Pub Date : 2024-06-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2024.05.001
Raúl Aguilar-Elena, Juán José Agún-González
Background
This study represents the first Spanish investigation to rigorously evaluate compliance with the use of safety goggles and face masks as essential personal protective equipment (PPE) in companies with workplaces involving exposure to biological agents.
Objectives
This study aimed to examine the degree of use of face masks and safety goggles as personal protective equipment (PPE), the factors that influence their use, and the profile of workers exposed to occupational biological agents in Spanish companies in the health sector, farming sector, meat industry, waste treatment plants, food industry, and veterinary centers.
Methods
We conducted a cross-sectional descriptive study involving 590 Spanish workers from 51 companies. We developed a 34-item questionnaire to assess workers’ perception of risk related to exposure to biological agents in their workplaces. Among the questions, three were designed to measure the degree of use of key protective equipment in sectors with biological agent exposure: protective gloves, safety goggles or face masks. We only analyzed safety goggles and face masks. We performed various statistical analyses, including Cronbach’s alpha, frequency of endorsement, content validity ratio using Lawshe’s method, varimax rotation, the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin test, and Bartlett’s sphericity test, to assess the internal consistency and reliability of the questionnaire. Additionally, we employed a chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID) segmentation analysis, using workers’ responses regarding their attitudes toward safety goggles and face mask usage as PPE for protection against biological risks, with demographic variables as independent factors.
Results
In the current study, CHAID analysis revealed that workers exposed to group 2 biological agents used more safety goggles and face shields compared with workers exposed to other groups of biological agents. Moreover, workers in laboratories and the food industry used face masks more than workers of other sectors.
Conclusion
The CHAID analysis in the current study indicated that workers exposed to biological agents from both group 2 and group 3 demonstrated satisfactory levels of compliance and utilization of protective masks, surpassing their counterparts in terms of usage. Workers in the food and laboratory industries had subpar compliance with preventive measures, and employees from companies with internal health and safety departments exhibited significant adherence to workplace mask usage, safeguarding themselves against biological risks.
{"title":"Chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID) analysis of the use of safety goggles and face masks as personal protective equipment (PPE) to protect against occupational biohazards","authors":"Raúl Aguilar-Elena, Juán José Agún-González","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2024.05.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jobb.2024.05.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>This study represents the first Spanish investigation to rigorously evaluate compliance with the use of safety goggles and face masks as essential personal protective equipment (PPE) in companies with workplaces involving exposure to biological agents.</p></div><div><h3>Objectives</h3><p>This study aimed to examine the degree of use of face masks and safety goggles as personal protective equipment (PPE), the factors that influence their use, and the profile of workers exposed to occupational biological agents in Spanish companies in the health sector, farming sector, meat industry, waste treatment plants, food industry, and veterinary centers.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>We conducted a cross-sectional descriptive study involving 590 Spanish workers from 51 companies. We developed a 34-item questionnaire to assess workers’ perception of risk related to exposure to biological agents in their workplaces. Among the questions, three were designed to measure the degree of use of key protective equipment in sectors with biological agent exposure: protective gloves, safety goggles or face masks. We only analyzed safety goggles and face masks. We performed various statistical analyses, including Cronbach’s alpha, frequency of endorsement, content validity ratio using Lawshe’s method, varimax rotation, the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin test, and Bartlett’s sphericity test, to assess the internal consistency and reliability of the questionnaire. Additionally, we employed a chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID) segmentation analysis, using workers’ responses regarding their attitudes toward safety goggles and face mask usage as PPE for protection against biological risks, with demographic variables as independent factors.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>In the current study, CHAID analysis revealed that workers exposed to group 2 biological agents used more safety goggles and face shields compared with workers exposed to other groups of biological agents. Moreover, workers in laboratories and the food industry used face masks more than workers of other sectors.