的数据是通过使用ScienceDirect、Scopus和Emerald Journals等数据库进行系统综述收集的。经过彻底的记录挖掘过程，38条记录被选中进行分析，其中30条来自同行评议的期刊文章，8条来自灰色文献。利用NVivo-14软件对从这些手稿中收集的定性数据进行专题分析。采用初始编码和重点编码来确定关键主题。调查结果表明，发展中国家的许多社区有效利用了基于社区的方法来应对COVID-19大流行带来的主要挑战。这些挑战与卫生系统超载、封锁期间应对措施的影响、预防措施的接受程度低、数据管理、风险沟通和早期预警方面的困难密切相关。其他问题包括生计中断和食品安全、社会孤立和心理健康问题、公共卫生信息管理以及对脆弱和边缘化社区的严重影响。此外，受影响社区与当地利益攸关方合作，实施了许多基于社区的干预措施。迫切需要记录和评估这些举措，将其作为区域和国家减少灾害风险框架的一部分，以加强循证实践

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引用次数: 0

Building blocks of a Blockchain-enabled framework for the humanitarian supply chain 为人道主义供应链构建支持区块链的框架

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100494

Jemimah Maina, Sameh Saad, Terrence Perera, Ramin Bahadori

Humanitarian supply chains (HSCs) face significant operational challenges, particularly around trust, transparency, and coordination. Blockchain technology (BCT), with its decentralised and immutable characteristics, offers a promising solution. However, humanitarian organisations often lack a structured framework to guide its implementation. This paper addresses this gap by designing a blockchain-enabled framework specifically tailored to HSCs. A mixed-method approach, using an explanatory sequential design, is adopted. The research begins with a quantitative phase, conducting a feasibility study through a survey targeting key humanitarian stakeholders in Kenya to identify operational needs that BCT could address. Survey data is analysed using SPSS 26.0, and the findings, complemented by secondary literature, inform the development of the proposed framework. The subsequent qualitative phase involves validating the framework through in-depth interviews with humanitarian experts in Kenya. These interviews are coded and thematically analysed using NVivo software. The methodology ensures a high level of research rigour aligned with the study's aim and objectives. The proposed blockchain-enabled framework consists of nine building blocks structured across five phases, from initial planning to full deployment and maturity. Raising awareness is highlighted as the most critical phase for successful implementation. Additionally, the framework emphasises the need for continuous improvement based on user feedback and technological advancements. By addressing key operational challenges, BCT can significantly enhance transparency, integrity, and disaster resilience within Kenya's HSC context.

人道主义供应链（hsc）面临着重大的运营挑战，特别是在信任、透明度和协调方面。区块链技术（BCT）以其去中心化和不可变的特点，提供了一个很有前途的解决方案。然而，人道主义组织往往缺乏指导其实施的结构化框架。本文通过设计专门针对hsc的区块链支持框架来解决这一差距。采用了一种混合方法，使用解释顺序设计。研究从定量阶段开始，通过针对肯尼亚主要人道主义利益相关者的调查进行可行性研究，以确定BCT可以解决的业务需求。调查数据使用SPSS 26.0进行分析，调查结果，辅以二手文献，为拟议框架的发展提供信息。随后的定性阶段包括通过与肯尼亚人道主义专家的深入访谈来验证该框架。使用NVivo软件对这些访谈进行编码和主题分析。该方法确保了与研究目的和目标一致的高水平研究严谨性。拟议的支持区块链的框架由九个构建块组成，分为五个阶段，从初始规划到完全部署和成熟。提高认识是成功实施的最关键阶段。此外，该框架强调需要基于用户反馈和技术进步进行持续改进。通过解决关键的运营挑战，BCT可以显著提高肯尼亚HSC环境下的透明度、完整性和抗灾能力。

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引用次数: 0

Migration behaviors and place-based recovery after the Fukushima disaster: A comparative study of current residents, regular visitors, and non-visitors 福岛灾难后的迁移行为和基于地点的恢复：常住居民、定期访客和非访客的比较研究

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100495

Mengjie Liu , Hitomi Matsunaga , Yuya Kashiwazaki , Makiko Orita , Noboru Takamura

Following the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, residents in the heavily affected towns of Tomioka, Okuma, and Futaba were subject to mandatory evacuation. Over a decade later, migration behavior has diverged, with some residents returning, some visiting regularly, and others not returning at all. This study examined the sociocultural and psychosocial factors associated with migration behaviors in the recovery context after the Fukushima disaster. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted on 1862 individuals registered in the three towns as of 2024. Participants were classified as current residents (both returnees and new settlers), regular visitors, or non-visitors. The results indicated that being a current resident was positively associated with male gender, better physical health (physical component summary score), and willingness to interact with other residents. Conversely, older age (≥ 65 years), cohabiting with family, and anxiety over radiation-related genetic effects were negatively associated with living in the three towns. Regular visit behavior was linked to emotional and cultural motivations—particularly ancestral grave and land management. These findings highlight the interplay between physical capabilities, cultural responsibility, and risk perceptions among post-disaster migrants and suggest that recovery policies should focus on not only physical reconstruction, but also psychosocial needs.

