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Nowcasting of a Warm-Sector Rainfall Event in Southern China With the TRAMS Model: Sensitivity to Different Radar Reflectivity Retrieval Methods and Incremental Updating Strategies
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-01-07 DOI: 10.1029/2024EA003724
Xiaoxia Lin, Yerong Feng, Yuntao Jian, Daosheng Xu, Jincan Huang, Haowei Chen, Banglin Zhang

To improve the radar data assimilation scheme for the high-resolution Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System (TRAMS) model, this study investigates the sensitivity of simulating a warm-sector rainfall event in southern China to different radar reflectivity retrieval methods and incremental updating strategies. The findings indicate that the ice cloud retrieval (ICR) method yields more reasonable cloud hydrometeors. However, the impact of different retrieval methods is minimal without corresponding adjustments to the dynamic field. Further assimilation of the wind field effectively reduced the overestimated south winds and successfully simulated the observed low-level convergence in northern Guangdong, significantly improving precipitation forecasts. Both incremental analysis update (IAU) and Nudging methods were able to adjust the forecast to better match the observations, with IAU performing slightly better. These findings are beneficial for further improving the forecast accuracy of precipitation intensity. Extending the IAU relaxation time from 4 to 10 min has almost no impact on the actual forecasting. However, prioritizing the adjustment of the wind field through time-dependent IAU weighting factors, the impact of cloud particle adjustments on the dynamical field can be avoided (e.g., the drag caused by the sinking of cloud particles may offset the upward motion induced by dynamical convergence adjustments). This allows for more realistic low-level wind convergence and precipitation forecasts to be obtained. Overall, the ICR method for retrieving cloud hydrometeors, combined with the IAU method using time-dependent distribution weighting factors appears to be a more suitable option for the radar data assimilation scheme in TRAMS model.

{"title":"Nowcasting of a Warm-Sector Rainfall Event in Southern China With the TRAMS Model: Sensitivity to Different Radar Reflectivity Retrieval Methods and Incremental Updating Strategies","authors":"Xiaoxia Lin,&nbsp;Yerong Feng,&nbsp;Yuntao Jian,&nbsp;Daosheng Xu,&nbsp;Jincan Huang,&nbsp;Haowei Chen,&nbsp;Banglin Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2024EA003724","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EA003724","url":null,"abstract":"<p>To improve the radar data assimilation scheme for the high-resolution Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System (TRAMS) model, this study investigates the sensitivity of simulating a warm-sector rainfall event in southern China to different radar reflectivity retrieval methods and incremental updating strategies. The findings indicate that the ice cloud retrieval (ICR) method yields more reasonable cloud hydrometeors. However, the impact of different retrieval methods is minimal without corresponding adjustments to the dynamic field. Further assimilation of the wind field effectively reduced the overestimated south winds and successfully simulated the observed low-level convergence in northern Guangdong, significantly improving precipitation forecasts. Both incremental analysis update (IAU) and Nudging methods were able to adjust the forecast to better match the observations, with IAU performing slightly better. These findings are beneficial for further improving the forecast accuracy of precipitation intensity. Extending the IAU relaxation time from 4 to 10 min has almost no impact on the actual forecasting. However, prioritizing the adjustment of the wind field through time-dependent IAU weighting factors, the impact of cloud particle adjustments on the dynamical field can be avoided (e.g., the drag caused by the sinking of cloud particles may offset the upward motion induced by dynamical convergence adjustments). This allows for more realistic low-level wind convergence and precipitation forecasts to be obtained. Overall, the ICR method for retrieving cloud hydrometeors, combined with the IAU method using time-dependent distribution weighting factors appears to be a more suitable option for the radar data assimilation scheme in TRAMS model.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EA003724","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143112957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Four Generations of ECMWF Reanalyses: An Overview of the Successes in Modeling Precipitation and Remaining Challenges for Freshwater Budget of Ocean Models
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-01-04 DOI: 10.1029/2024EA003844
Raphael Dussin

