Pub Date : 2025-03-03DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100282
Qiaoxian Bai , Zhifeng Liu , Binghua Gong , Shuhui Liu , Xufeng Mao , Chunyang He
The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) serves as a vital ecological security barrier in China and the broader Asian region. The delineation of urban growth boundaries (UGBs) in this region with consideration of socioeconomic development and ecological protection is urgently needed, but there is a lack of such research. The objective of this study is to delineate the UGBs on the QXP during 2020–2100 to simultaneously meet the needs of socioeconomic development and ecosystem services (ESs) protection. To achieve this purpose, under a scenario matrix integrating shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and ESs protection, the urban expansion on the QXP during 2020–2100 was simulated by coupling the ESs assessment models and the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. Finally, we compared the spatial patterns of the UGBs and the conservation effectiveness of ESs under different scenarios. The extent of UGBs on the QXP is projected to reach 2,045.60–2,231.10 km2, which is 62.23 %–76.95 % greater than the urban land area (1,260.90 km2) in 2020. Protecting the ESs can reduce the loss of the average natural habitat quality, food production, and carbon sequestration by 33.29 %–34.27 %, 8.61 %–18.23 %, and 36.56 %–40.34 %, respectively. Protecting food production and carbon sequestration in Qinghai Province are more effective, but in the Xizang Autonomous Region, protecting ESs has a considerable trade-off effect. The UGBs delineated in this study can offer a reference for future urban planning on the QXP.
{"title":"Delineation of future urban growth boundaries on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau by integrating socioeconomic development and ecosystem services conservation","authors":"Qiaoxian Bai , Zhifeng Liu , Binghua Gong , Shuhui Liu , Xufeng Mao , Chunyang He","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100282","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100282","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) serves as a vital ecological security barrier in China and the broader Asian region. The delineation of urban growth boundaries (UGBs) in this region with consideration of socioeconomic development and ecological protection is urgently needed, but there is a lack of such research. The objective of this study is to delineate the UGBs on the QXP during 2020–2100 to simultaneously meet the needs of socioeconomic development and ecosystem services (ESs) protection. To achieve this purpose, under a scenario matrix integrating shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and ESs protection, the urban expansion on the QXP during 2020–2100 was simulated by coupling the ESs assessment models and the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. Finally, we compared the spatial patterns of the UGBs and the conservation effectiveness of ESs under different scenarios. The extent of UGBs on the QXP is projected to reach 2,045.60–2,231.10 km<sup>2</sup>, which is 62.23 %–76.95 % greater than the urban land area (1,260.90 km<sup>2</sup>) in 2020. Protecting the ESs can reduce the loss of the average natural habitat quality, food production, and carbon sequestration by 33.29 %–34.27 %, 8.61 %–18.23 %, and 36.56 %–40.34 %, respectively. Protecting food production and carbon sequestration in Qinghai Province are more effective, but in the Xizang Autonomous Region, protecting ESs has a considerable trade-off effect. The UGBs delineated in this study can offer a reference for future urban planning on the QXP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100282"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143863522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-03DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100284
Hengxing Xiang , Dehua Mao , Ming Wang , Yeqiao Wang , Chi-Yeung Choi , Wenjuan Wang , Haitao Wu , Kaidong Feng , Zongming Wang
Considering the crucial role of wetland conservation in China for the sustainability of biodiversity, it is imperative to identify key habitat functional areas (KHFAs), which are suitable for sustaining waterbirds and ensuring landscape connectivity, to optimize wetland management. This study identifies the past changes, present status, and future patterns of wetland KHFAs in China by using the Zonation model with comprehensive data inputs, including wetland distribution, key bird distribution areas (such as Ramsar sites and Important Bird Areas), and flagship waterbird species. Results show that the current wetland KHFAs in China is 41,613.5 km2, mainly in the Sanjiang Plain (SJP), Songnen Plain (SNP), middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) regions. The area of wetland KHFAs has been declining since 1990, especially in 2000, mainly due to anthropogenic impacts such as urbanization and agricultural expansion. The future projections suggest a continued decline in the area of wetland KHFAs, although the trend is expected to be slowed. The conservation gap analysis indicates that prioritizing wetland reserves in KHFAs areas, such as the SJP, SNP, and QXP, can significantly enhance the protection of wetland flagship species and their habitats. The results of this study establish conservation priorities that align with national goals of a 55 % wetland protection rate and the global biodiversity framework in protected areas and biodiversity, indicating that the spatial conservation optimization approach is an effective method for identifying wetland KHFAs.
