Pub Date : 2025-12-30DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127207
Kyle Marshall , Lochran W. Traill , Kim Young-Overton , Xia Stevens , Will Donald , Davies Bubala , Lucky Mulenga , Mutakatala Kaponde , Blessing Samalesu , Edwin Phiri , Andrew B. Mulenga , Twakundine Simpamba , Adrian Kaluka , Paolo Strampelli
Mesopredators such as servals (Leptailurus serval) often receive less funding for research compared to charismatic large carnivores. However, understanding the population dynamics of the species is crucial for evidence-based conservation planning and management. This study investigates serval densities within Zambia’s Greater Kafue Ecosystem (GKE). Serval population density was estimated through camera trap surveys and spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) at a number of sites, five within the fully protected Kafue National Park (KNP) and six in adjacent Game Management Areas (GMAs), where human pressures are generally greater. The analysis revealed that serval densities in KNP ranged from 2.32 (SE: 1.26, 95 % CI: 0.06 – 4.84) to 5.84 individuals (SE: 1.35, 95 % CI: 3.01 – 7.43) per 100 km2. Serval population density within the GMAs exhibited marginally greater variability, with densities ranging from 1.32 (SE: 0.38, 95 % CI: 0.57 – 2.07) to 6.11 individuals (SE: 1.70, 95 % CI: 2.77 – 9.45) per 100 km2. Our findings suggest slightly higher mean densities within KNP compared to the GMAs, which may be a result of differences in habitat quality and human disturbance. Our study further demonstrates the efficacy of using SECR models on bycatch data from large carnivore surveys to estimate serval densities. Future research could identify the environmental and anthropogenic factors that determine serval densities in the GKE, and a longitudinal study will allow for serval densities to be tracked over time.
{"title":"Serval population status in the Greater Kafue Ecosystem, Zambia","authors":"Kyle Marshall , Lochran W. Traill , Kim Young-Overton , Xia Stevens , Will Donald , Davies Bubala , Lucky Mulenga , Mutakatala Kaponde , Blessing Samalesu , Edwin Phiri , Andrew B. Mulenga , Twakundine Simpamba , Adrian Kaluka , Paolo Strampelli","doi":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127207","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127207","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mesopredators such as servals (<em>Leptailurus serval</em>) often receive less funding for research compared to charismatic large carnivores. However, understanding the population dynamics of the species is crucial for evidence-based conservation planning and management. This study investigates serval densities within Zambia’s Greater Kafue Ecosystem (GKE). Serval population density was estimated through camera trap surveys and spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) at a number of sites, five within the fully protected Kafue National Park (KNP) and six in adjacent Game Management Areas (GMAs), where human pressures are generally greater. The analysis revealed that serval densities in KNP ranged from 2.32 (SE: 1.26, 95 % CI: 0.06 – 4.84) to 5.84 individuals (SE: 1.35, 95 % CI: 3.01 – 7.43) per 100 km2. Serval population density within the GMAs exhibited marginally greater variability, with densities ranging from 1.32 (SE: 0.38, 95 % CI: 0.57 – 2.07) to 6.11 individuals (SE: 1.70, 95 % CI: 2.77 – 9.45) per 100 km2. Our findings suggest slightly higher mean densities within KNP compared to the GMAs, which may be a result of differences in habitat quality and human disturbance. Our study further demonstrates the efficacy of using SECR models on bycatch data from large carnivore surveys to estimate serval densities. Future research could identify the environmental and anthropogenic factors that determine serval densities in the GKE, and a longitudinal study will allow for serval densities to be tracked over time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54898,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Nature Conservation","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 127207"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145884214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-25DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127198
Shakib Hadifar, Jamil Amanollahi, Loghman Emamgholi, Navid Zamani
Identifying ecotourism potential alone is insufficient for achieving sustainability unless ecological conditions are combined with an assessment of the social norms that influence environmental behavior. This study integrates GIS and remotely sensed data with a social-norm analysis to evaluate threats to sustainable ecotourism in the Badr and Parishan protected areas in Qorveh, Iran. Landsat OLI/TM imagery (30 m spatial resolution) and an AHP-based multi-criteria model were used to map ecotourism suitability based on eight indicators including land use, elevation, vegetation density, aspect, slope, soil taxonomy, distance from roads, and proximity to water sources. In parallel, 384 questionnaires were analyzed to examine three primary norms—legal, participatory, and normative beliefs—along with the intermediary variables of environmental concern (EC), awareness of negative consequences (ANCB), and acceptance of environmental responsibility (AER). Path analysis showed that legal norms (β = 0.329), normative beliefs (β = 0.371), and participatory norms (β = 0.220) exert the strongest direct effects on sustainable ecotourism, whereas EC (β = 0.124), ANCB (β = 0.074), and AER (β = 0.129) demonstrate weaker effects. Integrating spatial and behavioral components revealed that areas with high ecological suitability are simultaneously suitable for rainfed farming, making them vulnerable to land-use conversion if legal protection weakens. The findings highlight the need for targeted policy interventions, including strengthened legal enforcement in ecologically sensitive zones and community-based programs to enhance environmental responsibility.
