Journal for Nature Conservation最新文献_第4页

Spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and Indian pangolin habitat in western Pakistan: insights from landsat imagery and generalized linear models 巴基斯坦西部土地利用和印度穿山甲栖息地的时空动态：来自陆地卫星图像和广义线性模型的见解

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127197

Tariq Ahmad , Arshad Ali , Faraz Akrim , Bo Li , Faizan Ahmad , Khuzin Dinislam

The Indian pangolin (Manis crassicaudata) is an endangered, nocturnal mammal threatened by habitat loss and illegal trade. This study explores the spatio-temporal effects of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on their occurrence in six districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, from 2003 to 2023. It examines the impact of habitat type, elevation, soil pH, Landsat indices (NDVI, NDMI, NDWI), and climate variables (precipitation, mean temperature). Using multitemporal Landsat imagery and binomial generalized linear models (GLMs) at the site level (2 km line-transects, 50 m strip width; 0.10k m2 per site), we analyzed changes in LULC and their influence on pangolin 2023 presence and regional extirpation (present in 2003 but absent in 2023), which was supported by field surveys and local reports. The investigation highlights significant shifts in habitat suitability amid rapid urbanization and landscape transformations. Field surveys and local reports confirm the presence of pangolins in all varieties of habitats. We modeled site-level presence/absence and a binary extirpation outcome (present in 2003, absent in 2023), screened predictors for collinearity (|r| ≥ 0.7), tested residual spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I; not significant), and evaluated discrimination with spatial cross-validation. The final 2023 presence model retained elevation, soil pH, NDWI, and temperature; the extirpation model retained ΔNDMI, ΔNDWI, Δprecipitation, Δtemperature, elevation, and soil pH. Spatial cross-validated AUCs were low (≈0.49–0.50), and odds-ratio 95 % CIs overlapped 1, indicating that vegetation indices and coarse climate alone did not strongly explain present occupancy or local loss at the analyzed scale. Land-use and land-cover analysis exposed a rapid urban expansion, with built-up areas increasing by 1,130.47 km² and barren lands declining by 1,274.14 km². Forested habitats that supported pangolins in 2003 showed reduced suitability by 2023, with the species disappearing from 35 of 102 sites. These regional extirpations showed the impact of habitat changes and urbanization on pangolin persistence. The findings underscore the need for wildlife corridors, habitat restoration, and sustainable land-use planning to mitigate further biodiversity loss.

印度穿山甲（maniis crassicaudata）是一种濒危的夜行哺乳动物，受到栖息地丧失和非法贸易的威胁。研究了2003 - 2023年巴基斯坦开伯尔-普赫图赫瓦省6个地区土地利用和土地覆盖变化对土地利用和土地覆盖发生的时空影响。它考察了生境类型、海拔、土壤pH、Landsat指数（NDVI、NDMI、NDWI）和气候变量（降水、平均温度）的影响。利用多时相Landsat影像和二项广义线性模型（GLMs）在立地水平（2 km样线，50 m条宽，0.10k m2 /立地）分析了LULC的变化及其对穿山甲2023年存在和区域灭绝（2003年有，2023年无）的影响。该调查强调了在快速城市化和景观转变中栖息地适宜性的重大变化。实地调查和当地报告证实穿山甲在各种栖息地都有存在。我们对站点水平的存在/缺失和二元剔除结果（2003年存在，2023年不存在）进行建模，筛选共线性预测因子（|或|≥0.7），检验残差空间自相关性（Moran 's I；不显著），并通过空间交叉验证评估歧视。最终的2023年存在模型保留了海拔、土壤pH、NDWI和温度；该模型保留了ΔNDMI、ΔNDWI、Δprecipitation、Δtemperature、海拔和土壤ph。空间交叉验证的auc较低（≈0.49-0.50），比值比95%的ci重叠为1，表明仅植被指数和粗糙气候不能很好地解释所分析尺度上的当前占用或局部损失。土地利用和土地覆被分析显示城市扩张迅速，建成区面积增加1,130.47 km2，荒地面积减少1,274.14 km2。2003年支持穿山甲的森林栖息地在2023年显示出适应性下降，102个地点中的35个已经消失。这些区域灭绝显示了栖息地变化和城市化对穿山甲持久性的影响。研究结果强调了野生动物走廊、栖息地恢复和可持续土地利用规划的必要性，以减轻进一步的生物多样性丧失。

