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Exploiting Machine Learning to Develop Ocean Color Retrievals From the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution Instrument 利用机器学习开发对流层排放海洋颜色检索:污染监测仪器
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1029/2025EA004341
Z. Fasnacht, J. Joiner, M. Bandel, A. Ibrahim, A. Heidinger, M. D. Himes, J. Allen, J. Carr, X. Liu, H. Chong, N. Krotkov

Retrievals of ocean color (OC) properties from space are important for understanding the ocean ecosystem, the carbon cycle, and monitoring events such as harmful algal blooms (HABs). The recently launched U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Venture Instrument, the geostationary Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO), provides a unique opportunity to examine diurnal variability in ocean ecology across coastal waters of North America and prepare for future hyperspectral geostationary OC missions. Although TEMPO does not match the spatial resolution or spectral coverage of planned coastal ocean sensors, such as NASA's Geosynchronous Littoral Imaging and Monitoring Radiometer or the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geostationary Extended Observations Ocean Color Instrument, it provides hourly observations at approximately 5 km over U.S. coastal regions and the Great Lakes. Here, we apply a newly developed atmospheric correction approach based on principal component analysis combined with machine learning (ML) to retrieve OC properties using TEMPO's hyperspectral measurements. Principal component coefficients derived from measured reflectances are used to train a neural network to estimate OC properties, including chlorophyll concentration, informed by collocated physically-based retrievals from MODIS, VIIRS, and Ocean and Land Color Instrument. This ML-based approach complements traditional radiative transfer retrievals, particularly under challenging conditions such as glint and moderate cloud coverage. This approach demonstrates the value of near-real-time OC products, with significant potential for monitoring HABs and transient oceanic phenomena.

从太空中获取海洋颜色(OC)特性对于了解海洋生态系统、碳循环和监测有害藻华(HABs)等事件具有重要意义。最近发射的美国国家航空航天局(NASA)地球风险仪器,地球同步对流层排放:污染监测(TEMPO),提供了一个独特的机会来检查北美沿海水域海洋生态的日变化,并为未来的高光谱地球同步OC任务做准备。尽管TEMPO的空间分辨率或光谱覆盖范围不及计划中的沿海海洋传感器,如NASA的地球同步沿海成像和监测辐射计或美国国家海洋和大气管理局的地球同步扩展观测海洋颜色仪器,但它可以提供美国沿海地区和五大湖上空约5公里的每小时观测。本文采用一种基于主成分分析与机器学习(ML)相结合的新开发的大气校正方法,利用TEMPO的高光谱测量数据检索OC属性。根据MODIS、VIIRS和海洋与陆地颜色仪器的物理检索结果,利用反射率测量得到的主成分系数来训练神经网络来估计OC属性,包括叶绿素浓度。这种基于ml的方法补充了传统的辐射传输检索,特别是在闪烁和中等云层覆盖等具有挑战性的条件下。这种方法证明了近实时OC产品的价值,在监测赤潮和瞬态海洋现象方面具有巨大的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring the Fractal Properties of Reservoirs for Use in Modeling CCUS Potential 储层分形特性在CCUS电位建模中的应用
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1029/2025EA004718
Mehdi Yaghoobpour, Paul W. J. Glover, Piroska Lorinczi, Wei Wei

The injection of CO2 underground into reservoirs for carbon capture and underground storage (CCUS) is highly sensitive to heterogeneity and anisotropy. Although conventional geological modeling cannot take explicit account of heterogeneity or anisotropy or operate at a resolution that encompasses the small scales at which fluid flow is controlled, advanced fractal reservoir models (AFRMs) can be used. These AFRMs require fractal dimensions and anisotropy ratios for the target reservoir, and these values are unavailable. This paper describes the development, validation, and application of a software tool for measuring reservoir fractal dimensions. The code has been validated extensively using SynFrac data, recognizing four potential sources of systematic error, all of which can be corrected for. The resulting code has been used to measure the fractal dimension of a seismic data cube taken from the Chandon reservoir. The analysis reveals that the reservoir is multifractal with high heterogeneity (fractal dimension) at small scales and lower but still significant heterogeneity at larger scales. The fractal dimension can be calculated as a function of depth, providing a new type of log data that is not specific to a given well but rather specific to an area of seismic data.

