Geography and Sustainability最新文献_第10页

Evaluating the effectiveness of the Shan-Shui Initiatives in China 评估中国“山水计划”的有效性

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100271

Yutong Jiang , Xinghao Shan , Qingyu Liu , Yu Feng , Yuyang Lai , Kaiji Xu , Jinman Wang , Zhongke Bai , Xiaoming Feng

The Shan-Shui Initiative has attracted global attention in massively contained ecological deterioration and restored millions of hectares of land in China. There are high hopes for this new combination of protection, restoration, and management of ecosystems, its overall benefits, however, remain uncertain. Here, we employed ecosystem service (ES) indicators to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of all pilot projects since 2016 at the national scale. Results show that after the implementation of Shan-Shui Initiative, ES have significantly improved, with increases in water yield (14.3 %), carbon sequestration (13.7 %), soil conservation (6.5 %), windbreak sand fixation (5.0 %), and habitat quality (0.7 %). The changes in ES were driven by both the Shan-Shui Initiative and climate change. Projects with longer implementation periods showed a more pronounced trend of growth in ESs, particularly evident in the ecological space. The spillover effects were widely present and the prevalence of positive spillover effects was notably greater than that of negative ones. Furthermore, the diverse interventions implemented in the Shan-Shui project had varying impacts on ES across different regions. Overall, these interventions showed a positive influence on ESs, although the degree of trade-off showed a south-high and north-low pattern. This highlights the necessity for ecological restoration efforts to carefully consider regional differences. This study may provide policy guidance for optimizing the layout and sustainable management of Shan-Shui ecological restoration projects.

“山水计划”因大规模遏制生态恶化和恢复数百万公顷土地而引起全球关注。人们对这种保护、恢复和管理生态系统的新组合寄予厚望，然而，其总体效益仍不确定。本文采用生态系统服务（ES）指标对2016年以来全国范围内所有试点项目的有效性进行了定量评价。结果表明，实施“山水行动”后，生态系统得到了显著改善，产水量增加14.3% %，固碳量增加13.7% %，土壤保持力增加6.5% %，防风林固沙力增加5.0 %，生境质量增加0.7 %。ES的变化是由“山水倡议”和气候变化共同驱动的。项目实施周期越长，可持续发展空间的增长趋势越明显，特别是在生态空间。溢出效应广泛存在，且正向溢出效应明显大于负面溢出效应。此外，在“山水”项目中实施的各种干预措施对不同地区的ES产生了不同的影响。总体而言，这些干预措施显示出对ESs的积极影响，尽管权衡程度呈现出南高北低的模式。这凸显了生态恢复工作必须认真考虑区域差异。本研究可为山水生态修复项目的优化布局和可持续管理提供政策指导。

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引用次数: 0

Land structure change and ecological effects under future development scenarios in Tarim River Basin, Central Asia 未来发展情景下塔里木河流域土地结构变化及其生态效应

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100300

Yifeng Hou, Yaning Chen, Zhi Li, Yupeng Li, Fan Sun

Soil and water matching in a land basin is important for securing land demand, alleviating human-land conflicts, and promoting sustainable development in the region. The Tarim River Basin (TRB) is the largest inland river basin in China and primarily sustains an agricultural economy centered around oases. This study employs the Patch-generating Land-Use Simulation (PLUS) model to forecast the changing patterns of land use across various future scenarios. The connection between land development and the ecological environment is examined through the lens of relative ecological value and ecological impact. The results indicate that: (1) From 1992 to 2020, the ecology of the basin showed an improving trend, with the area of new cropland increasing by 18,850.51 km² at a growth rate of 56.13 %. Grassland area increased by 10,235.29 km² and barren land area decreased by 20,597.29 km². (2) Under the four tested scenarios of Natural Development, Cropland Conservation, Ecological Protection, and Urban Expansion (scenarios I–Ⅳ, respectively), the PLUS results for the year 2050 show an increase in cropland area of 12.69 % under Scenario Ⅱ, an increase in grassland area of 20,374.82 km² under Scenario Ⅳ, and an increase in built-up land area of 1,105.57 km² under Scenario Ⅲ. (3) A simulation of the basin’s ecology in 2050 shows a significant improvement trend under Scenario Ⅳ. Specifically, the development of a large amount of barren land into grassland and woodland has significant ecological benefits, with a contribution rate of 61.88 % to 70.18 %. This study provides a strong scientific foundation for future land management and ecological sustainable development in the TRB.

