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Human dimensions in flood risk management: Exploring risk perception and climate change considerations among engineers in the US 洪水风险管理中的人类维度:探索美国工程师的风险感知和气候变化考虑
IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100453
Mohammad Pourmatin , Elham Ajorlou , Ali Farhadzadeh , Majid Ghayoomi , Elizabeth Hewitt
Due to an increase in natural hazards, the cost of physical damage to local infrastructure has grown significantly. However, many vulnerabilities faced by the built environment involve human factors, which remain understudied. This study examines factors that influence how hydraulic and coastal engineers involved in U.S. flood infrastructure design perceive risk and integrate environmental and social considerations into their professional recommendations. A survey was conducted of U.S.-based civil engineers specializing in flood infrastructure design to assess factors influencing their design-related judgments. Using various statistical analyses, this study identifies key predictors shaping engineers' engagement with risk and climate. Results show that engineers with liberal political orientations are more likely to incorporate climate change impacts into designs, and household income is negatively associated with risk-aversion attitudes. Engineers with limited work experience report more influence from peers, and dissatisfaction with engineering education is a strong predictor of reliance on personal attitudes when facing uncertainty. While engineers are not the final decision-makers, these findings highlight their crucial role as intermediaries who shape how risk is framed and which options are presented to agencies and clients. These findings offer novel contributions merging social science with engineering and inform how decision-makers can enhance flood risk management.
由于自然灾害的增加,对当地基础设施造成的物理破坏的成本大大增加。然而,建筑环境面临的许多脆弱性涉及人为因素,这些因素仍未得到充分研究。本研究考察了影响美国洪水基础设施设计的水利和海岸工程师如何感知风险,并将环境和社会因素纳入其专业建议的因素。对美国专门从事防洪基础设施设计的土木工程师进行了一项调查,以评估影响他们设计相关判断的因素。通过各种统计分析,本研究确定了影响工程师参与风险和气候的关键预测因素。结果表明,具有自由政治倾向的工程师更有可能将气候变化影响纳入设计中,家庭收入与风险厌恶态度呈负相关。工作经验有限的工程师受到同行的影响更大,对工程教育的不满是面对不确定性时依赖个人态度的一个强有力的预测因素。虽然工程师不是最终的决策者,但这些发现突显了他们作为中间人的关键作用,他们决定了风险的构成方式,以及向机构和客户提供哪些选择。这些发现提供了将社会科学与工程相结合的新贡献,并告知决策者如何加强洪水风险管理。
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引用次数: 0
Managing the post COVID-19 new normal: Redressing vulnerabilities of different occupational groups through social contract of public sector transparency and accountability 管理COVID-19后新常态:通过公共部门透明度和问责制的社会契约解决不同职业群体的脆弱性
IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100457
Shamima Prodhan, Khondoker Mokaddem Hossain, Md. Juel Mia
The COVID-19 has had a significant impact on various occupational groups in Bangladesh, disrupting their fundamental necessities and everyday activities. This study examines the governance responses to these occupational groups, focusing on transparency and accountability through the lens of the social contract theory. Unlike prior studies focused on economic impacts, this study reveals how governance failures exacerbated vulnerabilities of a critical gap in pandemic literature. By employing a mixed-methods approach, this study integrated qualitative techniques (key informant interviews and focus group discussions) with quantitative surveys to analyze both primary data collected from 355 respondents and secondary data from institutional reports and scholarly literature. A significant association was found between the pandemic's impact and occupational groups (X2(1, N = 355) =49.09, p = 0.000), highlighting job losses, reduced income, business closures, and salary deductions. A high prevalence of income dissatisfaction was observed, with 97.7 % of respondents expressing their discontent. Financial strain during different pandemic waves was evident, with t-values of 13.09 (first wave vs. pre-pandemic), −11.051 (first wave vs. second wave), and 8.073 (pre-pandemic vs. second wave), all p < 0.001. The government played a major role in providing food (p = 0.000) and health (p = 0.002) support; however, cash aid did not demonstrate statistical significance (p = 0.138). Gender inequalities were apparent in the provision of relief aid, with notable discrepancies in food assistance (p = 0.007), cash support (p < 0.001), and healthcare aid (p < 0.001). The study findings highlight the gaps in accountability and transparency in distributing support services, offering valuable insights for policymakers and researchers to enhance the resilience of impoverished populations in future crises. The study reveals novel insights into gendered aid disparities, urban-rural perception gaps, and systemic shortcomings in social safety nets during crises.
