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Intermediate Wave Scale Rocky Bottom Variability for the Nearshore Along California 加利福尼亚近岸的中波尺度岩底可变性
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1029/2023EA003475
Jamie MacMahan, Ed Thornton, Stef Dressel, Mike Cook
<div> <section> <p>Approximately 75% of the world's and California's shores are rocky. Rocky shores are of biological interest owing to their diverse and productive species assemblages, where waves and currents play a critical role in larval dispersal and recruitment. Surface variability for nearshore <span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mrow> <mn>5</mn> <mo>⪅</mo> <mi>d</mi> <mi>e</mi> <mi>p</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>h</mi> <mo>⪅</mo> <mn>60</mn> <mspace></mspace> <mi>m</mi> </mrow> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <annotation> $(5lessapprox mathrm{d}mathrm{e}mathrm{p}mathrm{t}mathrm{h}lessapprox 60hspace*{.5em}mathrm{m})$</annotation> </semantics></math> rocky bottoms at intermediate wave scale <span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <mfenced> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo>/</mo> <mn>750</mn> <mo><</mo> <mi>k</mi> <mo><</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>/</mo> <mn>4</mn> <mspace></mspace> <msup> <mi>m</mi> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </msup> </mrow> </mfenced> </mrow> <annotation> $left(1/750< k< 1/4hspace*{.5em}{mathrm{m}}^{-1}right)$</annotation> </semantics></math> is described for the first time using existing high-resolution bathymetric surveys extending the length of California. The vertical variability of rocky shores is three times larger than measured coral reefs at the reef scale of <span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo>/</mo> <mn>64</mn> <mo><</mo>
全世界和加利福尼亚州约有 75% 的海岸是岩石海岸。岩石海岸因其多样且富饶的物种组合而备受生物界关注,其中波浪和海流对幼虫的扩散和繁殖起着至关重要的作用。Surface variability for nearshore ( 5 ⪅ d e p t h ⪅ 60 m ) $(5lessapprox mathrm{d}mathrm{e}mathrm{p}mathrm{t}mathrm{h}lessapprox 60hspace*{.5em}mathrm{m})$ rocky bottoms at intermediate wave scale 1 / 750 < k < 1 / 4 m − 1 $left(1/750< k< 1/4hspace*{.5em}{mathrm{m}}^{-1}right)$ is described for the first time using existing high-resolution bathymetric surveys extending the length of California.在 1 / 64 < k < 1 / 4 m - 1 $1/64 < k < 1/4hspace*{.5em}{mathrm{m}}^{-1}$ 的珊瑚礁尺度下,岩石海岸的垂直变化比测量的珊瑚礁大三倍。经过归一化处理的集合平均波数高程谱具有自相似性,至少有两个负幂律斜率区域,1.3 表示粗糙的底部,2.75 的高波数表示较平滑的凹陷。岩质海底的集合统计量似乎是各向同性的,因为它们的跨岸和沿岸方差以及波数斜率谱在统计上是相等的。各向同性的原因是波浪随时间的侵蚀只发生在近岸海洋区域。为沿岩石海岸的波浪和海流驱动的水动力模型开发了海底边界条件 G‾z ′ ${overline{G}}_{{z}^{prime }}$ 的傅立叶谱表示法。相对于重建剖面和表面的观测光谱数据,该模型的误差小于 2%。
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引用次数: 0
Faint Space Target Information Extraction Based on Small Aperture Telescope in Complex Background 复杂背景下基于小孔径望远镜的微小空间目标信息提取
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1029/2023EA003404
Ping Jiang, Yaoqin Xie, Sijia Wu, Tangsheng Wang, Yalan Li

There are many problems in space debris monitoring with ground-based telescopes, such as too many stars in the same field of view, uneven background and optical distortion in the optical system. We propose a two-stage weak debris detection algorithm. In the first stage, wavelet transform is used to extract different components of three frames of images, and the median of corresponding components of the images is taken respectively to eliminate the influence of stars. In the second stage, an improved version of the faint space target extraction based on principal component analysis. The algorithm uses a smooth-detection idea to extract target information. Based on a 150 mm aperture telescope, we improved the existing method of faint space debris extraction based on principal component analysis by introducing the smooth-detection idea, and transformed the target detection problem into the separation problem of sparse matrix and low-rank matrix. We applied a certain preprocessing consisting of wavelet-based star removal and median pre-filtering to keep as little noise and other contaminants as possible. After experimental measurements by observers, the algorithm demonstrated advanced detection capabilities on multiple indicators.