{"title":"Wetland key habitat functional areas in China informed by flagship waterbirds: Past changes, present status and future trend with modeling scenarios","authors":"Hengxing Xiang , Dehua Mao , Ming Wang , Yeqiao Wang , Chi-Yeung Choi , Wenjuan Wang , Haitao Wu , Kaidong Feng , Zongming Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100284","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100284","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Considering the crucial role of wetland conservation in China for the sustainability of biodiversity, it is imperative to identify key habitat functional areas (KHFAs), which are suitable for sustaining waterbirds and ensuring landscape connectivity, to optimize wetland management. This study identifies the past changes, present status, and future patterns of wetland KHFAs in China by using the Zonation model with comprehensive data inputs, including wetland distribution, key bird distribution areas (such as Ramsar sites and Important Bird Areas), and flagship waterbird species. Results show that the current wetland KHFAs in China is 41,613.5 km<sup>2</sup>, mainly in the Sanjiang Plain (SJP), Songnen Plain (SNP), middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) regions. The area of wetland KHFAs has been declining since 1990, especially in 2000, mainly due to anthropogenic impacts such as urbanization and agricultural expansion. The future projections suggest a continued decline in the area of wetland KHFAs, although the trend is expected to be slowed. The conservation gap analysis indicates that prioritizing wetland reserves in KHFAs areas, such as the SJP, SNP, and QXP, can significantly enhance the protection of wetland flagship species and their habitats. The results of this study establish conservation priorities that align with national goals of a 55 % wetland protection rate and the global biodiversity framework in protected areas and biodiversity, indicating that the spatial conservation optimization approach is an effective method for identifying wetland KHFAs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100284"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143948323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-24DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100281
Jiali Gu , Jiaping Wu , Dongfeng Xie
Coastal salt marshes provide critical ecological services, including carbon sequestration. However, the landscape patterns, driving factors, and carbon dynamics associated with salt marsh losses and gains remain insufficiently explored, which is vital for effective restoration. This study conducted a comprehensive analysis of these aspects across China, with a focus on species-specific differences. Based on historical salt marsh data, landscape analysis was applied for identifying the spatiotemporal characteristics of changes. XGBoost algorithm was used for driving factor analysis. Carbon dynamics derived from salt marsh changes were estimated with statistical calculation. Our results indicated that the distribution patterns of salt marshes, as indicated by mean center, ellipse area, and landscape indices, varied significantly from 1985 to 2019, particularly between 2005 and 2010. Native species, such as Phragmites australis and Suaeda salsa, experienced significant losses with a 72 % reduction, while exotic species Spartina alterniflora showed substantial gains with a 680-fold. Human disturbances emerged as the primary driver of these changes, with mean temperature and precipitation influencing certain regions and years. Overall, salt marsh changes resulted in a net emission of 68.1 Mt CO2, with the highest emission in Shandong and linked to the loss of Phragmites australis. Conversely, carbon sequestration equivalent to 11.1 Mt CO2 mainly resulted from the expansion of Spartina alterniflora, with Shanghai contributing the most. This species-specific and site-specific analysis of landscape patterns, drivers, and carbon dynamics in China could enhance our understanding of salt marsh changes and offer valuable insights for targeted restoration efforts at both local and national levels.
