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Bioclimatic drivers and niche Thresholds: Decoupling the habitat suitability dynamics of Phoebe zhennan 生物气候驱动因素与生态位阈值:浙南生境适宜性动态解耦
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127173
Beibei Chen , Weiyi Liu , Zhenqi Liao , Yuan Li , Zhongbiao Ding , Yingxuan Luo , Boon Chin Tan , Chee How Teo
As an IUCN Red List endangered species, Phoebe zhennan epitomizes the convergence of ecological vulnerability and cultural significance. Renowned for its “Golden-thread nanmu” timber, P. zhennan dominates China’s precious wood industry but faces critical threats from habitat fragmentation and climate-driven drought. While previous studies have primarily examined local-scale habitat characteristics, few studies have integrated paleo-historical dynamics with future projections by synthesizing changes in habitat area, geographic centroid, and niche evolution. This study used optimized MaxEnt and Biomod2 to simulate the potential distribution of P. zhennan across past, current and future climate scenarios. ENMeval-guided parameter tuning, combined with MESS/MoD analysis based on the 153 validated occurrence records of P. zhennan and the 13 selected bioclimatic and topographic variables, improved the detection of environmental shifts beyond the current reference conditions, while niche differentiation assessments provided deeper insights into local adaptation mechanisms. Results show suitable habitats concentrated in subtropical regions, with stability during the Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, warming and precipitation shifts are projected to drive northward habitat expansion, though increased precipitation variability may impose physiological constraints. Eastern and western populations exhibit distinct temperature-precipitation adaptations, highlighting the species’s vulnerability to climate variability. This study integrates multi-model optimization and niche quantification to provide data-driven frameworks for sustainable management, emphasizing assisted migration, germplasm conservation, and climate-adaptive forestry.
作为世界自然保护联盟濒危物种红色名录,菲比珍南体现了生态脆弱性和文化意义的融合。以“金线楠木”著称的真南在中国的珍贵木材产业中占据主导地位,但面临栖息地破碎化和气候干旱的严重威胁。虽然以往的研究主要是考察局地尺度的生境特征,但很少有研究通过综合生境面积、地理质心和生态位演变的变化,将古历史动态与未来预测结合起来。本研究利用优化后的MaxEnt和Biomod2模拟了过去、现在和未来气候情景下真南的潜在分布。基于enmeval指导下的参数调优,结合基于153个已验证的真南发生记录和13个选定的生物气候和地形变量的MESS/MoD分析,改进了对当前参考条件之外环境变化的检测,而生态位分化评估则有助于深入了解局部适应机制。结果表明:适宜生境集中在亚热带地区,末次盛冰期和中全新世期间生境较为稳定;在SSP5-8.5情景下,升温和降水变化预计将推动栖息地向北扩展,尽管降水变率的增加可能会施加生理限制。东部和西部种群表现出不同的温度-降水适应,突出了物种对气候变化的脆弱性。该研究将多模型优化和生态位量化相结合,为可持续管理提供数据驱动框架,重点关注辅助迁移、种质资源保护和气候适应性林业。
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引用次数: 0
Plant conservation hologenomics: integrating population genomics with mycobiome assessments for protected orchid species 植物保护全基因组学:整合种群基因组学与兰花保护物种真菌群落评估
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127172
Ida Hartvig , Ida Junker Madsen , Maria Sophie Bünner , André Bourbonnais , Henrik Ærenlund Pedersen , Lene Rostgaard Nielsen , M.Thomas P. Gilbert
Growing evidence of the microbiome’s importance for plant ecology highlights the need for conservation strategies that consider both plants and their microbial partners, the holobiont. Population genomics are valuable tools for designing conservation strategies but rarely accounts for host- or site-specific microbial interactions. Orchids, with their dependence on specific mycorrhizal fungi, exemplify the need to include the microbiome in conservation planning. We here combine population genomics with exploration of root mycobiomes for three closely related orchid taxa (Platanthera chlorantha, P. bifolia var. bifolia and P. bifolia var. latissima) across 22 populations in Denmark to identify ecologically and evolutionary significant units. Our data revealed that Platanthera chlorantha and P. bifolia s.l. hosted different mycobiomes, suggesting a strong host effect on the fungal symbionts. Population genomic analyses identified three different clusters, one matching P. bifolia var. bifolia and two clusters dividing P. chlorantha into two geographically separate units. The genomic profile of P. bifolia var. latissima was similar to that of P. bifolia var. bifolia but indicated some introgression from P. chlorantha. By combining the mycobiome and population genomic data we reveal that the three detected clusters were associated with different mycobiomes, resulting in a significant correlation between host genomics and mycobiome. Root mycobiomes were correlated with variation in soil nutrients, suggesting a role of the orchids’ fungal partners in adaptation to local edaphic conditions. We propose to identify evolutionary significant units in Platanthera in Denmark based on the novel combination of host genomic and mycobiome profiles, in a conservation hologenomics approach.
