Progress in Disaster Science最新文献_第6页

Global challenges and insights in disaster risk management at world cultural heritage sites 世界文化遗产地灾害风险管理的全球挑战和见解

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100477

Min Li , Takeyuki Okubo , Dowon Kim , Shakya Lata , Aya Miyazaki

Cultural heritage has faced significant challenges due to both natural and human-induced hazards, as well as the impacts of climate change in recent years. To safeguard the outstanding universal value of World Cultural Heritage (WCH) sites, this study focuses on disaster risk management (DRM) across these WCH sites globally. A questionnaire was distributed to 972 WCH sites, with 57 responding. The survey gathered information on hazard-related characteristics, historical disasters, the current status of DRM plans and measures, and the traditional knowledge related to DRM. The study found that approximately 72 % of the surveyed heritage sites feature timber structures or masonry structures with wooden elements, making them vulnerable to fire. Additionally, 40 % of WCH sites are located in mountainous, coastal, or riverside areas, exposing them to multiple natural hazards. Many sites (79 %) have been repurposed for commercial use, and about 42 % of the surveyed sites attract a large number of tourists, which may further increase disaster risks. The study findings also highlight the diverse range of hazards affecting monuments and archaeological sites in Africa, Asia, and Europe, with Africa and Europe facing particularly significant challenges due to climate change. From past disasters, it is evident that floods, strong winds, fires, and earthquakes have become more frequent in recent years, causing substantial damage to heritage sites. Notably, climate change is a key factor behind disasters like floods, fires, droughts, and extreme wind events. In addition, human-induced disasters, such as armed conflicts and vandalism, have also caused serious destruction to WCH sites. However, only about half of the surveyed heritage sites have a DRM plan in place or are in the process of developing one. The study further reveals that the lack of financial and material resources, expertise, and awareness of the importance of a DRM plan are the key reasons for the absence of DRM plans. On the other hand, traditional knowledge identified at these WCH sites, including specialized drainage system designs, traditional fire-fighting methods, and climate-resilient architectural features, could be integrated as effective disaster risk reduction measures in future DRM plans.

近年来，由于自然灾害和人为灾害以及气候变化的影响，文化遗产面临着重大挑战。为保护世界文化遗产突出的普遍价值，本研究着眼于全球世界文化遗产的灾害风险管理（DRM）。向972个WCH站点分发了问卷，有57个站点回复了问卷。调查收集了灾害相关特征、历史灾害、DRM计划和措施的现状以及与DRM相关的传统知识。研究发现，大约72%的被调查遗址以木结构或木结构砌体结构为特征，这使得它们很容易受到火灾的影响。此外，40%的卫生保健地点位于山区、沿海或河边地区，使其面临多种自然灾害。许多遗址（79%）已被重新用于商业用途，约42%的被调查遗址吸引了大量游客，这可能进一步增加灾害风险。研究结果还强调了影响非洲、亚洲和欧洲古迹和考古遗址的各种危险，其中非洲和欧洲因气候变化而面临特别重大的挑战。从过去的灾害来看，洪水、强风、火灾和地震近年来变得越来越频繁，对遗产造成了巨大的破坏。值得注意的是，气候变化是洪水、火灾、干旱和极端大风等灾害背后的关键因素。此外，武装冲突和人为破坏等人为灾害也对WCH遗址造成严重破坏。然而，在被调查的遗产地中，只有大约一半已经制定或正在制定数字版权管理计划。研究进一步表明，缺乏财务和物质资源、专业知识以及对DRM计划重要性的认识是缺乏DRM计划的主要原因。另一方面，在这些WCH遗址中发现的传统知识，包括专业排水系统设计、传统消防方法和气候适应性建筑特征，可以作为有效的减灾措施整合到未来的DRM计划中。

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引用次数: 0

Risky ground: Seismic hazards and transectional networks in the Pacific northwest 危险地带：太平洋西北部的地震危险和横断网

