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Association of community resilience and residents' consumption intentions: A study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China 社区弹性与居民消费意愿的关系——基于京津冀地区的研究
IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100465
Bo Shen , Lishuo Guo , Shuai Cui , Yi Peng
Shocks from natural disasters and emergencies broadly affect residents' perceptions of uncertainty, dampening their consumption intentions. Yet, few studies have examined the relationship between community resilience and residents' consumption intentions. This study explored the roles of physical spatial resilience and social capital resilience in influencing residents' consumption intentions with survey data from residents in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China. The results generated from structural equation modeling indicate that both social capital resilience and physical space resilience significantly influence residents' consumption intentions, with social capital resilience having a stronger indirect effect and physical spatial resilience exhibiting a more pronounced direct effect. These findings highlight the value of resilient community development in mitigating uncertainty and fostering consumption.
自然灾害和突发事件的冲击广泛影响了居民对不确定性的认知,抑制了他们的消费意愿。然而,很少有研究考察社区弹性与居民消费意愿之间的关系。本研究以京津冀地区居民为研究对象,探讨物理空间弹性和社会资本弹性对居民消费意愿的影响。结构方程模型结果表明,社会资本弹性和物理空间弹性对居民消费意愿均有显著影响,其中社会资本弹性的间接影响更强,物理空间弹性的直接影响更明显。这些发现突出了弹性社区发展在减轻不确定性和促进消费方面的价值。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating customer relationship management and organizational capabilities for hospital resilience: A framework for disaster preparedness and recovery 整合客户关系管理和医院复原力的组织能力:备灾和恢复的框架
IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100488
Roghayeh soleimani , Davood Shishebori , Mohammad Saleh Owlia , Hassan Khademi Zare
Enhancing hospital resilience is essential for mitigating the impact of crises, such as pandemics, on healthcare systems. This study investigates the strategic role of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) in strengthening hospital networks' organizational resilience. A conceptual framework was developed to explore the impact of CRM components—customer knowledge management and CRM-based technology—on critical organizational capabilities such as innovation, dynamism, and flexibility. The mediating roles of risk and crisis management in fostering resilience are also examined. Using a mixed-methods approach, qualitative data from expert interviews identified resilience dimensions, while quantitative data from 169 hospital staff members were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM). The findings highlight that CRM-based strategies significantly enhance resilience by promoting organizational adaptability and effective crisis management. This study provides actionable insights for healthcare managers to implement CRM technologies, advancing disaster preparedness, response, and recovery, and contributing to the implementation of the efficient framework for disaster risk reduction.
加强医院的复原力对于减轻大流行等危机对卫生保健系统的影响至关重要。本研究旨在探讨客户关系管理(CRM)在提升医院网络组织弹性中的策略作用。开发了一个概念框架来探索CRM组件(客户知识管理和基于CRM的技术)对创新、活力和灵活性等关键组织能力的影响。风险和危机管理在促进弹性的中介作用也进行了审查。采用混合方法,来自专家访谈的定性数据确定了弹性维度,同时使用结构方程模型(SEM)分析了来自169名医院工作人员的定量数据。研究结果表明,基于客户关系管理的战略通过促进组织适应性和有效的危机管理,显著提高了弹性。本研究为医疗保健管理人员提供了可操作的见解,以实施CRM技术,推进灾难准备、响应和恢复,并有助于实施有效的减少灾害风险框架。
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引用次数: 0
Use caution with the word ‘shelter’ in lightning safety 在雷电安全中小心使用“避雷处”这个词
IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100460
Daile Zhang , Mary Ann Cooper , Ronald L. Holle , Mitchell Guthrie
In some countries, lightning causes more deaths than other weather events more commonly thought of as disasters, so there is a need for safe refuges during thunderstorms. Lightning also occurs with volcanoes, hurricanes, tornadoes and other disasters so that disaster refuges in most areas should have lightning protection systems designed consistent with international standards. Of special concern is that the term ‘shelter’ in the U.S. and some other English-speaking countries is associated with many small structures that are nearly always unsafe from lightning. Factors that contribute to lightning risk are listed, as well as the importance of recognizing the mechanisms of lightning injury. Photographic examples are included of structures that are unsafe from lightning in several countries. How to make such structures safe from lightning is described as well as a brief overview of lightning injury prevention.