越来越多的证据表明微生物组对植物生态的重要性,这凸显了保护策略的必要性,既要考虑植物,也要考虑它们的微生物伙伴——全息生物。种群基因组学是设计保护策略的宝贵工具,但很少考虑宿主或特定地点的微生物相互作用。兰花依赖于特定的菌根真菌,因此需要将微生物组纳入保护规划。在此,我们将群体基因组学与对丹麦22个种群中三个密切相关的兰花分类群(Platanthera chlorantha, P. bifolia var. bifolia和P. bifolia var. latissima)的根真菌群落的探索相结合,以确定生态和进化上的重要单位。我们的数据显示,Platanthera chlorantha和P. bifolia s.l.有不同的真菌群落,表明宿主对真菌共生体有很强的影响。种群基因组分析确定了三个不同的集群,一个匹配双歧双歧豆,两个集群将绿antha划分为两个地理上独立的单位。双歧豆的基因组图谱与双歧豆相似,但有来自绿花豆的基因渗入。通过结合真菌组和群体基因组数据,我们发现三个检测到的集群与不同的真菌组相关,从而导致宿主基因组学和真菌组之间存在显着相关性。根真菌群落与土壤养分变化相关,表明兰科植物的真菌伴侣在适应当地土壤条件方面发挥了作用。我们建议在保护全基因组学方法中,基于宿主基因组和真菌组谱的新组合,确定丹麦Platanthera的进化重要单位。
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引用次数: 0
Quantification of biotic pressure in Ravangla-Bhaleydhunga trekking route located within Maenam Wildlife Sanctuary, Sikkim, India 印度锡金Maenam野生动物保护区的Ravangla-Bhaleydhunga徒步路线上生物压力的量化
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127193
Muna Devi Gurung , Santanu Gupta , Hema Gupta Joshi
Maenam Wildlife Sanctuary (MWS) situated in South Sikkim, India, is a treasure house of medicine, the literal meaning of its name, and famous for bird diversity attracts bird lovers across the region. MWS is famous for its 13 km long Ravangla – Bhaleydhunga trekking corridor within the park which attracts large number of national and international trekkers. In this paper, the impact of trekking on wood cutting, and local dependency on the forest resources are quantified and the impact of biotic interferences in lower and upper forests of the trekking route are compared. The percentage of cut trees in the study area was 19 % in lower forest, and only 2 % in upper forest (t-test significance, p < 0.05). Nearly 26 % of the woody trees were found lopped in the lower forest whereas only 3 % of trees were lopped in upper forest (p < 0.05). The percentage of cut shrub was much higher in lower forest (44 %) than in upper forest (14 %) of study area. Species like Myrsine capitellata Wall. (45 %), Brassaiopsis mitis C. B. Clarke (29 %), and Viburnum erubescens Wall (26 %) were found frequently cut by the trekking groups and local people. In comparison to the lower hill forest, the upper hill forest was found relatively undisturbed with around 7 % cut trees for Meliosma wallichii Planch. ex Hook.f. and surprisingly 13 % cut trees of Rhododendron grande Wight, the species that was completely absent in the lower hills forest. The most often cut and lopped species in the trekking route have both maximum fuel and ethnomedicinal values.