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引用次数: 0

Beyond coverage: Effectiveness of Natura 2000 network in conserving breeding bird populations in a highly anthropogenic region 覆盖范围之外：Natura 2000网络在高度人为活动地区保护繁殖鸟类种群的有效性

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127194

Juan Arizaga , Maite Laso , Olatz Aizpurua , Luis M. Carrascal

Protected areas are central to global biodiversity conservation, yet their effectiveness in safeguarding species remains debated, particularly in highly anthropogenic landscapes. In Europe, the Natura 2000 network is the largest protected-area system, designed to ensure the survival of threatened species and habitats, but its capacity to halt biodiversity loss and host large fractions of species populations remains unclear. The Basque Country (northern Spain) is one of the most industrialized and densely populated regions in Europe, situated at a climatic and biogeographic transitional area between the Mediterranean and Atlantic domains. Using fine-scale data from the recent breeding bird atlas, we assessed the effectiveness of Natura 2000 sites in conserving regional breeding bird populations. The analysis of 127 native breeding species revealed that only 18.6% of their total breeding populations occurred inside Natura 2000, slightly below the 23% of land it covers. Species associated with mountains, wetlands, and marine cliffs were proportionally overrepresented, whereas those inhabiting urban, agricultural and forest landscapes were underrepresented. Species with increasing population trends, and those listed as threatened regionally or in Annex I of the Birds Directive, showed higher representation, reflecting partial policy success but persistent habitat-specific gaps. We also evaluated the role of body size, which was found to show no clear association with population representation in Natura 2000. These findings demonstrate that Natura 2000 plays an important role in conserving species of concern and in less disturbed habitats, but is insufficient to secure populations in agricultural, urban, and forest landscapes. In an industrialized and densely populated region, effective conservation requires stronger integration of protected areas with agricultural, forestry, and urban policies to achieve EU biodiversity goals.

保护区是全球生物多样性保护的核心，但其在保护物种方面的有效性仍存在争议，特别是在高度人为景观中。在欧洲，Natura 2000网络是最大的保护区系统，旨在确保受威胁物种和栖息地的生存，但其阻止生物多样性丧失和容纳大量物种种群的能力尚不清楚。巴斯克地区（西班牙北部）是欧洲工业化程度最高、人口最稠密的地区之一，位于地中海和大西洋之间的气候和生物地理过渡区。利用最近的繁殖鸟类地图集的精细尺度数据，我们评估了Natura 2000站点在保护区域繁殖鸟类种群方面的有效性。对127种本地繁殖物种的分析显示，只有18.6%的繁殖种群出现在Natura 2000中，略低于其覆盖土地的23%。与山地、湿地和海洋悬崖相关的物种比例过高，而居住在城市、农业和森林景观的物种比例偏低。种群数量呈增长趋势的物种，以及被列为区域受威胁物种或列入《鸟类指令》附件一的物种的代表性更高，反映了政策的部分成功，但栖息地差异持续存在。我们还评估了身体大小的作用，在Natura 2000中发现它与种群代表性没有明确的关联。这些发现表明，Natura 2000在保护受关注的物种和较少受干扰的栖息地方面发挥了重要作用，但不足以保护农业、城市和森林景观中的物种。在工业化和人口密集的地区，有效的保护需要将保护区与农业、林业和城市政策更紧密地结合起来，以实现欧盟的生物多样性目标。

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引用次数: 0

The impacts of hydrogeomorphic dynamics of a braided river and damming on gymnocypris eckloni habitat 辫状河水文地貌动力学及筑坝对裸鲤生境的影响