土地流域的水土匹配对于保障土地需求、缓解人地冲突、促进区域可持续发展具有重要意义。塔里木河流域（TRB）是中国最大的内陆河流域，主要维持着以绿洲为中心的农业经济。本研究采用斑块生成土地利用模拟（PLUS）模型对未来不同情景下的土地利用变化模式进行预测。土地开发与生态环境之间的联系是通过相对生态价值和生态影响的镜头来检查的。结果表明：(1)1992 - 2020年，流域生态呈现改善趋势，新增耕地面积增加18850.51 km2，增长率为56.13%；草地面积增加10235.29 km2，荒地面积减少20597.29 km2。(2)在自然发展、耕地保护、生态保护和城市扩张4个情景（情景1 ~Ⅳ）下，2050年的PLUS结果显示，情景Ⅱ下耕地面积增加12.69%，情景Ⅳ下草地面积增加20374.82 km2，情景Ⅲ下建成区面积增加1105.57 km2。(3) 2050年流域生态模拟结果显示，Ⅳ情景下流域生态有明显改善趋势。其中，将大量荒地开发成草地和林地具有显著的生态效益，贡献率为61.88% ~ 70.18%。该研究为未来藏区土地管理和生态可持续发展提供了有力的科学依据。

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引用次数: 0

Opportunity for mitigating soil loss by water erosion in cropland through crop switching and improved management in China 中国通过改种和改进管理减少农田水土流失的机会

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100262

Keke Li , Zhanhang Zhou , Zhen Wang , Yi Zeng , Klaus Hubacek , Pasquale Borrelli , Cai Li , Wenting Zhang , Zhongci Deng , Jingyu Wang , Zhihua Shi

Cropland is persistently affected by soil loss by water erosion in China, which causes economic loss and threatens soil health. Integrating crop switching and improved management provides a promising strategy for controlling soil loss by water erosion in cropland and promoting sustainable agriculture. However, optimizing crop composition with fewer inputs involves balancing agricultural resource use with environmental costs. Aiming to explore the potential of crop switching as a strategy for mitigating soil erosion in cropland, we develop a spatial optimization model that redistributes the sown areas of different crops in each prefecture-level city based on existing resource availability. Our findings gained from our simulations show that crop switching in China alone can reduce total soil erosion in cropland by an estimated 13 %. Furthermore, combining crop switching with improved agricultural management practices can further reduce soil erosion in cropland by an estimated 25 %. Cereals including maize, wheat, and rice demonstrate significant potential for reducing soil erosion in cropland. Shifting major maize-producing areas northward could result in a substantial decrease in soil erosion, ranging from 10 % to 19 % of historical soil erosion in cropland. These results offer implications for formulating regional strategy in mitigating soil erosion challenges in China while maximizing the benefits from existing agricultural resource.

中国的耕地长期受到水土流失的影响，造成经济损失并威胁土壤健康。整合作物转换和改进管理为控制耕地水蚀造成的土壤流失和促进可持续农业发展提供了一个前景广阔的战略。然而，以更少的投入优化作物构成涉及农业资源利用与环境成本之间的平衡。为了探索作物转换作为减轻耕地水土流失策略的潜力，我们建立了一个空间优化模型，根据现有的资源可用性重新分配各地级市不同作物的播种面积。我们的模拟结果表明，仅在中国进行作物转换就能将耕地水土流失总量减少约 13%。此外，将作物转换与改进农业管理措施相结合，估计可进一步减少 25% 的耕地土壤侵蚀。包括玉米、小麦和水稻在内的谷物在减少耕地土壤侵蚀方面具有巨大潜力。将玉米主产区北移可大幅减少土壤侵蚀，减少幅度为过去耕地土壤侵蚀的 10% 到 19%。这些结果为制定区域战略以减轻中国的水土流失挑战，同时最大限度地利用现有农业资源提供了启示。