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100483

Farrukh A. Chishtie , John J. Clague

The Pacific Northwest faces significant seismic hazards from both great subduction earthquakes and more frequent in-slab events within the Juan de Fuca plate system. This paper presents a breakthrough shift in earthquake risk assessment by integrating geological knowledge from the natural sciences with Actor-Network Theory (ANT) and mobilities research from the social sciences to reconceptualize seismic risk through the lens of transectional networks involving human and non-human actors. We examine the translation processes through which seismic monitoring systems, building codes, emergency response protocols, geological formations, and emerging artificial intelligence/machine learning technologies co-constitute earthquake risk in the region. Drawing from recent advances in uncertainty quantification and economic impact assessment methodologies developed for climate litigation, we argue for more sophisticated measurement protocols that can capture the relational dynamics and cascading effects within seismic networks. The historical record of in-slab earthquakes, including the 24-year gap since the last magnitude 6+ event in 2001, illustrates how temporal patterns emerge from complex interactions between geological agencies and human systems. We develop a novel five-phase integrated transectional risk assessment methodology that holistically accounts for both human and non-human vulnerabilities as they emerge from dynamic network relationships across spatial, temporal, and organizational scales. This methodology operationalizes network mapping, translation analysis, transectional vulnerability assessment, integrated uncertainty quantification, and adaptive intervention design to move beyond traditional hazard-exposure-vulnerability frameworks. The transectional perspective reveals opportunities for earthquake risk reduction that go beyond traditional engineering approaches to encompass network reconfigurations, AI-enhanced monitoring systems, innovative financing mechanisms, and enhanced adaptive capacities across human-non-human assemblages. This interdisciplinary approach provides concrete pathways for developing more effective and equitable earthquake risk management strategies that recognize the agency of both geological processes and technological systems in shaping seismic resilience.

太平洋西北部面临着巨大的俯冲地震和更频繁的胡安德富卡板块系统内的板块内事件的地震危险。本文通过将自然科学的地质知识与行动者网络理论（ANT）和社会科学的流动性研究相结合，提出了地震风险评估的突破性转变，通过涉及人类和非人类行动者的横断面网络的视角重新定义地震风险。我们研究了地震监测系统、建筑规范、应急响应协议、地质构造和新兴的人工智能/机器学习技术共同构成该地区地震风险的翻译过程。根据为气候诉讼开发的不确定性量化和经济影响评估方法的最新进展，我们主张采用更复杂的测量协议，以捕捉地震网络中的关系动态和级联效应。板内地震的历史记录，包括自2001年上一次6+级地震以来的24年间隔，说明了地质机构和人类系统之间复杂的相互作用如何产生时间模式。我们开发了一种新的五阶段综合横断面风险评估方法，从整体上考虑人类和非人类脆弱性，因为它们出现在跨越空间、时间和组织尺度的动态网络关系中。该方法将网络映射、转换分析、横断面脆弱性评估、综合不确定性量化和自适应干预设计结合起来，超越了传统的风险暴露-脆弱性框架。横断面视角揭示了减少地震风险的机会，这些机会超越了传统的工程方法，包括网络重构、人工智能增强的监测系统、创新的融资机制，以及增强人类与非人类组合的适应能力。这种跨学科的方法为开发更有效和公平的地震风险管理策略提供了具体的途径，这些策略认识到地质过程和技术系统在塑造地震恢复力方面的作用。

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引用次数: 0

Strategy formulation for enhancing the effectiveness of health services after a devastating earthquake in Turkey: An integrated approach of in-depth interview and AHP1 土耳其毁灭性地震后提高卫生服务效力的战略制定：深度访谈和AHP1的综合方法