Maenam野生动物保护区(MWS)位于印度锡金南部,是医学宝库,其名称的字面意思是鸟类多样性,吸引了整个地区的鸟类爱好者。MWS以其公园内长达13公里的Ravangla - Bhaleydhunga徒步走廊而闻名,吸引了大量的国内和国际徒步旅行者。本文量化了徒步旅行对木材采伐的影响,以及当地对森林资源的依赖,并比较了徒步旅行路线上下森林中生物干扰的影响。研究区下层林采伐率为19%,上层林采伐率仅为2% (t检验显著性,p < 0.05)。近26%的木本树木在下层林被砍伐,而上层林只有3%的树木被砍伐(p < 0.05)。研究区林下灌木采伐率(44%)远高于林下灌木采伐率(14%)。种像小头麦丝莲壁。其中,Brassaiopsis mitis C. B. Clarke(29%)和Viburnum erubescens Wall(26%)经常被徒步探险者和当地人砍伐。与低山林相比,高山林被发现相对未受干扰,约有7%的树木被砍伐。Hook.f交货。令人惊讶的是,13%的人砍伐了大白杜鹃(Rhododendron grande Wight),这种物种在低山林中完全不存在。在徒步旅行路线上最常被砍伐的物种具有最大的燃料和民族药用价值。
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引用次数: 0
Climate-driven habitat collapse of an endemic medicinal plant: Ensemble modeling reveals Echinops kebericho’s vulnerability in Ethiopia 气候驱动的一种地方性药用植物栖息地崩溃:集合模型揭示了埃塞俄比亚kebericho的脆弱性
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127191
Tibebu Enkossa , Zerihun Tadesse , Shambel Alemu
This study evaluates present and future habitat suitability for Echinops kebericho, an endemic medicinal herb of Ethiopia’s highlands using an ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) approach, under intermediate climate change scenario (SSP2-4.5). Species occurrence data were collected from field surveys, herbarium records, and GBIF, while environmental variables (bioclimatic, elevation, solar radiation) were sourced from Worldclim, STRM, and MODI respectively. Five machine learning algorithms (GLM, MaxEnt, RF, FDA, and BRT) were initially examined. Due to its lower predictive performance (AUC: 0.81, TSS: 0.58), FDA was excluded. Model performance was assessed by partitioning data into 70 % training and 30 % testing sets using subsampling and bootstrapping to avoid overfitting, with evaluation metrics including AUC, TSS, COR, and Deviance. The final ensemble model with highest predictive accuracy (AUC: 0.94, TSS: 0.812) identified mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio_8; 60.3 % importance) and annually precipitation (bio_12; 21.0 %), revealing the species’ restricted thermal (10.4–16.4 °C) and moisture (1,618–1,997 mm). Projections show a severe contraction of habitat, with 1.9 % (∼21,824.7 km2) of Ethiopia currently suitable, dropping to 1.8 % (∼20,790.1 km2) by 2050 and further to 1.3 % (∼14,175.2 km2) by 2070, with extreme loss-to-gain ratios (46.8:1 in 2050; 72.6:1 in 2070). By 2070, there will only be ∼ 13,407 km2 of stable refugia, highlighting the area’s vulnerability to moderate warming (∼2.1 °C) and changes in precipitation. Annual precipitation and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter emerged as the most influential predictors, highlighting the species’ narrow thermal tolerance and strong dependence on moisture. In addition to addressing anthropogenic pressures like agricultural expansion and unsustainable harvesting, the study underscores the need to establish and effectively manage protected areas that encompass identified stable climate refugia, ensuring the long-term conservation of E. kebericho by safeguarding critical habitats against ongoing climate and anthropogenic threats. These findings provide essential insights for planning biodiversity conservation and managing E. kebericho sustainably in the face of swiftly changing climate conditions.
