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Data-driven optimization of peer-to-peer lending portfolios based on the expected value framework 基于期望值框架的点对点贷款组合数据驱动优化
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-03-17 DOI: 10.1002/isaf.1490
Ajay Byanjankar, József Mezei, Markku Heikkilä

In recent years, peer-to-peer (P2P) lending has been gaining popularity amongst borrowers and individual investors. This can mainly be attributed to the easy and quick access to loans and the higher possible returns. However, the risk involved in these investments is considerable, and for most investors, being nonprofessionals, this increases the complexity and the importance of investment decisions. In this study, we focus on generating optimal investment decisions to lenders for selecting loans. We treat the loan selection process in P2P lending as a portfolio optimization problem, with the aim being to select a set of loans that provide a required return while minimizing risk. In the process, we use internal rate of return as the measure of return. As the starting point of the model, we use machine-learning algorithms to predict the default probabilities and calculate expected values for the loans based on historical data. Afterwards, we calculate the distance between loans using (i) default probabilities and, as a novel step, (ii) expected value. In the calculations, we utilize kernel functions to obtain similarity weights of loans as the input of the optimization models. Two optimization models are tested and compared on data from the popular P2P platform Lending Club. The results show that using the expected-value framework yields higher return.

近年来,点对点(P2P)借贷在借款人和个人投资者中越来越受欢迎。这主要归因于贷款的便捷和更高的可能回报。然而,这些投资所涉及的风险是相当大的,对于大多数非专业投资者来说,这增加了投资决策的复杂性和重要性。在这项研究中,我们的重点是产生最优的投资决策,贷款人选择贷款。我们将P2P借贷中的贷款选择过程视为投资组合优化问题,其目的是选择一组提供所需回报的贷款,同时将风险最小化。在这个过程中,我们使用内部收益率作为回报的度量。作为模型的起点,我们使用机器学习算法来预测违约概率,并根据历史数据计算贷款的期望值。之后,我们使用(i)违约概率和(ii)期望值计算贷款之间的距离,作为一个新的步骤。在计算中,我们利用核函数获得贷款的相似度权重作为优化模型的输入。两种优化模型在P2P平台Lending Club的数据上进行了测试和比较。结果表明,使用期望值框架可以获得更高的收益。
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引用次数: 4
Forecasting volatility of crude oil futures using a GARCH–RNN hybrid approach GARCH-RNN混合方法预测原油期货波动率
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-03-11 DOI: 10.1002/isaf.1489
Sauraj Verma

Volatility is an important element for various financial instruments owing to its ability to measure the risk and reward value of a given financial asset. Owing to its importance, forecasting volatility has become a critical task in financial forecasting. In this paper, we propose a suite of hybrid models for forecasting volatility of crude oil under different forecasting horizons. Specifically, we combine the parameters of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and Glosten–Jagannathan–Runkle (GJR)-GARCH with long short-term memory (LSTM) to create three new forecasting models named GARCH–LSTM, GJR-LSTM, and GARCH-GJRGARCH LSTM in order to forecast crude oil volatility of West Texas Intermediate on different forecasting horizons and compare their performance with the classical volatility forecasting models. Specifically, we compare the performances against existing methodologies of forecasting volatility such as GARCH and found that the proposed hybrid models improve upon the forecasting accuracy of Crude Oil: West Texas Intermediate under various forecasting horizons and perform better than GARCH and GJR-GARCH, with GG–LSTM performing the best of the three proposed models at 7-, 14-, and 21-day-ahead forecasts in terms of heteroscedasticity-adjusted mean square error and heteroscedasticity-adjusted mean absolute error, with significance testing conducted through the model confidence set showing that GG–LSTM is a strong contender for forecasting crude oil volatility under different forecasting regimes and rolling-window schemes. The contribution of the paper is that it enhances the forecasting ability of crude oil futures volatility, which is essential for trading, hedging, and purposes of arbitrage, and that the proposed model dwells upon existing literature and enhances the forecasting accuracy of crude oil volatility by fusing a neural network model with multiple econometric models.

