Geography and Sustainability最新文献_第5页

Precipitation mediates the effects of species diversity and belowground ecosystem multifunctionality on community stability across alpine grasslands, Qinghai-Xizang Plateau 降水介导青藏高原高寒草原物种多样性和地下生态系统多功能性对群落稳定性的影响

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100336

Miao Liu , Le Sun , Yanli Zhang , Yuqing Liu , Yang Li , Ziyin Du , Fei Peng

Maintaining community stability has profound positive impacts on the ecological functions and sustainable utilization of grassland ecosystems. Numerous studies have explored how community stability responds to climate change and its relationship with plant species diversity. Nevertheless, the impact and underlying mechanisms of belowground ecosystem multifunctionality (BGEMF) on community stability along a precipitation gradient in alpine grasslands remain poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted field surveys from 2015 to 2020, measuring plant species diversity, annual net primary productivity (ANPP), and soil physicochemical properties across 79 sites in alpine grassland ecosystems on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Our findings highlight both plant species diversity (standardized total effect: 32 %) and BGEMF (standardized total effect: 75 %) had an indirect effect on stability viaregulating mean ANPP within alpine grasslands. Furthermore, mean annual precipitation substantially impacted both plant species diversity and BGEMF, subsequently affecting community stability. However, temperature had a strong negative regulatory effect on species diversity, the mean and variability of ANPP. Thus, we emphasized the pivotal role of plant species diversity and BGEMF in shaping community stability, and stated the imperative need for species conservation and BGEMF improvement to sustain alpine ecosystems in the face of ongoing climate change.

保持群落稳定对草地生态系统的生态功能和可持续利用具有深远的积极影响。许多研究探讨了群落稳定性对气候变化的响应及其与植物物种多样性的关系。然而，地下生态系统多功能性（BGEMF）对高寒草原沿降水梯度的群落稳定性的影响及其潜在机制尚不清楚。为了解决这一知识缺口，我们于2015年至2020年对青藏高原79个高寒草地生态系统进行了实地调查，测量了植物物种多样性、年净初级生产力（ANPP）和土壤理化性质。研究结果表明，植物物种多样性（标准化总效应为32%）和BGEMF（标准化总效应为75%）通过调节平均ANPP对高寒草地的稳定性有间接影响。此外，年平均降水量对植物物种多样性和BGEMF均有显著影响，进而影响群落稳定性。温度对物种多样性、ANPP平均值和变异率有较强的负调控作用。因此，我们强调了植物物种多样性和BGEMF在塑造群落稳定性中的关键作用，并指出在持续气候变化的背景下，物种保护和BGEMF的改善是维持高寒生态系统的迫切需要。

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引用次数: 0

Macrosystems ecology: A new engine and frontier in contemporary ecosystem science 宏观系统生态学：当代生态系统科学的新引擎和前沿

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100334

Guirui Yu , Zongxu Yu , Zhi Chen , Qiufeng Wang

Ecosystems are complex systems shaped by both self-organization and anthropogenic regulation, emerging from the dynamic interplay among water, land, climate, biota, and human activities. As the foundational habitat for human well-being, they provide essential services including ecological goods, natural resources, cultural value, and livable environments. Amid accelerating global change, intensifying environmental pressures, and deepening disciplinary integration, ecosystem science is entering a period of transformative development. This study identifies macrosystems ecology, grounded in the principles of large-scale ecological processes, as a pivotal framework for driving the future of ecosystem science. We propose an integrated theoretical, epistemological, engineering and technological system to support this evolution, and retrospectively examine the origins and scientific mission of macrosystems ecology. Core questions, practical applications, research subjects, paradigms, and methodological systems are systematically outlined. In addition, we articulate the multidisciplinary principles, epistemological framework, and axiomatic system that underpin a coherent structure for macrosystems ecology. Together, these components offer strategic guidance for advancing both theoretical understanding and practical innovation in sustainable ecosystem management.