在中等气候变化情景(SSP2-4.5)下,采用群落物种分布模型(SDM)方法评价了埃塞俄比亚高原特有药材Echinops kebericho现在和未来的生境适宜性。物种发生数据来源于野外调查、植物标本馆记录和GBIF,环境变量(生物气候、海拔、太阳辐射)分别来源于Worldclim、STRM和MODI。最初研究了五种机器学习算法(GLM、MaxEnt、RF、FDA和BRT)。由于其较低的预测性能(AUC: 0.81, TSS: 0.58), FDA被排除在外。模型性能通过将数据划分为70%的训练集和30%的测试集来评估,使用子抽样和自举来避免过拟合,评估指标包括AUC, TSS, COR和Deviance。最终的集合模型具有最高的预测精度(AUC: 0.94, TSS: 0.812),确定了最湿季的平均温度(bio_8,重要性为60.3%)和年降水量(bio_12,重要性为21.0%),揭示了物种的限制热(10.4-16.4°C)和水分(1,618-1,997 mm)。预测显示,栖息地严重萎缩,埃塞俄比亚目前的适宜面积为1.9%(~ 21,824.7平方公里),到2050年降至1.8%(~ 20,790.1平方公里),到2070年进一步降至1.3%(~ 14,175.2平方公里),损益比极端(2050年为46.8:1;2070年为72.6:1)。到2070年,将只有~ 13407平方公里的稳定避难所,突出了该地区对中度变暖(~ 2.1°C)和降水变化的脆弱性。年降水量和最湿季的平均温度是影响最大的预测因子,这表明该物种的热耐受性较窄,对水分的依赖性较强。除了解决农业扩张和不可持续收获等人为压力外,该研究还强调需要建立和有效管理保护区,包括已确定的稳定气候避难所,通过保护重要栖息地免受持续的气候和人为威胁,确保kebericho的长期保护。这些发现为在快速变化的气候条件下规划生物多样性保护和可持续管理kebericho提供了重要见解。
{"title":"Climate-driven habitat collapse of an endemic medicinal plant: Ensemble modeling reveals Echinops kebericho’s vulnerability in Ethiopia","authors":"Tibebu Enkossa ,&nbsp;Zerihun Tadesse ,&nbsp;Shambel Alemu","doi":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127191","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127191","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluates present and future habitat suitability for <em>Echinops kebericho</em>, an endemic medicinal herb of Ethiopia’s highlands using an ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) approach, under intermediate climate change scenario (SSP2-4.5). Species occurrence data were collected from field surveys, herbarium records, and GBIF, while environmental variables (bioclimatic, elevation, solar radiation) were sourced from Worldclim, STRM, and MODI respectively. Five machine learning algorithms (GLM, MaxEnt, RF, FDA, and BRT) were initially examined. Due to its lower predictive performance (AUC: 0.81, TSS: 0.58), FDA was excluded. Model performance was assessed by partitioning data into 70 % training and 30 % testing sets using subsampling and bootstrapping to avoid overfitting, with evaluation metrics including AUC, TSS, COR, and Deviance. The final ensemble model with highest predictive accuracy (AUC: 0.94, TSS: 0.812) identified mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio_8; 60.3 % importance) and annually precipitation (bio_12; 21.0 %), revealing the species’ restricted thermal (10.4–16.4 °C) and moisture (1,618–1,997 mm). Projections show a severe contraction of habitat, with 1.9 % (∼21,824.7 km2) of Ethiopia currently suitable, dropping to 1.8 % (∼20,790.1 km2) by 2050 and further to 1.3 % (∼14,175.2 km2) by 2070, with extreme loss-to-gain ratios (46.8:1 in 2050; 72.6:1 in 2070). By 2070, there will only be ∼ 13,407 km<sup>2</sup> of stable refugia, highlighting the area’s vulnerability to moderate warming (∼2.1 °C) and changes in precipitation. Annual precipitation and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter emerged as the most influential predictors, highlighting the species’ narrow thermal tolerance and strong dependence on moisture. In addition to addressing anthropogenic pressures like agricultural expansion and unsustainable harvesting, the study underscores the need to establish and effectively manage protected areas that encompass identified stable climate refugia, ensuring the long-term conservation of <em>E. kebericho</em> by safeguarding critical habitats against ongoing climate and anthropogenic threats. These findings provide essential insights for planning biodiversity conservation and managing <em>E. kebericho</em> sustainably in the face of swiftly changing climate conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54898,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Nature Conservation","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 127191"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145790803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Protected areas with high species, phylogenetic, and functional diversity are complementary and occur in heavily modified Cerrado landscapes 具有高度物种、系统发育和功能多样性的保护区是互补的,并且发生在经过大量修改的塞拉多景观中
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127204
Rhayane Pires Werneck, Fernando Landa Sobral, Marcus Vinicius Cianciaruso
Human population growth and anthropogenic land-use change are among the greatest threats to global biodiversity. Although protected areas are a cornerstone of conservation strategy, their design often overlooks critical ecological functions and the evolutionary history of species. Here, we evaluated whether species richness, phylogenetic diversity and functional diversity of birds and mammals across 101 protected areas in Brazil’s Cerrado biome are threatened by anthropogenic pressures, and tested the relationships among these three biodiversity dimensions. We report three main findings. First, protected areas with the highest values of both phylogenetic and functional diversity are concentrated in heavily altered landscapes. Second, phylogenetic and functional diversity were only weakly and positively correlated in birds, and not related in mammals. These results show that evolutionary history is not a reliable predictor of ecological function. Therefore, conserving the Cerrado’s biodiversity requires (1) urgent action to mitigate human impacts within protected areas, and (2) targeted strategies that independently address these complementary dimensions of biodiversity. Our findings highlight the need for multifaceted conservation approaches in this threatened biodiversity hotspot.
