Geography and Sustainability最新文献_第4页

Current status and medium- and long-term variation of soil erosion by water in China 中国水土流失现状与中长期变化

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100372

Huiyun Xu , Xuchao Zhu , Pasquale Borrelli , Longxi Cao , Mingan Shao

Soil erosion is the primary factor causing the loss of soil resources and land degradation. Clarifying the current status of soil erosion in China and the characteristics of future changes under different pathways of development is important to the global management of soil resources, food security, and ecosystem services. We used the revised universal soil loss equation and the most recent and reliable soil and environmental data to characterize soil erosion in China at present and under typical Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (i.e., SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5) in the medium- and long-term future (2050 and 2100). The current average rate of soil erosion in China was 14.78 t ha^-1 yr^-1, with a total amount of about 14.0 Pg yr^-1. The amount of total erosion increased by 5.0 %, 10.8 %, 9.9 %, and 25.9 % for scenarios 2050_SSP1–2.6, 2050_SSP5–8.5, 2100_SSP1–2.6, and 2100_SSP5–8.5, respectively, compared to the baseline amount in 2010. The contribution of climate change and land use to the increase in erosion ranged from 9.5 % to 31.5 % and -6.95 % to -1.78 %, respectively, with the contribution of climate change about 2.36- to 7.54-fold larger than the contribution of land use. Converting arable barren land into forest and grassland or adopting conservation tillage practices for farmland, could nevertheless effectively offset the increase in erosion under the four future scenarios. This study provides data and a scientific basis for managing soil erosion in China and provides a useful reference for conserving global land resources and formulating policies to cope with climatic and environmental changes.

土壤侵蚀是造成土壤资源流失和土地退化的主要因素。明确中国土壤侵蚀现状及不同发展路径下未来变化特征，对全球土壤资源管理、粮食安全和生态系统服务具有重要意义。利用修正后的通用土壤流失方程和最新可靠的土壤环境数据，对中国目前和典型的共享社会经济路径和代表性浓度路径（即SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5）中长期（2050年和2100年）下的土壤侵蚀进行了表征。目前中国土壤侵蚀的平均速率为14.78 t ha-1 -1，总量约为14.0 Pg -1 -1。在2050_SSP1-2.6、2050_SSP5-8.5、2100_SSP1-2.6和2100_SSP5-8.5情景下，总侵蚀量分别比2010年的基线量增加了5.0%、10.8%、9.9%和25.9%。气候变化和土地利用对侵蚀增加的贡献率分别在9.5% ~ 31.5%和- 6.95% ~ - 1.78%之间，其中气候变化的贡献率约为土地利用贡献率的2.36 ~ 7.54倍。然而，在未来四种情景下，将可耕地变为森林和草地或采取保护性耕作措施可以有效地抵消侵蚀的增加。该研究为中国水土流失治理提供了数据和科学依据，并为保护全球土地资源和制定应对气候和环境变化的政策提供了有益的参考。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring the role of armed conflict in progress toward Sustainable Development Goals: Global patterns, regional differences, and driving mechanisms 探讨武装冲突在实现可持续发展目标进程中的作用：全球模式、区域差异和驱动机制

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100355

Di Wang , Zhenci Xu , Unai Pascual , Lei Liu , Waqar Ahmad , Dong Jiang

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent a solemn commitment by United Nations member states, but achieving them faces numerous challenges, particularly armed conflicts. Here, we analyzed the impact of armed conflict on SDG progress and its driving mechanism through causal inference methods and machine learning technique. The results show that between 2000 and 2021, armed conflicts slowed overall SDG progress by 3.43 %, equivalent to a setback of 18 years. The Middle East was the most affected region, with a 6.10 % slowdown in progress. The impact of different types of conflict varies across specific goals: interstate conflicts primarily affect SDG 5 (Gender Equality) and SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), while intrastate conflicts have a larger impact on SDG 4 (Quality Education) and SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure). Additionally, SDG 15 (Life on Land) is severely affected by both types of conflict, with long-term consequences. As armed conflicts increase, the development progress would regress rapidly in a non-linear manner. To achieve the SDGs by 2030, it is crucial not only to prevent conflicts but also to proactively address and mitigate their impacts on development.