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127190

William Bol Yaak Giet , Yacun Yang , Zhiwei Li , Chenyang Cao , Qianqian Wang , Shikang Liu , Nan Wang , Hao Zheng , Yingjun Xu , Weiwei Yao

Braided rivers are vital ecosystems with intricate channel systems that support diverse aquatic life; yet their hydrogeomorphic complexity and the impacts of damming on Gymnocypris eckloni (G. eckloni) remain poorly understood. This study focuses on the Guide Reach of the upper Yellow River, examining how these factors (hydrogeomorphic complexity of braided channels and damming) affect G. eckloni habitat. We developed an ecohydraulic model integrated with TELEMAC 2D to assess hydrodynamic conditions across different discharge scenarios and to evaluate dam impacts over five key years: 1976 (before dams), 1987, 1997, 2007 (during dam construction), and 2017 (after dams). The results show significant changes in flow velocities due to dam construction. For instance, average low discharge velocities rose from 0.1- 0.15 m/s in 1976 to around 0.2 m/s from 1987 to 2017, altering river channels and negatively impacting G. eckloni, especially during spawning. Spawning success was closely linked to substrate quality (r(HSI-substrate) ≈0.82; p < 0.01) but less so to water depth (r(HSI-depth) ≈ 0.2; p < 0.01), highlighting their sensitivity to substrate changes. Moderate discharge appears beneficial for habitat quality, suggesting that effective management of river systems is essential for maintaining ecological integrity and preserving biodiversity in these vulnerable freshwater habitats.

辫状河是重要的生态系统，拥有复杂的河道系统，支持着多种水生生物；然而，它们的水文地貌复杂性和筑坝对eckloni裸鱼（G. eckloni）的影响仍然知之甚少。本研究以黄河上游导流段为研究对象，探讨辫状河道水文地貌复杂性和筑坝等因素对黄颡鱼生境的影响。我们开发了一个与TELEMAC 2D集成的生态水力模型，以评估不同排放情景下的水动力条件，并评估五个关键年份(1976年（大坝建成前）、1987年、1997年、2007年（大坝建设期间）和2017年（大坝建成后）的大坝影响。结果表明，由于大坝建设，水流速度发生了显著变化。例如，平均低流量速度从1976年的0.1- 0.15 m/s上升到1987年至2017年的0.2 m/s左右，改变了河道并对G. eckloni产生了负面影响，特别是在产卵期间。产卵成功率与底物质量密切相关(r（hsi -底物）≈0.82；p < 0.01)，但对水深的影响较小(r(HSI-depth)≈0.2；P < 0.01)，突出了它们对底物变化的敏感性。适度排放似乎有利于生境质量，这表明有效管理河流系统对于维持这些脆弱淡水生境的生态完整性和保护生物多样性至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Quantification of biotic pressure in Ravangla-Bhaleydhunga trekking route located within Maenam Wildlife Sanctuary, Sikkim, India 印度锡金Maenam野生动物保护区的Ravangla-Bhaleydhunga徒步路线上生物压力的量化

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127193

Muna Devi Gurung , Santanu Gupta , Hema Gupta Joshi

Maenam Wildlife Sanctuary (MWS) situated in South Sikkim, India, is a treasure house of medicine, the literal meaning of its name, and famous for bird diversity attracts bird lovers across the region. MWS is famous for its 13 km long Ravangla – Bhaleydhunga trekking corridor within the park which attracts large number of national and international trekkers. In this paper, the impact of trekking on wood cutting, and local dependency on the forest resources are quantified and the impact of biotic interferences in lower and upper forests of the trekking route are compared. The percentage of cut trees in the study area was 19 % in lower forest, and only 2 % in upper forest (t-test significance, p < 0.05). Nearly 26 % of the woody trees were found lopped in the lower forest whereas only 3 % of trees were lopped in upper forest (p < 0.05). The percentage of cut shrub was much higher in lower forest (44 %) than in upper forest (14 %) of study area. Species like Myrsine capitellata Wall. (45 %), Brassaiopsis mitis C. B. Clarke (29 %), and Viburnum erubescens Wall (26 %) were found frequently cut by the trekking groups and local people. In comparison to the lower hill forest, the upper hill forest was found relatively undisturbed with around 7 % cut trees for Meliosma wallichii Planch. ex Hook.f. and surprisingly 13 % cut trees of Rhododendron grande Wight, the species that was completely absent in the lower hills forest. The most often cut and lopped species in the trekking route have both maximum fuel and ethnomedicinal values.

