首页 > 最新文献

Journal of Sports Analytics最新文献

英文 中文
Investigating the efficiency of the Asian handicap football betting market with ratings and Bayesian networks 用评级和贝叶斯网络研究亚洲残疾人足球博彩市场的效率
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2020-03-10 DOI: 10.3233/JSA-200588
A. Constantinou
Despite the massive popularity of the Asian Handicap (AH) football (soccer) betting market, its efficiency has not been adequately studied by the relevant literature. This paper combines rating systems with Bayesian networks and presents the first published model specifically developed for prediction and assessment of the efficiency of the AH betting market. The results are based on 13 English Premier League seasons and are compared to the traditional market, where the bets are for win, lose or draw. Different betting situations have been examined including a) both average and maximum (best available) market odds, b) all possible betting decision thresholds between predicted and published odds, c) optimisations for both return-on-investment and profit, and d) simple stake adjustments to investigate how the variance of returns changes when targeting equivalent profit in both traditional and AH markets. While the AH market is found to share the inefficiencies of the traditional market, the findings reveal both interesting differences as well as similarities between the two.
尽管亚洲残疾人足球博彩市场非常受欢迎,但相关文献并未充分研究其效率。本文将评级系统与贝叶斯网络相结合,并提出了第一个专门为预测和评估AH博彩市场效率而开发的已发表模型。结果基于13个英超赛季,并与传统市场进行了比较,传统市场的赌注是输赢或平局。已经检查了不同的投注情况,包括a)平均和最大(最佳可用)市场赔率,b)预测和公布赔率之间的所有可能的投注决策阈值,c)投资回报率和利润的优化,以及d)简单的股权调整,以调查在传统市场和AH市场中以同等利润为目标时回报的方差如何变化。虽然AH市场与传统市场一样效率低下,但研究结果揭示了两者之间有趣的差异和相似之处。
{"title":"Investigating the efficiency of the Asian handicap football betting market with ratings and Bayesian networks","authors":"A. Constantinou","doi":"10.3233/JSA-200588","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3233/JSA-200588","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the massive popularity of the Asian Handicap (AH) football (soccer) betting market, its efficiency has not been adequately studied by the relevant literature. This paper combines rating systems with Bayesian networks and presents the first published model specifically developed for prediction and assessment of the efficiency of the AH betting market. The results are based on 13 English Premier League seasons and are compared to the traditional market, where the bets are for win, lose or draw. Different betting situations have been examined including a) both average and maximum (best available) market odds, b) all possible betting decision thresholds between predicted and published odds, c) optimisations for both return-on-investment and profit, and d) simple stake adjustments to investigate how the variance of returns changes when targeting equivalent profit in both traditional and AH markets. While the AH market is found to share the inefficiencies of the traditional market, the findings reveal both interesting differences as well as similarities between the two.","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2020-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47307274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecasting football matches by predicting match statistics 通过预测比赛统计数据预测足球比赛
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2020-01-24 DOI: 10.3233/JSA-200462
E. Wheatcroft
This paper considers the use of observed and predicted match statistics as inputs to forecasts for the outcomes of football matches. It is shown that, were it possible to know the match statistics in advance, highly informative forecasts of the match outcome could be made. Whilst, in practice, match statistics are clearly never available prior to the match, this leads to a simple philosophy. If match statistics can be predicted pre-match, and if those predictions are accurate enough, it follows that informative match forecasts can be made. Two approaches to the prediction of match statistics are demonstrated: Generalised Attacking Performance (GAP) ratings and a set of ratings based on the Bivariate Poisson model which are named Bivariate Attacking (BA) ratings. It is shown that both approaches provide a suitable methodology for predicting match statistics in advance and that they are informative enough to provide information beyond that reflected in the odds. A long term and robust gambling profit is demonstrated when the forecasts are combined with two betting strategies.
