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Short-term traffic forecasting model – prevailing trends and guidelines 短期交通预测模型-主要趋势及指引
IF 2.2 4区 工程技术 Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-12-21 DOI: 10.1093/tse/tdac058
Kian Lun Soon, Robin Kuok Cheong Chan, J. Lim, R. Parthiban
The design parameters serve as an integral part of developing a robust short-term traffic forecasting model. These parameters include scope determination, input data preparation, output parameters, and modelling techniques. This paper takes a further leap to analyse the recent trend of design parameters through a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) based on peer-reviewed articles up to 2021. The key important findings are summarised along with the challenges to performing short-term traffic forecasting. Intuitively, this paper offers insights into the next wave of research that contributes significantly to industries.
设计参数是开发稳健的短期交通预测模型的组成部分。这些参数包括范围确定、输入数据准备、输出参数和建模技术。本文通过基于截至2021年同行评审文章的系统文献综述(SLR),进一步分析了设计参数的最新趋势。总结了关键的重要发现以及执行短期交通预测的挑战。直观地说,这篇论文为下一波对行业有重大贡献的研究提供了见解。
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引用次数: 0
Railway switch fault diagnosis based on Multi heads Channel Self Attention, Residual Connection and Deep CNN 基于多头通道自关注、残差连接和深度CNN的铁路道岔故障诊断
IF 2.2 4区 工程技术 Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-12-21 DOI: 10.1093/tse/tdac045
Xirui Chen, Hui Liu, Zhu Duan
A novel switch diagnosis method based on self-attention and residual deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) is proposed. Because of the imbalanced dataset, the Kmeans synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) is applied to balancing the dataset at first. Then, the deep CNN is utilized to extract local features from long power curves, and the residual connection is performed to handle the performance degeneration. In the end, the Multi-heads Channel Self Attention focuses on those important local features. The ablation and comparison experiments are applied to verifying the effectiveness of the proposed methods. With the residual connection and Multi-heads Channel Self Attention, the proposed method has achieved an accuracy of 99.83% impressively. The t-SNE based visualizations for features of the middle layers enhance the trustworthiness.
提出了一种基于自注意和残差深度卷积神经网络(CNN)的开关诊断新方法。由于数据集不平衡,首先采用Kmeans合成少数过采样技术(SMOTE)对数据集进行平衡。然后,利用深度CNN从长功率曲线中提取局部特征,并进行残差连接来处理性能退化。最后,多头通道的自我关注集中在那些重要的局部特征上。通过烧蚀实验和对比实验验证了所提方法的有效性。在残差连接和多头通道自注意的情况下,该方法的准确率达到了99.83%。基于t-SNE的中间层特征可视化增强了可信度。
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引用次数: 0
Left turn across path and opposite direction accidents in China: CIDAS accident study 中国的左转弯和反方向事故:CIDAS事故研究
IF 2.2 4区 工程技术 Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-12-21 DOI: 10.1093/tse/tdac070
Y. Chen, Christian Buerger, Miao Lin, Xudong Li, Volker Labenski, Haixia Jin, Hai Wang, Yang Liu, Tsuyoshi Ino, Harald Feifel, Tian Tan, Fangrong Chang
Left Turn Across Path with Opposite Direction (LTAP/OD) conflicts are one of the most common crash types at intersections. The research aims to reveal the general and dynamic information about the conflict for the most relevant street layouts for each conflict configuration of the LTAP/OD accidents involving passenger cars, motorcycles and Ebikes. The analysis was based on 276 LTAP/OD accidents collected by China In-Depth Accident Study (CIDAS 2011–2019). The LTAP/OD accidents include 44 car-to-car conflicts, 157 car-to-motorcycle conflicts and 75 car-to-Ebike conflicts. Most of accidents belonging to three types were observed at the W0 street layout without green belt separating the oncoming lane and no offset lane between the turning car and the oncoming traffic, the main distance between both vehicles in the beginning of the critical situation being about four meters, occurring in the clear day with no rain and at junctions lighted either because of daylight or based on street lighting. In terms of the turning car initial speed, the range is between 15-30 km/h for most car-to-car and car-to-motorcycle accidents but 30-40 km/h for most car-to-Ebike accidents. As for the collision speed, this range is between 10 and 20 km/h for car-to-car and car-to-Ebike accidents and between 10 and 25 km/h for car-to-motorcycle crashes. Based on the distributions of objective motorcycles’ and Ebike's positions in collisions with passenger cars, the maximum longitudinal distance is 60 m for both two types of accidents and the maximum lateral distance ranges from -20 m to 20 m and from -15 m to 15 m, respectively.
