Progress in Disaster Science最新文献_第7页

Application of geospatial and ICT technologies for landslide disaster risk reduction in Rwanda 在卢旺达应用地理空间和信息通信技术减少滑坡灾害风险

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100466

Willy Blaise Ineza , Emelyne Clarisse Izere , Roland Sonnenschein , Collins B. Kukunda , Fred Tumwebaze , Richard Shumbusho , Khamarrul Azahari Razak

This study provides a new insight into landslide advancement based on the state-of-art mapping technology, time-series imagery, and disaster informatics in Rwanda, where 40 % of its lands susceptible to landslides. This is the first nationally supported and locally evidenced use-case of the iMaster/DocuCam, a scalable system for landslide monitoring and detection in the African continent, originally developed for advanced industrial automation. The system continuously collects high-resolution images and weather data to monitor landslides and alert relevant authorities. We used “Quadtree” Computer Vision algorithms to automatically detect landslides by pre-processing images and measuring brownish pixels. Using statistical modelling, comparison with previous images is made and deviation in the number of brown pixels is determined. If deviation exceeds the threshold, a landslide is detected, and a warning is sent out. The results are also stored in the Open-Source SQL database and accessible via web-based Graphical User Interface. We also explored user requirements, needs and demands of stakeholders at national and local level for developing the people-centered early warning system in Rwanda, as promoted by the Sendai Framework. This study manifests the commitments of the Rwandan government to accelerate the localized disaster risk reduction action for societal resilience in the tropics.

本研究基于卢旺达最先进的测绘技术、时间序列图像和灾害信息，为滑坡进展提供了新的见解，卢旺达40%的土地易受滑坡影响。iMaster/DocuCam是一种可扩展的系统，用于非洲大陆的滑坡监测和探测，最初是为先进的工业自动化而开发的，这是iMaster/DocuCam的第一个国家支持和当地证明的用例。该系统不断收集高分辨率图像和天气数据，以监测山体滑坡并向有关当局发出警报。我们使用“四叉树”计算机视觉算法通过预处理图像和测量棕色像素来自动检测滑坡。利用统计模型，与之前的图像进行比较，并确定棕色像素数量的偏差。如果偏差超过阈值，则检测到滑坡，并发出警告。结果也存储在开源SQL数据库中，并可通过基于web的图形用户界面访问。我们还探讨了在仙台框架的推动下，在卢旺达发展以人为本的预警系统时，国家和地方各级利益攸关方的用户要求、需求和要求。这项研究表明卢旺达政府致力于加快局部减少灾害风险的行动，以提高热带地区的社会复原力。

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引用次数: 0

Identification of social media approach for strengthening the generation Z disaster capacity on drought issues 确定社会媒体方法以加强Z世代应对干旱问题的能力

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100467

Puspita Indra Wardhani , Siti Azizah Susilawati , Yunus Aris Wibowo , Ratih Puspita Dewi , Wahyu Widiyatmoko , Siti Hadiyati Nur Hafida , Edwin Maulana , Sri Utami , Isna Hayatun

Drought is a significant global issue for ecosystems and the environment, particularly in karst regions. This study aimed to investigate the tendency of Generation Z (Gen Z) to utilize social media in addressing drought in tropical regions. Data collection was conducted through structured interviews with at least 60 respondents belonging to the Gen Z group. An exploratory-descriptive approach was employed to analyze the trends in social media use among Gen Z and their perceptions of the drought issue. Furthermore, a strategy was devised to increase Gen Z's awareness of drought through social media using the causal loop diagram (CLD) approach. The study results showed that Gen Z uses TikTok (46.5 %) and Instagram (20.6 %) more frequently on social media. Gen Z's response to the drought issue on social media tends to involve complaining (25 %) and expressing concerns (18 %). Gen Z believes that actions that can be taken to overcome drought include constructing new wells, implementing water management strategies, reservoir construction, and other conservation efforts. Future drought campaigns targeting youth can use the study's findings as evaluation material.