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>The CHAID analysis in the current study indicated that workers exposed to biological agents from both group 2 and group 3 demonstrated satisfactory levels of compliance and utilization of protective masks, surpassing their counterparts in terms of usage. Workers in the food and laboratory industries had subpar compliance with preventive measures, and employees from companies with internal health and safety departments exhibited significant adherence to workplace mask usage, safeguarding themselves against biological risks.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 125-133"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2588933824000190/pdfft?md5=4e6d1b822442a2758e44cf734863021f&pid=1-s2.0-S2588933824000190-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141145411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2024.06.001
{"title":"United Nations side event on the Biological Weapons Convention by Tianjin University and City, University of London","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2024.06.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jobb.2024.06.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"6 2","pages":"Page 134"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2588933824000220/pdfft?md5=e6383a2cb6198e811a9779c39a386705&pid=1-s2.0-S2588933824000220-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141314734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-14DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2024.04.001
Mohammad Ghani, Dwi Rantini, Maryamah
In this paper, we study the dynamics of the CoVid-19 outbreak in Semarang, Indonesia, using a fractional CoVid-19 model. We first determine the effects of the isolation rate and infection rate on the reproduction number and infected number V. We find that is directly proportional to and inversely proportional to . For V, the effect of physical distancing is not as significant as changing . As increases, V decreases, the number of susceptible individuals increases, the number of quarantined individuals decreases sharply, and the number of recovered individuals decreases. Moreover, the effect of vaccination is also considered. The combination of physical distancing, isolation, and vaccination has a significant impact on reducing the number of infected individuals. Analysis of dynamical systems allows us to understand the characteristics of our model, such as its boundedness and non-negativity, the existence of equilibrium points, the existence and uniqueness of solutions, and the local and global stability. To validate our fractional CoVid-19 model, we introduce the fractional extended Kalman filter (FracEKF) as a prediction method and compare the results against reported CoVid-19 data. FracEKF is a modified version of the basic extended Kalman filter with a time-fractional memory effect. The prediction results illustrate the accuracy of this model in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for each fractional-order. Varying reproduces the trends observed in the reported data for the number of infected individuals, i.e., when increases, the infected number decreases. Moreover, a higher fractional-order results in higher model accuracy. Furthermore, higher values of the process noise give smaller errors, whereas higher values of the observation noise produce higher errors. and the fractional-order are inversely proportional to
{"title":"Kalman filter based on a fractional discrete-time stochastic augmented CoVid-19 model","authors":"Mohammad Ghani, Dwi Rantini, Maryamah","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2024.04.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jobb.2024.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we study the dynamics of the CoVid-19 outbreak in Semarang, Indonesia, using a fractional CoVid-19 model. We first determine the effects of the isolation rate <span><math><mrow><mi>∊</mi></mrow></math></span> and infection rate <span><math><mrow><mi>β</mi></mrow></math></span> on the reproduction number <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> and infected number <em>V</em>. We find that <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> is directly proportional to <span><math><mrow><mi>β</mi></mrow></math></span> and inversely proportional to <span><math><mrow><mi>∊</mi></mrow></math></span>. For <em>V</em>, the effect of physical distancing is not as significant as changing <span><math><mrow><mi>∊</mi></mrow></math></span>. As <span><math><mrow><mi>∊</mi></mrow></math></span> increases, <em>V</em> decreases, the number of susceptible individuals increases, the number of quarantined individuals decreases sharply, and the number of recovered individuals decreases. Moreover, the effect of vaccination is also considered. The combination of physical distancing, isolation, and vaccination has a significant impact on reducing the number of infected individuals. Analysis of dynamical systems allows us to understand the characteristics of our model, such as its boundedness and non-negativity, the existence of equilibrium points, the existence and uniqueness of solutions, and the local and global stability. To validate our fractional CoVid-19 model, we introduce the fractional extended Kalman filter (FracEKF) as a prediction method and compare the results against reported CoVid-19 data. FracEKF is a modified version