新冠肺炎疫情对孟加拉国各职业群体产生了重大影响,扰乱了他们的基本必需品和日常活动。本研究考察了对这些职业群体的治理反应,通过社会契约理论的视角关注透明度和问责制。与以往侧重于经济影响的研究不同,本研究揭示了治理失败如何加剧了流行病文献中一个关键空白的脆弱性。通过采用混合方法,本研究将定性技术(关键信息提供者访谈和焦点小组讨论)与定量调查相结合,分析了从355名受访者收集的主要数据以及来自机构报告和学术文献的次要数据。发现大流行的影响与职业群体之间存在显著关联(X2(1, N = 355) =49.09, p = 0.000),突出表明失业、收入减少、企业关闭和工资扣减。对收入不满的比例很高,97.7%的受访者表示不满。不同大流行波期间的财政压力都很明显,t值分别为13.09(第一波vs.大流行前)、- 11.051(第一波vs.第二波)和8.073(大流行前vs.第二波),p <;0.001. 政府在提供粮食(p = 0.000)和保健(p = 0.002)支助方面发挥了主要作用;而现金援助没有统计学意义(p = 0.138)。在提供救济援助方面存在明显的性别不平等,在食品援助(p = 0.007)、现金支持(p <;0.001)和医疗援助(p <;0.001)。研究结果强调了在分配支持服务的问责制和透明度方面存在的差距,为政策制定者和研究人员提高贫困人口在未来危机中的抵御能力提供了宝贵的见解。该研究对危机期间的性别援助差距、城乡认知差距和社会安全网的系统性缺陷提出了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Brahmaputra riverbank morpho dynamic changes: A multi-temporal geospatial assessment of erosional and processes in northern Bangladesh 雅鲁藏布江河岸形态动态变化:孟加拉国北部侵蚀过程的多时间地理空间评估
IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100452
Mostafizur Rahman, Rakibul Islam, Fabiha Bushra, Ibrahim Hossain, Mohoua Sobnam
Over thirty years (1994–2024), the braided Brahmaputra River has driven dramatic erosion and accretion in Bangladesh's Rangpur Division in northern Bangladesh, reshaping landforms and livelihoods. Our Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI)-based satellite analysis identifies three phases: from 1994 to 2004, intense bank collapse and channel migration caused a net loss of 62.69 km2; from 2004 to 2014, sediment deposition—bolstered by embankments and land-management practices—produced a net gain of 101.81 km2; and from 2014 to 2024, renewed fluvial forces and diminished sediment retention led to a further net loss of 32.83 km2. Fulchhari emerged as a hotspot of decline, while Ulipur and Chilmari showed alternating erosion–accretion patterns, highlighting localized sediment dynamics. These morphological changes have severe socio-economic impacts: agricultural lands have been swallowed by shifting channels, communities face repeated displacement, and infrastructure, including roads, schools, and flood defenses, remains at risk. By integrating multi-temporal NDWI metrics with Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping, this study moves beyond prior short-term or localized research to offer a comprehensive, longitudinal assessment of the Brahmaputra's geomorphological evolution. Addressing a key research gap, our findings elucidate the interplay of natural hydrodynamics and human interventions over decadal scales and provide essential guidance for sustainable river-bank management, infrastructure planning, and community resilience in one of South Asia's most dynamic fluvial landscapes.
