Journal for Nature Conservation最新文献_第4页

Modeling the potential distribution and shift of an Algerian endangered endemic species (Cedrus atlantica) under climate change scenarios: Implications for conservation 模拟气候变化情景下阿尔及利亚濒危特有物种（大西洋雪松）的潜在分布和转移：对保护的影响

IF 2.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2024.126744

Ahmed Laala , Amina Adimi

Algeria is distinguished by its geographical and climatic diversity, which contains a varied flora and endemic species, being recognized as one of the biodiversity hot-spots of the Mediterranean region. Among its endemic species, the renowned Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica) is particularly notable as it exclusively grows in the Atlas Mountains. Classified as endangered species by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, because of its endemism and also because dramatic declining populations over the past four decades. Forecasting the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of this species might help in devising effective conservation strategies. Under this backdrop, this study aimed to simulate the current distribution of suitable habitat for C. atlantica in Algeria and investigate the influence of climate change on its distribution range by the years 2050, 2070 and 2090. The distribution was modeled using Maximum Entropy (Maxent) based on locality information of 103 occurrence sites of the species and nine different environmental variables. The model showed that annual mean temperature and elevation were the most important environmental factors affecting the distribution of C. atlantica in Algeria. Currently, the total suitable habitats for this species, including both medium and high suitability habitats, cover a total area of 1837 km², yet its distribution is relatively narrow and fragmented. This area would obviously decrease under all future climate change scenarios, shifting northwestward and to higher elevations, where conditions conducive to the species’ expansion will exist. Our results showed that at lower elevations and latitudes the species is highly prone to the effects of climate change, and they are confronted with an augmented risk of extinction across diverse climatic scenarios. This research provides valuable information for the more effective conservation and sustainable management of C. atlantica in the face of climate change challenges.

阿尔及利亚因其地理和气候的多样性而与众不同，拥有丰富多彩的植物区系和特有物种，被公认为地中海地区生物多样性的热点地区之一。在其特有物种中，著名的阿特拉斯雪松（Cedrus atlantica）尤其引人注目，因为它只生长在阿特拉斯山脉。由于其特有性以及过去 40 年来数量的急剧下降，它被世界自然保护联盟（IUCN）红色名录列为濒危物种。预测气候变化对该物种分布的潜在影响有助于制定有效的保护策略。在此背景下，本研究旨在模拟阿尔及利亚亚特兰蒂斯蝶的当前适宜栖息地分布情况，并研究到 2050 年、2070 年和 2090 年气候变化对其分布范围的影响。根据该物种 103 个出现地点的地点信息和 9 个不同的环境变量，利用最大熵（Maxent）对其分布进行了建模。该模型显示，年平均气温和海拔高度是影响阿特兰提卡蝇在阿尔及利亚分布的最重要环境因素。目前，该物种的适宜栖息地（包括中度和高度适宜栖息地）总面积为 1837 平方公里，但其分布范围相对狭窄且支离破碎。在未来气候变化的各种情况下，这一面积将明显缩小，并向西北和海拔较高的地区转移，因为那里将存在有利于该物种扩展的条件。我们的研究结果表明，在低海拔和低纬度地区，该物种极易受到气候变化的影响，在不同的气候情景下，它们面临的灭绝风险都会增加。这项研究为面对气候变化的挑战，更有效地保护和可持续地管理大西洋鲑提供了宝贵的信息。

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引用次数: 0

Livestock guarding dogs shape activity patterns of sympatric mesocarnivores in sheep ranches of the Patagonia region 家畜看护犬影响巴塔哥尼亚地区牧场中同域中食肉动物的活动模式

IF 2.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2024.126745

Kathia Arenas-Rodriguez , Ana Paola Yusti-Muñoz , Darío Moreira-Arce , Javier A. Simonetti

Predation of livestock by wild carnivores is a source of human-wildlife conflict. Livestock Guarding Dogs (LGDs) are one of the most effective non-lethal methods used. LGDs could impact wildlife due to their possible top predator role; their effect on mesocarnivores has been studied mainly in terms of space use, however, temporal effects may also exist. Our study sought to determine the possible effects of LGD presence on the activity patterns of the native foxes Lycalopex griseus and L. culpaeus in southern Chile. Activity patterns were estimated from fox detections with camera traps set on ranches with and without LGDs in Isla Riesco, Magallanes region, Chile, between 2016 and 2018. We quantified the activity patterns of each fox species in presence/absence of LGDs, and under different conditions including breeding vs non-breeding season, moon phase and vegetation cover. Both species modified their daily activity pattern, avoiding times of day of high LGD activity; nevertheless, these modifications did not change the temporal interaction between the native foxes. Activity patterns of foxes without LGDs did not differ from those in natural areas. The effect of LGDs on fox activity patterns was stronger than other ecological variables (breeding season, moon phase or vegetation cover). Since LGDs change the activity patterns of foxes, they cannot be seen as a totally innocuous predation control tool; however, carnivores’ temporal avoidance of areas with a fear-evoking agent like LGDs would result in fewer livestock-predators encounters, thus reducing sheep predation risk. LGDs appear to exert non-lethal effects upon carnivores that would contribute to reduced predation rates and may help decrease producers’ economic losses, as well as the retaliatory hunting of wild carnivores. Thus, our results support that LGDs could be contributing to the co-existence with native predators in areas destined for livestock production.