This study reviews the progress made in modeling precipitations in four generations of reanalyses from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, using traditional metrics and a new set of regional metrics. Regional metrics at oceanic basin scales and large land catchment areas over the continents allow for a more comprehensive analysis of the performance of the reanalyses. This leads to the conclusion that significant progress has been made in the past several decades in both the atmospheric model and the assimilation system at the ECMWF, leading to more realistic precipitation. The most recent ERA5 reanalysis outperforms ERA-Interim and its predecessors by all metrics considered. ERA5 is then used to force a modern ocean general circulation model, and the results show an improvement in terms of the freshwater budget, particularly after the year 2000. However, uncertainties remain about the magnitude and trends of the modeled evaporation.

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引用次数: 0
Analysis of 42 Years of Cosmic Ray Measurements by the Neutron Monitor at Lomnický štít Observatory
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-01-04 DOI: 10.1029/2024EA003656
Imre Kisvárdai, Filip Štempel, Lukáš Randuška, Šimon Mackovjak, Ronald Langer, Igor Strhárský, Ján Kubančák

The correlation and physical interconnection between space weather indices and cosmic ray flux has been well-established with extensive literature on the topic. Our investigation is centered on the relationships among the solar radio flux, geomagnetic field activity, and cosmic ray flux, as observed by the Neutron Monitor at the Lomnický štít Observatory in Slovakia. We processed the raw neutron monitor data, generating the first publicly accessible data set spanning 42 years. The curated continuous data are available in.csv format in hourly resolution from December 1981 to July 2023 and in minute resolution from January 2001 to July 2023 (Institute of Experimental Physics SAS, 2024, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10790915). Validation of this processed data was accomplished by identifying distinctive events within the data set. As part of the selection of events for case studies, we report the discovery of TGE-s visible in the data. Applying the Pearson method for statistical analysis, we quantified the linear correlation of the data sets. Additionally, a prediction power score was computed to reveal potential non-linear relationships. Our findings demonstrate a significant anti-correlation between cosmic ray and solar radio flux with a correlation coefficient of −0.74, coupled with a positive correlation concerning geomagnetic field strength. We also found that the neutron monitor measurements correlate better with a delay of 7–21 hr applied to the geomagnetic field strength data. The correlation between these data sets is further improved when inspecting periods of extreme solar events only. Lastly, the computed prediction power score of 0.22 for neutron flux in the context of geomagnetic field strength presents exciting possibilities for developing real-time geomagnetic storm prediction models based on cosmic ray measurements.

{"title":"Analysis of 42 Years of Cosmic Ray Measurements by the Neutron Monitor at Lomnický štít Observatory","authors":"Imre Kisvárdai,&nbsp;Filip Štempel,&nbsp;Lukáš Randuška,&nbsp;Šimon Mackovjak,&nbsp;Ronald Langer,&nbsp;Igor Strhárský,&nbsp;Ján Kubančák","doi":"10.1029/2024EA003656","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EA003656","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The correlation and physical interconnection between space weather indices and cosmic ray flux has been well-established with extensive literature on the topic. Our investigation is centered on the relationships among the solar radio flux, geomagnetic field activity, and cosmic ray flux, as observed by the Neutron Monitor at the Lomnický štít Observatory in Slovakia. We processed the raw neutron monitor data, generating the first publicly accessible data set spanning 42 years. The curated continuous data are available in.csv format in hourly resolution from December 1981 to July 2023 and in minute resolution from January 2001 to July 2023 (Institute of Experimental Physics SAS, 2024, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10790915). Validation of this processed data was accomplished by identifying distinctive events within the data set. As part of the selection of events for case studies, we report the discovery of TGE-s visible in the data. Applying the Pearson method for statistical analysis, we quantified the linear correlation of the data sets. Additionally, a prediction power score was computed to reveal potential non-linear relationships. Our findings demonstrate a significant anti-correlation between cosmic ray and solar radio flux with a correlation coefficient of −0.74, coupled with a positive correlation concerning geomagnetic field strength. We also found that the neutron monitor measurements correlate better with a delay of 7–21 hr applied to the geomagnetic field strength data. The correlation between these data sets is further improved when inspecting periods of extreme solar events only. Lastly, the computed prediction power score of 0.22 for neutron flux in the context of geomagnetic field strength presents exciting possibilities for developing real-time geomagnetic storm prediction models based on cosmic ray measurements.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EA003656","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mapping 3D Overthrust Structures by a Hybrid Modeling Method
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-12-30 DOI: 10.1029/2024EA003916
Weisheng Hou, Yanhua Li, Shuwan Ye, Songhua Yang, Fan Xiao