Maenam野生动物保护区（MWS）位于印度锡金南部，是医学宝库，其名称的字面意思是鸟类多样性，吸引了整个地区的鸟类爱好者。MWS以其公园内长达13公里的Ravangla - Bhaleydhunga徒步走廊而闻名，吸引了大量的国内和国际徒步旅行者。本文量化了徒步旅行对木材采伐的影响，以及当地对森林资源的依赖，并比较了徒步旅行路线上下森林中生物干扰的影响。研究区下层林采伐率为19%，上层林采伐率仅为2% （t检验显著性，p < 0.05）。近26%的木本树木在下层林被砍伐，而上层林只有3%的树木被砍伐（p < 0.05）。研究区林下灌木采伐率（44%）远高于林下灌木采伐率（14%）。种像小头麦丝莲壁。其中，Brassaiopsis mitis C. B. Clarke（29%）和Viburnum erubescens Wall（26%）经常被徒步探险者和当地人砍伐。与低山林相比，高山林被发现相对未受干扰，约有7%的树木被砍伐。Hook.f交货。令人惊讶的是，13%的人砍伐了大白杜鹃（Rhododendron grande Wight），这种物种在低山林中完全不存在。在徒步旅行路线上最常被砍伐的物种具有最大的燃料和民族药用价值。

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引用次数: 0

Climate-driven habitat collapse of an endemic medicinal plant: Ensemble modeling reveals Echinops kebericho’s vulnerability in Ethiopia 气候驱动的一种地方性药用植物栖息地崩溃：集合模型揭示了埃塞俄比亚kebericho的脆弱性

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127191

Tibebu Enkossa , Zerihun Tadesse , Shambel Alemu

This study evaluates present and future habitat suitability for Echinops kebericho, an endemic medicinal herb of Ethiopia’s highlands using an ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) approach, under intermediate climate change scenario (SSP2-4.5). Species occurrence data were collected from field surveys, herbarium records, and GBIF, while environmental variables (bioclimatic, elevation, solar radiation) were sourced from Worldclim, STRM, and MODI respectively. Five machine learning algorithms (GLM, MaxEnt, RF, FDA, and BRT) were initially examined. Due to its lower predictive performance (AUC: 0.81, TSS: 0.58), FDA was excluded. Model performance was assessed by partitioning data into 70 % training and 30 % testing sets using subsampling and bootstrapping to avoid overfitting, with evaluation metrics including AUC, TSS, COR, and Deviance. The final ensemble model with highest predictive accuracy (AUC: 0.94, TSS: 0.812) identified mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio_8; 60.3 % importance) and annually precipitation (bio_12; 21.0 %), revealing the species’ restricted thermal (10.4–16.4 °C) and moisture (1,618–1,997 mm). Projections show a severe contraction of habitat, with 1.9 % (∼21,824.7 km2) of Ethiopia currently suitable, dropping to 1.8 % (∼20,790.1 km2) by 2050 and further to 1.3 % (∼14,175.2 km2) by 2070, with extreme loss-to-gain ratios (46.8:1 in 2050; 72.6:1 in 2070). By 2070, there will only be ∼ 13,407 km² of stable refugia, highlighting the area’s vulnerability to moderate warming (∼2.1 °C) and changes in precipitation. Annual precipitation and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter emerged as the most influential predictors, highlighting the species’ narrow thermal tolerance and strong dependence on moisture. In addition to addressing anthropogenic pressures like agricultural expansion and unsustainable harvesting, the study underscores the need to establish and effectively manage protected areas that encompass identified stable climate refugia, ensuring the long-term conservation of E. kebericho by safeguarding critical habitats against ongoing climate and anthropogenic threats. These findings provide essential insights for planning biodiversity conservation and managing E. kebericho sustainably in the face of swiftly changing climate conditions.