30多年来(1994-2024年),布拉马普特拉河在孟加拉国北部的Rangpur地区造成了剧烈的侵蚀和增生,重塑了地形和生计。基于归一化差水指数(NDWI)的卫星分析确定了三个阶段:1994 - 2004年,强烈的河岸塌陷和河道迁移造成了62.69 km2的净损失;从2004年到2014年,在堤坝和土地管理措施的支持下,泥沙沉积产生了101.81平方公里的净收益;从2014年到2024年,河流力的恢复和泥沙滞留的减少导致了32.83平方公里的进一步净损失。Fulchhari是下降的热点,而ulpur和Chilmari则表现出交替的侵蚀-增生模式,突出了局部沉积物动力学。这些形态变化具有严重的社会经济影响:农业用地被移动的河道吞噬,社区面临反复流离失所,道路、学校和防洪等基础设施仍处于危险之中。通过将多时相NDWI指标与地理信息系统(GIS)制图相结合,本研究超越了以往的短期或局部研究,提供了对雅鲁藏布江地貌演变的全面、纵向评估。为了解决关键的研究空白,我们的研究结果阐明了自然水动力学和人类干预在十年尺度上的相互作用,并为南亚最具活力的河流景观之一的可持续河岸管理、基础设施规划和社区恢复力提供了重要指导。
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引用次数: 0
Risk assessment and simulation optimization of evacuation in large public building fires: A case study 大型公共建筑火灾疏散风险评估与模拟优化:一个案例研究
IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100454
Qiang Li, Zaohong Zhou, Yunbin Sun, Hongjun He
Fires in large public buildings cause substantial losses. Conducting reasonable evacuation risk assessments and simulation studies for early warning is essential. A comprehensive fire evacuation risk assessment model is proposed, consisting of a fire evacuation risk assessment framework based on Pythagorean fuzzy sets(PFS) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE) and fire evacuation simulations. The fire evacuation risk assessment is conducted using PFS and FCE. Simulations with BIM, Pyrosim, and Pathfinder validate the results through dynamic safety analysis. This innovative approach enhances the dynamic safety analysis of evacuations. Additionally, the study improves the integration between Pyrosim and Pathfinder software, providing more accurate and reliable simulation results. Taking a cafeteria for primary and secondary school students as an example, the results indicate that the fire evacuation risk level of the student cafeteria is “moderately high risk.” Visibility is found to be the most critical factor affecting available safe evacuation time, compared to CO concentration, smoke layer height, and temperature. Not all cafeteria occupants could evacuate within the preset time, and significant congestion was observed. Thus, the assessment results are deemed reliable. Based on these results, targeted fire safety evacuation control strategies are proposed to enhance the efficiency and safety of evacuations in similar venues.
大型公共建筑的火灾造成巨大损失。进行合理的疏散风险评估和预警模拟研究至关重要。提出了基于毕达哥拉斯模糊集(PFS)和模糊综合评价(FCE)的火灾疏散风险综合评估框架和火灾疏散模拟的火灾疏散风险综合评估模型。采用PFS和FCE进行火灾疏散风险评估。使用BIM、Pyrosim和Pathfinder进行模拟,通过动态安全分析验证结果。这种创新的方法增强了疏散的动态安全分析。此外,该研究还改进了Pyrosim与Pathfinder软件的集成,提供了更准确可靠的仿真结果。以某中小学生食堂为例,结果表明该学生食堂的火灾疏散风险等级为“中等高风险”。与CO浓度、烟雾层高度和温度相比,能见度是影响可用安全疏散时间的最关键因素。并不是所有的食堂居民都能在预定的时间内撤离,并且观察到严重的拥堵。因此,评估结果被认为是可靠的。在此基础上,提出了针对性的消防安全疏散控制策略,以提高类似场所的疏散效率和安全性。
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引用次数: 0
Data-driven innovations in disaster risk management: Advancing resilience and sustainability through big data analytics 灾害风险管理中的数据驱动创新:通过大数据分析提高复原力和可持续性
IF 2.6 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-07-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100451
Suliman Zakaria Suliman Abdalla
The integration of Big Data Analytics (BDA) into Disaster Risk Management (DRM) presents transformative opportunities to enhance decision-making and foster environmental sustainability across preparedness, response, recovery, and resilience. This study investigates the factors influencing BDA adoption in DRM using an integrated Technology-Organization-Environment and Diffusion of Innovation (TOE-DOI) framework. Survey data collected from academic participants with backgrounds in statistics, data analysis, and quantitative methods, along with technical, management, and disaster response professionals, were analyzed using ordinal logistic regression to assess the impact of technological, organizational, and environmental predictors. Key findings show that technological enablers drive BDA adoption by enhancing prediction and efficiency, while organizational readiness supports sustained integration. Stakeholder collaboration promotes adoption through improved coordination. In contrast, regulatory and competitive factors were not significant. The study provides actionable insights for advancing DRM through multidisciplinary strategies that align BDA integration with sustainability goals, emphasizing its potential to support resilient systems and informed decision-making in the face of complex environmental challenges.