可持续发展目标是联合国成员国的庄严承诺，但实现可持续发展目标面临诸多挑战，特别是武装冲突。本文通过因果推理方法和机器学习技术，分析了武装冲突对可持续发展目标进展的影响及其驱动机制。结果显示，2000年至2021年期间，武装冲突使可持续发展目标的总体进展减缓了3.43%，相当于倒退了18年。中东是受影响最严重的地区，其进展速度放缓6.10%。不同类型冲突的影响因具体目标而异：国家间冲突主要影响可持续发展目标5（性别平等）和可持续发展目标7（负担得起的清洁能源），而国内冲突对可持续发展目标4（优质教育）和可持续发展目标9（工业、创新和基础设施）的影响更大。此外，可持续发展目标15（陆地生命）受到这两种冲突的严重影响，并产生长期后果。随着武装冲突的增加，发展进展将以非线性方式迅速倒退。要在2030年前实现可持续发展目标，不仅要预防冲突，而且要积极应对和减轻冲突对发展的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Advancing intelligent geography: Current status, innovations, and future prospects 推进智能地理：现状、创新与未来展望

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100375

Fenzhen Su , Fengqin Yan , Wenzhou Wu , Dongjie Fu , Yinxia Cao , Vincent Lyne , Michael Meadows , Ling Yao , Jianghao Wang , Yuanyuan Huang , Chong Huang , Jun Qin , Shifeng Fang , An Zhang

Geography is shifting from static description to a feedback-driven, adaptive discipline integrating sensing, prediction, comparison, and continuous self-improvement. This transformation underlies Intelligent Geography (IG), where artificial intelligence (AI), big data analytics, and high-performance computing (HPC) converge to enhance spatial understanding and guide intelligent decisions in complex systems. The discipline’s historical stages—descriptive, experimental, theoretical, quantitative, GIScience, and information geography—form the foundation for an overarching adaptive framework. In this framework, diverse geospatial data streams seamlessly feed real-time models whose predicted outputs are compared with observed conditions to iteratively refine predictions. A hallmark of IG is embedding domain theory into AI workflows, producing predictive models that self-adjust to new data or control system behavior. Applications such as smart traffic management, climate-responsive urban planning, and disaster-resilient digital twins illustrate the sensing–prediction–adaptation/learning cycle in practice for complex changing systems. We examine the enabling roles of HPC, deep learning, and geographic large models in implementing feedback loops, and address persistent challenges in data integration, interpretability, and governance. We conclude with a vision of IG as an evolving socio-technical ecosystem that through adaptation and self-learning turns spatial data into adaptive, actionable knowledge that assists in intelligent decision-making, whether it is for AI systems or human ones.

地理学正在从静态描述转变为一门反馈驱动、自适应的学科，集感知、预测、比较和持续自我完善于一体。这种转变是智能地理（IG）的基础，其中人工智能（AI），大数据分析和高性能计算（HPC）融合在一起，以增强空间理解并指导复杂系统中的智能决策。该学科的历史阶段——描述、实验、理论、定量、地理信息科学和信息地理学——构成了一个总体适应性框架的基础。在这个框架中，不同的地理空间数据流无缝地馈送实时模型，其预测输出与观测条件进行比较，以迭代地改进预测。人工智能的一个特点是将领域理论嵌入到人工智能工作流程中，产生能够自我调整以适应新数据或控制系统行为的预测模型。智能交通管理、气候响应型城市规划和抗灾数字孪生等应用说明了复杂变化系统实践中的感知-预测-适应/学习周期。我们研究了HPC、深度学习和地理大模型在实现反馈循环中的支持作用，并解决了数据集成、可解释性和治理方面的持续挑战。最后，我们将IG视为一个不断发展的社会技术生态系统，通过适应和自我学习，将空间数据转化为自适应的、可操作的知识，帮助人工智能系统或人类做出智能决策。

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引用次数: 0

The high-altitude peatland carbon cycle: A review of the impacts of climate change, human disturbance and management 气候变化、人为干扰及管理对高原泥炭地碳循环的影响

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100353

Paul P.J. Gaffney , Qiuhong Tang , Jinsong Wang , Chi Zhang , Ximeng Xu , Xiangbo Xu , Yuan Li , Sabolc Pap , Joshua L. Ratcliffe , Quanwen Li , Shuli Niu

