首页 > 最新文献

Geography and Sustainability最新文献

英文 中文
Residents’ perceptions of ecosystem services in an urbanizing basin: A case study in the Guanting Reservoir basin, China 城市化流域居民对生态系统服务的认知:中国官厅水库流域案例研究
IF 9.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.004
Yansong Bai , Qingxu Huang , Luis Inostroza , Haoran Xu , Dan Yin , Ziwen Liu , Ling Zhang , Fangjin Xu

Understanding stakeholders’ differences in perceptions of ecosystem services (ES) is crucial for guiding ecological conservation and planning. However, the variations of ES perception amongst different types of residents in urbanizing areas along an urban-rural gradient are still poorly understood. Combining a questionnaire-based survey, redundancy analysis, and statistical tests, we delineated the urban-rural gradient according to local residents’ socio-economic characteristics, and investigated the differences in local residents’ perceptions of ES and potential factors affecting them in the Guanting Reservoir basin, a rapidly urbanizing basin in China. The results showed that residents living in urban-rural transitional areas attached great importance to provisioning services of providing food and domestic water, regulating services of carbon sequestration and air purification, and cultural services of providing education and training, which were 0.7%–13.1%, 0.7%–9.1% and 2.5%–21.2% higher than that of residents in other areas, respectively. Age and occupation were major factors affecting residents’ perceptions. In terms of land-use types that deliver ES, the difference in perceptions of ES delivered by grassland was the greatest amongst residents. Our results support recommendations for policymakers to take into account the stakeholders’ diverse perceptions, thus promoting residents’ sense of gain on ES.

了解利益相关者对生态系统服务(ES)认知的差异对于指导生态保护和规划至关重要。然而,人们对城市化地区不同类型居民在城乡梯度上对生态系统服务认知的差异还知之甚少。结合问卷调查、冗余分析和统计检验,我们根据当地居民的社会经济特征划分了城乡梯度,并在中国快速城市化的官厅水库流域调查了当地居民对生态服务的认知差异及其潜在影响因素。结果表明,城乡过渡区居民非常重视提供食物和生活用水的供给服务、固碳和净化空气的调节服务以及提供教育和培训的文化服务,分别比其他地区居民高出 0.7%-13.1%、0.7%-9.1% 和 2.5%-21.2%。年龄和职业是影响居民认知的主要因素。就提供生态服务的土地利用类型而言,居民对草地提供的生态服务的认知差异最大。我们的研究结果为政策制定者提供了支持,建议他们考虑利益相关者的不同看法,从而促进居民对生态系统服务的获得感。
{"title":"Residents’ perceptions of ecosystem services in an urbanizing basin: A case study in the Guanting Reservoir basin, China","authors":"Yansong Bai ,&nbsp;Qingxu Huang ,&nbsp;Luis Inostroza ,&nbsp;Haoran Xu ,&nbsp;Dan Yin ,&nbsp;Ziwen Liu ,&nbsp;Ling Zhang ,&nbsp;Fangjin Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Understanding stakeholders’ differences in perceptions of ecosystem services (ES) is crucial for guiding ecological conservation and planning. However, the variations of ES perception amongst different types of residents in urbanizing areas along an urban-rural gradient are still poorly understood. Combining a questionnaire-based survey, redundancy analysis, and statistical tests, we delineated the urban-rural gradient according to local residents’ socio-economic characteristics, and investigated the differences in local residents’ perceptions of ES and potential factors affecting them in the Guanting Reservoir basin, a rapidly urbanizing basin in China. The results showed that residents living in urban-rural transitional areas attached great importance to provisioning services of providing food and domestic water, regulating services of carbon sequestration and air purification, and cultural services of providing education and training, which were 0.7%–13.1%, 0.7%–9.1% and 2.5%–21.2% higher than that of residents in other areas, respectively. Age and occupation were major factors affecting residents’ perceptions. In terms of land-use types that deliver ES, the difference in perceptions of ES delivered by grassland was the greatest amongst residents. Our results support recommendations for policymakers to take into account the stakeholders’ diverse perceptions, thus promoting residents’ sense of gain on ES.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2024-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000385/pdfft?md5=bf965fb50878e18162125b18b64d9031&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000385-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141025674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Recognizing ecosystem service's contribution to SDGs: Ecological foundation of sustainable development 认识生态系统服务对可持续发展目标的贡献:可持续发展的生态基础
IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2024-05-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.001

There is less than half the time left to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and progress toward SDGs is obviously insufficient. The contribution of ecosystem services (ES) to SDGs realization has received extensive attentions, but systematic generalization and recognition are still lacking. Based on a review of the progress and challenge of sustainable development, this study summarized ES’s potential contribution to 17 SDGs, and systematically reviewed empirical researches focused on the ES’s contribution to SDGs based on the RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Syntheses (ROSES). The results showed that from the 1960s to the 2020s, the ES’s contribution has gradually become more important in sustainable development. ES has potential contribution to all SDGs, but the contribution to different SDGs varies. In the empirical study, ES’s contribution to SDG2, SDG6, SDG13, and SDG15 were strongly focused. ES’s contribution to SDG4, SDG5, SDG10, SDG16, and SDG17 were weakly focused. Most researches have explored the ES’s contribution to SDGs based on ES supply at a single scale, lacking attentions to ES demand and scale differences, and insufficient attentions to intervention factors affecting the ES’s contribution to SDGs. Faced with the above deficiencies, future research could deepen the exploration of ES’s contribution to SDGs from the following four perspectives: clarifying true contributions, exploring leverage point, integrating multi-scale differences, and focusing on intervention factors.