A rational three-dimensional (3D) geological model with complex characteristics generated on a small amount of data is a crucial data infrastructure for scientific research and many applications. However, reconstructing structures with multi-Z values on a single point caused by folding or overthrusting is still one of the bottlenecks in 3D geological modeling. Combined with the multi-point statistics (MPS) method and fully connected neural networks (FCNs), this study presented a hybrid framework for 3D geological modeling. The loss functions of FCN and the conventional MPS method jointly form the kernel function of the proposed method, which is constrained by stratigraphic sequence and stratum thickness. The input and output parameters of the FCN are the coordinates and corresponding elevations of geological contacts, respectively. To solve the kernel function, the initial model, in which geological surfaces are generated by the FCNs, is generated using a sequential process. An iterative MPS process with an Expectation Maximization-like (EM-like) algorithm is carried out to illuminate the artifacts in the initial model. Ten orthogonal cross-sections are extracted from the overthrust model created by SEG/EAGE as the modeling data source. The results illustrated that the geometry and spatial relationships of strata and faults are retained well with the geological constraints. The comparison of virtual boreholes from the results and the real model shows that the accuracy of the geological object reaches 75%. The presented method provides a new idea for simulating 3D structures with multi-Z values, which overcomes the limitations of the conventional MPS-based 3D modeling method.

{"title":"Mapping 3D Overthrust Structures by a Hybrid Modeling Method","authors":"Weisheng Hou,&nbsp;Yanhua Li,&nbsp;Shuwan Ye,&nbsp;Songhua Yang,&nbsp;Fan Xiao","doi":"10.1029/2024EA003916","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EA003916","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A rational three-dimensional (3D) geological model with complex characteristics generated on a small amount of data is a crucial data infrastructure for scientific research and many applications. However, reconstructing structures with multi-Z values on a single point caused by folding or overthrusting is still one of the bottlenecks in 3D geological modeling. Combined with the multi-point statistics (MPS) method and fully connected neural networks (FCNs), this study presented a hybrid framework for 3D geological modeling. The loss functions of FCN and the conventional MPS method jointly form the kernel function of the proposed method, which is constrained by stratigraphic sequence and stratum thickness. The input and output parameters of the FCN are the coordinates and corresponding elevations of geological contacts, respectively. To solve the kernel function, the initial model, in which geological surfaces are generated by the FCNs, is generated using a sequential process. An iterative MPS process with an Expectation Maximization-like (EM-like) algorithm is carried out to illuminate the artifacts in the initial model. Ten orthogonal cross-sections are extracted from the overthrust model created by SEG/EAGE as the modeling data source. The results illustrated that the geometry and spatial relationships of strata and faults are retained well with the geological constraints. The comparison of virtual boreholes from the results and the real model shows that the accuracy of the geological object reaches 75%. The presented method provides a new idea for simulating 3D structures with multi-Z values, which overcomes the limitations of the conventional MPS-based 3D modeling method.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EA003916","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143120972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating GEMS HCHO Retrievals With TROPOMI Product, Pandora Observations, and GEOS-Chem Simulations
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-12-29 DOI: 10.1029/2024EA003894
Weitao Fu, Lei Zhu, Hyeong-Ahn Kwon, Rokjin J. Park, Gitaek T. Lee, Isabelle De Smedt, Song Liu, Xicheng Li, Yuyang Chen, Dongchuan Pu, Juan Li, Xiaoxing Zuo, Peng Zhang, Yali Li, Zhuoxian Yan, Xue Zhang, Jiaming Zhang, Xingyi Wu, Huizhong Shen, Jianhuai Ye, Chen Wang, Tzung-May Fu, Xin Yang