2011年福岛第一核电站事故发生后，富冈、大隈和双叶等重灾区的居民被强制疏散。十多年后，移民行为出现了分歧，一些居民返回，一些人定期访问，还有一些人根本不回来。本研究考察了福岛灾难后恢复背景下与移民行为相关的社会文化和心理因素。采用横断面问卷调查法，对截至2024年在三镇登记的1862人进行调查。参与者被分为常住居民（包括返回者和新定居者）、定期访客和非访客。结果表明，常住居民与男性性别、较好的身体健康状况（身体成分总结得分）和与其他居民互动的意愿呈正相关。相反，年龄较大（≥65岁）、与家人同居以及对辐射相关遗传效应的焦虑与居住在这三个城镇呈负相关。定期参拜行为与情感和文化动机有关，尤其是祖坟和土地管理。这些发现强调了灾后移民的身体能力、文化责任和风险认知之间的相互作用，并建议恢复政策不仅应关注身体重建，还应关注社会心理需求。

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引用次数: 0

Subjectivity in the storm: Q methodological deconstruction of climate narratives among Bangladesh's drought-affected farming households 风暴中的主观性：对孟加拉国受干旱影响农户气候叙事的方法论解构

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100497

Hridoy Majumder, Bikash Chandra Ghosh

Perception, given its pivotal role in the formulation of inclusive adaptation strategies to address climate change, has emerged as an area of mutual interest among international communities. Still, prior studies have predominantly excluded the heterogenous belief structures of stakeholders in suggesting relevant policy frameworks, especially in the Global South. However, this inquiry employed Q methodology to investigate the subjective views of 28 farmers from drought-affected districts in northwest Bangladesh on climate change, identifying three distinct viewpoints: factivists, traditionalists, and modulators. Factivists based their arguments on scientific evidence and acknowledged the necessity of effective adaptation strategies against climate change. Conversely, traditionalists rejected empirical adaptation strategies and scientific reasoning, viewing climate change as a divine act. Modulators prioritized experience-based adaptation techniques, regardless of some underlying causes of climate change. However, all three groups acknowledge extreme climate events are increasing in frequency and causing a sharp decline in crop productivity, notwithstanding their ideological differences. Findings of this investigation articulated the necessity of consolidating diverse beliefs of the farmers to form a feasible and potent set of policies and supported holistic adaptation strategies that resonate with—and are adopted by—the full spectrum of rural stakeholders.

认知在制定应对气候变化的包容性适应战略中发挥着关键作用，已成为国际社会共同关心的领域。然而，先前的研究在建议相关政策框架时主要排除了利益相关者的异质信仰结构，特别是在全球南方。然而，这项调查采用Q方法调查了孟加拉国西北部受干旱影响地区的28名农民对气候变化的主观看法，确定了三种不同的观点：激进主义者、传统主义者和调节者。激进主义者的论点建立在科学证据的基础上，并承认有必要采取有效的适应策略来应对气候变化。相反，传统主义者拒绝经验适应策略和科学推理，将气候变化视为一种神圣的行为。调制者优先考虑基于经验的适应技术，而不考虑气候变化的一些潜在原因。然而，这三个组织都承认，极端气候事件的频率正在增加，并导致作物产量急剧下降，尽管他们的意识形态存在差异。这项调查的结果清楚地表明，有必要巩固农民的各种信仰，以形成一套可行而有力的政策，并支持与所有农村利益相关者产生共鸣并被其采用的整体适应战略。

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引用次数: 0

Crisis communication and media influence during Nokia water contamination event 诺基亚水污染事件中的危机传播和媒体影响

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100487

Vishal Kumar , Frank Hopfgartner , Pekka M. Rossi , Mourad Oussalah

This study analyzes public narratives, stakeholder communication, and media framing during the Nokia water contamination crisis (2007–2008), Finland’s largest waterborne epidemic. Especially, using data from online forum (Suomi24), news reports, and official audits, we apply a new aspect-based sentiment analysis combined with thematic clustering over a 3-month crisis timeline period to trace the evolution of public perception in response to crisis events and stakeholder actions. The findings reveal that positive sentiment clusters were driven by visible mitigation efforts and hygiene-related practices, while negative sentiments were centered around contaminated water, institutional mistrust, and health fears. Media analysis showed minimal bias, with most coverage remaining factual, though occasional sensationalism could have amplified public anxiety. Compared to previous institutional communication research, our findings provide a data-driven perspective on citizen discourse-based analysis, offering new insights into how digital platforms can serve as real-time indicators of public trust and emotional response. The study underscores the importance of timely, transparent, and coordinated communication and highlights the potential of aspect-based sentiment analysis as a tool for adaptive crisis management and comprehending stakeholder actions.