距离联合国可持续发展目标(SDGs)的实现只剩下不到一半的时间,而实现可持续发展目标的进展明显不足。生态系统服务(ES)对实现可持续发展目标的贡献已受到广泛关注,但仍缺乏系统的归纳和认识。本研究在回顾可持续发展的进展与挑战的基础上,总结了生态系统服务对 17 个可持续发展目标的潜在贡献,并根据系统证据综合报告标准(ROSES)系统地回顾了以生态系统服务对可持续发展目标的贡献为重点的实证研究。结果表明,从 20 世纪 60 年代到 2020 年代,ES 在可持续发展中的贡献逐渐变得更加重要。环境科学对所有可持续发展目标都有潜在贡献,但对不同可持续发展目标的贡献各不相同。在实证研究中,ES 对 SDG2、SDG6、SDG13 和 SDG15 的贡献非常突出。ES 对 SDG4、SDG5、SDG10、SDG16 和 SDG17 的贡献较弱。大多数研究都是基于单一尺度的 ES 供给来探讨 ES 对 SDGs 的贡献,缺乏对 ES 需求和尺度差异的关注,对影响 ES 对 SDGs 贡献的干预因素关注不足。面对上述不足,未来的研究可以从以下四个方面深化ES对可持续发展目标贡献的探索:明确真实贡献、探索杠杆点、整合多尺度差异、关注干预因素。
{"title":"Recognizing ecosystem service's contribution to SDGs: Ecological foundation of sustainable development","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>There is less than half the time left to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and progress toward SDGs is obviously insufficient. The contribution of ecosystem services (ES) to SDGs realization has received extensive attentions, but systematic generalization and recognition are still lacking. Based on a review of the progress and challenge of sustainable development, this study summarized ES’s potential contribution to 17 SDGs, and systematically reviewed empirical researches focused on the ES’s contribution to SDGs based on the RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Syntheses (ROSES). The results showed that from the 1960s to the 2020s, the ES’s contribution has gradually become more important in sustainable development. ES has potential contribution to all SDGs, but the contribution to different SDGs varies. In the empirical study, ES’s contribution to SDG2, SDG6, SDG13, and SDG15 were strongly focused. ES’s contribution to SDG4, SDG5, SDG10, SDG16, and SDG17 were weakly focused. Most researches have explored the ES’s contribution to SDGs based on ES supply at a single scale, lacking attentions to ES demand and scale differences, and insufficient attentions to intervention factors affecting the ES’s contribution to SDGs. Faced with the above deficiencies, future research could deepen the exploration of ES’s contribution to SDGs from the following four perspectives: clarifying true contributions, exploring leverage point, integrating multi-scale differences, and focusing on intervention factors.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000373/pdfft?md5=9eeeaf052f93a628b39d268c43f9a859&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000373-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141029059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impacts of climate change and land cover factor on runoff in the Coastal Chinese Mainland region 气候变化和土地覆被因子对中国大陆沿海地区径流的影响
IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2024-05-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.003

The increasingly frequent storms pose significant threats to the sustainable development of coastal regions, particularly in densely populated and economically vibrant areas. Comprehending the dynamics and intricate mechanisms underlying runoff generation is crucial in the context of climate change and anthropogenic interference. Based on hydro-meteorological and land-use data from 1980 to 2018, this study investigates the runoff variation and its driving factors in the Coastal Chinese Mainland (CCM). The aims of this study are to reveal the temporal and spatial trends of runoff yield, to clarify the sensitivity of runoff in coastal cities to the integrated and individual parameters of climate change and anthropogenic interference, including precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (E0), and land cover factor (n), and to support the establishment of spatially tailored adaptation strategies. The results show that: (1) runoff has generally increased over the study period, particularly in regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, and Guangxi, while it has decreased in western Liaoning and eastern Guangdong; (2) in the northern CCM with larger aridity index, the land cover factor plays a dominant role in runoff production, while in the wetter southern CCM, precipitation is more influential, and potential evapotranspiration mainly hinders runoff generation all over CCM; (3) urban expansion tends to negatively impact n, while the loss of grasslands and shrinkage of croplands tend to undermine the value of n. To facilitate the achievement of sustainable development goals in the CCM, it is imperative to introduce a more comprehensive and theoretical framework that encompasses the natural, technical, and social dimensions of human-water systems into traditional flood regulation and water resource management. This framework should promote interdisciplinary collaboration from an integrated perspective, to bridge the administrative and watershed boundaries, to effectively address the complex challenges posed by climate change and anthropogenic activities on runoff and water resources in coastal regions, and to enhance the realization of local sustainable development goals (UN SDGs).