本文考虑使用观察和预测的比赛统计数据作为预测足球比赛结果的输入。研究表明,如果能够提前了解比赛统计数据,就可以对比赛结果进行高信息量的预测。然而,在实践中,比赛统计数据显然在比赛之前是不可用的,这导致了一个简单的哲学。如果比赛统计数据可以在赛前预测,如果这些预测足够准确,那么就可以进行信息丰富的比赛预测。展示了两种预测比赛统计数据的方法:广义攻击性能(GAP)评级和一组基于二元泊松模型的评级,称为二元攻击(BA)评级。研究表明,这两种方法都为提前预测比赛统计数据提供了合适的方法,而且它们的信息量足够大,可以提供超出赔率反映的信息。当预测与两种投注策略相结合时,就会显示出长期而强劲的赌博利润。
{"title":"Forecasting football matches by predicting match statistics","authors":"E. Wheatcroft","doi":"10.3233/JSA-200462","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3233/JSA-200462","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers the use of observed and predicted match statistics as inputs to forecasts for the outcomes of football matches. It is shown that, were it possible to know the match statistics in advance, highly informative forecasts of the match outcome could be made. Whilst, in practice, match statistics are clearly never available prior to the match, this leads to a simple philosophy. If match statistics can be predicted pre-match, and if those predictions are accurate enough, it follows that informative match forecasts can be made. Two approaches to the prediction of match statistics are demonstrated: Generalised Attacking Performance (GAP) ratings and a set of ratings based on the Bivariate Poisson model which are named Bivariate Attacking (BA) ratings. It is shown that both approaches provide a suitable methodology for predicting match statistics in advance and that they are informative enough to provide information beyond that reflected in the odds. A long term and robust gambling profit is demonstrated when the forecasts are combined with two betting strategies.","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2020-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3233/JSA-200462","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48234473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Evaluating one-shot tournament predictions 评估一次比赛预测
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2019-12-06 DOI: 10.3233/jsa-200454
C. Ekstrøm, Hans Van Eetvelde, Christophe Ley, Ulf Brefeld
We introduce the Tournament Rank Probability Score (TRPS) as a measure to evaluate and compare pre-tournament predictions, where predictions of the full tournament results are required to be available before the tournament begins. The TRPS handles partial ranking of teams, gives credit to predictions that are only slightly wrong, and can be modified with weights to stress the importance of particular features of the tournament prediction. Thus, the Tournament Rank Prediction Score is more flexible than the commonly preferred log loss score for such tasks. In addition, we show how predictions from historic tournaments can be optimally combined into ensemble predictions in order to maximize the TRPS for a new tournament.
我们引入了锦标赛排名概率得分(TRPS),作为评估和比较赛前预测的一种衡量标准,其中要求在锦标赛开始前提供完整锦标赛结果的预测。TRPS处理球队的部分排名,对只有轻微错误的预测给予赞扬,并可以使用权重进行修改,以强调锦标赛预测特定特征的重要性。因此,锦标赛排名预测分数比用于此类任务的通常优选的日志丢失分数更灵活。此外,我们还展示了如何将历史锦标赛的预测最佳地组合到集合预测中,以最大限度地提高新锦标赛的TRPS。
{"title":"Evaluating one-shot tournament predictions","authors":"C. Ekstrøm, Hans Van Eetvelde, Christophe Ley, Ulf Brefeld","doi":"10.3233/jsa-200454","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3233/jsa-200454","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce the Tournament Rank Probability Score (TRPS) as a measure to evaluate and compare pre-tournament predictions, where predictions of the full tournament results are required to be available before the tournament begins. The TRPS handles partial ranking of teams, gives credit to predictions that are only slightly wrong, and can be modified with weights to stress the importance of particular features of the tournament prediction. Thus, the Tournament Rank Prediction Score is more flexible than the commonly preferred log loss score for such tasks. In addition, we show how predictions from historic tournaments can be optimally combined into ensemble predictions in order to maximize the TRPS for a new tournament.","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3233/jsa-200454","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44336510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Home sweet home: Quantifying home court advantages for NCAA basketball statistics 主场甜蜜主场:NCAA篮球统计数据的主场优势量化
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2019-09-11 DOI: 10.3233/JSA-200450
M. V. Bommel, L. Bornn, Peter A. Chow-White, Chuancong Gao
Box score statistics are the baseline measures of performance for National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) basketball. Between the 2011-2012 and 2015-2016 seasons, NCAA teams performed better at home compared to on the road in nearly all box score statistics across both genders and all three divisions. Using box score data from over 100,000 games spanning the three divisions for both women and men, we examine the factors underlying this discrepancy. The prevalence of neutral location games in the NCAA provides an additional angle through which to examine the gaps in box score statistic performance, which we believe has been underutilized in existing literature. We also estimate a regression model to quantify the home court advantages for box score statistics after controlling for other factors such as number of possessions, and team strength. Additionally, we examine the biases of scorekeepers and referees. We present evidence that scorekeepers tend to have greater home team biases when observing men compared to women, higher divisions compared to lower divisions, and stronger teams compared to weaker teams. Finally, we present statistically significant results indicating referee decisions are impacted by attendance, with larger crowds resulting in greater bias in favor of the home team.