在一些国家,闪电造成的死亡人数比其他通常被认为是灾难的天气事件还要多,因此在雷暴期间需要安全的避难所。火山、飓风、龙卷风等灾害也会发生闪电,因此大多数地区的灾害避难所都应该有符合国际标准的防雷系统。特别值得关注的是,在美国和其他一些英语国家,“避难所”一词与许多小型建筑物联系在一起,这些建筑物几乎总是不安全的。列出了导致雷击危险的因素,以及认识雷击伤害机制的重要性。其中包括一些国家不安全的建筑物的照片例子。如何使这样的结构安全的雷电是描述以及雷电伤害预防的简要概述。
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引用次数: 0
Crisis communication and media influence during Nokia water contamination event 诺基亚水污染事件中的危机传播和媒体影响
IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100487
Vishal Kumar , Frank Hopfgartner , Pekka M. Rossi , Mourad Oussalah
This study analyzes public narratives, stakeholder communication, and media framing during the Nokia water contamination crisis (2007–2008), Finland’s largest waterborne epidemic. Especially, using data from online forum (Suomi24), news reports, and official audits, we apply a new aspect-based sentiment analysis combined with thematic clustering over a 3-month crisis timeline period to trace the evolution of public perception in response to crisis events and stakeholder actions. The findings reveal that positive sentiment clusters were driven by visible mitigation efforts and hygiene-related practices, while negative sentiments were centered around contaminated water, institutional mistrust, and health fears. Media analysis showed minimal bias, with most coverage remaining factual, though occasional sensationalism could have amplified public anxiety. Compared to previous institutional communication research, our findings provide a data-driven perspective on citizen discourse-based analysis, offering new insights into how digital platforms can serve as real-time indicators of public trust and emotional response. The study underscores the importance of timely, transparent, and coordinated communication and highlights the potential of aspect-based sentiment analysis as a tool for adaptive crisis management and comprehending stakeholder actions.
本研究分析了芬兰最大的水传播流行病诺基亚水污染危机(2007-2008)期间的公众叙事、利益相关者沟通和媒体框架。特别是,利用在线论坛(Suomi24)、新闻报道和官方审计的数据,我们采用了一种新的基于方面的情绪分析,结合三个月的危机时间轴期间的主题聚类,来追踪公众对危机事件和利益相关者行动的看法的演变。研究结果显示,积极的情绪集群是由可见的缓解努力和与卫生有关的做法驱动的,而消极的情绪集中在受污染的水、机构不信任和健康担忧上。媒体分析显示出最小的偏见,大多数报道都是真实的,尽管偶尔的耸人听闻可能会放大公众的焦虑。与以往的机构传播研究相比,我们的研究结果为基于公民话语的分析提供了数据驱动的视角,为数字平台如何作为公众信任和情绪反应的实时指标提供了新的见解。该研究强调了及时、透明和协调沟通的重要性,并强调了基于方面的情绪分析作为适应性危机管理和理解利益相关者行动的工具的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Risk identification and prevention of multi-level flood and typhoon prevention emergency drills 多层次防汛防台应急演练风险识别与防范
IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100458
Feifeng Cao , Changhui Chen , Conglin Zhang , Jianwu Xing
Amid increasing extreme weather events driven by global climate change, pre-emptive emergency drills are vital for strengthening disaster resilience. This paper focuses on risk identification and prevention in multi-level flood and typhoon prevention emergency drills, aiming to achieve effective risk management across administrative levels. Through literature review and expert consultation, 24 risk factors were hierarchically identified. A quantitative risk assessment model was developed by integrating the risk matrix and cloud model eigenvalues. The results show that risks are the most serious at municipal-level drills, with 20 risk factors (79.17 % of the total) at Level-III and above, decreasing at lower administrative levels (where risk level are categorized into Level-I (Major), Level-II (Large), Level-III (General), and Level-IV (Low) based on the risk matrix integrating likelihood and consequence levels, and Level-III and above risks may trigger resource wastage, drill failure, or even personnel casualties). Temporally, 39 risk factors at Level-III and above were concentrated in preparation stages across all administrative levels, declining to 3 such risk factors during rectification stage. Spatially, the number of risk factors peaked during the municipal-level and county-level preparation stages (11 risk factors respectively at Level-III and above), with their quantity gradually decreasing as the administrative level decreases and drill stages advance. Based on these findings, a systematic risk prevention matrix is proposed to offer targeted guidance for multi-level flood and typhoon prevention emergency drills in addressing climate change-induced disaster challenges.
