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Gold and South Africa’s Great Depression 黄金和南非的大萧条
IF 0.5 Q1 HISTORY Pub Date : 2021-04-08 DOI: 10.1080/20780389.2021.1891879
Barry Eichengreen
ABSTRACT In this paper I seek to understand the roots of South African macroeconomic outperformance since 1929 and whether it can be reconciled with what I have described as conventional wisdom about recovery from the Depression. Unsurprisingly, I find a way of fitting South Africa into that story. In addition, I try to understand better why, if going off the gold standard was so beneficial, indeed even more beneficial for South Africa than for other countries, it was so strongly resisted.
摘要在本文中,我试图了解1929年以来南非宏观经济表现优异的根源,以及它是否能与我所描述的关于从大萧条中复苏的传统智慧相一致。不出所料,我找到了一种让南非融入这个故事的方法。此外,我试图更好地理解,如果取消金本位制如此有益,甚至对南非比其他国家更有益,为什么会遭到如此强烈的抵制。
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引用次数: 2
Bourses, banks, and Boers: Johannesburg’s French connections and the Paris Krach of 1895 证券、银行和布尔人:约翰内斯堡的法国关系和1895年的巴黎克拉赫
IF 0.5 Q1 HISTORY Pub Date : 2021-03-09 DOI: 10.1080/20780389.2021.1882298
Mariusz Lukasiewicz
ABSTRACT The 1894/5 Paris boom in South African mining securities set forth the ultimate test of financial resilience for the South African Republic’s mining and financial sectors. The financial crash in Paris that halted the international boom in October 1895 exposed the globalized nature of markets for South African mining securities and their impact on colonial politics in southern Africa. This article reconsiders and qualifies the economic, financial, and political connections between South African gold mining and the Parisian capital market for the period 1887 to 1895. The Paris Bourse and its complimentary coulisse became the new loci of the South African mining market that ultimately crashed after the intervention of Johannesburg’s capital elites. Crucially for the future of the South African Republic, the Paris Krach set out the political circumstances for a direct confrontation between Johannesburg’s mining capital, British imperialism and President Kruger’s republicanism. Exposing new primary material gathered at the Archives Diplomatiques in Paris, the Paribas Group in Paris, the Central Archival Repository in Pretoria and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in Sandton, this article examines the globalization of South African securities, concluding the investigation with an analysis of the financial and political ramifications of the 1895 Paris Krach.
摘要1894/5年南非矿业证券在巴黎的繁荣,对南非矿业和金融部门的金融弹性提出了终极考验。1895年10月,巴黎金融危机阻止了国际繁荣,暴露了南非矿业证券市场的全球化性质及其对南部非洲殖民政治的影响。本文重新考虑并限定了1887年至1895年期间南非金矿开采与巴黎资本市场之间的经济、金融和政治联系。巴黎证券交易所及其免费的库利斯成为南非矿业市场的新场所,在约翰内斯堡资本精英的干预下,南非矿业市场最终崩溃。对南非共和国的未来至关重要的是,《巴黎宪章》阐述了约翰内斯堡矿业之都、英国帝国主义和克鲁格总统的共和主义之间直接对抗的政治环境。本文展示了在巴黎外交档案馆、巴黎巴黎银行集团、比勒陀利亚中央档案库和桑顿约翰内斯堡证券交易所收集的新的原始材料,考察了南非证券的全球化,并分析了1895年巴黎克拉奇事件的金融和政治后果,从而结束了调查。
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引用次数: 1
Colonial legacy, private property, and rural development: Evidence from Namibian countryside 殖民遗产、私有财产和农村发展:来自纳米比亚农村的证据
IF 0.5 Q1 HISTORY Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/20780389.2020.1858049
V. Chlouba, Jianzi He
ABSTRACT Does the legacy of direct colonial rule, through its impact on property rights security, affect rural development in Africa? Although mainstream economic theory links secure property rights to development, extant micro-level evidence from the continent remains mixed. We take advantage of a natural experiment in Namibia, exploiting as-if random application of direct colonial rule that later affected property rights security. Using detailed census data and matching on underlying climatic conditions, we find evidence of more commercialized agricultural cultivation in directly ruled areas. We relate this finding to differing tenure regimes. In formerly indirectly ruled areas where land is still allocated by traditional elites, own-account agricultural activity for the market and living standards lag behind formerly directly ruled regions. Our work has direct implications for students of colonial legacies and land tenure regimes.
