Progress in Disaster Science最新文献_第5页

Active participation of people with disabilities in disaster preparedness and contingency work: A systematic literature review on methods, outcomes, and challenges 残疾人积极参与备灾和应急工作：方法、结果和挑战的系统文献综述

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100502

Linda Stjernholm , Jonas Borell , Anna-Lisa Osvalder

Disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies must actively include people with disabilities (PWD) to ensure equitable and effective preparedness. Although awareness of disability inclusion in DRR is growing, the literature remains fragmented, and no prior structured literature review has focused specifically on participatory methods involving PWD. This review addresses that gap by identifying and synthesizing evidence on how PWD have been engaged in disaster preparedness and contingency planning. Following a structured process inspired by PRISMA and using the PICO framework, searches in Scopus and Web of Science yielded 720 articles, of which 20 peer-reviewed studies from 12 countries were included. The studies employed diverse participatory methods such as interviews, focus groups, co-design workshops, photovoice, and multi-stakeholder consultations. These approaches led to increased preparedness, empowerment, and leadership among PWD, while also strengthening community networks and collaboration with DRR personnel. However, challenges such as communication barriers, limited resources, and exclusion of marginalized groups were common. To conclude, this review offers the first comprehensive synthesis of participatory methods for disability-inclusive DRR, highlighting both their transformative potential and the need for more inclusive, tailored strategies in future research and practice.

减少灾害风险（DRR）战略必须积极纳入残疾人（PWD），以确保公平和有效的准备。尽管人们对DRR中残障包容的认识正在增强，但相关文献仍然是碎片化的，而且之前没有结构化的文献综述专门关注涉及残障人士的参与式方法。本次审查通过确定和综合有关残疾人如何参与备灾和应急规划的证据，解决了这一差距。在PRISMA的启发下，使用PICO框架，在Scopus和Web of Science中搜索了720篇文章，其中包括来自12个国家的20篇同行评议研究。这些研究采用了多种参与性方法，如访谈、焦点小组、共同设计研讨会、照片语音和多方利益相关者磋商。这些方法增强了残疾人的准备、赋权和领导力，同时也加强了社区网络和与减灾工作人员的合作。然而，沟通障碍、资源有限和排斥边缘群体等挑战是普遍存在的。总而言之，本综述首次对参与式方法进行了全面综合，强调了参与式方法的变革潜力，以及在未来的研究和实践中需要更具包容性和针对性的战略。

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引用次数: 0

Disaster preparedness in Greece: Toward societal, organisational and technological resilience 希腊的灾难准备：走向社会、组织和技术的恢复力

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100538

Gintarė Zinkevičiūtė , Michail Chalaris , Sotiria Anastasiou , Jana Hojnik

This study examines disaster preparedness in Greece in the context of escalating climate-related hazards, focusing on the interaction of societal, organisational, and technological factors. Using a mixed-methods approach – policy analysis, expert interviews, and case studies of major 2023 events - findings reveal systemic gaps in prevention funding, risk communication, and community engagement. Institutional frameworks have strengthened, notably through digital alert systems, yet remain reactive rather than preventive. Behavioural barriers, such as low self-efficacy and risk denial, limit public readiness, while volunteer networks remain under-recognised. Drawing on resilience theory and comparative research on societal and organisational transitions, the paper proposes a multi-level strategy combining institutional robustness, behavioural change interventions, and technological innovation. The analysis contributes to the broader discourse on adaptive and transformative resilience, offering transferable lessons for Mediterranean and other climate-vulnerable regions.

本研究考察了希腊在气候相关灾害不断升级的背景下的防灾准备，重点关注社会、组织和技术因素的相互作用。通过政策分析、专家访谈和2023年重大事件的案例研究等混合方法，研究结果揭示了预防资金、风险沟通和社区参与方面的系统性差距。体制框架得到了加强，特别是通过数字警报系统，但仍然是被动的，而不是预防性的。行为障碍，如低自我效能和风险否认，限制了公众的准备，而志愿者网络仍然没有得到充分认识。基于弹性理论和社会与组织转型的比较研究，本文提出了一种结合制度稳健性、行为改变干预和技术创新的多层次策略。该分析有助于更广泛地讨论适应性和变革性复原力，为地中海和其他气候脆弱地区提供可转移的经验教训。