High-altitude peatlands (HAPs; defined as > 1,500 m) provide important ecosystem services including soil carbon (C) storage. However, temperatures in high-altitude regions have been rising rapidly in recent decades, while HAPs are increasingly affected by human activities such as intensive drainage and grazing. Collectively, climate change and land management may strongly affect the HAP C cycle. Here, we synthesise current global progress on the HAP C cycle, focussing on the impacts of climate change and land management. Warming increased both ecosystem respiration (ER) and methane (CH₄) emissions (26 %–86 %), while impacts on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO₂ were still unclear. However, short-term drought decreased ER and CH₄ emissions (7 %–96 %), along with NEE (12 %–52 %). Snow, permafrost, and glacier decline may also impact the C cycle in HAPs, although a limited number of studies have been conducted. Grazing and vegetation degradation impacts on HAP C cycling were related to grazing and degradation intensity, while generally decreasing soil organic C stocks (3 %–51 %). Moving from shallower to deeper WTLs stimulated ER (9 %–812 %), while reducing CH₄ emissions (13 %–100 %), with variable effects on NEE (-53 %–700 %). Restoration by rewetting began to reverse the trend of drainage. We highlight several knowledge gaps, including limited understanding of climate change and land-management effects on gross primary productivity and dissolved organic carbon, while there is still limited knowledge of regional differences in HAP C cycling. Future research should focus on the interaction of land-use and climate change in HAPs, including HAP restoration, which may help future conservation of these valuable ecosystems.

高海拔泥炭地（HAPs；定义为1500米）提供重要的生态系统服务，包括土壤碳(C)储存。然而，近几十年来，高海拔地区的气温一直在迅速上升，而HAPs越来越多地受到人类活动（如集约排水和放牧）的影响。总的来说，气候变化和土地管理可能强烈影响HAP - C循环。在这里，我们综合了目前全球在HAP - C循环方面的进展，重点关注气候变化和土地管理的影响。变暖增加了生态系统呼吸（ER）和甲烷（CH4）排放（26% ~ 86%），而对二氧化碳净生态系统交换（NEE）的影响尚不清楚。然而，短期干旱减少了ER和CH4的排放（7% - 96%），以及NEE（12% - 52%）。尽管开展的研究数量有限，但积雪、永久冻土和冰川的减少也可能影响HAPs中的C循环。放牧和植被退化对有机碳循环的影响与放牧和退化强度有关，而土壤有机碳储量普遍减少（3% ~ 51%）。从较浅的水体向较深的水体移动可刺激ER(9% - 812%)，同时减少CH4排放（13% - 100%），对NEE有不同的影响（- 53% - 700%）。复湿恢复开始逆转排水趋势。我们强调了一些知识空白，包括对气候变化和土地管理对总初级生产力和溶解有机碳的影响的了解有限，而对HAP - C循环的区域差异的了解仍然有限。未来的研究重点应放在旱地生态系统土地利用与气候变化的相互作用上，包括旱地生态系统的恢复，这可能有助于这些宝贵生态系统的未来保护。

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引用次数: 0

Ecosystem-dependent two-stage changes in soil organic carbon stock across the contiguous United States from 1970 to 2014 1970年至2014年美国相邻地区土壤有机碳储量的生态系统依赖两阶段变化

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100359

Feixue Shen , Lin Yang , Lei Zhang , A-Xing Zhu , Xiang Li , Chenconghai Yang , Chenghu Zhou , Yiqi Luo , Shilong Piao

Temporal dynamics in soil organic carbon (SOC) play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle. How warming affects SOC change has been widely studied at the site scale, mainly through short-term manipulative experiments. Decades-long SOC dynamics in ecosystems can be complicated, particularly as real-world warming rates varied on decade-scale. However, the lack of long-term repeated observations on whole-profile SOC limits our understanding of SOC dynamics across large regions. Herein, we reconstructed 45 years of SOC dynamics (1970–2014) in topsoil (0–30 cm) and subsoil (30–100 cm) using 10,639 soil profiles from forest and cropland across the contiguous United States, and investigated their relations with key dynamic environments (e.g., climate, vegetation and nitrogen). We further examined the spatial pattern of SOC stock changes at a finer scale (∼2 km) using machine learning techniques. Our results revealed ecosystem-dependent, two-stage changes of SOC stock, characterized by continental-scale halts in SOC loss following warming deceleration since the late 1990s. This shift led to an overall increase in SOC stock of 1.41 % in forest and 1.14 % in cropland within the top 1-meter over 45 years. Temperature was the primary factor related to topsoil SOC losses, whereas soil water content may primarily control subsoil SOC change. Notably, a threshold effect of warming rates on SOC loss was identified in both topsoil and subsoil. These findings provide new insights into long-term whole-profile SOC dynamics at a large scale, offering valuable implications for carbon sequestration to support sustainable development in different ecosystems.