Satellite column formaldehyde (HCHO) is an indicator of regional volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions as HCHO is a short-lived intermediate oxidation product. The Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), launched in 2020, is the first geostationary satellite to monitor hourly HCHO. GEMS offers unprecedented potential to reveal the diurnal variations of VOC emissions in Asia. Here, we present the first study to evaluate year-round GEMS HCHO retrievals using TROPOMI satellite and ground-based Pandora spectrometers. Our study shows that GEMS HCHO aligns with TROPOMI (r = 0.59–0.85; differences within 20% for most areas). Moreover, GEMS captures monthly and diurnal HCHO variations observed by Pandora spectrometers across Asia with differences overall within 15% (r ∼ 0.85). Diurnally, we find strong HCHO variations over urban areas but not in forests. During the fire season of mainland Southeast Asia, GEMS HCHO increases in the afternoon, in line with diurnal emission estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database Version 4 with small fires (GFED4s) and GEOS-Chem simulations. GEMS also captures the spatial patterns of fire emissions in GFED4s. GEMS HCHO shows negative bias when observing with a high (>60°) viewing zenith angle (VZA) and overly relies on model correction for observations to the north of 30°N.

{"title":"Evaluating GEMS HCHO Retrievals With TROPOMI Product, Pandora Observations, and GEOS-Chem Simulations","authors":"Weitao Fu,&nbsp;Lei Zhu,&nbsp;Hyeong-Ahn Kwon,&nbsp;Rokjin J. Park,&nbsp;Gitaek T. Lee,&nbsp;Isabelle De Smedt,&nbsp;Song Liu,&nbsp;Xicheng Li,&nbsp;Yuyang Chen,&nbsp;Dongchuan Pu,&nbsp;Juan Li,&nbsp;Xiaoxing Zuo,&nbsp;Peng Zhang,&nbsp;Yali Li,&nbsp;Zhuoxian Yan,&nbsp;Xue Zhang,&nbsp;Jiaming Zhang,&nbsp;Xingyi Wu,&nbsp;Huizhong Shen,&nbsp;Jianhuai Ye,&nbsp;Chen Wang,&nbsp;Tzung-May Fu,&nbsp;Xin Yang","doi":"10.1029/2024EA003894","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EA003894","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Satellite column formaldehyde (HCHO) is an indicator of regional volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions as HCHO is a short-lived intermediate oxidation product. The Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), launched in 2020, is the first geostationary satellite to monitor hourly HCHO. GEMS offers unprecedented potential to reveal the diurnal variations of VOC emissions in Asia. Here, we present the first study to evaluate year-round GEMS HCHO retrievals using TROPOMI satellite and ground-based Pandora spectrometers. Our study shows that GEMS HCHO aligns with TROPOMI (<i>r</i> = 0.59–0.85; differences within 20% for most areas). Moreover, GEMS captures monthly and diurnal HCHO variations observed by Pandora spectrometers across Asia with differences overall within 15% (<i>r</i> ∼ 0.85). Diurnally, we find strong HCHO variations over urban areas but not in forests. During the fire season of mainland Southeast Asia, GEMS HCHO increases in the afternoon, in line with diurnal emission estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database Version 4 with small fires (GFED4s) and GEOS-Chem simulations. GEMS also captures the spatial patterns of fire emissions in GFED4s. GEMS HCHO shows negative bias when observing with a high (&gt;60°) viewing zenith angle (VZA) and overly relies on model correction for observations to the north of 30°N.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EA003894","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143120447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Machine Learning Classification Strategy to Improve Streamflow Estimates in Diverse River Basins in the Colorado River Basin
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-12-22 DOI: 10.1029/2024EA003798
Sarah Maebius, K. E. Bennett, J. Schwenk

Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) is significantly altered by human activities including land use/cover alterations, reservoir operation, irrigation, and water exports. Climate is also highly varied across the CRB which contains snowpack-dominated watersheds and arid, precipitation-dominated basins. Recently, machine learning methods have improved the generalizability and accuracy of streamflow models. Previous successes with LSTM modeling have primarily focused on unimpacted basins, and few studies have included human impacted systems in either regional or single-basin modeling. We demonstrate that the diverse hydrological behavior of river basins in the CRB are too difficult to model with a single, regional model. We propose a method to delineate catchments into categories based on the level of predictability, hydrological characteristics, and the level of human influence. Lastly, we model streamflow in each category with climate and anthropogenic proxy data sets and use feature importance methods to assess whether model performance improves with additional relevant data. Overall, land use cover data at a low temporal resolution was not sufficient to capture the irregular patterns of reservoir releases, demonstrating the importance of having high-resolution reservoir release data sets at a global scale. On the other hand, the classification approach reduced the complexity of the data and has the potential to improve streamflow forecasts in human-altered regions.

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引用次数: 0
Occurrence of Rare Lightning Events During Hurricane Nicholas (2021) “尼古拉斯”飓风期间罕见闪电事件的发生(2021年)
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-12-21 DOI: 10.1029/2024EA003733
Timothy Logan, Jacob Hale, Sydney Butler, Brendan Lawrence, Samuel Gardner

Hurricane Nicholas was classified as a Category 1 tropical cyclone (TC) at 0000 UTC on 14 September 2021 and made landfall along the upper Texas Gulf Coast at 0530 UTC with maximum sustained winds of 33 m s−1. Much of the electrical activity during Nicholas was monitored by the Houston Lightning Mapping Array (HLMA) network. Thunderstorm activity developed in the rainband at 1700 UTC on 13 September, diminished by 2030 UTC, and re-intensified after 2200 UTC. At 2004 UTC (13 September), a curved megaflash (∼220 km) was observed by the HLMA in the stratiform precipitation region of the outer rainband. By 0130 UTC on 14 September 2021, vigorous storm cells developed in the eastern eyewall region and propagated cyclonically to the western eyewall region. At least four “jet-like” transient luminous events (TLEs) were observed by the HLMA emanating from a storm cell in the western eyewall region between 0230 and 0300 UTC with VHF source points ranging from 30 to 45 km in altitude. Moreover, the TLEs occurred within a region of strong wind shear, upper-level graupel-ice crystal collisions (∼15 km), and strong cloud top divergence. Charge analysis of the thunderstorm activity during Nicholas revealed an overall normal dipole structure, while the megaflash and TLE cases exhibited inverted dipole charge structures. Dissipation of the upper-level screening charge layer resulting from cloud top divergence likely played a role in the observed TLE VHF sources escaping to altitudes exceeding 30 km.

