Progress in Disaster Science最新文献_第5页

Impact of a full-scale mass casualty exercise on hospital staff and implications for future preparedness – A pre-post study 全面大规模伤亡演习对医院工作人员的影响及对未来准备工作的影响-一项前后研究

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100478

Maik von der Forst , Barbara J. Germann , Hanne Schaefer , Gabriel A. Salg , Markus A. Weigand , Felix C.F. Schmitt , Maximilian Dietrich , Stefan Mohr , Janna Küllenberg , Markus Ries , Erik Popp

Study hypothesis

Mass casualty incidents (MCI) can overwhelm hospital capacities. Effective management requires emergency plans and exercises to improve familiarity, confidence, and skills. Scientific evaluation of exercises is crucial to identify their impact, this study hypothesized indirect benefits for all staff from MCI exercises, even non-participants.

Methods

Two prospective, representative, anonymous surveys were conducted among all professional groups before and after a full-scale MCI exercise at Heidelberg University Hospital. Descriptive analyses were conducted for the total sample (N = 669). Hierarchical linear regression analyses were performed for the dependent constructs Familiarity with MCI Plan, Familiarity with Alert Process, Knowledge of Tasks, and Knowledge about Roles and Cooperation.

Results

The exercise positively influenced knowledge of the MCI plan across all four constructs. Employees in management positions and physicians reported higher scores across all constructs. There appeared to be an overall improvement, suggesting that all employees have benefited. Greater significance was observed for theoretical than for practical knowledge.

Conclusions

There were significant improvements of theoretical and practical knowledge of the MCI plan after an exercise. All employees, including those without exercise participation, appeared to benefit, possibly due to increased awareness and enhanced preparation. However, these results cannot be conclusively attributed to the exercise itself.

研究假设大规模伤亡事件（MCI）可能超出医院的能力。有效的管理需要应急计划和练习来提高熟悉度、信心和技能。对锻炼的科学评估对于确定其影响至关重要，本研究假设所有员工都能从MCI锻炼中间接获益，即使是非参与者。方法在海德堡大学医院全面MCI训练前后对所有专业群体进行了两项前瞻性、代表性、匿名调查。对总样本（N = 669）进行描述性分析。对MCI计划熟悉度、警报过程熟悉度、任务知识和角色与合作知识进行层次线性回归分析。结果在所有四个构念中，锻炼正向影响MCI计划的知识。管理职位的员工和医生在所有构念中得分更高。整体情况似乎有所改善，这表明所有员工都受益了。理论知识比实践知识更有意义。结论实验后患者对MCI计划的理论和实践知识均有显著提高。所有员工，包括那些没有参加锻炼的员工，似乎都受益了，这可能是由于意识的提高和准备的加强。然而，这些结果并不能完全归因于锻炼本身。

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引用次数: 0

The impacts of local emergency management agency resource constraints on planning for hazard mitigation and debris management 地方应急管理机构资源限制对减灾和碎片管理规划的影响

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100480

Julia C. Crowley , Bowen Liu , Ailing Nan

This research aims to measure hazard mitigation and debris management planning resource constraints for local emergency management agencies throughout the United States. A survey tool was developed that contained sections pertaining to plan development, plan implementation, and collaborative partnerships with other planning stakeholders. The survey was distributed to local emergency management agencies in the 50 states, five territories, and the District of Columbia. After cleaning the data, the sample consisted of 309 local emergency managers that represented all 10 regions of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Relevant statistical tests were run to analyze the data. While the results do not provide sufficient evidence to support the hypothesis that resource constraints may inhibit the development of local hazard mitigation plans, there is strong evidence that resource constraints, particularly related to staffing and competing priorities, are significant barriers to the development of local debris management plans. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that jurisdictions with higher staffing capacities are significantly more likely to implement their hazard mitigation and debris management plans effectively. Finally, the results indicate that there were no statistically significant differences in reported collaboration rates between the two plan types across eight planning stakeholder categories. Moreover, partnerships with academic institutions were the least common for hazard mitigation and debris management plans. It is recommended that more partnerships be developed between local emergency management agencies and academic institutions, particularly with planning degree programs, to address these local planning resource constraints.