摘要直接殖民统治的遗产,通过其对产权安全的影响,是否影响了非洲的农村发展?尽管主流经济理论将安全的产权与发展联系在一起,但非洲大陆现存的微观证据仍然喜忧参半。我们利用了纳米比亚的一个自然实验,利用了后来影响产权安全的直接殖民统治的随意应用。通过详细的人口普查数据和对潜在气候条件的匹配,我们发现了直接统治地区农业种植更加商业化的证据。我们将这一发现与不同的保有制度联系起来。在以前的间接统治地区,土地仍然由传统精英分配,市场的自有农业活动和生活水平落后于以前的直接统治地区。我们的工作对研究殖民遗产和土地保有制度的学生有着直接的影响。
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引用次数: 2
Structural change in a small natural resource intensive economy: Switching between diversification and re-primarization, Uruguay, 1870–2017 自然资源密集型小型经济体的结构变化:多样化与再初级化之间的转换,乌拉圭,1870-2017
IF 0.5 Q1 HISTORY Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/20780389.2021.1878457
Carolina Román, Henry Willebald
ABSTRACT The increasing interest in economic diversification, technological sophistication, and production specialization again places structural change at the centre of the economic development theory. However, efforts to measure structural change from a long-run perspective remain scarce. We aim to fill this gap using a synthetic indicator that represents the dynamics of structural change in the long-run and allows us to identify different development patterns. We calculate this indicator including information on 13 production sectors, for a small natural-resource intensive economy (Uruguay), from 1870 to 2017. Our results adequately describe the development patterns that, according to the literature, characterize Uruguayan economic history. In the long run, economic growth causes structural change; only during the First Globalization period the opposite relation prevailed. The decline of the index – which indicates ‘backward movements’ in the production structure – is found in periods of economic crisis and downturn cycles. This dynamics reflects critical time periods associated with the (relative) primarization of the economy. In other words, near to each crisis episode, the economy reacted by going back to primary production probably due to the search for traditional comparative advantages or because in such negative phases the weakest and most exposed sectors were those other than agriculture.
人们对经济多样化、技术复杂化和生产专业化的兴趣日益浓厚,这再次将结构变革置于经济发展理论的中心。然而,从长期角度衡量结构变化的努力仍然很少。我们的目标是使用一个综合指标来填补这一空白,该指标代表了长期结构变化的动态,并使我们能够确定不同的发展模式。我们计算了这一指标,包括1870年至2017年期间小型自然资源密集型经济体(乌拉圭)的13个生产部门的信息。根据文献,我们的研究结果充分描述了乌拉圭经济史的发展模式。从长远来看,经济增长导致结构变化;只有在第一次全球化时期,相反的关系才占了上风。该指数的下降表明生产结构的“倒退”,出现在经济危机和衰退周期。这种动态反映了与经济(相对)初级化相关的关键时期。换言之,在每一次危机发生时,经济的反应都是恢复初级生产,这可能是因为寻求传统的比较优势,或者是因为在这种负面阶段,最弱和最受影响的部门是农业以外的部门。
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引用次数: 5
Parliamentary experience and contemporary democracy in Africa: A Northian view 非洲的议会经验与当代民主:一个北欧人的观点
IF 0.5 Q1 HISTORY Pub Date : 2020-11-25 DOI: 10.1080/20780389.2020.1830758
Joseph Keneck Massil, Sophie Harnay
ABSTRACT In a series of pioneering works, Douglass North argues that the institutional innovations taking place in seventeenth-century England as a consequence of a modification of the balance of power between the Parliament and the Crown provided the conditions not only for economic growth, but also for the development of democratic institutions later on. Our article extends his analysis to the study of parliaments in African countries before and after independence. We find that countries in which parliaments were established prior to independence are more likely to have efficient democratic institutions today. We define a variable of interest, ‘parliamentary experience at independence’, and estimate its effect on a democracy index. Several sensitivity and robustness tests confirm our results that parliamentary experience at the time of independence is a determinant of democracy in African countries today. This corroborates North’s idea that history and institutions do matter.
