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Spatial Econometric Cross-Border Traffic Analysis for Passenger Cars – Hungarian Experience 乘用车跨境交通空间计量分析——匈牙利经验
IF 1 4区 工程技术 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2021-03-31 DOI: 10.7307/PTT.V33I2.3641
T. Sipos, Z. Szabó, Á. Török
The role of cross-border commuting needs is remarkable, given that large cross-border cities tend to have high traffic attractiveness. Thus, agglomeration effects are strongly prevalent in populous settlements close to the border. This is due to the fact that both Hungary and the neighboring countries are burdened by spatial inequalities; therefore, the traffic at the individual border crossing points is unbalanced. Our aim is to show the extent to which the introduction of certain public transport modes contributes to the reduction of cross-border passenger car traffic. In order to do this, we have to set up a spatial econometric model that can simultaneously handle the parallel public transport infrastructure, the cross-border attractiveness of border cities, and the impact of spatial inequalities. The results of the research shed light on how the introduction of each means of transport contributes to increasing the competitiveness of border regions. This will demonstrate the effectiveness of policy tools that can improve the competitiveness of a given macroregion.
考虑到大型跨境城市往往具有较高的交通吸引力,跨境通勤需求的作用是显著的。因此,集聚效应在靠近边境的人口聚居区非常普遍。这是由于匈牙利和邻国都受到空间不平等的影响;因此,各个过境点的交通是不平衡的。我们的目的是显示某些公共交通方式的引入在多大程度上有助于减少跨境乘用车交通。为了做到这一点,我们必须建立一个空间计量经济模型,该模型可以同时处理平行的公共交通基础设施、边境城市的跨境吸引力和空间不平等的影响。研究结果揭示了每种交通工具的引入如何有助于提高边境地区的竞争力。这将证明能够提高特定宏观区域竞争力的政策工具的有效性。
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引用次数: 2
Hierarchical Passenger Hub Location Problem in a Megaregion Area Considering Service Availability 考虑服务可用性的大区域分层客运枢纽选址问题
IF 1 4区 工程技术 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2021-03-31 DOI: 10.7307/PTT.V33I2.3563
Huang Yan, Xiaoning Zhang, Xiao-lin Wang
The rapid growth of the intercity travel demand has resulted in enormous pressure on the passenger transportation network in a megaregion area. Optimally locating hubs and allocating demands to hubs influence the effectiveness of a passenger transportation network. This study develops a hierarchical passenger hub location model considering the service availability of hierarchical hubs. A mixed integer linear programming formulation was developed to minimize the total cost of hub operation and transportation for multiple travel demands and determine the proportion of passengers that access hubs at each level. This model was implemented for the Wuhan metropolitan area in four different scenarios to illustrate the applicability of the model. Then, a sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of changing key parameters on the model results. The results are compared to those of traditional models, and the findings demonstrate the importance of considering hub choice behavior in demand allocation.
城际旅行需求的快速增长给大区域的客运网络带来了巨大的压力。枢纽的优化定位和对枢纽的需求分配影响客运网络的有效性。本文建立了考虑分层枢纽服务可用性的分层客运枢纽定位模型。提出了一种混合整数线性规划公式,以最大限度地降低多种出行需求下枢纽运营和运输的总成本,并确定每一级枢纽的乘客比例。以武汉都市圈为例,在四种不同的场景下实施了该模型,以说明该模型的适用性。然后,进行敏感性分析,评估关键参数变化对模型结果的影响。通过与传统模型的比较,表明了在需求分配中考虑枢纽选择行为的重要性。
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引用次数: 1
The Use of Expert Judgement Methods for Deriving Accident Probabilities in Aviation 专家判断方法在航空事故概率计算中的应用
IF 1 4区 工程技术 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2021-03-30 DOI: 10.7307/PTT.V33I2.3634
Benedikt Badánik, M. Jánossy, A. Dijkstra
Improving safety has always been the top interest in the aviation industry. The outcomes of safety and risk analyses have become much more thorough and sophisticated. They have become an industry standard of safety investigations in many airlines nowadays. In the past, airlines were much more limited in answering the questions about hazardous situations, accident probabilities, and accident rates. Airlines try hard to cope with stricter safety standards. The objective of this paper is to find out and quantify the extent of the expert judgment in helping airlines in the evaluation of the Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) events. On top of that, the paper reveals the method for a careful choice of experts, so that their estimations will maximize the potential of an accurate and useful outcome. Also, the paper provides details of implementation of the classical model into this research, then continues with the calculations and visualization of the outcomes. The outcomes are probability distributions per each aircraft type, then per IATA accident type and finally per FDM event.