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引用次数: 0

Identifying physical vulnerability drivers increasing in exposed structures to floods 确定易受洪水影响的暴露结构的物理脆弱性

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100512

Yelena Hernández-Atencia , Juanchito Cutupey-Márquez , Isabel Rojas , Didier Lizcano , Jader Muñoz-Ramos , Luis E. Peña

Diverse structures serve protective functions against floods, yet they remain constantly exposed to water currents, which increase their physical vulnerability. Thus, identifying key factors can be complex given the interrelationships and interactions among hydrological, hydraulic, geomorphological, and many other variables. This study analyzes 13 factors related to the physical vulnerability of structures exposed to flooding from experts' judgment judgment-based approach byCross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC) and multivariate statistics using Principal Components Analysis PCA, and Categorical Principal Component Analysis CATPCA, to highlight the identification of key factors. Subsequently, Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was used to establish metric comparisons between methods. The study evaluated 22 structures along a 20 km stretch of the main channel of the Combeima River in Colombia, using hydrological and hydraulic modeling over a 54-year period (1971–2024), under land-use change scenarios. Results indicate that factors related to the type of cover and the infiltration were highly influential on the level of physical vulnerability. Therefore, the proposed methodology and results can provide elements of judgment for planners in formulating and implementing flood risk management practices.

各种结构具有防洪功能，但它们仍然经常暴露在水流中，这增加了它们的物理脆弱性。因此，考虑到水文、水力、地貌和许多其他变量之间的相互关系和相互作用，确定关键因素可能是复杂的。本研究采用基于专家判断的交叉影响矩阵乘法分类法（cross - impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification， MICMAC）和多元统计方法（主成分分析PCA和分类主成分分析CATPCA）对13个与洪水暴露结构物理脆弱性相关的因素进行分析，以突出关键因素的识别。随后，使用Spearman等级相关系数建立方法之间的度量比较。该研究利用54年（1971-2024年）的水文和水力模型，在土地利用变化情景下，评估了哥伦比亚Combeima河主河道20公里长的22个结构。结果表明，覆盖物类型和入渗等因素对森林物理脆弱性影响较大。因此，建议的方法和结果可以为规划人员制定和实施洪水风险管理措施提供判断要素。

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引用次数: 0

Bridging warning and adaptation addressing risk communication strategies for short-term natural hazard warnings and long-term risk adaptation – A scoping review 衔接预警和适应，解决短期自然灾害预警和长期风险适应的风险沟通战略——范围审查

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100515

Julia Graf , Renate Renner , Thomas Klebel

Effective risk communication is a core element of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030), emphasizing the importance of early warning and public information in mitigating disaster impacts. However, existing research often treats risk communication as a uniform process, lacking in systematic differentiation between short-term warnings and long-term adaptation strategies. This scoping review analyzes 194 peer-reviewed studies to examine how risk communication strategies vary across temporal dimensions (short-term, long-term, hybrid), hazard groups (atmospheric, geophysical, hydrological, biophysical, multiple hazards) and intended purpose. Communication goals are categorized through an inductively developed approach: “Act, Prepare, and Aware”, and mapped across four major hazard groups. Across hazard types, atmospheric hazards are predominantly addressed through hybrid (41 %) and short-term (25 %) strategies. Geophysical hazards are strongly associated with hybrid approaches (43 %). Hydrological hazards display the widest variation across temporal categories. Purely long-term formats, however, are rarely found across all hazard types (1.4 %), despite their strategic importance for resilience. Findings suggest that the choice of communication strategy can be tied to the nature and dynamics of each hazard type. This review identifies key patterns, research gaps, and a structured basis for further evaluation and the development of risk communication. It provides an overview of current literature and guidance for developing context-sensitive, temporally integrated communication strategies.

