Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.006
Jie Su, Fanhua Kong, Haiwei Yin, Michael E. Meadows, Liding Chen, Hong S. He, Hui Sun, Zhenya Li, Kejing Zhou, Bin Chen
{"title":"Essential contribution of habitats in non-protected areas to climate-driven species migration in China","authors":"Jie Su, Fanhua Kong, Haiwei Yin, Michael E. Meadows, Liding Chen, Hong S. He, Hui Sun, Zhenya Li, Kejing Zhou, Bin Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.006","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141713797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.003
Xin Dai, Lunche Wang, Jie Gong, Zigeng Niu, Qian Cao
{"title":"Extreme weather characteristics and influences on urban ecosystem services in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration","authors":"Xin Dai, Lunche Wang, Jie Gong, Zigeng Niu, Qian Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.003","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141706548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Declining suitability for conversion of drylands to paddy fields in Northeast China: Impact of future climate and socio-economic changes","authors":"Jiacheng Qian, Huafu Zhao, Xiaoxiao Wang, Tao Wang, Zhe Feng, Congjie Cao, Xiao Li, Aihui Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.004","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141716496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.007
Xunhuan Li, Yang Zhou
{"title":"Targeted poverty alleviation promotes sustainable socio-economic and ecological development in China's poor areas","authors":"Xunhuan Li, Yang Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.007","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141697892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-30DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.002
Urban and peri‑urban ecosystems are subjected to an intense impact. The demand for ecosystem services (ES) is higher in these areas. Nevertheless, despite the anthropogenic pressures, urban and peri‑urban ecosystems supply important ES. Mapping is a crucial exercise to understand ES dynamics in these environments better. This work aims to systematically review mapping ES in urban and peri‑urban areas studies, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-alpha Methods. A total of 207 studies were selected. The results show increased work between 2011 and 2023, mainly conducted in Europe and China. Most work were developed in urban areas and did not follow an established ES classification. Most studies focused on the ES supply dimension, the regulation and maintenance section. Regarding provisioning ES, most studies focused on Cultivating terrestrial plants for nutrition, regulating and maintaining Atmospheric composition and conditions, and for cultural ES on Physical and experiential interactions with the natural environment. Quantitative methods were mostly applied following Indicator-based (secondary data: biophysical, socio-economic) models. Very few work validated the outputs. Several studies forecasted ES, primarily based on land use changes using CA-Markov approaches. This study provides an overview of the most mapped urban and peri‑urban ES globally, the areas where more studies need to be conducted, and the methods developed.
{"title":"Mapping ecosystem services in urban and peri‑urban areas. A systematic review","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urban and peri‑urban ecosystems are subjected to an intense impact. The demand for ecosystem services (ES) is higher in these areas. Nevertheless, despite the anthropogenic pressures, urban and peri‑urban ecosystems supply important ES. Mapping is a crucial exercise to understand ES dynamics in these environments better. This work aims to systematically review mapping ES in urban and peri‑urban areas studies, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-alpha Methods. A total of 207 studies were selected. The results show increased work between 2011 and 2023, mainly conducted in Europe and China. Most work were developed in urban areas and did not follow an established ES classification. Most studies focused on the ES supply dimension, the regulation and maintenance section. Regarding provisioning ES, most studies focused on <em>Cultivating terrestrial plants for nutrition</em>, regulating and maintainin<em>g Atmospheric composition and conditions</em>, and for cultural ES on <em>Physical and experiential interactions with the natural environment</em>. Quantitative methods were mostly applied following Indicator-based (secondary data: biophysical, socio-economic) models. Very few work validated the outputs. Several studies forecasted ES, primarily based on land use changes using CA-Markov approaches. This study provides an overview of the most mapped urban and peri‑urban ES globally, the areas where more studies need to be conducted, and the methods developed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000440/pdfft?md5=e7740aa23e1d40dd172a7c5225018a53&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000440-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141629929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-22DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.001
Aimee Delach, Laura A. Nunes, Alex Borowicz, Theodore C. Weber
Designation of critical habitat is an important conservation tool for species listed as threatened or endangered under the United States (U.S.) Endangered Species Act (ESA). While this is an important protective mechanism, lands designated as critical habitat could still be subject to degradation and fragmentation if they are not also in a protected status that prioritizes biodiversity conservation. Additionally, most designations of critical habitat do not explicitly take climate change into account. The objective of our study was to determine whether and to what extent critical habitats for species listed under the ESA are located within protected areas and areas previously identified as climate refugia or climate corridors, to inform management strategies to better conserve and recover these species. We mapped the designated critical habitats of 153 ESA-listed species and measured their overlap with previously-identified areas of climate refugia and corridors (CRC), and also with lands designated as nature-protected by U.S. Geological Survey’s Gap Analysis Project (GAP Status 1 or 2) and working lands with wildlife habitat potential (GAP Status 3). Only 18 % of all designated critical habitat is located on lands that are both in CRC and nature-protected, and only 9 % of species had over half of their designated critical habitats in such lands. 84 % of species had <25 % overlap of their critical habitats with these areas. Critical habitats may therefore not fulfill their essential role of helping imperiled species persist and recover.