生态系统是由自组织和人为调节共同形成的复杂系统，是水、土地、气候、生物群和人类活动之间动态相互作用的产物。作为人类福祉的基础栖息地，它们提供了包括生态产品、自然资源、文化价值和宜居环境在内的基本服务。在全球变化加速、环境压力加大、学科整合深入的背景下，生态系统科学正进入一个转型发展时期。本研究确定了以大规模生态过程原则为基础的宏观系统生态学，作为推动生态系统科学未来的关键框架。我们提出了一个综合的理论、认识论、工程和技术体系来支持这一演变，并回顾性地考察了宏观系统生态学的起源和科学使命。系统地概述了核心问题、实际应用、研究对象、范例和方法系统。此外，我们阐明了多学科原则，认识论框架和公理系统，支撑了宏观系统生态学的连贯结构。总之，这些组成部分为推进可持续生态系统管理的理论认识和实践创新提供了战略指导。

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引用次数: 0

Practical paths to halt elevation loss in Vietnamese Mekong Delta 阻止越南湄公河三角洲海拔下降的可行途径

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100335

Edward Park , Dung Duc Tran , Philip S.J. Minderhoud , Ryan Clarke , Faith Ka Shun Chan

Although the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is recognised as one of the world’s most vulnerable deltas, scholars have yet to provide an integrated diagnosis linking locally driven pressures to actionable pathways for halting its rapid elevation loss. The VMD—39,000 km² that feeds 18 million people—is sinking because four pressures act in concert: upstream dams have already cut sediment delivery by 70 %–83 % (projected 96 % if all planned projects proceed), mean sea level is rising 1.5–2 cm/yr, river-bed sand mining now removes about 3 Mm³/yr and deepens channels by up to 15 cm/yr, and groundwater withdrawals of approximately 2.5 Mm³/day have accelerated land-surface subsidence from smaller than 3 cm/yr in 2006–2010 to peaks of 5–6 cm/yr today. Scenario modelling shows that halving pumping would stabilize aquifer heads and cut subsidence by about 50 % within a decade, while provincial sand-quota cuts of 30 %–50 % would slow bed incision and ease salinity intrusion, reducing the irrigation deficits that drive further pumping. While the large-scale causes of subsidence (dams, sea level rise, sand mining, groundwater extraction) are well recognized, actionable, local-level management solutions to immediately slow subsidence and salinity intrusion—independent of slow international negotiations—have been underexplored and under-implemented. Because dam and climate remedies rely on slow transboundary negotiations, we target the more practical local pressures—sand mining and groundwater extraction—by first tightening sand-mining licenses, enforcing tiered groundwater tariffs, and scaling up rain- and surface-water alternatives, buying time for longer-term basin and climate agreements. These locally actionable measures can significantly reduce subsidence and provide a scalable model for sustaining deltas around the world.

尽管越南湄公河三角洲（VMD）被认为是世界上最脆弱的三角洲之一，但学者们尚未提供一种综合诊断，将当地驱动的压力与阻止其快速海拔下降的可行途径联系起来。养活1800万人口的39,000平方公里的海洋正在下沉，因为四个压力共同作用：上游水坝已经减少了70% - 83%的沉积物（如果所有计划中的项目都继续进行，预计将减少96%），平均海平面每年上升1.5-2厘米，河床采砂现在每年移走约3毫米³，并使河道加深15厘米/年，大约2.5毫米³/天的地下水提取加速了地面沉降，从2006-2010年的小于3厘米/年增加到今天的5-6厘米/年。情景模型显示，将抽水量减半将稳定含水层水头，并在10年内将沉降减少约50%，而各省的砂石配额减少30% - 50%将减缓河床切割，缓解盐分入侵，减少灌溉不足，从而推动进一步抽水量。虽然下沉的大规模原因（大坝、海平面上升、采砂、地下水开采）是众所周知的，但可操作的、地方一级的管理解决方案（独立于缓慢的国际谈判）尚未得到充分的探索和实施。由于大坝和气候补救措施依赖于缓慢的跨境谈判，我们针对更实际的当地压力——采砂和地下水开采——首先收紧采砂许可证，实施分层地下水关税，扩大雨水和地表水的替代方案，为长期的流域和气候协议争取时间。这些局部可行的措施可以显著减少下沉，并为世界各地的三角洲可持续发展提供可扩展的模式。