框得分统计数据是衡量美国大学生体育协会(NCAA)篮球表现的基线指标。2011-2012赛季至2015-2016赛季,在几乎所有性别和所有三个赛区的得分统计数据中,NCAA球队在主场的表现都优于在客场的表现。使用来自三个赛区超过100000场比赛的女性和男性的得分数据,我们研究了造成这种差异的因素。中立位置游戏在NCAA中的普遍性提供了一个额外的角度,通过这个角度来检查盒子得分统计性能的差距,我们认为现有文献中没有充分利用这一点。在控制了其他因素(如控球次数和球队实力)后,我们还估计了一个回归模型,以量化主场优势,用于得分统计。此外,我们还考察了记分员和裁判的偏见。我们提供的证据表明,记分员在观察男性与女性、高级别与低级别、强队与弱队时,往往有更大的主队偏见。最后,我们给出了具有统计意义的结果,表明裁判的判罚受到上座率的影响,观众人数越多,对主队的偏见就越大。
{"title":"Home sweet home: Quantifying home court advantages for NCAA basketball statistics","authors":"M. V. Bommel, L. Bornn, Peter A. Chow-White, Chuancong Gao","doi":"10.3233/JSA-200450","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3233/JSA-200450","url":null,"abstract":"Box score statistics are the baseline measures of performance for National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) basketball. Between the 2011-2012 and 2015-2016 seasons, NCAA teams performed better at home compared to on the road in nearly all box score statistics across both genders and all three divisions. Using box score data from over 100,000 games spanning the three divisions for both women and men, we examine the factors underlying this discrepancy. The prevalence of neutral location games in the NCAA provides an additional angle through which to examine the gaps in box score statistic performance, which we believe has been underutilized in existing literature. We also estimate a regression model to quantify the home court advantages for box score statistics after controlling for other factors such as number of possessions, and team strength. Additionally, we examine the biases of scorekeepers and referees. We present evidence that scorekeepers tend to have greater home team biases when observing men compared to women, higher divisions compared to lower divisions, and stronger teams compared to weaker teams. Finally, we present statistically significant results indicating referee decisions are impacted by attendance, with larger crowds resulting in greater bias in favor of the home team.","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3233/JSA-200450","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44784105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Using in-game shot trajectories to better understand defensive impact in the NBA 使用游戏中的投篮轨迹来更好地理解NBA的防守影响
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2019-05-02 DOI: 10.3233/jsa-200400
L. Bornn, D. Daly-Grafstein
As 3-point shooting in the NBA continues to increase, the importance of perimeter defense has never been greater. Perimeter defenders are often evaluated by their ability to tightly contest shots, but how exactly does contesting a jump shot cause a decrease in expected shooting percentage, and can we use this insight to better assess perimeter defender ability? In this paper we analyze over 50,000 shot trajectories from the NBA to explain why, in terms of impact on shot trajectories, shooters tend to miss more when tightly contested. We present a variety of results derived from this shot trajectory data. Additionally, pairing trajectory data with features such as defender height, distance, and contest angle, we are able to evaluate not just perimeter defenders, but also shooters’ resilience to defensive pressure. Utilizing shot trajectories and corresponding modeled shot-make probabilities, we are able to create perimeter defensive metrics that are more accurate and less variable than traditional metrics like opponent field goal percentage.