人口增长和人为土地利用变化是对全球生物多样性的最大威胁。虽然保护区是保护策略的基石,但它们的设计往往忽视了关键的生态功能和物种的进化史。本文分析了巴西塞拉多101个保护区鸟类和哺乳动物的物种丰富度、系统发育多样性和功能多样性是否受到人为压力的威胁,并测试了这三个生物多样性维度之间的关系。我们报告了三个主要发现。首先,系统发育和功能多样性最高的保护区集中在变化严重的景观中。其次,系统发育多样性和功能多样性在鸟类中呈弱正相关,在哺乳动物中不相关。这些结果表明,进化史并不是生态功能的可靠预测指标。因此,保护塞拉多的生物多样性需要:(1)采取紧急行动,减轻人类对保护区的影响;(2)采取有针对性的战略,独立解决生物多样性的这些互补方面。我们的发现强调了在这个受到威胁的生物多样性热点地区需要采取多方面的保护措施。
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引用次数: 0
Climatic drivers, future shifts, and conservation implications for Phragmites australis marshes in China 中国芦苇沼泽的气候驱动因素、未来变化及保护意义
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127201
Peng Zhang , Xianglong Jin , Qiyao Zhang , Anni Bao , Yanjing Lou
The extent to climate factors affects the distribution of widespread plant species and non-zonal wetland vegetation remains uncertain. This study used species distribution models coupled with the data of 256 Herbarium specimens, 270 field surveys points and high-resolution climate datasets, to check the impact of climate change on the distribution of Phragmites australis (a cosmopolitan wetland plant species) marsh in China. The results showed that thermal conditions (the temperature seasonality (Bio4) and the Mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10)) have a stronger influence on P. australis marshes than moisture conditions (precipitation seasonality (Bio15)). Niche analysis revealed that Bio4 and Bio10 exhibited unimodal and bimodal patterns (with peaks at 18.09 and 33.09 °C, respectively), whereas Bio15 followed a U-shaped curve, peaking at 150.84 %. By the 2050 s, the potential suitable habitat of P. australis marsh in China is projected to increase by 95.02 % ∼ 147.43 % under four climate scenarios. The surrounding areas of current nature reserves with extensive P. australis marshes are both potential expansion areas under future climate scenarios and regions in need of expanded protection. It can be seen that climatic factors can affect the distribution of widespread species and wetland vegetation, and future vegetation protection planning should take into account the impact of climate factors.
气候因子对广布植物物种和非地带性湿地植被分布的影响程度尚不确定。本文利用256份植物标本馆标本、270个野外调查点和高分辨率气候数据,建立了物种分布模型,探讨了气候变化对芦苇(芦苇是一种世界性湿地植物)在中国湿地分布的影响。结果表明,热条件(温度季节性(Bio4)和最暖季平均温度(Bio10))对南杨沼泽的影响大于湿条件(降水季节性(Bio15))。生态位分析结果显示,Bio4和Bio10表现为单峰型和双峰型,峰值分别为18.09°C和33.09°C,而Bio15表现为u型曲线,峰值为150.84%。在4种气候情景下,预计到2050年中国南菖蒲沼泽的潜在适宜生境将增加95.02% ~ 147.43%。现有自然保护区周边分布着广阔的南桫椤湿地,既是未来气候情景下潜在的扩展区,也是需要扩大保护的区域。可见,气候因素会影响广布物种和湿地植被的分布,未来的植被保护规划应考虑气候因素的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Mapping the fragility of Kashmir Valley’s ecosystems: A cutting-edge analysis using fuzzy extent and GIS techniques 绘制克什米尔山谷生态系统的脆弱性:使用模糊程度和GIS技术的前沿分析
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127187
Wani Suhail Ahmad , Saleha Jamal
This study assesses ecological vulnerability in the wetland catchments of Kashmir Valley (Wular, Anchar, and Hokersar) using fuzzy extent analysis integrated with GIS and multiple regression. Thirteen site-specific parameters were weighted and analyzed, with disturbance index (0.100), NDVI (0.096), forest fragmentation (0.095), vegetation type (0.095), and SAVI (0.094) emerging as the most significant contributors. Results reveal that 42.4 % of Wular catchment (302.64 km2) falls under high and very high vulnerability classes, while Anchar shows 76.78 km2 and Hokersar exhibits 118.28 km2 in these critical categories. Regression analysis (R2 > 0.65) identified biological richness, forest fragmentation, disturbance index, vegetation type, and NDMI as positively correlated with vulnerability, whereas NDSI, MNDWI, slope, and temperature showed significant negative associations (p < 0.05). These findings provide spatially explicit evidence for prioritizing ecological restoration in degraded zones and inform climate-adaptive wetland management strategies for Himalayan ecosystems.