反向左转(LTAP/OD)冲突是十字路口最常见的碰撞类型之一。本研究旨在揭示涉及客车、摩托车和电动自行车的LTAP/OD事故的每个冲突配置的最相关街道布局的冲突的一般和动态信息。该分析基于中国深度事故研究(CIDAS 2011-2019)收集的276起LTAP/OD事故。LTAP/OD事故包括44起车与车冲突、157起车与摩托车冲突和75起车与电动自行车冲突。属于三种类型的事故大多发生在W0街道布局上,没有将迎面而来的车道分隔开的绿化带,转弯车辆和迎面而来车辆之间也没有偏移车道,在危急情况开始时,两辆车之间的主要距离约为4米,发生在晴朗无雨的日子里,在因日光或基于街道照明而照明的路口。就转弯汽车的初始速度而言,大多数汽车对汽车和汽车对摩托车事故的速度范围在15-30公里/小时之间,但大多数汽车对电动自行车事故的速度为30-40公里/小时。至于碰撞速度,对于汽车对汽车和汽车对电动自行车的事故,这个范围在10到20公里/小时之间,对于汽车和摩托车的碰撞,这个范围是10到25公里/小时。根据目标摩托车和电动自行车在与客车碰撞中的位置分布,两种事故的最大纵向距离均为60米,最大横向距离分别为-20米至20米和-15米至15米。
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引用次数: 1
Road traffic anomaly monitoring and warning based on DeepWalk algorithm 基于DeepWalk算法的道路交通异常监测与预警
IF 2.2 4区 工程技术 Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-12-21 DOI: 10.1093/tse/tdac049
Zihe Wang, Junqing Ye, Jinjun Tang
In the complex urban road traffic network, a sudden accident leads to rapid congestion in the nearby traffic region, which even makes the local traffic network capacity quickly reduced. Therefore, an efficient monitoring system for abnormal conditions of urban road network plays a crucial role in the tolerance of urban road network. The traditional traffic monitoring system not only costs a lot in construction and maintenance, but also may not cover the road network comprehensively, which could not meet the basic needs of traffic management. Only a more comprehensive and intelligent monitoring method is able to identify traffic anomalies more effectively and quickly so that it provide more effective support for traffic management decisions. The extensive use of positioning equipment makes us to obtain accurate trajectory data. This paper presents a traffic anomaly monitoring and prediction method based on vehicle trajectory data. This model uses deep learning to detect abnormal trajectory on the traffic road network. The method effectively analyzes the abnormal source and potential anomaly to judge the abnormal region, which provides an important reference for the traffic department to take effective traffic control measures. Finally, the paper uses Internet vehicle trajectory data of Chengdu to test and gets an accurate result.
在复杂的城市道路交通网络中,突发事故导致附近交通区域快速拥堵,甚至使当地交通网络容量迅速降低。因此,一个高效的城市路网异常监测系统对城市路网的容错性起着至关重要的作用。传统的交通监控系统不仅建设和维护成本高,而且可能无法全面覆盖路网,无法满足交通管理的基本需求。只有更全面、更智能的监测方法才能更有效、更快地识别交通异常,从而为交通管理决策提供更有效的支持。定位设备的广泛使用使我们能够获得准确的轨迹数据。本文提出了一种基于车辆轨迹数据的交通异常监测与预测方法。该模型使用深度学习来检测交通道路网络上的异常轨迹。该方法有效分析异常源和潜在异常,判断异常区域,为交通部门采取有效的交通管制措施提供了重要参考。最后,本文利用成都市的互联网车辆轨迹数据进行了测试,得到了准确的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Flexible Optimal Model and Algorithm for Track Utilization in High-speed Railway Stations 高速铁路车站轨道利用柔性优化模型与算法
IF 2.2 4区 工程技术 Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-12-21 DOI: 10.1093/tse/tdac057
Quan Gao, Yinggui Zhang, Zhiya Chen, Yuan Chen
Track utilization is the most important technical operation in high-speed railway stations. It's an effective way to take flexible management based on dispatchers’ decision preferences into consideration for making track utilization plans to relieve the influence caused by unmeasurable unstructured factors. Thus, based on flexible management concept and taken the flexible optimal for track utilization in high-speed railway stations as the object, time and space occupation safety trajectories of arrival routes, departure routes and tracks are all analyzed. Then, taking following constraints into consideration, i.e. minimum safety time intervals for various routes and tracks occupation, space-time arc occupation and decision-makers’ preferences, a flexible optimal model for track utilization in high-speed railway stations are established to maximize its balance and robustness and to minimize its volatility at the same time. Further, a flexible optimal solution based on a simulated annealing algorithm is designed to make a safety track utilization plan in high-speed railway stations integrating the dispatchers’ decision preference. The results gained from given experiments show that the proposed methodology can effectively make satisfied safety track utilization plans based on decision-makers’ preferences, which can improve its balance and robustness level significantly. Meanwhile, its volatility can be reduced as much as possible caused by flexible management based on artificial intervention to ensure the relative stability of the plan.