随着NBA三分球的不断增加,外围防守的重要性从未如此之大。外线防守者通常是通过他们紧密的争投能力来评估他们的,但是争跳投到底是如何导致预期命中率下降的,我们能不能用这个观点来更好地评估外线防守者的能力?在本文中,我们分析了来自NBA的超过50,000个投篮轨迹,以解释为什么在投篮轨迹的影响方面,射手在激烈的竞争中往往会错过更多。我们提出了从这些射击轨迹数据中得出的各种结果。此外,将轨迹数据与防守者的身高、距离和比赛角度等特征相结合,我们不仅可以评估外线防守者,还可以评估射手对防守压力的适应能力。利用投篮轨迹和相应的投篮概率模型,我们能够创建比对手投篮命中率等传统指标更准确、更少变化的外线防守指标。
{"title":"Using in-game shot trajectories to better understand defensive impact in the NBA","authors":"L. Bornn, D. Daly-Grafstein","doi":"10.3233/jsa-200400","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3233/jsa-200400","url":null,"abstract":"As 3-point shooting in the NBA continues to increase, the importance of perimeter defense has never been greater. Perimeter defenders are often evaluated by their ability to tightly contest shots, but how exactly does contesting a jump shot cause a decrease in expected shooting percentage, and can we use this insight to better assess perimeter defender ability? In this paper we analyze over 50,000 shot trajectories from the NBA to explain why, in terms of impact on shot trajectories, shooters tend to miss more when tightly contested. We present a variety of results derived from this shot trajectory data. Additionally, pairing trajectory data with features such as defender height, distance, and contest angle, we are able to evaluate not just perimeter defenders, but also shooters’ resilience to defensive pressure. Utilizing shot trajectories and corresponding modeled shot-make probabilities, we are able to create perimeter defensive metrics that are more accurate and less variable than traditional metrics like opponent field goal percentage.","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3233/jsa-200400","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41900238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Predicting golf scores at the shot level 在击球水平上预测高尔夫球得分
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2019-04-25 DOI: 10.3233/JSA-170273
Christian Drappi, Lance Co Ting Keh
. We present the only model to date that predicts the discrete probability distribution of a golfer’s score for each hole of a tournament on a shot-by-shot basis. We first generalized Broadie’s technique of score-based skill estimation to allow a golfer’s skill (e.g. scoring average, driving spray, iron play, putting) to vary continuously by time-weighting data with exponential decay. Training a single-layer 50-node neural network to predict probabilities of scoring by hole resulted in an out-of-sample cross-entropy error of 0.974. We then added features of each hole (e.g. par, green size, sand area) onto the model, representing golfers and holes in an N-by-M dimensional space and achieved an error of 0.953. Adding in course features provided by ShotLink (e.g. fairway height, firmness, wind speed) dropped error to 0.9374. Finally, generalizing the model to update probabilities per shot further reduced error to 0.891. This work helps players understand which skill sets they should improve on, manage courses better (better to miss fairway right or left on hole 13 of Bethpage Black?) and select the best tournament to enter. It also revolutionizes the viewing experience of the PGA by live updating odds to win per shot (similar to WSOP) and helps sports books offer more accurate betting lines.
