Asia-Pacific Financial Markets最新文献

We employ the "Two Sessions," comprising the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, as a proxy for measuring policy uncertainty. In our analysis, we utilize a regression model, the three-path mediated effect framework, and the Campbell and Shiller decomposition method to delve into the influence of policy uncertainty on asset pricing within China’s financial market. Our findings reveal an increase in stock returns during the months leading up to the "Two Sessions," evident at both the market and firm levels. Notably, the extent to which stock returns respond to policy uncertainty is contingent on various firm-specific characteristics, including ownership structure, company size, and profitability. Furthermore, our investigation confirms that investor sentiment serves as a complete mediator in the relationship between policy uncertainty and its impact on asset prices. Additionally, we identify future cash flow as the primary conduit through which policy uncertainty directly exerts its influence on asset prices.

This study used a Time-Varying Parameter VAR approach to analyze contagion risk among global stock markets and WTI crude oil during times of crisis. The examined markets included the United States, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, China, Japan, India, Russia, and select MENA stock markets. The research highlighted the importance of dynamic metrics in assessing financial networks and crisis contagion risk, an area that has received limited attention in previous studies. The evidence demonstrates rapid and dynamic financial contagion resulting from lockdown measures, the spread of COVID-19, and the Russia–Ukraine war. The U.S. and major European markets were identified as net global contributors, while Chinese and MENA equity markets acted as net receivers. Furthermore, the origin of oil shocks was more likely attributed to Russian and Saudi markets. This research carries policy implications for policymakers and investors, emphasizing the importance of shock and contagion effects in portfolio diversification and risk hedging, particularly during times of crisis.

This study examines the impact of the global pandemic on the returns and volatility of China’s commodity futures market from December 2019 to April 2021. Our analysis reveals that the regimes of futures returns in the general commodity, industrial, and metal markets are positively correlated with the regimes of pandemic cases, while the regimes of pandemic cases are negatively correlated with the returns of energy and precious metal futures. In contrast, futures volatilities exhibit inverse relationships with pandemic cases. With the exception of precious metals, which are widely considered safe-haven assets, the risk level of the commodity futures market, as measured by return volatility, is heightened by the level of pandemic cases. Bivariate SVAR results suggest that the pandemic has a greater but short-run impact on futures returns, while its effects on futures volatilities are relatively lesser but long-lasting.

Despite an attractive interest rate differential between China and foreign countries, existing capital control might prevent currency carry trade strategies to be executed. We focus on the copper market to study if trades are taken in order to execute carry trade strategies. We find that copper value is related to carry trade through the onshore-offshore interest differential, while the pegged nature of the USD/CNY exchange rate makes traders indifferent to the forward risk premium. We rule out the possibility of high average payoff due to peso problems, because risk factors are insignificant, implying that carry traders are either fully hedged on FX risks, or they are unconcerned about FX risks.

This paper identifies the presence of anomalies in Chinese urban construction investment bonds (UCIBs) market using variable ranking portfolio analysis and finds that liquidity anomalies, downside risk anomalies, and historical return anomalies significantly exist. By conducting Fama–MacBeth regressions on the cross-sectional returns of UCIBs and anomalies, we find that only the 6-month momentum in the historical return anomaly can generate statistically significant risk premium which cannot be explained by long-established bond pricing factors, and thus it’s an anomaly for UCIBs. This paper also finds that portfolios constructed based on significant anomalies in the UCIBs market can generate more profits than other models through the out-of-sample cross-sectional return forecasting.

The primary goal of the study is to examine the factors affecting the financial leverage of unicorn start-ups in India. In order to achieve this goal, the study has employed the panel data techniques on the financial data of 25 start-ups unicorn of India from 2017 to 2021. The study has employed three proxies to measure the financial leverage namely short-run, long-run, and total debt ratio. The result of the study indicates that firm size and profitability are significantly negatively correlated with debt ratios, whilst tangibility, business risk, and firm age are positively and significantly associated. Moreover, short-term debt is found to be more prevalent in unicorn firms when we bifurcate total debt into short and long-term debt. As per the best of author’s knowledge, this is the first research that identified the financial choice of startups. Furthermore, this study provides a pathway for conducting future study in this domain on startup firms’ capital structure decisions. This study has major implications for unicorn managements in taking decisions regarding their finance choice that may lead them to plan adequately their capital structure more efficiently and effectively.