野生食肉动物捕食牲畜是人类与野生动物冲突的根源之一。家畜看护犬（LGDs）是最有效的非致命性方法之一。由于 LGD 可能扮演顶级捕食者的角色，因此可能会对野生动物造成影响；人们主要从空间利用的角度研究了 LGD 对中型食肉动物的影响，但也可能存在时间上的影响。我们的研究试图确定 LGD 的存在对智利南部本地狐狸 Lycalopex griseus 和 L. culpaeus 活动模式的可能影响。2016年至2018年期间，我们在智利马加拉内斯大区里斯科岛（Isla Riesco）有LGD和没有LGD的牧场上设置了相机陷阱，通过相机陷阱探测到的狐狸估计了它们的活动模式。我们量化了每种狐狸在有/无 LGD 以及不同条件（包括繁殖季节与非繁殖季节、月相和植被覆盖）下的活动模式。两种狐狸都改变了它们的日常活动模式，避开了LGD活动频繁的时段；然而，这些改变并没有改变本地狐狸之间的时间互动。没有LGD的狐狸的活动模式与自然区域的狐狸活动模式并无不同。与其他生态变量（繁殖季节、月相或植被覆盖度）相比，LGD对狐狸活动模式的影响更大。由于LGD会改变狐狸的活动模式，因此不能将其视为一种完全无害的捕食控制工具；不过，食肉动物暂时避开有LGD这种诱发恐惧剂的区域会导致牲畜与捕食者相遇的次数减少，从而降低羊被捕食的风险。LGD 似乎能对食肉动物产生非致命性影响，有助于降低捕食率，并可能有助于减少生产者的经济损失以及野生食肉动物的报复性捕杀。因此，我们的研究结果表明，在畜牧业生产区，LGD可能有助于与本地食肉动物共存。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing the carbon stock in the Alps: Considerations on three different approaches 评估阿尔卑斯山的碳储量：对三种不同方法的考虑

IF 2.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2024.126746

Noemi Rota, Claudia Canedoli, Chiara Ferré, Roberto Comolli, Davide Abu El Khair, Emilio Padoa-Schioppa

Alpine protected areas provide a wide range of ecosystem services, with climate regulation being one of the most significant. In line with the European Biodiversity Strategy for 2030, which emphasizes the conservation and enhancement of ecosystem services, there is an urgent need to correctly manage these areas in order to maximize biodiversity conservation and the supply of ecosystem services. To achieve efficient management and decision-making processes, it is crucial to first assess the current supply of ecosystem services and to have a basic reference for monitoring activities. Various approaches can be used to evaluate the carbon storage, a widely used indicator of the climate regulation service. In this study three approaches were compared: fieldwork data collection, the Italian National Inventory and the TESSA toolkit. Discrepancies in the results emerged, in the Aosta Valley, TESSA reported 423 Gg for OC stock in mixed broadleaves, compared to 263 Gg from field data and 210 Gg from the National Inventory. Fieldwork data collection, while the most accurate, was the most time and resource intensive. The national inventory yielded values similar to fieldwork data; for example, in the Adamello spruce forest, the National Inventory reported 1838 Gg, while field data measured 1964 Gg. However, TESSA depicted qualitatively the same organic carbon stock distribution across the habitats compared to the other approaches. Based on the results, we propose different applications for these approaches, considering the advantages and disadvantages of each. Specifically, we suggest using the TESSA toolkit for preliminary and a qualitative screening of a study area to identify potential areas of interest for the carbon stock, while more precise but demanding approaches should be employed for local studies.

阿尔卑斯山保护区提供广泛的生态系统服务，其中气候调节是最重要的服务之一。2030 年欧洲生物多样性战略》强调保护和加强生态系统服务，因此迫切需要正确管理这些区域，以最大限度地保护生物多样性和提供生态系统服务。要实现高效的管理和决策过程，首先必须评估生态系统服务的当前供应情况，并为监测活动提供基本参考。碳储存是一种被广泛使用的气候调节服务指标，有多种方法可用于评估碳储存。本研究比较了三种方法：实地数据收集、意大利国家清单和 TESSA 工具包。结果出现了差异：在奥斯塔河谷，TESSA 报告混合阔叶树的 OC 储量为 423 千兆克，而实地数据为 263 千兆克，国家清单为 210 千兆克。实地数据收集虽然最准确，但却最耗费时间和资源。国家清单得出的数值与实地考察数据相似；例如，在阿达梅洛云杉林中，国家清单报告了 1838 千兆克，而实地数据测得的数值为 1964 千兆克。不过，与其他方法相比，TESSA 在质量上描述了各栖息地相同的有机碳储量分布。基于上述结果，我们考虑到每种方法的优缺点，建议对这些方法进行不同的应用。具体来说，我们建议使用 TESSA 工具包对研究区域进行初步和定性筛选，以确定碳储量的潜在关注区域，而对于本地研究，则应采用更精确但要求更高的方法。