{"title":"Investigating the threats of sustainable ecotourism by integrating the norms with GIS and remotely sensed data","authors":"Shakib Hadifar, Jamil Amanollahi, Loghman Emamgholi, Navid Zamani","doi":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127198","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127198","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Identifying ecotourism potential alone is insufficient for achieving sustainability unless ecological conditions are combined with an assessment of the social norms that influence environmental behavior. This study integrates GIS and remotely sensed data with a social-norm analysis to evaluate threats to sustainable ecotourism in the Badr and Parishan protected areas in Qorveh, Iran. Landsat OLI/TM imagery (30 m spatial resolution) and an AHP-based multi-criteria model were used to map ecotourism suitability based on eight indicators including land use, elevation, vegetation density, aspect, slope, soil taxonomy, distance from roads, and proximity to water sources. In parallel, 384 questionnaires were analyzed to examine three primary norms—legal, participatory, and normative beliefs—along with the intermediary variables of environmental concern (EC), awareness of negative consequences (ANCB), and acceptance of environmental responsibility (AER). Path analysis showed that legal norms (β = 0.329), normative beliefs (β = 0.371), and participatory norms (β = 0.220) exert the strongest direct effects on sustainable ecotourism, whereas EC (β = 0.124), ANCB (β = 0.074), and AER (β = 0.129) demonstrate weaker effects. Integrating spatial and behavioral components revealed that areas with high ecological suitability are simultaneously suitable for rainfed farming, making them vulnerable to land-use conversion if legal protection weakens. The findings highlight the need for targeted policy interventions, including strengthened legal enforcement in ecologically sensitive zones and community-based programs to enhance environmental responsibility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54898,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Nature Conservation","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 127198"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145884215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-23DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127205
Quanling Cai , Weidong Chen , Mingxing Wang , Kaisheng Di , Jie Yang
This study investigates how sustainable intelligence shapes residents’ attitudes and their support for sustainable tourism on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Data were collected from 717 residents using a structured questionnaire and analyzed through a multi-method approach combining Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), Fuzzy-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The research adopts an extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) framework by incorporating sustainable intelligence as a key antecedent influencing residents’ attitudes toward green tourism. The PLS-SEM results demonstrate that sustainable intelligence significantly and positively affects residents’ attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control, thereby enhancing their willingness to support green tourism. The fsQCA results identify two optimal configurations leading to high support, underscoring the joint importance of sustainable intelligence and perceived behavioral control. Furthermore, the ANN analysis reveals the nonlinear and complex interrelationships among variables, emphasizing the critical role of residents’ sustainability cognition and behavioral competence. Overall, this study provides a comprehensive and multi-dimensional understanding of residents’ support for green tourism, offering theoretical and practical insights for advancing sustainable tourism development in ecologically fragile regions.