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引用次数: 0

Research framework for integrated geography: Composite driving–system evolution–coupling mechanism–synergistic regulation 综合地理学研究框架：复合驱动-系统演化-耦合机制-协同调节

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100321

Wenwu Zhao , Zizhao Ni , Caichun Yin , Yanxu Liu , Paulo Pereira

Amid ongoing global environmental change and the critical pursuit of sustainable development, human–environment systems are exhibiting increasingly complex dynamic evolutions and spatial relationships, underscoring an urgent need for innovative research frameworks. Integrated geography synthesizes physical geography, human geography, and geographic information science, providing key frameworks for understanding complex human–environment systems. This editorial proposes an emerging research framework for integrated geography—“Composite driving–System evolution–Coupling mechanism–Synergistic regulation (CSCS)”—based on key issues such as climate change, biodiversity loss, resource scarcity, and social–ecological interactions, which have been highlighted in both recent critical literature on human–environment systems and UN assessment reports. The framework starts with diverse composite driving forces, extends to the evolution of human–environment system structures, processes, and functions that these drivers induce, explores couplings within human–environment systems, and calls for regulation aimed at sustainable development in synergies. Major research frontiers include understanding the cascading “evolution–coupling” effects of shocks; measuring system resilience, thresholds, and safe and just operating space boundaries; clarifying linkage mechanisms across scales; and achieving synergistic outcomes for multi-objective sustainability. This framework will help promote the interdisciplinary integration and development of integrated geography, and provide geographical solutions for the global sustainable development agenda.

在持续的全球环境变化和对可持续发展的迫切追求中，人类-环境系统呈现出日益复杂的动态演变和空间关系，迫切需要创新的研究框架。综合地理学综合了自然地理学、人文地理学和地理信息科学，为理解复杂的人-环境系统提供了关键框架。本文基于气候变化、生物多样性丧失、资源稀缺、社会生态相互作用等近年来人类环境系统的重要文献和联合国评估报告所强调的关键问题，提出了一个新兴的综合地理学研究框架——“复合驱动-系统进化-耦合机制-协同调节（CSCS）”。该框架从多种复合驱动力出发，延伸到这些驱动力所引发的人-环境系统结构、过程和功能的演变，探索人-环境系统内部的耦合，并呼吁在协同作用中进行旨在可持续发展的监管。主要的研究前沿包括理解冲击的级联“进化耦合”效应；测量系统弹性、阈值和安全、公正的操作空间边界；明确跨尺度联动机制；实现多目标可持续性的协同效应。这一框架将有助于促进综合地理学的跨学科整合和发展，为全球可持续发展议程提供地理解决方案。

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引用次数: 0

Changing of the coordination of socioeconomic development and the environment as sustainable development progresses 可持续发展过程中社会经济发展与环境协调的变化

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.09.009

Dongliang Dang , Xiaobing Li , Xin Lyu , Shiliang Liu , Huashun Dou , Mengyuan Li , Kai Wang , Wanyu Cao

The relationship between socioeconomic development and the environment is intimately linked with the level of regional sustainable development. Clarifying the evolution pattern of this relationship during the sustainable development progress is crucial for achieving all of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), but less research has focused on this problem. Here, we have utilized statistical and remote sensing data from 290 municipal units in China to analyze the evolution of the coupling coordination degree (CCD) between socioeconomic development and the environment along a progression of sustainable development measured by the SDG Index. The results show that the hotspot areas of CCD are concentrated in coastal regions, gradually decreasing as they move inland. Additionally, as sustainable development progresses, both socioeconomic and environment levels exhibit a nonlinear rise. The coupling coordination between the two demonstrates a pattern of initial increasing, then decreasing, and finally increasing again, which may be related to changes in industrial structure. Our study delves deeply into the patterns of evolution in the relationship between socioeconomic and environments, exploring the challenges and opportunities faced by regions at different stages of sustainable development. The findings can deepen our understanding of sustainable development and provide policy suggestions and theoretical support for achieving SDGs.