{"title":"Coastal salt marsh changes in China: Landscape pattern, driving factors, and carbon dynamics","authors":"Jiali Gu , Jiaping Wu , Dongfeng Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100281","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100281","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coastal salt marshes provide critical ecological services, including carbon sequestration. However, the landscape patterns, driving factors, and carbon dynamics associated with salt marsh losses and gains remain insufficiently explored, which is vital for effective restoration. This study conducted a comprehensive analysis of these aspects across China, with a focus on species-specific differences. Based on historical salt marsh data, landscape analysis was applied for identifying the spatiotemporal characteristics of changes. XGBoost algorithm was used for driving factor analysis. Carbon dynamics derived from salt marsh changes were estimated with statistical calculation. Our results indicated that the distribution patterns of salt marshes, as indicated by mean center, ellipse area, and landscape indices, varied significantly from 1985 to 2019, particularly between 2005 and 2010. Native species, such as <em>Phragmites australis</em> and <em>Suaeda salsa</em>, experienced significant losses with a 72 % reduction, while exotic species <em>Spartina alterniflora</em> showed substantial gains with a 680-fold. Human disturbances emerged as the primary driver of these changes, with mean temperature and precipitation influencing certain regions and years. Overall, salt marsh changes resulted in a net emission of 68.1 Mt CO<sub>2</sub>, with the highest emission in Shandong and linked to the loss of <em>Phragmites australis</em>. Conversely, carbon sequestration equivalent to 11.1 Mt CO<sub>2</sub> mainly resulted from the expansion of <em>Spartina alterniflora</em>, with Shanghai contributing the most. This species-specific and site-specific analysis of landscape patterns, drivers, and carbon dynamics in China could enhance our understanding of salt marsh changes and offer valuable insights for targeted restoration efforts at both local and national levels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100281"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143879459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-19DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100280
Stephanie Barr , Christopher J. Lemieux , Jen Hoesen , Brooklyn Rushton , Pamela Wright
Climate change is increasingly affecting all aspects of protected areas management from changes of species ranges to visitor experiences. Due to these impacts, there is a need for managers to take more robust approaches to considering the implications of climate change on the overall application and efficacy of protected areas management direction, including the achievement of the goals and objectives contained within management plans. Through a systematic and comprehensive content analysis approach, this study assesses the current extent to which climate change is considered in Canadian protected area management plans. Specifically, we evaluated 63 terrestrial protected area management plans against a set of climate robustness principles. Our content analysis revealed that climate change is currently not effectively factored into Canadian protected area management plans with an average climate robustness score of 18 %. Climate robustness score was not found to be correlated with protected area size, International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) management classification, or jurisdictional authority. Certain climate robustness principles received higher scores across the management plans than others. For example, the principles of ‘diverse knowledge sources’ and ‘addresses climate change’ scored relatively highly whereas ‘climate change vulnerability’ and ‘ecosystem integrity’ received the lowest scores. The lack of integration of ecological integrity considerations in management plans was a particularly noteworthy deficiency considering that this guiding principle is the primary legislative objective of many national and sub-national protected areas in Canada. From this assessment, climate change needs to be more effectively and consistently integrated into protected area management plan development and coordinated across associated planning processes. We discuss the ways in which this can be achieved, for example, by integrating scenario planning into organizational management plan development processes.