{"title":"Understanding residents’ support for green tourism in ecologically fragile areas: integrating SEM, fsQCA, and ANN","authors":"Quanling Cai , Weidong Chen , Mingxing Wang , Kaisheng Di , Jie Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127205","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127205","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates how sustainable intelligence shapes residents’ attitudes and their support for sustainable tourism on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Data were collected from 717 residents using a structured questionnaire and analyzed through a multi-method approach combining Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), Fuzzy-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The research adopts an extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) framework by incorporating sustainable intelligence as a key antecedent influencing residents’ attitudes toward green tourism. The PLS-SEM results demonstrate that sustainable intelligence significantly and positively affects residents’ attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control, thereby enhancing their willingness to support green tourism. The fsQCA results identify two optimal configurations leading to high support, underscoring the joint importance of sustainable intelligence and perceived behavioral control. Furthermore, the ANN analysis reveals the nonlinear and complex interrelationships among variables, emphasizing the critical role of residents’ sustainability cognition and behavioral competence. Overall, this study provides a comprehensive and multi-dimensional understanding of residents’ support for green tourism, offering theoretical and practical insights for advancing sustainable tourism development in ecologically fragile regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54898,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Nature Conservation","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 127205"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Old-growth forests (OGF) play a critical role in biodiversity conservation and climate regulation. The preservation of Europe’s remaining OGFs is therefore essential and as such addressed in the European Union’s (EU’s) biodiversity strategy 2030. In order to strictly protect all remaining EU primary and OGFs, their locations and extent need to be mapped. Remote sensing (RS) offers the possibility to assess extensive and remote areas. This study evaluates the use of Sentinel-2 satellite images and airborne laser scanning (ALS) data for the assessment of dominant stand age and development classes for beech forests in four test sites located in three different biogeographical regions across Europe. We use up to 150 spectral, textural and height features as input to a random forest (RF) regression. Elevation consistently ranks among the top eight most important features, showing the highest importance in mountainous regions and the lowest in predominantly flat terrain. Texture, on the other hand, varies in importance across the sites and appears to be inversely related to elevation, with higher importance values observed in flat areas. Regarding spectral indices, the Normalized Difference Red Edge (NDRE1) emerges as a significant feature across most sites. Near and short-wave infrared and the third red-edge band are important individual features in several sites. Training data is derived from existing age maps. Validation is done using 512 independent field measurement plots. The results show overall accuracies (OA) for five structural development classes between 53 and 81 % for Sentinel-2 data only. Where available, ALS data increases the OA by about 6 %. When considering only two classes (OGF vs. non-OGF), the OA is between 59 % for Bulgaria with Sentinel-2 data only and 94 % for Belgium, when including ALS. Our approach is constrained by the potential unavailability of high-quality reference data for various biogeographical regions, as well as the limited accessibility of LiDAR data. The comparison with existing global RS-based maps evidently shows many more details and higher accuracy of our products. In comparison with a European map of existing primary forests, we see overall congruence, but also differences: our approach spots similar spectral and structural characteristics in areas outside the known primary or old-growth forests. RS can thus provide valuable spatial insights into potential OGF locations to better target field visits and facilitate the faster identification of currently unprotected OGFs.
{"title":"Classification of old-growth beech forest across Europe using Sentinel-2 and airborne laser scanning","authors":"Manuela Hirschmugl , Carina Sobe , Peter Meyer , Hanns Kirchmeir , Alfredo Di Filippo , Ruth Vanhaecht , Yanitsa Ivanova , Kris Vandekerkhove","doi":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127202","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127202","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Old-growth forests (OGF) play a critical role in biodiversity conservation and climate regulation. The preservation of Europe’s remaining OGFs is therefore essential and as such addressed in the European Union’s (EU’s) biodiversity strategy 2030. In order to strictly protect all remaining EU primary and OGFs, their locations and extent need to be mapped. Remote sensing (RS) offers the possibility to assess extensive and remote areas. This study evaluates the use of Sentinel-2 satellite images and airborne laser scanning (ALS) data for the assessment of dominant stand age and development classes for beech forests in four test sites located in three different biogeographical regions across Europe. We use up to 150 spectral, textural and height features as input to a random