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The urban heat Island effect: A review on predictive approaches using artificial intelligence models 城市热岛效应:人工智能模型预测方法综述
IF 3.8 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.cacint.2025.100234
Ali Najah Ahmed , Nouar AlDahoul , Nurhanani A. Aziz , Y.F. Huang , Mohsen Sherif , Ahmed El-Shafie
With the global population now exceeding 8 billion and 4.5 billion of whom residing in urban areas, rapid urbanization has contributed to a range of environmental and ecological challenges, notably the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. According to statistical data, the ten hottest years on record occurred between 2013 and 2022, underscoring the urgency of addressing urban heat issues. This study provides a comprehensive review of research on the UHI effect, analysing and classifying studies that utilize a variety of input–output datasets. It also examines predictive methods used to estimate UHI intensity, categorizing them into conventional machine learning (ML) algorithms, deep learning (DL) models, and hybrid approaches. While conventional ML algorithms remain widely used, DL and hybrid models have shown superior performance in predictive accuracy. This review aims to enhance understanding of recent advancements in UHI prediction techniques, identify limitations in current methodologies, and propose directions for future research.
随着全球人口超过80亿,其中45亿人居住在城市地区,快速城市化带来了一系列环境和生态挑战,特别是城市热岛效应。统计数据显示,有记录以来最热的10年发生在2013年至2022年之间,凸显了解决城市高温问题的紧迫性。本研究全面回顾了关于城市热岛效应的研究,对利用各种投入产出数据集的研究进行了分析和分类。它还研究了用于估计UHI强度的预测方法,将它们分为传统的机器学习(ML)算法、深度学习(DL)模型和混合方法。虽然传统的机器学习算法仍然被广泛使用,但深度学习和混合模型在预测准确性方面表现出优异的性能。本综述旨在加强对热岛预测技术最新进展的理解,确定当前方法的局限性,并提出未来研究方向。
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引用次数: 0
Urban heat typologies: impact of heatwaves on urban built environment and heat stress risk to the elderly in Darmstadt, Germany 城市热类型:热浪对城市建筑环境的影响以及德国达姆施塔特老年人的热应激风险
IF 3.8 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.cacint.2025.100231
Avikal Somvanshi, Joachim Schulze, Shahrzad Talebsafa
Climate change has made heatwaves common during German summers. The phenomenon of urban heat islands (UHIs) only worsens the adverse effects of heatwaves, especially for the elderly, defined as population aged 65+ for this study. These issues need immediate attention and redress to avoid catastrophic consequences. For this research investigation, the city of Darmstadt in Germany has been mapped for heatwaves and UHIs. An assessment has been done to derive interrelationships between them and characteristics of the built environment. Rather than applying a generic Local Climate Zones classification, the built environment has been assessed by clustering the city of Darmstadt based on the UrbanReNet catalogue—a more contextual and nuanced urban typologies-based classification developed specifically for German cities. The findings of this study show that certain urban typologies are more prone to overheating, and can also significantly influence the thermal conditions of their surroundings. The latter is established by a novel multivariate regression that employs the H3 hierarchical geospatial indexing system. Further, mapping of the elderly in Darmstadt revealed that about half of them reside in settings that are at risk of overheating during a heatwave. This study provides a novel methodology to delineate areas at maximum risk of overheating. This can help prioritize heatproofing efforts to minimize the risk of excessive heat stress by focusing on the most vulnerable.