在全球气候变化导致的极端天气事件日益增多的情况下,先发制人的应急演习对于增强抗灾能力至关重要。本文重点研究了多层次防汛防台应急演练中的风险识别与防范问题,旨在实现跨行政层面的有效风险管理。通过文献回顾和专家咨询,对24个危险因素进行了分级识别。将风险矩阵与云模型特征值相结合,建立了定量的风险评估模型。结果表明,市级以上演习风险最严重,三级及以上有20个风险因素(占总风险因素的79.17%),较低的行政级别(根据可能性和后果等级的风险矩阵,风险等级分为一级(重大)、二级(大)、三级(一般)和四级(低),三级及以上的风险可能导致资源浪费、演习失败甚至人员伤亡)风险降低。从时间上看,各级行政区划三级及以上危险因素在准备阶段集中在39个,在整改阶段集中在3个。从空间上看,风险因子数量在市级和县级准备阶段达到峰值(3级及以上风险因子分别为11个),随着行政级别的降低和演练阶段的推进,风险因子数量逐渐减少。在此基础上,提出了系统的风险防范矩阵,为应对气候变化引发的灾害挑战的多层次防汛防台应急演练提供有针对性的指导。
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引用次数: 0
Integrated approach to evaluate the role of wetland for disaster risk reduction and human well-being: A case study of East Kolkata wetland 综合评价湿地在减少灾害风险和人类福祉中的作用——以东加尔各答湿地为例
IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100490
Amit Chatterjee , Shamik Chakraborty , Pankaj Kumar , Shib Sankar Bagdi , Gowhar Meraj
Urban wetlands provide vital ecosystem services such as habitat provision, water purification, flood regulation, climate regulation, food provision, and recreation. However, rapid urban expansion has placed tremendous pressure on urban wetland environments, leading to their shrinkage. East Kolkata Wetland (EKW), a Ramsar site near urban area noted for its high biological diversity. Moreover, this wetland also acts as retardation basin for managing flooding in the neighboring areas and purifies a significant portion of the wastewater received from the city of Kolkata through application of local ecological knowledge (LEK). Despite its high significance, the wetland is facing different threats in terms of encroachment, pollution etc. This study aims to assess possible future changes of the East Kolkata Wetland (EKW) through integrating spatiotemporal data with socio-legal data over the past 23 years. The study uses Shannon's entropy model together with the number of litigation cases. The results indicate that the entropy value increased from 0.394 in 1993 to 0.413 in 2023, suggesting a more dispersed distribution of development, primarily towards the east. This shift is contributing to the conversion of the East Kolkata Wetlands (EKW) into real estate developments. The study also reveals that 95 % of litigation cases in the EKW are related to unauthorized construction and the filling of water bodies. These unsustainable developments can increase Kolkata's exposure to more severe flooding together with loss of food security and biodiversity. The research provides valuable insights for policymakers by offering spatial zones of sensitivity depending upon categories of conversion and suggest steering urban growth away from the east, which could minimize degradation of the EKW and be crucial for Kolkata's long-term sustainability.