of the basic extended Kalman filter with a time-fractional memory effect. The prediction results illustrate the accuracy of this model in terms of the root mean square error (<em>RMSE</em>), normalized root mean square error (<em>NRMSE</em>), and mean absolute percentage error (<em>MAPE</em>) for each fractional-order. Varying <span><math><mrow><mi>∊</mi></mrow></math></span> reproduces the trends observed in the reported data for the number of infected individuals, i.e., when <span><math><mrow><mi>∊</mi></mrow></math></span> increases, the infected number decreases. Moreover, a higher fractional-order results in higher model accuracy. Furthermore, higher values of the process noise <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>Q</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>f</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> give smaller errors, whereas higher values of the observation noise <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>f</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> produce higher errors. <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>Q</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>f</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> and the fractional-order <span><math><mrow><mi>α</mi></mrow></math></span> are inversely proportional to <span><math><mrow><mi>RMSE</mi><mo>,</mo><mi>NRMSE","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 76-98"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2588933824000189/pdfft?md5=2065ed2bd4837d3db0e2355e9ccfeaa7&pid=1-s2.0-S2588933824000189-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141048701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-15DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2024.02.002
Ruiyang Zhou , Shaojian Cai , Guangmin Chen , Senzhong Huang , Zhen Jin , Zhihang Peng , Weichuan Lin , Fengying Wei , Kuicheng Zheng
The epidemiological characteristics and distributions of two epidemics in Fujian Province of Southeast China were attributed to the complex interactions among variant, host, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). All reported cases in the Putian epidemic (September 8–October 2, 2021, Delta variant B.1.617.2) and Fuzhou epidemic (October 22–November 18, 2022, Omicron variant BA.5.2) were classified by sex, age group, occupation, and location in this study. Using surveillance data from the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, we established a virus-oriented SVEIR (Susceptible–Vaccinated–Exposed–Infected–Recovered) model to investigate the dynamic evolution features of these two variants and the effects of NPIs. The optimal simulations were carried out with variants and scenario investigations. The scenario investigations showed that NPIs significantly reduced the transmission risk and infection scales of COVID-19, and that the Omicron variant was more infectious than the Delta variant. Moreover, the dynamic investigations revealed the increasing tendencies from Delta to Omicron, such as the basic reproduction number, infection rate, percentage of high-risk cases, and the growth rate. Decreasing tendencies were also identified, such as the average recovery period, the awareness delay, and the percentage of symptomatic cases. This study highlighted that NPIs played critical roles in successfully containing the two epidemics. Such interventions are strongly recommended to public health policymakers.
{"title":"Dynamic evolution of an SVEIR model with variants and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling COVID-19","authors":"Ruiyang Zhou , Shaojian Cai , Guangmin Chen , Senzhong Huang , Zhen Jin , Zhihang Peng , Weichuan Lin , Fengying Wei , Kuicheng Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2024.02.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jobb.2024.02.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The epidemiological characteristics and distributions of two epidemics in Fujian Province of Southeast China were attributed to the complex interactions among variant, host, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). All reported cases in the Putian epidemic (September 8–October 2, 2021, Delta variant B.1.617.2) and Fuzhou epidemic (October 22–November 18, 2022, Omicron variant BA.5.2) were classified by sex, age group, occupation, and location in this study. Using surveillance data from the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, we established a virus-oriented SVEIR (Susceptible–Vaccinated–Exposed–Infected–Recovered) model to investigate the dynamic evolution features of these two variants and the effects of NPIs. The optimal simulations were carried out with variants and scenario investigations. The scenario investigations showed that NPIs significantly reduced the transmission risk and infection scales of COVID-19, and that the Omicron variant was more infectious than the Delta variant. Moreover, the dynamic investigations revealed the increasing tendencies from Delta to Omicron, such as the basic reproduction number, infection rate, percentage of high-risk cases, and the growth rate. Decreasing tendencies were also identified, such as the average recovery period, the awareness delay, and the percentage of symptomatic cases. This study highlighted that NPIs played critical roles in successfully containing the two epidemics. Such interventions are strongly recommended to public health policymakers.