地下CO2注入储层进行碳捕获和地下封存(CCUS)对非均质性和各向异性高度敏感。虽然传统的地质建模不能明确考虑非均质性或各向异性,也不能在包括流体流动控制的小尺度的分辨率下操作,但先进的分形油藏模型(afrm)可以使用。这些afrm需要目标储层的分形维数和各向异性比,而这些值是不可用的。本文介绍了储层分形维数测量软件的开发、验证和应用。该代码已使用SynFrac数据进行了广泛验证,识别出四种潜在的系统错误来源,所有这些都可以纠正。所产生的代码已用于测量从Chandon储层采集的地震数据立方体的分形维数。分析表明,储层具有多重分形特征,在小尺度上具有较高的非均质性(分形维数),在大尺度上非均质性虽低但仍显著。分形维数可以作为深度的函数来计算,提供了一种新的测井数据,这种数据不是特定于某口井,而是特定于某一区域的地震数据。
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引用次数: 0
Fluid Processes Highlighted by Temporal Variations of b-Value During Swarms and Aftershocks Sequences in the Ubaye Region (Western Alps, France) 法国西阿尔卑斯Ubaye地区蝗群和余震序列中b值时间变化的流体过程
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1029/2025EA004250
Marion Baques, Clara Duverger, Louis De Barros, Hervé Jomard, Maxime Godano

The b-value from the Gutenberg-Richter law is a crucial parameter in the assessment of seismic hazard. Its temporal variations may also bring useful insights on the processes driving seismicity at depth, even if not yet fully understood. In this paper, we focus on the temporal evolution of the b-value in the Ubaye Region (French Western Alps) which was hit by seismic swarms (2003–2004) and complex sequences with several mainshocks (2012–2015). The swarm-like sequences show a common temporal behavior of b-value characterized by an increase and then a return to the initial level. The temporal b-value pattern for the mainshock-aftershock-like sequences is quite different. After a drop in the b-value that may follow the mainshock, the b-value increases above the background level before going back to it. Moreover, no precursory pattern can be identified before the mainshock. Fluid processes are recognized to play a crucial role in the driving mechanisms of these seismic sequences. Drawing parallel between swarms and aftershock sequences suggests that the b-value depicts fluid-processes in the Ubaye Region seismicity. We propose that b-value shows a complex behavior, with variations due to Coulomb stress-transfer from the mainshock and fluid-pressure processes. Therefore, even with a catalog made at the French national scale, the b-value variations may help to monitor the on-going processes at depth.

古腾堡-里希特定律的b值是评价地震危险性的一个重要参数。它的时间变化也可能对驱动深层地震活动的过程提供有用的见解,即使还没有完全理解。本文以乌巴耶地区(法国西阿尔卑斯山脉)为研究对象,研究了该地区2003-2004年地震群和2012-2015年主震复杂序列的b值演化特征。类群序列的b值具有先增加后恢复到初始水平的共同时间行为。主震-余震序列的时间b值模式是完全不同的。在主震发生后,b值可能会下降,但b值在回升到背景水平之前会上升到背景水平以上。此外,在主震发生之前,没有可以识别的前兆模式。流体过程在这些地震序列的驱动机制中起着至关重要的作用。将地震群与余震序列进行类比,表明b值描述了乌巴耶地区地震活动性中的流体过程。我们认为b值表现出复杂的行为,由于主震和流体压力过程的库仑应力传递而发生变化。因此,即使是在法国国家范围内编制的目录,b值的变化也可能有助于监测深度上正在进行的过程。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring Interdisciplinarity in Geology: A Semantic Analysis Approach 测量地质学的跨学科性:一种语义分析方法
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1029/2025EA004494
Pengfei Li, Yuqing Wang, Na Xu