{"title":"Designated critical habitats for U.S. imperiled species are not protected from climate and land-use change","authors":"Aimee Delach, Laura A. Nunes, Alex Borowicz, Theodore C. Weber","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Designation of critical habitat is an important conservation tool for species listed as threatened or endangered under the United States (U.S.) Endangered Species Act (ESA). While this is an important protective mechanism, lands designated as critical habitat could still be subject to degradation and fragmentation if they are not also in a protected status that prioritizes biodiversity conservation. Additionally, most designations of critical habitat do not explicitly take climate change into account. The objective of our study was to determine whether and to what extent critical habitats for species listed under the ESA are located within protected areas and areas previously identified as climate refugia or climate corridors, to inform management strategies to better conserve and recover these species. We mapped the designated critical habitats of 153 ESA-listed species and measured their overlap with previously-identified areas of climate refugia and corridors (CRC), and also with lands designated as nature-protected by U.S. Geological Survey’s Gap Analysis Project (GAP Status 1 or 2) and working lands with wildlife habitat potential (GAP Status 3). Only 18 % of all designated critical habitat is located on lands that are both in CRC and nature-protected, and only 9 % of species had over half of their designated critical habitats in such lands. 84 % of species had <25 % overlap of their critical habitats with these areas. Critical habitats may therefore not fulfill their essential role of helping imperiled species persist and recover.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000439/pdfft?md5=b8985fe14403d688bd4414d99eb79ce9&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000439-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141543716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-13DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.002
Karl Samuelsson , S. Anders Brandt , Stephan Barthel , Noah Linder , Nancy Joy Lim , David Hallman , Matteo Giusti
Two key goals for sustainable spatial planning are to promote low-carbon travel in daily life and to enhance human wellbeing through diverse human-environment interactions. Yet, the integration of these goals has been underexplored. This study investigates the potential for experiential diversity via active travel in different residential contexts within the Gävle city-region, Sweden. Over 15 months, we collected spatiotemporal data from 165 participants, analyzing 4,362 reported experiences and 13,192 GPS-derived travel trajectories. Our analysis uncovered a significant spatial discrepancy: while the travelled distances to locations of positive experiences typically ranged from 1.5 km to 5 km, active travel predominated only within 1.5 km. This discrepancy persisted across urban, suburban, and peripheral contexts. Although residents in different contexts reported the same types of experiences, urban dwellers travelled about 50 % farther for nature experiences compared with other positive experiences, whereas peripheral dwellers travelled twice the distance for urbanicity experiences compared with other positive experiences. Consequently, urban residents mostly relied on active travel for urbanicity experiences and motorised travel for nature experiences, with the reverse trend observed among peripheral dwellers. These results illustrate the importance of spatial scale for promoting diverse positive experiences via active travel, regardless of residential context. Effective planning strategies may include enhancing environmental diversity near homes and developing infrastructure that favours active over motorised travel for short to moderate distances.