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 67-75"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2588933824000050/pdfft?md5=e840458e0acbd9719fcb4c3a34a02694&pid=1-s2.0-S2588933824000050-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140792741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Biosafety and biosecurity in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region: Challenges and necessities","authors":"Karzan Qurbani, Safin Hussein, Sirwan Khalid Ahmed, Hanaw Darwesh, Seenaa Ali, Haider Hamzah","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2024.03.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jobb.2024.03.004","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 65-66"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2588933824000104/pdfft?md5=7a33b5fa3f2627872bd208fe2551e5fe&pid=1-s2.0-S2588933824000104-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140550976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-30DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2024.03.003
Michael Crowley, Malcolm Dando
In this paper we highlight how the apparent double coverage of toxins and bioregulators by both the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in fact masks a regulatory gap that has left such potentially dangerous agents neglected by both the control regimes during a period of rapid advances in relevant chemical, life and associated sciences and technologies. We first review what toxins, bioregulators and other mid-spectrum agents are and why they are of such concern and then examine how they are regulated under the BTWC and CWC. This paper then examines an illustrative range of contemporary chemical and life science research and associated activities of concern drawn from case study research on China, India, Iran, Russia, Syria and the United States, and assesses how the CWC and BTWC States Parties have inadequately addressed these threats. We then examine how both the CWC and BTWC Review Conferences failed to address these long-term challenges, and we end by providing a series of recommendations for how both regimes can be strengthened in this area.
{"title":"Regulation of toxins and bioregulators under the Chemical Weapons Convention and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention","authors":"Michael Crowley, Malcolm Dando","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2024.03.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jobb.2024.03.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper we highlight how the apparent double coverage of toxins and bioregulators by both the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in fact masks a regulatory gap that has left such potentially dangerous agents neglected by both the control regimes during a period of rapid advances in relevant chemical, life and associated sciences and technologies. We first review what toxins, bioregulators and other mid-spectrum agents are and why they are of such concern and then examine how they are regulated under the BTWC and CWC. This paper then examines an illustrative range of contemporary chemical and life science research and associated activities of concern drawn from case study research on China, India, Iran, Russia, Syria and the United States, and assesses how the CWC and BTWC States Parties have inadequately addressed these threats. We then examine how both the CWC and BTWC Review Conferences failed to address these long-term challenges, and we end by providing a series of recommendations for how both regimes can be strengthened in this area.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 99-112"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2588933824000098/pdfft?md5=aa875d726ef0ce2dc9e47193a67fbf86&pid=1-s2.0-S2588933824000098-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140399615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2024.02.001
Alina C. Teuscher , Charlotte Ruhnau , Nicole Stöcklin , Fabienne Wichmann , Evelyn Ilg Hampe , Claudia Bagutti
Laboratory wastewater has been suggested as an important escape route for microorganisms from research environments. Likely reasons for the unintentional release of laboratory organisms are shortcomings in the handling of infectious liquid biological waste (LBW) and inadequate inactivation procedures. We developed an analytical approach to investigate the use of chemical inactivation (CI) procedures in Swiss research laboratories by on-site random sampling of presumably inactivated infectious LBW and testing it for the presence of infectious lentiviruses (HIV-1) and adenoviruses (AdV). In addition, standard operating procedures (SOPs) for CI were collected and evaluated, and laboratory-staff knowledge of CI processes was assessed using a questionnaire. Although we found several deficiencies in the technical knowledge and training of laboratory staff on the CI of LBW, as documented by 27 returned questionnaires, no infectious viruses were detected in the eight LBW samples collected. Whilst we acknowledge that the number of LBW samples and SOPs is small, we conclude that CI of LBW containing infectious lentiviruses and adenoviruses does not result in the systematic release of considerable amounts of infectious viruses into the environment from research laboratories in Switzerland.