在中等气候变化情景（SSP2-4.5）下，采用群落物种分布模型（SDM）方法评价了埃塞俄比亚高原特有药材Echinops kebericho现在和未来的生境适宜性。物种发生数据来源于野外调查、植物标本馆记录和GBIF，环境变量（生物气候、海拔、太阳辐射）分别来源于Worldclim、STRM和MODI。最初研究了五种机器学习算法（GLM、MaxEnt、RF、FDA和BRT）。由于其较低的预测性能（AUC: 0.81, TSS: 0.58）， FDA被排除在外。模型性能通过将数据划分为70%的训练集和30%的测试集来评估，使用子抽样和自举来避免过拟合，评估指标包括AUC， TSS， COR和Deviance。最终的集合模型具有最高的预测精度（AUC: 0.94, TSS: 0.812），确定了最湿季的平均温度（bio_8，重要性为60.3%）和年降水量（bio_12，重要性为21.0%），揭示了物种的限制热（10.4-16.4°C）和水分（1,618-1,997 mm）。预测显示，栖息地严重萎缩，埃塞俄比亚目前的适宜面积为1.9%（~ 21,824.7平方公里），到2050年降至1.8%（~ 20,790.1平方公里），到2070年进一步降至1.3%（~ 14,175.2平方公里），损益比极端（2050年为46.8:1；2070年为72.6:1）。到2070年，将只有~ 13407平方公里的稳定避难所，突出了该地区对中度变暖（~ 2.1°C）和降水变化的脆弱性。年降水量和最湿季的平均温度是影响最大的预测因子，这表明该物种的热耐受性较窄，对水分的依赖性较强。除了解决农业扩张和不可持续收获等人为压力外，该研究还强调需要建立和有效管理保护区，包括已确定的稳定气候避难所，通过保护重要栖息地免受持续的气候和人为威胁，确保kebericho的长期保护。这些发现为在快速变化的气候条件下规划生物多样性保护和可持续管理kebericho提供了重要见解。

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引用次数: 0

Most South American cloud forests are likely to disappear under high-end climate change 大多数南美云雾林可能会在高端气候变化下消失

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127192

Patrícia Vieira Pompeu , Mark Mulligan , L. Adrian Bruijnzeel , João Carlos Pires-Oliveira , Alexandra G. Ponette-González , Kate A. Brauman , Pedro V. Eisenlohr , Martina Flörke , Marco Aurélio Leite Fontes , Paulo Petry , Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha

Montane Cloud Forests (MCFs) exhibit distinct hydrological behavior compared to most other forests and are characterized by a very high diversity of restricted-range (endemic) species. They are among the most threatened ecosystems on Earth due to habitat loss and climate change, which jointly undermine their biodiversity and water-provisioning services. Effective conservation planning therefore requires detailed assessments of both their current and projected distribution of MCFs, as well as the ecosystem services they provide. Here, we evaluate the effects of two climate change scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5, on the distribution of MCFs across South America and assess potential consequences for water supply to downstream populations. Using an ensemble consensus of eight machine-learning and regression models, we estimate that by 2070 approximately 12% (RCP2.6) and 91% (RCP8.5) of climatically suitable area for MCFs could be lost. These contractions would affect about 27% and 83% of the downstream populations currently benefiting from MCF-regulated water supply, respectively. Only about one-third of MCFs, under both current and future climate conditions, fall within existing protected areas. Our results underscore the urgent need for enhanced conservation and restoration initiatives, coupled with stronger global efforts to mitigate climate change, if these unique headwater ecosystems and their critical services are to persist.