有效的风险沟通是《仙台减少灾害风险框架（2015-2030年）》的核心要素，强调预警和公共信息在减轻灾害影响方面的重要性。然而，现有研究往往将风险沟通视为一个统一的过程，缺乏对短期预警和长期适应策略的系统区分。本范围审查分析了194项同行评议的研究，以检查风险沟通策略如何在时间维度（短期、长期、混合）、危害组（大气、地球物理、水文、生物物理、多种危害）和预期目的之间变化。通过归纳开发的方法对传播目标进行分类：“行动、准备和意识”，并在四个主要危险组中进行映射。在危害类型中，大气危害主要通过混合（41%）和短期（25%）策略来解决。地球物理灾害与混合方法密切相关（43%）。水文灾害在时间类别中表现出最广泛的变化。然而，尽管纯长期模式对恢复力具有战略重要性，但在所有风险类型中很少发现（1.4%）。研究结果表明，传播策略的选择可以与每种危险类型的性质和动态联系在一起。本综述确定了关键模式、研究差距以及进一步评估和发展风险沟通的结构化基础。它提供了当前文献的概述和指导，以制定上下文敏感，时间集成的传播策略。

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引用次数: 0

Subjectivity in the storm: Q methodological deconstruction of climate narratives among Bangladesh's drought-affected farming households 风暴中的主观性：对孟加拉国受干旱影响农户气候叙事的方法论解构

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100497

Hridoy Majumder, Bikash Chandra Ghosh

Perception, given its pivotal role in the formulation of inclusive adaptation strategies to address climate change, has emerged as an area of mutual interest among international communities. Still, prior studies have predominantly excluded the heterogenous belief structures of stakeholders in suggesting relevant policy frameworks, especially in the Global South. However, this inquiry employed Q methodology to investigate the subjective views of 28 farmers from drought-affected districts in northwest Bangladesh on climate change, identifying three distinct viewpoints: factivists, traditionalists, and modulators. Factivists based their arguments on scientific evidence and acknowledged the necessity of effective adaptation strategies against climate change. Conversely, traditionalists rejected empirical adaptation strategies and scientific reasoning, viewing climate change as a divine act. Modulators prioritized experience-based adaptation techniques, regardless of some underlying causes of climate change. However, all three groups acknowledge extreme climate events are increasing in frequency and causing a sharp decline in crop productivity, notwithstanding their ideological differences. Findings of this investigation articulated the necessity of consolidating diverse beliefs of the farmers to form a feasible and potent set of policies and supported holistic adaptation strategies that resonate with—and are adopted by—the full spectrum of rural stakeholders.

认知在制定应对气候变化的包容性适应战略中发挥着关键作用，已成为国际社会共同关心的领域。然而，先前的研究在建议相关政策框架时主要排除了利益相关者的异质信仰结构，特别是在全球南方。然而，这项调查采用Q方法调查了孟加拉国西北部受干旱影响地区的28名农民对气候变化的主观看法，确定了三种不同的观点：激进主义者、传统主义者和调节者。激进主义者的论点建立在科学证据的基础上，并承认有必要采取有效的适应策略来应对气候变化。相反，传统主义者拒绝经验适应策略和科学推理，将气候变化视为一种神圣的行为。调制者优先考虑基于经验的适应技术，而不考虑气候变化的一些潜在原因。然而，这三个组织都承认，极端气候事件的频率正在增加，并导致作物产量急剧下降，尽管他们的意识形态存在差异。这项调查的结果清楚地表明，有必要巩固农民的各种信仰，以形成一套可行而有力的政策，并支持与所有农村利益相关者产生共鸣并被其采用的整体适应战略。

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引用次数: 0

When waters turn against communities: Unraveling water governance, security, and household well-being in hazard-prone coastal Bangladesh 当水对社区不利：在易发生灾害的孟加拉国沿海地区，揭开水治理、安全和家庭福祉的面纱

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100500

Md. Nasif Ahsan , Jannatul Naim , Najmus Sakib , Pankaj Kumar , Naoyuki Okano , Md. Sarwar Hossain , Animesh K. Gain , Md Nurul Amin , Md Khairul Islam , Miho Ohara , Yasuo Takahashi , Osamu Saito , Koji Miwa

Water insecurity, intensified by climate change, environmental degradation, and unsustainable resource management, poses a significant threat to human well-being in coastal regions. This study examines the interrelationships among water governance, household well-being, and water security in southwestern Bangladesh. Using a multistage sampling approach, data were collected from 411 households across nine unions in the Khulna and Satkhira districts, illustrating acute vulnerabilities stemming from ineffective water management, saline intrusion, and inadequate infrastructure. Statistical analyses, including correlation, z-test, chi-square test, and regression, were employed alongside Generalized Structural Equation Modeling (GSEM) to assess the dynamics of water governance and its linkage with water security and well-being. The results suggest that trust, transparency, accountability, and service delivery are key determinants of effective water governance. As hypothesized, effective water governance was positively associated with both household well-being and water security, and higher water security further contributed to improved well-being. The study recommends strengthening coastal water infrastructure through community participation across all project phases, ensuring affordability, integrating resilient solar-powered purification systems, and promoting water-dependent livelihoods. These strategies can reinforce trust, transparency, and service delivery while improving the accessibility, quality, and safety of water for coastal communities.