{"title":"Evaluating the climate change robustness of Canadian protected area management plans","authors":"Stephanie Barr , Christopher J. Lemieux , Jen Hoesen , Brooklyn Rushton , Pamela Wright","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100280","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100280","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is increasingly affecting all aspects of protected areas management from changes of species ranges to visitor experiences. Due to these impacts, there is a need for managers to take more robust approaches to considering the implications of climate change on the overall application and efficacy of protected areas management direction, including the achievement of the goals and objectives contained within management plans. Through a systematic and comprehensive content analysis approach, this study assesses the current extent to which climate change is considered in Canadian protected area management plans. Specifically, we evaluated 63 terrestrial protected area management plans against a set of climate robustness principles. Our content analysis revealed that climate change is currently not effectively factored into Canadian protected area management plans with an average climate robustness score of 18 %. Climate robustness score was not found to be correlated with protected area size, International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) management classification, or jurisdictional authority. Certain climate robustness principles received higher scores across the management plans than others. For example, the principles of ‘diverse knowledge sources’ and ‘addresses climate change’ scored relatively highly whereas ‘climate change vulnerability’ and ‘ecosystem integrity’ received the lowest scores. The lack of integration of ecological integrity considerations in management plans was a particularly noteworthy deficiency considering that this guiding principle is the primary legislative objective of many national and sub-national protected areas in Canada. From this assessment, climate change needs to be more effectively and consistently integrated into protected area management plan development and coordinated across associated planning processes. We discuss the ways in which this can be achieved, for example, by integrating scenario planning into organizational management plan development processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100280"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143643987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-08DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100276
Anasua Chakraborty , Mitali Yeshwant Joshi , Ahmed Mustafa , Mario Cools , Jacques Teller
The impact of different global and local variables in urban development processes requires a systematic study to fully comprehend the underlying complexities in them. The interplay between such variables is crucial for modelling urban growth to closely reflects reality. Despite extensive research, ambiguity remains about how variations in these input variables influence urban densification. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis (SA) using a multinomial logistic regression (MNL) model to assess the model’s explanatory and predictive power. We examine the influence of global variables, including spatial resolution, neighborhood size, and density classes, under different input combinations at a provincial scale to understand their impact on densification. Additionally, we perform a stepwise regression to identify the significant explanatory variables that are important for understanding densification in the Brussels Metropolitan Area (BMA). Our results indicate that a finer spatial resolution of 50 m and 100 m, smaller neighborhood size of 5 × 5 and 3 × 3, and specific density classes—namely 3 (non-built-up, low and high built-up) and 4 (non-built-up, low, medium and high built-up)—optimally explain and predict urban densification. In line with the same, the stepwise regression reveals that models with a coarser resolution of 300 m lack significant variables, reflecting a lower explanatory power for densification. This approach aids in identifying optimal and significant global variables with higher explanatory power for understanding and predicting urban densification. Furthermore, these findings are reproducible in a global urban context, offering valuable insights for planners, modelers and geographers in managing future urban growth and minimizing modelling.
{"title":"Model’s parameter sensitivity assessment and their impact on Urban Densification using regression analysis","authors":"Anasua Chakraborty , Mitali Yeshwant Joshi , Ahmed Mustafa , Mario Cools , Jacques Teller","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100276","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100276","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The impact of different global and local variables in urban development processes requires a systematic study to fully comprehend the underlying complexities in them. The interplay between such variables is crucial for modelling urban growth to closely reflects reality. Despite extensive research, ambiguity remains about how variations in these input variables influence urban densification. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis (SA) using a multinomial logistic regression (MNL) model to assess the model’s explanatory and predictive power. We examine the influence of global variables, including spatial resolution, neighborhood size, and density classes, under different input combinations at a provincial scale to understand their impact on densification. Additionally, we perform a stepwise regression to identify the significant explanatory variables that are important for understanding densification in the Brussels Metropolitan Area (BMA). Our results indicate that a finer spatial resolution of 50 m and 100 m, smaller neighborhood size of 5 × 5 and 3 × 3, and specific density classes—namely 3 (non-built-up, low and high built-up) and 4 (non-built-up, low, medium and high built-up)—optimally explain and predict urban densification. In line with the same, the stepwise regression reveals that models with a coarser resolution of 300 m lack significant variables, reflecting a lower explanatory power for densification. This approach aids in identifying optimal and significant global variables with higher explanatory power for understanding and predicting urban densification. Furthermore, these findings are reproducible in a global urban context, offering valuable insights for planners, modelers and geographers in managing future urban growth and minimizing modelling.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 2","pages":"Article 100276"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143479300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-06DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100279