日益频繁的风暴对沿海地区的可持续发展构成了重大威胁,尤其是在人口稠密、经济活跃的地区。在气候变化和人为干扰的背景下,理解径流产生的动态和复杂机制至关重要。本研究基于 1980 年至 2018 年的水文气象和土地利用数据,调查了中国大陆沿海地区(CCM)的径流变化及其驱动因素。研究旨在揭示径流量的时空变化趋势,阐明沿海城市径流量对降水量(P)、潜在蒸散量(E0)和土地覆盖因子(n)等气候变化和人为干扰的综合参数和单个参数的敏感性,并为建立有空间针对性的适应策略提供支持。结果显示(1) 在研究期间,径流量普遍增加,尤其是在长江三角洲、山东和广西等地区,而在辽宁西部和广东东部则有所减少;(2)在干旱指数较大的北部 CCM,土地覆被因子对径流生成起主导作用,而在较湿润的南部 CCM,降水的影响更大,潜在蒸散对整个 CCM 的径流生成起主要阻碍作用;(3)城市扩张倾向于对 n 产生负面影响,而草地的丧失和耕地的萎缩倾向于削弱 n 值。为促进中山区可持续发展目标的实现,必须在传统的洪水调节和水资源管理中引入一个更全面的理论框架,将人类与水系统的自然、技术和社会层面纳入其中。这一框架应从综合角度促进跨学科合作,弥合行政和流域界限,有效应对气候变化和人为活动对沿海地区径流和水资源带来的复杂挑战,促进当地可持续发展目标(联合国可持续发展目标)的实现。
{"title":"Impacts of climate change and land cover factor on runoff in the Coastal Chinese Mainland region","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The increasingly frequent storms pose significant threats to the sustainable development of coastal regions, particularly in densely populated and economically vibrant areas. Comprehending the dynamics and intricate mechanisms underlying runoff generation is crucial in the context of climate change and anthropogenic interference. Based on hydro-meteorological and land-use data from 1980 to 2018, this study investigates the runoff variation and its driving factors in the Coastal Chinese Mainland (CCM). The aims of this study are to reveal the temporal and spatial trends of runoff yield, to clarify the sensitivity of runoff in coastal cities to the integrated and individual parameters of climate change and anthropogenic interference, including precipitation (<em>P</em>), potential evapotranspiration (<em>E</em><sub>0</sub>), and land cover factor (<em>n</em>), and to support the establishment of spatially tailored adaptation strategies. The results show that: (1) runoff has generally increased over the study period, particularly in regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, and Guangxi, while it has decreased in western Liaoning and eastern Guangdong; (2) in the northern CCM with larger aridity index, the land cover factor plays a dominant role in runoff production, while in the wetter southern CCM, precipitation is more influential, and potential evapotranspiration mainly hinders runoff generation all over CCM; (3) urban expansion tends to negatively impact <em>n</em>, while the loss of grasslands and shrinkage of croplands tend to undermine the value of <em>n</em>. To facilitate the achievement of sustainable development goals in the CCM, it is imperative to introduce a more comprehensive and theoretical framework that encompasses the natural, technical, and social dimensions of human-water systems into traditional flood regulation and water resource management. This framework should promote interdisciplinary collaboration from an integrated perspective, to bridge the administrative and watershed boundaries, to effectively address the complex challenges posed by climate change and anthropogenic activities on runoff and water resources in coastal regions, and to enhance the realization of local sustainable development goals (UN SDGs).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000361/pdfft?md5=87bd70acc98db75a48e48eaeef0a43b9&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000361-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141058126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Prevalence of vegetation browning in China’s drylands under climate change 气候变化下中国旱地植被褐变的普遍程度
IF 9.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.002
Li Fu , Guolong Zhang , Jianping Huang , Ming Peng , Lei Ding , Dongliang Han

Vegetation greening has long been acknowledged, but recent studies have pointed out that vegetation greening is possibly stalled or even reversed. However, detailed analyses about greening reversal or increased browning of vegetation remain scarce. In this study, we utilized the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as an indicator of vegetation to investigate the trends of vegetation greening and browning (monotonic, interruption, and reversal) through the breaks for the additive season and trend (BFAST) method across China’s drylands from 1982 to 2022. It also reveals the impacts of ecological restoration programs (ERPs) and climate change on these vegetation trends. We find that the vegetation displays an obvious pattern of east-greening and west-browning in China’s drylands. Greening trends mainly exhibits monotonic greening (29.8 %) and greening with setback (36.8 %), whereas browning shows a greening to browning reversal (19.2 %). The increase rate of greening to browning reversal is 0.0342/yr, which is apparently greater than that of greening with setback, 0.0078/yr. This research highlights that, under the background of widespread vegetation greening, vegetation browning is progressively increasing due to the effects of climate change. Furthermore, the ERPs have significantly increased vegetation coverage, with the increase rate in 2000–2022 being twice as much as that of 1982–1999 in revegetation regions. Vegetation browning in southwestern Qingzang Plateau is primarily driven by adverse climatic factors and anthropogenic disturbances, which offset the efforts of ERPs.