本研究旨在衡量美国各地地方应急管理机构的减灾和碎片管理规划资源限制。开发了一个调查工具，其中包含与计划开发、计划实施以及与其他计划涉众的协作伙伴关系有关的部分。该调查已分发给50个州、5个地区和哥伦比亚特区的当地应急管理机构。在清理数据后，样本由309名当地应急管理人员组成，他们代表了联邦紧急事务管理局所有10个地区。进行了相关的统计检验来分析数据。虽然研究结果没有提供足够的证据来支持资源限制可能阻碍地方减灾计划制定的假设，但有强有力的证据表明，资源限制，特别是与人员配备和相互竞争的优先事项有关的资源限制，是制定地方碎片管理计划的重大障碍。此外，结果表明，人员配备能力较高的司法管辖区更有可能有效地实施其减灾和碎片管理计划。最后，结果表明，在8个规划利益相关者类别中，两种计划类型之间报告的协作率没有统计学上的显著差异。此外，在减灾和碎片管理计划中，与学术机构建立伙伴关系是最不常见的。建议在地方应急管理机构和学术机构之间建立更多的伙伴关系，特别是在规划学位课程方面，以解决这些地方规划资源限制问题。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring patterns of short- and mid-term essential resource loss following hurricane Ike: A mixture modeling approach 探索飓风艾克后短期和中期基本资源损失模式：一种混合建模方法

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100481

Yuki Shigemoto, William Giniewski

Disasters such as hurricanes disrupt access to essential resources, but loss is not uniform, as it varies in intensity, duration, and psychological impact. Guided by Conservation of Resources (COR) theory, this study used secondary data from the Galveston Bay Recovery Study (ICPSR 34801) to identify patterns of short-term (at least one day) and mid-term (more than one week) resource loss after Hurricane Ike and to examine links with demographics and psychological distress. Participants were 658 adults from Galveston and Chambers counties who reported loss across nine resources (electricity, drinking water, housing, food, money, job, transportation, clothing, shelter) and symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, and anxiety. Mixture modeling yielded four distinct loss profiles at both time points. Most people were classified into profiles with limited disruption, while smaller subgroups experienced severe or compounded loss. High-loss classes were disproportionately low-income, female, and racially/ethnically marginalized and showed significantly higher PTSD and depression symptoms. Over time, many transitioned to lower-loss classes, indicating partial recovery, but others remained in or moved into persistent high-loss profiles, especially when early financial or employment disruptions occurred. Findings underscore heterogeneous recovery trajectories and the need for holistic, equity-focused strategies that address both immediate and sustained resource deprivation.

飓风等灾害破坏了对基本资源的获取，但损失并不均匀，因为其强度、持续时间和心理影响各不相同。在资源保护（COR）理论的指导下，本研究使用加尔维斯顿湾恢复研究（ICPSR 34801）的二次数据来确定飓风艾克后短期（至少一天）和中期（超过一周）资源损失的模式，并检查人口统计和心理困扰的联系。参与者是来自加尔维斯顿和钱伯斯县的658名成年人，他们报告了九种资源（电力、饮用水、住房、食物、金钱、工作、交通、衣服、住所）的损失，以及创伤后应激障碍（PTSD）、抑郁和焦虑的症状。混合模型在两个时间点产生了四个不同的损失曲线。大多数人被归类为干扰有限的概况，而较小的亚组则经历了严重或复合的损失。高损失阶层不成比例地是低收入、女性和种族/民族边缘化阶层，并表现出明显更高的创伤后应激障碍和抑郁症状。随着时间的推移，许多人过渡到低损失类别，表明部分复苏，但其他人仍然处于或进入持续的高损失状态，特别是在早期金融或就业中断发生时。研究结果强调了异质性的恢复轨迹，以及解决当前和持续资源匮乏问题的整体、公平战略的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

Effect of weather on crowd motion accidents 天气对人群运动事故的影响

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100475

Dóra Edelmann , Ágota Drégelyi-Kiss , Tibor Goda

Background and objective

Weather conditions are critical to safety at mass events, impacting pedestrian movement and emergency evacuation. This study analyzed fatal crowd accidents and their correlation with weather.

Methods

Data from 161 fatal crowd crush accidents (CCA) at mass gatherings in 65 countries (2000–2024) were collected, including location, date, attendance, casualties, fatalities, weather conditions, and population density data. Apparent temperature (AT) and Humidex (HI) were calculated for the accident days and the preceding and following days. Descriptive analysis and multivariate linear regression model were conducted.