使用地面望远镜进行空间碎片监测存在许多问题,如同一视场中的恒星过多、背景不均匀以及光学系统的光学失真等。我们提出了一种两阶段弱碎片检测算法。在第一阶段,利用小波变换提取三帧图像的不同分量,并分别取图像对应分量的中值来消除恒星的影响。第二阶段是基于主成分分析的微弱空间目标提取改进版。该算法采用平滑检测思想提取目标信息。基于 150 毫米口径望远镜,我们对现有的基于主成分分析的微弱空间碎片提取方法进行了改进,引入了平滑检测思想,将目标检测问题转化为稀疏矩阵和低秩矩阵的分离问题。我们采用了一定的预处理方法,包括基于小波的除星和中值预滤波,以尽可能减少噪声和其他污染物。经过观测者的实验测量,该算法在多个指标上都表现出了先进的探测能力。
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引用次数: 0
Ensemble Based Estimation of Wet Refractivity Indices Using a Functional Model Approach 使用函数模型法进行基于集合的湿折射率指数估算
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1029/2023EA003453
Masoud Dehvari, Saeed Farzaneh, Ehsan Forootan

The estimation of the wet refractivity indices is crucial for applications like weather predictions or improving the accuracy of real-time positioning techniques. Traditionally, solving the inverse tomography problem to estimate these atmospheric parameters has been challenging due to its ill-posed nature and high computational demands, necessitating additional constraints. To overcome these challenges, the data assimilation method is proposed here to integrate Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations into a background model. In this study, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) was served as the assimilation core to reduce the computational load and to enable the epoch-wise estimation of wet refractivity indices. The Global Pressure and Temperature 3 (GPT3w) model was utilized as the background, and wet refractivity indices at each epoch were transformed into B-spline coefficients, representing state vector parameters. Subsequently, GNSS derived zenith wet delay (ZWD) values were integrated into the model using the EnKF method. The study's region encompassed the western parts of Europe and incorporated approximately 893 GNSS stations. Evaluation spanned from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2017. The estimated wet refractivity indices from the proposed method were compared with observations from 16 existing radiosonde stations, radio occultation data, and ZWD values from the 47 selected GNSS test stations. Additionally, calculated ZWD values, resulting from the integration of wet refractivity indices, were compared to the ZWD values from 47 test stations in the study region. The numerical results demonstrated that the proposed method achieved a root mean square error value of approximately 2.6 ppm, which was nearly 49% and 18% lower than that of the considered empirical and numerical atmospheric models, respectively.

湿折射率指数的估算对于天气预报或提高实时定位技术精度等应用至关重要。传统上,解决反层析问题以估算这些大气参数具有挑战性,这是因为它的不确定性和高计算要求需要额外的约束条件。为了克服这些挑战,本文提出了数据同化方法,将全球导航卫星系统(GNSS)观测数据整合到背景模型中。在这项研究中,将集合卡尔曼滤波器(EnKF)作为同化核心,以减少计算负荷,并实现湿折射率指数的历时估算。利用全球气压和温度 3(GPT3w)模型作为背景,将每个历元的湿折射率指数转换为 B 样条系数,代表状态矢量参数。随后,利用 EnKF 方法将全球导航卫星系统得出的天顶湿延迟(ZWD)值整合到模型中。研究区域包括欧洲西部,约有 893 个全球导航卫星系统台站。评估时间跨度为 2017 年 1 月 1 日至 2017 年 12 月 31 日。将拟议方法估算出的湿折射率指数与 16 个现有无线电探空仪观测站的观测数据、无线电掩星数据以及 47 个选定全球导航卫星系统测试站的 ZWD 值进行了比较。此外,还将湿折射率指数积分计算得出的 ZWD 值与研究区域 47 个测试站的 ZWD 值进行了比较。数值结果表明,拟议方法的均方根误差值约为 2.6 ppm,比所考虑的经验模型和数值大气模型的均方根误差值分别低近 49% 和 18%。
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引用次数: 0
Improvements to EXSIM in Ground Motion Simulation for Earthquakes Explained by Double-Corner-Frequency Source Model EXSIM 在双角频源模型解释地震的地动模拟中的改进
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-10-13 DOI: 10.1029/2024EA003797
Wanjun Ma, Zhinan Xie, Lei Fu, Zhendong Shan, Jianqi Lu, Lihua Tang, Xubin Zhang