气候变化使得热浪在德国夏季司空见惯。城市热岛(UHIs)现象只会加剧热浪的不利影响,特别是对老年人,本研究定义为65岁以上的人口。这些问题需要立即加以注意和纠正,以避免灾难性后果。在这项研究调查中,德国达姆施塔特市已经绘制了热浪和UHIs地图。已经进行了一项评估,以得出它们与建筑环境特征之间的相互关系。建筑环境的评估不是采用一般的局部气候区分类,而是基于UrbanReNet目录对达姆施塔特市进行聚类,这是一种专门为德国城市开发的基于环境和细致入微的城市类型学的分类。这项研究的结果表明,某些城市类型更容易过热,也可以显著影响其周围的热条件。后者是通过采用H3层次地理空间索引系统的一种新的多元回归建立的。此外,达姆施塔特的老年人地图显示,大约一半的老年人居住在热浪中有过热风险的环境中。这项研究提供了一种新的方法来划定过热风险最大的区域。这可以帮助优先考虑防热工作,通过关注最脆弱的人来最大限度地减少过度热应激的风险。
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引用次数: 0
The underestimated impact of parked cars in urban warming. 被低估的停车对城市变暖的影响。
IF 3.8 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.cacint.2025.100232
M. Matias , G. Mills , T. Silva , C. Girotti , A. Lopes
The urban heat island (UHI), which describes the warmer temperature over urban landscape, is the most studied climate effect of cities. Most studies focus on the surface and canopy layers, particularly in common urban configurations such as street canyons. The causes of the UHI include aspects of physical form, fabric and of functions and, while urban forms are treated as fixed (over short time periods), functions are considered dynamic. In this context, the thermal and radiative properties of street facets like roads are critical urban canopy parameters (UCPs) that are used to understand heat storage and surface-air exchanges. However, the role of vehicles, especially parked ones, in modifying these surface properties and associated UCPs has been largely overlooked. This short contribution examines the impact of parked and mobile vehicles in cities using data from Lisbon, Portugal. Our findings highlight that parked vehicles significantly alter surface thermal properties in densely built areas, where road coverage is extensive and UHI intensity is greatest. These insights underscore the need to consider parked vehicles in urban heat island studies and the potential for spatially targeted mitigation strategies, such as restricting parking in identified hotspots, constructing shading structures, and promoting light, over dark, coloured vehicles.
城市热岛(UHI)是研究最多的城市气候效应,它描述了城市景观上温度升高的情况。大多数研究集中在地表和冠层,特别是在常见的城市配置,如街道峡谷。城市热岛的原因包括物理形式、结构和功能方面,虽然城市形式被视为固定的(在短期内),但功能被认为是动态的。在这种情况下,道路等街道表面的热和辐射特性是关键的城市冠层参数(ucp),用于了解热量储存和地表空气交换。然而,车辆,特别是停放的车辆,在改变这些表面特性和相关ucp方面的作用在很大程度上被忽视了。这篇简短的文章使用来自葡萄牙里斯本的数据,研究了城市中停放和移动车辆的影响。我们的研究结果强调,在道路覆盖范围广、热岛强度最大的建筑密集地区,停放的车辆显著改变了地表热性能。这些见解强调了在城市热岛研究中考虑停放车辆的必要性,以及在空间上有针对性的缓解战略的潜力,例如限制在已确定的热点地区停车,建造遮阳结构,以及推广浅色车辆,而不是深色车辆。
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引用次数: 0
Advancing flood resilience in North African coastal Cities: A contextual analysis of Jijel, Algeria 提高北非沿海城市的抗洪能力:阿尔及利亚吉耶勒的背景分析
IF 3.8 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-08-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.cacint.2025.100233
Omayma Chabou , Youcef Lazri , Simona Mannucci , Adriana Ciardiello , Federica Rosso , Marco Ferrero
Worldwide, flood resilience strategies are increasingly moving from theoretical frameworks to on-the-ground application, especially in regions grappling with climate change and rapid urbanization. North African coastal cities face heightened flood risks driven by intensified rainfall, sea-level rise, and significant land-use transitions. This paper introduces a contextual flood resilience framework − encompassing governance, socio-economic, and environmental dimensions − and applies it to the city of Jijel, Algeria. Integrating GIS-based land-use analyses with stakeholder surveys and policy reviews, the study identifies institutional fragmentation, outdated urban planning, and informal housing as key drivers of vulnerability. Results suggest that strengthening legal and institutional frameworks, investing in adaptive infrastructure, and fostering collaborative governance are critical for long-term flood resilience. In offering targeted recommendations for North African coastal settings, this research underscores the value of a multidimensional, context-sensitive approach to addressing flood risks across a rapidly changing urban landscape.