Results

The majority of fatal accidents (61 %, n = 98) occurred in countries with higher population densities. In 59.74 % of cases, the Humidex was above the high discomfort threshold (>30 °C) on the day of the accident. We found a positive monotonic correlation between the number of fatalities, attendance, and air pressure characteristics in the period following and on the day of the accident.

Conclusions

Due to the increased risk of accidents at mass gatherings, risk prevention services and governmental bodies must enact specialized, coordinated measures to mitigate such occurrences. A comprehensive analysis of atmospheric conditions is paramount in preventing accidents.

背景和目标天气条件对大型活动的安全至关重要，影响行人的移动和紧急疏散。本研究分析了致命的人群事故及其与天气的关系。方法收集来自65个国家（2000-2024年）的161起大型集会致命人群挤压事故（CCA）的数据，包括地点、日期、出席人数、伤亡人数、死亡人数、天气状况和人口密度数据。计算事故发生日及事故前后的视温度（AT）和湿度（HI）。进行描述性分析和多元线性回归模型。结果绝大多数致命事故（61%,n = 98）发生在人口密度较高的国家。在59.74%的病例中，Humidex在事故当天高于高不适阈值（>30°C）。我们发现，在事故发生后的一段时间内，死亡人数、出勤率和气压特征之间存在正单调相关。结论：由于大规模集会发生事故的风险增加，风险预防服务机构和政府机构必须制定专门的、协调的措施来减少此类事件的发生。对大气状况的全面分析对防止事故至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Grotesque representations of catastrophe: interpreting cultural narratives in disaster postcards of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and 1923 Great Kantō Earthquake 灾难的怪诞表现：解读1906年旧金山地震和1923年大地震灾难明信片中的文化叙事

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100476

Larissa Casteliani Marinho Falcao, Norio Maki

This article examines how grotesque shaped cultural representations of disasters, by analysing 627 postcards depicting the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and the 1923 Great Kantō Earthquake. Conducted in 2025, this study employed comparative-historical and semiotic methodologies to guide a connotative analysis. The sampling represents a small fraction of an extensive production, allowing meaningful insights to be drawn by focusing on the significant. The purpose is to investigate how disasters are visually and narratively processed through grotesque forms within distinct cultural frameworks, contributing to Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) studies by highlighting interpretive dimensions of risk perception. Findings reveal divergent tendencies: San Francisco postcards often employed satire and humour, reflecting individualism, accountability, and a blame-oriented risk culture; while Japanese postcards depicted macabre imagery of mass death, embedded in collective notions of danger, shame, and no-fault. This contrast illustrates how the grotesque functions as a cultural mechanism for resilience, with satire serving as critique, and the macabre providing a means of confronting social order. By situating these visual narratives within cultural contexts, this study shows that disaster postcards are vehicles for processing trauma. The research concludes by proposing DRR policies to integrate cultural perspectives into its strategies, to align with community values.

本文通过分析627张描绘1906年旧金山地震和1923年关东大地震的明信片，探讨了怪异的灾难文化表征是如何形成的。这项研究于2025年进行，采用比较历史和符号学方法来指导内涵分析。抽样代表了广泛生产的一小部分，允许通过关注重要内容来获得有意义的见解。目的是调查在不同的文化框架内，如何通过怪诞的形式在视觉上和叙事上处理灾害，通过强调风险感知的解释维度，为减少灾害风险（DRR）研究做出贡献。研究结果揭示了不同的趋势：旧金山明信片经常采用讽刺和幽默，反映了个人主义、问责制和以责备为导向的风险文化；而日本的明信片描绘了大规模死亡的可怕画面，嵌入了危险、羞耻和无过错的集体观念。这种对比说明了怪诞是如何作为一种文化机制发挥作用的，讽刺是一种批判，而恐怖是一种对抗社会秩序的手段。通过将这些视觉叙事置于文化背景中，本研究表明灾难明信片是处理创伤的工具。该研究最后提出了DRR政策，将文化观点纳入其战略，以与社区价值观保持一致。

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引用次数: 0

Estimating flash flood surface flow velocity in heritage city using citizen-recorded videos 利用市民录像估算遗产城市山洪地表流速

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100474

Muhammad Asif , Silvano Fortunato Dal Sasso , Teodosio Lacava , Raffaele Albano

Urban flash floods pose significant threats to public safety, infrastructure, and urban resilience. Accurate and rapid assessment of flood flow velocities is essential for effective hazard monitoring and response. However, public awareness of flood risks often remains low, especially regarding the rapid impact of shallow waters on human safety. To address this challenge, this study leverages citizen-recorded videos to estimate flood flow velocities, supporting improved hazard assessment.

