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The System for Extracting Crime Elements and Predicting Excavation-Type Heritage Crimes Based on Deep Learning Models 基于深度学习模型的挖掘型文物犯罪犯罪要素提取与预测系统
Pub Date : 2023-06-05 DOI: 10.3390/systems11060289
Hongyu Lv, Ning Ding, Yiming Zhai, Yingjie Du, Fengxi Xie
Heritage crimes can result in the significant loss of cultural relics and predicting them is crucial. To address the issues of inconsistent textual information format and the challenge of preventing and combating heritage crimes, this paper develops a system that extracts crime elements and predict heritage crime occurrences. The system comprises two deep-learning models. The first model, Bi-LSTM + CRF, is constructed to automatically extract crime elements and perform spatio-temporal analysis of crimes based on them. By integrating routine activity theory, social disorder theory, and practical field experience, the research reveals that holidays and other special days (SD) perform a critical role as influential factors in heritage crimes. Building upon these findings, the second model, LSTM + SD, is constructed to predict excavation-type heritage crimes. The results demonstrate that the model with the introduction of the holiday factor improves the RMSE and MAE by 6.4% and 47.8%, respectively, when compared to the original LSTM model. This paper presents research aimed at extracting crime elements and predicting excavation-type heritage crimes. With the ongoing expansion of data volume, the practical significance of the proposed system is poised to escalate. The results of this study are expected to provide decision-making support for heritage protection departments and public security authorities in preventing and combating crimes.
遗产犯罪可能导致文物的重大损失,预测它们是至关重要的。为解决文本信息格式不一致的问题和预防和打击遗产犯罪的挑战,本文开发了一个提取犯罪要素并预测遗产犯罪发生的系统。该系统包括两个深度学习模型。首先构建Bi-LSTM + CRF模型,自动提取犯罪要素,并基于犯罪要素对犯罪进行时空分析。结合日常活动理论、社会失序理论和实地实践经验,研究发现节假日和其他特殊日子是遗产犯罪的重要影响因素。在这些发现的基础上,第二个模型LSTM + SD被构建来预测挖掘型遗产犯罪。结果表明,引入假日因子的模型相对于原始LSTM模型,RMSE和MAE分别提高了6.4%和47.8%。本文对挖掘型文物犯罪的犯罪要素提取和预测进行了研究。随着数据量的不断扩大,所提出的系统的实际意义将不断升级。这项研究的结果有望为文物保护部门和公安机关预防和打击犯罪提供决策支持。
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引用次数: 0
Data-Driven Futuristic Scenarios: Smart Home Service Experience Foresight Based on Social Media Data 数据驱动的未来场景:基于社交媒体数据的智能家居服务体验预测
Pub Date : 2023-06-03 DOI: 10.3390/systems11060287
Zhiyong Fu, Anna Barbara, P. Scupelli, Yanru Lyu, Y. Cheng, S. Sul
Exploring future scenarios can consider future generations and society from a long-term perspective. A Futures Triangle is an approach used for mapping future scenarios. In general, the Futures Triangle collects weak signals using qualitative research methods. However, collecting weak signals qualitatively is limited by its small data size and manual data analysis errors. To overcome those limitations, this study proposes the data-driven futuristic scenario approach. This approach analyzes a large number of social perceptions existing in social networks as weak signals via semantic network analysis. Using our proposed data-driven approach, researchers can quantitatively collect weak signals for a Futures Triangle. To verify the applicability of the proposed method, we conducted a case study on the Chinese smart home service experience. The dataset consists of 2421 posts containing the keyword “smart home experience” on the Chinese social media platform Weibo. Three future scenarios were constructed using the proposed method. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. The data-driven futuristic scenario approach has the advantage of quantitatively analyzing a large amount of stakeholder data to provide weak signals for the Futures Triangle. We suggest that the data-driven futuristic scenario approach serves as a supplementary method, combined with the traditional Futures Triangle approach, to comprehensively explore future scenarios.