飓风尼古拉斯于2021年9月14日0000世界时被列为一级热带气旋,并于0530世界时沿德克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸登陆,最大持续风速为33米/秒。“尼古拉斯”期间的大部分电活动由休斯敦闪电测绘阵列(HLMA)网络监测。雷暴活动在9月13日1700世界时在雨带发展,到2030世界时减弱,2200世界时后再次增强。在2004 UTC(9月13日),HLMA在外层雨带的层状降水区观测到一个弯曲的巨型闪光(~ 220公里)。到2021年9月14日0130 UTC,东部眼壁区发展出强烈的风暴单体,并以气旋方式向西部眼壁区传播。在0230 - 0300 UTC期间,hma在西眼壁区域的一个风暴单体观测到至少4个“喷射状”瞬变发光事件(TLEs), VHF源点高度在30 - 45 km之间。此外,TLEs发生在强风切变、上层霰-冰晶碰撞(~ 15 km)和强云顶辐散的区域内。尼古拉斯雷暴期间的电荷分析显示整体上为正常的偶极子结构,而巨闪和TLE则表现为反向的偶极子电荷结构。在观测到的TLE VHF源逃逸到超过30 km高度的过程中,由云顶散度引起的上层屏蔽电荷层耗散可能起了一定作用。
{"title":"Occurrence of Rare Lightning Events During Hurricane Nicholas (2021)","authors":"Timothy Logan,&nbsp;Jacob Hale,&nbsp;Sydney Butler,&nbsp;Brendan Lawrence,&nbsp;Samuel Gardner","doi":"10.1029/2024EA003733","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EA003733","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hurricane Nicholas was classified as a Category 1 tropical cyclone (TC) at 0000 UTC on 14 September 2021 and made landfall along the upper Texas Gulf Coast at 0530 UTC with maximum sustained winds of 33 m s<sup>−1</sup>. Much of the electrical activity during Nicholas was monitored by the Houston Lightning Mapping Array (HLMA) network. Thunderstorm activity developed in the rainband at 1700 UTC on 13 September, diminished by 2030 UTC, and re-intensified after 2200 UTC. At 2004 UTC (13 September), a curved megaflash (∼220 km) was observed by the HLMA in the stratiform precipitation region of the outer rainband. By 0130 UTC on 14 September 2021, vigorous storm cells developed in the eastern eyewall region and propagated cyclonically to the western eyewall region. At least four “jet-like” transient luminous events (TLEs) were observed by the HLMA emanating from a storm cell in the western eyewall region between 0230 and 0300 UTC with VHF source points ranging from 30 to 45 km in altitude. Moreover, the TLEs occurred within a region of strong wind shear, upper-level graupel-ice crystal collisions (∼15 km), and strong cloud top divergence. Charge analysis of the thunderstorm activity during Nicholas revealed an overall normal dipole structure, while the megaflash and TLE cases exhibited inverted dipole charge structures. Dissipation of the upper-level screening charge layer resulting from cloud top divergence likely played a role in the observed TLE VHF sources escaping to altitudes exceeding 30 km.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"11 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EA003733","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142868791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seasonal Cycle in Sea Level Across the Coastal Zone 沿海地区海平面的季节周期
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-12-20 DOI: 10.1029/2024EA003978
Rui M. Ponte, Michael Schindelegger
<p>Data from tide gauges and satellite altimeters are used to provide an up-to-date assessment of the mean seasonal cycle in sea level (<span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <mi>ζ</mi> </mrow> <annotation> $zeta $</annotation> </semantics></math>) over most of the global coastal ocean. The tide gauge records, where available, depict a <span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <mi>ζ</mi> </mrow> <annotation> $zeta $</annotation> </semantics></math> seasonal cycle with complex spatial structure along and across continental boundaries, and an annual oscillation dominating over semiannual variability, except in a few regions (e.g., the northwestern Gulf of Mexico). Comparisons between tide gauge and altimeter data reveal substantial root-mean-square differences and only slight improvements in agreement when using along-track data optimized for coastal applications. Quantification of the uncertainty in the altimeter products, inferred from comparing gridded and along-track estimates, indicate that differences to tide gauges partly reflect short-scale features of the seasonal cycle in proximity to the coasts. We additionally probe the <span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <mi>ζ</mi> </mrow> <annotation> $zeta $</annotation> </semantics></math> seasonal budget using satellite gravimetry-based manometric estimates and steric terms calculated from the World Ocean Atlas 2023. Focusing on global median values, the sum of the estimated steric and manometric harmonics can explain <span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <mo>∼</mo> </mrow> <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation> </semantics></math> 65% (respectively 40%) of the annual (semiannual) variance in the coastal <span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <mi>ζ</mi> </mrow> <annotation> $zeta $</annotation> </semantics></math> observations. We identify several regions, for example, the Australian seaboard, where the seasonal <span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <mi>ζ</mi> </mrow> <annotation> $zeta $</annotation> </semantics></math> budget is not closed and illustrate that such analysis is mainly limited by the coarse spatial resolution of present satellite-derived mass change products. For most regions with a sufficiently tight budget closure, we find that although the importance of the manometric term generally increases with decreasing water depth, steric contributions are non-negligible nea
来自潮汐计和卫星高度计的数据被用来提供全球大部分沿海海洋海平面平均季节周期的最新评估(ζ $zeta $)。在现有的验潮仪记录中,描述了一个ζ $zeta $季节周期,具有沿大陆边界和跨大陆边界的复杂空间结构,除了少数地区(如墨西哥湾西北部)外,一年一次的振荡占主导地位,而不是半年一次的变化。潮汐计和高度计数据之间的比较揭示了显著的均方根差异,当使用针对沿海应用优化的沿轨数据时,一致性仅略有改善。对高度计产品的不确定性进行量化,通过比较格网估算和沿迹估算推断,表明与潮汐测量仪的差异部分反映了海岸附近季节周期的短尺度特征。我们还使用基于卫星重力的压力估计和2023年世界海洋地图集计算的立体项来探测ζ $zeta $季节预算。关注全局中值,估计的空间谐波和压力谐波的总和可以解释~ ${sim} $ 65% (respectively 40%) of the annual (semiannual) variance in the coastal ζ $zeta $ observations. We identify several regions, for example, the Australian seaboard, where the seasonal ζ $zeta $ budget is not closed and illustrate that such analysis is mainly limited by the coarse spatial resolution of present satellite-derived mass change products. For most regions with a sufficiently tight budget closure, we find that although the importance of the manometric term generally increases with decreasing water depth, steric contributions are non-negligible near coastlines, especially at the annual frequency.
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引用次数: 0
Trends of Summer Lake Surface Water Temperature on the Tibetan Plateau and Their Response to Climate Change 青藏高原夏季湖泊地表水温变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1029/2024EA003910
Yi Shi, Anning Huang, Yang Wu,  Lazhu, Lijuan Wen