Kazi Al Muqtadir Abir , Biplob Dey , Mohammad Redowan , Ashraful Haque , Romel Ahmed
Protecting rare, endemic, and endangered species requires careful habitat evaluation to set strategic plans for mitigating biodiversity loss and prioritizing conservation goals. The endangered Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) exemplifies the urgent need for targeted conservation efforts, given its challenging habitat conditions. This study examines the impact of climate and land use changes on the suitable habitat distribution of Asian elephants. Utilizing ten predictor variables, including climatic, topographic, and land use data, and employing six ensemble Species Distribution Models (SDMs) alongside Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data, the study estimates spatial changes and potential habitat expansions for Asian elephants across Tropical Asia. Occurrence data were gathered from field surveys in Bangladesh and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database for Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Laos, Nepal, Thailand, and Vietnam. To evaluate habitat suitability, the analysis considered two distinct socioeconomic pathways (SSP 245 and SSP 370) across two future periods (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Results reveal a strong correlation between isothermality and habitat suitability, with higher isothermality enhancing the habitat conditions for Asian elephants. Among the SDMs, the random forest model demonstrated the highest performance. Projected scenarios indicate significant habitat fragmentation by 2061–2080, heightening the risk of species’ vulnerability. Specifically, in SSP 245, the north zone is anticipated to experience a higher rate of habitat loss (588.443 km²/year), whereas, in SSP 370, the west zone is expected to face a more severe rate of habitat loss (1,798.56 km²/year). The eastern zone, which includes Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, and southern Myanmar, is notably at risk, with an estimated habitat loss of 14.8 million hectares. Anticipated changes in climate and land cover will impact the availability of essential resources such as food, water, and shelter, potentially driving the species to relocate to different elevation belts. The outcomes of the consensus map highlighting critical habitats and future fragmentation scenarios will support effective conservation and management strategies for the species.
{"title":"Predicting suitable habitats for Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) in Tropical Asia under changing climatic scenarios","authors":"Kazi Al Muqtadir Abir , Biplob Dey , Mohammad Redowan , Ashraful Haque , Romel Ahmed","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100279","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100279","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Protecting rare, endemic, and endangered species requires careful habitat evaluation to set strategic plans for mitigating biodiversity loss and prioritizing conservation goals. The endangered Asian elephant (<em>Elephas maximus</em>) exemplifies the urgent need for targeted conservation efforts, given its challenging habitat conditions. This study examines the impact of climate and land use changes on the suitable habitat distribution of Asian elephants. Utilizing ten predictor variables, including climatic, topographic, and land use data, and employing six ensemble Species Distribution Models (SDMs) alongside Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data, the study estimates spatial changes and potential habitat expansions for Asian elephants across Tropical Asia. Occurrence data were gathered from field surveys in Bangladesh and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database for Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Laos, Nepal, Thailand, and Vietnam. To evaluate habitat suitability, the analysis considered two distinct socioeconomic pathways (SSP 245 and SSP 370) across two future periods (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Results reveal a strong correlation between isothermality and habitat suitability, with higher isothermality enhancing the habitat conditions for Asian elephants. Among the SDMs, the random forest model demonstrated the highest performance. Projected scenarios indicate significant habitat fragmentation by 2061–2080, heightening the risk of species’ vulnerability. Specifically, in SSP 245, the north zone is anticipated to experience a higher rate of habitat loss (588.443 km²/year), whereas, in SSP 370, the west zone is expected to face a more severe rate of habitat loss (1,798.56 km²/year). The eastern zone, which includes Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, and southern Myanmar, is notably at risk, with an estimated habitat loss of 14.8 million hectares. Anticipated changes in climate and land cover will impact the availability of essential resources such as food, water, and shelter, potentially driving the species to relocate to different elevation belts. The outcomes of the consensus map highlighting critical habitats and future fragmentation scenarios will support effective conservation and management strategies for the species.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 2","pages":"Article 100279"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143512689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-05DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100278
Yongyang Wang , Yulei Xie , Lei Chen , Pan Zhang
Enhancing urban resilience is a powerful strategy for mitigating floods caused by both intensive human activities and climate change. However, existing studies have limitations, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive framework for assessing flood resilience based on the resilience evolution process. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop an integrated framework for evaluating urban flood resilience, incorporating Bayesian networks and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to explore the driving mechanisms behind flood resilience with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in China as a case study. The results indicated that: (1) inundation risk, population risk, and flooding mitigation were the most critical indicators influencing urban flood resilience; (2) Chengde and Tangshan emerged as key areas with high resistance capabilities, while Zhangjiakou and Baoding showed notable strengths in functional recovery; (3) the average value of urban flood resilience decreased from 0.58 under a 5-year rainfall return period to 0.54 under a 100-year rainfall return period, representing a 5.6 % decrease, with Zhangjiakou exhibiting the highest flood resilience. These findings are of significant importance for policymakers involved in flood risk management.