探索未来情景可以从长远的角度考虑子孙后代和社会。期货三角是一种用于描绘未来情景的方法。一般来说,期货三角利用定性研究方法收集弱信号。然而,定性采集微弱信号受到数据量小和人工数据分析误差的限制。为了克服这些限制,本研究提出了数据驱动的未来情景方法。该方法通过语义网络分析,将社交网络中存在的大量社会感知作为弱信号进行分析。使用我们提出的数据驱动方法,研究人员可以定量地收集期货三角的微弱信号。为了验证所提出方法的适用性,我们对中国智能家居服务体验进行了案例研究。该数据集由中国社交媒体平台微博上2421条包含“智能家居体验”关键词的帖子组成。利用所提出的方法构建了三种未来情景。结果表明了所提方法的可行性。数据驱动的未来情景方法具有定量分析大量利益相关者数据的优势,为期货三角提供微弱信号。我们建议将数据驱动的未来情景方法作为补充方法,与传统的期货三角方法相结合,全面探索未来情景。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting per Capita Energy Consumption in China Using a Spatial Discrete Grey Prediction Model 基于空间离散灰色预测模型的中国人均能源消费预测
Pub Date : 2023-06-02 DOI: 10.3390/systems11060285
Huiping Wang, Zhun Zhang
To overcome the limitations of the present grey models in spatial data analysis, a spatial weight matrix is incorporated into the grey discrete model to create the SDGM(1,1,m) model, and the L1-SDGM(1,1,m) model is proposed, considering the time lag effect to realize the simultaneous forecasting of spatial data. The validation of the SDGM(1,1,m) and L1-SDGM(1,1,m) models is achieved, and finally, the per capita energy consumption levels (PCECs) of 30 provinces in China from 2020 to 2025 is predicted using SDGM(1,1,m) with a metabolic mechanism. We draw the following conclusions. First, the SDGM(1,1,m) and L1-SDGM(1,1,m) models established in this paper are reasonable and improve forecasting accuracy while supporting interactive regional forecasting. Second, although SDGM(1,1,m) resembles the DGM(1,n) model, their modeling conditions and targets are different. Third, the SDGM(1,1,m) and L1-SDGM(1,1,m) models can be used to effectively analyze the spatial spillover effects within the selected modeling interval while achieving accurate predictions; notably, from 2010 to 2017, the PCECs of Inner Mongolia and Qinghai were most affected by spatial factors, while the PCECs of Jilin, Jiangxi, and other provinces were influenced little by spatial factors. Fourth, predictions indicate that the PCECs of most Chinese provinces will increase under the current grey conditions, while the PCECs of provinces such as Beijing are expected to decrease.
为克服现有灰色模型在空间数据分析中的局限性,在灰色离散模型中引入空间权重矩阵,建立SDGM(1,1,m)模型,并提出考虑时滞效应的L1-SDGM(1,1,m)模型,实现空间数据的同步预测。实现了SDGM(1,1,m)和L1-SDGM(1,1,m)模型的验证,最后利用SDGM(1,1,m)代谢机制预测了2020 - 2025年中国30个省份的人均能源消费水平(PCECs)。我们得出以下结论。首先,本文建立的SDGM(1,1,m)和L1-SDGM(1,1,m)模型合理,在支持交互式区域预测的同时提高了预测精度。其次,虽然SDGM(1,1,m)与DGM(1,n)模型相似,但它们的建模条件和目标不同。第三,SDGM(1,1,m)和L1-SDGM(1,1,m)模型可以有效分析所选建模区间内的空间溢出效应,并获得准确的预测;值得注意的是,2010 - 2017年,内蒙古和青海受空间因子的影响最大,而吉林、江西和其他省份受空间因子的影响较小。第四,预测表明,在目前的灰色条件下,中国大多数省份的pcpcs将增加,而北京等省份的pcpcs预计将减少。
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引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal Hybrid Air Pollution Early Warning System of Urban Agglomeration Based on Adaptive Feature Extraction and Hesitant Fuzzy Cognitive Maps 基于自适应特征提取和犹豫模糊认知地图的城市群大气污染时空混合预警系统
Pub Date : 2023-06-02 DOI: 10.3390/systems11060286
Xiaoyang Gu, Hongmin Li, Henghao Fan