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is covered by numerous lakes, and lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is an essential indicator of climate change, while few observations hinder our understanding of LSWT variation and its causes over TP. This study aims to simulate the summer LSWT long-term trends of 81 TP lakes during 1980–2018 and quantify the impacts and contributions of atmospheric variables. Results show that TP lakes warmed with 0.32°C decade−1 on average. Northern TP lakes warmed faster than the southern ones (0.44 vs. 0.16°C decade−1) due to stronger trends of atmospheric variables and higher sensitive of colder lakes to atmospheric changes. 55 (67.9%) lakes of the total lakes studied in current work warmed slower than air due to weakened shortwave radiation (SW). Attribution analysis suggests that the air warming and wetting over TP dominate lakes' warming. Regarding synthesis contributions, air warming contributed 79.3%, with increased surface air temperature (SAT) and downward longwave radiation (LW) accounting for 41.6% and 37.7%, respectively, and air wetting indicated by increased surface specific humidity (SSH) contributed 39.0%, followed by a positive contribution (16.8%) from declined wind speed (WS). The negative contribution (−35.1%) from weakened SW nearly counterbalances the positive effects of increased LW. 55.1% of the total synthesis contribution arises from the cross contribution through interactions among atmospheric variables and is mainly reflected in SAT and SSH, accounting for 26.8% and 24.8%, respectively. The findings enhance understanding of climate change impacts on lake systems and offer insights for lake resource management.