提高安全性一直是航空业最关心的问题。安全和风险分析的结果已经变得更加彻底和复杂。如今,它们已成为许多航空公司安全调查的行业标准。过去,航空公司在回答有关危险情况、事故概率和事故率的问题时要有限得多。航空公司努力应对更严格的安全标准。本文的目的是找出并量化专家判断在帮助航空公司评估飞行数据监测(FDM)事件中的程度。最重要的是,本文揭示了仔细选择专家的方法,以便他们的估计将最大限度地提高准确和有用的结果的潜力。此外,本文还提供了经典模型在本研究中的实现细节,然后继续进行计算和结果的可视化。结果是每种飞机类型的概率分布,然后是IATA事故类型,最后是FDM事件。
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引用次数: 1
Forecasting the All-Weather Short-Term Metro Passenger Flow Based on Seasonal and Nonlinear LSSVM 基于季节性非线性LSSVM的地铁短期全天候客流预测
IF 1 4区 工程技术 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2021-03-30 DOI: 10.7307/PTT.V33I2.3561
Xin Huang, Yimin Wang, Peiqun Lin, Heng Yu, Yue Luo
Accurate metro ridership prediction can guide passengers in efficiently selecting their departure time and simultaneously help traffic operators develop a passenger organization strategy. However, short-term passenger flow prediction needs to consider many factors, and the results of the existing models for short-term subway passenger flow forecasting are often unsatisfactory. Along this line, we propose a parallel architecture, called the seasonal and nonlinear least squares support vector machine (SN-LSSVM), to extract the periodicity and nonlinearity characteristics of passenger flow. Various forecasting models, including auto-regressive integrated moving average, long short-term memory network, and support vector machine, are employed for evaluating the performance of the proposed architecture. Moreover, we first applied the method to the Tiyu Xilu station which is the most crowded station in the Guangzhou metro. The results indicate that the proposed model can effectively make all-weather and year-round passenger flow predictions, thus contributing to the management of the station.
准确的地铁客流量预测可以指导乘客有效地选择出发时间,同时也可以帮助交通运营商制定乘客组织策略。然而,短期客流预测需要考虑很多因素,现有的地铁短期客流预测模型结果往往不理想。在此基础上,我们提出了一种并行架构,称为季节性和非线性最小二乘支持向量机(SN-LSSVM),以提取客流的周期性和非线性特征。各种预测模型,包括自回归综合移动平均、长短期记忆网络和支持向量机,被用来评估所提出的体系结构的性能。此外,我们首先将该方法应用于广州地铁最拥挤的车站——铁玉西路站。结果表明,该模型能有效地进行全天候、全年客流预测,为车站管理提供依据。
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引用次数: 3
Impact of Covid-19 on Public Transportation Usage and Ambient Air Quality in Turkey 新冠肺炎对土耳其公共交通使用和环境空气质量的影响
IF 1 4区 工程技术 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2021-03-30 DOI: 10.7307/PTT.V33I2.3704
M. Sahraei, Emre Kuşkapan, M. Çodur
COVID-19 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus is a global health concern due to the quick spread of the disease In Turkey, the first confirmed COVID-19 case and death occurred on 11 and 15 March 2020, respectively There is a lack of research on the impact of COVID-19 on public transportation mobility and the Air Quality Index (AQI) around the world The objective of this research is to consider the impact of COVID-19 on public transportation usage and consequently the AQI level in Turkey Data collection for the analysis of public transportation usage and the air quality status during pre-lockdown and lockdown was carried out using the public transportation applications Moovit and World's Air Pollution The results demonstrated that during the lockdown in Ankara and Istanbul, public transportation usage dramatically decreased by more than 80% by the end of March and did not change significantly until the end of May As regards air quality, the results confirmed that air quality improved significantly during the lockdown For Ankara and Istanbul, the improvement was estimated at about 9% and 47%, respectively
由SARS-CoV-2病毒引起的COVID-19是一个全球卫生问题,因为该疾病传播迅速。土耳其于2020年3月11日和15日出现了第一例COVID-19确诊病例和死亡。分别有一个缺乏研究COVID-19对公共交通的影响流动和空气质量指数(AQI)世界各地的这项研究的目标是要考虑COVID-19的影响在公共交通工具上使用,因此在土耳其的机能水平数据收集分析pre-lockdown期间使用公共交通和空气质量状况和封锁是使用公共交通应用Moovit和世界的空气结果表明,在安卡拉和伊斯坦布尔的封锁期间,公共交通使用量在3月底大幅下降了80%以上,直到5月底才出现明显变化。至于空气质量,结果证实,安卡拉和伊斯坦布尔的空气质量在封锁期间得到了显着改善,估计分别为9%和47%
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引用次数: 13
Estimating Urban Road Transport Vehicles Emissions in the Rijeka City Streets 估计城市道路运输车辆在里耶卡市街道排放
IF 1 4区 工程技术 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2021-03-30 DOI: 10.7307/PTT.V33I2.3613
Livia Maglić, Tomislav Krljan, N. Grubišić, Lovro Maglić
The growing demand for private and public transport services in urban areas requires sophisticated approaches to achieve satisfactory mobility standards in urban areas. Some of the main problems in urban areas today are road congestions and consequently vehicle emissions. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodological approach for the estimation of vehicle emissions. The proposed methodology is based on two interrelated models. The first model is a microscopic simulation SUMO model which can be used to identify the most congested urban areas and roads with critical values of traffic parameters. The second model is the COPERT Street Level for estimating vehicle emissions. The proposed models were tested on the urban area of Rijeka. The results of the microscopic SUMO simulation model indicate six urban roads with the critical traffic flow parameters. On the basis of the six identified urban roads, an estimation of vehicle emissions was carried out for specific time periods: 2017, 2020, 2025, and 2030. According to the results of the second model, the urban road R20-21 was identified as the most polluted road in the urban district of Rijeka. The results indicate that over the period 2017–2030, CO emissions will be reduced on average by 57% on all observed urban roads, CO2 emissions by 20%, and PM emissions by 58%, while the largest reduction of 65% will be in NOx emissions.