波动率是各种金融工具的重要因素,因为它能够衡量给定金融资产的风险和回报价值。由于波动性预测的重要性,它已成为财务预测中的一项关键任务。本文提出了一套混合预测模型,用于不同预测范围下原油波动率的预测。具体而言,我们将广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)和glosten - jagannahan - runkle (GJR)-GARCH与长短期记忆(LSTM)相结合,建立了GARCH- LSTM、GJR-LSTM和GARCH- gjrgarch LSTM三个新的预测模型,在不同的预测水平上预测西德克萨斯中质原油的波动率,并与经典波动率预测模型进行了比较。具体而言,我们将其与GARCH等现有预测波动率的方法进行了比较,发现所提出的混合模型提高了原油的预测精度:西德克萨斯中质油在不同预测水平下的表现优于GARCH和GJR-GARCH,其中GG-LSTM模型在7天、14天和21天预报时的异方差调整均方误差和异方差调整平均绝对误差表现最好。通过模型置信度集进行的显著性检验表明,GG-LSTM在不同预测制度和滚动窗口方案下预测原油波动率是一个强有力的竞争者。本文的贡献在于提高了原油期货波动率的预测能力,这对于交易、套期保值和套利是必不可少的,并且所提出的模型借鉴了现有文献,通过将神经网络模型与多个计量模型融合,提高了原油波动率的预测精度。
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引用次数: 16
Journal entry anomaly detection model 日记账异常检测模型
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-12-22 DOI: 10.1002/isaf.1485
Mario Zupan, Verica Budimir, Svjetlana Letinic

Although numerous scientific papers have been written on deep learning, very few have been written on the exploitation of such technology in the field of accounting or bookkeeping. Our scientific study is oriented exactly toward this specific field. As accountants, we know the problems faced in modern accounting. Although accountants may have a plethora of information regarding technology support, looking for errors or fraud is a demanding and time-consuming task that depends on manual skills and professional knowledge. Our efforts are oriented toward resolving the problem of error-detection automation that is currently possible through new technologies, and we are trying to develop a web application that will alleviate the problems of journal entry anomaly detection. Our developed application accepts data from one specific enterprise resource planning system while also representing a general software framework for other enterprise resource planning developers. Our web application is a prototype that uses two of the most popular deep-learning architectures; namely, a variational autoencoder and long short-term memory. The application was tested on two different journals: data set D, learned on accounting journals from 2007 to 2018 and then tested during the year 2019, and data set H, learned on journals from 2014 to 2016 and then tested during the year 2017. Both accounting journals were generated by micro entrepreneurs.

尽管有许多关于深度学习的科学论文,但很少有关于在会计或簿记领域利用这种技术的论文。我们的科学研究正是针对这一特定领域。作为会计,我们知道现代会计面临的问题。尽管会计师可能有大量关于技术支持的信息,但查找错误或欺诈是一项要求高且耗时的任务,这取决于手工技能和专业知识。我们的努力是为了解决错误检测自动化的问题,这是目前可能通过新技术实现的,我们正在尝试开发一个web应用程序,以减轻日志条目异常检测的问题。我们开发的应用程序接受来自特定企业资源规划系统的数据,同时也为其他企业资源规划开发人员提供了一个通用的软件框架。我们的web应用程序是一个原型,它使用了两种最流行的深度学习架构;即变分自编码器和长短期记忆。该应用程序在两个不同的期刊上进行了测试:数据集D是在2007年至2018年的会计期刊上学习的,然后在2019年进行了测试;数据集H是在2014年至2016年的期刊上学习的,然后在2017年进行了测试。这两份会计期刊都是由微型企业家创办的。
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引用次数: 5
Modelling unbalanced catastrophic health expenditure data by using machine-learning methods 利用机器学习方法对不平衡的灾难性医疗支出数据进行建模
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1002/isaf.1483
Songul Cinaroglu

This study aims to compare the performances of logistic regression and random forest classifiers in a balanced oversampling procedure for the prediction of households that will face catastrophic out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditure. Data were derived from the nationally representative household budget survey collected by the Turkish Statistical Institute for the year 2012. A total of 9,987 households returned valid surveys. The data set was highly imbalanced, and the percentage of households facing catastrophic OOP health expenditure was 0.14. Balanced oversampling was performed, and 30 artificial data sets were generated with sizes of 5% and 98% of the original data size. The balanced oversampled data set provided accurate predictions, and random forest exhibited superior performance in identifying households facing catastrophic OOP health expenditure (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC = 0.8765; classification accuracy, CA = 0.7936; sensitivity = 0.7765; specificity = 0.8552; F1 = 0.7797).