forest (RF) regression. Elevation consistently ranks among the top eight most important features, showing the highest importance in mountainous regions and the lowest in predominantly flat terrain. Texture, on the other hand, varies in importance across the sites and appears to be inversely related to elevation, with higher importance values observed in flat areas. Regarding spectral indices, the Normalized Difference Red Edge (NDRE1) emerges as a significant feature across most sites. Near and short-wave infrared and the third red-edge band are important individual features in several sites. Training data is derived from existing age maps. Validation is done using 512 independent field measurement plots. The results show overall accuracies (OA) for five structural development classes between 53 and 81 % for Sentinel-2 data only. Where available, ALS data increases the OA by about 6 %. When considering only two classes (OGF vs. non-OGF), the OA is between 59 % for Bulgaria with Sentinel-2 data only and 94 % for Belgium, when including ALS. Our approach is constrained by the potential unavailability of high-quality reference data for various biogeographical regions, as well as the limited accessibility of LiDAR data. The comparison with existing global RS-based maps evidently shows many more details and higher accuracy of our products. In comparison with a European map of existing primary forests, we see overall congruence, but also differences: our approach spots similar spectral and structural characteristics in areas outside the known primary or old-growth forests. RS can thus provide valuable spatial insights into potential OGF locations to better target field visits and facilitate the faster identification of currently unprotected OGFs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54898,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Nature Conservation","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 127202"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145941046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-20DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127204
Rhayane Pires Werneck, Fernando Landa Sobral, Marcus Vinicius Cianciaruso
Human population growth and anthropogenic land-use change are among the greatest threats to global biodiversity. Although protected areas are a cornerstone of conservation strategy, their design often overlooks critical ecological functions and the evolutionary history of species. Here, we evaluated whether species richness, phylogenetic diversity and functional diversity of birds and mammals across 101 protected areas in Brazil’s Cerrado biome are threatened by anthropogenic pressures, and tested the relationships among these three biodiversity dimensions. We report three main findings. First, protected areas with the highest values of both phylogenetic and functional diversity are concentrated in heavily altered landscapes. Second, phylogenetic and functional diversity were only weakly and positively correlated in birds, and not related in mammals. These results show that evolutionary history is not a reliable predictor of ecological function. Therefore, conserving the Cerrado’s biodiversity requires (1) urgent action to mitigate human impacts within protected areas, and (2) targeted strategies that independently address these complementary dimensions of biodiversity. Our findings highlight the need for multifaceted conservation approaches in this threatened biodiversity hotspot.
{"title":"Protected areas with high species, phylogenetic, and functional diversity are complementary and occur in heavily modified Cerrado landscapes","authors":"Rhayane Pires Werneck, Fernando Landa Sobral, Marcus Vinicius Cianciaruso","doi":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127204","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127204","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Human population growth and anthropogenic land-use change are among the greatest threats to global biodiversity. Although protected areas are a cornerstone of conservation strategy, their design often overlooks critical ecological functions and the evolutionary history of species. Here, we evaluated whether species richness, phylogenetic diversity and functional diversity of birds and mammals across 101 protected areas in Brazil’s Cerrado biome are threatened by anthropogenic pressures, and tested the relationships among these three biodiversity dimensions. We report three main findings. First, protected areas with the highest values of both phylogenetic and functional diversity are concentrated in heavily altered landscapes. Second, phylogenetic and functional diversity were only weakly and positively correlated in birds, and not related in mammals. These results show that evolutionary history is not a reliable predictor of ecological function. Therefore, conserving the Cerrado’s biodiversity requires (1) urgent action to mitigate human impacts within protected areas, and (2) targeted strategies that independently address these complementary dimensions of biodiversity. Our findings highlight the need for multifaceted conservation approaches in this threatened biodiversity hotspot.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54898,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Nature Conservation","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 127204"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127200
Anteneh Bongasie , Tae-Su Kim , Shraddha Tiwari, Jun-Young Kim, Thakur Dhakal, Gab-Sue Jang