气候变化、环境退化和不可持续的资源管理加剧了水的不安全，对沿海地区的人类福祉构成了重大威胁。本研究考察了孟加拉国西南部水治理、家庭福祉和水安全之间的相互关系。采用多阶段抽样方法，从kulna和Satkhira地区9个工会的411个家庭收集了数据，说明了低效的水管理、盐水入侵和基础设施不足造成的严重脆弱性。采用相关、z检验、卡方检验和回归等统计分析方法，结合广义结构方程模型（GSEM）评估了水治理的动态及其与水安全和福祉的联系。结果表明，信任、透明度、问责制和服务提供是有效水资源治理的关键决定因素。正如假设的那样，有效的水治理与家庭福祉和水安全呈正相关，更高的水安全进一步促进了福祉的改善。该研究建议通过社区参与所有项目阶段来加强沿海水基础设施，确保可负担性，整合有弹性的太阳能净化系统，并促进依赖水的生计。这些战略可以加强信任、透明度和服务提供，同时改善沿海社区水的可及性、质量和安全性。

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引用次数: 0

Global challenges and insights in disaster risk management at world cultural heritage sites 世界文化遗产地灾害风险管理的全球挑战和见解

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100477

Min Li , Takeyuki Okubo , Dowon Kim , Shakya Lata , Aya Miyazaki

Cultural heritage has faced significant challenges due to both natural and human-induced hazards, as well as the impacts of climate change in recent years. To safeguard the outstanding universal value of World Cultural Heritage (WCH) sites, this study focuses on disaster risk management (DRM) across these WCH sites globally. A questionnaire was distributed to 972 WCH sites, with 57 responding. The survey gathered information on hazard-related characteristics, historical disasters, the current status of DRM plans and measures, and the traditional knowledge related to DRM. The study found that approximately 72 % of the surveyed heritage sites feature timber structures or masonry structures with wooden elements, making them vulnerable to fire. Additionally, 40 % of WCH sites are located in mountainous, coastal, or riverside areas, exposing them to multiple natural hazards. Many sites (79 %) have been repurposed for commercial use, and about 42 % of the surveyed sites attract a large number of tourists, which may further increase disaster risks. The study findings also highlight the diverse range of hazards affecting monuments and archaeological sites in Africa, Asia, and Europe, with Africa and Europe facing particularly significant challenges due to climate change. From past disasters, it is evident that floods, strong winds, fires, and earthquakes have become more frequent in recent years, causing substantial damage to heritage sites. Notably, climate change is a key factor behind disasters like floods, fires, droughts, and extreme wind events. In addition, human-induced disasters, such as armed conflicts and vandalism, have also caused serious destruction to WCH sites. However, only about half of the surveyed heritage sites have a DRM plan in place or are in the process of developing one. The study further reveals that the lack of financial and material resources, expertise, and awareness of the importance of a DRM plan are the key reasons for the absence of DRM plans. On the other hand, traditional knowledge identified at these WCH sites, including specialized drainage system designs, traditional fire-fighting methods, and climate-resilient architectural features, could be integrated as effective disaster risk reduction measures in future DRM plans.

