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Kalman filter based on a fractional discrete-time stochastic augmented CoVid-19 model 基于分数离散时间随机增强 CoVid-19 模型的卡尔曼滤波器
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2024.04.001
Mohammad Ghani, Dwi Rantini, Maryamah

In this paper, we study the dynamics of the CoVid-19 outbreak in Semarang, Indonesia, using a fractional CoVid-19 model. We first determine the effects of the isolation rate and infection rate β on the reproduction number R0 and infected number V. We find that R0 is directly proportional to β and inversely proportional to . For V, the effect of physical distancing is not as significant as changing . As increases, V decreases, the number of susceptible individuals increases, the number of quarantined individuals decreases sharply, and the number of recovered individuals decreases. Moreover, the effect of vaccination is also considered. The combination of physical distancing, isolation, and vaccination has a significant impact on reducing the number of infected individuals. Analysis of dynamical systems allows us to understand the characteristics of our model, such as its boundedness and non-negativity, the existence of equilibrium points, the existence and uniqueness of solutions, and the local and global stability. To validate our fractional CoVid-19 model, we introduce the fractional extended Kalman filter (FracEKF) as a prediction method and compare the results against reported CoVid-19 data. FracEKF is a modified version of the basic extended Kalman filter with a time-fractional memory effect. The prediction results illustrate the accuracy of this model in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for each fractional-order. Varying reproduces the trends observed in the reported data for the number of infected individuals, i.e., when increases, the infected number decreases. Moreover, a higher fractional-order results in higher model accuracy. Furthermore, higher values of the process noise Qf give smaller errors, whereas higher values of the observation noise Rf produce higher errors. Qf and the fractional-order α are inversely proportional to RMSE,NRMSE
本文使用分数 CoVid-19 模型研究了印度尼西亚三宝垄 CoVid-19 爆发的动态。我们首先确定了隔离率 ∊ 和感染率 β 对繁殖数 R0 和感染数 V 的影响。对于 V 而言,物理距离的影响不如改变∊那么显著。随着 ∊ 的增大,V 会减小,易感个体的数量会增加,隔离个体的数量会急剧下降,康复个体的数量会减少。此外,还考虑了疫苗接种的影响。物理距离、隔离和接种疫苗的组合对减少受感染个体的数量有显著影响。通过对动力系统的分析,我们可以了解模型的特点,如其有界性和非负性、平衡点的存在性、解的存在性和唯一性以及局部和全局稳定性。为了验证我们的分数 CoVid-19 模型,我们引入了分数扩展卡尔曼滤波器(FracEKF)作为预测方法,并将结果与报告的 CoVid-19 数据进行比较。FracEKF 是基本扩展卡尔曼滤波器的改进版,具有时间分数记忆效应。预测结果表明了该模型在每个分阶的均方根误差 (RMSE)、归一化均方根误差 (NRMSE) 和平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 方面的准确性。∊的变化再现了报告数据中观察到的受感染个体数量趋势,即当∊增加时,受感染个体数量减少。此外,分数阶越高,模型精度越高。此外,过程噪声 Qf 值越高,误差越小,而观测噪声 Rf 值越高,误差越大。Qf 和分阶 α 与 RMSE、NRMSE 和 MAPE 成反比,而 Rf 与 RMSE、NRMSE 和 MAPE 成正比。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic evolution of an SVEIR model with variants and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling COVID-19 控制 COVID-19 的带有变体和非药物干预措施的 SVEIR 模型的动态演变
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2024.02.002
Ruiyang Zhou , Shaojian Cai , Guangmin Chen , Senzhong Huang , Zhen Jin , Zhihang Peng , Weichuan Lin , Fengying Wei , Kuicheng Zheng