The stochastic EXtended finite-fault ground-motion SIMulation algorithm (EXSIM) has been widely applied in simulating and predicting broadband strong ground-motion. However, an increasingly number of researchers have found that EXSIM may overestimate ground-motions at low frequencies for some large-magnitude earthquakes and/or thrust earthquakes, for which the far-field source model has been explained by a double-corner-frequency model. Despite controversy, the double-corner-frequency model is now being accepted as one of the main categories of the far-field source model. This study demonstrated the limited applicability of EXSIM to earthquakes explained by the double-corner-frequency source model, by presenting the equivalence between motions generated by EXSIM and those generated by EXSIM's point-source version, SMSIM, which adopts the ω-square single-corner-frequency model. Furthermore, two improvements to EXSIM have been proposed: (a) the incorporation of the asperity-distributed stress-drop compound faults model and (b) the hybrid application of EXSIM with the proposed model. The effects of the two improvements have been verified by comparing EXSIM-generating motions with recorded ground-motions for the 2013 Mw 6.7 Lushan thrust earthquake. Significantly, consistent simulation accuracy has been achieved across high- and low-frequency bands as well as in far- and near-fields. The consistent accuracy of the improved EXSIM in simulating high- and low-frequency ground motions enables its direct and independent application to broadband ground motion simulations. Moreover, the first validation of this consistent accuracy in both near- and far-field scenarios further enhances its application in earthquake engineering practices.

随机扩展有限断层地动模拟算法(EXSIM)已被广泛应用于模拟和预测宽带强地动。然而,越来越多的研究人员发现,对于一些大震级地震和/或推力地震,EXSIM 可能会高估低频地动。尽管存在争议,但双角频率模型目前已被接受为远场震源模型的主要类别之一。本研究通过展示 EXSIM 生成的地震运动与 EXSIM 的点源版本 SMSIM(采用 ω 方形单角频率模型)生成的地震运动之间的等效性,证明 EXSIM 对双角频率源模型解释的地震的适用性有限。此外,还对 EXSIM 提出了两点改进建议:(a) 加入表面分布应力下降复合断层模型;(b) 将 EXSIM 与提出的模型混合应用。通过比较 EXSIM 生成的地震运动和 2013 年 6.7 级芦山推力地震的地面运动记录,验证了这两项改进的效果。值得注意的是,高、低频段以及远、近场都实现了一致的模拟精度。改进后的 EXSIM 在模拟高频和低频地动时具有一致的精度,这使其能够直接、独立地应用于宽带地动模拟。此外,EXSIM 在近场和远场情况下的一致精度首次得到验证,进一步加强了其在地震工程实践中的应用。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating Subsurface Properties of the Shallow Lunar Crust Using Seismic Interferometry on Synthetic and Recorded Data 利用合成数据和记录数据的地震干涉测量法研究月球浅壳的次表层特性
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1029/2024EA003742
S. Keil, H. Igel, M. Schimmel, F. Lindner, F. Bernauer

In the past few years, the remarkable progress of commercially operated spacecrafts, the success with reusable rocket engines, as well as the international competition to explore space, has led to a substantial acceleration of activities in the design and preparation of ambitious future lunar missions. In the search for ice and/or cavities imaging the shallow subsurface structure is of vital importance. Hereby, previous studies have shown that seismic interferometry is a promising method to investigate the subsurface properties from passive lunar data. In this study, we want to evaluate the potential of this method further by examining the required duration of seismic measurements and the influence of scattering on the Green's function retrieval. Therefore, we applied seismic interferometry to both measured Apollo 17 data and synthetic data. Our findings indicate that, under optimal conditions, a few hours of data are sufficient when using the method of time-scaled phase-weighted stack (ts-PWS). However, this strongly depends on the inter-station distance, the orientation toward the principal noise sources, and the timing of the measurement during the lunar cycle. Additionally, we were able to reproduce the measured data using numerical simulations in 2D. The synthetic results show that scattering effects clearly influence the Green's function extraction, especially for larger station distances.

