As an IUCN Red List endangered species, Phoebe zhennan epitomizes the convergence of ecological vulnerability and cultural significance. Renowned for its “Golden-thread nanmu” timber, P. zhennan dominates China’s precious wood industry but faces critical threats from habitat fragmentation and climate-driven drought. While previous studies have primarily examined local-scale habitat characteristics, few studies have integrated paleo-historical dynamics with future projections by synthesizing changes in habitat area, geographic centroid, and niche evolution. This study used optimized MaxEnt and Biomod2 to simulate the potential distribution of P. zhennan across past, current and future climate scenarios. ENMeval-guided parameter tuning, combined with MESS/MoD analysis based on the 153 validated occurrence records of P. zhennan and the 13 selected bioclimatic and topographic variables, improved the detection of environmental shifts beyond the current reference conditions, while niche differentiation assessments provided deeper insights into local adaptation mechanisms. Results show suitable habitats concentrated in subtropical regions, with stability during the Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, warming and precipitation shifts are projected to drive northward habitat expansion, though increased precipitation variability may impose physiological constraints. Eastern and western populations exhibit distinct temperature-precipitation adaptations, highlighting the species’s vulnerability to climate variability. This study integrates multi-model optimization and niche quantification to provide data-driven frameworks for sustainable management, emphasizing assisted migration, germplasm conservation, and climate-adaptive forestry.
扫码关注我们
求助内容:
应助结果提醒方式:
