Progress in Disaster Science最新文献_第7页

Estimating flash flood surface flow velocity in heritage city using citizen-recorded videos 利用市民录像估算遗产城市山洪地表流速

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100474

Muhammad Asif , Silvano Fortunato Dal Sasso , Teodosio Lacava , Raffaele Albano

Urban flash floods pose significant threats to public safety, infrastructure, and urban resilience. Accurate and rapid assessment of flood flow velocities is essential for effective hazard monitoring and response. However, public awareness of flood risks often remains low, especially regarding the rapid impact of shallow waters on human safety. To address this challenge, this study leverages citizen-recorded videos to estimate flood flow velocities, supporting improved hazard assessment.

Focusing on Matera, a UNESCO World Heritage city in southern Italy (Basilicata Region), known for its steep topography and historic “Sassi” districts, the study analyzes five recent flood events (August 24, 2018; November 12, 2019; June 2, 2023; July 2, 2024; and July 21, 2024) using eight citizen-sourced videos, primarily from social media platforms. These videos captured the surface flow along Via Buozzi, a key historic drainage path in the downtown area.

Flow velocities were estimated using Fudaa-LSPIV, an image-based particle image velocimetry method adapted for video analysis. The accuracy of these estimates was validated against measurements obtained with SSIMS-Flow, an optical flow software tool, as well as benchmark data derived from floating debris, such as leaves and trash, visually detectable in the videos. The comparison revealed a strong correlation and close agreement between all methods.

Results demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed approach for estimating surface velocities during urban flash floods. The accompanying datasets, included both in the manuscript and in the supplementary material, offer valuable resources for calibration, validation hydrodynamic modelling and, ultimately, advancing flood risk assessment and management in urban contexts such as heritage city.

城市山洪暴发对公共安全、基础设施和城市韧性构成重大威胁。准确和快速的洪水流速评估对于有效的灾害监测和响应至关重要。然而，公众对洪水风险的认识往往仍然很低，特别是关于浅水对人类安全的迅速影响。为了应对这一挑战，本研究利用公民录制的视频来估计洪水流速，以支持改进的灾害评估。该研究以意大利南部（巴西利卡塔地区）的联合国教科文组织世界遗产城市马泰拉（Matera）为重点，该城市以其陡峭的地形和历史悠久的“萨西”地区而闻名，研究使用八个公民来源的视频（主要来自社交媒体平台）分析了最近的五次洪水事件（2018年8月24日；2019年11月12日；2023年6月2日；2024年7月2日和2024年7月21日）。这些视频捕捉了市中心重要的历史排水路径——Via浮标的地表水流。采用一种适用于视频分析的基于图像的粒子图像测速方法Fudaa-LSPIV进行流速估计。这些估计的准确性通过使用SSIMS-Flow（一种光流软件工具）获得的测量数据以及从漂浮碎片（如树叶和垃圾）获得的基准数据进行了验证，这些数据在视频中可以直观地检测到。结果表明，各方法之间具有很强的相关性和一致性。结果表明，该方法对城市山洪暴发期间地表速度的估计是有效和可靠的。随附的数据集，包括在手稿和补充材料中，为校准，验证水动力建模，并最终推进城市环境（如遗产城市）的洪水风险评估和管理提供了宝贵的资源。

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引用次数: 0

Dual-constrained healthcare emergency facility location model under flood scenarios: A case study in the Maozhou River basin, Shenzhen, China 洪水情景下的双约束医疗急救设施选址模型——以深圳茅州河流域为例

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100473

Yongqiang Liu , Guang Yang , Dongzhou Li , Yanlong Guan , Xinshuang Song , Guoqing Liu , Ziwu Fan

Extreme rainfall-induced flooding significantly impacts healthcare emergency services. Current research on optimizing the deployment of healthcare emergency facilities under flooding scenarios remains limited, particularly in terms of considering both the population coverage and spatial coverage. Based on the simulation of urban flooding, this study proposes a dual-constrained emergency facility location optimization model that balances both the newly added service population and newly service scope, and its effectiveness is validated in the Maozhou River Basin in Shenzhen. The results indicate that urban flooding in the study area is caused by insufficient drainage capacity and low-lying topography, with the former being the dominant contributing factor. Additionally, rainfall events exceeding a 78 mm/h(10-year threshold) alter the shortest access routes to healthcare emergency services for over 50 % of the population.Compared with the decrease in traffic speed, impassable roads due to flooding exert a greater effect on healthcare emergency services. Lastly, optimization outcomes under three flooding scenarios demonstrate the applicability of our model, accurately determining the location of high priority healthcare emergency facilities. Non-inundated populations now achieve assured 15-min healthcare emergency response. This study provides a scientific foundation for urban emergency departments to plan resource allocation, reducing risks from healthcare delays in non-inundated areas.

极端降雨引发的洪水严重影响医疗急救服务。目前关于优化洪水情景下医疗应急设施部署的研究仍然有限，特别是在考虑人口覆盖率和空间覆盖率方面。在城市洪涝模拟的基础上，提出了一种兼顾新增服务人群和新增服务范围的双约束应急设施选址优化模型，并在深圳茂洲河流域进行了有效性验证。结果表明：研究区城市洪涝是由排水能力不足和地势低洼造成的，其中排水能力不足是主要的影响因素；此外，超过78毫米/小时（10年阈值）的降雨事件改变了50%以上人口获得医疗急救服务的最短途径。与交通速度下降相比，水浸导致道路不通对医疗急救服务的影响更大。最后，在三种洪水情景下的优化结果证明了我们模型的适用性，准确地确定了高优先级医疗急救设施的位置。未被淹没的人口现在可以保证15分钟的医疗应急响应。该研究为城市急诊科规划资源配置提供了科学依据，降低了非淹没地区医疗延误的风险。

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引用次数: 0

Community insights on tourism development and nature-based solutions for increased resilience to coastal hazards at Caota sand dunes Geopark in Taiwan 台湾曹塔沙丘地质公园旅游业发展的社区见解和基于自然的解决方案，以提高对海岸灾害的抵御能力

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100472

Viola Marcia van Onselen , Mucahid Mustafa Bayrak , Sierra Gladfelter , Tsung-Yi Lin

Geoparks have the ability to function as complex social-ecological systems, where the interactions between natural landscapes and local communities shape climate change adaptation and mitigation outcomes. This study evaluates how community-driven tourism initiatives at Caota Geopark, Taiwan, contribute to climate resilience by enabling public education and engagement with nature conservation. Using a social-ecological systems lens, this study explores how the interplay between community participation and coastal ecosystem processes supports Nature-based Solutions (NbS) in addressing locally identified climate risks. This is achieved through a combination of contextual analysis and qualitative methods, including focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews with local stakeholders. Thematic analysis revealed that environmental education and awareness-building have strengthened local commitment to environmental stewardship. Moreover, enhancing the buffering capacity of the coastal dunes and maintaining associated ecosystem services were identified as key strategies for mitigating local hazards. However, ongoing challenges such as waste accumulation, inadequate infrastructure, and human disturbances, undermine ecosystem functions and visitor experiences, revealing critical vulnerabilities within the social-ecological system. Additionally, the study found a gap in inclusive, bottom-up governance structures that could help integrate community needs into geopark planning. Building on these insights, the study proposes a framework for sustainable tourism management and locally grounded climate adaptation strategies that stimulate active community participation. It also offers policy recommendations to support more integrated, adaptive, and community-responsive geopark governance.

地质公园有能力作为复杂的社会生态系统发挥作用，其中自然景观与当地社区之间的相互作用决定了适应和减缓气候变化的结果。本研究评估了台湾高塔地质公园社区驱动的旅游项目如何通过促进公众教育和参与自然保护来促进气候适应能力。本研究利用社会生态系统的视角，探讨了社区参与与沿海生态系统过程之间的相互作用如何支持基于自然的解决方案（NbS）解决当地确定的气候风险。这是通过上下文分析和定性方法的结合来实现的，包括焦点小组讨论和与当地利益相关者的半结构化访谈。专题分析显示，环境教育和提高认识加强了当地对环境管理的承诺。此外，提高海岸沙丘的缓冲能力和维持相关的生态系统服务是减轻地方灾害的关键策略。然而，诸如垃圾堆积、基础设施不足和人为干扰等持续存在的挑战破坏了生态系统功能和游客体验，暴露了社会生态系统中的关键脆弱性。此外，该研究还发现，在包容性、自下而上的治理结构方面存在差距，这些结构有助于将社区需求纳入地质公园规划。在这些见解的基础上，该研究提出了可持续旅游管理框架和基于当地的气候适应战略，以促进社区积极参与。它还提供了政策建议，以支持更综合、适应性和社区响应的地质公园治理。

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引用次数: 0

Improving an estimation model for dam failure-induced loss of life and customizing it for North America 改进大坝溃坝导致的生命损失估算模型，并为北美定制

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100471

Samuel Ovu, Mauricio Dziedzic

The potential loss of life (LOL) resulting from dam failures represents a critical concern in dam safety and disaster management. Accurate estimation of LOL is paramount for informed decision-making, emergency preparedness, and the minimization of human casualties in such events. This paper proposes an improved model for LOL estimation associated with dam failures and shows how to customize it to specific regions, exemplifying with North America. The approach categorizes dam failure into subcases based on flood severity and the distance from the dam. Two empirical equations that serve as the calculation method for LOL formulated through multivariate regression analysis are derived using thirty-two dam failure subcases in North America. The datasets were split into train and test sets, yielding R² values of 0.9949 for low severity cases and 0.9955 for medium-high severity cases on the test sets. Graham's model was selected as a comparison benchmark due to its straightforward application, established use in LOL estimation, and minimal data requirements. The successful implementation of this model suggests its potential applicability for diverse regions, contributing to improved disaster preparedness and response strategies, as well as enhancing dam safety and community well-being downstream of dams.

大坝溃坝造成的潜在生命损失是大坝安全和灾害管理中的一个重要问题。准确估计LOL对于知情决策、应急准备和在此类事件中尽量减少人员伤亡至关重要。本文提出了一个与大坝溃坝相关的LOL估算改进模型，并展示了如何将其定制到特定地区，以北美为例。该方法根据洪水的严重程度和与大坝的距离将大坝溃坝分类为子案例。以北美32个溃坝子例为例，通过多元回归分析，导出了两个作为LOL计算方法的经验方程。将数据集分为训练集和测试集，在测试集上，低严重情况的R2值为0.9949，中高严重情况的R2值为0.9955。选择Graham的模型作为比较基准，因为其应用简单，在LOL估计中已建立使用，并且数据需求最小。该模型的成功实施表明，它可能适用于不同地区，有助于改善灾害准备和响应策略，并提高大坝安全和大坝下游社区的福祉。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluation of spatiotemporal effects of soil depth on shallow landslides and debris flows via coupled numerical analysis 耦合数值分析评价土壤深度对浅层滑坡和泥石流的时空影响

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100470

Seungjun Lee , Taeun Kang , Minseok Kim , Heemin Ko , Hyunuk An

Soil depth critically influences the timing and magnitude of shallow landslides and subsequent debris flows, yet its spatiotemporal effects remain insufficiently understood. This study investigates these effects through landslides–debris flows coupled numerical analysis, employing three soil depth configurations: the slope-based S model, the elevation-based Z model, and the U model, which assumes uniform soil depth across the study area. The 2011 Mt. Umyeon landslides in South Korea, a well-documented event with extensive field survey data, were simulated to validate the simulation results. Model performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic method. Results show that increasing soil depth enlarges the scale of landslides and debris flows while delaying their onset. However, when soil depth greatly exceeds rainfall intensity and cumulative rainfall, slope failure susceptibility decreases, emphasizing the spatiotemporal control of soil thickness. In debris flow simulations, soil depth strongly influenced erosion and entrainment processes, substantially affecting downstream residential damage estimates. Furthermore, our results indicate that when soil depth data are unavailable, the slope-based S model provides more spatiotemporally stable predictions of landslide and debris flow behavior. This study highlights the importance of soil depth in geohazard modeling and advances understanding of rainfall-induced landslide–debris flow hazards in ungauged mountainous regions.