道格拉斯·诺斯(Douglass North)在一系列开创性著作中认为,17世纪英国发生的制度创新,是议会与国王之间权力平衡调整的结果,不仅为经济增长提供了条件,而且为后来民主制度的发展提供了条件。我们的文章将他的分析扩展到对独立前后非洲国家议会的研究。我们发现,在独立之前建立议会的国家今天更有可能拥有有效的民主机构。我们定义了一个感兴趣的变量,“独立时的议会经验”,并估计其对民主指数的影响。若干敏感性和稳健性测试证实了我们的结果,即独立时的议会经验是今天非洲国家民主的决定因素。这证实了诺斯的观点,即历史和制度确实很重要。
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引用次数: 1
‘Hit your man where you can’: Taxation strategies in the face of resistance at the British Cape Colony, c.1820 to 1910 “能打就打”:1820年至1910年英国开普殖民地面对抵抗时的税收策略
IF 0.5 Q1 HISTORY Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/20780389.2020.1791699
Abel Gwaindepi, K. Siebrits
ABSTRACT The topic of this article is the development of the tax system of the Cape Colony from 1820 to 1910. This period was crucial for the introduction and diffusion of modern taxes, and the Cape constitutes an important case as the prime settler-colony in Africa. The article uses a new tax dataset and evidence from official documents to trace and explain the Colony’s growing revenue problems during this period. It shows that few changes were made to the tax system from the annexation of diamond fields in 1877 until the end of the South African War in 1902 and that the public coffers mainly benefitted indirectly from the Colony’s increased prosperity via railway earnings. This, it is argued, largely reflected the success of efforts by the mining industry to block the introduction of new taxes. The article emphasizes the unusual form of this resistance: instead of undertaking conventional lobbying activities, industry representatives obtained positions of policymaking authority in the Cape Colony’s then still immature system of democratic institutions. Hence, it draws on the experience of the Cape to show that immature democratic institutions can hamper fiscal capacity-building.
本文的主题是1820年至1910年开普殖民地税收制度的发展。这一时期对现代税收的引入和传播至关重要,开普省是非洲主要的定居者殖民地。这篇文章使用了一个新的税收数据集和官方文件中的证据来追踪和解释殖民地在这一时期日益严重的收入问题。这表明,从1877年吞并钻石田到1902年南非战争结束,税收制度几乎没有改变,国库主要通过铁路收入间接受益于殖民地日益繁荣。有人认为,这在很大程度上反映了采矿业阻止引入新税的努力取得了成功。这篇文章强调了这种抵制的不同寻常的形式:行业代表没有进行传统的游说活动,而是在当时还不成熟的开普殖民地民主制度中获得了决策权。因此,它借鉴了开普省的经验,表明不成熟的民主体制可能会阻碍财政能力建设。
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引用次数: 9
The emergence and resolution of a quality problem in the Chinese tung oil market 1890 to 1937 1890年至1937年中国桐油市场质量问题的出现和解决
IF 0.5 Q1 HISTORY Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/20780389.2020.1808457
Masataka Setobayashi
ABSTRACT China experienced modern economic growth from 1890 to 1937. The expansion of foreign trade contributed to this economic growth. However, beginning at the end of the nineteenth century, dishonest practices, such as product adulteration, had been found in various transactions in China. In particular, adulteration was often a problem in the exports of goods from China. This article considers the reasons behind the emergence and resolution of a quality problem in the Chinese tung oil export market in the middle Yangtze Valley from the 1890s to the mid-1930s. Impure oil was customarily traded among Chinese in tung oil transactions; however, foreign merchants expected pure oil, which resulted in confusion in the market and a loss of business. Therefore, as the mixed oil problem became increasingly serious, market participants tried to create institutions to prevent adulteration. However, the formal institutions were not sufficient to resolve the problem until the 1930s. In China, the function of informal institutions complemented the imperfect functions of the formal institutions. More importantly, the institutionalization in the 1930s, which was associated to the Great Depression, was based on gradual change until the 1920s. Consequently, the quality problem headed toward a resolution in the 1930s.