Interdisciplinarity is essential for addressing complex scientific problems that transcend disciplinary boundaries. Geology leverages methods from diverse domains to drive research innovation. However, quantitative evaluations of interdisciplinary connections between geology and other domains are lacking. Therefore, this study employed bibliometrics and natural language processing to assess the interdisciplinary trajectory of geology by analyzing temporal patterns in citation flows. First, a data set of geology-related publications and their cited references was collected from the Scopus database. Then, a semantic text classification approach, integrating sentence transformers and cosine similarity, was implemented to categorize cited references into eight scientific domains: mathematical and physical science, chemical science, life science, engineering and materials science, earth science, information science, management science, and health science. Longitudinal analysis of the distribution of references across these domains reveals trends in interdisciplinary collaboration over time. Finally, N-gram frequency analysis was performed on reference data associated with high-growth domains to identify specific influential techniques bridging disciplines. The results demonstrate a pronounced increase in interdisciplinarity between geology and information science, especially in applications of artificial intelligence, since 2016, with an average interdisciplinary potential of 0.1484. Key techniques driving this integration include artificial neural networks, logistic regression, support vector machines, etc. Additionally, the eight domains were expanded into 126 sub-disciplines to enable more detailed interdisciplinary analysis. Furthermore, three large language models were employed to verify the reliability of the adopted semantic analysis. The results suggest that our methodology provides robust approaches for quantifying interdisciplinary dynamics and is generalizable to other interdisciplinary fields.

跨学科对于解决超越学科界限的复杂科学问题至关重要。地质学利用不同领域的方法来推动研究创新。然而,缺乏对地质学与其他领域之间跨学科联系的定量评价。因此,本研究采用文献计量学和自然语言处理技术,通过分析被引流的时间模式来评估地质学的跨学科发展轨迹。首先,从Scopus数据库中收集地质相关出版物及其引用文献的数据集。然后,采用语义文本分类方法,结合句子变换和余弦相似度,将被引文献划分为数学与物理科学、化学科学、生命科学、工程与材料科学、地球科学、信息科学、管理科学和健康科学等8个科学领域。对这些领域的参考文献分布的纵向分析揭示了跨学科合作随时间的趋势。最后,对与高增长领域相关的参考数据进行N-gram频率分析,以确定特定的有影响力的技术连接学科。结果表明,自2016年以来,地质与信息科学之间的跨学科性显著增加,特别是在人工智能应用方面,平均跨学科潜力为0.1484。推动这一整合的关键技术包括人工神经网络、逻辑回归、支持向量机等。此外,这8个领域被扩展为126个子学科,以实现更详细的跨学科分析。此外,采用三个大型语言模型来验证所采用的语义分析的可靠性。结果表明,我们的方法为量化跨学科动态提供了强有力的方法,并可推广到其他跨学科领域。
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引用次数: 0
Space Science Research in Africa: Publication Trends, Citation Analysis, and Collaborative Patterns 非洲空间科学研究:出版趋势、引文分析和合作模式
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1029/2025EA004254
Babatunde O. Adebesin, Akeem B. Rabiu, Bolarinwa J. Adekoya, Elijah O. Falayi, Shola J. Adebiyi, Stephen O. Ikubanni, Tomiwa Akinyemi, Racheal F. Oloruntola, Mathew A. Duhunpar, Ayooluwa Aregbesola

Content assessment of research metrics plays a pivotal role in the evaluation of scientific productivity globally, especially in a selected field and region. Data from 28 Space-Science Journals spanning 2014–2023, from the Scopus-database, based on African publication output, citations, views-counts, and Field-Weighted-Citation-Impact (Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI)) metrics were used. The results revealed that Africa contributes only 3.2% of the world publication volume in Space Science. From the African output, South-Africa leads with 40.9%, followed by Nigeria (14.3%) and Egypt (13.6%). These three countries contribute ≈70% of the African publication volume. For the citation metrics, Africa contributed 5.0% of the world volume. Publication in Journal of Advances in Space Research is more sought after by African Authors, while Astrophysics and Space Science journal recorded the highest African-to-world publication output percentage (11.3%). African authors show a preference for publishing in Journals with high percentile score and citation rates. Citation-wise, South-Africa accounted for 64% of the total volume from Africa. Only seven countries present citation metrics above 1% of the total volume. South Africa (46%), Morocco (10%), Egypt (9%), Namibia (7%), and Nigeria (7%) are the five countries with publication View counts of above 4,000. Only Ethiopia and South-Africa had FWCI above the world average, with values of 1.47 and 1.25 respectively. North Africa region dominated the appearance list of the 10 top countries in publication, citation, counts views and FWCI while Southern Africa leads in volume. The work further situates the uniqueness/global acceptance of the Scopus and Web-of-Science databases as tools for research publication assessment.