土壤深度对浅层滑坡和随后的泥石流的发生时间和规模具有重要影响，但其时空效应仍未得到充分认识。本研究通过滑坡-泥石流耦合数值分析研究了这些影响，采用了三种土壤深度配置：基于坡度的S模型、基于高程的Z模型和假设整个研究区域土壤深度均匀的U模型。2011年的韩国雨眠山山体滑坡是一个有充分记录的事件，有大量的实地调查数据，为了验证模拟结果，进行了模拟。采用接收机工作特性法对模型性能进行评价。结果表明：随着土层深度的增加，滑坡和泥石流发生的规模增大，发生时间推迟；然而，当土壤深度大大超过降雨强度和累积降雨量时，边坡破坏敏感性降低，强调了土壤厚度的时空控制。在泥石流模拟中，土壤深度强烈影响侵蚀和夹带过程，极大地影响下游居民损失的估计。此外，我们的研究结果表明，当土壤深度数据不可用时，基于边坡的S模型提供了更多的时空稳定的滑坡和泥石流行为预测。这项研究强调了土壤深度在地质灾害建模中的重要性，并促进了对未测量山区降雨引起的滑坡-泥石流灾害的理解。

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引用次数: 0

From relief shelters to self-organized communities: Building disaster resilience in coastal Bangladesh 从救济避难所到自组织社区：孟加拉国沿海地区的抗灾能力建设

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100469

Saimum Kabir , Fatema Meher Khan , Diptenu Saha

In disaster studies, crucial gaps remain in understanding how micro-level sheltering strategies influence long-term resilience. This study empirically examines the various risk reduction measures, including sheltering strategies implemented by GOs and NGOs, as well as local communities, over the past fifteen years. It examines how these interventions have transformed the landscape and spatial order of coastal settlements while assessing their role in reducing disaster risks. Focusing on a cyclone and salinity-prone coastal village in Bangladesh, the study employs a longitudinal analysis (2010 and 2025) of social and spatial aspects, revealing an evolving nature of coastal settlements, driven by both internal and external interventions that catalyze morphological change. Fieldwork reveals that the self-help approach enables local communities to incrementally reorganize their homesteads, thereby strengthening their disaster resilience. The study identifies self-organization as a dynamic process through which coastal communities recalibrate their socio-spatial patterns and settlement morphology in response to varying disaster risks and socio-economic opportunities. The dynamic interplay between community self-organization and long-term resilience offers key insights for sustainable adaptation to growing environmental challenges. This study thus contributes to the broader discourse on resilient shelter planning and adaptive strategies for coastal regions in an era of climate uncertainty.

在灾害研究中，在理解微观层面的庇护策略如何影响长期恢复力方面仍然存在重大差距。本研究从实证角度考察了过去15年来政府和非政府组织以及当地社区实施的各种降低风险措施，包括庇护战略。它考察了这些干预措施如何改变了沿海定居点的景观和空间秩序，同时评估了它们在减少灾害风险方面的作用。本研究以孟加拉国一个易受飓风和盐碱化影响的沿海村庄为研究对象，对社会和空间方面进行了纵向分析（2010年和2025年），揭示了沿海定居点在内部和外部干预的推动下不断演变的性质，这些干预促进了形态变化。实地调查表明，自助方法使当地社区能够逐步重组其家园，从而增强其抗灾能力。该研究将自组织确定为一个动态过程，沿海社区通过该过程重新调整其社会空间模式和定居形态，以应对不同的灾害风险和社会经济机会。社区自组织和长期恢复力之间的动态相互作用为可持续适应日益增长的环境挑战提供了关键见解。因此，这项研究有助于在气候不确定的时代对沿海地区的弹性住房规划和适应策略进行更广泛的讨论。

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引用次数: 0

Application of geospatial and ICT technologies for landslide disaster risk reduction in Rwanda 在卢旺达应用地理空间和信息通信技术减少滑坡灾害风险

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100466

Willy Blaise Ineza , Emelyne Clarisse Izere , Roland Sonnenschein , Collins B. Kukunda , Fred Tumwebaze , Richard Shumbusho , Khamarrul Azahari Razak

This study provides a new insight into landslide advancement based on the state-of-art mapping technology, time-series imagery, and disaster informatics in Rwanda, where 40 % of its lands susceptible to landslides. This is the first nationally supported and locally evidenced use-case of the iMaster/DocuCam, a scalable system for landslide monitoring and detection in the African continent, originally developed for advanced industrial automation. The system continuously collects high-resolution images and weather data to monitor landslides and alert relevant authorities. We used “Quadtree” Computer Vision algorithms to automatically detect landslides by pre-processing images and measuring brownish pixels. Using statistical modelling, comparison with previous images is made and deviation in the number of brown pixels is determined. If deviation exceeds the threshold, a landslide is detected, and a warning is sent out. The results are also stored in the Open-Source SQL database and accessible via web-based Graphical User Interface. We also explored user requirements, needs and demands of stakeholders at national and local level for developing the people-centered early warning system in Rwanda, as promoted by the Sendai Framework. This study manifests the commitments of the Rwandan government to accelerate the localized disaster risk reduction action for societal resilience in the tropics.