Focusing on Matera, a UNESCO World Heritage city in southern Italy (Basilicata Region), known for its steep topography and historic “Sassi” districts, the study analyzes five recent flood events (August 24, 2018; November 12, 2019; June 2, 2023; July 2, 2024; and July 21, 2024) using eight citizen-sourced videos, primarily from social media platforms. These videos captured the surface flow along Via Buozzi, a key historic drainage path in the downtown area.

Flow velocities were estimated using Fudaa-LSPIV, an image-based particle image velocimetry method adapted for video analysis. The accuracy of these estimates was validated against measurements obtained with SSIMS-Flow, an optical flow software tool, as well as benchmark data derived from floating debris, such as leaves and trash, visually detectable in the videos. The comparison revealed a strong correlation and close agreement between all methods.

Results demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed approach for estimating surface velocities during urban flash floods. The accompanying datasets, included both in the manuscript and in the supplementary material, offer valuable resources for calibration, validation hydrodynamic modelling and, ultimately, advancing flood risk assessment and management in urban contexts such as heritage city.

城市山洪暴发对公共安全、基础设施和城市韧性构成重大威胁。准确和快速的洪水流速评估对于有效的灾害监测和响应至关重要。然而，公众对洪水风险的认识往往仍然很低，特别是关于浅水对人类安全的迅速影响。为了应对这一挑战，本研究利用公民录制的视频来估计洪水流速，以支持改进的灾害评估。该研究以意大利南部（巴西利卡塔地区）的联合国教科文组织世界遗产城市马泰拉（Matera）为重点，该城市以其陡峭的地形和历史悠久的“萨西”地区而闻名，研究使用八个公民来源的视频（主要来自社交媒体平台）分析了最近的五次洪水事件（2018年8月24日；2019年11月12日；2023年6月2日；2024年7月2日和2024年7月21日）。这些视频捕捉了市中心重要的历史排水路径——Via浮标的地表水流。采用一种适用于视频分析的基于图像的粒子图像测速方法Fudaa-LSPIV进行流速估计。这些估计的准确性通过使用SSIMS-Flow（一种光流软件工具）获得的测量数据以及从漂浮碎片（如树叶和垃圾）获得的基准数据进行了验证，这些数据在视频中可以直观地检测到。结果表明，各方法之间具有很强的相关性和一致性。结果表明，该方法对城市山洪暴发期间地表速度的估计是有效和可靠的。随附的数据集，包括在手稿和补充材料中，为校准，验证水动力建模，并最终推进城市环境（如遗产城市）的洪水风险评估和管理提供了宝贵的资源。

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引用次数: 0

Dual-constrained healthcare emergency facility location model under flood scenarios: A case study in the Maozhou River basin, Shenzhen, China 洪水情景下的双约束医疗急救设施选址模型——以深圳茅州河流域为例

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100473

Yongqiang Liu , Guang Yang , Dongzhou Li , Yanlong Guan , Xinshuang Song , Guoqing Liu , Ziwu Fan

Extreme rainfall-induced flooding significantly impacts healthcare emergency services. Current research on optimizing the deployment of healthcare emergency facilities under flooding scenarios remains limited, particularly in terms of considering both the population coverage and spatial coverage. Based on the simulation of urban flooding, this study proposes a dual-constrained emergency facility location optimization model that balances both the newly added service population and newly service scope, and its effectiveness is validated in the Maozhou River Basin in Shenzhen. The results indicate that urban flooding in the study area is caused by insufficient drainage capacity and low-lying topography, with the former being the dominant contributing factor. Additionally, rainfall events exceeding a 78 mm/h(10-year threshold) alter the shortest access routes to healthcare emergency services for over 50 % of the population.Compared with the decrease in traffic speed, impassable roads due to flooding exert a greater effect on healthcare emergency services. Lastly, optimization outcomes under three flooding scenarios demonstrate the applicability of our model, accurately determining the location of high priority healthcare emergency facilities. Non-inundated populations now achieve assured 15-min healthcare emergency response. This study provides a scientific foundation for urban emergency departments to plan resource allocation, reducing risks from healthcare delays in non-inundated areas.