与大多数其他森林相比，山地云雾林表现出独特的水文行为，其特点是限制范围（特有）物种的多样性非常高。由于栖息地丧失和气候变化，它们是地球上受威胁最严重的生态系统之一，这些生态系统共同破坏了它们的生物多样性和供水服务。因此，有效的保护规划需要详细评估它们目前和预计的mcf分布，以及它们提供的生态系统服务。在这里，我们评估了代表性浓度路径（RCP） 2.6和8.5两种气候变化情景对南美洲mcf分布的影响，并评估了下游人口供水的潜在后果。使用八种机器学习和回归模型的集合共识，我们估计到2070年，大约12% （RCP2.6）和91% （RCP8.5）的气候适宜mcf的面积可能会损失。这些收缩将分别影响27%和83%目前受益于mcf调节供水的下游人口。在当前和未来的气候条件下，只有大约三分之一的mcf位于现有的保护区内。我们的研究结果强调，如果这些独特的水源生态系统及其关键服务要持续下去，迫切需要加强保护和恢复举措，同时加强全球减缓气候变化的努力。

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引用次数: 0

Social cost of deforestation in Brazilian biomes 巴西生物群落中森林砍伐的社会成本

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127189

Jessica Suarez Campoli , Matheus Stivali

Determining the social cost of deforestation in each Brazilian biome is essential for supporting public policies and improving decision-making processes. This study conducts a systematic literature review of the economic valuation of native vegetation across Brazil’s six biomes, grounded in the Total Economic Value (TEV) framework. In addition to compiling and harmonizing existing estimates, we produced new values for biomes with information gaps, following procedures widely adopted in the international literature. After methodological harmonization— including the exclusion of components that were not comparable across studies— we established conservative ranges for the social cost of deforestation, expressed in 2025 U.S. dollars per hectare: Amazon (USD 822.20–20,521.35/ha), Cerrado (USD 529.48–5,999.04/ha), Atlantic Forest (USD 4,380.51–8,206.54/ha), Caatinga (USD 4,049.76–4,382.46/ha), Pampa (USD 532.53–5,993.83/ha), and Pantanal (USD 1,906.50–12,745.21/ha). The consolidated results presented here constitute the most comprehensive and comparable reference available for Brazil, providing robust parameters for cost–benefit analyses and for the design of environmental policy instruments.

确定每个巴西生物群落中毁林的社会成本对于支持公共政策和改进决策过程至关重要。本研究以总经济价值（TEV）框架为基础，对巴西六个生物群落的原生植被的经济价值进行了系统的文献综述。除了汇编和协调现有的估算值外，我们还根据国际文献中广泛采用的程序，为存在信息缺口的生物群系编制了新的值。在方法论上的协调,包括组件的排斥,并不具有可比性的研究,我们建立了保守的社会成本范围的森林砍伐,表达的每公顷2025美元:亚马逊(美元822.20 -20521 .35点/公顷),塞拉多(529.48美元-5999 .04点/公顷),大西洋森林(4380 .51 - 8206 - 54美元/公顷),Caatinga(美元4049点- 4382 .46 /公顷),南美大草原(USD 532.53 -5993 .83点/公顷),和潘塔纳(- 12745 .21 1906 .50美元/公顷)。这里提出的综合结果是巴西现有的最全面和最可比的参考资料，为成本效益分析和环境政策工具的设计提供了有力的参数。

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引用次数: 0

Genetic diversity hotspots of trematodes (Platyhelminthes) in Mexico and their overlap with protected natural areas 墨西哥吸虫遗传多样性热点及其与自然保护区的重叠

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127188

Yanet Velázquez-Urrieta , Verónica Mendoza-Portillo , Francisco Javier García-De León