干旱对生态系统和环境来说是一个重大的全球性问题，特别是在喀斯特地区。本研究旨在调查Z世代（Gen Z）利用社交媒体应对热带地区干旱的趋势。数据收集是通过对至少60名Z世代受访者的结构化访谈进行的。采用探索性描述性方法来分析Z世代使用社交媒体的趋势以及他们对干旱问题的看法。此外，设计了一项策略，通过使用因果循环图（CLD）方法，通过社交媒体提高Z世代对干旱的认识。研究结果显示，Z世代在社交媒体上使用抖音（46.5%）和Instagram（20.6%）的频率更高。Z世代在社交媒体上对干旱问题的回应往往包括抱怨（25%）和表达担忧（18%）。Z世代认为，可以采取的措施包括建造新井、实施水管理策略、建造水库和其他保护措施。未来针对年轻人的抗旱运动可以使用这项研究的发现作为评估材料。

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引用次数: 0

Health issues treated by emergency medical teams following natural disasters in Japan and their relation to the disaster 日本自然灾害后紧急医疗队处理的健康问题及其与灾害的关系

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100468

Ami Fukunaga , Fu Tarui , Takahito Yoshida , Inn Kynn Khaing , Odgerel Chimed-Ochir , Yui Yumiya , Akihiro Taji , Kouki Akahoshi , Yoshiki Toyokuni , Kayako Chishima , Seiji Mimura , Akinori Wakai , Hisayoshi Kondo , Yuichi Koido , Tatsuhiko Kubo

This study examined health issues recorded by Emergency Medical Teams during four large-scale disasters in Japan (2019–2021) and their relation to the disaster. Logistic regression analyses were conducted on data from the Japan Surveillance in Post-Extreme Emergencies and Disasters system to examine associations between specific health issues and their relation to the disaster. Of the 822 health consultations recorded, 17.5 %, 51.3 %, and 31.1 % reported health issues directly related, indirectly related, and unrelated to the disaster, respectively. Minor injury (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 4.65, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 2.75–7.86), wound (AOR = 5.64, 95 % CI = 3.31–9.60), and moderate injury (AOR = 35.97, 95 % CI = 5.47–236.63) were significantly associated with a direct relation to the disaster. Hypertension (AOR = 1.69, 95 % CI = 1.05–2.71), disaster-related stress symptoms (AOR = 2.32, 95 % CI = 1.37–3.90), and treatment interruption (AOR = 2.05, 95 % CI = 1.07–3.91) were significantly associated with an indirect relation to the disaster. Fever (AOR = 2.89, 95 % CI = 1.45–5.39) and skin disease (AOR = 2.43, 95 % CI = 1.34–4.42) were significantly associated with a non-relation to the disaster. These findings highlight the multifaceted nature of health issues following disasters, emphasizing the need for response strategies that address not only direct health effects, but also indirectly related and non-disaster-related health issues.

本研究调查了紧急医疗队在日本（2019-2021年）四次大规模灾害期间记录的健康问题及其与灾害的关系。对来自日本极端紧急情况和灾害后监测系统的数据进行了逻辑回归分析，以检查特定健康问题与其与灾害的关系之间的关联。在记录在案的822次健康咨询中，分别有17.5%、51.3%和31.1%报告了与灾难直接相关、间接相关和无关的健康问题。轻微损伤（调整优势比[AOR] = 4.65, 95%可信区间[CI] = 2.75 ~ 7.86）、伤口（AOR = 5.64, 95% CI = 3.31 ~ 9.60）和中度损伤（AOR = 35.97, 95% CI = 5.47 ~ 236.63）与灾害直接相关。高血压（AOR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.05-2.71）、灾难相关应激症状（AOR = 2.32, 95% CI = 1.37-3.90）和治疗中断（AOR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.07-3.91）与灾难的间接关系显著相关。发热（AOR = 2.89, 95% CI = 1.45-5.39）和皮肤病（AOR = 2.43, 95% CI = 1.34-4.42）与灾难无关。这些调查结果突出了灾后健康问题的多面性，强调需要制定应对战略，不仅处理直接健康影响，而且处理间接相关和与灾害无关的健康问题。