研究指标的内容评估在全球科学生产力评估中起着关键作用,特别是在选定的领域和地区。使用了来自scopus数据库的2014-2023年间28种空间科学期刊的数据,基于非洲出版物产出、引用、浏览量和场加权引用影响(Field-Weighted引文影响(FWCI))指标。结果显示,非洲仅贡献了世界空间科学出版物的3.2%。从非洲产量来看,南非以40.9%领先,其次是尼日利亚(14.3%)和埃及(13.6%)。这三个国家的出版物约占非洲出版物总量的70%。在引用指标方面,非洲贡献了世界总量的5.0%。非洲作者更希望在《空间研究进展杂志》上发表文章,而《天体物理学和空间科学》杂志的非洲对世界的出版物产出比例最高(11.3%)。非洲作者倾向于在高百分位分数和高引用率的期刊上发表文章。从引用次数来看,南非占非洲总访问量的64%。只有7个国家的引用指标超过总量的1%。南非(46%)、摩洛哥(10%)、埃及(9%)、纳米比亚(7%)和尼日利亚(7%)是发表浏览量超过4000次的五个国家。只有埃塞俄比亚和南非的FWCI高于世界平均水平,分别为1.47和1.25。北非地区在出版物、引用、访问量和FWCI的前10名国家中占据主导地位,而南部非洲在数量上领先。这项工作进一步表明了Scopus和Web-of-Science数据库作为研究出版物评估工具的独特性/全球接受度。
{"title":"Space Science Research in Africa: Publication Trends, Citation Analysis, and Collaborative Patterns","authors":"Babatunde O. Adebesin,&nbsp;Akeem B. Rabiu,&nbsp;Bolarinwa J. Adekoya,&nbsp;Elijah O. Falayi,&nbsp;Shola J. Adebiyi,&nbsp;Stephen O. Ikubanni,&nbsp;Tomiwa Akinyemi,&nbsp;Racheal F. Oloruntola,&nbsp;Mathew A. Duhunpar,&nbsp;Ayooluwa Aregbesola","doi":"10.1029/2025EA004254","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EA004254","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Content assessment of research metrics plays a pivotal role in the evaluation of scientific productivity globally, especially in a selected field and region. Data from 28 Space-Science Journals spanning 2014–2023, from the Scopus-database, based on African publication output, citations, views-counts, and Field-Weighted-Citation-Impact (Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI)) metrics were used. The results revealed that Africa contributes only 3.2% of the world publication volume in Space Science. From the African output, South-Africa leads with 40.9%, followed by Nigeria (14.3%) and Egypt (13.6%). These three countries contribute ≈70% of the African publication volume. For the citation metrics, Africa contributed 5.0% of the world volume. Publication in Journal of Advances in Space Research is more sought after by African Authors, while Astrophysics and Space Science journal recorded the highest African-to-world publication output percentage (11.3%). African authors show a preference for publishing in Journals with high percentile score and citation rates. Citation-wise, South-Africa accounted for 64% of the total volume from Africa. Only seven countries present citation metrics above 1% of the total volume. South Africa (46%), Morocco (10%), Egypt (9%), Namibia (7%), and Nigeria (7%) are the five countries with publication View counts of above 4,000. Only Ethiopia and South-Africa had FWCI above the world average, with values of 1.47 and 1.25 respectively. North Africa region dominated the appearance list of the 10 top countries in publication, citation, counts views and FWCI while Southern Africa leads in volume. The work further situates the uniqueness/global acceptance of the Scopus and Web-of-Science databases as tools for research publication assessment.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EA004254","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145521929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Diurnal Variations of the Electron Density in the Nighttime Lower Ionosphere Derived From a Massive Data Set of Tweek Atmospherics 夜间电离层下层电子密度的日变化——来自一个巨大的两周大气数据集
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1029/2025EA004682
Mao Zhang, Gaopeng Lu, Ziyi Wang, Zhengwei Cheng, Steven A. Cummer, Yazhou Chen