在世界范围内,抗洪战略正日益从理论框架转向实际应用,特别是在应对气候变化和快速城市化的地区。由于降雨加剧、海平面上升和土地利用的重大转变,北非沿海城市面临着更大的洪水风险。本文介绍了一个包含治理、社会经济和环境维度的背景洪水恢复框架,并将其应用于阿尔及利亚吉耶勒市。该研究将基于gis的土地利用分析与利益相关者调查和政策审查相结合,确定了制度碎片化、过时的城市规划和非正规住房是脆弱性的主要驱动因素。研究结果表明,加强法律和制度框架,投资于适应性基础设施,促进协作治理对长期抗洪能力至关重要。这项研究为北非沿海地区提供了有针对性的建议,强调了在快速变化的城市景观中解决洪水风险的多维、情境敏感方法的价值。
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引用次数: 0
Rethinking the potential of urban agriculture as a climate resilience strategy: Evidence from Accra, Ghana 重新思考城市农业作为气候适应战略的潜力:来自加纳阿克拉的证据
IF 3.8 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.cacint.2025.100229
Gideon Baffoe , Philip Antwi-Agyei
Urban agriculture (UA) is increasingly recognized as a potent strategy for addressing contemporary urban challenges, particularly in the developing world, where rapid urbanization and climate change impacts are rising. However, the role and the extent to which UA has been integrated into national strategic policies and programmes remain underexplored in African cities, especially Accra, Ghana. This paper explores the role of UA in building climate resilience in Accra, Ghana, from the perspective of policymakers. It critically examines the extent to which UA has been integrated into national policy frameworks and identifies the barriers undermining its broader adoption and implementation. We employ a mixed-methods approach, drawing on stakeholder interviews, document analysis, and policy reviews to provide empirical insights while guided by resilience theory and the political ecology framework as analytical lenses. Stakeholder perspectives indicate that UA contributes to resilience through localized food production that supports nutritional security, the use of treated wastewater to enhance water efficiency, and the maintenance of green cover that buffers against urban heat and flooding. However, its integration into policy frameworks remains limited due to challenges such as weak institutional coordination, competing economic priorities, and governance inefficiencies. The study notes that UA holds transformative potential for climate resilience in Ghana, but its success hinges on strategic policy integration and robust implementation mechanisms. The paper proposes actionable strategies, including the formal recognition of UA zones, improved cross-agency and ministerial coordination, and the incorporation of farmer associations into decision-making processes.
城市农业日益被认为是应对当代城市挑战的有力战略,特别是在快速城市化和气候变化影响日益加剧的发展中国家。然而,在非洲城市,特别是加纳的阿克拉,普遍普及教育纳入国家战略政策和方案的作用和程度仍未得到充分探讨。本文从政策制定者的角度探讨了UA在加纳阿克拉建设气候适应能力方面的作用。它批判性地审查了普遍普及教育纳入国家政策框架的程度,并确定了阻碍其广泛采用和实施的障碍。我们采用混合方法,利用利益相关者访谈、文件分析和政策审查,以弹性理论和政治生态框架为分析视角,提供实证见解。利益相关者的观点表明,通过本地化的粮食生产来支持营养安全,利用处理过的废水来提高用水效率,以及维护绿色覆盖物来缓冲城市高温和洪水,UA有助于增强抵御能力。然而,由于机构协调薄弱、经济优先事项相互竞争以及治理效率低下等挑战,其融入政策框架的程度仍然有限。该研究指出,UA对加纳的气候适应能力具有变革性潜力,但其成功取决于战略政策整合和强有力的实施机制。本文提出了可操作的策略,包括正式承认UA区,改进跨机构和部委协调,以及将农民协会纳入决策过程。
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引用次数: 0
A modified Morris screening protocol for sensitivity analysis and calibration of green roof parameters in SWMM 一种用于SWMM中绿色屋顶参数敏感性分析和校准的改进Morris筛选方案
IF 3.9 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.cacint.2025.100228
Lihua Yang , Jie Wang , Songwen Yang , Mingming Wang , Long Li , Tie Chen , Liang Feng
In the calibration process of urban flood and non-point source pollution models, obtaining sufficient site-specific sensitive parameters and their variation trends remains challenging. In this study, a modified Morris screening method was established and used to evaluate the parameters of the green roof module in the SWMM model. This method involved fixing the values of all other parameters while varying a selected parameter X(i) within its defined range, applying multiple iterations of changes at a fixed percentage (10 %) to compute the corresponding model output values. The aim was to specify the impact and significance of hydrological parameters on runoff volume cut-off and water quality indicators under different return periods, and to further improve the prediction accuracy of the SWMM in simulating real rainfall events. Results revealed that Soil-T (soil layer thickness) and Surface-BH (surface layer storage depth) exhibited the highest sensitivity to total runoff production. Specifically, the sensitivity values of Soil-T exceeded 1.0 under 0.5-year and 1-year return periods, indicating its dominant role in runoff generation, while Surface-BH demonstrated a sensitivity value close to 2.0 at 0.5-year return period, showing its strong impact on peak flow. For these high-sensitivity parameters, the manual trial-and-error method was used for parameter refinement. Optimal simulation accuracy (ENS > 0.75) was achieved when Soil-T and Surface-BH were set within ranges of 86–95 mm and 18–22 mm, respectively, across six representative rainfall events. This study provides a new method to determine the optimal parameter combinations for calibrating the SWMM model, and its high accuracy offers a scientific basis for design and optimization of urban drainage systems, particularly in response to extreme rainfall events, which is helpful to the sustainability and resilience of cities.