The epidemiological characteristics and distributions of two epidemics in Fujian Province of Southeast China were attributed to the complex interactions among variant, host, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). All reported cases in the Putian epidemic (September 8–October 2, 2021, Delta variant B.1.617.2) and Fuzhou epidemic (October 22–November 18, 2022, Omicron variant BA.5.2) were classified by sex, age group, occupation, and location in this study. Using surveillance data from the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, we established a virus-oriented SVEIR (Susceptible–Vaccinated–Exposed–Infected–Recovered) model to investigate the dynamic evolution features of these two variants and the effects of NPIs. The optimal simulations were carried out with variants and scenario investigations. The scenario investigations showed that NPIs significantly reduced the transmission risk and infection scales of COVID-19, and that the Omicron variant was more infectious than the Delta variant. Moreover, the dynamic investigations revealed the increasing tendencies from Delta to Omicron, such as the basic reproduction number, infection rate, percentage of high-risk cases, and the growth rate. Decreasing tendencies were also identified, such as the average recovery period, the awareness delay, and the percentage of symptomatic cases. This study highlighted that NPIs played critical roles in successfully containing the two epidemics. Such interventions are strongly recommended to public health policymakers.

中国东南部福建省两次疫情的流行病学特征和分布归因于变异体、宿主和非药物干预(NPIs)之间复杂的相互作用。本研究对莆田疫情(2021年9月8日至10月2日,Delta变异体B.1.617.2)和福州疫情(2022年10月22日至11月18日,Omicron变异体BA.5.2)的所有报告病例按性别、年龄组、职业和地点进行了分类。利用福建省疾病预防控制中心的监测数据,我们建立了一个以病毒为导向的 SVEIR(易感-接种-暴露-感染-康复)模型,以研究这两个变异体的动态演化特征和 NPIs 的影响。通过变异和情景调查进行了优化模拟。情景调查显示,NPIs 显著降低了 COVID-19 的传播风险和感染规模,而且 Omicron 变种比 Delta 变种更具感染性。此外,动态调查显示,从德尔塔变种到欧米克隆变种,基本繁殖数、感染率、高危病例百分比和增长率等都呈上升趋势。同时还发现了下降趋势,如平均恢复期、认知延迟和无症状病例的百分比。这项研究强调,非传染性疾病在成功遏制这两次疫情中发挥了关键作用。我们强烈建议公共卫生决策者采取此类干预措施。
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引用次数: 0
Biosafety and biosecurity in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region: Challenges and necessities 伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区的生物安全和生物安保:挑战和必要性
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2024.03.004
Karzan Qurbani, Safin Hussein, Sirwan Khalid Ahmed, Hanaw Darwesh, Seenaa Ali, Haider Hamzah
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引用次数: 0
Regulation of toxins and bioregulators under the Chemical Weapons Convention and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention 根据《化学武器公约》和《生物和毒素武器公约》对毒素和生物调节剂进行监管
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2024.03.003
Michael Crowley, Malcolm Dando

In this paper we highlight how the apparent double coverage of toxins and bioregulators by both the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in fact masks a regulatory gap that has left such potentially dangerous agents neglected by both the control regimes during a period of rapid advances in relevant chemical, life and associated sciences and technologies. We first review what toxins, bioregulators and other mid-spectrum agents are and why they are of such concern and then examine how they are regulated under the BTWC and CWC. This paper then examines an illustrative range of contemporary chemical and life science research and associated activities of concern drawn from case study research on China, India, Iran, Russia, Syria and the United States, and assesses how the CWC and BTWC States Parties have inadequately addressed these threats. We then examine how both the CWC and BTWC Review Conferences failed to address these long-term challenges, and we end by providing a series of recommendations for how both regimes can be strengthened in this area.

在本文中,我们将强调《生物和毒素武器公约》(BTWC)和《化学武器公约》(CWC)表面上对毒素和生物调节剂的双重覆盖,实际上如何掩盖了一个监管漏洞,在相关化学、生命和相关科学与技术快速发展的时期,这一漏洞使得这些潜在危险制剂被这两个管制制度所忽视。我们首先回顾了什么是毒素、生物抑制剂和其他中谱物剂以及它们为何如此令人担忧,然后研究了《生物和毒素武器公约》和《化学武器公约》是如何对它们进行监管的。然后,本文通过对中国、印度、伊朗、俄罗斯、叙利亚和美国的案例研究,对一系列令人担忧的当代化学和生命科学研究及相关活动进行了分析,并评估了《化学武器公约》和《生物和毒素武器公约》缔约国如何未能充分应对这些威胁。然后,我们研究了《化学武器公约》和《生物和毒素武器公约》审议大会是如何未能应对这些长期挑战的,最后我们就如何在这一领域加强这两个制度提出了一系列建议。
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引用次数: 0
Effectiveness of chemical inactivation of infectious liquid biological waste: A randomized sample study of research laboratories in Switzerland 化学灭活传染性液体生物废物的效果:瑞士研究实验室随机抽样研究
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2024.02.001
Alina C. Teuscher , Charlotte Ruhnau , Nicole Stöcklin , Fabienne Wichmann , Evelyn Ilg Hampe , Claudia Bagutti