Vegetation serves a critical role in stabilizing and regulating Earth’s systems, necessitating the monitoring of its dynamics for effective ecosystem conservation. Protected areas (PAs) are the key zones for assessing global vegetation responses to environmental change. However, the vegetation dynamics of Ethiopia’s Afroalpine and sub-Afroalpine PAs remain poorly studied, despite their ecological significance, high endemism, and vulnerability to climate change. Therefore, this study explores the vegetation–climate relationships of the Simien Mountains (SM) and Bale Mountains (BM) over a 21-year period (2000–2020) by analyzing time-series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), temperature and precipitation data derived from remote sensing database. We adopted bivariate ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and Pearson correlation analyses to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and relationships between vegetation dynamics and climatic variables. We observed that both BM and SM exhibited fluctuations in average annual NDVI/EVI values with overall positive trends. NDVI/EVI significantly increased in SM (R = 0.49, 0.51; p = 0.023, 0.017), and insignificant increased trend in BM (R = 0.32, 0.27; p = 0.16, 0.24). Regarding climatic variables, precipitation and temperature trends differed between BM and SM. In BM, both precipitation and temperature showed an increasing trend, whereas in SM, precipitation exhibited an incremental and temperature as a decreased trend. Notably, temperature variations in SM exert a greater influence on vegetation compared to those in BM. This study underscores divergent vegetation-climate responses, implications for biodiversity conservation and offers valuable insights for scholars and decision-makers to monitor vegetation dynamics and to design climate change mitigation strategies aligned with achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
植被在稳定和调节地球系统方面起着至关重要的作用,为了有效地保护生态系统,必须监测其动态。保护区是评估全球植被对环境变化响应的关键区域。然而,埃塞俄比亚非洲高山和亚非洲高山保护区的植被动态研究仍然很少,尽管它们具有生态意义,高度地方性和易受气候变化的影响。基于此,本研究通过分析遥感数据库的时间序列归一化植被指数(NDVI)、增强植被指数(EVI)、温度和降水数据,探讨了2000-2020年四眠山(SM)和贝尔山(BM) 21 a的植被—气候关系。采用双变量普通最小二乘(OLS)回归和Pearson相关分析,探讨了植被动态变化与气候变量之间的时空格局和关系。我们观察到BM和SM的年平均NDVI/EVI值都呈现出总体正趋势的波动。SM组NDVI/EVI显著升高(R = 0.49, 0.51; p = 0.023, 0.017), BM组NDVI/EVI升高趋势不显著(R = 0.32, 0.27; p = 0.16, 0.24)。在气候变量方面,降水和温度趋势在东北和东北地区存在差异。BM地区降水和气温均呈增加趋势,SM地区降水呈增加趋势,气温呈减少趋势。值得注意的是,与BM相比,SM温度变化对植被的影响更大。该研究强调了不同的植被-气候响应及其对生物多样性保护的影响,并为学者和决策者监测植被动态和设计与实现可持续发展目标(SDGs)相一致的气候变化减缓战略提供了有价值的见解。
{"title":"Assessing 21-Years (2000–2020) vegetation dynamics and climatic response in Afroalpine and Sub-Afroalpine protected areas of Ethiopia using remote sensing","authors":"Anteneh Bongasie , Tae-Su Kim , Shraddha Tiwari, Jun-Young Kim, Thakur Dhakal, Gab-Sue Jang","doi":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127200","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127200","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vegetation serves a critical role in stabilizing and regulating Earth’s systems, necessitating the monitoring of its dynamics for effective ecosystem conservation. Protected areas (PAs) are the key zones for assessing global vegetation responses to environmental change. However, the vegetation dynamics of Ethiopia’s Afroalpine and sub-Afroalpine PAs remain poorly studied, despite their ecological significance, high endemism, and vulnerability to climate change. Therefore, this study explores the vegetation–climate relationships of the Simien Mountains (SM) and Bale Mountains (BM) over a 21-year period (2000–2020) by analyzing time-series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), temperature and precipitation data derived from remote sensing database. We adopted bivariate ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and Pearson correlation analyses to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and relationships between vegetation dynamics and climatic variables. We observed that both BM and SM exhibited fluctuations in average annual NDVI/EVI values with overall positive trends. NDVI/EVI significantly increased in SM (R = 0.49, 0.51; p = 0.023, 0.017), and insignificant increased trend in BM (R = 0.32, 0.27; p = 0.16, 0.24). Regarding climatic variables, precipitation and temperature trends differed between BM and SM. In BM, both precipitation and temperature showed an increasing trend, whereas in SM, precipitation exhibited an incremental and temperature as a decreased trend. Notably, temperature variations in SM exert a greater influence on vegetation compared to those in BM. This study underscores divergent vegetation-climate responses, implications for biodiversity conservation and offers valuable insights for scholars and decision-makers to monitor vegetation dynamics and to design climate change mitigation strategies aligned with achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54898,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Nature Conservation","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 127200"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-18DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127199
Maria Neelam, Asma Jabeen
Mountain ungulates across Asia face increasing conservation challenges due to habitat fragmentation, land use change, and climate variability. The Punjab Urial, an endemic wild sheep confined to the Potohar Plateau and Salt Range of northern Pakistan, is particularly vulnerable due to its localized range and habitat specificity. Despite its threatened status, little is known about the species’ spatial ecology or future habitat prospects under climate change. To address this gap, this study employed species distribution modeling to assess current and future habitat suitability of Punjab Urial under projected climatic and land use scenarios. Using a presence-only MaxEnt algorithm and 217 verified occurrence records, we developed habitat suitability models based on a carefully selected set of eight environmental variables. These included bioclimatic, topographic, and anthropogenic