Genetic diversity (GD) is a fundamental component of biodiversity that remains largely overlooked in conservation planning, especially for parasitic taxa. Trematodes are among the most diverse and ecologically important parasitic groups, although their GD across regions remains poorly characterized. Here we analyze the nucleotide diversity (π) and haplotype diversity (Hd) of mitochondrial (COI) and nuclear (28S) genes using sequences available in public datasets to: (i) represent the spatial patterns genetic diversity at the family level of trematodes across Mexican biogeographic provinces and Protected Natural Areas (PNAs); (ii) identify regions with the highest GD (hotspots); and (iii) to explore how environmental factors influence genetic diversity patterns. We identified some GD patterns, as well as GD hotspots in center and southeastern Mexico, particularly in the states of Michoacán, Estado de México, Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Oaxaca. Correlation and model selection analysis revealed multiples environmental variables that can influence the GD of trematodes, as temperature seasonality (BIO4), max temperature of warmest month (BIO5), annual temperature range (BIO7), precipitation of the wettest quarter (BIO16), precipitation of warmest quarter (BIO18) and vegetation type. Furthermore, we found that 37 of 67 PNAs in the southeast overlapped with cells mapped with high-GD, suggesting that existing PNAs may preserve GD. However, public databases are still limited, highlight the need to promote more targeted studies that include parasitic taxa in conservation initiatives. This work contributes to the integration of genetic indicators into biodiversity monitoring, in line with the objectives of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

遗传多样性（GD）是生物多样性的一个基本组成部分，但在保护规划中，尤其是寄生分类群，在很大程度上仍被忽视。吸虫是最多样化和生态上重要的寄生群体之一，尽管它们在各地区的GD特征仍然很差。本文利用公共数据集的序列分析了线粒体（COI）和核（28S）基因的核苷酸多样性（π）和单倍型多样性（Hd），以：(i)代表墨西哥生物地理省和自然保护区（PNAs）吸虫在家族水平上的遗传多样性的空间格局；（ii）确定gdp最高的地区（热点）；（三）探讨环境因素对遗传多样性模式的影响。我们确定了一些GD模式，以及墨西哥中部和东南部的GD热点，特别是在Michoacán、Estado de m录影带、韦拉克鲁斯、塔巴斯科、恰帕斯和瓦哈卡州。相关分析和模型选择分析显示，影响吸虫GD的环境变量包括温度季节性（BIO4）、最暖月最高温度（BIO5）、年温差（BIO7）、最湿季降水（BIO16）、最暖季降水（BIO18）和植被类型等。此外，我们发现东南部的67个PNAs中有37个与高GD定位的细胞重叠，这表明现有的PNAs可能保留GD。然而，公共数据库仍然有限，这突出了在保护计划中促进更有针对性的研究，包括寄生分类群的需要。这项工作有助于将遗传指标纳入生物多样性监测，符合《昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样性框架》的目标。

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引用次数: 0

Climate change risks and conservation needs of Lophira lanceolata in West Africa 西非杉木的气候变化风险与保护需求

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127182

Tiétiambou Fanta Reine Sheirita , Idohou Rodrigue , Lankoandé Benjamin , Gahounga Fabrice Jean Eudes Crédo , Ouédraogo Amadé

Lophira lanceolata is a multipurpose fruit tree species widely distributed across West Africa, but its populations are declining due to climate change and anthropogenic pressures. This study assessed the current and future distribution of L. lanceolata across West Africa under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways — SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5- for 2050 and 2070. An ensemble modelling framework combining five algorithms — Generalized Linear Models (GLM), Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Random Forest (RF), MaxEnt, and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) — was employed. Habitat suitability projections and conservation priority areas were mapped and compared across models and scenarios. Results indicate that climate change will likely cause shifts and contractions in suitable habitats, with a general southward retreat under high-emission conditions. BRT predicted the largest extent of priority conservation areas (6–7 % of the study area), followed by GAM (5–5.4 %), GLM (∼4%), MaxEnt (∼3.6 %), and RF (∼3–3.3 %). Under SSP5-8.5, BRT and GLM showed reductions in distribution areas, whereas GAM, RF, and MaxEnt predicted slight increases or stability. By 2070, BRT projected a significant decline of 5.38 % in suitable areas, while GAM indicated an increase of 2.80 %. These discrepancies highlight the importance of using multiple algorithms to capture model uncertainty. The spatial variability in priority zones identifies key areas for long-term conservation. Findings support strategies such as legal protection, assisted migration, and ecological restoration to enhance the resilience of L. lanceolata. Overall, this study underscores the value of integrative modelling for evidence-based biodiversity conservation in tropical drylands.