Laboratory wastewater has been suggested as an important escape route for microorganisms from research environments. Likely reasons for the unintentional release of laboratory organisms are shortcomings in the handling of infectious liquid biological waste (LBW) and inadequate inactivation procedures. We developed an analytical approach to investigate the use of chemical inactivation (CI) procedures in Swiss research laboratories by on-site random sampling of presumably inactivated infectious LBW and testing it for the presence of infectious lentiviruses (HIV-1) and adenoviruses (AdV). In addition, standard operating procedures (SOPs) for CI were collected and evaluated, and laboratory-staff knowledge of CI processes was assessed using a questionnaire. Although we found several deficiencies in the technical knowledge and training of laboratory staff on the CI of LBW, as documented by 27 returned questionnaires, no infectious viruses were detected in the eight LBW samples collected. Whilst we acknowledge that the number of LBW samples and SOPs is small, we conclude that CI of LBW containing infectious lentiviruses and adenoviruses does not result in the systematic release of considerable amounts of infectious viruses into the environment from research laboratories in Switzerland.

实验室废水被认为是微生物从研究环境中逃逸的重要途径。造成实验室生物无意释放的原因可能是在处理传染性液体生物废物(LBW)方面存在缺陷以及灭活程序不当。我们开发了一种分析方法来调查瑞士研究实验室中化学灭活(CI)程序的使用情况,具体做法是现场随机取样,检测可能已灭活的传染性液态生物废料中是否存在传染性慢病毒(HIV-1)和腺病毒(AdV)。此外,我们还收集并评估了 CI 的标准操作程序 (SOP),并通过问卷调查评估了实验室工作人员对 CI 流程的了解程度。虽然我们发现实验室工作人员在枸杞子的 CI 技术知识和培训方面存在一些不足(27 份收回的调查问卷记录了这些不足),但在收集到的 8 份枸杞子样本中没有检测到传染性病毒。虽然我们承认枸杞样品和标准操作程序的数量较少,但我们得出结论认为,对含有传染性慢病毒和腺病毒的枸杞进行CI不会导致瑞士研究实验室向环境中系统性地释放大量传染性病毒。
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引用次数: 0
Stability analysis of a fractional-order monkeypox epidemic model with quarantine and hospitalization 带检疫和住院的分数阶猴痘流行病模型的稳定性分析
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2024.02.003
Raqqasyi R. Musafir, Agus Suryanto, Isnani Darti, Trisilowati

The monkeypox epidemic has become a global health issue due to its rapid transmission involving nonhuman-to-human transmission in nonendemic areas. Various actions, such as quarantine, vaccination, and hospitalization, have been implemented by worldwide governments. Given the relatively high cost and strict implementation of vaccination, our focus lies on quarantine and hospitalization. In this paper, we study the monkeypox epidemic involving quarantine and hospitalization through fractional-order mathematical modeling. The proposed model considers six classes of human populations (susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, hospitalized, and recovered) and three classes of nonhuman populations (susceptible, exposed, and infected). The basic properties of the model have been investigated, and its equilibrium points have been obtained, namely monkeypox-free, nonhuman-free endemic, and endemic. We have derived the basic reproduction numbers for human-to-human and nonhuman-to-nonhuman transmissions, denoted as R0h and R0n respectively. The existence and stability (both locally and globally) of each equilibrium point depend on R0h and R0n relative to unity. We performed calibration and forecasting of the model on the weekly monkeypox case data of the human population in the United States of America from June 1 to September 23, 2022. Research findings indicate that the fractional-order model shows better calibration and forecasting compared to the corresponding first-order model based on the root mean square error. Furthermore, the best-fitting model calibration indicates R0=max{R0h,R0n}>1, suggesting the potential for endemic conditions in humans. However, the best forecasting shows R0<1, possibly due to various policies such as vaccination. Given the relative cost and stringency of vaccination implementation for monkeypox control, we perform numerical simulations and sensitivity analyses on the basic reproduction number, particularly focusing on the impact of quarantine and hospitalization rates. Simulations and sensitivity analysis indicate that simultaneous increases in quarantine and hospitalization rates can reduce the basic reproduction number R0h