在城市洪水和非点源污染模型的定标过程中,获取足够的场地敏感参数及其变化趋势是一个挑战。本文建立了一种改进的Morris筛选方法,并将其用于SWMM模型中绿色屋顶模块的参数评估。该方法包括固定所有其他参数的值,同时在其定义的范围内改变选定的参数X(i),以固定的百分比(10%)应用多次更改迭代来计算相应的模型输出值。旨在明确水文参数对不同回归期径流量截止和水质指标的影响和意义,进一步提高SWMM模拟真实降雨事件的预测精度。结果表明,土壤表层厚度(soil - t)和表层蓄水深度(surface - bh)对总产流最敏感。其中,土壤- t在0.5年和1年的回归期敏感性值超过1.0,表明其在产流中起主导作用,而地表- bh在0.5年的回归期敏感性值接近2.0,表明其对峰值流量的影响较强。对于这些高灵敏度参数,采用人工试错法进行参数细化。最优仿真精度(ENS >;当土壤- t和地表- bh分别在86-95 mm和18-22 mm范围内设置时,在6个代表性降雨事件中获得0.75)。该研究为SWMM模型的校准提供了一种确定最优参数组合的新方法,其高精度为城市排水系统的设计和优化提供了科学依据,特别是在应对极端降雨事件时,有助于城市的可持续性和弹性。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of urban morphology on land surface temperature: A case study of the central Tokyo, Japan 城市形态对地表温度的影响:以日本东京市中心为例
IF 3.9 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-07-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.cacint.2025.100227
Ruci Wang , Yuji Murayama , Fei Liu , Xinmin Zhang , Hao Hou , Takehiro Morimoto , Ahmed Derdouri
The spatial composition and three-dimensional (3D) configuration of buildings significantly influence land surface temperature (LST), playing a key role in urban heat island (UHI) mitigation and sustainable urban development. However, systematically quantifying these effects remains challenging due to the limitations in data resolution. This study addresses this gap by analyzing LST variations in six representative urban areas in central Tokyo, incorporating multi-source remote sensing data and detailed building information. We applied spatial analysis and a random forest regression model to assess the relative importance of building characteristics on LST across different urban morphologies. The results indicate that building height and volume are negatively correlated with LST, suggesting that taller buildings with larger volumes may contribute to lower surface temperatures primarily through increased shading. In central Tokyo, urban planning regulations require that taller buildings meet specific Floor Area Ratio (FAR) and setback standards, particularly along major roads. These regulations ensure greater spacing and access to sunlight, which can also facilitate localized airflow. As such, the observed cooling effect may result from a combination of shading and planning-induced ventilation conditions, contingent upon building arrangement and surrounding open space. In contrast, higher building density and greater building coverage lead to increased LST, particularly in compact, low-rise residential areas. Among all variables, building height, volume, and density emerged as the most influential factors affecting LST, highlighting the critical role of urban morphology in regulating thermal environments. These findings provide quantitative insights into how 3D urban structures impact LST, offering evidence-based guidance for optimizing urban planning strategies to mitigate UHI effects. The insights gained from central Tokyo can be extended to inform sustainable urban development in other high-density metropolitan areas worldwide.