本研究基于卢旺达最先进的测绘技术、时间序列图像和灾害信息，为滑坡进展提供了新的见解，卢旺达40%的土地易受滑坡影响。iMaster/DocuCam是一种可扩展的系统，用于非洲大陆的滑坡监测和探测，最初是为先进的工业自动化而开发的，这是iMaster/DocuCam的第一个国家支持和当地证明的用例。该系统不断收集高分辨率图像和天气数据，以监测山体滑坡并向有关当局发出警报。我们使用“四叉树”计算机视觉算法通过预处理图像和测量棕色像素来自动检测滑坡。利用统计模型，与之前的图像进行比较，并确定棕色像素数量的偏差。如果偏差超过阈值，则检测到滑坡，并发出警告。结果也存储在开源SQL数据库中，并可通过基于web的图形用户界面访问。我们还探讨了在仙台框架的推动下，在卢旺达发展以人为本的预警系统时，国家和地方各级利益攸关方的用户要求、需求和要求。这项研究表明卢旺达政府致力于加快局部减少灾害风险的行动，以提高热带地区的社会复原力。

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引用次数: 0

Identification of social media approach for strengthening the generation Z disaster capacity on drought issues 确定社会媒体方法以加强Z世代应对干旱问题的能力

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100467

Puspita Indra Wardhani , Siti Azizah Susilawati , Yunus Aris Wibowo , Ratih Puspita Dewi , Wahyu Widiyatmoko , Siti Hadiyati Nur Hafida , Edwin Maulana , Sri Utami , Isna Hayatun

Drought is a significant global issue for ecosystems and the environment, particularly in karst regions. This study aimed to investigate the tendency of Generation Z (Gen Z) to utilize social media in addressing drought in tropical regions. Data collection was conducted through structured interviews with at least 60 respondents belonging to the Gen Z group. An exploratory-descriptive approach was employed to analyze the trends in social media use among Gen Z and their perceptions of the drought issue. Furthermore, a strategy was devised to increase Gen Z's awareness of drought through social media using the causal loop diagram (CLD) approach. The study results showed that Gen Z uses TikTok (46.5 %) and Instagram (20.6 %) more frequently on social media. Gen Z's response to the drought issue on social media tends to involve complaining (25 %) and expressing concerns (18 %). Gen Z believes that actions that can be taken to overcome drought include constructing new wells, implementing water management strategies, reservoir construction, and other conservation efforts. Future drought campaigns targeting youth can use the study's findings as evaluation material.

干旱对生态系统和环境来说是一个重大的全球性问题，特别是在喀斯特地区。本研究旨在调查Z世代（Gen Z）利用社交媒体应对热带地区干旱的趋势。数据收集是通过对至少60名Z世代受访者的结构化访谈进行的。采用探索性描述性方法来分析Z世代使用社交媒体的趋势以及他们对干旱问题的看法。此外，设计了一项策略，通过使用因果循环图（CLD）方法，通过社交媒体提高Z世代对干旱的认识。研究结果显示，Z世代在社交媒体上使用抖音（46.5%）和Instagram（20.6%）的频率更高。Z世代在社交媒体上对干旱问题的回应往往包括抱怨（25%）和表达担忧（18%）。Z世代认为，可以采取的措施包括建造新井、实施水管理策略、建造水库和其他保护措施。未来针对年轻人的抗旱运动可以使用这项研究的发现作为评估材料。

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引用次数: 0

Health issues treated by emergency medical teams following natural disasters in Japan and their relation to the disaster 日本自然灾害后紧急医疗队处理的健康问题及其与灾害的关系

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100468

Ami Fukunaga , Fu Tarui , Takahito Yoshida , Inn Kynn Khaing , Odgerel Chimed-Ochir , Yui Yumiya , Akihiro Taji , Kouki Akahoshi , Yoshiki Toyokuni , Kayako Chishima , Seiji Mimura , Akinori Wakai , Hisayoshi Kondo , Yuichi Koido , Tatsuhiko Kubo