本研究分析了芬兰最大的水传播流行病诺基亚水污染危机（2007-2008）期间的公众叙事、利益相关者沟通和媒体框架。特别是，利用在线论坛（Suomi24）、新闻报道和官方审计的数据，我们采用了一种新的基于方面的情绪分析，结合三个月的危机时间轴期间的主题聚类，来追踪公众对危机事件和利益相关者行动的看法的演变。研究结果显示，积极的情绪集群是由可见的缓解努力和与卫生有关的做法驱动的，而消极的情绪集中在受污染的水、机构不信任和健康担忧上。媒体分析显示出最小的偏见，大多数报道都是真实的，尽管偶尔的耸人听闻可能会放大公众的焦虑。与以往的机构传播研究相比，我们的研究结果为基于公民话语的分析提供了数据驱动的视角，为数字平台如何作为公众信任和情绪反应的实时指标提供了新的见解。该研究强调了及时、透明和协调沟通的重要性，并强调了基于方面的情绪分析作为适应性危机管理和理解利益相关者行动的工具的潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Computational review of disaster resilience research in Bangladesh 孟加拉国灾害恢复力研究的计算回顾

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100486

Tanjeel Ahmed Bin Zaman , Tabassum Haque , Himadri Sen Gupta , Mostafa Sameer , Omar Nofal

Bangladesh is a natural hazard hotspot where research on resilience has grown rapidly but remains fragmented across social and technical silos. We assemble an auditable corpus of 301 peer-reviewed studies (2014–2024) and integrate PRISMA screening with Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to deliver a transparent, data-driven map of the field. A 10-topic model, selected by maximizing

C_{v}

coherence (perplexity as tie-break), is stress-tested via multi-seed and split-half Jensen–Shannon distance; dual-reviewer screening reports substantial agreement (Cohen’s

κ

). The map confirms the dominance of community adaptation and DRR governance and reveals a quantifiable social–technical separation between qualitative community studies and quantitative hazard modeling. Under-represented intersections include private-sector continuity and supply-chain resilience, and salinity–health linkages. We translate these findings into an operational blueprint: a three-layer integration architecture – participatory GIS indicators, hazard/lifeline rasters, and a Bayesian-network inference layer – to evaluate district-level policy levers (e.g., shelter capacity, road chokepoints, anticipatory cash) with uncertainty bands. We also outline a national, open data infrastructure to support reproducible, multi-hazard, uncertainty-aware planning. By coupling transparent evidence synthesis with prescriptive design, this study provides a practical pathway to close Bangladesh’s social–technical gap and advance “bounce-forward” resilience

孟加拉国是一个自然灾害热点国家，在那里，关于恢复力的研究发展迅速，但在社会和技术领域仍然分散。我们收集了301项同行评审研究（2014-2024）的可审计数据库，并将PRISMA筛选与潜在狄利克雷分配（LDA）相结合，以提供透明的、数据驱动的领域地图。通过最大化Cv一致性（混淆作为平局）选择的10个主题模型，通过多种子和分半Jensen-Shannon距离进行了压力测试；双审稿人筛选报告实质性一致（Cohen’s κ）。该地图证实了社区适应和DRR治理的主导地位，并揭示了定性社区研究和定量危害建模之间可量化的社会技术分离。代表性不足的交叉领域包括私营部门的连续性和供应链弹性，以及盐度与健康的联系。我们将这些发现转化为一个操作蓝图：一个三层集成架构——参与式GIS指标、危险/生命线栅格和贝叶斯网络推断层——以评估具有不确定性带的区级政策杠杆（如庇护所容量、道路阻塞点、预期现金）。我们还概述了一个全国性的、开放的数据基础设施，以支持可重复的、多灾害的、不确定性意识的规划。通过将透明的证据综合与规范性设计相结合，本研究为缩小孟加拉国的社会技术差距和提高“反弹”弹性提供了一条切实可行的途径

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引用次数: 0