杉木是一种广泛分布于西非的多用途果树，但由于气候变化和人为压力，其种群数量正在下降。本研究评估了2050年和2070年两个共享社会经济路径（SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5）下杉木在西非的当前和未来分布。采用集成建模框架，结合五种算法——广义线性模型（GLM）、广义可加模型（GAM）、随机森林（RF）、MaxEnt和增强回归树（BRT）。绘制了不同模式和情景下的生境适宜性预测和优先保护区域。结果表明，气候变化可能导致适宜生境的转移和收缩，在高排放条件下总体上向南退缩。BRT预测的优先保护区范围最大（占研究面积的6 - 7%），其次是GAM（5 - 5.4%）、GLM（~ 4%）、MaxEnt（~ 3.6%）和RF（~ 3 - 3.3%）。在SSP5-8.5下，BRT和GLM的分布面积减少，而GAM、RF和MaxEnt的分布面积略有增加或保持稳定。到2070年，适合区域的BRT预测显著下降5.38%，而GAM预测上升2.80%。这些差异突出了使用多种算法来捕获模型不确定性的重要性。优先区域的空间变异性确定了长期保护的关键区域。研究结果支持法律保护、辅助迁移和生态恢复等策略来增强杉木的恢复力。总体而言，本研究强调了基于证据的热带旱地生物多样性保护综合建模的价值。

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引用次数: 0

Mapping the fragility of Kashmir Valley’s ecosystems: A cutting-edge analysis using fuzzy extent and GIS techniques 绘制克什米尔山谷生态系统的脆弱性：使用模糊程度和GIS技术的前沿分析

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127187

Wani Suhail Ahmad , Saleha Jamal

This study assesses ecological vulnerability in the wetland catchments of Kashmir Valley (Wular, Anchar, and Hokersar) using fuzzy extent analysis integrated with GIS and multiple regression. Thirteen site-specific parameters were weighted and analyzed, with disturbance index (0.100), NDVI (0.096), forest fragmentation (0.095), vegetation type (0.095), and SAVI (0.094) emerging as the most significant contributors. Results reveal that 42.4 % of Wular catchment (302.64 km²) falls under high and very high vulnerability classes, while Anchar shows 76.78 km² and Hokersar exhibits 118.28 km² in these critical categories. Regression analysis (R² > 0.65) identified biological richness, forest fragmentation, disturbance index, vegetation type, and NDMI as positively correlated with vulnerability, whereas NDSI, MNDWI, slope, and temperature showed significant negative associations (p < 0.05). These findings provide spatially explicit evidence for prioritizing ecological restoration in degraded zones and inform climate-adaptive wetland management strategies for Himalayan ecosystems.

本文采用模糊度分析、GIS和多元回归相结合的方法对克什米尔河谷（Wular、Anchar和Hokersar）湿地集水区的生态脆弱性进行了评价。结果表明，干扰指数（0.100）、NDVI（0.096）、森林破碎化程度（0.095）、植被类型（0.095）和SAVI（0.094）是最显著的影响因子。结果表明，Wular流域有42.4% （302.64 km2）属于高和高脆弱性等级，而Anchar和Hokersar分别为76.78 km2和118.28 km2。回归分析（R2 > 0.65）发现，生物丰富度、森林破碎度、干扰指数、植被类型和NDMI与脆弱性呈正相关，NDSI、MNDWI、坡度和温度与脆弱性呈显著负相关（p < 0.05）。这些研究结果为在退化区优先进行生态恢复提供了明确的空间证据，并为喜马拉雅生态系统的气候适应性湿地管理策略提供了信息。

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引用次数: 0