本文采用模糊度分析、GIS和多元回归相结合的方法对克什米尔河谷(Wular、Anchar和Hokersar)湿地集水区的生态脆弱性进行了评价。结果表明,干扰指数(0.100)、NDVI(0.096)、森林破碎化程度(0.095)、植被类型(0.095)和SAVI(0.094)是最显著的影响因子。结果表明,Wular流域有42.4% (302.64 km2)属于高和高脆弱性等级,而Anchar和Hokersar分别为76.78 km2和118.28 km2。回归分析(R2 > 0.65)发现,生物丰富度、森林破碎度、干扰指数、植被类型和NDMI与脆弱性呈正相关,NDSI、MNDWI、坡度和温度与脆弱性呈显著负相关(p < 0.05)。这些研究结果为在退化区优先进行生态恢复提供了明确的空间证据,并为喜马拉雅生态系统的气候适应性湿地管理策略提供了信息。
{"title":"Mapping the fragility of Kashmir Valley’s ecosystems: A cutting-edge analysis using fuzzy extent and GIS techniques","authors":"Wani Suhail Ahmad ,&nbsp;Saleha Jamal","doi":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127187","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127187","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study assesses ecological vulnerability in the wetland catchments of Kashmir Valley (Wular, Anchar, and Hokersar) using fuzzy extent analysis integrated with GIS and multiple regression. Thirteen site-specific parameters were weighted and analyzed, with disturbance index (0.100), NDVI (0.096), forest fragmentation (0.095), vegetation type (0.095), and SAVI (0.094) emerging as the most significant contributors. Results reveal that 42.4 % of Wular catchment (302.64 km<sup>2</sup>) falls under high and very high vulnerability classes, while Anchar shows 76.78 km<sup>2</sup> and Hokersar exhibits 118.28 km<sup>2</sup> in these critical categories. Regression analysis (R<sup>2</sup> &gt; 0.65) identified biological richness, forest fragmentation, disturbance index, vegetation type, and NDMI as positively correlated with vulnerability, whereas NDSI, MNDWI, slope, and temperature showed significant negative associations (p &lt; 0.05). These findings provide spatially explicit evidence for prioritizing ecological restoration in degraded zones and inform climate-adaptive wetland management strategies for Himalayan ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54898,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Nature Conservation","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 127187"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145737555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Most South American cloud forests are likely to disappear under high-end climate change 大多数南美云雾林可能会在高端气候变化下消失
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127192
Patrícia Vieira Pompeu , Mark Mulligan , L. Adrian Bruijnzeel , João Carlos Pires-Oliveira , Alexandra G. Ponette-González , Kate A. Brauman , Pedro V. Eisenlohr , Martina Flörke , Marco Aurélio Leite Fontes , Paulo Petry , Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha
Montane Cloud Forests (MCFs) exhibit distinct hydrological behavior compared to most other forests and are characterized by a very high diversity of restricted-range (endemic) species. They are among the most threatened ecosystems on Earth due to habitat loss and climate change, which jointly undermine their biodiversity and water-provisioning services. Effective conservation planning therefore requires detailed assessments of both their current and projected distribution of MCFs, as well as the ecosystem services they provide. Here, we evaluate the effects of two climate change scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5, on the distribution of MCFs across South America and assess potential consequences for water supply to downstream populations. Using an ensemble consensus of eight machine-learning and regression models, we estimate that by 2070 approximately 12% (RCP2.6) and 91% (RCP8.5) of climatically suitable area for MCFs could be lost. These contractions would affect about 27% and 83% of the downstream populations currently benefiting from MCF-regulated water supply, respectively. Only about one-third of MCFs, under both current and future climate conditions, fall within existing protected areas. Our results underscore the urgent need for enhanced conservation and restoration initiatives, coupled with stronger global efforts to mitigate climate change, if these unique headwater ecosystems and their critical services are to persist.