Long-term exposure to air pollution will pose a serious threat to human health. Accurate prediction can help people reduce exposure risks and promote environmental pollution control. However, most previous studies have ignored the spatial spillover of air pollution, i.e., that the current region’s air quality is also correlated with that of geographically adjacent areas. Therefore, this paper proposes an innovative spatiotemporal hybrid early warning system based on adaptive feature extraction and improved fuzzy cognition maps. Firstly, a spatial spillover analysis model based on the Moran index and local gravitational clustering was proposed to capture the diffusion and concentration characteristics of air pollution between regions. Then, an adaptive feature extraction model based on an optimized Hampel filter was put forward to process and correct the outliers in the original series. Finally, a hesitant fuzzy information optimized fuzzy cognitive maps model was proposed to forecast the air quality of urban agglomeration. The experimental results show that the air quality forecasting accuracy of urban agglomerations can be significantly improved when the geographical conditions and other interactions among cities are comprehensively considered, and the proposed model outperformed other benchmarks and can be used as a powerful analytical tool during urban agglomeration air quality management.
长期暴露在空气污染中会对人体健康造成严重威胁。准确的预测可以帮助人们降低暴露风险,促进环境污染控制。然而,以往的研究大多忽略了空气污染的空间外溢性,即当前区域的空气质量也与地理相邻区域的空气质量相关。为此,本文提出了一种基于自适应特征提取和改进模糊认知图的创新时空混合预警系统。首先,提出了基于Moran指数和局部引力聚类的空间溢出分析模型,以捕捉区域间空气污染的扩散和浓度特征。然后,提出了一种基于优化Hampel滤波器的自适应特征提取模型,对原始序列中的异常值进行处理和校正。最后,提出了一个犹豫模糊信息优化模糊认知地图模型来预测城市群的空气质量。实验结果表明,综合考虑城市间的地理条件和其他相互作用,可以显著提高城市群空气质量预测的准确性,并且该模型优于其他基准,可以作为城市群空气质量管理的有力分析工具。
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引用次数: 0
A Two-Stage Investment Decision-Making Model for Urban Rail Transit Drainage Renovation 城市轨道交通排水改造的两阶段投资决策模型
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.3390/systems11060280
Tao Wang, Bingsheng Liu, Shimeng Liu, Kuan Zhang, Mingyue Ma
Climate change is the main cause of frequent extreme weather and natural disasters. Therefore, effective climate adaptation strategies for urban rail transit (URT) should be adopted to cope with extreme precipitation events (EPEs). This study proposes a decision-making model based on climate change for drainage renovation, which consists of an optimal renovation sequence model and an optimal investment timing model. This study analyzes the inundation risk of each station and its node importance in the URT network and then uses a multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) to determine the optimal renovation sequence. This study also uses a real options pricing approach to calculate the value of an option in order to defer the renovation project and determine the optimal investment timing. Then, the Beijing Urban Rail Transit (BURT) is taken as an example to conduct an empirical analysis of the proposed model. Considering the uncertainty of climate change and the complexity of the URT network, the model can obtain the optimal renovation sequence and the investment timing of each station, which is expected to provide a decision-making tool for urban governments to formulate an optimal plan that strengthens the prevention of flooding disasters.