本研究的目的是比较逻辑回归和随机森林分类器在平衡过抽样程序中的表现,以预测家庭将面临灾难性的自付医疗支出(OOP)。数据来自土耳其统计研究所收集的2012年全国代表性家庭预算调查。共有9987户住户返回有效问卷。数据集高度不平衡,面临灾难性OOP卫生支出的家庭比例为0.14%。进行平衡过采样,生成30个人工数据集,大小分别为原始数据大小的5%和98%。平衡过采样数据集提供了准确的预测,随机森林在识别面临灾难性OOP医疗支出的家庭方面表现出更优的性能(接收者工作特征曲线下面积,AUC = 0.8765;分类精度,CA = 0.7936;灵敏度= 0.7765;特异性= 0.8552;F1 = 0.7797)。
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引用次数: 4
A Google–Wikipedia–Twitter Model as a Leading Indicator of the Numbers of Coronavirus Deaths 谷歌-维基百科-推特模型作为冠状病毒死亡人数的领先指标
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-09-28 DOI: 10.1002/isaf.1482
Daniel E. O'Leary, Veda C. Storey

Forecasting the number of cases and the number of deaths in a pandemic provides critical information to governments and health officials, as seen in the management of the coronavirus outbreak. But things change. Thus, there is a constant search for real-time and leading indicator variables that can provide insights into disease propagation models. Researchers have found that information about social media and search engine use can provide insights into the diffusion of flu and other diseases. Consistent with this finding, we found that a model with the number of Google searches, Twitter tweets, and Wikipedia page views provides a leading indicator model of the number of people in the USA who will become infected and die from the coronavirus. Although we focus on the current coronavirus pandemic, other recent viruses have threatened pandemics (e.g. severe acute respiratory syndrome). Since future and existing diseases are likely to follow a similar search for information, our insights may prove fruitful in dealing with the coronavirus and other such diseases, particularly in the early phases of the disease.

Subject terms: coronavirus, COVID-19, unintentional crowd, Google searches, Wikipedia page views, Twitter tweets, models of disease diffusion.

预测大流行中的病例数和死亡人数为政府和卫生官员提供了关键信息,这在冠状病毒爆发的管理中可见一斑。但世事无常。因此,不断寻找实时和领先的指标变量,可以提供对疾病传播模型的见解。研究人员发现,有关社交媒体和搜索引擎使用的信息可以为流感和其他疾病的传播提供见解。与这一发现一致,我们发现,一个包含谷歌搜索次数、推特推文次数和维基百科页面浏览量的模型,提供了美国感染和死于冠状病毒的人数的领先指标模型。虽然我们的重点是当前的冠状病毒大流行,但最近其他病毒也有大流行的威胁(例如严重急性呼吸系统综合征)。由于未来和现有的疾病可能会遵循类似的信息搜索,因此我们的见解可能会在应对冠状病毒和其他此类疾病方面取得成果,特别是在疾病的早期阶段。主题术语:冠状病毒、COVID-19、无意人群、谷歌搜索、维基百科页面浏览量、推特推文、疾病传播模型。
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引用次数: 27
The digital future of internal staffing: A vision for transformational electronic human resource management 内部人员配置的数字化未来:转型电子人力资源管理的愿景
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-07-18 DOI: 10.1002/isaf.1481
Philip Rogiers, Stijn Viaene, Jan Leysen

Through an international Delphi study, this article explores the new electronic human resource management regimes that are expected to transform internal staffing. Our focus is on three types of information systems: human resource management systems, job portals, and talent marketplaces. We explore the future potential of these new systems and identify the key challenges for their implementation in governments, such as inadequate regulations and funding priorities, a lack of leadership and strategic vision, together with rigid work policies and practices and a change-resistant culture. Tied to this vision, we identify several areas of future inquiry that bridge the divide between theory and practice.