将大数据分析(BDA)整合到灾害风险管理(DRM)中,为在备灾、响应、恢复和复原过程中加强决策和促进环境可持续性提供了变革性机会。本研究采用技术-组织-环境与创新扩散(TOE-DOI)整合框架,探讨DRM中BDA采用的影响因素。从具有统计学、数据分析和定量方法背景的学术参与者以及技术、管理和灾害应对专业人员那里收集的调查数据,使用有序逻辑回归来评估技术、组织和环境预测因素的影响。主要发现表明,技术推动者通过增强预测和效率来推动BDA的采用,而组织准备支持持续集成。涉众协作通过改进的协调促进采用。相比之下,监管和竞争因素不显著。该研究为通过多学科战略推进DRM提供了可行的见解,这些战略使BDA与可持续发展目标相结合,强调了其在面对复杂环境挑战时支持弹性系统和明智决策的潜力。
{"title":"Data-driven innovations in disaster risk management: Advancing resilience and sustainability through big data analytics","authors":"Suliman Zakaria Suliman Abdalla","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100451","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100451","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The integration of Big Data Analytics (BDA) into Disaster Risk Management (DRM) presents transformative opportunities to enhance decision-making and foster environmental sustainability across preparedness, response, recovery, and resilience. This study investigates the factors influencing BDA adoption in DRM using an integrated Technology-Organization-Environment and Diffusion of Innovation (TOE-DOI) framework. Survey data collected from academic participants with backgrounds in statistics, data analysis, and quantitative methods, along with technical, management, and disaster response professionals, were analyzed using ordinal logistic regression to assess the impact of technological, organizational, and environmental predictors. Key findings show that technological enablers drive BDA adoption by enhancing prediction and efficiency, while organizational readiness supports sustained integration. Stakeholder collaboration promotes adoption through improved coordination. In contrast, regulatory and competitive factors were not significant. The study provides actionable insights for advancing DRM through multidisciplinary strategies that align BDA integration with sustainability goals, emphasizing its potential to support resilient systems and informed decision-making in the face of complex environmental challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100451"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144686361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Geomorphic index alterations and socioeconomic implications: A case study of a Coastal River system in Bangladesh 地貌指数变化及其社会经济意义:以孟加拉国沿海河流系统为例
IF 2.6 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100450
Sukhen Goswami , Md. Masum Billah , Md Sabbir Hossen , Mehedi Hasan Ovi , Shacin Chandra Saha , Mir Md. Tasnim Alam , Probir Kumar Bhowmik , Atikul Haque Farazi , Md. Ashraful Islam , Dhiman Kumer Roy
Riverbank erosion, driven by natural processes and human activities, poses significant socio-environmental challenges in Bangladesh. This study investigated the geomorphic evolution and socioeconomic impacts of riverbank erosion along the Sandhya River in Babuganj Upazila, Barishal, Bangladesh. The primary aim was to assess how natural processes and human interventions, such as sand mining and infrastructure development, have altered the river morphology and affected local communities. Landsat imagery from 1980 to 2023, with a 10-year interval, was analyzed to assess key geomorphic indices—sinuosity, channel width, widening rate, and migration rate using remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and field surveys. The results indicate significant geomorphic transformation, with sinuosity varying between 1.01 and 2.08, with a post-2000 increase in channel widening (up to 27 m/year) linked to