猴痘疫情已成为一个全球性的健康问题,因为它传播迅速,在非流行地区会出现非人传人的情况。世界各国政府采取了各种措施,如隔离、接种疫苗和住院治疗。鉴于疫苗接种的成本相对较高且执行严格,我们将重点放在检疫和住院治疗上。本文通过分数阶数学模型研究了涉及检疫和住院治疗的猴痘疫情。所提出的模型考虑了六类人类人群(易感人群、暴露人群、感染人群、隔离人群、住院人群和康复人群)和三类非人类人群(易感人群、暴露人群和感染人群)。我们研究了该模型的基本特性,并得出了其平衡点,即无猴痘、非人类无流行和流行。我们得出了人传人和非人传非人的基本繁殖数,分别记为 R0h 和 R0n。每个平衡点的存在性和稳定性(局部和全局)都取决于 R0h 和 R0n 相对于统一值的关系。我们利用美国 2022 年 6 月 1 日至 9 月 23 日的每周猴痘病例数据对模型进行了校准和预测。研究结果表明,与相应的一阶模型相比,基于均方根误差的分数阶模型显示出更好的校准和预测效果。此外,最佳拟合模型校准表明 R0=max{R0h,R0n}>1 ,这表明人类有可能出现地方病。然而,最佳预测显示 R0<1,这可能是由于疫苗接种等各种政策造成的。考虑到为控制猴痘而实施疫苗接种的相对成本和严格程度,我们对基本繁殖数进行了数值模拟和敏感性分析,尤其侧重于检疫和住院率的影响。模拟和敏感性分析表明,同时提高检疫率和住院率可使基本繁殖数 R0h 降至 1 以下。因此,猴痘疫情可以被根除。此外,分数阶导数在决定猴痘病例的峰值以及猴痘流行或消亡的速度方面起着至关重要的作用。记忆效应、检疫和住院等因素对猴痘建模研究有重要影响,尤其是在捕捉生物现象方面。
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引用次数: 0
Legal framework for the sharing of pathogens: Issues and recommendations 病原体共享的法律框架:问题与建议
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2023.12.004
Bobo Liu , Cui Huang , Jingcheng Wu , Tianchan Yi , Zhiming Yuan

The sharing of pathogens is of great significance for the continuous and comprehensive testing and monitoring of viral samples, vaccine and drug development, and the study of drug resistance and mutability of viral samples. This paper reviews the current legal framework in the field of pathogen sharing, analyzes existing issues, and proposes recommendations to improve the legal framework of pathogen sharing.

病原体共享对于病毒样本的持续和全面检测与监测、疫苗和药物开发以及病毒样本的耐药性和变异性研究具有重要意义。本文回顾了病原体共享领域的现行法律框架,分析了存在的问题,并提出了完善病原体共享法律框架的建议。
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引用次数: 0
United Kingdom Health Security Agency announces 5-year Pathogen Genomics Strategy 英国卫生安全局宣布为期 5 年的病原体基因组学战略
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2024.03.002
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引用次数: 0
Development and assessment of cutting-edge biotechnologies 开发和评估尖端生物技术
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2024.03.001
Xiaofeng Hu , Baichuan Xu , Mingliang Chen , Kexin Li , Yang Xiao , Shengnan Liang , Chuanfu Zhang , Hui Ma , Hongbin Song