This study examined health issues recorded by Emergency Medical Teams during four large-scale disasters in Japan (2019–2021) and their relation to the disaster. Logistic regression analyses were conducted on data from the Japan Surveillance in Post-Extreme Emergencies and Disasters system to examine associations between specific health issues and their relation to the disaster. Of the 822 health consultations recorded, 17.5 %, 51.3 %, and 31.1 % reported health issues directly related, indirectly related, and unrelated to the disaster, respectively. Minor injury (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 4.65, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 2.75–7.86), wound (AOR = 5.64, 95 % CI = 3.31–9.60), and moderate injury (AOR = 35.97, 95 % CI = 5.47–236.63) were significantly associated with a direct relation to the disaster. Hypertension (AOR = 1.69, 95 % CI = 1.05–2.71), disaster-related stress symptoms (AOR = 2.32, 95 % CI = 1.37–3.90), and treatment interruption (AOR = 2.05, 95 % CI = 1.07–3.91) were significantly associated with an indirect relation to the disaster. Fever (AOR = 2.89, 95 % CI = 1.45–5.39) and skin disease (AOR = 2.43, 95 % CI = 1.34–4.42) were significantly associated with a non-relation to the disaster. These findings highlight the multifaceted nature of health issues following disasters, emphasizing the need for response strategies that address not only direct health effects, but also indirectly related and non-disaster-related health issues.

本研究调查了紧急医疗队在日本（2019-2021年）四次大规模灾害期间记录的健康问题及其与灾害的关系。对来自日本极端紧急情况和灾害后监测系统的数据进行了逻辑回归分析，以检查特定健康问题与其与灾害的关系之间的关联。在记录在案的822次健康咨询中，分别有17.5%、51.3%和31.1%报告了与灾难直接相关、间接相关和无关的健康问题。轻微损伤（调整优势比[AOR] = 4.65, 95%可信区间[CI] = 2.75 ~ 7.86）、伤口（AOR = 5.64, 95% CI = 3.31 ~ 9.60）和中度损伤（AOR = 35.97, 95% CI = 5.47 ~ 236.63）与灾害直接相关。高血压（AOR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.05-2.71）、灾难相关应激症状（AOR = 2.32, 95% CI = 1.37-3.90）和治疗中断（AOR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.07-3.91）与灾难的间接关系显著相关。发热（AOR = 2.89, 95% CI = 1.45-5.39）和皮肤病（AOR = 2.43, 95% CI = 1.34-4.42）与灾难无关。这些调查结果突出了灾后健康问题的多面性，强调需要制定应对战略，不仅处理直接健康影响，而且处理间接相关和与灾害无关的健康问题。

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引用次数: 0

Association of community resilience and residents' consumption intentions: A study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China 社区弹性与居民消费意愿的关系——基于京津冀地区的研究

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100465

Bo Shen , Lishuo Guo , Shuai Cui , Yi Peng

Shocks from natural disasters and emergencies broadly affect residents' perceptions of uncertainty, dampening their consumption intentions. Yet, few studies have examined the relationship between community resilience and residents' consumption intentions. This study explored the roles of physical spatial resilience and social capital resilience in influencing residents' consumption intentions with survey data from residents in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China. The results generated from structural equation modeling indicate that both social capital resilience and physical space resilience significantly influence residents' consumption intentions, with social capital resilience having a stronger indirect effect and physical spatial resilience exhibiting a more pronounced direct effect. These findings highlight the value of resilient community development in mitigating uncertainty and fostering consumption.

自然灾害和突发事件的冲击广泛影响了居民对不确定性的认知，抑制了他们的消费意愿。然而，很少有研究考察社区弹性与居民消费意愿之间的关系。本研究以京津冀地区居民为研究对象，探讨物理空间弹性和社会资本弹性对居民消费意愿的影响。结构方程模型结果表明，社会资本弹性和物理空间弹性对居民消费意愿均有显著影响，其中社会资本弹性的间接影响更强，物理空间弹性的直接影响更明显。这些发现突出了弹性社区发展在减轻不确定性和促进消费方面的价值。

引用次数: 0