Tweek atmospherics are ELF/VLF pulse signals with frequency dispersion characteristics that originate from lightning discharges. Previous research has employed tweek atmospherics to examine long-term trends in the lower ionosphere; however, their utility in capturing diurnal-scale variations has been largely unexplored. Based on the machine learning method, we statistically study a massive data set of 48,395 first-order tweeks and obtain the diurnal variations of the nighttime lower ionosphere with a time resolution of 15 min. The variation amplitude of the mean reflection height (Δh ${Delta }h$) in a single night could reach 7 km for the first-order tweeks, with an electron density variation (ΔNe ${Delta }{N}_{e}$) of 2.5 cm−3. By comparison with the ionosonde observations from Wallops Island station and the incoherent scatter radar (ISR) observations from Millstone Hill station, we find that the correlation between the tweek-inferred lower ionosphere and the F2-layer electron density varies systematically with geomagnetic activity. In addition, the state of the tweek-derived lower ionosphere is also related to the E-region ionosphere (110–130 km), suggesting the presence of localized coupling process in this altitude range. Moreover, the comparison provides independent validation of our inversion technique with tweek atmospherics and confirms its potential to build a fully automated monitoring system for the nighttime lower ionosphere.

双周大气是由雷电放电产生的具有频散特性的ELF/VLF脉冲信号。以前的研究采用两周大气来研究电离层下部的长期趋势;然而,它们在捕捉日尺度变化方面的效用在很大程度上尚未得到探索。基于机器学习方法,对48395个一阶周的海量数据集进行统计研究,得到了时间分辨率为15 min的夜间下电离层的日变化。夜间平均反射高度(Δ h$ {Delta}h$)的变化幅度在一阶周内可达7 km;电子密度变化(Δ N e ${Delta}{N}_{e}$)为2.5 cm−3。通过与Wallops岛站的电离层探空观测和Millstone Hill站的非相干散射雷达(ISR)观测结果的比较,我们发现两周推断的低层电离层与f2层电子密度的相关性随着地磁活动的变化而有系统的变化。此外,低电离层的状态也与e区电离层(110 ~ 130 km)有关,表明在该高度范围内存在局域耦合过程。此外,对比提供了我们的两周大气反演技术的独立验证,并证实了其建立夜间低电离层全自动监测系统的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Cosmic Ray Counting Variability From Water-Cherenkov Detectors as a Proxy of Stratospheric Conditions in Antarctica 水-切伦科夫探测器的宇宙射线计数变异性作为南极洲平流层条件的代理
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1029/2025EA004298
N. A. Santos, N. Gómez, S. Dasso, A. M. Gulisano, L. Rubinstein, M. Pereira, O. Areso, for the LAGO Collaboration

This work examines atmospheric effects on cosmic ray counts observed by a Water-Cherenkov detector at the Argentine Antarctic Marambio Station. We analyze the influence of ground-level barometric pressure and geopotential height at various pressure levels on daily particle rates, finding the strongest association at 100 hPa, linked to effective muon production. This relationship persists across low and high frequencies relative to the annual wave. Using barometric pressure and 100 hPa geopotential height, we developed a multiple linear regression model to describe atmospheric variations in cosmic ray flux, adjusted by meteorological seasons. By inverting the model, we estimate 100 hPa geopotential height from surface observations and validate against ERA5 reanalysis. The model performs best in spring, with reduced precision in other seasons. Further improvements in the signal-to-noise ratio could enhance model performance. Even with these considerations, this approach offers a practical and cost-effective method to track 100 hPa geopotential height variability in Antarctica through daily surface observations from Water-Cherenkov detectors, providing an important resource for Antarctic atmospheric studies.

这项工作研究了大气对阿根廷南极马拉比奥站的水-切伦科夫探测器观测到的宇宙射线计数的影响。我们分析了不同压力水平下的地面气压和位势高度对日粒子率的影响,发现100 hPa时最强的关联与有效的介子产生有关。相对于年波,这种关系在低频率和高频率上持续存在。利用大气压力和100 hPa位势高度,建立了宇宙射线通量随气象季节调整的多元线性回归模型。通过反演模型,我们从地面观测中估计了100 hPa的位势高度,并与ERA5再分析进行了验证。该模型在春季表现最好,其他季节精度较低。进一步提高信噪比可以提高模型的性能。即使考虑到这些因素,这种方法也提供了一种实用和经济的方法,通过Water-Cherenkov探测器的日常地面观测来跟踪南极洲100 hPa的位势高度变化,为南极大气研究提供了重要的资源。
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引用次数: 0
A Probabilistic Model for Global EMIC Wave Activity Using Van Allen Probes Observations 利用范艾伦探测器观测全球主波活动的概率模型
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-11-13 DOI: 10.1029/2025EA004633
Sung Jun Noh, Steven K. Morley, Misa M. Cowee, Vania K. Jordanova