predictors, optimized through correlation filtering and ecological relevance. Model performance was evaluated using AUC and omission rates, while habitat suitability outputs were classified into four categories. Future distributions were modeled under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios for three time periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100). The results revealed strong model performance (mean AUC = 0.901). Land Use Land Cover (LULC) was the most influential variable, followed by temperature seasonality and precipitation of the driest month. Suitable habitats were currently concentrated in Khushab, Chakwal, and Jhelum, with preference for moderately rugged terrain and slopes between 20 and 30 degrees. Future projections indicated expansion of suitable areas along the Salt Range, especially under high-emission scenarios. New zones of suitability were identified in Rawalpindi, Talagang, and Kotli Sattian, with evidence of upward altitudinal shifts. However, urban and cultivated areas remained persistently unsuitable, emphasizing the constraint of land use pressure despite climatic favorability. These findings underscore the need for adaptive landscape-level planning that integrates climate resilience, land use regulation, and habitat connectivity to ensure the long-term persistence of Punjab Urial populations.
{"title":"Range dynamics and habitat shifts of Punjab Urial (Ovis vignei punjabiensis) in response to future climatic variability","authors":"Maria Neelam, Asma Jabeen","doi":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127199","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127199","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mountain ungulates across Asia face increasing conservation challenges due to habitat fragmentation, land use change, and climate variability. The Punjab Urial, an endemic wild sheep confined to the Potohar Plateau and Salt Range of northern Pakistan, is particularly vulnerable due to its localized range and habitat specificity. Despite its threatened status, little is known about the species’ spatial ecology or future habitat prospects under climate change. To address this gap, this study employed species distribution modeling to assess current and future habitat suitability of Punjab Urial under projected climatic and land use scenarios. Using a presence-only MaxEnt algorithm and 217 verified occurrence records, we developed habitat suitability models based on a carefully selected set of eight environmental variables. These included bioclimatic, topographic, and anthropogenic predictors, optimized through correlation filtering and ecological relevance. Model performance was evaluated using AUC and omission rates, while habitat suitability outputs were classified into four categories. Future distributions were modeled under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios for three time periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100). The results revealed strong model performance (mean AUC = 0.901). Land Use Land Cover (LULC) was the most influential variable, followed by temperature seasonality and precipitation of the driest month. Suitable habitats were currently concentrated in Khushab, Chakwal, and Jhelum, with preference for moderately rugged terrain and slopes between 20 and 30 degrees. Future projections indicated expansion of suitable areas along the Salt Range, especially under high-emission scenarios. New zones of suitability were identified in Rawalpindi, Talagang, and Kotli Sattian, with evidence of upward altitudinal shifts. However, urban and cultivated areas remained persistently unsuitable, emphasizing the constraint of land use pressure despite climatic favorability. These findings underscore the need for adaptive landscape-level planning that integrates climate resilience, land use regulation, and habitat connectivity to ensure the long-term persistence of Punjab Urial populations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54898,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Nature Conservation","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 127199"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145790655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-18DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127201
Peng Zhang , Xianglong Jin , Qiyao Zhang , Anni Bao , Yanjing Lou
The extent to climate factors affects the distribution of widespread plant species and non-zonal wetland vegetation remains uncertain. This study used species distribution models coupled with the data of 256 Herbarium specimens, 270 field surveys points and high-resolution climate datasets, to check the impact of climate change on the distribution of Phragmites australis (a cosmopolitan wetland plant species) marsh in China. The results showed that thermal conditions (the temperature seasonality (Bio4) and the Mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10)) have a stronger influence on P. australis marshes than moisture conditions (precipitation seasonality (Bio15)). Niche analysis revealed that Bio4 and Bio10 exhibited unimodal and bimodal patterns (with peaks at 18.09 and 33.09 °C, respectively), whereas Bio15 followed a U-shaped curve, peaking at 150.84 %. By the 2050 s, the potential suitable habitat of P. australis marsh in China is projected to increase by 95.02 % ∼ 147.43 % under four climate scenarios. The surrounding areas of current nature reserves with extensive P. australis marshes are both potential expansion areas under future climate scenarios and regions in need of expanded protection. It can be seen that climatic factors can affect the distribution of widespread species and wetland vegetation, and future vegetation protection planning should take into account the impact of climate factors.