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100485

Sefer Aygün, Yeter Demir Uslu

This study aims to identify and prioritize problems experienced during the acute post-earthquake period in secondary healthcare facilities using AHP and Fuzzy AHP methods. Qualitative interviews were conducted with managers actively involved in healthcare facility management during this period. The research was carried out in three secondary healthcare institutions located in provinces affected by the February 6, 2023 earthquakes: Elbistan State Hospital (Kahramanmaraş/9th region), Dörtyol State Hospital (Hatay/13th region), and Malatya Battalgazi State Hospital (Malatya/4th region). A two-stage research design was employed: qualitative methods were used in the first phase and quantitative methods in the second. The population consisted of all secondary-level healthcare institutions in the earthquake zone, and purposive sampling was used to select the sample. In the qualitative phase, individual interviews were conducted with 17 managers. As a result, 9 main criteria were identified. In the quantitative phase, these criteria were prioritized using AHP and Fuzzy AHP methods with input from 5 additional managers who played active roles in post-earthquake management. The most critical criteria and their importance weights are as follows: hospital operations and management after an earthquake (AHP: 0.227, FAHP: 0.231), infrastructure and technical conditions (AHP: 0.208, FAHP: 0.209), hospital disaster and emergency planning (AHP:0.178, FAHP:0.182), logistics and material management (AHP:0.123, FAHP:0.119), personnel management process (AHP:0.092, FAHP:0.089), communication and collaboration process (AHP:0.084, FAHP:0.085), funeral identification and security process (AHP:0.042, FAHP:0.043), patient and patient relative relations (AHP:0.030, FAHP:0.028), and social media impact (AHP:0.016, FAHP:0.015). If decision-makers allocate existing resources to the first three criteria, they will have resolved more than 60 % of the identified problems.

本研究旨在运用层次分析法和模糊层次分析法，找出二级医疗机构震后急性期所遇到的问题，并加以优先排序。在此期间，对积极参与医疗设施管理的管理人员进行了定性访谈。该研究是在位于2023年2月6日地震受灾省份的三家二级医疗机构进行的：Elbistan州立医院（kahramanmaraku /9区）、Dörtyol州立医院（Hatay/13区）和Malatya battalion gazi州立医院（Malatya/4区）。采用两阶段研究设计：第一阶段采用定性方法，第二阶段采用定量方法。人群为震区所有二级医疗机构，采用有目的抽样方法选择样本。在定性阶段，对17名管理人员进行了个别访谈。结果，确定了9个主要标准。在定量阶段，使用AHP和模糊AHP方法对这些标准进行排序，并从另外5名在震后管理中发挥积极作用的管理人员那里输入信息。最关键的标准及其重要性权重如下：地震后医院的运营和管理（AHP: 0.227, FAHP: 0.231），基础设施和技术条件(AHP: 0.208, FAHP：0.209)、医院灾害与应急预案（AHP:0.178, FAHP:0.182）、物流与物资管理（AHP:0.123, FAHP:0.119）、人事管理流程（AHP:0.092, FAHP:0.089）、沟通与协作流程（AHP:0.084, FAHP:0.085）、丧葬鉴定与安全流程（AHP:0.042, FAHP:0.043）、患者与患者亲属关系（AHP:0.030, FAHP:0.028）、社交媒体影响（AHP:0.016, FAHP:0.015）。如果决策者将现有资源分配给前三个标准，他们将解决超过60%的已确定问题。

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引用次数: 0

Bipolarization in the acceptance of reusing contaminated soil generated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident of 2011 2011年福岛第一核电站事故污染土壤再利用接受的两极分化

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100479

Tomoko Watanabe , Hitomi Matsunaga , Aizhan Zabirowa , Stephen Takeshi Terada , Yuya Kashiwazaki , Makiko Orita , Thierry Schneider , Noboru Takamura

The Japanese government has legislated the relocation of contaminated soil containing radioactive materials outside of Fukushima Prefecture by 2045 to accelerate Fukushima's recovery following the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS). In this study, we investigated and analyzed factors associated with acceptance of the reuse of contaminated soil (RCS) among the Japanese public. We conducted an online questionnaire survey exactly ten years after the storage of radioactive contaminated soil began at interim storage facilities. We analyzed 5257 responses obtained from citizens aged 18 and over from all 48 prefectures of Japan. The study clarified that 46.7 % (2451) of participants accepted RCS, while 53.3 % (2806) did not, indicating that public opinion is polarized on this issue. The results revealed regional differences in opinions regarding RCS. Furthermore, the characteristics, knowledge of radiation, and interest in the FDNPS accident influenced opinions regarding RCS. In addition, people who were not accepting tended to be more concerned about the health effects of RCS, whereas those who were accepting were concerned about reputational damage. These results emphasizing the distinction among populations on their concerns are really interesting and can open a way forward for implementing RCS in a sustainable way.

