In recent years, peer-to-peer (P2P) lending has been gaining popularity amongst borrowers and individual investors. This can mainly be attributed to the easy and quick access to loans and the higher possible returns. However, the risk involved in these investments is considerable, and for most investors, being nonprofessionals, this increases the complexity and the importance of investment decisions. In this study, we focus on generating optimal investment decisions to lenders for selecting loans. We treat the loan selection process in P2P lending as a portfolio optimization problem, with the aim being to select a set of loans that provide a required return while minimizing risk. In the process, we use internal rate of return as the measure of return. As the starting point of the model, we use machine-learning algorithms to predict the default probabilities and calculate expected values for the loans based on historical data. Afterwards, we calculate the distance between loans using (i) default probabilities and, as a novel step, (ii) expected value. In the calculations, we utilize kernel functions to obtain similarity weights of loans as the input of the optimization models. Two optimization models are tested and compared on data from the popular P2P platform Lending Club. The results show that using the expected-value framework yields higher return.
{"title":"Data-driven optimization of peer-to-peer lending portfolios based on the expected value framework","authors":"Ajay Byanjankar, József Mezei, Markku Heikkilä","doi":"10.1002/isaf.1490","DOIUrl":"10.1002/isaf.1490","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In recent years, peer-to-peer (P2P) lending has been gaining popularity amongst borrowers and individual investors. This can mainly be attributed to the easy and quick access to loans and the higher possible returns. However, the risk involved in these investments is considerable, and for most investors, being nonprofessionals, this increases the complexity and the importance of investment decisions. In this study, we focus on generating optimal investment decisions to lenders for selecting loans. We treat the loan selection process in P2P lending as a portfolio optimization problem, with the aim being to select a set of loans that provide a required return while minimizing risk. In the process, we use internal rate of return as the measure of return. As the starting point of the model, we use machine-learning algorithms to predict the default probabilities and calculate expected values for the loans based on historical data. Afterwards, we calculate the distance between loans using (i) default probabilities and, as a novel step, (ii) expected value. In the calculations, we utilize kernel functions to obtain similarity weights of loans as the input of the optimization models. Two optimization models are tested and compared on data from the popular P2P platform Lending Club. The results show that using the expected-value framework yields higher return.</p>","PeriodicalId":53473,"journal":{"name":"Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management","volume":"28 2","pages":"119-129"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1002/isaf.1490","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122050250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Volatility is an important element for various financial instruments owing to its ability to measure the risk and reward value of a given financial asset. Owing to its importance, forecasting volatility has become a critical task in financial forecasting. In this paper, we propose a suite of hybrid models for forecasting volatility of crude oil under different forecasting horizons. Specifically, we combine the parameters of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and Glosten–Jagannathan–Runkle (GJR)-GARCH with long short-term memory (LSTM) to create three new forecasting models named GARCH–LSTM, GJR-LSTM, and GARCH-GJRGARCH LSTM in order to forecast crude oil volatility of West Texas Intermediate on different forecasting horizons and compare their performance with the classical volatility forecasting models. Specifically, we compare the performances against existing methodologies of forecasting volatility such as GARCH and found that the proposed hybrid models improve upon the forecasting accuracy of Crude Oil: West Texas Intermediate under various forecasting horizons and perform better than GARCH and GJR-GARCH, with GG–LSTM performing the best of the three proposed models at 7-, 14-, and 21-day-ahead forecasts in terms of heteroscedasticity-adjusted mean square error and heteroscedasticity-adjusted mean absolute error, with significance testing conducted through the model confidence set showing that GG–LSTM is a strong contender for forecasting crude oil volatility under different forecasting regimes and rolling-window schemes. The contribution of the paper is that it enhances the forecasting ability of crude oil futures volatility, which is essential for trading, hedging, and purposes of arbitrage, and that the proposed model dwells upon existing literature and enhances the forecasting accuracy of crude oil volatility by fusing a neural network model with multiple econometric models.
{"title":"Forecasting volatility of crude oil futures using a GARCH–RNN hybrid approach","authors":"Sauraj Verma","doi":"10.1002/isaf.1489","DOIUrl":"10.1002/isaf.1489","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Volatility is an important element for various financial instruments owing to its ability to measure the risk and reward value of a given financial asset. Owing to its importance, forecasting volatility has become a critical task in financial forecasting. In this paper, we propose a suite of hybrid models for forecasting volatility of crude oil under different forecasting horizons. Specifically, we combine the parameters of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and Glosten–Jagannathan–Runkle (GJR)-GARCH with long short-term memory (LSTM) to create three new forecasting models named GARCH–LSTM, GJR-LSTM, and GARCH-GJRGARCH LSTM in order to forecast crude oil volatility of West Texas Intermediate on different forecasting horizons and compare their performance with the classical volatility forecasting models. Specifically, we compare the performances against existing methodologies of forecasting volatility such as GARCH and found that the proposed hybrid models improve upon the forecasting accuracy of Crude Oil: West Texas Intermediate under various forecasting horizons and perform better than GARCH and GJR-GARCH, with GG–LSTM performing the best of the three proposed models at 7-, 14-, and 21-day-ahead forecasts in terms of heteroscedasticity-adjusted mean square error and heteroscedasticity-adjusted mean absolute error, with significance testing conducted through the model confidence set showing that GG–LSTM is a strong contender for forecasting crude oil volatility under different forecasting regimes and rolling-window schemes. The contribution of the paper is that it enhances the forecasting ability of crude oil futures volatility, which is essential for trading, hedging, and purposes of arbitrage, and that the proposed model dwells upon existing literature and enhances the forecasting accuracy of crude oil volatility by fusing a neural network model with multiple econometric models.</p>","PeriodicalId":53473,"journal":{"name":"Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management","volume":"28 2","pages":"130-142"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1002/isaf.1489","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122598401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}