与大多数其他森林相比,山地云雾林表现出独特的水文行为,其特点是限制范围(特有)物种的多样性非常高。由于栖息地丧失和气候变化,它们是地球上受威胁最严重的生态系统之一,这些生态系统共同破坏了它们的生物多样性和供水服务。因此,有效的保护规划需要详细评估它们目前和预计的mcf分布,以及它们提供的生态系统服务。在这里,我们评估了代表性浓度路径(RCP) 2.6和8.5两种气候变化情景对南美洲mcf分布的影响,并评估了下游人口供水的潜在后果。使用八种机器学习和回归模型的集合共识,我们估计到2070年,大约12% (RCP2.6)和91% (RCP8.5)的气候适宜mcf的面积可能会损失。这些收缩将分别影响27%和83%目前受益于mcf调节供水的下游人口。在当前和未来的气候条件下,只有大约三分之一的mcf位于现有的保护区内。我们的研究结果强调,如果这些独特的水源生态系统及其关键服务要持续下去,迫切需要加强保护和恢复举措,同时加强全球减缓气候变化的努力。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-species distribution modeling of big cats in the Chindwin River Watershed of Myanmar 缅甸钦德温河流域大型猫科动物的多物种分布模型
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127169
Theint Thandar Bol , Min Hein Htike , Todd K. Fuller , Saw Htun , Hla Naing , Saw Htoo Tha Po , Timothy O. Randhir
Large felids, including Bengal tigers (Panthera tigris tigris), Indochinese leopards (Panthera pardus delacouri), and Mainland clouded leopards (Neofelis nebulosa) in Southeast Asia, face imminent threats due to overexploitation, habitat destruction, and the adverse impacts of climate change. The Chindwin River Basin (CRB) in Myanmar has witnessed a decline in the populations of these big cats, attributed to deforestation, habitat loss, and illegal wildlife trade. This study addresses a crucial knowledge gap by assessing the combined impact of climate and land use on the distribution of large felids in the CRB. We gathered presence-only GPS points of three felid species through extensive camera trap surveys conducted between 2013 and 2018, primarily in critical areas of Hukaung Valley Wildlife Sanctuary, Htamanthi Wildlife Sanctuary, Alaungdaw Kathapa National Park, and Hphonkanrazi Wildlife Sanctuary. Incorporating environmental variables such as altitude, slope, aspect, land cover types, and bioclimatic data, we employed ten algorithms and an ensemble modeling approach to develop Species Distribution Models (SDMs) for the three felid species. Our study observes that suitable habitats for large felids in the CRB are not uniformly distributed. Although protected areas cover a significant portion of suitable habitat (57%), crucial areas outside reserves are indispensable for the survival of these species. Environmental variables, including elevation, slope, land cover types, and human-related activities, influence the distribution patterns. The intricate relationship of felids with river ecosystems emphasizes the necessity for targeted conservation measures along riparian zones. Climate variables, encompassing temperature and precipitation fluctuations, also significantly influence felid distribution. These findings underscore the importance of expanding conservation focus beyond existing protected areas to include key unprotected habitats and future connectivity corridors planning.