城市地区对私人和公共交通服务的需求日益增长,需要采取复杂的办法来实现城市地区令人满意的交通标准。今天城市地区的一些主要问题是道路拥堵以及由此产生的车辆排放。本文的目的是提出一种估算车辆排放的方法方法。所提出的方法基于两个相互关联的模型。第一个模型是微观模拟SUMO模型,该模型可用于识别最拥挤的城市区域和具有交通参数临界值的道路。第二个模型是用于估计车辆排放的COPERT街道水平。提出的模型在里耶卡市区进行了测试。微观SUMO仿真模型的结果表明,6条城市道路具有临界交通流参数。在确定的6条城市道路的基础上,对2017年、2020年、2025年和2030年的具体时间段进行了车辆排放估算。根据第二个模型的结果,确定城市道路R20-21是里耶卡市区污染最严重的道路。结果表明,在2017-2030年期间,所有观察到的城市道路的CO排放量将平均减少57%,CO2排放量减少20%,PM排放量减少58%,而氮氧化物排放量减少幅度最大,为65%。
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引用次数: 2
Dynamic Bayesian Network-Based Escape Probability Estimation for Coach Fire Accidents 基于动态贝叶斯网络的客车火灾事故逃生概率估计
IF 1 4区 工程技术 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2021-03-30 DOI: 10.7307/PTT.V33I2.3537
Chenyu Zhou, Xuan Zhao, Qiang Yu, Rong Huang
Coach emergency escape research is an effective measure to reduce casualties under serious vehicle fire accidents. A novel experiment method employing a wireless transducer was implemented and the head rotation speed, rotation moment and rotation duration were collected as the input variables for the classification and regression tree (CART) model. Based on this model, the classification result explicitly pointed out that the exit searching efficiency was evolving. By ignoring the last three unimportant factors from the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the ultimate Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) was built with the temporal part of the CART output and the time-independent part of the vehicle characteristics. Simulation showed that the most efficient exit searching period is the middle escape stage, which is 10 seconds after the emergency signal is triggered, and the escape probability clearly increases with the efficient exit searching. Furthermore, receiving emergency escape training contributes to a significant escape probability improvement of more than 10%. Compared with different failure modes, the emergency hammer layout and door reliability have a more significant influence on the escape probability improvement than aisle condition. Based on the simulation results, the escape probability will significantly drop below 0.55 if the emergency hammers, door, and aisle are all in a failure state.