建筑物的空间构成和三维构型对地表温度有显著影响,在城市热岛效应缓解和城市可持续发展中起着关键作用。然而,由于数据分辨率的限制,系统地量化这些影响仍然具有挑战性。本研究结合多源遥感数据和详细的建筑信息,分析了东京市中心六个代表性城区的地表温度变化,解决了这一差距。我们运用空间分析和随机森林回归模型来评估不同城市形态下建筑特征对地表温度的相对重要性。结果表明,建筑高度和体积与地表温度呈负相关,表明较高、较大体积的建筑可能主要通过增加遮阳来降低地表温度。在东京市中心,城市规划法规要求高层建筑满足特定的容积率(FAR)和挫折标准,特别是沿着主要道路。这些规定确保了更大的间距和获得阳光的机会,也可以促进局部气流。因此,观察到的冷却效果可能是由于遮阳和规划引起的通风条件的结合,取决于建筑布置和周围的开放空间。相反,更高的建筑密度和更大的建筑覆盖率会导致地表温度增加,特别是在紧凑的低层住宅区。在所有变量中,建筑高度、体积和密度是影响地表温度的最重要因素,突出了城市形态在调节热环境中的关键作用。这些发现为三维城市结构如何影响地表温度提供了定量见解,为优化城市规划策略以减轻城市热岛效应提供了循证指导。从东京市中心获得的见解可以扩展到全球其他高密度都市地区的可持续城市发展中。
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引用次数: 0
Extensive objectified footprints: A multidimensional approach to spatial inequalities 广泛客观化的足迹:空间不平等的多维方法
IF 3.9 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.cacint.2025.100226
Gomez Raimundo Elias , Maria Gabriela Miño
The article investigates the spatial footprints of anthropogenic emissions and infrastructures in Arcos de Valdevez, Portugal, and their association with the social composition of its parishes during the last years (2021–2023). Through the analysis of air quality, electric nightlight radiation, building age, and road networks, the research establishes connections between these physical footprints and the economic and social composition of the resident population. The study employs satellite imagery, open-access data, and the Portuguese Census of 2021 to conduct a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a Mixed Classification (MC), allowing for the spatial mapping of these relationships. By examining nightlight radiance intensity, road and building density, and pollutants such particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), Carbon Monoxide (CO), ozone (O3, tropospheric), and ammonia (NH3), the study highlights the unequal distribution of physical imprints of social and economic activities shaping the environment. The findings examine the transformed environment affecting quality of life, identifying distinct classes of areas characterised by specific configurations of air pollution, infrastructure development, nocturnal electric radiance, and the social composition of residents.
本文调查了葡萄牙阿尔科斯·德瓦尔德韦兹(Arcos de Valdevez)人为排放和基础设施的空间足迹,以及它们与过去几年(2021-2023)教区社会构成的关系。通过对空气质量、夜间电灯辐射、建筑年龄和道路网络的分析,研究建立了这些物理足迹与常住人口的经济和社会构成之间的联系。该研究利用卫星图像、开放获取数据和2021年葡萄牙人口普查数据进行主成分分析(PCA)和混合分类(MC),从而对这些关系进行空间映射。通过考察夜光辐射强度、道路和建筑密度,以及颗粒物(PM2.5和PM10)、二氧化氮(NO2)、二氧化硫(SO2)、一氧化碳(CO)、臭氧(O3,对流层)和氨(NH3)等污染物,该研究强调了社会和经济活动对环境形成的物理印记分布不均。研究结果考察了改变后的环境对生活质量的影响,根据空气污染、基础设施发展、夜间电辐射和居民社会构成的特定配置,确定了不同类别的地区。
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引用次数: 0
Scale, state and the city: Transformation of Diyarbakır, Suriçi region through the framework of spatial morphology and urban resilience 尺度、状态与城市:空间形态与城市弹性框架下Diyarbakır、surii地区的转型
IF 3.9 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.cacint.2025.100225
Berfin Eren, Mehmet Emin Şalgamcıoğlu
Diyarbakır, located in southeastern Turkey, is known for its rich history and unique urban layout. The Suriçi region, which functions as the historic heart of Diyarbakır, has undergone significant changes over the years. In particular, developments over the last century have begun to reshape Suriçi’s spatial identity, which has evolved through historical processes influenced by spatial experiences. As a result, two distinct morphologies have emerged in the city: formation and deterioration. The shift between these two morphologies has fostered urban resilience. This paper introduces comprehensive, multi-faceted methods for measuring resilience based on space syntax theory and investigates resilience concepts through the relationships between space and society across various scales and time periods. Examining resilience at the urban scale through the street networks of different historical periods, produced via space syntax analysis, facilitates the formulation and analysis of patterns in urban movement, interactions, and past socio-economic activities. At the building scale, space syntax analysis reveals the spatial patterns of the altered morphological characteristics of traditional houses. It evaluates how these modified layouts reflect social, cultural, and political realities, and how they differ from the originally designed houses in spatial terms. The analysis of the city shows that while the overall position of the central area remains relatively stable, its morphology undergoes transformations. Traditional houses have retained certain features from their original designs; however, they have experienced modifications, such as subdivisions into multiple houses and changes in spatial arrangement. The study’s innovative integration of diachronic spatial analysis with socio-political context enriches the field by providing a more comprehensive model for assessing and forecasting urban resilience in historically significant areas, potentially guiding more effective preservation and development strategies.