在过去的几年里,商业运营的航天器取得了显著的进步,可重复使用的火箭发动机取得了成功,探索太空的国际竞争也促使设计和准备未来雄心勃勃的月球任务的活动大大加快。在寻找冰和/或空洞的过程中,地表下浅层结构的成像至关重要。因此,以往的研究表明,地震干涉测量法是利用被动月球数据研究地表下特性的一种很有前途的方法。在本研究中,我们希望通过研究地震测量所需的持续时间以及散射对格林函数检索的影响,进一步评估这种方法的潜力。因此,我们将地震干涉测量法应用于阿波罗 17 号的测量数据和合成数据。我们的研究结果表明,在最佳条件下,使用时间尺度相位加权叠加(ts-PWS)方法,几个小时的数据就足够了。然而,这在很大程度上取决于站间距离、主要噪声源的方向以及月球周期中的测量时间。此外,我们还利用二维数值模拟重现了测量数据。合成结果表明,散射效应明显影响了格林函数的提取,尤其是在测站距离较大的情况下。
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引用次数: 0
Bias-Eliminating Techniques in the Computation of Power Spectra for Characterizing Gravity Waves: Interleaved Methods and Error Analyses 用于描述重力波的功率谱计算中的消除偏差技术:交错方法和误差分析
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1029/2023EA003499
Jackson Jandreau, Xinzhao Chu

Observational data inherently contain noise which manifests as uncertainties in the measured parameters and creates positive biases or noise floors in second-order products like variances, fluxes, and spectra. Historical methods estimate and subsequently subtract noise floors, but struggle with accuracy. Gardner and Chu (2020, doi.org/10.1364/AO.400375) proposed an interleaved data processing method, which inherently eliminates biases from variances and fluxes, and suggested that the method could also eliminate noise floors of power spectra. We investigate the interleaved method for spectral analysis of atmospheric waves through theoretical studies, forward modeling, and demonstration with lidar data. Our work shows that calculating the cross-power spectral density (CPSD) from two interleaved subsamples does reduce the spectral noise floor significantly. However, only the Co-PSD (the real part of CPSD) eliminates the noise floor completely, while taking the absolute magnitude of CPSD adds a reduced noise floor back to the spectrum when the sample number is finite. This reduced noise floor can be further minimized through averaging over more observations, completely different from traditional spectrum calculations whose noise floor cannot be reduced by incorporating more samples. We demonstrate the first application of the interleaved method to spectral data, successfully eliminating the noise floor using the Co-PSD in a forward model and in lidar observations of the vertical wavenumber of gravity waves at McMurdo, Antarctica. This high accuracy is gained by sacrificing precision due to photon-count splitting, requiring additional observations to counter this effect. We provide quantitative assessment of accuracy and precision as well as application recommendations.