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引用次数: 0

Association of community resilience and residents' consumption intentions: A study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China 社区弹性与居民消费意愿的关系——基于京津冀地区的研究

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100465

Bo Shen , Lishuo Guo , Shuai Cui , Yi Peng

Shocks from natural disasters and emergencies broadly affect residents' perceptions of uncertainty, dampening their consumption intentions. Yet, few studies have examined the relationship between community resilience and residents' consumption intentions. This study explored the roles of physical spatial resilience and social capital resilience in influencing residents' consumption intentions with survey data from residents in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China. The results generated from structural equation modeling indicate that both social capital resilience and physical space resilience significantly influence residents' consumption intentions, with social capital resilience having a stronger indirect effect and physical spatial resilience exhibiting a more pronounced direct effect. These findings highlight the value of resilient community development in mitigating uncertainty and fostering consumption.

自然灾害和突发事件的冲击广泛影响了居民对不确定性的认知，抑制了他们的消费意愿。然而，很少有研究考察社区弹性与居民消费意愿之间的关系。本研究以京津冀地区居民为研究对象，探讨物理空间弹性和社会资本弹性对居民消费意愿的影响。结构方程模型结果表明，社会资本弹性和物理空间弹性对居民消费意愿均有显著影响，其中社会资本弹性的间接影响更强，物理空间弹性的直接影响更明显。这些发现突出了弹性社区发展在减轻不确定性和促进消费方面的价值。

引用次数: 0

Assessing the long-term effectiveness and socioeconomic benefits associated with ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction measures aimed at mitigating the impact of sediment-related events in Nepal 评估旨在减轻尼泊尔与泥沙有关事件影响的基于生态系统的减少灾害风险措施的长期有效性和社会经济效益

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100464

Hayato Kakinuma , Ching-Ying Tsou , Daisuke Higaki , Reona Kawakami , Chandra Sekar Gautum

The Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR) approach is widely used for slope stabilization and erosion control, yet its long-term effectiveness, structural integrity, and socioeconomic benefits remain insufficiently understood. This study qualitatively assesses countermeasures to geohazards that were implemented at three sites in Nepal as part of the Japan International Cooperation Agency's (JICA's) technical cooperation projects, using locally available materials (rock-filled wire gabions and vegetation). Photo-based comparisons revealed an increase in vegetation cover over 20 to 30 years in previously degraded areas. Gabion check dams stabilized gullies and trapped sediment, but experienced deterioration due to wire corrosion and breakage. A debris flow at Nallu Khola triggered by torrential rainfall on 26–28 September 2024 further exposed the vulnerability of these structures to extreme events, emphasizing the need for more resilient designs. Vegetation-based countermeasures provided livelihood benefits by supplying bamboo for fencing, livestock feed, and household materials. However, economic development has shifted residents toward market-based livelihoods, reducing their reliance on these resources. The sustained activities of the JICA-established user groups highlight the potential for long-term community engagement in land and forest management. While qualitative data offer initial insights, quantitative assessments are needed for precise and standardized evaluations of the countermeasures' effectiveness.

基于生态系统的灾害风险降低（Eco-DRR）方法被广泛用于边坡稳定和侵蚀控制，但其长期有效性、结构完整性和社会经济效益仍未得到充分认识。本研究定性地评估了作为日本国际协力机构（JICA）技术合作项目的一部分，在尼泊尔的三个地点实施的地质灾害对策，使用当地可用的材料（填石铁丝网和植被）。基于照片的比较显示，在过去的退化地区，植被覆盖在20至30年间有所增加。格宾挡土坝稳定了沟壑并截留了沉积物，但由于金属丝腐蚀和断裂而恶化。2024年9月26日至28日的暴雨引发了Nallu Khola的泥石流，进一步暴露了这些结构在极端事件下的脆弱性，强调了对更具弹性设计的需求。以植被为基础的对策通过提供用于围栏、牲畜饲料和家庭材料的竹子来提供生计效益。然而，经济发展使居民转向以市场为基础的生计，减少了他们对这些资源的依赖。jica设立的用户小组的持续活动突出了社区长期参与土地和森林管理的潜力。虽然定性数据提供了初步的见解，但需要定量评估来精确和标准化地评估对策的有效性。