轨道利用是高铁车站最重要的技术操作。在制定轨道利用计划时,考虑调度员决策偏好的柔性管理,是缓解不可测量的非结构化因素影响的有效途径。因此,基于柔性管理理念,以高铁车站轨道利用柔性优化为目标,分析了到达路线、出发路线和轨道的时间和空间占用安全轨迹。然后,在考虑各路线、轨道占用的最小安全时间间隔、时空弧占用和决策者偏好等约束条件下,建立了高速铁路车站轨道利用的柔性优化模型,使其平衡性和鲁棒性最大化,同时使其波动性最小化。在此基础上,设计了一种基于模拟退火算法的柔性最优解,综合调度人员的决策偏好制定高铁车站安全轨道利用计划。实验结果表明,该方法能有效地根据决策者的偏好制定出满意的安全轨道利用方案,显著提高了其平衡性和鲁棒性水平。同时,通过人为干预的灵活管理,尽可能降低其波动性,保证计划的相对稳定性。
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引用次数: 0
Hazard-based Duration Modeling of Merging Time Interval on Freeway On-Ramps 基于危险性的高速公路匝道合并时间间隔持续时间建模
IF 2.2 4区 工程技术 Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-12-21 DOI: 10.1093/tse/tdac040
Ye Li, Jichen Zhu, M. Haque, Jaeyoung Lee
Freeway on-ramps suffer high crash risks due to frequent merging behaviors. This study developed hazard-based duration models to investigate the merging time interval on freeway on-ramps based on microscopic trajectory data. Fixed effect, random effect, and random parameters Weibull distributed accelerated failure time models were developed to capture merging time as a function of various dynamic variables. The random parameters model was found to outperform the two counterparts since the unobserved heterogeneity of individual drivers were captured. Modeling estimation results indicate that drivers along the merging section with an auxiliary lane perform a smooth merging process and are easily affected by speed variables. Dynamics of leading and following vehicles on the merging and target lanes are found to influence the merging time interval for merging without an auxiliary lane, whereas the influence of surrounding vehicles is marginal for those with an auxiliary lane. The findings of this study identify potential countermeasures for improving safety during the merging process.
由于频繁的并线行为,高速公路入口匝道面临着较高的碰撞风险。本研究开发了基于危害的持续时间模型,以基于微观轨迹数据研究高速公路匝道上的合流时间间隔。建立了固定效应、随机效应和随机参数威布尔分布加速失效时间模型,以捕捉合并时间作为各种动态变量的函数。随机参数模型被发现优于两个对应模型,因为捕捉到了未观察到的个体驾驶员的异质性。模型估计结果表明,具有辅助车道的并线路段的驾驶员执行平稳的并线过程,并且容易受到速度变量的影响。研究发现,在没有辅助车道的情况下,并线和目标车道上的前车和后车的动力学会影响并线的时间间隔,而对于有辅助车道的车辆,周围车辆的影响是微不足道的。这项研究的结果确定了在合并过程中提高安全性的潜在对策。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling medium and long term purchasing plans for environment-oriented container truck: a case study of yangtze river port 面向环境的集装箱卡车中长期采购计划建模——以长江港口为例
IF 2.2 4区 工程技术 Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-12-21 DOI: 10.1093/tse/tdac043
Shuai Li, Weijia Wu, Xiaofeng Ma, Ming Zhong, M. Safdar
Transportation sector is the most significant contributor to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Particularly, maritime transportation, which is predominantly powered by fossil-fuel engines, accounts for more than 90% of world freight movement and emits 3% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. China is the world's largest emitter of CO2 and plays a key role in mitigating global climate change. In order to tackle this pressing concern, this study analyzes the port's throughput, the current number of trucks, and their emissions during the container truck purchasing process. While the previous studies about container truck purchasing plans mostly focused on the trucks' price and port needs. The objective of this study is to minimize the total cost of a port's inland transportation using optimization technique such as the interval uncertainty planning model to convert container truck emissions into social costs. This study considers the port of Yangtze as a case study. This study has designed two scenarios. (i) The base scenario (business-as-usual (BAU)) is used to quantify the relationship between pollutant emissions and system cost. In the base scenario, no environmental control facilities are used during the planning period, and there is no need to purchase new energy container trucks (ii) Expected scenario, referred to as (scenario A), for three planning periods. In scenario A, the emissions levels are required to remain at the same level as the first planning period during the whole planning period. By solving the above model, the number of all truck types, system cost, container throughput, and truck emissions in the port area were analyzed. The results showed that if no emission reduction control measures are implemented in the next 9 years, the growth rate of pollutants in the port area can be exceeded up to 20%. In addition, The findings showed clearly that truck emissions are reduced by purchasing new energy trucks and restricting the number of fossil-fuel (diesel) trucks. This study could also help to minimize system costs associated with port planning and management.