观测数据本身包含噪声,表现为测量参数的不确定性,并在方差、通量和光谱等二阶产品中产生正偏差或噪声底。历史方法可以估计并随后减去噪声下限,但在准确性方面却很困难。Gardner 和 Chu(2020,doi.org/10.1364/AO.400375)提出了一种交错数据处理方法,该方法从本质上消除了来自方差和通量的偏差,并提出该方法还能消除功率谱的噪底。我们通过理论研究、正向建模和激光雷达数据演示,对用于大气波谱分析的交错法进行了研究。我们的工作表明,从两个交错子样本计算交叉功率谱密度(CPSD)确实能显著降低频谱本底噪声。然而,只有共功率谱密度(CPSD 的实部)能完全消除本底噪声,而当样本数有限时,取 CPSD 的绝对值则会将降低的本底噪声加回频谱。通过对更多的观测数据进行平均,可以进一步降低噪底,这与传统的频谱计算完全不同,传统的频谱计算无法通过加入更多的样本来降低噪底。我们展示了交错法在频谱数据中的首次应用,在一个前向模型和南极洲麦克默多重力波垂直波长的激光雷达观测中使用 Co-PSD 成功消除了噪底。这种高精度是以牺牲光子计数分裂造成的精度为代价的,需要额外的观测来抵消这种影响。我们提供了准确度和精确度的定量评估以及应用建议。
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引用次数: 0
The Significance of the Long-Wavelength Correction for Studies of Baroclinic Tides With SWOT 长波校正对利用 SWOT 研究巴氏潮汐的意义
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1029/2024EA003677
Edward D. Zaron

The long-wavelength correction (LWC) of SWOT data is intended to reduce errors related to the stability of the SWOT antenna and its attitude in orbit. The algorithms used to compute the LWC utilize SWOT KaRIn sea surface-height (SSH) measurements and additional data, and the LWC may absorb geophysical SSH into the correction. Different LWC algorithms are used on the L2 and L3 SWOT products, which are analyzed here during the 1 day repeat (Cal/Val) mission phase lasting approximately 100 days. During this mission phase the SSH anomaly (SSHA) computed using the L3 LWC is much more realistic than the L2 LWC, as shown here by comparing spatial statistics of the L2 and L3 products. The L3 LWC algorithm is nonlinear insofar as it depends on second-order statistics of the SSHA and multi-satellite SSHA differences, making it difficult to quantify the extent to which it could absorb baroclinic tidal signals. To overcome this difficulty, a proxy L3 LWC algorithm is developed which mimics the L3 LWC but is strictly linear in the SSHA. The proxy LWC is applied to both idealized waveforms and to the predicted internal tide available on the products, and it is found to absorb 1% or less of the signal variance, leading to corresponding pointwise errors of 10% or less. Because the errors are at longer wavelengths and are significantly smaller amplitude than internal tide signals, the LWC impact on the measurement and interpretation of internal tides with SWOT is expected to be negligible in most applications.

SWOT 数据的长波校正(LWC)旨在减少与 SWOT 天线的稳定性及其在轨姿态有关的误差。用于计算长波校正的算法利用 SWOT KaRIn 海面高度(SSH)测量值和附加数据,长波校正可能会将地球物理 SSH 吸收到校正中。L2 和 L3 SWOT 产品使用了不同的 LWC 算法,这里分析的是在大约 100 天的 1 天重复(Cal/Val)任务阶段。在这一任务阶段,使用 L3 低纬度预报算法计算的 SSH 异常(SSHA)比 L2 低纬度预报算法更真实,这里通过比较 L2 和 L3 产品的空间统计数据来说明这一点。L3 LWC 算法是非线性的,因为它依赖于 SSHA 和多卫星 SSHA 差异的二阶统计量,因此很难量化它能在多大程度上吸收气压潮汐信号。为了克服这一困难,开发了一种替代 L3 LWC 算法,该算法模仿 L3 LWC,但与 SSHA 严格成线性关系。代用 LWC 既适用于理想化波形,也适用于产品上的预测内潮,结果发现它能吸收 1%或更少的信号方差,导致 10%或更少的相应点误差。由于误差发生在较长的波长上,且振幅明显小于内潮信号,因此预计在大多数应用中,LWC 对使用 SWOT 测量和解释内潮的影响可以忽略不计。
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引用次数: 0
New 3D Velocity Model (mTAB3D) for Absolute Hypocenter Location in Southern Iberia and the Westernmost Mediterranean 用于伊比利亚南部和地中海最西部绝对下沉中心定位的新型三维速度模型 (mTAB3D)
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1029/2023EA002993
José Luis Sánchez-Roldán, José A. Álvarez-Gómez, José J. Martínez-Díaz, Paula Herrero-Barbero, Hector Perea, Juan V. Cantavella, Lucía Lozano