近年来，由于自然灾害和人为灾害以及气候变化的影响，文化遗产面临着重大挑战。为保护世界文化遗产突出的普遍价值，本研究着眼于全球世界文化遗产的灾害风险管理（DRM）。向972个WCH站点分发了问卷，有57个站点回复了问卷。调查收集了灾害相关特征、历史灾害、DRM计划和措施的现状以及与DRM相关的传统知识。研究发现，大约72%的被调查遗址以木结构或木结构砌体结构为特征，这使得它们很容易受到火灾的影响。此外，40%的卫生保健地点位于山区、沿海或河边地区，使其面临多种自然灾害。许多遗址（79%）已被重新用于商业用途，约42%的被调查遗址吸引了大量游客，这可能进一步增加灾害风险。研究结果还强调了影响非洲、亚洲和欧洲古迹和考古遗址的各种危险，其中非洲和欧洲因气候变化而面临特别重大的挑战。从过去的灾害来看，洪水、强风、火灾和地震近年来变得越来越频繁，对遗产造成了巨大的破坏。值得注意的是，气候变化是洪水、火灾、干旱和极端大风等灾害背后的关键因素。此外，武装冲突和人为破坏等人为灾害也对WCH遗址造成严重破坏。然而，在被调查的遗产地中，只有大约一半已经制定或正在制定数字版权管理计划。研究进一步表明，缺乏财务和物质资源、专业知识以及对DRM计划重要性的认识是缺乏DRM计划的主要原因。另一方面，在这些WCH遗址中发现的传统知识，包括专业排水系统设计、传统消防方法和气候适应性建筑特征，可以作为有效的减灾措施整合到未来的DRM计划中。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluation of spatiotemporal effects of soil depth on shallow landslides and debris flows via coupled numerical analysis 耦合数值分析评价土壤深度对浅层滑坡和泥石流的时空影响

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100470

Seungjun Lee , Taeun Kang , Minseok Kim , Heemin Ko , Hyunuk An

Soil depth critically influences the timing and magnitude of shallow landslides and subsequent debris flows, yet its spatiotemporal effects remain insufficiently understood. This study investigates these effects through landslides–debris flows coupled numerical analysis, employing three soil depth configurations: the slope-based S model, the elevation-based Z model, and the U model, which assumes uniform soil depth across the study area. The 2011 Mt. Umyeon landslides in South Korea, a well-documented event with extensive field survey data, were simulated to validate the simulation results. Model performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic method. Results show that increasing soil depth enlarges the scale of landslides and debris flows while delaying their onset. However, when soil depth greatly exceeds rainfall intensity and cumulative rainfall, slope failure susceptibility decreases, emphasizing the spatiotemporal control of soil thickness. In debris flow simulations, soil depth strongly influenced erosion and entrainment processes, substantially affecting downstream residential damage estimates. Furthermore, our results indicate that when soil depth data are unavailable, the slope-based S model provides more spatiotemporally stable predictions of landslide and debris flow behavior. This study highlights the importance of soil depth in geohazard modeling and advances understanding of rainfall-induced landslide–debris flow hazards in ungauged mountainous regions.

土壤深度对浅层滑坡和随后的泥石流的发生时间和规模具有重要影响，但其时空效应仍未得到充分认识。本研究通过滑坡-泥石流耦合数值分析研究了这些影响，采用了三种土壤深度配置：基于坡度的S模型、基于高程的Z模型和假设整个研究区域土壤深度均匀的U模型。2011年的韩国雨眠山山体滑坡是一个有充分记录的事件，有大量的实地调查数据，为了验证模拟结果，进行了模拟。采用接收机工作特性法对模型性能进行评价。结果表明：随着土层深度的增加，滑坡和泥石流发生的规模增大，发生时间推迟；然而，当土壤深度大大超过降雨强度和累积降雨量时，边坡破坏敏感性降低，强调了土壤厚度的时空控制。在泥石流模拟中，土壤深度强烈影响侵蚀和夹带过程，极大地影响下游居民损失的估计。此外，我们的研究结果表明，当土壤深度数据不可用时，基于边坡的S模型提供了更多的时空稳定的滑坡和泥石流行为预测。这项研究强调了土壤深度在地质灾害建模中的重要性，并促进了对未测量山区降雨引起的滑坡-泥石流灾害的理解。

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引用次数: 0

Earthquake loss estimation due to damage to residential masonry buildings during scenario earthquakes in Nepal 尼泊尔模拟地震中住宅砌体建筑损坏的地震损失估算

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100463

Sunita Ghimire, Hari Ram Parajuli, Prem Nath Maskey

Historical records indicate that large-magnitude earthquakes have frequently impacted Nepal, leading to widespread destruction and significant loss of life. This study quantifies potential earthquake losses for residential masonry structures by analyzing damage data from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake across 31 affected districts. The residential buildings in the study area are categorized into seven typologies based on construction materials and the number of stories. Damage states were classified into five grades using the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98). Based on these classifications, empirical fragility curves were developed. These curves, integrated with exposure, consequence, vulnerability, and fault rupture models, served as the foundation for a loss estimation analysis. We examined three distinct earthquake scenarios– two historical and one hypothetical - that are representative of seismic activity in central, eastern, and western Nepal. Although post-2015 Gorkha earthquake reconstruction efforts resulted in approximately 1,000,000 seismically compliant residential buildings, an estimated 814,690 pre-existing masonry buildings remain highly vulnerable due to their noncompliance with seismic provisions. This study provides municipality-level economic loss estimations, as well as damage distributions for residential masonry buildings, for three scenarios, marking the first time this has been done in the study area.