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves play a key role in radiation belt dynamics through resonant interactions. However, their low occurrence probability, high variability, and spatial intermittency pose challenges for accurate modeling. In this study, we present a machine learning (ML)-based global EMIC wave model built on the entire data set from the Van Allen Probes mission. To capture the distinct statistical characteristics of wave occurrence and amplitude, the model is separated into two modules: an occurrence model trained using ML techniques, and a wave amplitude model sampled from observed probability distributions. The input parameters are limited to real-time or predictable variables to ensure practical applicability. Our model shows strong performance across the entire test set and demonstrates improved predictive capability over a baseline random occurrence model, particularly during quiet geomagnetic conditions. Evaluation during both quiet and active periods confirms the model's ability to represent the clustered and intermittent nature of EMIC wave activity. Furthermore, the model provides global estimates of wave power, enabling integration with radiation belt electron data and showing signatures consistent with wave-induced scattering. We found a good correlation between the global wave activity from the model and relativistic electron observation by Van Allen Probes, regardless of the availability of in situ wave observations. The modular structure of the model also allows for straightforward expansion for additional wave properties, such as wave frequency, which can be modeled independently. This flexible, event-sensitive approach offers a promising framework for data-driven radiation belt simulations and space weather applications.

电磁离子回旋波通过共振相互作用在辐射带动力学中起着关键作用。然而,它们的低发生概率、高变异性和空间间断性给精确建模带来了挑战。在这项研究中,我们提出了一个基于机器学习(ML)的全球主波模型,该模型建立在范艾伦探测器任务的整个数据集上。为了捕捉波浪发生和振幅的明显统计特征,该模型被分为两个模块:使用ML技术训练的发生率模型和从观测概率分布中采样的振幅模型。输入参数限制为实时或可预测的变量,以确保实际适用性。我们的模型在整个测试集中表现出色,并且在基线随机发生模型的预测能力上有所提高,特别是在安静的地磁条件下。在平静期和活跃期的评估都证实了该模型能够代表主震波活动的聚集性和间歇性。此外,该模型提供了波浪能的全球估计,能够与辐射带电子数据集成,并显示与波致散射一致的特征。我们发现,无论是否存在原位波观测,该模型的全球波活动与范艾伦探测器的相对论性电子观测之间都存在良好的相关性。该模型的模块化结构还允许直接扩展额外的波属性,如波频率,可以独立建模。这种灵活的、事件敏感的方法为数据驱动的辐射带模拟和空间天气应用提供了一个有前途的框架。
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引用次数: 0
Day-to-Day Temperature Variability in Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Data Over China 中国气象观测和再分析资料的日温度变化
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1029/2025EA004573
Xuejie Wang, Kaicun Wang, Yuna Mao, Guocan Wu

Temperature variability on the synoptic scale is most directly related to human perception, and requires more attention from scientists and researchers. This study quantifies the day-to-day temperature variability (DTD) as the absolute value of the difference between the air temperatures from two consecutive days, and analyzes the spatiotemporal variations using meteorological station observations and four reanalysis data sets. Across China, the annual cycle of DTD ranges from 1.4 to 2.5°C with distinct seasonality: spring and winter exhibit a larger DTD magnitude than summer. There are large heterogeneities among different river basin regions, with the highest annual mean DTD observed in the Songliao River Basin (2.18°C) and the lowest in the Southwest River Basin (1.08°C). For the reanalysis data sets, the DTD values from JRA55 are closest to the observations, with a largest correlation of 0.98 in Southwest River Basin and smallest RMSE of 0.01°C in Yangtze River Basin. The DTD trends from JRA55 and ERA5 are comparable to those from the observational data. Further analysis of the top 1, 5 and 10 day-to-day temperature variabilities (DTDmax1, DTDmax5, DTDmax10) reveals that these large DTD values are characterized by rapid cooling, with DTDmax1 exhibiting a fluctuation range of 3.29°C–14.59°C. Additionally, DTDmax1 occurs mainly in spring and winter, with the occurrence date becoming earlier (−8.8 days/10y, p < 0.05) over the study area between 1980 and 2022. These results enhance our understanding of temperature changes at the synoptic scale, providing better services for warning and mitigating disasters.

