Less than 2 years ago, many small entrepreneurs in the commodities trading business faced price volatility, which had not been the case for the last few decades. Generally, the income section of the profit and loss statement was not the main problem, especially in building material commodities trading, due to the recent growth in real estate demand. Logistic disorders, raw material shortages, inflation, and interest rate growth caused difficulties in supply management and warehouse balancing, which were reflected in a particular significant expense called the cost of goods sold. The real problem of its forecasting was identified, and data from accounting books likely contain information about previous warehouse dynamics. This paper presents how accounting data are prepared and shaped into time series suitable for machine learning algorithms, the relevant literature that helped in algorithm selection, and the development and description of the forecasting model, as well as its benchmarking with traditional forecasting models. Visualization and mean squared error loss measured on unseen data show that the model has proven more successful than expected. Based on data from four journal accounts spanning over 14 years, the model predicts the debit and credit sides of the wholesale warehouse for 150 working days.
{"title":"Accounting journal entries as a long-term multivariate time series: Forecasting wholesale warehouse output","authors":"Mario Zupan","doi":"10.1002/isaf.1551","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/isaf.1551","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Less than 2 years ago, many small entrepreneurs in the commodities trading business faced price volatility, which had not been the case for the last few decades. Generally, the income section of the profit and loss statement was not the main problem, especially in building material commodities trading, due to the recent growth in real estate demand. Logistic disorders, raw material shortages, inflation, and interest rate growth caused difficulties in supply management and warehouse balancing, which were reflected in a particular significant expense called the cost of goods sold. The real problem of its forecasting was identified, and data from accounting books likely contain information about previous warehouse dynamics. This paper presents how accounting data are prepared and shaped into time series suitable for machine learning algorithms, the relevant literature that helped in algorithm selection, and the development and description of the forecasting model, as well as its benchmarking with traditional forecasting models. Visualization and mean squared error loss measured on unseen data show that the model has proven more successful than expected. Based on data from four journal accounts spanning over 14 years, the model predicts the debit and credit sides of the wholesale warehouse for 150 working days.</p>","PeriodicalId":53473,"journal":{"name":"Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140096686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Advances in Deep Learning have drastically improved the abilities of Natural Language Processing (NLP) research, creating new state-of-the-art benchmarks. Two research streams at the forefront of NLP analysis are transformer architecture and multimodal analysis. This paper critically evaluates the extant literature applying sentiment analysis techniques to the financial domain. We classify the financial sentiment analysis literature according to the most used techniques in the area, with a focus on methods used to detect sentiment within corporate earnings conference calls, because of their dual modality (text-audio) nature. We find that the financial literature follows a similar path to NLP sentiment literature, in that more advanced techniques to define sentiment are being used as the field progresses. However, techniques used to determine financial sentiment currently fall behind state-of-the-art techniques used within NLP. Two future directions stem from this paper. Firstly, we propose that the adoption of transformer architecture to create robust representations of textual data could enhance sentiment analysis in academic finance. Secondly, the adoption of multimodal classifiers in finance represents a new, currently underexplored area of study that offers opportunities for finance research.