我们提出了迄今为止唯一的一个模型,该模型预测了高尔夫球手在锦标赛中每个洞的得分在逐个击球的基础上的离散概率分布。我们首先推广了broaddie的基于分数的技能估计技术,允许高尔夫球手的技能(例如平均得分、击球、击球、推杆)通过指数衰减的时间加权数据连续变化。训练一个单层50节点的神经网络来预测孔得分概率,得到的样本外交叉熵误差为0.974。然后,我们将每个洞的特征(如标准杆、果岭大小、沙面积)添加到模型中,在n × m的维度空间中表示高尔夫球手和洞,得到了0.953的误差。加上ShotLink提供的球场特征(如球道高度、坚固度、风速),误差降至0.9374。最后,将模型一般化以更新每次射击的概率,进一步将误差降低到0.891。这项工作可以帮助球员了解他们需要提高哪些技能,更好地管理球场(在贝斯佩奇黑球场13号洞错过右侧或左侧球道会更好吗?),并选择参加最好的比赛。它还通过实时更新每杆获胜的赔率(类似于WSOP)彻底改变了PGA的观看体验,并帮助体育博彩提供更准确的数据
{"title":"Predicting golf scores at the shot level","authors":"Christian Drappi, Lance Co Ting Keh","doi":"10.3233/JSA-170273","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3233/JSA-170273","url":null,"abstract":". We present the only model to date that predicts the discrete probability distribution of a golfer’s score for each hole of a tournament on a shot-by-shot basis. We first generalized Broadie’s technique of score-based skill estimation to allow a golfer’s skill (e.g. scoring average, driving spray, iron play, putting) to vary continuously by time-weighting data with exponential decay. Training a single-layer 50-node neural network to predict probabilities of scoring by hole resulted in an out-of-sample cross-entropy error of 0.974. We then added features of each hole (e.g. par, green size, sand area) onto the model, representing golfers and holes in an N-by-M dimensional space and achieved an error of 0.953. Adding in course features provided by ShotLink (e.g. fairway height, firmness, wind speed) dropped error to 0.9374. Finally, generalizing the model to update probabilities per shot further reduced error to 0.891. This work helps players understand which skill sets they should improve on, manage courses better (better to miss fairway right or left on hole 13 of Bethpage Black?) and select the best tournament to enter. It also revolutionizes the viewing experience of the PGA by live updating odds to win per shot (similar to WSOP) and helps sports books offer more accurate betting lines.","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3233/JSA-170273","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70124335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Misadventures in Monte Carlo 蒙特卡洛的冒险
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.3233/JSA-170220
Richard Demsyn-Jones
Estimating probability is the very core of forecasting. Increasing computing power has enabled researchers to design highly intractable probability models, such that model results are identified through the Monte Carlo method of repeated stochastic simulation. However, confidence in the Monte Carlo identification of the model can be mistaken for accuracy in the underlying model itself. This paper describes simulations in a problem space of topical interest: basketball season forecasting. Monte Carlo simulations are widely used in sports forecasting, since the multitude of possibilities makes direct calculation of playoff probabilities infeasible. Error correlation across games requires due care, as demonstrated with a realistic multilevel basketball model, similar to some in use today. The model is built separately for each of 20 NBA seasons, modeling team strength as a composition of player strength and player allocation of minutes, while also incorporating team persistent effects. Each season is evaluated out-of-time, collectively demonstrating systematic and substantial overconfidence in playoff probabilities, which can be eliminated by incorporating error correlation. This paper focuses on clarifying the use of Monte Carlo simulations for probability calculations in sports.