城市湿地提供了重要的生态系统服务,如栖息地提供、水净化、洪水调节、气候调节、食物供应和娱乐。然而,快速的城市扩张给城市湿地环境带来了巨大的压力,导致其萎缩。东加尔各答湿地(EKW),靠近市区的拉姆萨尔湿地,以其高度的生物多样性而闻名。此外,该湿地还可以作为治理邻近地区洪水的滞缓盆地,并通过应用当地生态知识(LEK)净化来自加尔各答市的大部分废水。湿地具有重要意义,但也面临着不同程度的侵蚀、污染等威胁。本研究旨在通过整合过去23年的时空数据和社会法律数据,评估东加尔各答湿地(EKW)未来可能的变化。该研究使用了Shannon的熵模型和诉讼案件的数量。结果表明:1993年至2023年,该区的熵值由0.394增加到0.413,表明该区的发展分布较为分散,主要向东部发展;这种转变促使东加尔各答湿地(EKW)转变为房地产开发项目。研究亦显示,九十五%的诉讼案件与违例建筑及水体填筑有关。这些不可持续的发展可能会增加加尔各答遭受更严重洪水的风险,并导致粮食安全和生物多样性丧失。该研究为政策制定者提供了有价值的见解,根据转换类别提供了敏感的空间区域,并建议将城市增长从东部转向东部,这可以最大限度地减少EKW的退化,对加尔各答的长期可持续性至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Health issues treated by emergency medical teams following natural disasters in Japan and their relation to the disaster 日本自然灾害后紧急医疗队处理的健康问题及其与灾害的关系
IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100468
Ami Fukunaga , Fu Tarui , Takahito Yoshida , Inn Kynn Khaing , Odgerel Chimed-Ochir , Yui Yumiya , Akihiro Taji , Kouki Akahoshi , Yoshiki Toyokuni , Kayako Chishima , Seiji Mimura , Akinori Wakai , Hisayoshi Kondo , Yuichi Koido , Tatsuhiko Kubo
This study examined health issues recorded by Emergency Medical Teams during four large-scale disasters in Japan (2019–2021) and their relation to the disaster. Logistic regression analyses were conducted on data from the Japan Surveillance in Post-Extreme Emergencies and Disasters system to examine associations between specific health issues and their relation to the disaster. Of the 822 health consultations recorded, 17.5 %, 51.3 %, and 31.1 % reported health issues directly related, indirectly related, and unrelated to the disaster, respectively. Minor injury (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 4.65, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 2.75–7.86), wound (AOR = 5.64, 95 % CI = 3.31–9.60), and moderate injury (AOR = 35.97, 95 % CI = 5.47–236.63) were significantly associated with a direct relation to the disaster. Hypertension (AOR = 1.69, 95 % CI = 1.05–2.71), disaster-related stress symptoms (AOR = 2.32, 95 % CI = 1.37–3.90), and treatment interruption (AOR = 2.05, 95 % CI = 1.07–3.91) were significantly associated with an indirect relation to the disaster. Fever (AOR = 2.89, 95 % CI = 1.45–5.39) and skin disease (AOR = 2.43, 95 % CI = 1.34–4.42) were significantly associated with a non-relation to the disaster. These findings highlight the multifaceted nature of health issues following disasters, emphasizing the need for response strategies that address not only direct health effects, but also indirectly related and non-disaster-related health issues.