青藏高原湖泊覆盖面积大,湖泊地表温度是气候变化的重要指标,但观测资料较少,阻碍了我们对青藏高原地表温度变化及其原因的认识。本研究旨在模拟1980—2018年81个TP湖泊夏季LSWT的长期趋势,量化大气变量的影响和贡献。结果表明,青藏高原湖泊平均升温幅度为0.32°C。由于大气变量的变化趋势更强,较冷湖泊对大气变化的敏感性更高,北部TP湖泊比南部湖泊升温更快(0.44 vs 0.16°C 10−1)。由于短波辐射减弱(SW↓),目前研究的湖泊中有55个(67.9%)湖泊的升温速度比空气慢。归因分析表明,青藏高原上空的空气增暖和湿润主导了湖泊增暖。在综合贡献中,空气增温贡献占79.3%,其中地表气温(SAT)升高和向下长波辐射(LW↓)分别占41.6%和37.7%,地表比湿度(SSH)增加所表现的空气润湿贡献占39.0%,其次是风速(WS)下降的正贡献(16.8%)。减弱的SW↓的负贡献(- 35.1%)几乎抵消了增加的LW↓的正影响。总合成贡献的55.1%来自于大气变量间相互作用的交叉贡献,主要体现在SAT和SSH,分别占26.8%和24.8%。这一发现增强了对气候变化对湖泊系统影响的认识,并为湖泊资源管理提供了见解。
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引用次数: 0
Changing Extreme Precipitation Patterns in Nepal Over 1971–2015 1971-2015 年尼泊尔极端降水模式的变化
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-12-15 DOI: 10.1029/2024EA003563
Yinxue Luo, Lang Wang, Chenxi Hu, Lu Hao, Ge Sun

This paper provides a comprehensive and comparative analysis of extreme precipitation patterns from 1971 to 2015 in Nepal, a data scarce, but “hot spot” region in global climate change. We compare in-situ observations and gridded precipitation data from the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Toward Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE). Using 11 precipitation indices, we show that high-intensity (RX1day, R95pTOT, R99pTOT) and frequency-related indices (R10 mm, R20 mm) have decreased but annual maximum consecutive dry and wet days have increased. Observations affirm these trends found by the APHRODITE, but show smaller magnitudes likely due to differences in measurements at locations made below the 3,000 m elevation line. Spatially, the relatively dry western region has become wetter, and the relatively wet eastern region has become drier post-2003. The weakening of the South Asia Monsoon circulation, particularly assessed by the Webster and Yang Monsoon Index, correlates strongly with extreme precipitation indices. Changes in upper-level jet and associated lower-level monsoon trough are identified as critical factors influencing the extreme precipitation trend post-2003. This study is the first to confirm the efficacy of APHRODITE in providing spatial and temporal precipitation patterns in a data-limited region. We conclude that monsoon weakened circulations and changes in regional wind fields play dominant roles in the long-term temporal and spatial trends of extreme precipitation in Nepal. The reduced precipitation extremes in the wet eastern region may somewhat lessen severe flooding and erosion, but the drier western region may face heightened risks in precipitation-related hazards in Nepal.

本文对尼泊尔1971 - 2015年的极端降水模式进行了综合对比分析,尼泊尔是全球气候变化的一个数据稀缺的“热点”地区。我们比较了亚洲降水高分辨率观测数据整合对水资源评价(APHRODITE)的现场观测和网格降水数据。利用11个降水指数分析,高强度(RX1day、R95pTOT、R99pTOT)和频率相关指数(R10 mm、R20 mm)均有所减少,年最大连续干湿日数增加。观测证实了阿芙罗狄蒂号发现的这些趋势,但显示出较小的震级,可能是由于在海拔3000米以下的地点测量的差异。从空间上看,2003年后相对干燥的西部地区变湿润,相对湿润的东部地区变干燥。南亚季风环流的减弱,特别是由韦伯斯特和杨季风指数评估的减弱,与极端降水指数密切相关。高层急流和低层风槽的变化是影响2003年以后极端降水趋势的关键因素。这项研究首次证实了APHRODITE在数据有限的区域内提供时空降水模式的有效性。季风减弱环流和区域风场变化在尼泊尔极端降水的长期时空变化趋势中起主导作用。在潮湿的东部地区,极端降水的减少可能会在一定程度上减轻严重的洪水和侵蚀,但在尼泊尔,干旱的西部地区可能面临与降水有关的灾害的高风险。
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引用次数: 0
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