气候变化是极端天气和自然灾害频发的主要原因。因此,城市轨道交通应对极端降水事件应采取有效的气候适应策略。本文提出了一个基于气候变化的排水改造决策模型,该模型由最优改造序列模型和最优投资时机模型组成。本文分析了城市轨道交通网络中各站点的淹没风险及其节点重要性,并利用多属性决策分析(MADA)确定了最优改造序列。本研究亦采用实物期权定价方法计算期权价值,以延后改造项目,确定最优投资时机。然后,以北京城市轨道交通(BURT)为例,对该模型进行实证分析。考虑到气候变化的不确定性和城市轨道交通网络的复杂性,该模型可以得到各车站的最优改造顺序和投资时机,为城市政府制定加强洪涝灾害预防的最优规划提供决策工具。
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引用次数: 0
Supply Chain Finance Business Model Innovation: Case Study on a Chinese E-Commerce-Centered SCF Adopter 供应链金融商业模式创新:以中国电子商务为中心的供应链金融采用者的案例研究
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.3390/systems11060278
Lele Zhou, Hyangsook Lee
SCF (Supply Chain Finance), as an emerging technology-driven financial optimization approach, has grown quickly worldwide with the development of information technology. China is one noteworthy country influenced by SCF development; its traditional financial market structure dominated by banks is undergoing change. The E-commerce-centered SCF has evolved into the representative capital provider in the new financial “Blue Ocean” market. For capturing competitiveness, Chinese JD (Jingdong) SCF practice backed to JD E-commerce is a typical example involving business model innovations, but with few previous related studies on this aspect. Therefore, to fill the research gap, this paper introduces a hybrid theoretical analysis of the BMC (Business Model Canvas) considering a three-layer strategic innovation structure and financial analysis regarding a modified competitive advantages-gaining model to comprehensively explore the recent innovative development and transformation of JD SCF business based on the perspective of competitive advantages. This study identifies JD SCF’s two times of business model innovations that benefit from its sustainable development; verifies that “cost”, “differentiation”, and “focused strategy” are three means for JD SCF practice gaining competitiveness at different development stages and simultaneously emphasizes that the latter two are influenced by business model innovation. The mixed analysis work in this paper may contribute both theoretical and practical implications.
供应链金融作为一种新兴的技术驱动的金融优化方式,随着信息技术的发展在全球范围内迅速发展起来。中国是一个值得关注的受气候变化发展影响的国家;以银行为主导的传统金融市场格局正在发生变化。以电子商务为核心的SCF已发展成为金融新“蓝海”市场中具有代表性的资本提供者。在获取竞争力方面,以京东电子商务为背景的中国京东SCF实践是商业模式创新的典型案例,但在这方面的相关研究较少。因此,为了填补研究空白,本文引入了基于三层战略创新结构的BMC (Business Model Canvas)理论分析和基于改进的竞争优势获取模型的财务分析相结合的方法,以竞争优势视角全面探讨京东供应链业务近年来的创新发展与转型。本研究发现京东SCF的两次商业模式创新受益于其可持续发展;验证了“成本”、“差异化”和“聚焦战略”是京东供应链物流实践在不同发展阶段获得竞争力的三种手段,同时强调了后两者受到商业模式创新的影响。本文的混合分析工作具有理论和实践意义。
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引用次数: 1
Scheduling Complex Cyber-Physical Systems with Mixed-Criticality Components 混合临界组件的复杂信息物理系统调度
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.3390/systems11060281
Jaewoo Lee, Keumseok Koh
Two emerging trends for designing a complex, cyber-physical systems are the component-based and mixed-criticality (MC) approaches. A component-based approach independently develops individual components and subsequently integrates them to reduce system complexity. This approach provides strong isolation among components but incurs resource inefficiency. Alternatively, an MC approach integrates components of different criticality with different levels of guarantee for resource efficiency, while components are not isolated. To leverage MC and component-based approaches, we investigate how to balance component isolation and resource efficiency under component-based MC systems. We introduce the concept of component-MC schedulability, where isolated tasks are protected from external events outside the component, and shared tasks may be suspended for the critical events of other components. Under component-MC schedulability, we propose a component-based mixed-criticality scheduling framework with dynamic resource allocation (CMC-DRA), which suspends low-criticality tasks differently depending on internal or external component behavior. We also develop scheduling semantics and analyze the schedulability for CMC-DRA. Through simulation on synthetic workloads, we demonstrate that CMC-DRA has up to 88.3% higher schedulability than existing approaches and reduces the deadline miss ratio by up to 47.7%.