植被绿化早已得到承认,但最近的研究指出,植被绿化可能会停滞甚至逆转。然而,有关植被绿化逆转或褐变加剧的详细分析仍然很少。本研究利用归一化差异植被指数(NDVI)作为植被指标,通过加季和趋势断裂法(BFAST)研究了1982-2022年中国旱地植被绿化和褐化的趋势(单调、中断和逆转)。研究还揭示了生态恢复计划(ERP)和气候变化对这些植被趋势的影响。我们发现,中国旱地植被呈现出明显的东绿西棕格局。绿化趋势主要表现为单调绿化(29.8%)和退步绿化(36.8%),而褐化则表现为绿化到褐化的逆转(19.2%)。绿化到褐化逆转的增长率为 0.0342/年,明显高于后退绿化的 0.0078/年。这项研究表明,在植被普遍绿化的背景下,由于气候变化的影响,植被褐化正在逐步加剧。此外,ERP 显著增加了植被覆盖率,2000-2022 年植被重建区的植被覆盖率增加率是 1982-1999 年的两倍。青藏高原西南部植被褐化的主要原因是不利的气候因素和人为干扰,这抵消了企业资源规划的努力。
{"title":"Prevalence of vegetation browning in China’s drylands under climate change","authors":"Li Fu ,&nbsp;Guolong Zhang ,&nbsp;Jianping Huang ,&nbsp;Ming Peng ,&nbsp;Lei Ding ,&nbsp;Dongliang Han","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Vegetation greening has long been acknowledged, but recent studies have pointed out that vegetation greening is possibly stalled or even reversed. However, detailed analyses about greening reversal or increased browning of vegetation remain scarce. In this study, we utilized the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as an indicator of vegetation to investigate the trends of vegetation greening and browning (monotonic, interruption, and reversal) through the breaks for the additive season and trend (BFAST) method across China’s drylands from 1982 to 2022. It also reveals the impacts of ecological restoration programs (ERPs) and climate change on these vegetation trends. We find that the vegetation displays an obvious pattern of east-greening and west-browning in China’s drylands. Greening trends mainly exhibits monotonic greening (29.8 %) and greening with setback (36.8 %), whereas browning shows a greening to browning reversal (19.2 %). The increase rate of greening to browning reversal is 0.0342/yr, which is apparently greater than that of greening with setback, 0.0078/yr. This research highlights that, under the background of widespread vegetation greening, vegetation browning is progressively increasing due to the effects of climate change. Furthermore, the ERPs have significantly increased vegetation coverage, with the increase rate in 2000–2022 being twice as much as that of 1982–1999 in revegetation regions. Vegetation browning in southwestern Qingzang Plateau is primarily driven by adverse climatic factors and anthropogenic disturbances, which offset the efforts of ERPs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2024-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000282/pdfft?md5=12fdce16136c335948123f0c4dfe3a94&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000282-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140797151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exploring factors of disaster preparedness in UNESCO-designated heritage sites 探索教科文组织指定遗产地的备灾因素
IF 9.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.001
Emmanuel Eze , Alexander Siegmund

Increased hazards threatening the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)-designated sites and endangering cultural heritage and community well-being require attention and action. Considering the pivotal role of UNESCO sites in conservation and development, this study assessed their levels of disaster preparedness. The absence of studies assessing disaster awareness, risk perception, and preparedness among UNESCO site actors, as well as the pivotal place of preparedness within the Disaster Risk Management (DRM) cycle justifies this research. Applying the tenets of the Person-Relative-to-Event framework, we hypothesized that a strong positive correlation exists between perceived risks, resources, and disaster preparedness. To collect pertinent data, we employed an embedded mixed-method design and conducted an online questionnaire survey yielding 141 responses from 59 countries. From the results of relevant analyses, wildfires, floods, and droughts are top hazards occurring frequently in UNESCO sites, with significant concerns about pollution and habitat loss during future events. Smartphones emerged as the most available crucial DRM resource, with higher availability of DRM resources correlating positively and significantly with sites’ preparedness. Our findings contribute valuable insights to address missing links for disaster-ready and resilient UNESCO sites, promoting their preservation for future generations.

威胁联合国教育、科学及文化组织(UNESCO)指定遗址、危及文化遗产和社区福祉的灾害日益增多,需要我们予以关注并采取行动。考虑到教科文组织遗址在保护和发展中的关键作用,本研究对其备灾水平进行了评估。由于缺乏对教科文组织遗产地参与者的灾害意识、风险意识和备灾能力进行评估的研究,以及备灾能力在灾害风险管理(DRM)周期中的关键地位,因此有必要开展这项研究。根据 "人-相关-事件 "框架的原则,我们假设在感知的风险、资源和备灾之间存在很强的正相关性。为了收集相关数据,我们采用了嵌入式混合方法设计,并进行了在线问卷调查,共收到来自 59 个国家的 141 份回复。从相关分析的结果来看,野火、洪水和干旱是联合国教科文组织遗产地经常发生的主要灾害,而在未来灾害发生时,人们对污染和栖息地丧失也非常担忧。智能手机是最重要的灾害风险管理资源,灾害风险管理资源的可用性与遗址的防灾准备程度呈显著正相关。我们的研究结果为解决教科文组织遗址备灾和抗灾能力的缺失环节提供了有价值的见解,有助于为子孙后代保护这些遗址。
{"title":"Exploring factors of disaster preparedness in UNESCO-designated heritage sites","authors":"Emmanuel Eze ,&nbsp;Alexander Siegmund","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Increased hazards threatening the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)-designated sites and endangering cultural heritage and community well-being require attention and action. Considering the pivotal role of UNESCO sites in conservation and development, this study assessed their levels of disaster preparedness. The absence of studies assessing disaster awareness, risk perception, and preparedness among UNESCO site actors, as well as the pivotal place of preparedness within the Disaster Risk Management (DRM) cycle justifies this research. Applying the tenets of the Person-Relative-to-Event framework, we hypothesized that a strong positive correlation exists between perceived risks, resources, and disaster preparedness. To collect pertinent data, we employed an embedded mixed-method design and conducted an online questionnaire survey yielding 141 responses from 59 countries. From the results of relevant analyses, wildfires, floods, and droughts are top hazards occurring frequently in UNESCO sites, with significant concerns about pollution and habitat loss during future events. Smartphones emerged as the most available crucial DRM resource, with higher availability of DRM resources correlating positively and significantly with sites’ preparedness. Our findings contribute valuable insights to address missing links for disaster-ready and resilient UNESCO sites, promoting their preservation for future generations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2024-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000270/pdfft?md5=af3135e394d0f02d2345e44aacf08217&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000270-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140764740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Urbanity mapping reveals the complexity, diffuseness, diversity, and connectivity of urbanized areas 城市分布图揭示了城市化地区的复杂性、分散性、多样性和连通性
IF 9.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.03.004
Dawa Zhaxi , Weiqi Zhou , Steward T. A. Pickett , Chengmeng Guo , Yang Yao