天气尺度上的温度变率与人类感知最直接相关,需要引起科学家和研究人员的更多关注。本文将逐日温度变率(DTD)量化为连续2天气温差的绝对值,并利用气象站观测资料和4套再分析资料分析了逐日温度变率的时空变化。在中国各地,DTD的年周期在1.4 ~ 2.5°C之间,具有明显的季节性,春季和冬季的DTD幅度大于夏季。不同流域区域间存在较大的异质性,年平均DTD在松辽流域最高(2.18°C),在西南流域最低(1.08°C)。对于再分析数据集,JRA55的DTD值与观测值最接近,西南流域的相关系数最大,为0.98,长江流域的RMSE最小,为0.01°C。JRA55和ERA5的DTD趋势与观测资料相当。进一步分析前1、5和10日温度变化(DTDmax1、DTDmax5、DTDmax10),发现这些大的DTD值具有快速冷却的特征,其中DTDmax1的波动范围为3.29°C - 14.59°C。1980 - 2022年,研究区DTDmax1主要出现在春冬季,出现日期变早(- 8.8天/10y, p < 0.05)。这些结果增强了我们对天气尺度温度变化的认识,为预警和减灾提供了更好的服务。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring Machine Learning Capabilities for High Spatiotemporal Resolution Storm Surge Reconstructions 探索高时空分辨率风暴潮重建的机器学习能力
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1029/2024EA004161
Qi Feng, Taoyong Jin, Lianjun Yang, Jiancheng Li

In storm surge (SS) simulation, data-driven methods can establish the relationship between predictor variables and the predictand, enabling long-term SS level reconstructions. Here, using the U.S. East Coast as an example, we explored the capabilities of four machine learning algorithms, namely Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) in reconstructing hourly SS levels from 1979 to 2018 under an all-site modeling framework. Four atmospheric parameters, time index, and tide gauge coordinates from 51 tide gauges are used as predictors. The model performance was evaluated at both the tide gauge and coastal scales. Results indicate that LightGBM and XGBoost models outperform ANN and LSTM in SS reconstructions, with XGBoost showing better overall performance, especially for extreme SSs and historical extreme events. XGBoost can capture the temporal evolution of SSs with higher accuracy, producing reconstructions comparable to observations under the all-site modeling framework. The model interpretability analysis focusing on XGBoost reveals that the spatial distribution of feature importance varies for each predictor. Mean sea level pressure and the 10 m eastward wind component are the two most important predictors, followed by time index, latitude, and longitude under the all-site modeling framework and selected stations. These results indicate that data-driven models under this framework have the potential to capture region-specific and physically reasonable relationships between SS levels and atmospheric drivers.

在风暴潮模拟中,数据驱动方法可以建立预测变量与预测值之间的关系,从而实现长期的风暴潮水平重建。本文以美国东海岸为例,探讨了人工神经网络(ANN)、长短期记忆(LSTM)、光梯度增强机(LightGBM)和极限梯度增强(XGBoost)四种机器学习算法在全站点建模框架下重建1979 - 2018年每小时SS水平的能力。四个大气参数、时间指数和51个潮汐测量仪的坐标被用作预测。在潮汐计和海岸尺度上对模型的性能进行了评价。结果表明,LightGBM和XGBoost模型在SS重建中优于ANN和LSTM,其中XGBoost模型在极端SS和历史极端事件重建中表现出更好的整体性能。XGBoost可以以更高的精度捕获SSs的时间演变,产生可与全站点建模框架下的观测相媲美的重建结果。以XGBoost为中心的模型可解释性分析表明,各预测因子的特征重要性空间分布各不相同。在全站点模式框架和所选站点下,平均海平面气压和10 m东风分量是最重要的预测因子,其次是时间指数、纬度和经度。这些结果表明,在该框架下的数据驱动模式有可能捕获特定区域和物理合理的SS水平与大气驱动因素之间的关系。
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Earth and Space Science
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