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引用次数: 0

Urban green infrastructure for flood resilience: Runoff sink-source regime shifts and vegetation structure influences 城市绿色基础设施的抗洪能力：径流库源状态变化和植被结构的影响

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100333

Kejing Zhou , Fanhua Kong , Haiwei Yin , Georgia Destouni , Xueying Zhuang , Yulong Ban , Liding Chen

Over the period of rainfall, urban green infrastructures (UGI) function like a sponge by absorbing surface runoff as sinks; however, they will shift to sources once their runoff reduction capacities are exceeded. This dynamic of sink-source shifts, and its dependence on the vegetation structure, remain poorly understood, limiting the action of flood-resilient UGI strategies. This study employs MIKE SHE/11 model coupled with statistical analysis for such resolution. Across four scenarios ranging from light to heavy rainfall, we identified regime shifts in UGI system through the decreasing to increasing trends of sink fractions, typically occurring around 13–18 h after rainfall starts. Based on these regime shifts, we categorized the UGI system into vulnerable, reliable, and recoverable components, highlighting its heterogeneous performance. In addition, by examining the influence of vegetation structure on sink–source dynamics, we found that a higher probability of sinks under light rainfalls was associated with a greater leaf area index (LAI) and vegetation height standard deviation (VH_STD), while green volume (GV) and canopy height (CH) played a more prominent role under heavier rainfalls. Threshold effect analysis further revealed that, a high proportion of the recoverable parts met the thresholds of CH (82 %) and GV (85 %), whereas fewer reached the thresholds of LAI (15 %–19 %) and VH_STD (3 %–6 %). These findings underscore the importance of enhancing 3D vegetation configuration for UGI to adapt to flood impacts. Our study expects to provide actionable knowledge for understanding, quantification, and management of the runoff sink-source dynamics, informing UGI design and planning to achieve urban flood resilience.

在降雨期间，城市绿色基础设施（UGI）像海绵一样吸收地表径流作为汇；然而，一旦它们的径流减少能力超过，它们就会转移到水源。这种汇源转移的动态及其对植被结构的依赖仍然知之甚少，这限制了抗洪UGI策略的作用。本研究采用MIKE SHE/11模型结合统计分析对该分辨率进行求解。在从小雨到暴雨的四种情景中，我们确定了UGI系统的状态变化，通过汇分数的减少到增加趋势，通常发生在降雨开始后的13-18 h左右。基于这些变化，我们将UGI系统分为易受攻击的、可靠的和可恢复的组件，突出其异构性能。此外，通过研究植被结构对汇源动态的影响，我们发现，在小雨条件下，越高的汇概率与越大的叶面积指数（LAI）和植被高度标准差（VHSTD）相关，而在暴雨条件下，绿积（GV）和冠层高度（CH）的作用更为突出。阈值效应分析进一步表明，可恢复部件满足CH（82%）和GV（85%）阈值的比例较高，而达到LAI（15% - 19%）和VHSTD（3% - 6%）阈值的比例较低。这些发现强调了增强UGI三维植被配置以适应洪水影响的重要性。我们的研究希望为理解、量化和管理径流库源动态提供可操作的知识，为UGI设计和规划提供信息，以实现城市洪水抵御能力。

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引用次数: 0

Unveiling the buffering impacts of temperate forests on enhancing grain yields through regional biogeophysical climate modification 揭示温带森林通过区域生物地球物理气候变化对粮食增产的缓冲作用

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100332

Lingxue Yu , Zhuoran Yan , Tingxiang Liu , Xuan Li , Jiaxuan Li , Kun Bu , Wen J. Wang