There are urgent calls for new approaches to map the global urban conditions of complexity, diffuseness, diversity, and connectivity. However, existing methods mostly focus on mapping urbanized areas as bio physical entities. Here, based on the continuum of urbanity framework, we developed an approach for cross-scale urbanity mapping from town to city and urban megaregion with different spatial resolutions using the Google Earth Engine. This approach was developed based on multi-source remote sensing data, Points of Interest – Open Street Map (POIs-OSM) big data, and the random forest regression model. This approach is scale-independent and revealed significant spatial variations in urbanity, underscoring differences in urbanization patterns across megaregions and between urban and rural areas. Urbanity was observed transcending traditional urban boundaries, diffusing into rural settlements within non-urban locales. The finding of urbanity in rural communities far from urban areas challenges the gradient theory of urban-rural development and distribution. By mapping livelihoods, lifestyles, and connectivity simultaneously, urbanity maps present a more comprehensive characterization of the complexity, diffuseness, diversity, and connectivity of urbanized areas than that by land cover or population density alone. It helps enhance the understanding of urbanization beyond biophysical form. This approach can provide a multifaceted understanding of urbanization, and thereby insights on urban and regional sustainability.

人们迫切要求采用新的方法来测绘全球城市的复杂性、分散性、多样性和连通性。然而,现有方法大多侧重于绘制城市化地区的生物物理实体。在此,我们以城市连续性框架为基础,利用谷歌地球引擎开发了一种方法,用于绘制从城镇到城市以及不同空间分辨率的城市特大区域的跨尺度城市地图。该方法基于多源遥感数据、兴趣点-开放街道地图(POIs-OSM)大数据和随机森林回归模型。这种方法与规模无关,揭示了城市化在空间上的显著差异,强调了特大区域之间以及城市和农村地区之间城市化模式的不同。据观察,城市化超越了传统的城市边界,扩散到非城市地区的农村住区。在远离城市地区的农村社区发现城市化现象,这对城乡发展和分布的梯度理论提出了挑战。通过同时绘制生计、生活方式和连通性地图,城市化地图对城市化地区的复杂性、分散性、多样性和连通性的描述比单纯的土地覆盖或人口密度更全面。它有助于加深对城市化的理解,使其超越生物物理形态。这种方法可以提供对城市化的多层面理解,从而为城市和区域的可持续发展提供启示。
{"title":"Urbanity mapping reveals the complexity, diffuseness, diversity, and connectivity of urbanized areas","authors":"Dawa Zhaxi ,&nbsp;Weiqi Zhou ,&nbsp;Steward T. A. Pickett ,&nbsp;Chengmeng Guo ,&nbsp;Yang Yao","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.03.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.03.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>There are urgent calls for new approaches to map the global urban conditions of complexity, diffuseness, diversity, and connectivity. However, existing methods mostly focus on mapping urbanized areas as bio physical entities. Here, based on the continuum of urbanity framework, we developed an approach for cross-scale urbanity mapping from town to city and urban megaregion with different spatial resolutions using the Google Earth Engine. This approach was developed based on multi-source remote sensing data, Points of Interest – Open Street Map (POIs-OSM) big data, and the random forest regression model. This approach is scale-independent and revealed significant spatial variations in urbanity, underscoring differences in urbanization patterns across megaregions and between urban and rural areas. Urbanity was observed transcending traditional urban boundaries, diffusing into rural settlements within non-urban locales. The finding of urbanity in rural communities far from urban areas challenges the gradient theory of urban-rural development and distribution. By mapping livelihoods, lifestyles, and connectivity simultaneously, urbanity maps present a more comprehensive characterization of the complexity, diffuseness, diversity, and connectivity of urbanized areas than that by land cover or population density alone. It helps enhance the understanding of urbanization beyond biophysical form. This approach can provide a multifaceted understanding of urbanization, and thereby insights on urban and regional sustainability.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000269/pdfft?md5=ef8bc55df7b0cac2654977dffdc5a044&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000269-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140781873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sustainable land management in Mali 马里的可持续土地管理
IF 9.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.03.003
Karim Nchare , Marcel Vitouley , Richard Mbih

This study uses logistic and Poisson regression models to examine the factors influencing the adoption of sustainable land management (SLM) practices in Mali using two rounds of the nationally representative survey Enquête Agricole de Conjoncture Intégrée aux Conditions de Vie des Ménages. The SLMs considered include the application of organic fertilizers, the application of inorganic fertilizers, the use of improved seeds, and the practice of intercropping. On average the application of organic fertilizers (39.2%), and inorganic fertilizers (28.7%) are the most frequent SLM practices among Malian farmers, and between 2014 and 2017, we observe a decline in the practice of intercropping. The regression results show that farmers’ adoption of different SLMs is significantly associated with biophysical factors (average temperature, climate type, plot size, plot shape, and location), demographic factors (age, gender, education, household size), and socioeconomic factors (number of cultivated plots, livelihood diversification, type of crop grown, market access, credit access, economic shocks, and social capital). Our findings suggest that policymakers and agricultural development agencies in Mali need to adopt a multidimensional policy framework to unlock the untapped potential of SLM practices in promoting sustainable agriculture and food security.