实验室废水被认为是微生物从研究环境中逃逸的重要途径。造成实验室生物无意释放的原因可能是在处理传染性液体生物废物（LBW）方面存在缺陷以及灭活程序不当。我们开发了一种分析方法来调查瑞士研究实验室中化学灭活（CI）程序的使用情况，具体做法是现场随机取样，检测可能已灭活的传染性液态生物废料中是否存在传染性慢病毒（HIV-1）和腺病毒（AdV）。此外，我们还收集并评估了 CI 的标准操作程序 (SOP)，并通过问卷调查评估了实验室工作人员对 CI 流程的了解程度。虽然我们发现实验室工作人员在枸杞子的 CI 技术知识和培训方面存在一些不足（27 份收回的调查问卷记录了这些不足），但在收集到的 8 份枸杞子样本中没有检测到传染性病毒。虽然我们承认枸杞样品和标准操作程序的数量较少，但我们得出结论认为，对含有传染性慢病毒和腺病毒的枸杞进行CI不会导致瑞士研究实验室向环境中系统性地释放大量传染性病毒。
{"title":"Effectiveness of chemical inactivation of infectious liquid biological waste: A randomized sample study of research laboratories in Switzerland","authors":"Alina C. Teuscher , Charlotte Ruhnau , Nicole Stöcklin , Fabienne Wichmann , Evelyn Ilg Hampe , Claudia Bagutti","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2024.02.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jobb.2024.02.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Laboratory wastewater has been suggested as an important escape route for microorganisms from research environments. Likely reasons for the unintentional release of laboratory organisms are shortcomings in the handling of infectious liquid biological waste (LBW) and inadequate inactivation procedures. We developed an analytical approach to investigate the use of chemical inactivation (CI) procedures in Swiss research laboratories by on-site random sampling of presumably inactivated infectious LBW and testing it for the presence of infectious lentiviruses (HIV-1) and adenoviruses (AdV). In addition, standard operating procedures (SOPs) for CI were collected and evaluated, and laboratory-staff knowledge of CI processes was assessed using a questionnaire. Although we found several deficiencies in the technical knowledge and training of laboratory staff on the CI of LBW, as documented by 27 returned questionnaires, no infectious viruses were detected in the eight LBW samples collected. Whilst we acknowledge that the number of LBW samples and SOPs is small, we conclude that CI of LBW containing infectious lentiviruses and adenoviruses does not result in the systematic release of considerable amounts of infectious viruses into the environment from research laboratories in Switzerland.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"6 1","pages":"Pages 16-26"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2588933824000049/pdfft?md5=3b90d552352992df0ce804399f533c54&pid=1-s2.0-S2588933824000049-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140069441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2024.02.003
Raqqasyi R. Musafir, Agus Suryanto, Isnani Darti, Trisilowati
The monkeypox epidemic has become a global health issue due to its rapid transmission involving nonhuman-to-human transmission in nonendemic areas. Various actions, such as quarantine, vaccination, and hospitalization, have been implemented by worldwide governments. Given the relatively high cost and strict implementation of vaccination, our focus lies on quarantine and hospitalization. In this paper, we study the monkeypox epidemic involving quarantine and hospitalization through fractional-order mathematical modeling. The proposed model considers six classes of human populations (susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, hospitalized, and recovered) and three classes of nonhuman populations (susceptible, exposed, and infected). The basic properties of the model have been investigated, and its equilibrium points have been obtained, namely monkeypox-free, nonhuman-free endemic, and endemic. We have derived the basic reproduction numbers for human-to-human and nonhuman-to-nonhuman transmissions, denoted as and respectively. The existence and stability (both locally and globally) of each equilibrium point depend on and relative to unity. We performed calibration and forecasting of the model on the weekly monkeypox case data of the human population in the United States of America from June 1 to September 23, 2022. Research findings indicate that the fractional-order model shows better calibration and forecasting compared to the corresponding first-order model based on the root mean square error. Furthermore, the best-fitting model calibration indicates , suggesting the potential for endemic conditions in humans. However, the best forecasting shows , possibly due to various policies such as vaccination. Given the relative cost and stringency of vaccination implementation for monkeypox control, we perform numerical simulations and sensitivity analyses on the basic reproduction number, particularly focusing on the impact of quarantine and hospitalization rates. Simulations and sensitivity analysis indicate that simultaneous increases in quarantine and hospitalization rates can reduce the basic reproduction number