Temperate forests exert significant biogeophysical influences on local and regional climates through modulating the energy and moisture exchanges between the land surface and the atmosphere, thereby serving as crucial barriers with significant buffering impacts on the productivity of adjacent agricultural ecosystems. However, the extent and underlying mechanisms of these biogeophysical and buffering effects of temperate forest barriers remains insufficiently understood. In this study, we integrated the dynamic crop model Noah-MP-Crop with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate the biogeophysical climate regulation of temperate forests and its buffering effects on crop yields in adjacent agricultural lands across Northeast China. Our findings revealed that temperate forest barriers induced significant local climate effects by cooling air and surface temperatures and reducing wind speeds within forested areas during the growing season, while also regulating non-local climate, particularly by altering regional precipitation patterns, 2 m water vapor mixing ratio (Q2), and soil moisture, predominantly in adjacent cropland areas. Furthermore, these forest barriers were found to modulate climate extremes, through affecting maximum temperature and wind speed on a local scale, as well as both maximum and minimum Q2 in non-local croplands. Our study also observed that temperate forest barriers, through biogeophysical climate regulation, enhanced GPP, NPP, and grain yields across most cropland areas. This productivity boost was especially pronounced, with yield increases up to 20 % in certain regions during the extreme drought conditions of 2017, underscoring the critical role of temperate forest barriers in sustaining and enhancing crop yields under severe climatic stress. Our findings underscore the significant buffering effects of temperate forest barriers on regional agricultural production, having important implications for climate adaptation strategies aimed at bolstering agricultural resilience in the face of increasing climate variability and extremes.

温带森林通过调节陆地表面与大气之间的能量和水分交换，对当地和区域气候产生重要的生物地球物理影响，从而对邻近农业生态系统的生产力产生重要的缓冲作用。然而，温带森林屏障的这些生物地球物理和缓冲效应的程度和潜在机制仍然没有得到充分的了解。本研究将Noah-MP-Crop动态作物模型与WRF （Weather Research and Forecasting）模型相结合，研究了东北地区温带森林的生物地球物理气候调控及其对邻近农田作物产量的缓冲作用。我们的研究结果表明，温带森林屏障通过降低生长季节森林区域内的空气和地表温度以及降低风速，引起了显著的局部气候影响，同时也调节了非局部气候，特别是通过改变区域降水模式、2 m水汽混合比（Q2）和土壤湿度，主要是在邻近的农田地区。此外，这些森林屏障通过影响局部尺度上的最高温度和风速以及非局部农田的最大和最小Q2来调节极端气候。我们的研究还发现，温带森林屏障通过生物地球物理气候调节，提高了大多数农田的GPP、NPP和粮食产量。这一生产力提升尤为显著，在2017年极端干旱条件下，某些地区的产量增长高达20%，凸显了温带森林屏障在严重气候压力下维持和提高作物产量方面的关键作用。我们的研究结果强调了温带森林屏障对区域农业生产的显著缓冲作用，这对气候适应战略具有重要意义，旨在增强农业在面对日益增加的气候变率和极端事件时的抵御能力。

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引用次数: 0

Urban flourish or peril: Navigating the safe and just space through the lens of ecosystem services in China’s urbanization 城市繁荣或危险：中国城市化中生态系统服务视角下的安全与公正空间导航

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100331

Qin Zhou , Changgao Cheng , Zhou Fang , Shi Xue , Qiuya Zhao , Zhongde Huang , Jie Wang , Wei Jin , Chenjun Zhang , Yang Bai , Ni Geng , Hengquan Zhang