本研究使用逻辑回归模型和泊松回归模型,通过两轮具有全国代表性的 "马里农村生活条件综合调查",研究了马里采用可持续土地管理(SLM)方法的影响因素。所考虑的可持续土地管理包括施用有机肥料、施用无机肥料、使用改良种子和间作。平均而言,施用有机肥料(39.2%)和无机肥料(28.7%)是马里农民最常采用的可持续土地管理方法。回归结果显示,农民采用不同的可持续土地管理方法与生物物理因素(平均气温、气候类型、地块大小、地块形状和位置)、人口因素(年龄、性别、教育程度、家庭规模)和社会经济因素(耕地数量、生计多样化、种植作物类型、市场准入、信贷渠道、经济冲击和社会资本)显著相关。我们的研究结果表明,马里的政策制定者和农业发展机构需要采用多维政策框架,以释放可持续土地管理实践在促进可持续农业和粮食安全方面尚未开发的潜力。
{"title":"Sustainable land management in Mali","authors":"Karim Nchare ,&nbsp;Marcel Vitouley ,&nbsp;Richard Mbih","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.03.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.03.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study uses logistic and Poisson regression models to examine the factors influencing the adoption of sustainable land management (SLM) practices in Mali using two rounds of the nationally representative survey Enquête Agricole de Conjoncture Intégrée aux Conditions de Vie des Ménages. The SLMs considered include the application of organic fertilizers, the application of inorganic fertilizers, the use of improved seeds, and the practice of intercropping. On average the application of organic fertilizers (39.2%), and inorganic fertilizers (28.7%) are the most frequent SLM practices among Malian farmers, and between 2014 and 2017, we observe a decline in the practice of intercropping. The regression results show that farmers’ adoption of different SLMs is significantly associated with biophysical factors (average temperature, climate type, plot size, plot shape, and location), demographic factors (age, gender, education, household size), and socioeconomic factors (number of cultivated plots, livelihood diversification, type of crop grown, market access, credit access, economic shocks, and social capital). Our findings suggest that policymakers and agricultural development agencies in Mali need to adopt a multidimensional policy framework to unlock the untapped potential of SLM practices in promoting sustainable agriculture and food security.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000257/pdfft?md5=b1e045231180970a61d5039647059631&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000257-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140770673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Temporal and spatial differences in human activities performed in Urban Green Spaces of Vilnius (Lithuania) 维尔纽斯(立陶宛)城市绿地上人类活动的时空差异
IF 9.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.03.002
Luís Valença Pinto , Carla Sofia Santos Ferreira , Paulo Pereira

Urban green spaces (UGS) are relevant to city well-being, as recognized by the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, few studies have studied the temporal use of UGS. This work assessed the seasonal, weekly, and daily use of three urban green spaces (Vingis Park, Bernardino Garden, and Jomantas Park) in Vilnius (Lithuania). The study is based on an on-site observation-based survey, which recorded users’ characteristics, activities, and weather conditions during summer and winter. The results showed that UGS’s seasonal, weekly, and daily use differed according to park and users’ characteristics. Parks with a higher diversity of facilities had a high seasonal difference in the number of observed activities. User numbers were higher in the summer for activities with children, social activities, sports, and water activities than in the winter. Jomantas Park had the lowest variability in user characteristics. Weather variables were linked to changes in users’ activities. Higher precipitation and lower temperature were associated with reducing the number of users and the diversity of registered activities. Most of the stationary activities were observed during summer. The diversity of the observed activities was associated with the available facilities rather than the park size. The distribution of stationary activities was spatially correlated with facility/equipment (benches, playgrounds, sports, and fitness equipment) and proximity to water features. The results of this study are relevant for UGS design, planning, and management.