日本政府已立法规定，到2045年，将福岛县外含有放射性物质的受污染土壤重新安置，以加速福岛在福岛第一核电站事故后的恢复。在这项研究中，我们调查和分析了与日本公众接受污染土壤再利用（RCS）相关的因素。在临时贮存设施开始贮存放射性污染土壤整整十年后，我们进行了一项在线问卷调查。我们分析了5257份来自日本所有48个县的18岁及以上公民的回复。研究表明，46.7%（2451人）的参与者接受RCS， 53.3%（2806人）的参与者不接受RCS，表明公众舆论在这个问题上两极分化。结果显示，对RCS的看法存在地区差异。此外，辐射特性、辐射知识和对FDNPS事故的兴趣影响了人们对RCS的看法。此外，不接受RCS的人往往更关心RCS对健康的影响，而接受RCS的人则更关心声誉损害。这些结果强调了不同人群所关注的问题的区别，这非常有趣，可以为可持续地实施RCS开辟一条道路。

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引用次数: 0

Integrating disability-inclusive disaster education in primary schools: A CASE from Yogyakarta, Indonesia 整合残障包容的小学灾害教育：以印尼日惹为例

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100482

Nurul Hidayati Rofiah , Norimune Kawai

Students with disabilities are among the most vulnerable during disasters, yet they are often excluded from disaster risk reduction (DRR) initiatives. Early disaster education offers significant benefits for inclusive preparedness. This study examined DRR education practices in inclusive primary schools, identified effective strategies, and evaluated the impact on students with and without disabilities. A quasi-experimental design was applied in nine inclusive schools in Yogyakarta, with students assigned to control and experimental groups. Questionnaires adapted from validated instruments measured knowledge, risk perception, awareness, and readiness. Statistical analysis showed significant differences between students who received the program and those who did not. The findings indicate that disaster education enhances preparedness among students with disabilities and adds to limited evidence on inclusive DRR in low- and middle-income countries. The study demonstrates the feasibility of disaster education in inclusive settings and the importance of adapting content and methods to diverse learners. Several limitations should be noted. The study involved a relatively small sample from one province, limiting generalizability. It included only students with mild intellectual disabilities, leaving out those with sensory, motor, or more complex disabilities. In addition, it assessed short-term outcomes only, without examining medium- or long-term effects. These limitations should be considered when interpreting the results. Future research should include larger and more diverse samples, incorporate multiple disability groups, and explore alternative teaching methods such as peer tutoring, songs, and games. Ultimately, inclusive DRR will not only strengthen resilience but also ensure the personal safety of students with disabilities.

残疾学生是灾害期间最脆弱的群体之一，但他们往往被排除在减少灾害风险倡议之外。早期灾害教育为包容性备灾提供了重大益处。本研究考察了全纳小学的DRR教育实践，确定了有效的策略，并评估了对残疾学生和非残疾学生的影响。在日惹的九所包容性学校采用准实验设计，将学生分为对照组和实验组。从经过验证的工具改编的问卷测量了知识、风险感知、意识和准备程度。统计分析显示，接受该项目的学生和未接受该项目的学生之间存在显著差异。研究结果表明，灾害教育提高了残疾学生的备灾能力，并为中低收入国家包容性减灾的有限证据提供了新的证据。本研究证明了灾害教育在全纳环境下的可行性，以及调整内容和方法以适应不同学习者的重要性。应该注意到几个限制。该研究涉及一个省份的相对较小的样本，限制了普遍性。它只包括有轻度智力残疾的学生，不包括那些有感觉、运动或更复杂残疾的学生。此外，它只评估了短期结果，没有研究中期或长期影响。在解释结果时应考虑这些限制。未来的研究应该包括更大、更多样化的样本，纳入多个残疾群体，并探索其他教学方法，如同伴辅导、歌曲和游戏。最终，包容性的DRR不仅可以增强韧性，还可以确保残疾学生的人身安全。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of a full-scale mass casualty exercise on hospital staff and implications for future preparedness – A pre-post study 全面大规模伤亡演习对医院工作人员的影响及对未来准备工作的影响-一项前后研究

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100478

Maik von der Forst , Barbara J. Germann , Hanne Schaefer , Gabriel A. Salg , Markus A. Weigand , Felix C.F. Schmitt , Maximilian Dietrich , Stefan Mohr , Janna Küllenberg , Markus Ries , Erik Popp

Study hypothesis

Mass casualty incidents (MCI) can overwhelm hospital capacities. Effective management requires emergency plans and exercises to improve familiarity, confidence, and skills. Scientific evaluation of exercises is crucial to identify their impact, this study hypothesized indirect benefits for all staff from MCI exercises, even non-participants.