{"title":"Diverse experiences by active travel for carbon neutrality: A longitudinal study of residential context, daily travel and experience types","authors":"Karl Samuelsson , S. Anders Brandt , Stephan Barthel , Noah Linder , Nancy Joy Lim , David Hallman , Matteo Giusti","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Two key goals for sustainable spatial planning are to promote low-carbon travel in daily life and to enhance human wellbeing through diverse human-environment interactions. Yet, the integration of these goals has been underexplored. This study investigates the potential for experiential diversity via active travel in different residential contexts within the Gävle city-region, Sweden. Over 15 months, we collected spatiotemporal data from 165 participants, analyzing 4,362 reported experiences and 13,192 GPS-derived travel trajectories. Our analysis uncovered a significant spatial discrepancy: while the travelled distances to locations of positive experiences typically ranged from 1.5 km to 5 km, active travel predominated only within 1.5 km. This discrepancy persisted across urban, suburban, and peripheral contexts. Although residents in different contexts reported the same types of experiences, urban dwellers travelled about 50 % farther for nature experiences compared with other positive experiences, whereas peripheral dwellers travelled twice the distance for urbanicity experiences compared with other positive experiences. Consequently, urban residents mostly relied on active travel for urbanicity experiences and motorised travel for nature experiences, with the reverse trend observed among peripheral dwellers. These results illustrate the importance of spatial scale for promoting diverse positive experiences via active travel, regardless of residential context. Effective planning strategies may include enhancing environmental diversity near homes and developing infrastructure that favours active over motorised travel for short to moderate distances.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000415/pdfft?md5=40eaa0225b369cc82a9276e8da94cb82&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000415-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141404061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-13DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.003
Maxime Malbranque, Xiangping Hu, Francesco Cherubini
Revegetation of former agricultural land is a key option for climate change mitigation and nature conservation. Expansion and abandonment of agricultural land is typically influenced by trends in diets and agricultural intensification, which are two key parameters in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Datasets mapping future land dynamics under different SSPs and climate change mitigation targets stem from different scenario assumptions, land data and modelling frameworks. This study aims to determine the role that these three factors play in the estimates of the evolution of cropland and pastureland in future SSPs under different climate scenarios from four main datasets largely used in the climate and land surface studies. The datasets largely agree with the representation of cropland at present-day conditions, but the identification of pastureland is ambiguous and shows large discrepancies due to the lack of a unique land-use category. Differences occur with future projections, even for the same SSP and climate target. Accounting for CO2 sequestration from revegetation of abandoned agricultural land and CO2 emissions from forest clearance due to agricultural expansion shows a net reduction in vegetation carbon stock for most SSPs considered, except SSP1. However, different datasets give differences in estimates, even when representative of the same scenario. With SSP1, the cumulative increase in carbon stock until 2050 is 3.3 GtC for one dataset, and more than double for another. Our study calls for a common classification system with improved detection of pastureland to harmonize projections and reduce variability of outcomes in environmental studies.
{"title":"Comparing trends of crop and pasture in future land-use scenarios for climate change mitigation","authors":"Maxime Malbranque, Xiangping Hu, Francesco Cherubini","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Revegetation of former agricultural land is a key option for climate change mitigation and nature conservation. Expansion and abandonment of agricultural land is typically influenced by trends in diets and agricultural intensification, which are two key parameters in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Datasets mapping future land dynamics under different SSPs and climate change mitigation targets stem from different scenario assumptions, land data and modelling frameworks. This study aims to determine the role that these three factors play in the estimates of the evolution of cropland and pastureland in future SSPs under different climate scenarios from four main datasets largely used in the climate and land surface studies. The datasets largely agree with the representation of cropland at present-day conditions, but the identification of pastureland is ambiguous and shows large discrepancies due to the lack of a unique land-use category. Differences occur with future projections, even for the same SSP and climate target. Accounting for CO<sub>2</sub> sequestration from revegetation of abandoned agricultural land and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from forest clearance due to agricultural expansion shows a net reduction in vegetation carbon stock for most SSPs considered, except SSP1. However, different datasets give differences in estimates, even when representative of the same scenario. With SSP1, the cumulative increase in carbon stock until 2050 is 3.3 GtC for one dataset, and more than double for another. Our study calls for a common classification system with improved detection of pastureland to harmonize projections and reduce variability of outcomes in environmental studies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000427/pdfft?md5=2ffc5c1b42056d2ac58d828555aa968f&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000427-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141406950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sustainable rural development is predicated on a delicate balance between rural territorial functions and ecological constraints. While various functions can catalyze economic growth in rural settings, aligning them with inherent ecological variables is essential. An exhaustive analysis of Beijing’s Pinggu District elucidated specific supply-demand thresholds and evaluated the adaptability of current utilization within these boundaries, culminating in a novel optimization strategy. Notably, while locals place significant emphasis on production functions, the area’s topography and soil characteristics present palpable challenges to achieving these goals. We discovered that ‘shackle type’ predominantly characterize individual rural territorial functions, while ‘diversified weak function optimization type’ define multifunctional aspects, showcasing varied development paths and uncovering potential strategies for sustainable improvement. This study contributes a groundbreaking perspective to sustainable rural development, offering key insights and strategic recommendations for policy formulation.