东南亚的孟加拉虎(Panthera tigris tigris)、印度支那豹(Panthera pardus delacouri)和大陆云豹(Neofelis nebulosa)等大型猫科动物由于过度开发、栖息地破坏和气候变化的不利影响而面临迫在眉睫的威胁。由于森林砍伐、栖息地丧失和非法野生动物贸易,缅甸钦德温河流域(CRB)的这些大型猫科动物数量正在下降。本研究通过评估气候和土地利用对CRB大型农田分布的综合影响,解决了一个关键的知识缺口。在2013年至2018年期间,我们通过广泛的相机陷阱调查,主要在Hukaung Valley野生动物保护区、Htamanthi野生动物保护区、Alaungdaw Kathapa国家公园和Hphonkanrazi野生动物保护区的关键区域收集了三种猫科动物的仅存在的GPS点。结合海拔、坡度、坡向、土地覆盖类型和生物气候等环境变量,采用10种算法和集成建模方法建立了3种野外物种的物种分布模型(SDMs)。我们的研究发现,CRB中大型田块的适宜生境分布并不均匀。虽然保护区覆盖了相当大一部分(57%)的适宜栖息地,但保护区之外的关键区域对这些物种的生存是不可或缺的。环境变量,包括海拔、坡度、土地覆盖类型和与人类有关的活动,都会影响分布格局。田野与河流生态系统的复杂关系强调了沿河岸带采取有针对性保护措施的必要性。包括温度和降水波动在内的气候变量也显著影响田间分布。这些发现强调了将保护重点从现有保护区扩展到包括关键的未受保护栖息地和未来连通性走廊规划的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation on the uninhabited island ecological sensitivity based on unique features, various disturbances, and ecological conditions 基于独特性、各种干扰和生态条件的无人岛生态敏感性评价
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127118
Yuan Chi , Jingkuan Sun , Tian Li
The ecological sensitivity in uninhabited islands denotes the susceptibility to degradation and low resilience in ecosystems arising from their unique features and exposure to various disturbances. Evaluating this sensitivity is particularly significant for implementing effective island integrated management strategies. We developed a robust evaluation model incorporating three critical dimensions: unique island features including form, isolation, terrain, and land cover; various disturbances consisting of natural factors such as meteorological, oceanic, geological, and biological influences along with diverse anthropogenic factors; and ecological conditions primarily represented by vegetation and soil characteristics. Through the integration of comprehensive fieldwork and advanced remote sensing data, this model was systematically applied to assess the uninhabited islands within northern China’s Miaodao Archipelago. The results demonstrated clear spatial heterogeneities in ecological sensitivity across two spatial scales. At the broader archipelago scale, quantitative assessments revealed that a majority of islands exhibited medium sensitivity levels, with both island area and distance to inhabited islands showing positive correlations with improved ecological conditions and enhanced disturbance resistance. When examining individual islands at finer scales, zones with medium, high, low, very low, and very high levels of uninhabited island ecosystem status followed a descending order of areas. Comparative analysis indicated that natural stresses exerted substantially greater influence on ecological sensitivity than human activities, with terrain characteristics and plant diversity emerging as the predominant factors driving spatial variance. While human impacts occurred at relatively low intensities overall, they nevertheless produced notable localized effects on sensitivity distribution patterns. These multi-scale spatial variations strongly emphasize the necessity for implementing precisely targeted conservation measures including establishing extensive and continuous ecological monitoring, carefully controlling and optimizing exploitation activities, and conducting scientifically informed ecological restoration projects to maintain uninhabited island ecosystems. The successful application of this evaluation model has conclusively verified its comprehensive nature, unique methodological approach, and ability to capture spatial heterogeneity, while simultaneously demonstrating its strong potential for assessing ecological sensitivity across diverse bedrock uninhabited island ecosystems worldwide.
无居民岛屿的生态敏感性是指由于其独特的特征和受到各种干扰而引起的生态系统对退化的易感性和低复原力。评价这种敏感性对于执行有效的岛屿综合管理战略特别重要。我们开发了一个包含三个关键维度的稳健评估模型:独特的岛屿特征,包括形状、隔离、地形和土地覆盖;由气象、海洋、地质和生物等自然因素以及各种人为因素构成的各种干扰;生态条件主要以植被和土壤特征为代表。通过综合野外调查和先进的遥感数据,系统地应用该模型对中国北部苗岛群岛的无人岛进行了评估。结果表明,生态敏感性在两个空间尺度上存在明显的空间异质性。在更广泛的群岛尺度上,定量评估显示,大多数岛屿表现出中等敏感性水平,岛屿面积和距离与生态条件的改善和抗干扰能力的增强呈正相关。在更精细的尺度上考察单个岛屿时,无人居住岛屿生态系统状态中、高、低、极低和非常高的区域依次递减。对比分析表明,自然胁迫对生态敏感性的影响明显大于人类活动,地形特征和植物多样性成为驱动空间变异的主要因素。虽然人类影响总体上发生的强度相对较低,但它们对敏感性分布模式产生了显著的局部影响。这些多尺度的空间变化强调了实施有针对性的保护措施的必要性,包括建立广泛和持续的生态监测,仔细控制和优化开发活动,以及开展科学的生态修复工程,以维持无人岛生态系统。该评价模型的成功应用,最终验证了该模型的全面性、独特的方法方法和捕捉空间异质性的能力,同时也显示了其在全球不同基岩荒岛生态系统生态敏感性评估中的强大潜力。
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引用次数: 0
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