社会经济发展与环境的关系与区域可持续发展水平密切相关。在可持续发展进程中，厘清这一关系的演变模式对于实现所有可持续发展目标至关重要，但这一问题的研究较少。本文利用中国290个地市的统计和遥感数据，分析了可持续发展指数衡量的社会经济发展与环境耦合协调度（CCD）在可持续发展进程中的演变。结果表明：CCD的热点区域主要集中在沿海地区，随着热点区域向内陆移动而逐渐减少；此外，随着可持续发展的推进，社会经济和环境水平均呈现非线性上升。两者的耦合协调表现出先增加后减少再增加的格局，这可能与产业结构的变化有关。我们的研究深入探讨了社会经济与环境关系的演变模式，探讨了区域在可持续发展的不同阶段所面临的挑战和机遇。研究结果可以加深我们对可持续发展的理解，为实现可持续发展目标提供政策建议和理论支持。

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引用次数: 0

Ecosystem services mapping and modelling. Where is the validation? 生态系统服务映射和建模。验证在哪里？

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100286

Paulo Pereira , Miguel Inacio , Damia Barcelo , Wenwu Zhao

Ecosystem services (ES) mapping and models have advanced in recent years. Improvements were made, and the assessments have transitioned from qualitative to quantitative. Although this is an important advancement, the ES mapping and modelling validation step has been overlooked, and this raises an important question in the credibility of the outcomes. This has been an important and unsolved issue in the ES research community that needs to be tackled. This highlight paper discusses the importance of validating single ES mapping and models. Conducting this using field or proximal/remote sensing raw data and not data from other models or stakeholder evaluation is important. A validation step should be mandatory in ES frameworks since it can assess the models’ veracity, contribute to identifying the model’s weaknesses/strengths and ultimately represent a scientific advance in the field. This is easier to apply to the biophysical mapping and models of regulating and provisioning ES than to cultural ES, as the latter rely more on perception and cultural contexts. Also, ES supply models are easier to validate than demand and flow models. Robust and well-grounded models are essential for ensuring the reliability of individual ES maps and models and should be integrated into decision-making processes. Although several challenges arise related to the costs of data collection, in several cases prohibitive, and the time and the expertise needed to conduct this sampling and analysis, this is likely an imperative step that needs to be considered in the future. This will be beneficial in establishing ES research and improving decision-making and wellbeing.

近年来，生态系统服务制图和模型研究取得了新的进展。进行了改进，评估已从定性过渡到定量。虽然这是一个重要的进步，但ES映射和建模验证步骤被忽视了，这对结果的可信度提出了一个重要的问题。这一直是胚胎干细胞研究界需要解决的一个重要而未解决的问题。这篇重点文章讨论了验证单个ES映射和模型的重要性。使用实地或近地/遥感原始数据而不是来自其他模型或利益相关者评估的数据来进行这项工作是很重要的。验证步骤在ES框架中应该是强制性的，因为它可以评估模型的准确性，有助于识别模型的弱点/优势，并最终代表该领域的科学进步。这更容易应用于生物物理映射和调节和提供ES的模型，而不是文化ES，因为后者更多地依赖于感知和文化背景。此外，ES供应模型比需求和流程模型更容易验证。稳健和基础良好的模型对于确保个别ES地图和模型的可靠性至关重要，并应纳入决策过程。尽管出现了一些与数据收集成本相关的挑战（在某些情况下令人望而却步），以及进行这种抽样和分析所需的时间和专业知识，但这可能是未来需要考虑的必要步骤。这将有利于建立ES研究，改善决策和福祉。

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引用次数: 0

Advancing a climate smart strategy for biodiversity conservation in protected areas on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau 推进青藏高原保护区生物多样性保护气候智慧型战略