土壤有机碳（SOC）的时间动态在全球碳循环中起着至关重要的作用。气候变暖对土壤有机碳变化的影响已经在站点尺度上进行了广泛的研究，主要是通过短期的可操作实验。生态系统中长达数十年的有机碳动态可能是复杂的，特别是当现实世界的变暖速度在十年尺度上发生变化时。然而，缺乏对全剖面有机碳的长期重复观测限制了我们对大区域有机碳动态的理解。在此基础上，利用美国10639个森林和农田土壤剖面，重建了表层土壤（0-30 cm）和底土（30-100 cm） 45年的有机碳动态（1970-2014），并研究了它们与关键动态环境（如气候、植被和氮）的关系。我们使用机器学习技术进一步研究了更精细尺度（~ 2公里）上SOC储量变化的空间格局。结果表明，自20世纪90年代末以来，碳储量的变化依赖于生态系统，具有两阶段的变化特征，其特征是大陆尺度的碳储量损失在变暖减速后停止。在45年的时间里，这一变化导致森林土壤有机碳储量增加1.41%，耕地土壤有机碳储量增加1.14%。温度是影响表层土壤有机碳损失的主要因素，而土壤含水量可能是影响底土有机碳变化的主要因素。值得注意的是，升温速率对表层土壤和底土有机碳损失都存在阈值效应。这些发现为大规模研究长期整体有机碳动态提供了新的见解，为支持不同生态系统的可持续发展提供了有价值的碳固存建议。

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引用次数: 0

China’s mountain biodiversity and conservation status 中国山地生物多样性及其保护现状

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100360

Nan Jiang , Lei Zhao , Mei Han , Weihua Xu

As global biodiversity continues to decline and ecosystems degrade, mountains are often regarded as crucial refuges for numerous species due to their unique montane environments and relatively unfragmented landscapes. The conservation of mountain biodiversity is a key component of the United Nations Sustainable Development Agenda. Gaining insight into the distribution of montane species and identifying priority conservation areas are essential for effective action. However, such efforts have been relatively limited in China. In this study, we evaluated the contribution of mountains to biodiversity conservation within the country. Our findings indicate that China’s mountains support a remarkable percentage of the country’s wildlife. They include 95 % of mammal species, 85 % of bird species, 89 % of amphibian species, 85 % of reptile species, and 80 % of higher plant species. These areas harbor over 90 % of China’s natural ecosystem subclasses, despite constituting only 65 % of the total land area. Approximately a quarter of important sites for mountain biodiversity are covered by protected areas, but some key regions remain unprotected. It is recommended that protection be prioritized in the southeastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, the Hengduan Mountains and the Southeastern China Hills, with a focus on narrowly distributed ecosystems, to achieve the biodiversity target and vision.

随着全球生物多样性的持续下降和生态系统的退化，由于其独特的山地环境和相对完整的景观，山区往往被视为许多物种的重要避难所。保护山地生物多样性是联合国可持续发展议程的一个关键组成部分。深入了解山地物种的分布和确定优先保护区对于采取有效行动至关重要。然而，这种努力在中国相对有限。在本研究中，我们评估了山区对国内生物多样性保护的贡献。我们的研究结果表明，中国的山区支撑着该国相当大比例的野生动物。它们包括95%的哺乳动物、85%的鸟类、89%的两栖动物、85%的爬行动物和80%的高等植物。这些地区拥有中国90%以上的自然生态系统亚类，尽管它们只占总陆地面积的65%。大约四分之一的山地生物多样性重要地点被保护区覆盖，但一些关键地区仍然不受保护。建议优先保护青藏高原东南部、横断山脉和东南丘陵，重点保护狭窄分布的生态系统，以实现生物多样性目标和愿景。

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引用次数: 0

Biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of livestock management in high-altitude Xizang, China 西藏高原畜牧业管理的生物物理和社会经济驱动因素