客车紧急逃生研究是减少重大车辆火灾事故中人员伤亡的有效措施。提出了一种采用无线传感器的实验方法,将头部旋转速度、旋转力矩和旋转持续时间作为分类回归树(CART)模型的输入变量。基于该模型的分类结果明确指出了出口搜索效率的演化。通过忽略层次分析法(AHP)中最后三个不重要的因素,构建了包含CART输出的时间部分和车辆特性的时间无关部分的最终动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)。仿真结果表明,最有效的出口搜索时段为逃生中期,即应急信号触发后10秒,逃生概率随着出口搜索效率的提高而明显增加。此外,接受紧急逃生训练可使逃生概率显著提高10%以上。在不同的失效模式下,应急锤布置和门的可靠性对逃生概率提高的影响比通道条件更显著。仿真结果表明,当应急锤、应急门、应急通道均处于失效状态时,逃生概率将显著下降到0.55以下。
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引用次数: 3
Estimating Signal Timing of Actuated Signal Control Using Pattern Recognition under Connected Vehicle Environment 车联网环境下基于模式识别的驱动信号控制信号时序估计
IF 1 4区 工程技术 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2021-02-05 DOI: 10.7307/PTT.V33I1.3555
Ruochen Hao, Ling Wang, Wanjing Ma, Chunhui Yu
The Signal Phase and Timing (SPaT) message is an important input for research and applications of Connected Vehicles (CVs). However, the actuated signal controllers are not able to directly give the SPaT information since the SPaT is influenced by both signal control logic and real-time traffic demand. This study elaborates an estimation method which is proposed according to the idea that an actuated signal controller would provide similar signal timing for similar traffic states. Thus, the quantitative description of traffic states is important. The traffic flow at each approaching lane has been compared to fluids. The state of fluids can be indicated by state parameters, e.g. speed or height, and its energy, which includes kinetic energy and potential energy. Similar to the fluids, this paper has proposed an energy model for traffic flow, and it has also added the queue length as an additional state parameter. Based on that, the traffic state of intersections can be descripted. Then, a pattern recognition algorithm was developed to identify the most similar historical states and also their corresponding SPaTs, whose average is the estimated SPaT of this second. The result shows that the average error is 3.1 seconds.
信号相位和时序信息是车联网研究和应用的重要输入。然而,由于信号控制逻辑和实时交通需求的双重影响,驱动信号控制器不能直接给出点对点信息。本文阐述了一种基于驱动信号控制器对相似交通状态提供相似信号时序的估计方法。因此,交通状态的定量描述是很重要的。每条接近车道的交通流量都被比作流体。流体的状态可以通过状态参数来表示,例如速度或高度,以及它的能量,其中包括动能和势能。与流体模型类似,本文提出了交通流的能量模型,并增加了队列长度作为附加状态参数。在此基础上,可以对交叉口的交通状态进行描述。然后,开发了一种模式识别算法来识别最相似的历史状态及其对应的SPaT,其平均值为该秒的估计SPaT。结果表明,平均误差为3.1秒。
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引用次数: 2
Railway Capacity Enhancement with Modern Signalling Systems – A Literature Review 利用现代信号系统提高铁路运力——文献综述
IF 1 4区 工程技术 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2021-02-05 DOI: 10.7307/PTT.V33I1.3664
Matea Mikulčić, T. Mlinarić
In times of ever stronger awareness of environmental protection and potentiation of a beneficial modal split, the railway sector with efficient asset utilization and proper investment planning has the highest chance of meeting customer expectations and attracting new users more effectively. Continuous increase in railway demand leads to an increase in the utilization of railway infrastructure, and the inevitable lack of capacity, a burning problem that many national railways are continually facing. To address it more effectively, this paper reviews available methodologies for railway capacity determination and techniques for its enhancement in the recent scientific literature. Particular focus is given to the possibility of increasing railway capacity through signalling systems and installing the European Train Control System (ETCS). The most important relationships with segments of existing research have been identified, and in line with this, the directions for a potential continuation of research are suggested.
在环境保护意识日益增强和有利的模式分化日益加剧的时代,资产利用效率高、投资规划合理的铁路部门最有可能满足客户的期望,并更有效地吸引新用户。铁路需求的不断增长导致铁路基础设施利用率的不断提高,而运力不足是不可避免的,这是许多国家铁路一直面临的一个亟待解决的问题。为了更有效地解决这一问题,本文回顾了最近科学文献中可用的铁路运力确定方法和提高运力的技术。特别关注的是通过信号系统和安装欧洲列车控制系统(ETCS)来增加铁路运力的可能性。已经确定了与现有研究各部分最重要的关系,并据此提出了可能继续进行研究的方向。
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引用次数: 5
Solving Robust Variants of Integer Flow Problems with Uncertain Arc Capacities 具有不确定圆弧容量的整数流问题的鲁棒解
IF 1 4区 工程技术 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2021-02-05 DOI: 10.7307/PTT.V33I1.3538
Marko Spoljarec, R. Manger
This paper deals with robust optimization and network flows. Several robust variants of integer flow problems are considered. They assume uncertainty of network arc capacities as well as of arc unit costs (where applicable). Uncertainty is expressed by discrete scenarios. Since the considered variants of the maximum flow problem are easy to solve, the paper is mostly concerned with NP-hard variants of the minimum-cost flow problem, thus proposing an approximate algorithm for their solution. The accuracy of the proposed algorithm is verified by experiments.
本文主要研究鲁棒优化和网络流问题。考虑了整数流问题的几个鲁棒变体。它们假定网络电弧容量和电弧单位成本(如适用)的不确定性。不确定性由离散情景表示。由于所考虑的最大流问题的变体易于求解,因此本文主要关注最小代价流问题的NP-hard变体,从而提出了求解它们的近似算法。通过实验验证了该算法的准确性。
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引用次数: 1
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