设计复杂的网络物理系统的两个新兴趋势是基于组件和混合临界(MC)方法。基于组件的方法独立开发单个组件,然后将它们集成以降低系统复杂性。这种方法在组件之间提供了很强的隔离,但会导致资源效率低下。另外,MC方法将不同关键程度的组件与不同级别的资源效率保证集成在一起,而组件不是孤立的。为了利用MC和基于组件的方法,我们研究了如何在基于组件的MC系统下平衡组件隔离和资源效率。我们引入了组件- mc可调度性的概念,其中隔离的任务免受组件外部事件的影响,共享任务可能会因其他组件的关键事件而挂起。在组件- mc可调度性下,提出了一种基于组件的动态资源分配混合临界调度框架(CMC-DRA),该框架根据内部或外部组件的行为不同地暂停低临界任务。提出了调度语义,并对CMC-DRA的可调度性进行了分析。通过对合成工作负载的仿真,我们证明了CMC-DRA的可调度性比现有方法提高了88.3%,并将截止日期失误率降低了47.7%。
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引用次数: 0
Leading Role of Big Data Analytic Capability in Innovation Performance: Role of Organizational Readiness and Digital Orientation 大数据分析能力在创新绩效中的主导作用:组织准备和数字化导向的作用
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.3390/systems11060284
Rima H. Binsaeed, A. Grigorescu, Zahid Yousaf, E. Condrea, A. Nassani
The advancement of technology offers various opportunities for business organizations to achieve sustainable growth. Through emerging technologies, business organizations are able to collect and analyze essential information vital for the acceleration of innovation. Therefore, this study investigated how big data contribute to the innovation activities of manufacturing entrepreneurs in terms of big data analytic capability (BDAC). The aim of this study was to relate BDAC to organizational readiness and innovation performance (IP). Moreover, we examined the mediating role of organizational readiness between BDAC and IP. We also examined the strengthening role of digital orientation. To collect the study data, we approached 494 frontline managers of the manufacturing sector of Saudi Arabia. The collected data were analyzed using statistical techniques such as descriptive, correlation, and hierarchical regression techniques. We found that BDAC plays a vital role in developing organizational readiness and IP. The findings also proved that organizational readiness has a significant effect on IP. The results revealed that organizational readiness mediates between BDAC and IP.
技术的进步为商业组织实现可持续发展提供了各种机会。通过新兴技术,商业组织能够收集和分析对加速创新至关重要的重要信息。因此,本研究从大数据分析能力(BDAC)的角度考察了大数据如何促进制造业企业家的创新活动。本研究的目的在于探讨组织准备度与创新绩效之间的关系。此外,我们还考察了组织准备度在企业绩效评估与知识产权之间的中介作用。我们还研究了数字导向的强化作用。为了收集研究数据,我们接触了沙特阿拉伯制造业的494名一线管理人员。收集的数据使用描述性、相关性和层次回归技术等统计技术进行分析。我们发现,BDAC在发展组织准备和知识产权方面发挥着至关重要的作用。研究结果还证明,组织准备程度对知识产权有显著影响。结果表明,组织准备度在BDAC和IP之间起中介作用。
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引用次数: 2
An Assessment of the Effects of Food Districts on Sustainable Management of Land: The Case of Lombardia, Italy 食品区对土地可持续管理的影响评价——以意大利伦巴第为例
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.3390/systems11060283
F. Carillo, R. Henke, Alberto Sturla
The article aims to analyze whether a larger diffusion of institutional–private co-operation in farming systems, such as Italian food districts (FDs), is helpful in pursuing goals of sustainable land use in agriculture. The paper focuses on the case of Lombardia in Italy, a region where this form of public–private partnership is widespread throughout the regional territory. Combining differences-in-differences (DiD) and propensity score matching (PSM) methods to reduce the estimation bias, we assessed and quantified a “district effect” on the sustainable management of lands. Specifically, using several land-use and land-use change proxies as outcome measures, we verified whether there are significant differences in such outcomes between two different groups of municipalities: those involved in FDs and those not. Our analysis shows that there is an “FD effect” on the persistence of agricultural activity and, although this does not necessarily translate into more landscape diversity, it can at least counteract detrimental tendencies such as the loss of natural elements, the loss of landscape diversity due to intensive farming, and land abandonment.