通过一项国际德尔菲研究,本文探讨了有望改变内部人员配置的新的电子人力资源管理制度。我们的重点是三类信息系统:人力资源管理系统、工作门户和人才市场。我们探索了这些新系统的未来潜力,并确定了在政府中实施这些系统的主要挑战,例如法规和资金优先次序不足,缺乏领导力和战略眼光,以及僵化的工作政策和实践以及抵制变革的文化。根据这一愿景,我们确定了未来探索的几个领域,这些领域弥合了理论与实践之间的鸿沟。
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引用次数: 6
A neural-network-based decision-making model in the peer-to-peer lending market 基于神经网络的p2p借贷市场决策模型
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-07-14 DOI: 10.1002/isaf.1480
Golnoosh Babaei, Shahrooz Bamdad

This study proposes an investment recommendation model for peer-to-peer (P2P) lending. P2P lenders usually are inexpert, so helping them to make the best decision for their investments is vital. In this study, while we aim to compare the performance of different artificial neural network (ANN) models, we evaluate loans from two perspectives: risk and return. The net present value (NPV) is considered as the return variable. To the best of our knowledge, NPV has been used in few studies in the P2P lending context. Considering the advantages of using NPV, we aim to improve decision-making models in this market by the use of NPV and the integration of supervised learning and optimization algorithms that can be considered as one of our contributions. In order to predict NPV, three ANN models are compared concerning mean square error, mean absolute error, and root-mean-square error to find the optimal ANN model. Furthermore, for the risk evaluation, the probability of default of loans is computed using logistic regression. Investors in the P2P lending market can share their assets between different loans, so the procedure of P2P investment is similar to portfolio optimization. In this context, we minimize the risk of a portfolio for a minimum acceptable level of return. To analyse the effectiveness of our proposed model, we compare our decision-making algorithm with the output of a traditional model. The experimental results on a real-world data set show that our model leads to a better investment concerning both risk and return.

本研究提出一个P2P借贷的投资推荐模型。P2P贷款人通常并不专业,因此帮助他们做出最佳投资决策至关重要。在本研究中,虽然我们的目的是比较不同的人工神经网络(ANN)模型的性能,但我们从风险和回报两个角度来评估贷款。净现值(NPV)被认为是回报变量。据我们所知,NPV在P2P借贷环境下的研究很少。考虑到使用NPV的优势,我们的目标是通过使用NPV以及监督学习和优化算法的集成来改进这个市场中的决策模型,这可以被认为是我们的贡献之一。为了预测NPV,比较了三种人工神经网络模型的均方误差、平均绝对误差和均方根误差,以寻找最优的人工神经网络模型。此外,对于风险评估,使用逻辑回归计算贷款违约概率。P2P借贷市场的投资者可以在不同的贷款之间共享资产,因此P2P投资的过程类似于投资组合优化。在这种情况下,我们将投资组合的风险最小化,以获得最低可接受的回报水平。为了分析我们提出的模型的有效性,我们将我们的决策算法与传统模型的输出进行了比较。在实际数据集上的实验结果表明,该模型在风险和收益两方面都具有较好的投资效果。
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引用次数: 12
Tick size and market quality: Simulations based on agent-based artificial stock markets 滴答大小和市场质量:基于基于代理的人工股票市场的模拟
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-06-21 DOI: 10.1002/isaf.1474
Xinhui Yang, Jie Zhang, Qing Ye

This paper investigates the way that minimum tick size affects market quality based on an agent-based artificial stock market. Our results indicate that stepwise and combination systems can promote market quality in certain aspects, compared with a uniform system. A minimal combination system performed the best to improve market quality. This is the first study to analyse tick size systems that remain at the theory stage and compare four types of system under the same experimental environment. The results suggests that a minimal combination system could be considered a new direction for market policy reform to improve market quality.

本文基于一个基于智能体的人工股票市场,研究了最小点位大小对市场质量的影响。研究结果表明,与单一制度相比,分级制度和组合制度在某些方面能提高市场质量。最小组合系统对提高市场质量的效果最好。这是第一个分析仍处于理论阶段的蜱虫大小系统的研究,并在相同的实验环境下比较了四种类型的系统。研究结果表明,最小组合制度可以作为提高市场质量的市场政策改革的新方向。
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引用次数: 4
RegTech—the application of modern information technology in regulatory affairs: areas of interest in research and practice 监管技术-现代信息技术在监管事务中的应用:研究和实践的兴趣领域
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-06-18 DOI: 10.1002/isaf.1479
Michael Becker, Kevin Merz, Rüdiger Buchkremer

We provide a high-level view on topics addressed in scientific articles about regulatory technology (RegTech), with a particular focus on technologies used. For this purpose, we first explore different denominations for RegTech and derive search queries to search relevant literature portals. From the hits of that information retrieval process, we select 55 articles outlining the application of information technology in regulatory affairs with an emphasis on the financial sector. In comparison, we examine the technological scope of 347 RegTech companies and compare our findings with the scientific literature. Our research reveals that ‘compliance management’ is the most relevant topic in practice, and ‘risk management’ is the primary subject in research. The most significant technologies as of today are ‘artificial intelligence’ and distributed ledger technologies such as ‘blockchain’.