本研究调查了紧急医疗队在日本(2019-2021年)四次大规模灾害期间记录的健康问题及其与灾害的关系。对来自日本极端紧急情况和灾害后监测系统的数据进行了逻辑回归分析,以检查特定健康问题与其与灾害的关系之间的关联。在记录在案的822次健康咨询中,分别有17.5%、51.3%和31.1%报告了与灾难直接相关、间接相关和无关的健康问题。轻微损伤(调整优势比[AOR] = 4.65, 95%可信区间[CI] = 2.75 ~ 7.86)、伤口(AOR = 5.64, 95% CI = 3.31 ~ 9.60)和中度损伤(AOR = 35.97, 95% CI = 5.47 ~ 236.63)与灾害直接相关。高血压(AOR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.05-2.71)、灾难相关应激症状(AOR = 2.32, 95% CI = 1.37-3.90)和治疗中断(AOR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.07-3.91)与灾难的间接关系显著相关。发热(AOR = 2.89, 95% CI = 1.45-5.39)和皮肤病(AOR = 2.43, 95% CI = 1.34-4.42)与灾难无关。这些调查结果突出了灾后健康问题的多面性,强调需要制定应对战略,不仅处理直接健康影响,而且处理间接相关和与灾害无关的健康问题。
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引用次数: 0
FloodCast: A user-centered flood monitoring system to enhance user engagement 以用户为中心的洪水监测系统,提高用户参与度
IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100492
Rosemary R. Seva , Alvin Neil A. Gutierrez , Hero Rafael Arante , Alvin Chua , Maria Antonette C. Roque , Edwin Sybingco
Flooding is a major natural hazard whose frequency and severity have increased due to climate change. Although technological advances have improved flood monitoring systems, their usability remains a critical but often overlooked aspect. FloodCast is a sensor-based flood monitoring system that enables users to track real-time water levels in flood-prone areas and predict flood trends for next three hours. User requirements were gathered from individuals with firsthand experience of flooding. FloodCast's output aims to support decision-making, particularly in identifying safe routes during heavy rainfall. Data were collected through two focus group discussions with eight participants each and a survey of 76 respondents. Through iterative prototyping—informed by the user needs, an initial interface was designed. Initial testing that involved 17 participants revealed user confusion stemming from unclear visual cues and navigation, 35 % of which did not attain the benchmark score of System Usability Scale (SUS). After refining the design (e.g., simplifying data visualization, improving accessibility), the final prototype was tested with 21 participants where 100 % passed the SUS benchmark score. Users provided favorable evaluations of the redesigned interface, highlighting the clarity of the flood prediction graph, the usefulness of the reference images, and the value of the 15-min update feature.
洪水是一种主要的自然灾害,由于气候变化,其频率和严重程度都有所增加。虽然技术进步改善了洪水监测系统,但其可用性仍然是一个关键但往往被忽视的方面。FloodCast是一种基于传感器的洪水监测系统,使用户能够跟踪洪水易发地区的实时水位,并预测未来三小时的洪水趋势。用户需求是从亲身经历过洪水的个人那里收集来的。FloodCast的产出旨在支持决策,特别是在大雨期间确定安全路线。数据是通过两次焦点小组讨论收集的,每个小组有8名参与者,并对76名受访者进行调查。根据用户需求,通过迭代原型设计,设计了一个初始界面。最初的测试涉及17名参与者,结果显示,由于视觉线索和导航不清晰,用户产生了困惑,其中35%的用户没有达到系统可用性量表(SUS)的基准分数。在完善设计(例如,简化数据可视化,提高可访问性)之后,最终原型由21名参与者进行测试,其中100%通过SUS基准分数。用户对重新设计的界面给出了良好的评价,强调了洪水预测图的清晰度,参考图像的实用性,以及15分钟更新功能的价值。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating disability-inclusive disaster education in primary schools: A CASE from Yogyakarta, Indonesia 整合残障包容的小学灾害教育:以印尼日惹为例
IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100482
Nurul Hidayati Rofiah , Norimune Kawai
Students with disabilities are among the most vulnerable during disasters, yet they are often excluded from disaster risk reduction (DRR) initiatives. Early disaster education offers significant benefits for inclusive preparedness. This study examined DRR education practices in inclusive primary schools, identified effective strategies, and evaluated the impact on students with and without disabilities. A quasi-experimental design was applied in nine inclusive schools in Yogyakarta, with students assigned to control and experimental groups. Questionnaires adapted from validated instruments measured knowledge, risk perception, awareness, and readiness. Statistical analysis showed significant differences between students who received the program and those who did not. The findings indicate that disaster education enhances preparedness among students with disabilities and adds to limited evidence on inclusive DRR in low- and middle-income countries. The study demonstrates the feasibility of disaster education in inclusive settings and the importance of adapting content and methods to diverse learners. Several limitations should be noted. The study involved a relatively small sample from one province, limiting generalizability. It included only students with mild intellectual disabilities, leaving out those with sensory, motor, or more complex disabilities. In addition, it assessed short-term outcomes only, without examining medium- or long-term effects. These limitations should be considered when interpreting the results. Future research should include larger and more diverse samples, incorporate multiple disability groups, and explore alternative teaching methods such as peer tutoring, songs, and games. Ultimately, inclusive DRR will not only strengthen resilience but also ensure the personal safety of students with disabilities.