运输部门是造成人为温室气体排放的最重要因素。特别是,主要由化石燃料发动机提供动力的海上运输占世界货运量的90%以上,排放量占全球二氧化碳排放量的3%。中国是世界上最大的二氧化碳排放国,在缓解全球气候变化方面发挥着关键作用。为了解决这一紧迫问题,本研究分析了港口的吞吐量、当前卡车数量及其在集装箱卡车采购过程中的排放量。而以往关于集装箱卡车采购计划的研究大多集中在卡车的价格和港口需求上。本研究的目的是使用优化技术(如区间不确定性规划模型)将集装箱卡车排放转化为社会成本,最大限度地降低港口内陆运输的总成本。本研究以长江港为个案。本研究设计了两个场景。(i) 基本情景(照常营业(BAU))用于量化污染物排放和系统成本之间的关系。在基本情景中,规划期内不使用环境控制设施,也不需要购买新能源集装箱卡车(ii)三个规划期的预期情景,即(情景A)。在情景A中,要求在整个规划期内,排放水平保持在与第一个规划期相同的水平。通过求解上述模型,分析了港区内所有卡车类型的数量、系统成本、集装箱吞吐量和卡车排放量。结果表明,如果在未来9年内不实施减排控制措施,港区污染物的增长率可能超过20%。此外,研究结果清楚地表明,通过购买新能源卡车和限制化石燃料(柴油)卡车的数量,可以减少卡车的排放。这项研究也有助于最大限度地减少与港口规划和管理相关的系统成本。
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引用次数: 4
Regularity and sensitivity analysis of main parameters of plate effects on the aerodynamic braking drag of a high-speed train 高速列车空气动力学制动阻力板效应主要参数的规律性及灵敏度分析
IF 2.2 4区 工程技术 Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-12-21 DOI: 10.1093/tse/tdac051
Peng Li, Shan Huang, Y. Liu, J. Niu
With increase of train speed, braking plate technology has a good application prospect in the high-speed stage of the train. Based on the 1/8th scaled symmetrical train model composed by two half cars, Reynolds Average Navier-stokes (RANS) equations and Shear Stress Transfer (SST) k-ω turbulence model are adopted to simulate the aerodynamic performance of the train with plate, aerodynamic drag dependence of the single parameter of the plate (shape, area, angle, position and number) is analyzed, and the identification research of the main aerodynamic parameters of plate is also carried out. The numerical settings used in this paper is verified by wind tunnel test data. Results show that the braking plate with aspect ratio of 1 has better performance on aerodynamic drag. The area, opening angle and number of plates are basically positively correlated with the total aerodynamic drag of the target car and plate. Arranging plates at the downstream of the vehicle is a good method of raising total aerodynamic drag. Within the range of plate parameter design in this paper, by using orthogonal design of experiment and method of range analysis and analysis of variance, the influence degrees of plate parameters on aerodynamic drag are determined, and the order is number, area and opening angle of plate. The research results provide theoretical support for the design and safe operation of high-speed train with aerodynamic braking plate.