概率估计是预测的核心。不断提高的计算能力使研究人员能够设计高度难处理的概率模型,从而通过重复随机模拟的蒙特卡罗方法来识别模型结果。然而,对模型的蒙特卡罗识别的信心可能被误认为是基础模型本身的准确性。本文描述了一个备受关注的问题空间的模拟:篮球赛季预测。蒙特卡罗模拟被广泛应用于体育预测,因为大量的可能性使得直接计算季后赛的概率是不可能的。游戏间的误差相关性需要适当的注意,正如现实的多层次篮球模型所展示的那样,类似于今天使用的一些模型。该模型是针对20个NBA赛季分别建立的,将球队实力建模为球员实力和球员上场时间分配的组合,同时也考虑了球队的持续效应。每个赛季的评估都是在时间之外进行的,总体上表明了对季后赛概率的系统性和实质性的过度自信,这可以通过结合误差相关性来消除。本文的重点是澄清蒙特卡罗模拟在体育运动中的概率计算的使用。
{"title":"Misadventures in Monte Carlo","authors":"Richard Demsyn-Jones","doi":"10.3233/JSA-170220","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3233/JSA-170220","url":null,"abstract":"Estimating probability is the very core of forecasting. Increasing computing power has enabled researchers to design highly intractable probability models, such that model results are identified through the Monte Carlo method of repeated stochastic simulation. However, confidence in the Monte Carlo identification of the model can be mistaken for accuracy in the underlying model itself. This paper describes simulations in a problem space of topical interest: basketball season forecasting. Monte Carlo simulations are widely used in sports forecasting, since the multitude of possibilities makes direct calculation of playoff probabilities infeasible. Error correlation across games requires due care, as demonstrated with a realistic multilevel basketball model, similar to some in use today. The model is built separately for each of 20 NBA seasons, modeling team strength as a composition of player strength and player allocation of minutes, while also incorporating team persistent effects. Each season is evaluated out-of-time, collectively demonstrating systematic and substantial overconfidence in playoff probabilities, which can be eliminated by incorporating error correlation. This paper focuses on clarifying the use of Monte Carlo simulations for probability calculations in sports.","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3233/JSA-170220","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70124098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Net best-ball team composition in golf 高尔夫球的最佳球队组成
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.3233/JSA-190311
Yifan Wu, Peter Chow-Whiteand, T. Swartz
This paper proposes a simple method of forming two-player and four-player golf teams for the purposes of net best-ball tournaments in stroke play format. The proposal is based on the recognition that variability is an important consideration in team composition; highly variable players contribute greatly in a best-ball setting. A theoretical rationale is provided for the proposed team formation. In addition, simulation studies are carried out which compare the proposal against other common methods of team formation. In these studies, the proposed team composition leads to competitions that are more fair.
本文提出了一种简单的二人高尔夫球队和四人高尔夫球队的组建方法,用于击球制的网最佳球比赛。该建议是基于认识到可变性是团队组成中的一个重要考虑因素;高度可变的球员在最佳球设置中贡献很大。为建议的团队组成提供了理论依据。此外,还进行了仿真研究,将该建议与其他常见的团队组建方法进行了比较。在这些研究中,提议的团队组成导致比赛更加公平。
{"title":"Net best-ball team composition in golf","authors":"Yifan Wu, Peter Chow-Whiteand, T. Swartz","doi":"10.3233/JSA-190311","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3233/JSA-190311","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a simple method of forming two-player and four-player golf teams for the purposes of net best-ball tournaments in stroke play format. The proposal is based on the recognition that variability is an important consideration in team composition; highly variable players contribute greatly in a best-ball setting. A theoretical rationale is provided for the proposed team formation. In addition, simulation studies are carried out which compare the proposal against other common methods of team formation. In these studies, the proposed team composition leads to competitions that are more fair.","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3233/JSA-190311","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70124845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Empirical study on relationship between sports analytics and success in regular season and postseason in Major League Baseball 美国职业棒球大联盟常规赛和季后赛成绩与体育分析关系的实证研究
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.3233/JSA-190269
D. Chu, C. W. Wang
In this paper, we study the relationship between sports analytics and success in regular season and postseason in Major League Baseball via the empirical data of 2014-2017. The categories of analytics belief, the number of analytics staff, and the total number of research staff employed by MLB teams are examined. Conditional probabilities, correlations, and various regression models are used to analyze the data. It is shown that the use of sports analytics might have some positive impact on the success of teams in the regular season, but not in the postseason. After taking into account the team payroll, we apply partial correlations and partial F tests to analyze the data again. It is found that the use of sports analytics, with team payroll already in the regression model, might still be a good indicator of success in the regular season, but not in the postseason. Moreover, it is shown that both the team payroll and the use of sports analytics are not good indicators of success in the postseason. The predictive modeling of decision trees is also developed, under different kinds of input and target variables, to classify MLB teams into no playoffs or playoffs. It is interesting to note that 87 wins (or 0.537 winning percentage) in a regular season may well be the threshold of advancing into the postseason.