残疾学生是灾害期间最脆弱的群体之一,但他们往往被排除在减少灾害风险倡议之外。早期灾害教育为包容性备灾提供了重大益处。本研究考察了全纳小学的DRR教育实践,确定了有效的策略,并评估了对残疾学生和非残疾学生的影响。在日惹的九所包容性学校采用准实验设计,将学生分为对照组和实验组。从经过验证的工具改编的问卷测量了知识、风险感知、意识和准备程度。统计分析显示,接受该项目的学生和未接受该项目的学生之间存在显著差异。研究结果表明,灾害教育提高了残疾学生的备灾能力,并为中低收入国家包容性减灾的有限证据提供了新的证据。本研究证明了灾害教育在全纳环境下的可行性,以及调整内容和方法以适应不同学习者的重要性。应该注意到几个限制。该研究涉及一个省份的相对较小的样本,限制了普遍性。它只包括有轻度智力残疾的学生,不包括那些有感觉、运动或更复杂残疾的学生。此外,它只评估了短期结果,没有研究中期或长期影响。在解释结果时应考虑这些限制。未来的研究应该包括更大、更多样化的样本,纳入多个残疾群体,并探索其他教学方法,如同伴辅导、歌曲和游戏。最终,包容性的DRR不仅可以增强韧性,还可以确保残疾学生的人身安全。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating multi-criteria decision analysis and geospatial data for flood susceptibility mapping in Texas, USA 基于多准则决策分析和地理空间数据的美国德克萨斯州洪水易感性制图
IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100462
Birhan Getachew Tikuye , Ram Lakhan Ray , Nimal Shantha Abeysingha , Sanjita Gurau
Floods are among the most frequent and destructive natural hazards triggered by snowmelt, intense and prolonged precipitation. This study aimed to delineate flood-prone areas across Texas, USA, by integrating geospatial data with a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed within this framework to evaluate systematically and weight key flood conditioning factors. The factor weights in the AHP were established based on insights from expert evaluations, literature, and feedback from relevant public institutions. Flood susceptibility mapping effectiveness was assessed through the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, focusing on the Area under the Curve (AUC) metric. A multi-criteria weighted overlay method was used to combine various geospatial layers. The flood susceptibility map was validated using historical storm event data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), covering the period from 1985 to the present. The final susceptibility map achieved a high AUC score of 0.90, reflecting a robust agreement between the model's predictions and real-world flood events. The most flood-vulnerable basins include the Sulphur, Cypress, Trinity, Neches-Trinity, Sabine, Guadalupe, and Neches basins, which stand out as the most at-risk areas identified in the analysis. The spatial analysis of the flood susceptibility map revealed that approximately 62 % of the study area falls under high flood risk. Thus, priority should be given to implementing targeted flood management and mitigation strategies in the high-risk river basins.
洪水是由融雪、强降水和长时间降水引发的最频繁和最具破坏性的自然灾害之一。本研究旨在通过将地理空间数据与多标准决策分析(MCDA)方法相结合,划定美国德克萨斯州的洪水易发地区。在此框架下,采用层次分析法(AHP)对洪水调节因子进行系统评价和加权。AHP中的因子权重是根据专家评价、文献和相关公共机构的反馈建立的。通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评估洪水敏感性制图的有效性,重点关注曲线下面积(AUC)指标。采用多准则加权叠加法对不同地理空间层进行组合。利用美国国家环境信息中心(NCEI) 1985年至今的历史风暴事件数据对洪水敏感性图进行了验证。最终的敏感性图获得了0.90的高AUC得分,反映了模型预测与现实世界洪水事件之间的强大一致性。最易受洪水影响的盆地包括Sulphur、Cypress、Trinity、Neches-Trinity、Sabine、Guadalupe和Neches盆地,这些盆地在分析中被认为是风险最大的地区。洪水易感度空间分析表明,研究区约62%的区域处于高洪水风险区。因此,应优先考虑在高风险流域实施有针对性的洪水管理和减灾战略。
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Progress in Disaster Science
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