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100264

Xuan Li , Yanzheng Yang , Pengxiang Zhao , Da Lv , Jun Zhao , Zijian Lu , Ping Huang , Jingyi Zhu , Hao Song , Binqiang Bao , Jalal Kassout , Ruonan Li , Weihua Xu , Hua Zheng

The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau serves as an extensive gene pool for plateau species and a crucial focal point for global biodiversity conservation. Being a climate-sensitive region, the impacts of climate change have led to habitat loss, population extinction, and ecological imbalances, posing formidable challenges to the sustained effectiveness of existing protected areas. Despite substantial advancements in understanding species distribution, assessing habitat changes, and evaluating the efficiency of protected areas in recent decades, comprehensive evaluations encompassing all protected species are lacking, impeding conservation strategies. In this study, we gathered 137,856 observations, encompassing 2,605 species, and utilized the MaxEnt model to simulate changes in the current distribution patterns of endangered species and suitable habitats under future scenarios. We further proposed a climate smart approach to optimize the boundaries of protected areas in response to climate change. Key findings indicate that (1) the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau harbors 2,605 endangered species, constituting 34.04 % of the total endangered species catalog in China; (2) current high-adaptation habitats of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau cover a mere 7 % of the plateau, showing minimal alteration in protected efficiency under climate change scenarios (0.50 % increase); (3) incorporating the effects of climate change in adjusting protected area boundaries enhances their efficiency by an average of 20.52 %. Our proposed methodology holds promise for safeguarding endangered species on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and offers significant implications for analogous regions worldwide.

青藏高原是丰富的高原物种基因库，也是全球生物多样性保护的重要焦点。作为气候敏感地区，气候变化的影响导致栖息地丧失、种群灭绝和生态失衡，对现有保护区的持续有效性提出了巨大挑战。尽管近几十年来在物种分布、栖息地变化评估和保护区效率评估方面取得了实质性进展，但缺乏对所有受保护物种的全面评估，阻碍了保护策略的实施。本研究收集了137,856个观测数据，涵盖2,605个物种，并利用MaxEnt模型模拟了未来情景下濒危物种的分布格局和适宜栖息地的变化。我们进一步提出了一种气候智能方法来优化保护区边界以应对气候变化。结果表明：(1)青藏高原共有濒危物种2605种，占全国濒危物种目录总数的34.04%；(2)青藏高原目前的高适应生境仅占高原面积的7%，气候变化情景下的保护效率变化不大（增加0.50%）；(3)纳入气候变化影响的保护区边界调整效率平均提高20.52%。本文提出的方法对青藏高原濒危物种的保护具有重要意义，对世界类似地区具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Global meta-analysis reveals different grazing management strategies change greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential in grasslands 全球元分析表明，不同的放牧管理策略改变了草原温室气体排放和全球变暖潜势

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.09.012

Lingfan Wan , Guohua Liu , Xukun Su

Grazing management significantly influences greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the global warming potential (GWP) in grasslands. Yet, a limited understanding of the impact of grazing and grazing exclusion on GHG emissions and GWP in grasslands hinders progress towards grassland ecosystem sustainability and GHG mitigation. We conducted a global meta-analysis of 75 published studies to investigate the effects of grazing and grazing exclusion on methane (CH₄), carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrous oxide (N₂O), and GWP. Our results revealed that grazing and grazing exclusion significantly increased the CO₂ and CH₄ emissions, respectively. The responses of GHG emissions and GWP to grazing were regulated by grazing intensity and elevation. We also found that light grazing significantly decreased GWP but heavy grazing increased GWP. Reducing grazing intensity was a simple and effective method through stocking rate adjustment, which promised a large GHG mitigation potential. Our results demonstrated that GHG emissions increased with elevation under grassland grazing, implying that irrational grazing in high-elevation grasslands promoted GHG emissions. In comparison with grazing, only long-term grazing exclusion reduced the GWP, and CH₄ emissions enhanced with grazing exclusion duration. However, long-term grazing exclusion may shift economic demand and grazing burden to other areas. Overall, we suggested that regulating the grazing intensity, rather than grazing exclusion, was an effective way to reduce GHG emissions. Our study contributed to the enhancement of sustainable grazing management practices for GHG balance and GWP in global grasslands, and offered a global picture for understanding the changes in GHG emissions and GWP under different grazing management regimes.