{"title":"Climatic drivers, future shifts, and conservation implications for Phragmites australis marshes in China","authors":"Peng Zhang , Xianglong Jin , Qiyao Zhang , Anni Bao , Yanjing Lou","doi":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127201","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127201","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The extent to climate factors affects the distribution of widespread plant species and non-zonal wetland vegetation remains uncertain. This study used species distribution models coupled with the data of 256 Herbarium specimens, 270 field surveys points and high-resolution climate datasets, to check the impact of climate change on the distribution of <em>Phragmites australis</em> (a cosmopolitan wetland plant species) marsh in China. The results showed that thermal conditions (the temperature seasonality (Bio4) and the Mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10)) have a stronger influence on <em>P. australis</em> marshes than moisture conditions (precipitation seasonality (Bio15)). Niche analysis revealed that Bio4 and Bio10 exhibited unimodal and bimodal patterns (with peaks at 18.09 and 33.09 °C, respectively), whereas Bio15 followed a U-shaped curve, peaking at 150.84 %. By the 2050 s, the potential suitable habitat of <em>P. australis</em> marsh in China is projected to increase by 95.02 % ∼ 147.43 % under four climate scenarios. The surrounding areas of current nature reserves with extensive <em>P. australis</em> marshes are both potential expansion areas under future climate scenarios and regions in need of expanded protection. It can be seen that climatic factors can affect the distribution of widespread species and wetland vegetation, and future vegetation protection planning should take into account the impact of climate factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54898,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Nature Conservation","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 127201"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-15DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127196
Paolo Casula , Giovanni Amori , Francesco Curreli , Mauro Fois , Luca Luiselli , Michela Marignani , Francesco Palmas , Andrea Sabatini , Leonardo Vignoli
Taxonomic instability arising from pluralism has been difficult to handle for conservationists, as they generally expect from taxonomy a stable nomenclature and species delimitation criteria within a unified species concept. While taxonomic monism, i.e. the search for a unified species concept, can be desirable on theoretical grounds, taxonomic pluralism appears unavoidable on practical or operational grounds. Pluralism, the diversity of views and perspectives about “what and how” to study, is also an intrinsic positive feature of science; thus, it is useful for taxonomic progress. Here, we review relevant insights coming from philosophy of science, taxonomy, biodiversity conservation and socioecological studies to discuss a) what are the objects of conservation of biodiversity, b) links between conservation practice and taxonomy, c) examples showing that taxonomies developed within traditional ecological knowledge systems overlap and complement academic taxonomy and contain relevant biological information for conservation, and d) some consequences of overstating monistic taxonomy in conservation. With a caveat about the risk of overstating pluralistic taxonomy, we underline that developing an intercultural perspective on taxonomies is a necessary step toward understanding different knowledge systems and valuing useful information for effective biodiversity conservation management.