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引用次数: 0

Wild ungulates employ spatio-temporal niche partitioning to coexist with livestock in resource-limited Trans-Himalayan rangelands, India 在印度资源有限的跨喜马拉雅牧场，野生有蹄类动物利用时空生态位分区与牲畜共存

IF 2.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2024.126743

Anchal Bhasin , Sunetro Ghosal , Ishwari Datt Rai , Pankaj Raina , Anamika Shrivastava , Upamanyu Hore

Understanding interactions between wild ungulates and livestock is critical for the conservation and management of rangelands. Sympatric animals use a diversity of strategies such as differential use of space or time to avoid interspecific interactions, especially competition and conflict. This study investigated the seasonal (summer and winter) spatial and temporal interaction of three wild ungulates; Tibetan argali, kiang, and blue sheep with livestock (sheep and goat) using camera trap data collected between 2020 and 2022 in different seasons (14,340 camera trap days and 234 locations). Blue sheep and livestock show the highest level of temporal overlap in summer and winter as both are diurnal irrespective of the season. The highest spatial overlap is observed between kiang and livestock in summer and winter. In the summer, kiang shows multiple activity peaks throughout the day as well as night i.e. cathemeral activity, possibly a strategy to avoid competition with livestock by using the same space actively and repetitively but for shorter periods. This allows them to access forage and water as needed. A significant avoidance of livestock by argali in terms of space use was observed. Based on our analysis, we argue that avoidance behavior by argali is a survival strategy in response to anthropogenic pressure and hunting in the past. The spatio-temporal coordination at a finer scale facilitates coexistence in our study area, which allows ungulates and livestock to exploit resources more effectively in the study area. The findings of this multi-scale spatio-temporal analysis provide insights into habitat preferences of wild ungulates and livestock and species-specific behaviour to avoid competition. These insights are critical to develop robust strategies and policies to conserve biodiversity while also supporting the livelihood of local communities in a multi-use landscape.

了解野生有蹄类动物与牲畜之间的相互作用对于牧场的保护和管理至关重要。同域动物会使用多种策略，如对空间或时间的不同利用，以避免种间相互作用，尤其是竞争和冲突。本研究利用 2020 年至 2022 年期间收集的不同季节的相机陷阱数据（14,340 个相机陷阱日和 234 个地点），研究了三种野生有蹄类动物的季节性（夏季和冬季）时空相互作用：藏原羚、羌羊和蓝羊与家畜（绵羊和山羊）。青羊和家畜在夏季和冬季的时间重合度最高，因为这两种动物在任何季节都是昼伏夜出的。羌族和家畜在夏季和冬季的空间重叠程度最高。在夏季，羌羊在白天和夜间都会出现多个活动高峰，即短暂活动，这可能是一种避免与家畜竞争的策略，它们积极、重复地使用同一空间，但使用时间较短。这使它们能够根据需要获取草料和水。在空间利用方面，我们观察到长尾羚明显避开了家畜。根据我们的分析，我们认为长臂猿的回避行为是应对过去人为压力和捕猎的一种生存策略。更精细尺度上的时空协调促进了我们研究区域的共存，使有蹄类动物和牲畜能够更有效地利用研究区域的资源。这种多尺度时空分析的结果为了解野生有蹄类动物和家畜的栖息地偏好以及避免竞争的物种特定行为提供了见解。这些洞察力对于制定强有力的战略和政策至关重要，既能保护生物多样性，又能支持多用途景观中当地社区的生计。

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引用次数: 0

Nocturnal pollinators significantly contribute to tree bean (Parkia timoriana (DC.) Merr.) reproductive success compared to diurnal pollinators 与昼间传粉昆虫相比，夜间传粉昆虫对树豆（Parkia timoriana (DC.) Merr.）的繁殖成功率有重大贡献

IF 2.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2024.126742

Akoijam Benjamin Singh , Kewat Sanjay Kumar , Suresh Kumar , Vinod Prasad Khanduri , Henchai P. Phom