放牧管理对草地温室气体（GHG）排放和全球变暖潜势（GWP）有显著影响。然而，对放牧和不放牧对草原温室气体排放和全球升温潜能值的影响的有限理解阻碍了草原生态系统可持续性和温室气体减缓的进展。我们对75项已发表的研究进行了荟萃分析，以研究放牧和不放牧对甲烷（CH4）、二氧化碳（CO2）、氧化亚氮（N2O）和全球变暖潜值的影响。结果表明，放牧和不放牧分别显著增加了CO2和CH4的排放。温室气体排放和全球升温潜能值对放牧的响应受放牧强度和海拔高度的调节。我们还发现，轻度放牧显著降低了GWP，而重度放牧增加了GWP。通过调整载畜率降低放牧强度是一种简单有效的方法，具有较大的温室气体减排潜力。结果表明：草地放牧条件下温室气体排放量随海拔升高而增加，表明高海拔草地的不合理放牧促进了温室气体排放；与放牧相比，只有长期不放牧降低了GWP， CH4排放量随不放牧时间的延长而增加。然而，长期禁牧可能会将经济需求和放牧负担转移到其他地区。综上所述，调整放牧强度而非完全不放牧是减少温室气体排放的有效途径。该研究有助于加强可持续放牧管理措施对全球草原温室气体平衡和全球升温潜能值的影响，并为了解不同放牧管理制度下温室气体排放和全球升温潜能值的变化提供一个全局图景。

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引用次数: 0

Enhancing agricultural sustainability: Optimizing crop planting structures and spatial layouts within the water-land-energy-economy-environment-food nexus 提高农业可持续性：优化水-陆-能-经济-环境-粮食关系下的作物种植结构和空间布局

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.100258

Haowei Wu , Zhihui Li , Xiangzheng Deng , Zhe Zhao

In the new phase of sustainable development, agriculture is seeking sustainable management of the water-land-energy-economy-environment-food nexus. At present, there are few studies on optimizing crop planting structure and analyzing its spatial layout with consideration of natural and socio-economic factors. Herein, we proposed a framework for addressing this issue. In this framework, the NSGA-II algorithm was used to construct the multi-objective optimization model of crop planting structures with consideration of water and energy consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, economic benefits, as well as food, land, and water security constraints, while the model for planting spatial layout optimization was established with consideration of crop suitability using the MaxEnt model and the improved Hungarian algorithm. This framework was further applied in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China (BSRNC) for analyzing optimized crop planting structures and spatial layouts of three main crops (rice, maize, and soybean) under various scenarios. This study showed that the sown area of rice in the BSRNC decreased by up to 40.73 % and 35.30 % in the environmental priority scenario and economic-environmental balance scenario, respectively, whereas that of soybean increased by up to 112.44 % and 63.31 %, respectively. In the economic priority scenario, the sown area of rice increased by up to 93.98 %. Expanding the sown area of soybean was effective in reducing GHG emissions. On the contrary, rice production led to greater environmental costs though it provided higher economic returns. Among the three crops, maize exhibited an advantage in balancing environmental and economic benefits. Hegang-Jixi area in the northeast of the BSRNC was identified as the key area with the most intense crop planting transfer among different scenarios. Overall, this framework provides a new methodology for optimizing crop planting structures and spatial layouts with consideration of the nexus of various factors. Moreover, the case study demonstrates the applicability and expansion potential of the framework in the fields of sustainable agricultural development and food security assurance.