{"title":"Is monistic taxonomy useful for conservation of biodiversity?","authors":"Paolo Casula , Giovanni Amori , Francesco Curreli , Mauro Fois , Luca Luiselli , Michela Marignani , Francesco Palmas , Andrea Sabatini , Leonardo Vignoli","doi":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127196","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127196","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Taxonomic instability arising from pluralism has been difficult to handle for conservationists, as they generally expect from taxonomy a stable nomenclature and species delimitation criteria within a unified species concept. While taxonomic monism, i.e. the search for a unified species concept, can be desirable on theoretical grounds, taxonomic pluralism appears unavoidable on practical or operational grounds. Pluralism, the diversity of views and perspectives about “what and how” to study, is also an intrinsic positive feature of science; thus, it is useful for taxonomic progress. Here, we review relevant insights coming from philosophy of science, taxonomy, biodiversity conservation and socioecological studies to discuss a) what are the objects of conservation of biodiversity, b) links between conservation practice and taxonomy, c) examples showing that taxonomies developed within traditional ecological knowledge systems overlap and complement academic taxonomy and contain relevant biological information for conservation, and d) some consequences of overstating monistic taxonomy in conservation. With a caveat about the risk of overstating pluralistic taxonomy, we underline that developing an intercultural perspective on taxonomies is a necessary step toward understanding different knowledge systems and valuing useful information for effective biodiversity conservation management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54898,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Nature Conservation","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 127196"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145790802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-15DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127195
Caiyi Li , Wenpeng Du , Hao Zhang , Liangrui Ge , Ruoang Feng
National parks have gained recognition as nature-based solutions for biodiversity conservation. Habitat quality (HQ) is core metric for reflecting the regional habitats’ suitability for survival and persistence, but the original InVEST HQ module cannot accurately depict HQ dynamics in protected regions. This study measured the HQs in three Chinese national parks by adjusting fixed habitat suitability parameters with vegetation indices, focusing on HQ changes pre- and post- approval and differences between national parks and their surroundings to revealing the policy’s effectiveness. The results revealed that HQs within three national parks were obviously better than those in their surroundings. More importantly, the changing trends in HQs within national parks were significantly better than those in their surroundings during the postapproval phase (2016–2022), which suggested that national park policies played a positive role in habitat conservation. The HQs in all national parks increased during the preapproval phase, but the HQ dynamics differed in the postapproval phase. Specifically, HQs of Wuyishan National Park, Giant Panda National Park and Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park fluctuated, increased and decreased, respectively. Natural factors were the dominant factors contributing to HQ differences within national parks. The effects of socioeconomic interactions on HQ in Wuyishan and Giant Panda National Park gradually weakened. However, in Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park, socioeconomic interactions increased from 2016 to 2022, which may have contributed to the decrease in the HQ. This study offers a methodological reference for HQ assessment in protected regions and provides scientific support for national park management.
{"title":"Habitat quality in China’s national parks and their surroundings by modifying the InVEST model","authors":"Caiyi Li , Wenpeng Du , Hao Zhang , Liangrui Ge , Ruoang Feng","doi":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127195","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127195","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>National parks have gained recognition as nature-based solutions for biodiversity conservation. Habitat quality (HQ) is core metric for reflecting the regional habitats’ suitability for survival and persistence, but the original InVEST HQ module cannot accurately depict HQ dynamics in protected regions. This study measured the HQs in three Chinese national parks by adjusting fixed habitat suitability parameters with vegetation indices, focusing on HQ changes pre- and post- approval and differences between national parks and their surroundings to revealing the policy’s effectiveness. The results revealed that HQs within three national parks were obviously better than those in their surroundings. More importantly, the changing trends in HQs within national parks were significantly better than those in their surroundings during the postapproval phase (2016–2022), which suggested that national park policies played a positive role in habitat conservation. The HQs in all national parks increased during the preapproval phase, but the HQ dynamics differed in the postapproval phase. Specifically, HQs of Wuyishan National Park, Giant Panda National Park and Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park fluctuated, increased and decreased, respectively. Natural factors were the dominant factors contributing to HQ differences within national parks. The effects of socioeconomic interactions on HQ in Wuyishan and Giant Panda National Park gradually weakened. However, in Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park, socioeconomic interactions increased from 2016 to 2022, which may have contributed to the decrease in the HQ. This study offers a methodological reference for HQ assessment in protected regions and provides scientific support for national park management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54898,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Nature Conservation","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 127195"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145790804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}