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引用次数: 0

Earthquake loss estimation due to damage to residential masonry buildings during scenario earthquakes in Nepal 尼泊尔模拟地震中住宅砌体建筑损坏的地震损失估算

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100463

Sunita Ghimire, Hari Ram Parajuli, Prem Nath Maskey

Historical records indicate that large-magnitude earthquakes have frequently impacted Nepal, leading to widespread destruction and significant loss of life. This study quantifies potential earthquake losses for residential masonry structures by analyzing damage data from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake across 31 affected districts. The residential buildings in the study area are categorized into seven typologies based on construction materials and the number of stories. Damage states were classified into five grades using the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98). Based on these classifications, empirical fragility curves were developed. These curves, integrated with exposure, consequence, vulnerability, and fault rupture models, served as the foundation for a loss estimation analysis. We examined three distinct earthquake scenarios– two historical and one hypothetical - that are representative of seismic activity in central, eastern, and western Nepal. Although post-2015 Gorkha earthquake reconstruction efforts resulted in approximately 1,000,000 seismically compliant residential buildings, an estimated 814,690 pre-existing masonry buildings remain highly vulnerable due to their noncompliance with seismic provisions. This study provides municipality-level economic loss estimations, as well as damage distributions for residential masonry buildings, for three scenarios, marking the first time this has been done in the study area.

历史记载表明，尼泊尔频繁发生大地震，造成大范围破坏和重大人员伤亡。本研究通过分析2015年廓尔喀地震31个受灾地区的破坏数据，量化了住宅砌体结构的潜在地震损失。研究区域内的住宅建筑根据建筑材料和层高划分为七种类型。使用欧洲大地震震级（EMS-98）将地震破坏状态分为五个等级。在此基础上，建立了经验脆弱性曲线。这些曲线与暴露、后果、脆弱性和断层破裂模型相结合，成为损失估计分析的基础。我们研究了三种不同的地震情景——两种是历史的，一种是假设的——它们代表了尼泊尔中部、东部和西部的地震活动。尽管2015年后的廓尔喀地震重建工作产生了大约100万栋符合地震要求的住宅建筑，但估计有814,690栋原有的砖石建筑仍然非常脆弱，因为它们不符合地震规定。本研究提供了市政一级的经济损失估计，以及住宅砌体建筑在三种情况下的损害分布，这是第一次在研究区域进行这样的研究。

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引用次数: 0

Adversity and resilience-building in the Canadian entrepreneurial ecosystem: Using disaster, emergency management and social work to understand entrepreneurs' experiences 加拿大创业生态系统中的逆境和韧性建设：用灾难、应急管理和社会工作来理解企业家的经历

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100461

Lea Tufford , Kyle Breen , Jenna Hepburn , Haorui Wu

Entrepreneurs—especially early entrepreneurs—face numerous challenges throughout their entrepreneurial journey. These challenges and adversities can create distinct personal and professional strains resulting in poor physical, mental, and emotional health. Thus, entrepreneurs must exercise resilience-building to properly prepare for, respond to, and recover from potential adversities. We frame adversities as “environmental shocks” to the entrepreneurial ecosystem using a disaster and emergency management and social work conceptual lens. Entrepreneurs subjected to these shocks then adopt resilience-building strategies as protective factors against future shocks, affording them the ability to bounce back or “bounce forward.” Using semi-structured interviews, we examined the types of adversities and resilience-building strategies employed by 27 Canadian entrepreneurs. Results indicated two forms of adversity and resilience-building—personal and professional— and the interplay within and between them. Personal and professional resilience included seeking therapy and financial preparedness while personal and professional adversity included isolation and problematic co‑leader relationships. Findings from the study call for entrepreneurial-specific social service and training programs which address the manifestations of adversity and offer practical strategies to enhance resilience. This research highlights a unique view of entrepreneurial adversity and resilience and offers a foundation for future research on Canadian entrepreneurial contexts.