随着列车速度的提高,制动片技术在列车高速段有着良好的应用前景。基于由两节半车厢组成的1/8比例对称列车模型,采用雷诺平均Navier-stokes(RANS)方程和剪切应力传递(SST)k-ω湍流模型模拟了带板列车的气动性能,分析了板的单个参数(形状、面积、角度、位置和数量)的气动阻力依赖性,并对板的主要气动参数进行了识别研究。本文中使用的数值设置通过风洞试验数据进行了验证。结果表明,纵横比为1的制动片具有较好的气动阻力性能。板的面积、开角和数量与目标车和板的总气动阻力基本呈正相关。将板布置在车辆的下游是提高总空气动力学阻力的好方法。在本文的板参数设计范围内,采用正交试验设计和极差分析方差分析方法,确定了板参数对气动阻力的影响程度,其顺序为板的数量、面积和开度。研究结果为采用气动制动板的高速列车的设计和安全运行提供了理论支持。
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引用次数: 1
Parameterization of the Propeller Thrust for Modelling Ship Braking within Ice Channel behind Icebreaker 破冰船后冰道内船舶制动模型的螺旋桨推力参数化
IF 2.2 4区 工程技术 Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-12-21 DOI: 10.1093/tse/tdac042
V. Goncharov, N. Klementieva
Cargo ship sailing within the ice channel that assisting icebreaker tracks in the compact ice cover is the usual practice of the navigation for the difficult ice conditions in the freezing seas and in the Arctic water areas. When the icebreaker or an ahead vessel stops before the insuperable ice obstacle or because the engine trouble, the danger of an emergency appears, namely, the collision with the icebreaker or the ahead ship, if the interval between them is not sufficient for the effective braking and stop. The paper presents the equation that describes the ship braking process within an ice channel and includes the thrust of the propeller that works under the reverse regime. The specific of this regime is following: the ship continues the motion “forward» and the propeller rotates “backward”. Analytical method for description of the ship propeller work on the reverse regime is absent because the detached flow on its blades. The paper describes the developed empirical method of this regime parameterization on the base of the serial models of propellers testing. The outcomes of this investigation will be applied for the ship braking process simulation and the safe interval between the ship and the icebreaker evaluation in what follows.
货船在冰槽内航行,协助破冰船在密实的冰盖上行驶,这是在冰冻海域和北极水域艰难的冰况下航行的通常做法。当破冰船或前方船舶在不可逾越的冰障前停车或由于发动机故障,如果破冰船或前方船舶与破冰船或前方船舶之间的距离不足以有效制动和停车,则出现与破冰船或前方船舶碰撞的紧急危险。本文提出了描述船舶在冰槽内制动过程的方程,其中包括在反向状态下工作的螺旋桨推力。这种状态的具体情况如下:船舶继续“前进”运动,螺旋桨“向后”旋转。由于桨叶上存在分离流,目前尚无描述船舶螺旋桨反向工况的解析方法。本文介绍了在螺旋桨试验系列模型的基础上发展起来的状态参数化的经验方法。该研究结果将应用于船舶制动过程模拟和船舶与破冰船之间的安全间隔评估。
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引用次数: 0
Performance of Vehicle-mounted Anemometer under Crosswind—Simulation and Experiment 侧风作用下车载风速计的性能——仿真与实验
IF 2.2 4区 工程技术 Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-12-21 DOI: 10.1093/tse/tdac053
Bo Sun, Guang Chen, Jun Chen, Xiao-bai Li, Ming-zan Tang, Mu Zhong
Environmental wind measurements are essential for ensuring the operational safety of rail vehicles. In our previous work, an anemometer that can be mounted on the top of a train to achieve real-time measurements of wind speed and direction was proposed based on the pressure distributions around the cylindrical anemometer. However, the flow field on the top of the train is significantly influenced by the train; thus, the measured data might differ from the actual environmental wind parameters, particularly when trains are subjected to windbreak walls. In this study, simulations considering flow fields around trains installed with the proposed anemometer were conducted, and an improved delayed detached eddy simulation approach was adopted. Through simulations, the flow field at the top of the train was analysed, and the aerodynamic characteristics of the anemometer were investigated. Accordingly, relationships between the measured wind characteristics and environmental wind characteristics are presented under various situations herein. Field experiments were performed for the proposed anemometer installed on a certain type of high-speed train along the Nanjiang Railway in China. The results obtained from both the numerical and experimental studies show that the proposed method has high accuracy for measuring environmental wind speed and direction when mounted on the top of a train.
环境风测量是保证轨道车辆运行安全的重要手段。在我们之前的工作中,我们提出了一种可以安装在火车顶部的风速仪,基于圆柱形风速仪周围的压力分布,实现风速和风向的实时测量。而列车顶部的流场受列车的影响较大;因此,测量数据可能与实际环境风参数不同,特别是当列车受到防风墙时。本文采用改进的延迟分离涡流模拟方法,对安装了风速仪的列车进行了流场模拟。通过仿真分析了列车顶部的流场,研究了风速仪的气动特性。因此,本文给出了各种情况下实测风特征与环境风特征之间的关系。将该风速计安装在南江铁路某型高速列车上进行了现场试验。数值和实验结果表明,该方法对安装在列车顶部的环境风速和风向具有较高的测量精度。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Transportation Safety and Environment
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