{"title":"Identifying key drivers of urban flood resilience for effective management: Insights and implications","authors":"Yongyang Wang , Yulei Xie , Lei Chen , Pan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100278","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100278","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Enhancing urban resilience is a powerful strategy for mitigating floods caused by both intensive human activities and climate change. However, existing studies have limitations, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive framework for assessing flood resilience based on the resilience evolution process. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop an integrated framework for evaluating urban flood resilience, incorporating Bayesian networks and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to explore the driving mechanisms behind flood resilience with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in China as a case study. The results indicated that: (1) inundation risk, population risk, and flooding mitigation were the most critical indicators influencing urban flood resilience; (2) Chengde and Tangshan emerged as key areas with high resistance capabilities, while Zhangjiakou and Baoding showed notable strengths in functional recovery; (3) the average value of urban flood resilience decreased from 0.58 under a 5-year rainfall return period to 0.54 under a 100-year rainfall return period, representing a 5.6 % decrease, with Zhangjiakou exhibiting the highest flood resilience. These findings are of significant importance for policymakers involved in flood risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100278"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143863523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-05DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100277
Eglė Baltranaitė , Miguel Inácio , Luís Valença Pinto , Katarzyna Bogdziewicz , Jorge Rocha , Eduardo Gomes , Paulo Pereira
Coastal tourism holds substantial development potential. However, coastal ecosystems are affected by tourism development, which limits the supply of ecosystem services (ES). This study aims to conduct a systematic literature review on the impacts of tourism on coastal and marine ES using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-alpha Methods. We initially identified 640 studies by searching titles, abstracts, and keywords. After screening, only 50 studies met the criteria for inclusion in the review. The results showed a significant increase in publications between 2011 and 2023. Most studies were conducted in Europe, Asia, and North and Central America. The most used ES classifications were MEA and CICES. Most studies concentrated on the ES supply dimension (43 studies; 86 %). Cultural ES (47 studies; 94 %) were researched more than provisioning (28 studies; 56 %) and regulating & maintenance (29 studies; 58 %) sections. Regarding cultural ES, most studies were focused on “Physical and experiential interactions with the natural environment” (34 studies; 68 %) and on provisioning ES on “Wild animals (terrestrial and aquatic) for nutrition, materials or energy” (18 studies; 36 %). Quantitative and mixed methods were the most used in the reviewed studies. Most studies identified pressures from “Tourism, urbanisation, and population increase” (27 studies; 54 %) and focused on “Integrative/ common management strategies” (20 studies; 40 %). Only a few of the studies’ results have been validated by external data (10 studies; 20 %). This study provides an overview of the most assessed marine and coastal ES, where studies are needed with more comprehensive geographic coverage.