企业家——尤其是早期的企业家——在他们的创业之旅中面临着无数的挑战。这些挑战和逆境会造成明显的个人和职业压力，导致身体、精神和情绪健康状况不佳。因此，企业家必须锻炼韧性建设，以适当地准备、应对和从潜在的逆境中恢复过来。我们使用灾难和应急管理以及社会工作概念镜头，将逆境定义为对创业生态系统的“环境冲击”。遭受这些冲击的企业家随后采取弹性建设战略，作为抵御未来冲击的保护因素，使他们有能力反弹或“向前反弹”。采用半结构化访谈，我们考察了27位加拿大企业家所采用的逆境类型和弹性建设策略。结果表明，逆境和弹性建设有两种形式——个人的和职业的——以及它们内部和之间的相互作用。个人和职业适应力包括寻求治疗和财务准备，而个人和职业逆境包括孤立和有问题的共同领导关系。研究结果呼吁针对企业家的社会服务和培训计划，解决逆境的表现，并提供切实可行的策略来增强韧性。本研究突出了创业逆境和弹性的独特视角，为未来对加拿大创业环境的研究奠定了基础。

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引用次数: 0

Integrating multi-criteria decision analysis and geospatial data for flood susceptibility mapping in Texas, USA 基于多准则决策分析和地理空间数据的美国德克萨斯州洪水易感性制图

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100462

Birhan Getachew Tikuye , Ram Lakhan Ray , Nimal Shantha Abeysingha , Sanjita Gurau

Floods are among the most frequent and destructive natural hazards triggered by snowmelt, intense and prolonged precipitation. This study aimed to delineate flood-prone areas across Texas, USA, by integrating geospatial data with a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed within this framework to evaluate systematically and weight key flood conditioning factors. The factor weights in the AHP were established based on insights from expert evaluations, literature, and feedback from relevant public institutions. Flood susceptibility mapping effectiveness was assessed through the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, focusing on the Area under the Curve (AUC) metric. A multi-criteria weighted overlay method was used to combine various geospatial layers. The flood susceptibility map was validated using historical storm event data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), covering the period from 1985 to the present. The final susceptibility map achieved a high AUC score of 0.90, reflecting a robust agreement between the model's predictions and real-world flood events. The most flood-vulnerable basins include the Sulphur, Cypress, Trinity, Neches-Trinity, Sabine, Guadalupe, and Neches basins, which stand out as the most at-risk areas identified in the analysis. The spatial analysis of the flood susceptibility map revealed that approximately 62 % of the study area falls under high flood risk. Thus, priority should be given to implementing targeted flood management and mitigation strategies in the high-risk river basins.

洪水是由融雪、强降水和长时间降水引发的最频繁和最具破坏性的自然灾害之一。本研究旨在通过将地理空间数据与多标准决策分析（MCDA）方法相结合，划定美国德克萨斯州的洪水易发地区。在此框架下，采用层次分析法（AHP）对洪水调节因子进行系统评价和加权。AHP中的因子权重是根据专家评价、文献和相关公共机构的反馈建立的。通过受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线评估洪水敏感性制图的有效性，重点关注曲线下面积（AUC）指标。采用多准则加权叠加法对不同地理空间层进行组合。利用美国国家环境信息中心（NCEI） 1985年至今的历史风暴事件数据对洪水敏感性图进行了验证。最终的敏感性图获得了0.90的高AUC得分，反映了模型预测与现实世界洪水事件之间的强大一致性。最易受洪水影响的盆地包括Sulphur、Cypress、Trinity、Neches-Trinity、Sabine、Guadalupe和Neches盆地，这些盆地在分析中被认为是风险最大的地区。洪水易感度空间分析表明，研究区约62%的区域处于高洪水风险区。因此，应优先考虑在高风险流域实施有针对性的洪水管理和减灾战略。