The Trans-Alboran Shear Zone is one of the most seismically active areas in the westernmost Mediterranean, where a wide variety of tectonic domains have developed within the context of oblique convergence between Eurasia and Africa plates. In this region, earthquakes occur close to seismogenic structures, some of them large enough to cause damaging events. In addition, the diversity of tectonic domains implies a lateral variation of seismic wave propagation, which could affect the hypocenter reliability if not addressed during the location procedure. We present mTAB3D, a new 3D P-wave velocity created after data collection, geometry modeling and velocity estimation in our study area. To test this model, we used arrival times from the Spanish Seismic Network catalog and performed two non-linear absolute hypocenter inversions: the first comprises all the seismicity detected during 2018–2022 in the Eastern Betics Shear Zone; the second one consists of the earthquakes recorded during the Al-Hoceima seismic sequence (2016). We compare our results against hypocenters computed with a 1D velocity model of the region (mIGN1D) and observe that mTAB3D achieves better clustering near active structures and lower epicentral uncertainties (up to 11% lower). Moreover, hypocenters obtained with mTAB3D show notable reliability even in scenarios of a low azimuthal gap, such as the 2016 Al-Hoceima sequence. The new catalogs computed with our model help us to infer possible genetic relations between seismicity and source faults within our study area and can be used as an additional tool when looking into prior seismic sequences.

跨阿尔伯兰剪切带是地中海最西端地震最活跃的地区之一,在欧亚板块和非洲板块斜向交汇的背景下,这里形成了各种各样的构造域。在这一地区,地震多发生在地震构造附近,其中一些构造足以造成破坏性地震。此外,构造域的多样性意味着地震波传播的横向变化,如果在定位过程中不加以解决,可能会影响低中心的可靠性。我们介绍了 mTAB3D,这是一种新的三维 P 波速度,是在我们的研究区域进行数据收集、几何建模和速度估算后创建的。为了测试该模型,我们使用了西班牙地震网络目录中的到达时间,并进行了两次非线性绝对低中心反演:第一次反演包括 2018-2022 年期间在东贝蒂奇剪切带检测到的所有地震;第二次反演包括在 Al-Hoceima 地震序列(2016 年)中记录到的地震。我们将我们的结果与该地区的一维速度模型(mIGN1D)计算出的低中心进行了比较,发现 mTAB3D 在活动结构附近实现了更好的聚类,并降低了震中不确定性(低达 11%)。此外,即使在方位角间隙较小的情况下,如2016年的Al-Hoceima序列,用mTAB3D获得的低纬度中心也显示出显著的可靠性。利用我们的模型计算出的新目录有助于我们推断研究区域内地震活动与震源断层之间可能存在的遗传关系,并可作为研究先前地震序列的额外工具。
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引用次数: 0
A Bayesian Model for 20th Century Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Reconstruction 20 世纪南极海冰广度重建的贝叶斯模型
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1029/2024EA003577
T. J. Maierhofer, M. N. Raphael, R. L. Fogt, M. S. Handcock

Antarctic sea ice, a key component in the complex Antarctic climate system, is an important driver and indicator of the global climate. In the relatively short satellite-observed period from 1979 to 2022 the sea ice extent has continuously increased (contrasting a major decrease in Arctic sea ice) up to a dramatic decrease between 2014 and 2017. Recent years have seen record sea ice lows in February 2022–February 2023. We use a statistical ensemble reconstruction of Antarctic sea ice to put the observed changes into the historical context of the entire 20th century. We propose a seasonal Vector Auto-Regressive Moving Average (VARMA) model fit in a Bayesian framework using regularized horseshoe priors on the regression coefficients to create a stochastic ensemble reconstruction of monthly Antarctic Sea ice extent from 1900 to 1979. This novel model produces a set of 2,500 plausible sea ice extent reconstructions for the sea ice by sector that incorporate the autocorrelation structure of sea ice over time as well as the dependence of sea ice between the sectors. These fully observed reconstructions exhibit plausible month-to-month changes in reconstructed sea ice as well as plausible interactions between the sectors and the total. We reconstruct an overall higher sea ice extent earlier in the 20th century with a relatively sharp decline in the 1970s. These trends agree well with previous reconstructions of Antarctic sea ice based on ice core data, whaling locations, and climatological data, as well as early satellite observations in the reconstruction period.