intensified sand mining and brickfield expansion. Mid-channel bar formation, absent before 2000, reached 4.0 km2 by 2023, affecting flow patterns. The widening rate shifted from a maximum of 19 m/year (1980–2000, pre-sand mining) to 27 m/year (2000–2023, post-sand mining), with a peak near Doarika Bridge, which increased the vulnerability of the Barishal Airport area, averaging 3.65 m/year. Socioeconomic surveys (n = 154) reveal severe livelihood disruption: 65 % of lost land was agricultural, 73 % of affected households migrated to urban centers, and 45 % fell into debt. The most affected areas were Dehergati, Rahamatpur, Rakudia, and Kedarpur, emphasizing the need for capacity building. The study concludes that integrated geomorphic restoration and community resilience planning are urgently needed to address erosion-driven displacement and economic vulnerability in the region.
在自然过程和人类活动的驱动下,河岸侵蚀给孟加拉国带来了重大的社会环境挑战。本研究调查了孟加拉国巴布干吉乌帕齐拉山迪亚河沿岸地貌演变和河岸侵蚀的社会经济影响。研究的主要目的是评估自然过程和人类干预(如采砂和基础设施建设)是如何改变河流形态和影响当地社区的。利用遥感、地理信息系统(GIS)和野外调查,分析了1980 - 2023年的陆地卫星影像,以10年为间隔,评估了关键地貌指数——弯度、河道宽度、加宽率和迁移率。结果表明,地貌发生了显著的变化,弯曲度在1.01 ~ 2.08之间变化,2000年后河道拓宽增加(高达27米/年),与采砂加剧和砖田扩张有关。2000年以前没有的中间河道沙洲形成,到2023年达到4.0平方公里,影响了水流模式。扩大速率从最大值19 m/年(1980-2000年采砂前)转变为27m /年(2000-2023年采砂后),并在Doarika大桥附近达到峰值,增加了Barishal机场区域的脆弱性,平均为3.65 m/年。社会经济调查(n = 154)揭示了严重的生计中断:65%的丧失土地是农业用地,73%的受影响家庭迁移到城市中心,45%陷入债务。受影响最严重的地区是Dehergati、Rahamatpur、Rakudia和Kedarpur,这强调了能力建设的必要性。研究认为,该地区迫切需要综合地貌恢复和社区恢复力规划,以解决侵蚀驱动的流离失所和经济脆弱性问题。
{"title":"Geomorphic index alterations and socioeconomic implications: A case study of a Coastal River system in Bangladesh","authors":"Sukhen Goswami ,&nbsp;Md. Masum Billah ,&nbsp;Md Sabbir Hossen ,&nbsp;Mehedi Hasan Ovi ,&nbsp;Shacin Chandra Saha ,&nbsp;Mir Md. Tasnim Alam ,&nbsp;Probir Kumar Bhowmik ,&nbsp;Atikul Haque Farazi ,&nbsp;Md. Ashraful Islam ,&nbsp;Dhiman Kumer Roy","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100450","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100450","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Riverbank erosion, driven by natural processes and human activities, poses significant socio-environmental challenges in Bangladesh. This study investigated the geomorphic evolution and socioeconomic impacts of riverbank erosion along the Sandhya River in Babuganj Upazila, Barishal, Bangladesh. The primary aim was to assess how natural processes and human interventions, such as sand mining and infrastructure development, have altered the river morphology and affected local communities. Landsat imagery from 1980 to 2023, with a 10-year interval, was analyzed to assess key geomorphic indices—sinuosity, channel width, widening rate, and migration rate using remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and field surveys. The results indicate significant geomorphic transformation, with sinuosity varying between 1.01 and 2.08, with a post-2000 increase in channel widening (up to 27 m/year) linked to intensified sand mining and brickfield expansion. Mid-channel bar formation, absent before 2000, reached 4.0 km<sup>2</sup> by 2023, affecting flow patterns. The widening rate shifted from a maximum of 19 m/year (1980–2000, pre-sand mining) to 27 m/year (2000–2023, post-sand mining), with a peak near Doarika Bridge, which increased the vulnerability of the Barishal Airport area, averaging 3.65 m/year. Socioeconomic surveys (<em>n</em> = 154) reveal severe livelihood disruption: 65 % of lost land was agricultural, 73 % of affected households migrated