摘要从1890年到1937年,中国经历了近代经济的发展。对外贸易的扩大促进了这种经济增长。然而,从19世纪末开始,在中国的各种交易中都发现了不诚实的行为,如产品掺假。特别是,掺假往往是中国商品出口中的一个问题。本文探讨了19世纪90年代至30年代中期中国长江中游桐油出口市场出现质量问题的原因及解决方法。在桐油交易中,中国人之间通常交易不洁的石油;然而,外国商人期望纯石油,这导致市场混乱和业务损失。因此,随着混合油问题日益严重,市场参与者试图建立机构来防止掺假。然而,直到20世纪30年代,正式的机构才足以解决这个问题。在中国,非正式机构的功能是对正式机构不完善功能的补充。更重要的是,20世纪30年代的制度化与大萧条有关,直到20世纪20年代才建立在渐进的基础上。因此,质量问题在20世纪30年代得到了解决。
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引用次数: 1
Planning China’s future: Liu Guojun's conception of China’s post-war economic recovery 规划中国未来——刘国钧战后中国经济复苏构想
IF 0.5 Q1 HISTORY Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.1080/20780389.2020.1762172
Carles Brasó Broggi, Jixia Ge
ABSTRACT Liu Guojun was a Chinese capitalist who owned textile mills in Republican China. During the war against Japan, his enterprises survived in several cities while he wrote essays about the prospects of China’s economic recovery. He developed a fine sense of the post-war world economy and participated in discussions about China’s economic development. In 1949 he decided to stay in the People’s Republic of China, continuing with his work in the textile business and entering the political administration of Jiangsu and the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce. During this transitional period, he wrote an economic plan for the development of China’s textile industry, specifying how this industry should nurture other economic sectors and help to improve both the standards of living and the education of the Chinese people. This article aims to discuss China’s late economic development through Liu Guojun’s publications and writings that have recently been available to scholars. The article suggests that Liu Guojun anticipated some key factors that drove China’s economic reform to succeed in 1978, such as the importance of light industries, given the resource endowments of the country and the situation of the post-war economic recovery.
摘要刘国钧是一位在民国时期拥有纺织厂的中国资本家。抗日战争期间,他的企业在几个城市幸存下来,同时他写了一些关于中国经济复苏前景的文章。他对战后世界经济有着深刻的认识,并参与了有关中国经济发展的讨论。1949年,他决定留在中华人民共和国,继续从事纺织业工作,进入江苏省政治局和中华全国工商联。在这一过渡时期,他为中国纺织业的发展编写了一份经济计划,明确了纺织业应如何培育其他经济部门,帮助提高中国人民的生活水平和教育水平。本文旨在通过刘国军最近出版的出版物和著作来讨论中国经济的后期发展。文章认为,考虑到中国的资源禀赋和战后经济复苏的形势,刘国军预见到了推动1978年中国经济改革成功的一些关键因素,如轻工业的重要性。
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引用次数: 1
The substitutability of slaves: Evidence from the eastern frontier of the Cape Colony 奴隶的可替代性:来自开普殖民地东部边界的证据
IF 0.5 Q1 HISTORY Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/20780389.2019.1669444
Calumet Links, J. Fourie, E. Green
ABSTRACT The substitutability of the economic institution of slave labour has often been assumed as a given. Apart from some capital investment to retrain slaves for a different task, essentially their labour could be substituted for any other form of labour. This paper questions that assumption by using a longitudinal study of the Graaff-Reinet district on the eastern frontier of South Africa’s Cape Colony. We calculate the Hicksian elasticity of complementarity coefficients for each year of a 22-year combination of cross-sectional tax datasets (1805–1828) to test whether slave labour was substitutable for other forms of labour. We find that slave labour, indigenous labour and settler family labour were not substitutable over the period of the study. This lends credence to the finding that slave and family labour were two different inputs in agricultural production. Indigenous khoe labour and slave labour remain complements throughout the period of the study even when khoe labour becomes scarce after the frontier conflicts. We argue that the non-substitutability of slave labour was due to the settlers’ need to acquire labourers with location-specific skills such as the indigenous khoe, and that slaves may have served a purpose other than as a source of unskilled labour, such as for artisan skills or for collateral.