{"title":"Tourism impacts on marine and coastal ecosystem services: A systematic review","authors":"Eglė Baltranaitė , Miguel Inácio , Luís Valença Pinto , Katarzyna Bogdziewicz , Jorge Rocha , Eduardo Gomes , Paulo Pereira","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100277","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100277","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coastal tourism holds substantial development potential. However, coastal ecosystems are affected by tourism development, which limits the supply of ecosystem services (ES). This study aims to conduct a systematic literature review on the impacts of tourism on coastal and marine ES using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-alpha Methods. We initially identified 640 studies by searching titles, abstracts, and keywords. After screening, only 50 studies met the criteria for inclusion in the review. The results showed a significant increase in publications between 2011 and 2023. Most studies were conducted in Europe, Asia, and North and Central America. The most used ES classifications were MEA and CICES. Most studies concentrated on the ES supply dimension (43 studies; 86 %). Cultural ES (47 studies; 94 %) were researched more than provisioning (28 studies; 56 %) and regulating & maintenance (29 studies; 58 %) sections. Regarding cultural ES, most studies were focused on “<em>Physical and experiential interactions with the natural environment”</em> (34 studies; 68 %) and on provisioning ES on “<em>Wild animals (terrestrial and aquatic) for nutrition, materials or energy</em>” (18 studies; 36 %)<em>.</em> Quantitative and mixed methods were the most used in the reviewed studies. Most studies identified pressures from “<em>Tourism, urbanisation, and population increase</em>” (27 studies; 54 %) and focused on “<em>Integrative/ common management strategies</em>” (20 studies; 40 %). Only a few of the studies’ results have been validated by external data (10 studies; 20 %). This study provides an overview of the most assessed marine and coastal ES, where studies are needed with more comprehensive geographic coverage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 2","pages":"Article 100277"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.008
Lingli Zuo , Guohua Liu , Junyan Zhao , Jiajia Li , Shuyuan Zheng , Xukun Su
Ecosystems play a pivotal role in advancing Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by providing indispensable and resilient ecosystem services (ESs). However, the limited analysis of spatiotemporal heterogeneity often restricts the recognition of ESs’ roles in attaining SDGs and landscape planning. We selected 183 counties in the Sichuan Province as the study area and mapped 10 SDGs and 7 ESs from 2000 to 2020. We used correlation analysis, principal component analysis, Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model, and self-organizing maps to reveal the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the impacts of the bundle of ESs on the SDGs and to develop spatial planning and management strategies. The results showed that (1) SDGs were improved in all counties, with SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) exhibiting poor performance. Western Sichuan demonstrated stronger performance in environment-related SDGs in the Sichuan Province, while the Sichuan Basin showed better progress in socio-economic-related SDGs; (2) habitat quality, carbon sequestration, air pollution removal, and soil retention significantly influenced the development of 9 SDGs; (3) supporting, regulating, and provisioning service bundles have persistent and stable spatiotemporal heterogeneity effects on SDG1, SDG8, SDG11, SDG13, and SDG15. These findings substantiate the need for integrated management of multiple ESs and facilitate the regional achievement of SDGs in geographically intricate areas.