{"title":"Text-based sentiment analysis in finance: Synthesising the existing literature and exploring future directions","authors":"Andrew Todd, James Bowden, Yashar Moshfeghi","doi":"10.1002/isaf.1549","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/isaf.1549","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Advances in Deep Learning have drastically improved the abilities of Natural Language Processing (NLP) research, creating new state-of-the-art benchmarks. Two research streams at the forefront of NLP analysis are transformer architecture and multimodal analysis. This paper critically evaluates the extant literature applying sentiment analysis techniques to the financial domain. We classify the financial sentiment analysis literature according to the most used techniques in the area, with a focus on methods used to detect sentiment within corporate earnings conference calls, because of their dual modality (text-audio) nature. We find that the financial literature follows a similar path to NLP sentiment literature, in that more advanced techniques to define sentiment are being used as the field progresses. However, techniques used to determine financial sentiment currently fall behind state-of-the-art techniques used within NLP. Two future directions stem from this paper. Firstly, we propose that the adoption of transformer architecture to create robust representations of textual data could enhance sentiment analysis in academic finance. Secondly, the adoption of multimodal classifiers in finance represents a new, currently underexplored area of study that offers opportunities for finance research.</p>","PeriodicalId":53473,"journal":{"name":"Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/isaf.1549","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139976454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In 2022, global startup investments exceeded US$445 billion, sourced from entities like venture capital (VC) funds, angel investors, and equity crowdfunding. Despite their role in driving innovation, startup investments often fall short of S&P 500 returns. Surprisingly, the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) remains untapped by investors, despite AI's growing sway in financial decision-making. Our empirical analysis predicts the success of 10,000 Israeli startups, utilizing diverse machine learning models. Unlike prior research, we employ the MetaCost algorithm to convert models into cost-sensitive variants, minimizing total cost instead of total error. This innovative approach enables varied costs linked to different prediction errors. Our results underscore that these cost-sensitive machine learning models significantly reduce risk for VC funds and startup investors compared to traditional ones. Furthermore, these models provide investors with a distinct capability to tailor their risk profiles, aligning predictions with their risk appetite. However, while cost-sensitive machine learning reduces risk, it may limit potential gains by predicting fewer successful startups. To address this, we propose methods to enhance successful startup identification, including aggregating outcomes from multiple MetaCost models, particularly advantageous for smaller deal flows. Our research advances AI's role in startup investing, presenting a pivotal tool for investors navigating this domain.
{"title":"Cost-sensitive machine learning to support startup investment decisions","authors":"Ronald Setty, Yuval Elovici, Dafna Schwartz","doi":"10.1002/isaf.1548","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/isaf.1548","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In 2022, global startup investments exceeded US$445 billion, sourced from entities like venture capital (VC) funds, angel investors, and equity crowdfunding. Despite their role in driving innovation, startup investments often fall short of S&P 500 returns. Surprisingly, the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) remains untapped by investors, despite AI's growing sway in financial decision-making. Our empirical analysis predicts the success of 10,000 Israeli startups, utilizing diverse machine learning models. Unlike prior research, we employ the MetaCost algorithm to convert models into cost-sensitive variants, minimizing total cost instead of total error. This innovative approach enables varied costs linked to different prediction errors. Our results underscore that these cost-sensitive machine learning models significantly reduce risk for VC funds and startup investors compared to traditional ones. Furthermore, these models provide investors with a distinct capability to tailor their risk profiles, aligning predictions with their risk appetite. However, while cost-sensitive machine learning reduces risk, it may limit potential gains by predicting fewer successful startups. To address this, we propose methods to enhance successful startup identification, including aggregating outcomes from multiple MetaCost models, particularly advantageous for smaller deal flows. Our research advances AI's role in startup investing, presenting a pivotal tool for investors navigating this domain.</p>","PeriodicalId":53473,"journal":{"name":"Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/isaf.1548","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139732302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
There has been substantial discussion aimed at investigating the extent to which academic researchers can or should “use” large language models, such as ChatGPT and Bard, in their research papers. However, there seems to have been limited attention given to the extent to which students can use these tools for the development of theses, proposals and dissertations. This paper pushes the arguments from focusing on academic researchers, journal papers, and technical meetings to considering those theses and dissertations, raising several questions and concerns. Ultimately, university policies need to address these issues, but if publisher and editor responses and alternative business uses are a signal of that direction, consensus may be difficult to achieve.
{"title":"Using large language models to write theses and dissertations","authors":"Daniel E. O'Leary","doi":"10.1002/isaf.1547","DOIUrl":"10.1002/isaf.1547","url":null,"abstract":"<p>There has been substantial discussion aimed at investigating the extent to which academic researchers can or should “use” large language models, such as ChatGPT and Bard, in their research papers. However, there seems to have been limited attention given to the extent to which students can use these tools for the development of theses, proposals and dissertations. This paper pushes the arguments from focusing on academic researchers, journal papers, and technical meetings to considering those theses and dissertations, raising several questions and concerns. Ultimately, university policies need to address these issues, but if publisher and editor responses and alternative business uses are a signal of that direction, consensus may be difficult to achieve.</p>","PeriodicalId":53473,"journal":{"name":"Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management","volume":"30 4","pages":"228-234"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/isaf.1547","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138822612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}