南极海冰是复杂的南极气候系统的关键组成部分,是全球气候的重要驱动力和指标。在 1979 年至 2022 年这一相对较短的卫星观测期内,海冰面积持续增加(与之形成鲜明对比的是北极海冰的大幅减少),直至 2014 年至 2017 年期间的急剧减少。近年来,2022 年 2 月至 2023 年 2 月的海冰面积创下了历史新低。我们利用南极海冰的统计集合重建,将观测到的变化置于整个 20 世纪的历史背景中。我们提出了一个季节性矢量自回归移动平均(VARMA)模型,该模型在贝叶斯框架下使用回归系数的正则化马蹄先验值来创建 1900 年至 1979 年南极海冰月度范围的随机集合重建。这一新颖的模型为各扇区的海冰生成了一套 2500 个可信的海冰范围重建,其中包含了海冰随时间变化的自相关结构以及各扇区之间海冰的依赖性。这些完全观测到的重建结果表明,重建海冰的月与月之间的变化是可信的,各区海冰与总海冰之间的相互作用也是可信的。我们重建的海冰范围在 20 世纪早期总体较高,在 20 世纪 70 年代相对急剧下降。这些趋势与之前根据冰芯数据、捕鲸地点和气候学数据重建的南极海冰以及重建时期的早期卫星观测结果非常吻合。
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引用次数: 0
Improving Equatorial Upper Ocean Vertical Mixing in the NOAA/GFDL OM4 Model 改进 NOAA/GFDL OM4 模式中的赤道上层海洋垂直混合功能
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI: 10.1029/2023EA003485
Brandon G. Reichl, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Stephen M. Griffies, Alistair Adcroft

Deficiencies in upper ocean vertical mixing parameterizations contribute to tropical upper ocean biases in global coupled general circulation models, affecting their simulated ocean heat uptake and ENSO variability. To better understand these deficiencies, we develop a suite of ocean model experiments including both idealized single column models and realistic global simulations. The vertical mixing parameterizations are first evaluated using large eddy simulations as a baseline to assess uncertainties and evaluate their implied turbulent mixing. Global models are then developed following NOAA/GFDL's 0.25° nominal horizontal grid spacing OM4 (uncoupled) configuration of the MOM6 ocean model, with various modifications that target biases in the original model. We test several enhancements to the existing mixing schemes and evaluate them against observational constraints from Tropical Atmosphere Ocean moorings and Argo floats. In particular, we find that we can improve the diurnal variability of mixing in OM4 via modifications to its surface boundary layer mixing scheme, and can improve the net mixing in the upper thermocline by reducing the background vertical viscosity, allowing for more realistic, less diffuse currents. The improved OM4 model better represents the mixing, leading to improved diurnal deep-cycle variability, a more realistic time-mean tropical thermocline structure, and a better Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent.

上层海洋垂直混合参数化的缺陷导致了全球耦合大气环流模式中热带上层海洋的偏差,影响了其模拟的海洋吸热和厄尔尼诺/南方涛动变率。为了更好地了解这些缺陷,我们开发了一套海洋模式实验,包括理想化的单柱模式和现实的全球模拟。首先以大涡模拟为基线,评估垂直混合参数化的不确定性,并评估其隐含的湍流混合。然后,按照 NOAA/GFDL 的 0.25°标称水平网格间距 OM4(非耦合)MOM6 海洋模式配置开发全球模式,并针对原始模式中的偏差进行各种修改。我们测试了对现有混合方案的几种改进,并根据热带大气海洋系泊和 Argo 浮漂的观测约束进行了评估。特别是,我们发现通过修改 OM4 的表层边界层混合方案,可以改善混合的昼夜变化;通过降低背景垂直粘度,可以改善上温跃层的净混合,使洋流更真实、扩散更小。改进后的 OM4 模式能更好地反映混合情况,从而改善昼夜深周期变率,使热带温跃层结构的时间均值更加逼真,并能更好地反映太平洋赤道暗流。
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Earth and Space Science
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