{"title":"Unpacking the ‘supply-utilization-demand’ interplay: Keys to multifunctional sustainability in rural China","authors":"Yanbo Qu , Lingyun Zhan , Qingqing Zhang , Meijing Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Sustainable rural development is predicated on a delicate balance between rural territorial functions and ecological constraints. While various functions can catalyze economic growth in rural settings, aligning them with inherent ecological variables is essential. An exhaustive analysis of Beijing’s Pinggu District elucidated specific supply-demand thresholds and evaluated the adaptability of current utilization within these boundaries, culminating in a novel optimization strategy. Notably, while locals place significant emphasis on production functions, the area’s topography and soil characteristics present palpable challenges to achieving these goals. We discovered that ‘shackle type’ predominantly characterize individual rural territorial functions, while ‘diversified weak function optimization type’ define multifunctional aspects, showcasing varied development paths and uncovering potential strategies for sustainable improvement. This study contributes a groundbreaking perspective to sustainable rural development, offering key insights and strategic recommendations for policy formulation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000403/pdfft?md5=ff50a612340622e0dd84383ab29c555b&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000403-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141324217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-20DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.005
Huiqian Yu , Nan Lu , Bojie Fu , Lu Zhang , Shufen Pan
Ecological restoration projects implemented over the past 20 years have substantially increased forest coverage in China, but the high tree mortality of new afforestation forest remains a challenging but unsolved problem. It is still not clear how much vegetation can be sustained by the forest lands with given water, energy and soil conditions, i.e., the carrying capacity for vegetation (CCV) of forest lands, which is the prerequisite for planning and implementing forest restoration projects. Here, we used a simplified method to evaluate the CCV across forest lands nationwide. Specifically, based on leaf area index (LAI) dataset, we use boosted regression tree and multiple linear regression model to analyze the CCV during 2001–2020 and 2021–2030 and explore the contribution of environmental factors. We find that there are three typical regions with lower CCV located in the Loess Plateau and the southern region of the Inner Mongolia Plateau, the Hengduan Mountain region, and the Tianshan Mountains. More importantly, the vegetation in the regions near the dry-wet climate transition zone show excess local carrying capacity for vegetation over the past two decades and they are more susceptible to potential climatic stress. In comparison, in the Greater Khingan Mountains and Hengduan Mountains, there is high potential to improve the forest growth. Temperature, precipitation and soil affects the CCV by shaping the vegetation in the optimal range. This indicates that more consideration should be given to restrictions of regional environmental constraints when planning afforestation and forest management. This study has important implications for guiding future forest scheme in China.
{"title":"The carrying capacity for vegetation of forest land across China: Near real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting based on satellite observation","authors":"Huiqian Yu , Nan Lu , Bojie Fu , Lu Zhang , Shufen Pan","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Ecological restoration projects implemented over the past 20 years have substantially increased forest coverage in China, but the high tree mortality of new afforestation forest remains a challenging but unsolved problem. It is still not clear how much vegetation can be sustained by the forest lands with given water, energy and soil conditions, i.e., the carrying capacity for vegetation (CCV) of forest lands, which is the prerequisite for planning and implementing forest restoration projects. Here, we used a simplified method to evaluate the CCV across forest lands nationwide. Specifically, based on leaf area index (LAI) dataset, we use boosted regression tree and multiple linear regression model to analyze the CCV during 2001–2020 and 2021–2030 and explore the contribution of environmental factors. We find that there are three typical regions with lower CCV located in the Loess Plateau and the southern region of the Inner Mongolia Plateau, the Hengduan Mountain region, and the Tianshan Mountains. More importantly, the vegetation in the regions near the dry-wet climate transition zone show excess local carrying capacity for vegetation over the past two decades and they are more susceptible to potential climatic stress. In comparison, in the Greater Khingan Mountains and Hengduan Mountains, there is high potential to improve the forest growth. Temperature, precipitation and soil affects the CCV by shaping the vegetation in the optimal range. This indicates that more consideration should be given to restrictions of regional environmental constraints when planning afforestation and forest management. This study has important implications for guiding future forest scheme in China.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2024-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000397/pdfft?md5=cc1e19a099d9f17f18abb448e4430f8a&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000397-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141143329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}