{"title":"Stability analysis of a fractional-order monkeypox epidemic model with quarantine and hospitalization","authors":"Raqqasyi R. Musafir, Agus Suryanto, Isnani Darti, Trisilowati","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2024.02.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jobb.2024.02.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The monkeypox epidemic has become a global health issue due to its rapid transmission involving nonhuman-to-human transmission in nonendemic areas. Various actions, such as quarantine, vaccination, and hospitalization, have been implemented by worldwide governments. Given the relatively high cost and strict implementation of vaccination, our focus lies on quarantine and hospitalization. In this paper, we study the monkeypox epidemic involving quarantine and hospitalization through fractional-order mathematical modeling. The proposed model considers six classes of human populations (susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, hospitalized, and recovered) and three classes of nonhuman populations (susceptible, exposed, and infected). The basic properties of the model have been investigated, and its equilibrium points have been obtained, namely monkeypox-free, nonhuman-free endemic, and endemic. We have derived the basic reproduction numbers for human-to-human and nonhuman-to-nonhuman transmissions, denoted as <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>0</mn><mi>h</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> and <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>0</mn><mi>n</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> respectively. The existence and stability (both locally and globally) of each equilibrium point depend on <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>0</mn><mi>h</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> and <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>0</mn><mi>n</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> relative to unity. We performed calibration and forecasting of the model on the weekly monkeypox case data of the human population in the United States of America from June 1 to September 23, 2022. Research findings indicate that the fractional-order model shows better calibration and forecasting compared to the corresponding first-order model based on the root mean square error. Furthermore, the best-fitting model calibration indicates <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub><mo>=</mo><mi>max</mi><mrow><mo>{</mo><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>0</mn><mi>h</mi></mrow></msub><mo>,</mo><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>0</mn><mi>n</mi></mrow></msub><mo>}</mo></mrow><mo>></mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span>, suggesting the potential for endemic conditions in humans. However, the best forecasting shows <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub><mo><</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span>, possibly due to various policies such as vaccination. Given the relative cost and stringency of vaccination implementation for monkeypox control, we perform numerical simulations and sensitivity analyses on the basic reproduction number, particularly focusing on the impact of quarantine and hospitalization rates. Simulations and sensitivity analysis indicate that simultaneous increases in quarantine and hospitalization rates can reduce the basic reproduction number <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>0</mn><mi>h</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math></spa","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"6 1","pages":"Pages 34-50"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2588933824000062/pdfft?md5=f27d3468b5e20300f8c775eb07d682e9&pid=1-s2.0-S2588933824000062-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140281839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2023.12.004
Bobo Liu , Cui Huang , Jingcheng Wu , Tianchan Yi , Zhiming Yuan
The sharing of pathogens is of great significance for the continuous and comprehensive testing and monitoring of viral samples, vaccine and drug development, and the study of drug resistance and mutability of viral samples. This paper reviews the current legal framework in the field of pathogen sharing, analyzes existing issues, and proposes recommendations to improve the legal framework of pathogen sharing.
{"title":"Legal framework for the sharing of pathogens: Issues and recommendations","authors":"Bobo Liu , Cui Huang , Jingcheng Wu , Tianchan Yi , Zhiming Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.12.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.12.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The sharing of pathogens is of great significance for the continuous and comprehensive testing and monitoring of viral samples, vaccine and drug development, and the study of drug resistance and mutability of viral samples. This paper reviews the current legal framework in the field of pathogen sharing, analyzes existing issues, and proposes recommendations to improve the legal framework of pathogen sharing.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"6 1","pages":"Pages 27-33"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2588933824000025/pdfft?md5=8e4e2f6c2ef7232cfa548aad5fb982ef&pid=1-s2.0-S2588933824000025-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139813021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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