Methods

Two prospective, representative, anonymous surveys were conducted among all professional groups before and after a full-scale MCI exercise at Heidelberg University Hospital. Descriptive analyses were conducted for the total sample (N = 669). Hierarchical linear regression analyses were performed for the dependent constructs Familiarity with MCI Plan, Familiarity with Alert Process, Knowledge of Tasks, and Knowledge about Roles and Cooperation.

Results

The exercise positively influenced knowledge of the MCI plan across all four constructs. Employees in management positions and physicians reported higher scores across all constructs. There appeared to be an overall improvement, suggesting that all employees have benefited. Greater significance was observed for theoretical than for practical knowledge.

Conclusions

There were significant improvements of theoretical and practical knowledge of the MCI plan after an exercise. All employees, including those without exercise participation, appeared to benefit, possibly due to increased awareness and enhanced preparation. However, these results cannot be conclusively attributed to the exercise itself.

研究假设大规模伤亡事件（MCI）可能超出医院的能力。有效的管理需要应急计划和练习来提高熟悉度、信心和技能。对锻炼的科学评估对于确定其影响至关重要，本研究假设所有员工都能从MCI锻炼中间接获益，即使是非参与者。方法在海德堡大学医院全面MCI训练前后对所有专业群体进行了两项前瞻性、代表性、匿名调查。对总样本（N = 669）进行描述性分析。对MCI计划熟悉度、警报过程熟悉度、任务知识和角色与合作知识进行层次线性回归分析。结果在所有四个构念中，锻炼正向影响MCI计划的知识。管理职位的员工和医生在所有构念中得分更高。整体情况似乎有所改善，这表明所有员工都受益了。理论知识比实践知识更有意义。结论实验后患者对MCI计划的理论和实践知识均有显著提高。所有员工，包括那些没有参加锻炼的员工，似乎都受益了，这可能是由于意识的提高和准备的加强。然而，这些结果并不能完全归因于锻炼本身。

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引用次数: 0

The impacts of local emergency management agency resource constraints on planning for hazard mitigation and debris management 地方应急管理机构资源限制对减灾和碎片管理规划的影响

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100480

Julia C. Crowley , Bowen Liu , Ailing Nan

This research aims to measure hazard mitigation and debris management planning resource constraints for local emergency management agencies throughout the United States. A survey tool was developed that contained sections pertaining to plan development, plan implementation, and collaborative partnerships with other planning stakeholders. The survey was distributed to local emergency management agencies in the 50 states, five territories, and the District of Columbia. After cleaning the data, the sample consisted of 309 local emergency managers that represented all 10 regions of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Relevant statistical tests were run to analyze the data. While the results do not provide sufficient evidence to support the hypothesis that resource constraints may inhibit the development of local hazard mitigation plans, there is strong evidence that resource constraints, particularly related to staffing and competing priorities, are significant barriers to the development of local debris management plans. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that jurisdictions with higher staffing capacities are significantly more likely to implement their hazard mitigation and debris management plans effectively. Finally, the results indicate that there were no statistically significant differences in reported collaboration rates between the two plan types across eight planning stakeholder categories. Moreover, partnerships with academic institutions were the least common for hazard mitigation and debris management plans. It is recommended that more partnerships be developed between local emergency management agencies and academic institutions, particularly with planning degree programs, to address these local planning resource constraints.