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100377

Yu Zhang , Ben Niu , Zhipeng Wang , Meng Li , Jianshuang Wu , Xianzhou Zhang

Livestock management plays a crucial role in environmental protection, food security, and sustainable livelihoods worldwide. However, comprehensive research on its microeconomic dimensions remains limited. Here, we used piecewise structural equation modeling to identify key drivers of livestock management among rural smallholders, focusing on livestock stocking rates (LSR) and livestock offtake rates (LOR). Data were collected via semi-structured questionnaires and household head interviews in 54 villages in northern Xizang between 2018 and 2020 (n = 549). Our findings revealed pronounced spatial heterogeneity in livestock management, with households in alpine meadows showing the highest LSR (2.14 standardized sheep units per hectare, SSU· ha⁻¹) and the lowest LOR (9 %), in contrast to households in desert steppe areas (0.27 SSU· ha⁻¹ and 15 %, respectively). Across northern Xizang, five grouped environmental factors—climatic conditions, natural resource endowment, market conditions, demographics, and household income—jointly explained 66 % and 20 % of the variance in LSR and LOR, respectively. Biophysical factors had a greater influence than socioeconomic ones, though demographic variables and market conditions were also positively correlated with LSR and LOR, respectively. Given the consistently low LOR among species (9 %–15 %), with marked differences between yaks and sheep (5 %) and goats (2 %), targeted policies are needed to encourage herders to adopt circular economy practices to balance ecological conservation with economic growth. This study highlights an underutilized livestock economy in high-altitude pastoral communities and clarifies the interplay of biophysical and socioeconomic factors in herders’ decision-making. The findings offer valuable insights for refining policy frameworks related to livestock and environmental management in rural China and beyond.

牲畜管理在全世界的环境保护、粮食安全和可持续生计方面发挥着至关重要的作用。然而，对其微观经济层面的全面研究仍然有限。本研究采用分段结构方程模型，以牲畜放养率（LSR）和牲畜摄取率（LOR）为重点，分析了农村小农畜牧业管理的关键驱动因素。通过半结构化问卷和户主访谈的方式收集了2018 - 2020年西藏北部54个村庄（n = 549）的数据。研究结果显示，在牲畜管理方面存在明显的空间异质性，高山草甸家庭的LSR最高（2.14个标准化羊单位/公顷，SSU·ha - 1）， LOR最低（9%），而沙漠草原地区家庭的LSR分别为0.27个SSU·ha - 1和15%。在西藏北部，五组环境因素——气候条件、自然资源禀赋、市场条件、人口统计和家庭收入——分别解释了66%和20%的LSR和LOR差异。生物物理因素的影响大于社会经济因素，但人口变量和市场条件也分别与LSR和LOR呈正相关。考虑到物种间的循环经济效率持续较低（9% - 15%），牦牛与绵羊（5%）和山羊（2%）之间的差异显著，需要有针对性的政策来鼓励牧民采用循环经济实践，以平衡生态保护与经济增长。本研究突出了高海拔牧区未充分利用的畜牧业经济，并阐明了生物物理和社会经济因素在牧民决策中的相互作用。研究结果为完善中国农村及其他地区与牲畜和环境管理相关的政策框架提供了宝贵的见解。

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引用次数: 0

The second phase of Global Dryland Ecosystem Program—Focusing on dryland social-ecological system and sustainability 全球旱地生态系统规划第二阶段——关注旱地社会生态系统及其可持续性

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100379

Bojie Fu , David J. Eldridge , Jingyi Ding

引用次数: 0

A land–water–energy–greenhouse gas nexus framework informs climate change mitigation in agriculture: A case study in the North China Plain 土地-水-能源-温室气体联系框架为农业减缓气候变化提供信息：以华北平原为例

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100354

Xin Xuan , Yuping Bai , Gaurav Sikka , Chuyao Weng , Xiangzheng Deng

The land, water, energy use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions involved in agricultural production are intrinsically linked. However, quantitative characterization and scenario simulations of these elements’ inherent interrelationships remain scarce. We developed a land–water–energy–GHG (LWEG) nexus framework for the North China Plain (NCP). The framework identifies the mutual feedback in the life cycle of agricultural production among the four factors. We applied the framework to assess the agricultural GHG mitigation potential for winter wheat, summer maize, and rice in NCP municipalities. The results showed that cropping structure optimization reduced GHG emissions by 1.96 Mt CO₂e. Controlling indirect energy consumption in upstream processes of crop production and reducing on-site energy use reduced the volume and intensity per unit area of agricultural GHG emissions. Because of the synergies between land, water, and energy, nexus management, which combines multiple measures of groundwater management, fertilizer, and energy control, has substantial GHG mitigation potential. The nexus management scenario produced a total GHG of 159.51 Mt CO₂e, a decrease of 15.38 % from the baseline scenario. This study quantifies the LWEG nexus within agricultural production processes and identifies agricultural management practices that integrate water, energy conservation, and emissions mitigation contributing to the Sustainable Development Goals.