我们提供了关于监管技术(RegTech)的科学文章中讨论的主题的高级视图,特别关注所使用的技术。为此,我们首先探索RegTech的不同名称,并派生搜索查询以搜索相关文献门户。从信息检索过程的点击中,我们选择了55篇文章,概述了信息技术在监管事务中的应用,重点是金融部门。作为比较,我们考察了347家RegTech公司的技术范围,并将我们的发现与科学文献进行了比较。我们的研究表明,“合规管理”是实践中最相关的主题,而“风险管理”是研究的主要主题。到目前为止,最重要的技术是“人工智能”和分布式账本技术,如“区块链”。
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引用次数: 13
Predicting credit card fraud with Sarbanes-Oxley assessments and Fama-French risk factors 用萨班斯-奥克斯利评估和法玛-弗伦奇风险因素预测信用卡欺诈
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-06-12 DOI: 10.1002/isaf.1472
James Christopher Westland

This research developed and tested machine learning models to predict significant credit card fraud in corporate systems using Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) reports, news reports of breaches and Fama-French risk factors (FF). Exploratory analysis found that SOX information predicted several types of security breaches, with the strongest performance in predicting credit card fraud. A systematic tuning of hyperparamters for a suite of machine learning models, starting with a random forest, an extremely-randomized forest, a random grid of gradient boosting machines (GBMs), a random grid of deep neural nets, a fixed grid of general linear models where assembled into two trained stacked ensemble models optimized for F1 performance; an ensemble that contained all the models, and an ensemble containing just the best performing model from each algorithm class. Tuned GBMs performed best under all conditions. Without FF, models yielded an AUC of 99.3% and closeness of the training and validation matrices confirm that the model is robust. The most important predictors were firm specific, as would be expected, since control weaknesses vary at the firm level. Audit firm fees were the most important non-firm-specific predictors. Adding FF to the model rendered perfect prediction (100%) in the trained confusion matrix and AUC of 99.8%. The most important predictors of credit card fraud were the FF coefficient for the High book-to-market ratio Minus Low factor. The second most influential variable was the year of reporting, and third most important was the Fama-French 3-factor model R2 – together these described most of the variance in credit card fraud occurrence. In all cases the four major SOX specific opinions rendered by auditors and the signed SOX report had little predictive influence.

本研究开发并测试了机器学习模型,利用萨班斯-奥克斯利法案(SOX)报告、违规新闻报道和Fama-French风险因素(FF)来预测企业系统中的重大信用卡欺诈行为。探索性分析发现,SOX信息预测了几种类型的安全漏洞,在预测信用卡欺诈方面表现最好。对一组机器学习模型的超参数进行系统调优,从随机森林、极端随机森林、梯度增强机(GBMs)的随机网格、深度神经网络的随机网格、一般线性模型的固定网格开始,这些模型组装成两个针对F1性能优化的训练有素的堆叠集成模型;一个包含所有模型的集成,一个只包含每个算法类中表现最好的模型的集成。调优的GBMs在所有条件下都表现最好。在没有FF的情况下,模型的AUC为99.3%,训练矩阵和验证矩阵的接近度证实了模型的鲁棒性。正如预期的那样,最重要的预测因素是公司特有的,因为控制弱点在公司层面有所不同。审计事务所收费是最重要的非特定公司预测指标。将FF添加到模型中,在训练的混淆矩阵中呈现完美的预测(100%),AUC为99.8%。信用卡欺诈最重要的预测因子是高账面市值比减去低因子的FF系数。第二个最具影响力的变量是报告年份,第三个最重要的变量是Fama-French 3-factor model R2——它们共同描述了信用卡欺诈发生的大部分差异。在所有情况下,审计员提出的四种主要SOX具体意见和签署的SOX报告几乎没有预测影响。
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引用次数: 8
期刊
Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management
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