这篇文章的目的是分析在农业系统中,如意大利食品区(FDs),机构-私人合作的更大扩散是否有助于追求农业可持续土地利用的目标。本文的重点是意大利伦巴第的案例,在这个地区,这种形式的公私伙伴关系在整个地区都很普遍。结合差分法(DiD)和倾向得分匹配法(PSM)减少估算偏差,对土地可持续管理的“区域效应”进行了评估和量化。具体地说,我们使用几个土地利用和土地利用变化代理作为结果测量,验证了两组不同的市政当局(参与fd的市政当局和未参与fd的市政当局)在这些结果上是否存在显著差异。我们的分析表明,对农业活动的持续存在“FD效应”,尽管这并不一定转化为更多的景观多样性,但它至少可以抵消有害趋势,如自然元素的丧失,集约化耕作导致的景观多样性的丧失,以及土地遗弃。
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引用次数: 0
Regional Transportation Integration and High-Quality Economic Development, Coupling Coordination Analysis, in the Yangtze River Delta, China 长三角区域交通一体化与经济高质量发展:耦合协调分析
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.3390/systems11060279
Na Li, Yun Song, Wen Xia, Shucai Fu
Regional transportation integration is a key aspect in promoting regional integration and high-quality economic development, as it can improve inter-regional connectivity, decrease transportation costs, and facilitate the flow of labor, capital, technology, and data. However, regional transportation integration is also difficult to quantitatively evaluate, causing difficulties in comprehensively understanding the specific transportation–economic relationships for different regions that are planned for integration. This article studied 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta, which is known as the largest regional integration project in China. Two sets of index systems were created to quantitatively evaluate regional transportation integration and high-quality economic development. Coupling coordination degree analysis was then performed to investigate the relationship between the two systems. It was found that areas with a high degree of coupling coordination are located in the Z-shaped belt with the Shanghai–Nanjing–Hefei and Shanghai–Hangzhou–Ningbo urban agglomerations. Furthermore, specific developmental gaps between regional transportation integration and high-quality economic development were identified and mapped, showing areas with transportation development falling behind economic development and vice versa. Based on these findings, a number of policy suggestions are provided from the perspective of province and regional development. It is recommended to continue to invest in transportation development and integration in the well-coordinated Z-shaped region and areas with transportation development falling behind economic development, while it is not recommended to use transportation investment to solve economic problems for those under-developed regions that already have relatively advanced transportation than economic development.
区域交通一体化能够提高区域互联互通水平,降低交通运输成本,促进劳动力、资本、技术和数据流动,是推动区域一体化和经济高质量发展的重要内容。然而,区域交通一体化也难以定量评价,难以全面理解规划一体化的不同区域的具体交通-经济关系。本文以中国最大的区域一体化项目——长三角41个城市为研究对象。建立了两套定量评价区域交通一体化和经济高质量发展的指标体系。然后进行耦合协调度分析,考察两个系统之间的关系。研究发现,耦合协调程度较高的区域与上海-南京-合肥、上海-杭州-宁波城市群呈“z”形带。此外,还识别并绘制了区域交通一体化与高质量经济发展之间的具体发展差距,显示了交通发展落后于经济发展的地区,反之亦然。在此基础上,从省域和区域发展的角度提出了若干政策建议。建议在协调良好的z型区域和交通发展落后于经济发展的地区,继续投资于交通发展和一体化,而对于交通已经相对发达于经济发展的欠发达地区,不建议用交通投资来解决经济问题。
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引用次数: 1
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