农业生产中涉及的土地、水、能源使用和温室气体（GHG）排放具有内在联系。然而，这些元素内在相互关系的定量表征和情景模拟仍然很少。建立了华北平原陆地-水-能源-温室气体（LWEG）联系框架。该框架确定了这四个要素在农业生产生命周期中的相互反馈关系。我们应用该框架评估了新农村地区冬小麦、夏玉米和水稻的农业温室气体减排潜力。结果表明，优化种植结构可减少196 Mt CO2e的温室气体排放。控制作物生产上游过程的间接能源消耗，减少现场能源使用，降低了单位面积农业温室气体排放量和强度。由于土地、水和能源之间的协同作用，结合地下水管理、肥料和能源控制等多种措施的联结管理具有巨大的温室气体缓解潜力。nexus管理情景产生的温室气体总量为15951 Mt CO2e，比基线情景减少15.38%。本研究量化了农业生产过程中的LWEG关系，并确定了将水、节能和减排结合起来的农业管理实践，这些实践有助于实现可持续发展目标。

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引用次数: 0

Proactive adaptation to climate change in landscape configuration and agricultural management optimization: A case study of agro-pastoral transitional zone in northern China 景观配置对气候变化的主动适应与农业管理优化——以中国北方农牧交错带为例

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100373

Jianmin Qiao , Yuhang Gao , Ziyan Lv , Zidong Tang , Shike Xie , Qian Cao , Xiao Sun

Optimizing landscape patterns and management measures would be an effective strategy for the agro-pastoral transitional zone in northern China (ATNC) to adapt to future climate change. Existing studies generally focus on cropland or pasture, and thus there is a lack of comprehensive understanding of the landscape composition and configuration in complex agro-pastoral transitional zone. In this study, Ansai County in the ATNC was chosen as an experimental area. Four typical agroecosystem services (AESs), food provision (FP), soil carbon (SC), soil retention (SR) and water yield (WY) from 1980 to 2020, were simulated by spatially integrating a model of the agricultural system using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) combined with geographic information systems technology. The impacts of different crop types, pasture configurations, and tillage practices on AESs under future climate scenarios were assessed in the context of agro-pastoral transition. Finally, the optimal landscape pattern configuration and management measures were identified through single-objective and multi-objective optimization models. The results showed that under historical scenarios, implementing policies such as converting cropland to pastureland improved SC and SR but reduced FP and WY. Compared to traditional and reduced tillage, no-till practices benefited the enlargement of AESs and the agricultural ecosystem. Notably, future climate change generally negatively affected AESs, especially under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP5–8.5) climate scenario. The combination of planting corn and no-till measures would be ideal for optimizing the agricultural ecosystem in Ansai County. For the fragile ATNC, we should advocate conservation agriculture and policies converting cropland to pastureland to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate changes. This study establishes a replicable framework to address landscape management in complex agropastoral systems and offers solutions for climate-resilient land management in global dryland transitional zones, contributing to the realization of regional ecosystem sustainability.

优化景观格局和管理措施将是中国北方农牧交错带适应未来气候变化的有效策略。现有研究主要集中在农田或牧场，缺乏对复杂农牧交错带景观组成和配置的全面认识。本研究选择安塞县为试验区。利用环境政策综合气候（EPIC）与地理信息系统技术相结合的农业系统空间整合模型，对1980 ~ 2020年的粮食供应（FP）、土壤碳（SC）、土壤保持率（SR）和产水量（WY） 4种典型农业生态系统服务进行了模拟。在农牧过渡背景下，评估了未来气候情景下不同作物类型、牧草配置和耕作方式对农业生态系统的影响。最后，通过单目标和多目标优化模型确定了最优景观格局配置和管理措施。结果表明：在历史情景下，退耕还草等政策的实施提高了土壤SC和SR，降低了土壤FP和WY；与传统和少耕相比，免耕有利于扩大农业生态系统和农业生态系统。值得注意的是，未来气候变化普遍对AESs产生负面影响，特别是在共享社会经济路径（SSP5-8.5）气候情景下。玉米种植与免耕措施相结合是优化安塞县农业生态系统的理想选择。对于脆弱的亚太地区，我们应该提倡保护性农业和将耕地转为牧场的政策，以减轻气候变化的不利影响。本研究为解决复杂农牧系统景观管理问题建立了可复制的框架，并为全球旱地过渡带气候适应型土地管理提供了解决方案，有助于实现区域生态系统的可持续性。

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