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引用次数: 0

Use caution with the word ‘shelter’ in lightning safety 在雷电安全中小心使用“避雷处”这个词

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100460

Daile Zhang , Mary Ann Cooper , Ronald L. Holle , Mitchell Guthrie

In some countries, lightning causes more deaths than other weather events more commonly thought of as disasters, so there is a need for safe refuges during thunderstorms. Lightning also occurs with volcanoes, hurricanes, tornadoes and other disasters so that disaster refuges in most areas should have lightning protection systems designed consistent with international standards. Of special concern is that the term ‘shelter’ in the U.S. and some other English-speaking countries is associated with many small structures that are nearly always unsafe from lightning. Factors that contribute to lightning risk are listed, as well as the importance of recognizing the mechanisms of lightning injury. Photographic examples are included of structures that are unsafe from lightning in several countries. How to make such structures safe from lightning is described as well as a brief overview of lightning injury prevention.

在一些国家，闪电造成的死亡人数比其他通常被认为是灾难的天气事件还要多，因此在雷暴期间需要安全的避难所。火山、飓风、龙卷风等灾害也会发生闪电，因此大多数地区的灾害避难所都应该有符合国际标准的防雷系统。特别值得关注的是，在美国和其他一些英语国家，“避难所”一词与许多小型建筑物联系在一起，这些建筑物几乎总是不安全的。列出了导致雷击危险的因素，以及认识雷击伤害机制的重要性。其中包括一些国家不安全的建筑物的照片例子。如何使这样的结构安全的雷电是描述以及雷电伤害预防的简要概述。

引用次数: 0

Risk identification and prevention of multi-level flood and typhoon prevention emergency drills 多层次防汛防台应急演练风险识别与防范

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100458

Feifeng Cao , Changhui Chen , Conglin Zhang , Jianwu Xing

Amid increasing extreme weather events driven by global climate change, pre-emptive emergency drills are vital for strengthening disaster resilience. This paper focuses on risk identification and prevention in multi-level flood and typhoon prevention emergency drills, aiming to achieve effective risk management across administrative levels. Through literature review and expert consultation, 24 risk factors were hierarchically identified. A quantitative risk assessment model was developed by integrating the risk matrix and cloud model eigenvalues. The results show that risks are the most serious at municipal-level drills, with 20 risk factors (79.17 % of the total) at Level-III and above, decreasing at lower administrative levels (where risk level are categorized into Level-I (Major), Level-II (Large), Level-III (General), and Level-IV (Low) based on the risk matrix integrating likelihood and consequence levels, and Level-III and above risks may trigger resource wastage, drill failure, or even personnel casualties). Temporally, 39 risk factors at Level-III and above were concentrated in preparation stages across all administrative levels, declining to 3 such risk factors during rectification stage. Spatially, the number of risk factors peaked during the municipal-level and county-level preparation stages (11 risk factors respectively at Level-III and above), with their quantity gradually decreasing as the administrative level decreases and drill stages advance. Based on these findings, a systematic risk prevention matrix is proposed to offer targeted guidance for multi-level flood and typhoon prevention emergency drills in addressing climate change-induced disaster challenges.

在全球气候变化导致的极端天气事件日益增多的情况下，先发制人的应急演习对于增强抗灾能力至关重要。本文重点研究了多层次防汛防台应急演练中的风险识别与防范问题，旨在实现跨行政层面的有效风险管理。通过文献回顾和专家咨询，对24个危险因素进行了分级识别。将风险矩阵与云模型特征值相结合，建立了定量的风险评估模型。结果表明，市级以上演习风险最严重，三级及以上有20个风险因素（占总风险因素的79.17%），较低的行政级别（根据可能性和后果等级的风险矩阵，风险等级分为一级（重大）、二级（大）、三级（一般）和四级（低），三级及以上的风险可能导致资源浪费、演习失败甚至人员伤亡）风险降低。从时间上看，各级行政区划三级及以上危险因素在准备阶段集中在39个，在整改阶段集中在3个。从空间上看，风险因子数量在市级和县级准备阶段达到峰值（3级及以上风险因子分别为11个），随着行政级别的降低和演练阶段的推进，风险因子数量逐渐减少。在此基础上，提出了系统的风险防范矩阵，为应对气候变化引发的灾害挑战的多层次防汛防台应急演练提供有针对性的指导。

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引用次数: 0