在可持续发展的新阶段，农业正在寻求水-陆-能-经济-环境-粮食关系的可持续管理。目前，考虑自然因素和社会经济因素的作物种植结构优化和空间布局分析研究较少。在此，我们提出了一个解决这一问题的框架。在该框架下，利用NSGA-II算法构建了考虑水能耗、温室气体排放、经济效益以及粮食、土地和水安全约束的作物种植结构多目标优化模型，利用MaxEnt模型和改进的Hungarian算法建立了考虑作物适宜性的作物种植空间布局优化模型。将该框架进一步应用于东北黑土区（BSRNC），分析了不同情景下水稻、玉米和大豆三种主要作物的优化种植结构和空间布局。结果表明，在环境优先情景和经济环境平衡情景下，水稻播种面积分别减少了40.73%和35.30%，大豆播种面积分别增加了112.44%和63.31%。在经济优先情景下，水稻播种面积增加了93.98%。扩大大豆播种面积是减少温室气体排放的有效措施。相反，水稻生产虽然提供了更高的经济回报，但却导致了更大的环境成本。在三种作物中，玉米在平衡环境效益和经济效益方面表现出优势。结果表明，不同情景下，BSRNC东北部鹤岗-鸡西地区是作物转移最强烈的重点地区。总体而言，该框架为考虑各种因素之间的联系，优化作物种植结构和空间布局提供了一种新的方法。通过实例分析，论证了该框架在农业可持续发展和粮食安全保障领域的适用性和推广潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating the climate change robustness of Canadian protected area management plans 评估加拿大保护区管理计划的气候变化稳健性

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100280

Stephanie Barr , Christopher J. Lemieux , Jen Hoesen , Brooklyn Rushton , Pamela Wright

Climate change is increasingly affecting all aspects of protected areas management from changes of species ranges to visitor experiences. Due to these impacts, there is a need for managers to take more robust approaches to considering the implications of climate change on the overall application and efficacy of protected areas management direction, including the achievement of the goals and objectives contained within management plans. Through a systematic and comprehensive content analysis approach, this study assesses the current extent to which climate change is considered in Canadian protected area management plans. Specifically, we evaluated 63 terrestrial protected area management plans against a set of climate robustness principles. Our content analysis revealed that climate change is currently not effectively factored into Canadian protected area management plans with an average climate robustness score of 18 %. Climate robustness score was not found to be correlated with protected area size, International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) management classification, or jurisdictional authority. Certain climate robustness principles received higher scores across the management plans than others. For example, the principles of ‘diverse knowledge sources’ and ‘addresses climate change’ scored relatively highly whereas ‘climate change vulnerability’ and ‘ecosystem integrity’ received the lowest scores. The lack of integration of ecological integrity considerations in management plans was a particularly noteworthy deficiency considering that this guiding principle is the primary legislative objective of many national and sub-national protected areas in Canada. From this assessment, climate change needs to be more effectively and consistently integrated into protected area management plan development and coordinated across associated planning processes. We discuss the ways in which this can be achieved, for example, by integrating scenario planning into organizational management plan development processes.

气候变化正日益影响保护区管理的各个方面，从物种范围的变化到游客体验的变化。由于这些影响，管理者需要采取更有力的方法来考虑气候变化对保护区管理方向的总体应用和有效性的影响，包括管理计划中所包含的目标和目的的实现。通过系统和全面的内容分析方法，本研究评估了目前加拿大保护区管理计划中考虑气候变化的程度。具体而言，我们根据一套气候稳健性原则评估了63个陆地保护区管理计划。我们的内容分析显示，气候变化目前没有有效地纳入加拿大保护区管理计划，平均气候稳健性得分为18%。气候稳健性得分与保护区规模、国际自然保护联盟（IUCN）管理分类或管辖权限无关。某些气候稳健性原则在管理计划中得分高于其他原则。例如，“多样化的知识来源”和“应对气候变化”的原则得分相对较高，而“气候变化脆弱性”和“生态系统完整性”的得分最低。考虑到这一指导原则是加拿大许多国家级和国家级以下保护区的主要立法目标，在管理计划中缺乏对生态完整性的考虑是一个特别值得注意的缺陷。根据这一评估，气候变化需要更有效和持续地纳入保护区管理计划的制定，并在相关规划过程中进行协调。我们讨论了实现这一目标的方法，例如，通过将场景规划集成到组织管理计划开发过程中。

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