极端降雨引发的洪水严重影响医疗急救服务。目前关于优化洪水情景下医疗应急设施部署的研究仍然有限，特别是在考虑人口覆盖率和空间覆盖率方面。在城市洪涝模拟的基础上，提出了一种兼顾新增服务人群和新增服务范围的双约束应急设施选址优化模型，并在深圳茂洲河流域进行了有效性验证。结果表明：研究区城市洪涝是由排水能力不足和地势低洼造成的，其中排水能力不足是主要的影响因素；此外，超过78毫米/小时（10年阈值）的降雨事件改变了50%以上人口获得医疗急救服务的最短途径。与交通速度下降相比，水浸导致道路不通对医疗急救服务的影响更大。最后，在三种洪水情景下的优化结果证明了我们模型的适用性，准确地确定了高优先级医疗急救设施的位置。未被淹没的人口现在可以保证15分钟的医疗应急响应。该研究为城市急诊科规划资源配置提供了科学依据，降低了非淹没地区医疗延误的风险。

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引用次数: 0

Community insights on tourism development and nature-based solutions for increased resilience to coastal hazards at Caota sand dunes Geopark in Taiwan 台湾曹塔沙丘地质公园旅游业发展的社区见解和基于自然的解决方案，以提高对海岸灾害的抵御能力

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100472

Viola Marcia van Onselen , Mucahid Mustafa Bayrak , Sierra Gladfelter , Tsung-Yi Lin

Geoparks have the ability to function as complex social-ecological systems, where the interactions between natural landscapes and local communities shape climate change adaptation and mitigation outcomes. This study evaluates how community-driven tourism initiatives at Caota Geopark, Taiwan, contribute to climate resilience by enabling public education and engagement with nature conservation. Using a social-ecological systems lens, this study explores how the interplay between community participation and coastal ecosystem processes supports Nature-based Solutions (NbS) in addressing locally identified climate risks. This is achieved through a combination of contextual analysis and qualitative methods, including focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews with local stakeholders. Thematic analysis revealed that environmental education and awareness-building have strengthened local commitment to environmental stewardship. Moreover, enhancing the buffering capacity of the coastal dunes and maintaining associated ecosystem services were identified as key strategies for mitigating local hazards. However, ongoing challenges such as waste accumulation, inadequate infrastructure, and human disturbances, undermine ecosystem functions and visitor experiences, revealing critical vulnerabilities within the social-ecological system. Additionally, the study found a gap in inclusive, bottom-up governance structures that could help integrate community needs into geopark planning. Building on these insights, the study proposes a framework for sustainable tourism management and locally grounded climate adaptation strategies that stimulate active community participation. It also offers policy recommendations to support more integrated, adaptive, and community-responsive geopark governance.

地质公园有能力作为复杂的社会生态系统发挥作用，其中自然景观与当地社区之间的相互作用决定了适应和减缓气候变化的结果。本研究评估了台湾高塔地质公园社区驱动的旅游项目如何通过促进公众教育和参与自然保护来促进气候适应能力。本研究利用社会生态系统的视角，探讨了社区参与与沿海生态系统过程之间的相互作用如何支持基于自然的解决方案（NbS）解决当地确定的气候风险。这是通过上下文分析和定性方法的结合来实现的，包括焦点小组讨论和与当地利益相关者的半结构化访谈。专题分析显示，环境教育和提高认识加强了当地对环境管理的承诺。此外，提高海岸沙丘的缓冲能力和维持相关的生态系统服务是减轻地方灾害的关键策略。然而，诸如垃圾堆积、基础设施不足和人为干扰等持续存在的挑战破坏了生态系统功能和游客体验，暴露了社会生态系统中的关键脆弱性。此外，该研究还发现，在包容性、自下而上的治理结构方面存在差距，这些结构有助于将社区需求纳入地质公园规划。在这些见解的基础上，该研究提出了可持续旅游管理框架和基于当地的气候适应战略，以促进社区积极参与。它还提供了政策建议，以支持更综合、适应性和社区响应的地质公园治理。

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引用次数: 0

Improving an estimation model for dam failure-induced loss of life and customizing it for North America 改进大坝溃坝导致的生命损失估算模型，并为北美定制