Urbanization develops with the goal of establishing improved and more sustainable habitats for residents. Environmental and social performance must be simultaneously monitored to ascertain whether regions are progressing towards or deviating from the safe and just space (SJS) in urbanization. Despite relevant studies, the absence of indicators that bridge ecological preservation and human well-beings renders dual monitoring challenging. This study bridged the gap by exploring the interactions between urbanization, ecosystem services (ESs), and basic water, energy, and food (WEF) needs within the SJS framework across China and its provinces. By quantifying the minimum and actual demands for freshwater withdrawal, carbon emissions, phosphorus emissions, and land use, as well as the supply of ESs into unified biophysical indicators, we found that: (1) China can meet the basic WEF needs for all from 2000 to 2020, but only water and land provisioning ESs can operate within the SJS. Carbon emissions surpassed the sequestration capacity in 2010, while phosphorus purification ES has consistently been unsafe. (2) The SJS performance in terms of ecological and social fulfilment exhibited scale differences and undergone changes with urbanization. Overall, no province in China can consistently operate within all SJSs. (3) In the process of urbanization, improvements in ecological protection and production practices in most provinces expanded the size of SJS, but the continuous increase in total demand failed to steer regions toward safer spaces. Our framework emphasized the common but differentiated pathways that regions at varying stages of urbanization navigate to achieve safety and justice. It also provides an applicable solution for regions aiming to pursue urban growth while maintaining ecological conservation and social justice, ultimately achieving sustainable development.

城市化的发展目标是为居民建立更好的、更可持续的栖息地。必须同时监测环境和社会绩效，以确定各区域在城市化进程中是朝着安全与公正空间前进还是偏离了安全与公正空间。尽管有相关研究，但缺乏连接生态保护和人类福祉的指标，这使得双重监测具有挑战性。本研究通过在中国和各省的SJS框架内探索城市化、生态系统服务（ESs）和基本水、能源和食物（WEF）需求之间的相互作用，弥合了这一差距。通过将淡水提取量、碳排放、磷排放、土地利用的最小需求和实际需求以及生态系统的供给量化为统一的生物物理指标，我们发现：(1)2000 - 2020年中国可以满足世界经济论坛的基本需求，但只有水和土地供应的生态系统可以在SJS内运行。2010年，碳排放量超过了固存能力，而磷净化ES一直不安全。(2)城市居民在生态和社会成就感方面表现出尺度差异，并随城市化进程发生变化。总体而言，中国没有一个省份能够在所有sjs中持续运行。(3)在城市化进程中，大部分省份的生态保护和生产实践的改善扩大了SJS的规模，但总需求的持续增加未能引导区域向更安全的空间发展。我们的框架强调了处于不同城市化阶段的地区实现安全和正义的共同但有区别的途径。它还为旨在追求城市增长同时保持生态保护和社会正义，最终实现可持续发展的地区提供了适用的解决方案。

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引用次数: 0

Same soybean policy, different responses of agricultural systems: Comparing effectiveness of cropping pattern adjusting in state farms and rural household farms of Heilongjiang, China 相同的大豆政策，不同的农业系统响应：黑龙江国有农场与家庭农场种植格局调整效果比较

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100330

Xi Chen , Jinwei Dong , Zhichao Li , Li Sun , Chuantao Ren , Guoming Du , Yuanyuan Di , Nanshan You , Xiaoyong Liao

State farms, although a minority in China’s agricultural sector, play a critical role in regions like Heilongjiang, leading national food production. However, how state farms (SFs) and rural household farms (RFs) respond to food policies, especially the 2017 soybean subsidy policy (post-Sino–U.S. trade war) and the 2019 soybean revitalization policy, remains unclear. This study examines changes in cropping patterns on SFs and RFs in Heilongjiang from 2013 to 2022 using annual crop maps. We find that SFs, with larger and more clustered fields, responded more effectively to the soybean policies: soybean acreage recovery (2019–2021) reached 91.51 % of pre-trade war levels for RFs and 98.2 % for SFs; following the revitalization policy, maize-soybean rotations were implemented four times in 62.3 % of SFs and 45.4 % of RFs. These results highlight the influence of global trade and agricultural policies on cropland management, providing critical insights into sustainable practices and food security across different agricultural systems.