正如联合国可持续发展目标(SDGs)所承认的那样,城市绿地(UGS)与城市福祉息息相关。然而,很少有研究对城市绿地的时间使用进行研究。本研究评估了立陶宛维尔纽斯三个城市绿地(Vingis 公园、Bernardino 花园和 Jomantas 公园)的季节性、每周和每日使用情况。研究以现场观察调查为基础,记录了使用者的特征、活动以及夏季和冬季的天气状况。结果表明,公园和使用者的特点不同,UGS 的季节、每周和每天使用情况也不同。设施多样性较高的公园,其观察到的活动数量的季节性差异较大。夏季儿童活动、社交活动、体育活动和水上活动的用户数量高于冬季。约曼塔斯公园的用户特征变化最小。天气变量与用户活动的变化有关。较高的降水量和较低的气温与用户数量的减少和登记活动的多样性有关。大多数固定活动都是在夏季进行的。观察到的活动多样性与可用设施而非公园面积有关。固定活动的分布在空间上与设施/设备(长凳、操场、运动和健身器材)和水景的远近相关。本研究的结果对城市综合服务系统的设计、规划和管理具有借鉴意义。
{"title":"Temporal and spatial differences in human activities performed in Urban Green Spaces of Vilnius (Lithuania)","authors":"Luís Valença Pinto ,&nbsp;Carla Sofia Santos Ferreira ,&nbsp;Paulo Pereira","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urban green spaces (UGS) are relevant to city well-being, as recognized by the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, few studies have studied the temporal use of UGS. This work assessed the seasonal, weekly, and daily use of three urban green spaces (Vingis Park, Bernardino Garden, and Jomantas Park) in Vilnius (Lithuania). The study is based on an on-site observation-based survey, which recorded users’ characteristics, activities, and weather conditions during summer and winter. The results showed that UGS’s seasonal, weekly, and daily use differed according to park and users’ characteristics. Parks with a higher diversity of facilities had a high seasonal difference in the number of observed activities. User numbers were higher in the summer for activities with children, social activities, sports, and water activities than in the winter. Jomantas Park had the lowest variability in user characteristics. Weather variables were linked to changes in users’ activities. Higher precipitation and lower temperature were associated with reducing the number of users and the diversity of registered activities. Most of the stationary activities were observed during summer. The diversity of the observed activities was associated with the available facilities rather than the park size. The distribution of stationary activities was spatially correlated with facility/equipment (benches, playgrounds, sports, and fitness equipment) and proximity to water features. The results of this study are relevant for UGS design, planning, and management.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2024-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000245/pdfft?md5=43d97e013e3e0f8d1cd2772d5ad13860&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000245-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140401255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial patterns and driving forces of urban vegetation greenness in China: A case study comprising 289 cities 中国城市植被绿化的空间格局与驱动力:包含 289 个城市的案例研究
IF 9.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.03.001
Yansong Jin , Fei Wang , Quanli Zong , Kai Jin , Chunxia Liu , Peng Qin

Urban vegetation in China has changed substantially in recent decades due to rapid urbanization and dramatic climate change. Nevertheless, the spatial differentiation of greenness among major cities of China and its evolution process and drivers are still poorly understood. This study examined the spatial patterns of vegetation greenness across 289 cities in China in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2018 by using spatial autocorrelation analysis on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); then, the influencing factors were analyzed by using the optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD) model and 18 natural and anthropogenic indicators. The findings demonstrated a noticeable rise in the overall greenness of the selected cities during 2000–2018. The cities in northwest China and east China exhibited the rapidest and slowest greening, respectively, among the six sub-regions. A significant positive spatial correlation was detected between the greenness of the 289 cities in different periods, but the correlation strength weakened over time. The hot and very hot spots in southern and eastern China gradually shifted to the southwest. While the spatial pattern of urban greenness in China is primarily influenced by wind speed (WS) and precipitation (PRE), the interaction between PRE and gross domestic product (GDP) has the highest explanatory power. The explanatory power of most natural factors decreased and, conversely, the influence of anthropogenic factors generally increased. These findings emphasize the variations in the influence strength of multiple factors on urban greenness pattern, which should be taken into account to understand and adapt to the changing urban ecosystem.

近几十年来,由于快速的城市化和剧烈的气候变化,中国的城市植被发生了巨大变化。然而,人们对中国主要城市之间的绿化空间分异及其演变过程和驱动因素仍然知之甚少。本研究通过归一化差异植被指数(NDVI)的空间自相关分析,研究了2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年和2018年中国289个城市植被绿度的空间格局;然后,利用基于最优参数的地理探测器(OPGD)模型和18个自然和人为指标分析了影响因素。研究结果表明,2000-2018 年间,所选城市的整体绿化水平明显提高。在六个次区域中,西北地区和华东地区城市的绿化速度分别最快和最慢。289 个城市在不同时期的绿化率之间存在明显的空间正相关,但随着时间的推移,相关强度有所减弱。华南和华东的热点和极热点城市逐渐向西南方向转移。中国城市绿化的空间格局主要受风速(WS)和降水量(PRE)的影响,而风速(PRE)与国内生产总值(GDP)的交互作用具有最高的解释力。大多数自然因素的解释力下降,相反,人为因素的影响普遍上升。这些发现强调了多种因素对城市绿化模式影响强度的差异,在理解和适应不断变化的城市生态系统时应考虑到这一点。
{"title":"Spatial patterns and driving forces of urban vegetation greenness in China: A case study comprising 289 cities","authors":"Yansong Jin ,&nbsp;Fei Wang ,&nbsp;Quanli Zong ,&nbsp;Kai Jin ,&nbsp;Chunxia Liu ,&nbsp;Peng Qin","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.03.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.03.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urban vegetation in China has changed substantially in recent decades due to rapid urbanization and dramatic climate change. Nevertheless, the spatial differentiation of greenness among major cities of China and its evolution process and drivers are still poorly understood. This study examined the spatial patterns of vegetation greenness across 289 cities in China in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2018 by using spatial autocorrelation analysis on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); then, the influencing factors were analyzed by using the optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD) model and 18 natural and anthropogenic indicators. The findings demonstrated a noticeable rise in the overall greenness of the selected cities during 2000–2018. The cities in northwest China and east China exhibited the rapidest and slowest greening, respectively, among the six sub-regions. A significant positive spatial correlation was detected between the greenness of the 289 cities in different periods, but the correlation strength weakened over time. The hot and very hot spots in southern and eastern China gradually shifted to the southwest. While the spatial pattern of urban greenness in China is primarily influenced by wind speed (WS) and precipitation (PRE), the interaction between PRE and gross domestic product (GDP) has the highest explanatory power. The explanatory power of most natural factors decreased and, conversely, the influence of anthropogenic factors generally increased. These findings emphasize the variations in the influence strength of multiple factors on urban greenness pattern, which should be taken into account to understand and adapt to the changing urban ecosystem.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000233/pdfft?md5=d5c7ffb142fbbdeb862e7e4aa48952d4&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000233-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140276225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Increased population exposures to extreme precipitation in Central Asia under 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming scenarios 全球变暖 1.5℃和 2℃情景下中亚极端降水对人口的影响增加
IF 9.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.02.005
Wei Wei , Shan Zou , Weili Duan , Yaning Chen , Shuai Li , Takahiro Sayama , Jianyu Zhu