to urban centers, and 45 % fell into debt. The most affected areas were Dehergati, Rahamatpur, Rakudia, and Kedarpur, emphasizing the need for capacity building. The study concludes that integrated geomorphic restoration and community resilience planning are urgently needed to address erosion-driven displacement and economic vulnerability in the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100450"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144695287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Influence of pedestrian grouping on evacuation efficiency in underground flooded stairs: a 3D numerical assessment 行人分组对地下水淹楼梯疏散效率影响的三维数值评估
IF 2.6 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100448
Carlos H. Aparicio Uribe , Beniamino Russo , Jackson Téllez-Álvarez , Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz
Urban floods increasingly threaten underground spaces and their users. Often essential for evacuation, stairs pose unique challenges as they also serve as the main path for the incoming water. While prior studies typically examine individual behaviour, the role of groups on flooded stairs remains underexplored. This study addresses that gap through a 3D numerical analysis evaluating how different pedestrian arrangements affect evacuation efficiency and safety. Using realistic human body dummies on real-scale stairs under a water discharge of 0.423 m3/s, the analysis calculates hydrodynamic forces alongside Momentum of Flow MF and Specific Force Per Unit Width (SFPUW) M0 to assess hazardous conditions. Scenarios include individuals alone, in tandem, and side-by-side. Results show that group configurations significantly influence water-dragging forces. Side-by-side arrangements increased the force on both neighbouring and downstream pedestrians, while tandem formations reduced drag on trailing individuals. Greater separation distances between individuals reduced force influences. These findings reveal how group positioning affects safety during evacuation and highlight potential bottlenecks. The study offers valuable insights for improving evacuation strategies and safety protocols in underground infrastructure during floods, ultimately contributing to urban resilience and effective flood risk mitigation.
城市洪水日益威胁地下空间及其使用者。楼梯通常是疏散必不可少的,因为它们也是来水的主要通道,因此构成了独特的挑战。虽然先前的研究通常是研究个体行为,但群体在被水淹没的楼梯上的作用仍未得到充分探索。本研究通过三维数值分析来解决这一差距,评估不同的行人安排如何影响疏散效率和安全。在0.423 m3/s排量的真实楼梯上使用逼真的人体假人,分析计算流体动力以及流动动量MF和单位宽度比力(SFPUW) M0,以评估危险情况。场景包括单独、串联和并排。结果表明,组形对水拖力有显著影响。并排排列增加了对邻近和下游行人的作用力,而串联排列减少了对尾随个体的阻力。个体之间更大的分离距离减小了力的影响。这些发现揭示了群体定位如何影响疏散过程中的安全,并突出了潜在的瓶颈。该研究为改善洪水期间地下基础设施的疏散策略和安全协议提供了有价值的见解,最终有助于城市抵御能力和有效减轻洪水风险。
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引用次数: 0
Comparative evaluation of machine learning models for extreme river water level forecasting in Bangladesh: Implications for flood and drought resilience 孟加拉国极端河流水位预测的机器学习模型的比较评估:对洪水和干旱恢复能力的影响
IF 2.6 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100449
Md Touhidul Islam , Sujan Chandra Roy , Nusrat Jahan , Al-Mahmud , Md Mazharul Islam , Abdullah Al Ferdaus , Kazunori Fujisawa , A.K.M. Adham