国有农场虽然在中国农业中只占少数，但在黑龙江等引领全国粮食生产的地区发挥着关键作用。然而，国有农场（SFs）和农村家庭农场（RFs）如何应对粮食政策，特别是2017年大豆补贴政策（后中美）。贸易战)和2019年的大豆振兴政策，目前尚不清楚。利用年际作物分布图，研究了2013 - 2022年黑龙江省森林森林和森林森林的种植格局变化。研究发现，拥有更大、更密集农田的森林保护区对大豆政策的反应更有效：2019-2021年，大豆种植面积恢复达到了贸易战前水平的91.51%，森林保护区达到了98.2%；在振兴政策实施后，62.3%的顺田区和45.4%的顺田区实行了4次玉米-大豆轮作。这些结果突出了全球贸易和农业政策对农田管理的影响，为不同农业系统的可持续做法和粮食安全提供了重要见解。

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引用次数: 0

Global patterns and determinants of erosion-induced soil carbon translocation 侵蚀引起的土壤碳迁移的全球模式和决定因素

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100328

Fangli Wei , Lanhui Wang , Lizhi Jia , Yuanyuan Huang

Soil erosion is a critical process influencing the global carbon cycle. However, erosion-induced carbon changes remain inadequately understood, particularly for soil inorganic carbon (SIC). There is also limited knowledge about the factors influencing soil carbon dynamics during erosion processes. Here we quantify the global translocation of soil organic carbon (SOC) and SIC due to soil erosion using data-driven global soil carbon estimates combined with a soil erosion map derived from the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. Our analysis reveals that global SIC and SOC translocations from soil erosion are 107.1 Tg C yr⁻¹ and 898.4 Tg C yr⁻¹, respectively. These translocations exhibit distinct patterns across aridity gradients and different biomes and soil types, with SIC translocation increasing while SOC translocation decreasing with aridity. Croplands exhibit significantly higher soil carbon translocation compared to natural vegetation, with SIC translocation being 2.41 times higher and SOC translocation 0.65 times higher than in forests. Topographic features (slope length and steepness) predominantly determine soil carbon translocation during erosion, with steeper and longer slopes exacerbating erosion and subsequent SIC/SOC translocation. Land use change, particularly agricultural practices, is also a critical driver. Our findings provide valuable insights into the factors influencing SIC and SOC translocation, enhancing our understanding of the global patterns and determinants of erosion-induced soil carbon dynamics.

土壤侵蚀是影响全球碳循环的重要过程。然而，对侵蚀引起的碳变化，特别是土壤无机碳（SIC）的变化仍然知之甚少。对侵蚀过程中影响土壤碳动态的因素也知之甚少。本文利用数据驱动的全球土壤碳估算，结合修正通用土壤流失方程（RUSLE）模型得出的土壤侵蚀图，量化了土壤侵蚀导致的土壤有机碳（SOC）和SIC的全球迁移。分析结果表明，土壤侵蚀导致的全球碳化硅和有机碳迁移量分别为107.1 Tg C yr - 1和898.4 Tg C yr - 1。这些迁移在不同的干旱梯度、不同的生物群落和土壤类型中表现出不同的模式，碳化硅迁移随干旱而增加，有机碳迁移随干旱而减少。农田土壤碳迁移显著高于自然植被，碳化硅迁移是森林的2.41倍，有机碳迁移是森林的0.65倍。地形特征（坡度和陡度）主要决定了侵蚀过程中土壤碳的转运，陡度和坡度越长，侵蚀越严重，碳化硅/有机碳转运也随之加剧。土地利用变化，特别是农业实践，也是一个关键的驱动因素。我们的研究结果为碳化硅和有机碳转运的影响因素提供了有价值的见解，增强了我们对侵蚀引起的土壤碳动态的全球模式和决定因素的理解。

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引用次数: 0

Quantifying water supply–demand relationship and spatial flow in Qinghai–Xizang Plateau: Case study of Lhasa River Basin 青藏高原水资源供需关系与空间流量量化研究——以拉萨河流域为例