历史记载表明，尼泊尔频繁发生大地震，造成大范围破坏和重大人员伤亡。本研究通过分析2015年廓尔喀地震31个受灾地区的破坏数据，量化了住宅砌体结构的潜在地震损失。研究区域内的住宅建筑根据建筑材料和层高划分为七种类型。使用欧洲大地震震级（EMS-98）将地震破坏状态分为五个等级。在此基础上，建立了经验脆弱性曲线。这些曲线与暴露、后果、脆弱性和断层破裂模型相结合，成为损失估计分析的基础。我们研究了三种不同的地震情景——两种是历史的，一种是假设的——它们代表了尼泊尔中部、东部和西部的地震活动。尽管2015年后的廓尔喀地震重建工作产生了大约100万栋符合地震要求的住宅建筑，但估计有814,690栋原有的砖石建筑仍然非常脆弱，因为它们不符合地震规定。本研究提供了市政一级的经济损失估计，以及住宅砌体建筑在三种情况下的损害分布，这是第一次在研究区域进行这样的研究。

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引用次数: 0

Landslide evaluation and the correlation with urban planning policy gaps, in south-central Chile 智利中南部滑坡评价及其与城市规划政策差距的相关性

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100484

Luciana das Dores de Jesus da Silva , Fabian Pacheco , Octavio Rojas , Mauricio Aguayo , Maria Elisa Diaz Burgos , Natalia Julio , Ricardo Figueroa Jara

Rapid and unplanned urbanization through informal settlements has intensified environmental degradation and increased exposure to natural hazards, limiting sustainable urban growth. Chile, identified by the IPCC as highly vulnerable to climate change, faces growing landslide risks driven by both natural and anthropogenic factors. Since the enactment of the Disaster Risk Law (Law 21,364, 2021), Chile has begun decentralizing disaster management; however, preventive and planning-oriented approaches remain limited. This study examines the integration of disaster risk management into urban planning in southern Chile, focusing on how local planning instruments address landslide risk. A multicriteria spatial analysis was conducted to assess susceptibility, physical vulnerability, and risk, compared with zoning defined by Metropolitan and Communal Regulatory Plans (PRM/PRC). Additionally, nearly 50 planning instruments were reviewed. Results show that 70 % of recorded landslides occurred in areas of medium to high susceptibility. Lota presents the largest susceptible area, while Concepción shows the highest physical vulnerability and risk (25.08 km² of high-risk zones). In most municipalities, risk areas identified in this study exceed those officially recognized. The findings emphasize the need to systematically incorporate vulnerability into planning frameworks and strengthen land-use regulations to improve disaster risk governance in developing urban contexts.

通过非正式住区进行的快速和无计划的城市化加剧了环境退化，增加了遭受自然灾害的机会，限制了可持续的城市增长。智利被政府间气候变化专门委员会认定为极易受到气候变化影响的国家，在自然和人为因素的双重作用下，智利面临着日益严重的山体滑坡风险。自《灾害风险法》（2021年第21364号法律）颁布以来，智利开始下放灾害管理权力；然而，预防性和面向规划的办法仍然有限。本研究考察了智利南部城市规划中灾害风险管理的整合，重点关注当地规划工具如何应对山体滑坡风险。通过多标准空间分析，评估了易感性、物理脆弱性和风险，并与都市和社区监管规划（PRM/PRC）定义的分区进行了比较。此外，审查了近50项规划文书。结果表明，有记录的滑坡中有70%发生在中高易感性地区。Lota是最大的易感区，Concepción是最高的物理脆弱性和风险（25.08 km2的高危区）。在大多数城市，本研究确定的风险区域超过了官方承认的风险区域。研究结果强调，有必要系统地将脆弱性纳入规划框架，并加强土地使用法规，以改善发展中城市环境中的灾害风险治理。

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引用次数: 0