本研究旨在衡量美国各地地方应急管理机构的减灾和碎片管理规划资源限制。开发了一个调查工具，其中包含与计划开发、计划实施以及与其他计划涉众的协作伙伴关系有关的部分。该调查已分发给50个州、5个地区和哥伦比亚特区的当地应急管理机构。在清理数据后，样本由309名当地应急管理人员组成，他们代表了联邦紧急事务管理局所有10个地区。进行了相关的统计检验来分析数据。虽然研究结果没有提供足够的证据来支持资源限制可能阻碍地方减灾计划制定的假设，但有强有力的证据表明，资源限制，特别是与人员配备和相互竞争的优先事项有关的资源限制，是制定地方碎片管理计划的重大障碍。此外，结果表明，人员配备能力较高的司法管辖区更有可能有效地实施其减灾和碎片管理计划。最后，结果表明，在8个规划利益相关者类别中，两种计划类型之间报告的协作率没有统计学上的显著差异。此外，在减灾和碎片管理计划中，与学术机构建立伙伴关系是最不常见的。建议在地方应急管理机构和学术机构之间建立更多的伙伴关系，特别是在规划学位课程方面，以解决这些地方规划资源限制问题。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring patterns of short- and mid-term essential resource loss following hurricane Ike: A mixture modeling approach 探索飓风艾克后短期和中期基本资源损失模式：一种混合建模方法

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100481

Yuki Shigemoto, William Giniewski

Disasters such as hurricanes disrupt access to essential resources, but loss is not uniform, as it varies in intensity, duration, and psychological impact. Guided by Conservation of Resources (COR) theory, this study used secondary data from the Galveston Bay Recovery Study (ICPSR 34801) to identify patterns of short-term (at least one day) and mid-term (more than one week) resource loss after Hurricane Ike and to examine links with demographics and psychological distress. Participants were 658 adults from Galveston and Chambers counties who reported loss across nine resources (electricity, drinking water, housing, food, money, job, transportation, clothing, shelter) and symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, and anxiety. Mixture modeling yielded four distinct loss profiles at both time points. Most people were classified into profiles with limited disruption, while smaller subgroups experienced severe or compounded loss. High-loss classes were disproportionately low-income, female, and racially/ethnically marginalized and showed significantly higher PTSD and depression symptoms. Over time, many transitioned to lower-loss classes, indicating partial recovery, but others remained in or moved into persistent high-loss profiles, especially when early financial or employment disruptions occurred. Findings underscore heterogeneous recovery trajectories and the need for holistic, equity-focused strategies that address both immediate and sustained resource deprivation.

飓风等灾害破坏了对基本资源的获取，但损失并不均匀，因为其强度、持续时间和心理影响各不相同。在资源保护（COR）理论的指导下，本研究使用加尔维斯顿湾恢复研究（ICPSR 34801）的二次数据来确定飓风艾克后短期（至少一天）和中期（超过一周）资源损失的模式，并检查人口统计和心理困扰的联系。参与者是来自加尔维斯顿和钱伯斯县的658名成年人，他们报告了九种资源（电力、饮用水、住房、食物、金钱、工作、交通、衣服、住所）的损失，以及创伤后应激障碍（PTSD）、抑郁和焦虑的症状。混合模型在两个时间点产生了四个不同的损失曲线。大多数人被归类为干扰有限的概况，而较小的亚组则经历了严重或复合的损失。高损失阶层不成比例地是低收入、女性和种族/民族边缘化阶层，并表现出明显更高的创伤后应激障碍和抑郁症状。随着时间的推移，许多人过渡到低损失类别，表明部分复苏，但其他人仍然处于或进入持续的高损失状态，特别是在早期金融或就业中断发生时。研究结果强调了异质性的恢复轨迹，以及解决当前和持续资源匮乏问题的整体、公平战略的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

Effect of weather on crowd motion accidents 天气对人群运动事故的影响

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100475

Dóra Edelmann , Ágota Drégelyi-Kiss , Tibor Goda

Background and objective

Weather conditions are critical to safety at mass events, impacting pedestrian movement and emergency evacuation. This study analyzed fatal crowd accidents and their correlation with weather.

Methods

Data from 161 fatal crowd crush accidents (CCA) at mass gatherings in 65 countries (2000–2024) were collected, including location, date, attendance, casualties, fatalities, weather conditions, and population density data. Apparent temperature (AT) and Humidex (HI) were calculated for the accident days and the preceding and following days. Descriptive analysis and multivariate linear regression model were conducted.