本文通过2014-2017年的实证数据,研究了体育分析与美国职业棒球大联盟常规赛和季后赛成功之间的关系。分析信念的类别,分析人员的数量,以及MLB球队雇用的研究人员总数进行了检查。使用条件概率、相关性和各种回归模型来分析数据。研究表明,体育分析的使用可能会对球队在常规赛中的成功产生一些积极的影响,但在季后赛中则不然。在考虑了团队工资之后,我们应用部分相关性和部分F测试来再次分析数据。研究发现,使用体育分析,球队工资已经在回归模型中,可能仍然是一个很好的指标,在常规赛的成功,但不是在季后赛。此外,研究表明,球队工资和体育分析的使用都不是季后赛成功的良好指标。建立了决策树的预测模型,在不同类型的输入变量和目标变量下,将MLB球队划分为无季后赛和季后赛。值得注意的是,常规赛87胜(胜率0.537)很可能是进入季后赛的门槛。
{"title":"Empirical study on relationship between sports analytics and success in regular season and postseason in Major League Baseball","authors":"D. Chu, C. W. Wang","doi":"10.3233/JSA-190269","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3233/JSA-190269","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we study the relationship between sports analytics and success in regular season and postseason in Major League Baseball via the empirical data of 2014-2017. The categories of analytics belief, the number of analytics staff, and the total number of research staff employed by MLB teams are examined. Conditional probabilities, correlations, and various regression models are used to analyze the data. It is shown that the use of sports analytics might have some positive impact on the success of teams in the regular season, but not in the postseason. After taking into account the team payroll, we apply partial correlations and partial F tests to analyze the data again. It is found that the use of sports analytics, with team payroll already in the regression model, might still be a good indicator of success in the regular season, but not in the postseason. Moreover, it is shown that both the team payroll and the use of sports analytics are not good indicators of success in the postseason. The predictive modeling of decision trees is also developed, under different kinds of input and target variables, to classify MLB teams into no playoffs or playoffs. It is interesting to note that 87 wins (or 0.537 winning percentage) in a regular season may well be the threshold of advancing into the postseason.","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3233/JSA-190269","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70124667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The nature of regional bias in Heisman voting 海斯曼投票中地区偏见的本质
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.3233/JSA-180284
Nolan Kopkin
This study explores regional bias in Heisman voting from 1990–2016 using a negative binomial regression model with player-year fixed effects. Analysis confirms finalists receive higher vote tallies in home regions, on average. Additionally, results show regional vote tallies are decreasing in the fraction of other finalists in-region. Furthermore, evidence reveals finalists receive higher vote tallies for each game played against in-region teams and lower vote tallies for each game played by other finalists against in-region teams. Analysis is augmented by showing the recent increase in national television coverage of college football has been accompanied by a decline in regional bias. 5
本研究采用具有球员年固定效应的负二项回归模型,探讨了1990-2016年海斯曼投票中的地区偏见。分析证实,入围者在各自地区的平均得票率更高。此外,结果显示,地区票数在该地区其他决赛选手中所占的比例正在下降。此外,有证据表明,决赛入围者在与区域内球队的比赛中获得更高的得票,而其他决赛入围者在与区域内球队的比赛中获得更低的得票。分析还显示,最近全国电视对大学橄榄球的报道有所增加,同时地区偏见也有所减少。5
{"title":"The nature of regional bias in Heisman voting","authors":"Nolan Kopkin","doi":"10.3233/JSA-180284","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3233/JSA-180284","url":null,"abstract":"This study explores regional bias in Heisman voting from 1990–2016 using a negative binomial regression model with player-year fixed effects. Analysis confirms finalists receive higher vote tallies in home regions, on average. Additionally, results show regional vote tallies are decreasing in the fraction of other finalists in-region. Furthermore, evidence reveals finalists receive higher vote tallies for each game played against in-region teams and lower vote tallies for each game played by other finalists against in-region teams. Analysis is augmented by showing the recent increase in national television coverage of college football has been accompanied by a decline in regional bias. 5","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3233/JSA-180284","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70124795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
期刊
Journal of Sports Analytics
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1