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100329

Jun Wang , Xiaochi Liu , Xiao Zhang , Yan Gao

The Qinghai–Xizang Plateau is a primary water supply region in Asia. The Lhasa River Basin is the political, economic, and cultural core area and main cultivation area of Qinghai–Xizang Plateau and is considered ecologically fragile. With uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources, mismatched supply and demand may accentuate differences in distribution and affect the security of regional water resources. This study employed system dynamics (SD) to measure the supply and demand of water supply services and analyzed the correlation between supply and beneficiary areas by evaluating the supply and demand overlap. Moreover, the 2030 supply–demand relationship was predicted, the pattern of sustainable development of the basin is discussed, and optimization suggestions are proposed. The range of water supply service beneficiary areas in the Lhasa River Basin shows an increasing trend from 2005 to 2020. The spatial distribution of water supply in 2030 is predicted to be the same as that in 2020, while the total amount of water supply is expected to decrease. By 2030, the largest proportion of water demand will be industry, followed by agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry. Overall, there is a mismatch between water supply and demand services in the Lhasa River Basin, and it is essential to develop a reasonable water resource management and allocation policy as well as an optimized ecological management strategy for the basin through integrated planning. Here, we provide suggestions for the sustainable development and ecological environmental protection of the Lhasa River Basin.

青藏高原是亚洲的主要水源地。拉萨河流域是青藏高原政治、经济、文化的核心区和主要种植区，生态脆弱。在水资源时空分布不均匀的情况下，供需不匹配会加剧区域水资源分布差异，影响区域水资源安全。本研究采用系统动力学（SD）方法对供水服务的供给和需求进行测度，并通过评价供需重叠来分析供给区与受益区之间的相关性。并对2030年供需关系进行了预测，探讨了流域可持续发展模式，提出了优化建议。2005 - 2020年，拉萨河流域供水服务受益区范围呈增加趋势。预计2030年供水空间分布与2020年基本一致，供水总量有所减少。到2030年，工业用水需求比例最大，其次是农业、林业和畜牧业。从总体上看，拉萨河流域存在水资源供需不匹配的问题，需要通过流域综合规划制定合理的水资源管理与配置政策，优化流域生态管理战略。本文对拉萨河流域的可持续发展和生态环境保护提出了建议。

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Agricultural and socioeconomic effects of vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau, China 黄土高原植被恢复的农业和社会经济效应

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100326

Xianlei Fan , Yangjian Zhang , Jing Zhang , Edith Bai

Although Vegetation Restoration Programs (VRPs) on the Loess Plateau, China, have significantly improved the region’s ecological condition, their impact on the local economy and agriculture remain unclear. Here we used the difference-in-differences analysis to quantify the effects of the VRPs on population, economic, and agricultural aspects. Results suggest that the implementation of the VRPs increased mean county-based Gross Domestic Product by 148 % and per capita grain production by 30 %, but decreased rural labor resources by 11 %. VRPs promoted the transfer of population to the secondary industry and increased the income of local farmers. We predict that grain production will likely start to decline when the restoration area exceeds approximately 55 % of the total county area in the future. Our study suggests that while VRPs on the Loess Plateau are economically sustainable, their expansion beyond a certain threshold could jeopardize agriculture.

尽管黄土高原植被恢复项目（VRPs）显著改善了该地区的生态状况，但其对当地经济和农业的影响尚不清楚。在这里，我们使用差异中的差异分析来量化vrp对人口、经济和农业方面的影响。结果表明，实施农村农民行动计划使县域平均国内生产总值提高了148%，人均粮食产量提高了30%，但农村劳动力资源减少了11%。vrp促进了人口向第二产业的转移，增加了当地农民的收入。我们预测，未来当恢复面积超过县域总面积的55%左右时，粮食产量可能开始下降。我们的研究表明，尽管黄土高原的vrp在经济上是可持续的，但其扩张超过一定的阈值可能会危及农业。

引用次数: 0