Diyarbakır位于土耳其东南部,以其丰富的历史和独特的城市布局而闻名。作为Diyarbakır历史中心的surii地区多年来经历了重大变化。特别是,上个世纪的发展已经开始重塑苏里佩蒂的空间特征,这是在受空间经验影响的历史进程中演变而来的。因此,城市中出现了两种不同的形态:形成和退化。这两种形态之间的转变促进了城市的弹性。本文介绍了基于空间句法理论的全方位、多方位的弹性测量方法,并通过空间与社会在不同尺度和时间段的关系来考察弹性概念。通过空间句法分析产生的不同历史时期的街道网络,在城市尺度上考察弹性,有助于制定和分析城市运动、相互作用和过去社会经济活动的模式。在建筑尺度上,空间句法分析揭示了传统民居形态特征改变后的空间格局。它评估了这些修改后的布局如何反映社会、文化和政治现实,以及它们在空间方面与最初设计的房屋有何不同。对城市的分析表明,虽然中心区域的整体位置保持相对稳定,但其形态发生了变化。传统房屋保留了其原始设计的某些特征;然而,它们经历了修改,例如细分为多个房屋和空间安排的变化。该研究创新性地将历时空间分析与社会政治背景相结合,为历史上重要地区的城市弹性评估和预测提供了更全面的模型,从而丰富了该领域,并有可能指导更有效的保护和发展战略。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring housing price dynamics in sustainable cities through a cooperated big data driven machine learning method: case study on a typical city in China 通过协同大数据驱动的机器学习方法探索可持续城市的房价动态:以中国典型城市为例
IF 3.9 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cacint.2025.100223
Feng Han , Meiqu Lu , Donghong Qin , Guitao Zheng , Guihong Zeng , Yan Tan , Zhongyang Wu , Haijian Lu , Jun Wang , Yirong Deng , Hui He
Interpreting the drivers of housing price dynamics is essential for promoting sustainable urban development, particularly in rapidly urbanizing cities in China. We adopted a data-driven approach by integrating Random Forest (RF) with SHAP (SHapley Additive Explanations) to enhance model interpretability and uncover non-linear relationships. A comprehensive dataset of 2,508 residential communities in South China was compiled using web-crawled property attributes and GIS-derived geospatial indicators. The RF model achieved a robust performance, with an average training R2 of 0.965 and testing R2 of 0.742. SHAP values were used to quantify the marginal contribution of each feature to housing price predictions, revealing that location-based factors and environmental attributes were the most influential. The model also identified price volatility in regions with high standard deviations, offering a new dimension for spatial housing risk assessment. The findings offer practical implications for policymakers aiming to stabilize housing markets, improve affordability, and guide data-informed infrastructure investments. The study also demonstrates the utility of explainable AI techniques in advancing sustainable urban development research.
解读房价动态的驱动因素对于促进城市可持续发展至关重要,尤其是在中国快速城市化的城市。我们采用数据驱动的方法,将随机森林(RF)与SHAP (SHapley加性解释)相结合,以增强模型的可解释性并揭示非线性关系。利用网络抓取属性和gis衍生的地理空间指标,编制了华南2508个住宅小区的综合数据集。该模型具有较好的鲁棒性,平均训练R2为0.965,检验R2为0.742。SHAP值用于量化每个特征对房价预测的边际贡献,揭示基于位置的因素和环境属性的影响最大。该模型还确定了高标准差地区的价格波动,为空间住房风险评估提供了一个新的维度。研究结果为旨在稳定住房市场、提高可负担性和指导数据知情基础设施投资的政策制定者提供了实际意义。该研究还展示了可解释的人工智能技术在推进可持续城市发展研究中的效用。
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City and Environment Interactions
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