奴隶劳动经济制度的可替代性通常被认为是既定的。除了一些资本投资来重新培训奴隶完成不同的任务外,他们的劳动基本上可以取代任何其他形式的劳动。本文通过对南非开普殖民地东部边境Graaff-Reinet地区的纵向研究,对这一假设提出了质疑。我们计算了22年的横断面税收数据集组合(1805–1828)中每年的希克斯互补系数弹性,以测试奴隶劳动是否可以替代其他形式的劳动。我们发现,在研究期间,奴隶劳动、土著劳动和定居者家庭劳动是不可替代的。这证明了奴隶劳动和家庭劳动是农业生产中两种不同的投入。在整个研究期间,土著khoe劳动和奴隶劳动仍然是互补的,即使在边境冲突后khoe劳动力变得稀缺。我们认为,奴隶劳动力的不可替代性是由于定居者需要获得具有特定地点技能的劳动力,如土著khoe,奴隶可能有非技术性劳动力来源之外的其他目的,如获得手工技能或抵押品。
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引用次数: 3
Beyond national markets: The case of emerging African multinationals 超越国家市场:新兴非洲跨国公司的案例
IF 0.5 Q1 HISTORY Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/20780389.2020.1757425
Ebes Esho, G. Verhoef
ABSTRACT Findings from research on emerging market multinationals (EMNEs) have posed some intriguing questions to scholars. While some of the questions are easy to explain through the lens of extant theories, others are more complex. Research on African multinationals is limited and being only a recent phenomenon, historical accounts of their internationalization is scarce. Early findings suggest that African firms exhibit distinct internationalization behaviour from other EMNEs. However, are EMNEs from Africa and their internationalization behaviour unique? This paper expounds the internationalization of three nascent African multinationals through the lens of extant theories and finds that multiple theories converge to explain their internationalization. Their distinct paths to internationalization come from their independent efforts in navigating Africa's diverse, and sometimes extreme, contextual challenges and opportunities. Alongside the global orientation of founders that originates from their education and experience, relationships from founders’ networks also play a dominant role in the internationalization process of African EMNEs. The conditions for business, especially for internationalization, in Africa are unique, and sometimes extreme. Institutional voids and informal markets, for example, are pervasive and huge. However, the African context enables a nuanced understanding of extant theories and the linkages between theories in explaining internationalization of EMNEs.
新兴市场跨国公司(EMNEs)的研究结果给学者们提出了一些有趣的问题。虽然有些问题很容易通过现有理论来解释,但其他问题则更为复杂。对非洲跨国公司的研究是有限的,而且是最近才出现的现象,关于它们国际化的历史记载很少。早期的研究结果表明,非洲公司表现出与其他新兴市场国家不同的国际化行为。然而,非洲的新兴市场国家及其国际化行为是独一无二的吗?本文从现有理论的角度对三家新兴非洲跨国公司的国际化进行了阐述,发现多种理论在解释它们的国际化时趋于一致。他们独特的国际化道路来自于他们在应对非洲多样化,有时甚至是极端的环境挑战和机遇方面的独立努力。除了创始人的教育和经历所导致的全球倾向外,创始人网络关系在非洲新兴市场企业的国际化进程中也起着主导作用。非洲的商业环境,尤其是国际化的环境是独特的,有时甚至是极端的。例如,制度空白和非正式市场是普遍和巨大的。然而,非洲的情况使我们能够细致入微地了解解释EMNEs国际化的现有理论和理论之间的联系。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Economic History of Developing Regions
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