Results

The majority of fatal accidents (61 %, n = 98) occurred in countries with higher population densities. In 59.74 % of cases, the Humidex was above the high discomfort threshold (>30 °C) on the day of the accident. We found a positive monotonic correlation between the number of fatalities, attendance, and air pressure characteristics in the period following and on the day of the accident.

Conclusions

Due to the increased risk of accidents at mass gatherings, risk prevention services and governmental bodies must enact specialized, coordinated measures to mitigate such occurrences. A comprehensive analysis of atmospheric conditions is paramount in preventing accidents.

背景和目标天气条件对大型活动的安全至关重要，影响行人的移动和紧急疏散。本研究分析了致命的人群事故及其与天气的关系。方法收集来自65个国家（2000-2024年）的161起大型集会致命人群挤压事故（CCA）的数据，包括地点、日期、出席人数、伤亡人数、死亡人数、天气状况和人口密度数据。计算事故发生日及事故前后的视温度（AT）和湿度（HI）。进行描述性分析和多元线性回归模型。结果绝大多数致命事故（61%,n = 98）发生在人口密度较高的国家。在59.74%的病例中，Humidex在事故当天高于高不适阈值（>30°C）。我们发现，在事故发生后的一段时间内，死亡人数、出勤率和气压特征之间存在正单调相关。结论：由于大规模集会发生事故的风险增加，风险预防服务机构和政府机构必须制定专门的、协调的措施来减少此类事件的发生。对大气状况的全面分析对防止事故至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Grotesque representations of catastrophe: interpreting cultural narratives in disaster postcards of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and 1923 Great Kantō Earthquake 灾难的怪诞表现：解读1906年旧金山地震和1923年大地震灾难明信片中的文化叙事

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100476

Larissa Casteliani Marinho Falcao, Norio Maki

This article examines how grotesque shaped cultural representations of disasters, by analysing 627 postcards depicting the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and the 1923 Great Kantō Earthquake. Conducted in 2025, this study employed comparative-historical and semiotic methodologies to guide a connotative analysis. The sampling represents a small fraction of an extensive production, allowing meaningful insights to be drawn by focusing on the significant. The purpose is to investigate how disasters are visually and narratively processed through grotesque forms within distinct cultural frameworks, contributing to Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) studies by highlighting interpretive dimensions of risk perception. Findings reveal divergent tendencies: San Francisco postcards often employed satire and humour, reflecting individualism, accountability, and a blame-oriented risk culture; while Japanese postcards depicted macabre imagery of mass death, embedded in collective notions of danger, shame, and no-fault. This contrast illustrates how the grotesque functions as a cultural mechanism for resilience, with satire serving as critique, and the macabre providing a means of confronting social order. By situating these visual narratives within cultural contexts, this study shows that disaster postcards are vehicles for processing trauma. The research concludes by proposing DRR policies to integrate cultural perspectives into its strategies, to align with community values.

本文通过分析627张描绘1906年旧金山地震和1923年关东大地震的明信片，探讨了怪异的灾难文化表征是如何形成的。这项研究于2025年进行，采用比较历史和符号学方法来指导内涵分析。抽样代表了广泛生产的一小部分，允许通过关注重要内容来获得有意义的见解。目的是调查在不同的文化框架内，如何通过怪诞的形式在视觉上和叙事上处理灾害，通过强调风险感知的解释维度，为减少灾害风险（DRR）研究做出贡献。研究结果揭示了不同的趋势：旧金山明信片经常采用讽刺和幽默，反映了个人主义、问责制和以责备为导向的风险文化；而日本的明信片描绘了大规模死亡的可怕画面，嵌入了危险、羞耻和无过错的集体观念。这种对比说明了怪诞是如何作为一种文化机制发挥作用的，讽刺是一种批判，而恐怖是一种对抗社会秩序的手段。通过将这些视觉叙事置于文化背景中，本研究表明灾难明信片是处理创伤的工具。该研究最后提出了DRR政策，将文化观点纳入其战略，以与社区价值观保持一致。

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