{"title":"Spatiotemporal heterogeneity management: Optimizing the critical role of ecosystem services in achieving Sustainable Development Goals","authors":"Lingli Zuo , Guohua Liu , Junyan Zhao , Jiajia Li , Shuyuan Zheng , Xukun Su","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ecosystems play a pivotal role in advancing Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by providing indispensable and resilient ecosystem services (ESs). However, the limited analysis of spatiotemporal heterogeneity often restricts the recognition of ESs’ roles in attaining SDGs and landscape planning. We selected 183 counties in the Sichuan Province as the study area and mapped 10 SDGs and 7 ESs from 2000 to 2020. We used correlation analysis, principal component analysis, Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model, and self-organizing maps to reveal the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the impacts of the bundle of ESs on the SDGs and to develop spatial planning and management strategies. The results showed that (1) SDGs were improved in all counties, with SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) exhibiting poor performance. Western Sichuan demonstrated stronger performance in environment-related SDGs in the Sichuan Province, while the Sichuan Basin showed better progress in socio-economic-related SDGs; (2) habitat quality, carbon sequestration, air pollution removal, and soil retention significantly influenced the development of 9 SDGs; (3) supporting, regulating, and provisioning service bundles have persistent and stable spatiotemporal heterogeneity effects on SDG1, SDG8, SDG11, SDG13, and SDG15. These findings substantiate the need for integrated management of multiple ESs and facilitate the regional achievement of SDGs in geographically intricate areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 1","pages":"Article 100211"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143139301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.005
Lingxue Yu , Ye Liu , Fengqin Yan , Lijie Lu , Xuan Li , Shuwen Zhang , Jiuchun Yang
Phenology shifts influence regional climate by altering energy, and water fluxes through biophysical processes. However, a quantitative understanding of the phenological control on vegetation’s biophysical feedbacks to regional climate remains elusive. Using long-term remote sensing observations and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations, we investigated vegetation phenology changes from 2003 to 2020 and quantified their biophysical controls on the regional climate in Northeast China. Our findings elucidated that earlier green-up contributed to a prolonged growing season in forests, while advanced green-up and delayed dormancy extended the growing season in croplands. This prolonged presence and increased maximum green cover intensified climate-vegetation interactions, resulting in more significant surface cooling in croplands compared to forests. Surface cooling from forest phenology changes was prominent during May’s green-up (-0.53 ± 0.07 °C), while crop phenology changes induced cooling throughout the growing season, particularly in June (-0.47 ± 0.15 °C), July (-0.48 ± 0.11 °C), and September (-0.28 ± 0.09 °C). Furthermore, we unraveled the contributions of different biophysical pathways to temperature feedback using a two-resistance attribution model, with aerodynamic resistance emerging as the dominant factor. Crucially, our findings underscored that the land surface temperature (LST) sensitivity, exhibited substantially higher values in croplands rather than temperate forests. These strong sensitivities, coupled with the projected continuation of phenology shifts, portend further growing season cooling in croplands. These findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the intricate feedback mechanisms between vegetation phenology and surface temperature, emphasizing the significance of vegetation phenology dynamics in shaping regional climate pattern and seasonality.
{"title":"Phenological control of vegetation biophysical feedbacks to the regional climate","authors":"Lingxue Yu , Ye Liu , Fengqin Yan , Lijie Lu , Xuan Li , Shuwen Zhang , Jiuchun Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Phenology shifts influence regional climate by altering energy, and water fluxes through biophysical processes. However, a quantitative understanding of the phenological control on vegetation’s biophysical feedbacks to regional climate remains elusive. Using long-term remote sensing observations and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations, we investigated vegetation phenology changes from 2003 to 2020 and quantified their biophysical controls on the regional climate in Northeast China. Our findings elucidated that earlier green-up contributed to a prolonged growing season in forests, while advanced green-up and delayed dormancy extended the growing season in croplands. This prolonged presence and increased maximum green cover intensified climate-vegetation interactions, resulting in more significant surface cooling in croplands compared to forests. Surface cooling from forest phenology changes was prominent during May’s green-up (-0.53 ± 0.07 °C), while crop phenology changes induced cooling throughout the growing season, particularly in June (-0.47 ± 0.15 °C), July (-0.48 ± 0.11 °C), and September (-0.28 ± 0.09 °C). Furthermore, we unraveled the contributions of different biophysical pathways to temperature feedback using a two-resistance attribution model, with aerodynamic resistance emerging as the dominant factor. Crucially, our findings underscored that the land surface temperature (LST) sensitivity, exhibited substantially higher values in croplands rather than temperate forests. These strong sensitivities, coupled with the projected continuation of phenology shifts, portend further growing season cooling in croplands. These findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the intricate feedback mechanisms between vegetation phenology and surface temperature, emphasizing the significance of vegetation phenology dynamics in shaping regional climate pattern and seasonality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 1","pages":"Article 100202"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141692471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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