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100471

Samuel Ovu, Mauricio Dziedzic

The potential loss of life (LOL) resulting from dam failures represents a critical concern in dam safety and disaster management. Accurate estimation of LOL is paramount for informed decision-making, emergency preparedness, and the minimization of human casualties in such events. This paper proposes an improved model for LOL estimation associated with dam failures and shows how to customize it to specific regions, exemplifying with North America. The approach categorizes dam failure into subcases based on flood severity and the distance from the dam. Two empirical equations that serve as the calculation method for LOL formulated through multivariate regression analysis are derived using thirty-two dam failure subcases in North America. The datasets were split into train and test sets, yielding R² values of 0.9949 for low severity cases and 0.9955 for medium-high severity cases on the test sets. Graham's model was selected as a comparison benchmark due to its straightforward application, established use in LOL estimation, and minimal data requirements. The successful implementation of this model suggests its potential applicability for diverse regions, contributing to improved disaster preparedness and response strategies, as well as enhancing dam safety and community well-being downstream of dams.

大坝溃坝造成的潜在生命损失是大坝安全和灾害管理中的一个重要问题。准确估计LOL对于知情决策、应急准备和在此类事件中尽量减少人员伤亡至关重要。本文提出了一个与大坝溃坝相关的LOL估算改进模型，并展示了如何将其定制到特定地区，以北美为例。该方法根据洪水的严重程度和与大坝的距离将大坝溃坝分类为子案例。以北美32个溃坝子例为例，通过多元回归分析，导出了两个作为LOL计算方法的经验方程。将数据集分为训练集和测试集，在测试集上，低严重情况的R2值为0.9949，中高严重情况的R2值为0.9955。选择Graham的模型作为比较基准，因为其应用简单，在LOL估计中已建立使用，并且数据需求最小。该模型的成功实施表明，它可能适用于不同地区，有助于改善灾害准备和响应策略，并提高大坝安全和大坝下游社区的福祉。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluation of spatiotemporal effects of soil depth on shallow landslides and debris flows via coupled numerical analysis 耦合数值分析评价土壤深度对浅层滑坡和泥石流的时空影响

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100470

Seungjun Lee , Taeun Kang , Minseok Kim , Heemin Ko , Hyunuk An

Soil depth critically influences the timing and magnitude of shallow landslides and subsequent debris flows, yet its spatiotemporal effects remain insufficiently understood. This study investigates these effects through landslides–debris flows coupled numerical analysis, employing three soil depth configurations: the slope-based S model, the elevation-based Z model, and the U model, which assumes uniform soil depth across the study area. The 2011 Mt. Umyeon landslides in South Korea, a well-documented event with extensive field survey data, were simulated to validate the simulation results. Model performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic method. Results show that increasing soil depth enlarges the scale of landslides and debris flows while delaying their onset. However, when soil depth greatly exceeds rainfall intensity and cumulative rainfall, slope failure susceptibility decreases, emphasizing the spatiotemporal control of soil thickness. In debris flow simulations, soil depth strongly influenced erosion and entrainment processes, substantially affecting downstream residential damage estimates. Furthermore, our results indicate that when soil depth data are unavailable, the slope-based S model provides more spatiotemporally stable predictions of landslide and debris flow behavior. This study highlights the importance of soil depth in geohazard modeling and advances understanding of rainfall-induced landslide–debris flow hazards in ungauged mountainous regions.

土壤深度对浅层滑坡和随后的泥石流的发生时间和规模具有重要影响，但其时空效应仍未得到充分认识。本研究通过滑坡-泥石流耦合数值分析研究了这些影响，采用了三种土壤深度配置：基于坡度的S模型、基于高程的Z模型和假设整个研究区域土壤深度均匀的U模型。2011年的韩国雨眠山山体滑坡是一个有充分记录的事件，有大量的实地调查数据，为了验证模拟结果，进行了模拟。采用接收机工作特性法对模型性能进行评价。结果表明：随着土层深度的增加，滑坡和泥石流发生的规模增大，发生时间推迟；然而，当土壤深度大大超过降雨强度和累积降雨量时，边坡破坏敏感性降低，强调了土壤厚度的时空控制。在泥石流模拟中，土壤深度强烈影响侵蚀和夹带过程，极大地影响下游居民损失的估计。此外，我们的研究结果表明，当土壤深度数据不可用时，基于边坡的S模型提供了更多的时空稳定的滑坡和泥石流行为预测。这项研究强调了土壤深度在地质灾害建模中的重要性，并促进了对未测量山区降雨引起的滑坡-泥石流灾害的理解。

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引用次数: 0