The increase in extreme precipitation (EP) may pose a serious threat to the health and safety of population in arid and semi-arid regions. The current research on the impact of EP on population in Central Asia (CA) is insufficient and there is an urgent need for a comprehensive assessment. Hence, we opted for precipitation and temperature data under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5) from ten Global Climate Models (GCMs), which were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6). By integrating population data in 2020 and 2050 (SSP2 and SSP5), we investigated the future changes in EP and population exposure in CA under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios (GWSs). Our analysis indicates that EP in CA is projected to increase with global warming. Under the SSP5–8.5, the maximum daily precipitation (Rx1day) exhibits an average response rate to global warming of 3.58 %/K (1.99–4.06 %/K). With rising temperatures, an increasing number of areas and populations in CA will be impacted by EP, especially in the Fergana valley. Approximately 25% of the population (land area) in CA is exposed to Rx1day with increases of more than 8.31% (9.32%) under 1.5 °C GWS and 14.18% (13.25%) under 2 °C GWS. Controlling temperature rise can be effective in reducing population exposures to EP. For instance, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C results in a 2.79% (1.75%–4.59%) reduction in population exposure to Rx1day. Finally, we found that climate change serves as the predominant factor influencing the population exposure to EP, while the role of population redistribution, although relatively minor, should not be disregarded. Particularly for prolonged drought, the role of population redistribution manifests negatively.

极端降水量(EP)的增加可能对干旱和半干旱地区人口的健康和安全构成严重威胁。目前关于极端降水对中亚地区人口影响的研究尚不充分,迫切需要进行全面评估。因此,我们从十个全球气候模型(GCMs)中选择了两种共享社会经济路径(SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5)下的降水和温度数据,这些数据来自美国国家航空航天局地球交换全球每日降尺度预测(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)。通过整合 2020 年和 2050 年(SSP2 和 SSP5)的人口数据,我们研究了在 1.5 ℃ 和 2 ℃ 全球变暖情景(GWSs)下,加利福尼亚州未来环境影响和人口暴露的变化。我们的分析表明,随着全球变暖,预计加利福尼亚州的EP将增加。在 SSP5-8.5 情景下,最大日降水量(Rx1day)对全球变暖的平均响应率为 3.58 %/K(1.99-4.06 %/K)。随着气温升高,加利福尼亚州越来越多的地区和人口将受到 EP 的影响,尤其是费尔干纳谷地。控制气温上升可有效减少人群暴露于 EP 的机会。例如,将气温升幅限制在 1.5 °C,而不是 2 °C,可使 Rx1 天的人口暴露量减少 2.79% (1.75%-4.59%)。最后,我们发现气候变化是影响人口暴露于 EP 的主要因素,而人口重新分布的作用虽然相对较小,但也不容忽视。特别是在长期干旱的情况下,人口重新分布的作用表现为负面影响。
{"title":"Increased population exposures to extreme precipitation in Central Asia under 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming scenarios","authors":"Wei Wei ,&nbsp;Shan Zou ,&nbsp;Weili Duan ,&nbsp;Yaning Chen ,&nbsp;Shuai Li ,&nbsp;Takahiro Sayama ,&nbsp;Jianyu Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.02.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.02.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The increase in extreme precipitation (EP) may pose a serious threat to the health and safety of population in arid and semi-arid regions. The current research on the impact of EP on population in Central Asia (CA) is insufficient and there is an urgent need for a comprehensive assessment. Hence, we opted for precipitation and temperature data under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5) from ten Global Climate Models (GCMs), which were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6). By integrating population data in 2020 and 2050 (SSP2 and SSP5), we investigated the future changes in EP and population exposure in CA under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios (GWSs). Our analysis indicates that EP in CA is projected to increase with global warming. Under the SSP5–8.5, the maximum daily precipitation (Rx1day) exhibits an average response rate to global warming of 3.58 %/K (1.99–4.06 %/K). With rising temperatures, an increasing number of areas and populations in CA will be impacted by EP, especially in the Fergana valley. Approximately 25% of the population (land area) in CA is exposed to Rx1day with increases of more than 8.31% (9.32%) under 1.5 °C GWS and 14.18% (13.25%) under 2 °C GWS. Controlling temperature rise can be effective in reducing population exposures to EP. For instance, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C results in a 2.79% (1.75%–4.59%) reduction in population exposure to Rx1day. Finally, we found that climate change serves as the predominant factor influencing the population exposure to EP, while the role of population redistribution, although relatively minor, should not be disregarded. Particularly for prolonged drought, the role of population redistribution manifests negatively.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000142/pdfft?md5=8ddef2a461e981692fafc63c907bacb9&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000142-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140468792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Geography and Sustainability
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1