The emergence of advanced biotechnologies has intensified in recent years. The rapid development of these biotechnologies has had a wide and profound impact globally, with the majority on the frontier of biosecurity technologies. The global biosecurity situation is currently highly challenging, with the characteristics of internationalization, extremely serious harm, and complex development. The misuse and abuse of biotechnologies are common, which thereby endanger biosecurity. The international community and governments have attached great importance to cutting-edge biotechnologies and are implementing laws and regulations to control and prevent biosecurity-related influences. By tracking the frontier progress of the new technologies generated from gene editing, gene drives, synthetic biology, and related cross-disciplines as applied in the biosecurity field, we analyzed the development trends in biotechnologies and their potential influence. On the one hand, this paper proposes that there is an urgent need for global cooperation to formulate management, control strategies, and measures for cutting-edge technologies in biosecurity to jointly promote their sound development. On the other hand, the international community should jointly shoulder the responsibility for safeguarding biosecurity and restrict the biotechnologies to rational applications within legal and ethical frameworks. This paper aims to provide a reference for the prevention of misuse and abuse of biotechnologies and support global cooperation in biosecurity governance.

近年来,先进生物技术不断涌现。这些生物技术的迅猛发展在全球范围内产生了广泛而深刻的影响,其中大部分处于生物安全技术的前沿。当前,全球生物安全形势极具挑战性,呈现出国际化、危害极严重、发展极复杂的特点。生物技术被滥用和误用的现象屡见不鲜,从而危及生物安全。国际社会和各国政府高度重视前沿生物技术,纷纷出台法律法规,控制和防范生物安全相关影响因素。通过跟踪基因编辑、基因驱动、合成生物学以及相关交叉学科产生的新技术在生物安全领域应用的前沿进展,分析生物技术的发展趋势及其潜在影响。一方面,本文提出迫切需要开展全球合作,制定生物安全领域前沿技术的管理、控制策略和措施,共同促进其健康发展。另一方面,国际社会应共同承担起维护生物安全的责任,将生物技术限制在法律和伦理框架内合理应用。本文旨在为防止生物技术的误用和滥用提供参考,为生物安全治理的全球合作提供支持。
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引用次数: 0
Emerging bedaquiline resistance: A threat to the global fight against drug-resistant tuberculosis 新出现的贝达喹啉抗药性:对全球抗击耐药结核病斗争的威胁
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2024.01.001
Prakasini Satapathy , Ramaiah Itumalla , Ahmad Neyazi , Abdul Mobin Nabizai Taraki , Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib , Shilpa Gaidhane , Quazi Syed Zahiruddin , Sarvesh Rustagi , Mehrab Neyazi

Bedaquiline resistance is increasingly observed in the treatment of rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (TB), yet standardized regimens for managing bedaquiline-resistant TB are lacking. Studies indicate a high proportion of bedaquiline-resistant cases have previously been treated for TB, and often involve strains resistant to quinolones. Regular monitoring of the culture status in patients receiving bedaquiline resistance treatment is advised. Methods such as experimental evolution, protein modeling, genome sequencing, and phenotypic analysis have been instrumental in identifying the mechanisms of bedaquiline resistance. Specifically, variants in the Rv0678 transcriptional repressor of the MmpS5-MmpL5 efflux system are linked to this type of resistance. Bayesian probability estimates show promise in determining the genotypic–phenotypic association for bedaquiline resistance, suggesting potential utility in clinical practice. Future research should explore the practical application of Bayesian probabilities in managing bedaquiline resistance. Sequencing-based technologies are anticipated to play a vital role in the early detection and management of drug-resistant TB strains.

在治疗耐利福平结核病(TB)的过程中,贝达喹啉耐药性的观察结果越来越多,但目前还缺乏管理贝达喹啉耐药性结核病的标准化方案。研究表明,耐贝达喹啉的病例中有很大一部分曾接受过结核病治疗,而且往往是对喹诺酮类药物耐药的菌株。建议定期监测接受贝达喹啉耐药治疗患者的培养状况。实验进化、蛋白质建模、基因组测序和表型分析等方法有助于确定贝达喹啉耐药机制。具体来说,MmpS5-MmpL5 外排系统的 Rv0678 转录抑制因子的变异与这种耐药性有关。贝叶斯概率估计在确定贝达喹啉耐药性的基因型-表型关联方面显示出前景,这表明贝叶斯概率估计在临床实践中具有潜在的实用性。未来的研究应探索贝叶斯概率在贝达喹啉耐药性管理中的实际应用。基于测序的技术预计将在耐药结核菌株的早期检测和管理中发挥重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
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