Reliable forecasting of extreme river water levels is vital for managing flood and drought risks in Bangladesh, a deltaic nation highly vulnerable to climate change. This study compares nine machine learning (ML) models for predicting monthly maximum and minimum water levels at three key stations along the Old Brahmaputra River using a 34-year dataset (1990–2024). Performance was assessed using ten metrics including RMSE, R2, and NSE. Random Forest Regression (RFR) consistently outperformed other models, achieving the highest accuracy for both maximum (RMSE: 0.64–0.77 m; R2: 0.87–0.92) and minimum water levels (RMSE: 0.49–0.66 m; R2: 0.82–0.92), while linear models underperformed in capturing nonlinear patterns. A PCA-based framework further validated RFR's robustness, with average normalized composite scores of 1.00 (maximum) and 0.99 (minimum), significantly surpassing Ensemble Regression (0.89/0.84), Support Vector Regression (0.88/0.88), and other models. Spatially, midstream stations showed higher accuracy (R2 > 0.90) due to stable hydrodynamics, while downstream performance decreased from tidal effects. Key innovations including autoregressive lag features, sliding windows, and a multivariate evaluation framework significantly improved prediction accuracy. These findings demonstrate that ML models can enhance water level forecasting and disaster resilience in climate-vulnerable regions, even with limited data.
孟加拉国是一个极易受到气候变化影响的三角洲国家,对极端河流水位的可靠预测对于管理洪水和干旱风险至关重要。本研究比较了九种机器学习(ML)模型,使用34年数据集(1990-2024)预测老雅鲁藏布江沿岸三个关键站点的每月最高和最低水位。使用RMSE、R2和NSE等10个指标评估性能。随机森林回归(RFR)始终优于其他模型,在两个最大值(RMSE: 0.64-0.77 m;R2: 0.87-0.92)和最小水位(RMSE: 0.49-0.66 m;R2: 0.82-0.92),而线性模型在捕获非线性模式方面表现不佳。基于pca的框架进一步验证了RFR的稳健性,平均归一化综合得分为1.00(最大值)和0.99(最小值),显著超过Ensemble Regression(0.89/0.84)、Support Vector Regression(0.88/0.88)等模型。空间上,中游站精度较高(R2 >;0.90)由于稳定的流体力学,而下游性能则因潮汐效应而下降。关键创新包括自回归滞后特征、滑动窗口和多变量评估框架,显著提高了预测精度。这些发现表明,即使数据有限,ML模型也可以增强气候脆弱地区的水位预测和抗灾能力。
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引用次数: 0
Community resilience to wildfires: A systematic review of impacts, coping strategies, indicators, and governance challenges 社区对野火的恢复力:对影响、应对策略、指标和治理挑战的系统回顾
IF 2.6 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100447
José Sandoval-Díaz , Camila Navarrete-Valladares , Jerónimo Vega-Ortega , Consuelo Suazo-Muñoz , Juan P. Gallegos Riquelme , Eduardo Sandoval-Obando , Carlos Reyes Valenzuela
Wildfires are socio-natural disasters of anthropogenic origin that threaten ecosystems and urban-rural interface communities. Strengthening community resilience (CR) is essential to reduce and mitigate associated risks and impacts. This study conducts a systematic review of global literature on CR to wildfires, following PRISMA 2020 guidelines. A total of 272 articles were retrieved from Web of Science, Scopus, EBSCO Host, and SciELO, with 30 meeting the inclusion criteria. Content analysis and narrative synthesis were conducted, segmenting findings into impacts, coping strategies, and promoters and barriers of CR, complemented by a meta-synthesis prioritizing qualitative post-disaster studies. Main impacts included environmental degradation and persistent mental health problems. Evacuations and social cohesion emerged as key coping strategies, while social support networks and emergency planning were critical promoters of resilience. Barriers included inadequate disaster risk governance, limited local capacities, and weakened community cohesion. Findings highlight the need to integrate technical and local knowledge to enhance disaster preparedness, response, and recovery, emphasizing the articulation between community initiatives and institutional frameworks. This study contributes evidence-based recommendations for strengthening community-based disaster risk management strategies, supporting holistic, multilevel approaches aligned with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.
野火是一种人为的社会自然灾害,对生态系统和城乡结合部构成威胁。加强社区复原力(CR)对于减少和减轻相关风险和影响至关重要。本研究根据PRISMA 2020指南,对全球关于野火CR的文献进行了系统回顾。在Web of Science、Scopus、EBSCO Host和SciELO中共检索到272篇文章,其中30篇符合纳入标准。进行了内容分析和叙事综合,将研究结果划分为影响、应对策略、促进因素和障碍,并辅以优先考虑灾后定性研究的元综合。主要影响包括环境退化和持续存在的精神健康问题。疏散和社会凝聚力成为关键的应对战略,而社会支持网络和应急规划是恢复力的关键促进因素。障碍包括灾害风险治理不足、地方能力有限以及社区凝聚力减弱。调查结果强调需要将技术和地方知识结合起来,以加强备灾、救灾和恢复,强调社区倡议和机构框架之间的联系。本研究为加强以社区为基础的灾害风险管理战略提供了基于证据的建议,支持与《仙台减少灾害风险框架》相一致的整体、多层次方法。
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引用次数: 0
Rebuilding lives in Nagaya, a public housing for older victims of the great East Japan earthquake: An interview survey 在长屋重建生活,这是为东日本大地震的老年受害者提供的公共住房:一项采访调查
IF 2.6 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100446
Naomi Ito , Yurie Kobashi , Yuri Kinoshita , Nobuaki Moriyama , Toshiki Abe , Hiroaki Saito , Isamu Amir , Chika Yamamoto , Mika Sato , Masaharu Tsubokura
After the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, Soma City in Fukushima Prefecture, sustained extensive damage, and subsequently developed public housing for older victims, namely ‘Soma Idobata Nagaya’. The current interview survey aimed to report the living conditions of such older victims in Nagaya and accordingly suggest strategies for supporting the older population who experience disasters. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 32 Nagaya residents, who relocated there due to the earthquake, and performed a thematic analysis of the data. The development of Nagaya in Soma City after the earthquake enabled older residents to return to their familiar neighbourhoods and provided social security for those vulnerable to disasters. Beyond housing, Nagaya offered psychological stability and supported their independent living in a way they desired. It played a substantial role in rebuilding their lives, allowing them to overcome the hardships of the disaster and reintegrate into the local community. In summary, this study emphasizes the critical role of communities in post-disaster recovery and proposes new perspectives for supporting older adults in such contexts.
2011年东日本大地震后,福岛县的Soma市遭受了广泛的破坏,随后为老年受害者开发了公共住房,即“Soma Idobata Nagaya”。目前的访谈调查旨在报告长屋这些老年受害者的生活状况,并据此提出支持遭受灾害的老年人口的策略。我们对32名因地震而搬迁到长屋的居民进行了半结构化访谈,并对数据进行了专题分析。地震后Soma市长屋的开发使老年居民能够回到他们熟悉的社区,并为易受灾害影响的人提供社会保障。除了住房,长屋还提供了心理上的稳定,并以他们希望的方式支持他们的独立生活。它在重建他们的生活中发挥了重要作用,使他们能够克服灾难的困难,重新融入当地社区。总之,本研究强调了社区在灾后恢复中的关键作用,并提出了在这种情况下支持老年人的新视角。
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Progress in Disaster Science
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