The prevailing scientific research in agricultural pollination is primarily focused on diurnal pollinators. However, the active role of pollinators during the night hours, such as moths and bats, is gradually expanding. Parkia timoriana (tree bean) was selected for the present study to test the significance of nocturnal pollinators in reproductive success. Tree bean is a highly valuable tree species of ecological and socio-economic importance on agricultural farms in Southeast Asia. We examined the contributions of nocturnal and diurnal floral visitors to the reproductive success of P. timoriana via an exclusion bagging experiment in the Mizoram, north-east India. A comparison of the relative contributions of nocturnal and diurnal pollinators to the fruit production of P. timoriana was performed by quantitative parameters. We found that nocturnal pollinators outperformed diurnal pollinators in terms of all the quantity parameters and were significantly different (p < 0.05) from each other. The nocturnal pollinators have clearly facilitated fruit production in P. timoriana, which was statistically similar to the levels of pollination observed in the open pollination treatment. The results of the present study suggest that the nocturnal pollinators significantly affect the reproductive success of P. timoriana (tree bean) in an agricultural land setting.

目前农业授粉方面的科学研究主要集中在昼间传粉媒介上。然而，飞蛾和蝙蝠等夜间传粉昆虫的积极作用正在逐渐扩大。本研究选择了树豆（Parkia timoriana），以测试夜间传粉昆虫对繁殖成功的重要性。树豆是一种非常珍贵的树种，在东南亚的农业农场中具有重要的生态和社会经济价值。我们通过在印度东北部米佐拉姆地区进行的排除袋实验，研究了夜行和昼行花粉访客对 Timoriana 樹豆繁殖成功率的贡献。通过定量参数比较了夜间和昼间授粉者对 Timoriana 果实产量的相对贡献。我们发现，夜行传粉昆虫在所有数量参数上都优于昼行传粉昆虫，而且两者之间存在显著差异（p < 0.05）。夜行传粉者明显促进了 Timoriana 的果实产量，在统计学上与开放授粉处理中观察到的授粉水平相似。本研究结果表明，在农田环境中，夜行传粉昆虫对 Timoriana 树豆的繁殖成功率有显著影响。

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引用次数: 0

Woody plant communities in different land management types and implications on mountain biodiversity conservation in central Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚中部不同土地管理类型的木本植物群落及其对山区生物多样性保护的影响

IF 2.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2024.126734

Abebe Tufa Angessa

The prominence of mountains as social-ecological systems and the need for sustainable mountain development have increasingly been recognized in global agendas and international conventions. This study aims to investigate woody plant diversity, composition, and population structure in two different land management types: lands managed by the Wanchi Ecotourism Association (WETA) and non-WETA members at the slopes of Wanchi Mountain. Trees and shrubs with diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥ 5 cm were recorded from 20 m by 20 m plots and those with DBH<5 cm were counted within sub-plots of 10 m by 10 m. Tree seedlings were recorded from five 3 m by 3 m sub-sub-plots. The quasi-Poisson generalized linear model with a log-link function was used to analyze the richness of woody species and their association with environmental variables. Non-metric multidimensional scaling with Bray-Curtis distance in two-dimensional space was employed for the woody species composition. Tree species population structure was analyzed using tree diameter distribution classes. The study identified 104 woody plants belonging to 82 genera and 52 families. Woody species richness in WETA-managed lands is significantly (P=0.009) greater than that of non-WETA-managed lands. The study found that woody species richness significantly declined with increasing anthropogenic disturbance (P<0.001) and slope (P<0.001) in both WETA and non-WETA-managed land. Woody species richness also showed negative associations with aspect. The tree species in both the land management types revealed nearly similar population structures. The study highlighted the importance of sustainable land management practices such as ecotourism in areas of significant natural endowments like that of the Wanchi Mountain. Such practices can guide more sustainable mountain biodiversity conservation while realizing appropriate local livelihood improvement strategies.

全球议程和国际公约日益认识到山区作为社会生态系统的突出地位以及山区可持续发展的必要性。本研究旨在调查两种不同土地管理类型中木本植物的多样性、组成和种群结构：万奇山山坡上由万奇生态旅游协会（WETA）和非WETA成员管理的土地。胸径（DBH）≥ 5 厘米的乔木和灌木在 20 米乘 20 米的地块中记录，DBH<5 厘米的乔木和灌木在 10 米乘 10 米的子地块中计数。采用具有对数连接功能的准泊松广义线性模型分析木本物种的丰富度及其与环境变量的关系。在二维空间中采用了布雷-柯蒂斯距离的非计量多维尺度来分析木本物种组成。利用树木直径分布等级分析了树种种群结构。研究确定了 104 种木本植物，隶属于 82 属 52 科。在 WETA 管理的土地上，木本物种丰富度明显高于非 WETA 管理的土地（P=0.009）。研究发现，随着人为干扰（P<0.001）和坡度（P<0.001）的增加，WETA 和非 WETA 管理土地上的木本物种丰富度都明显下降。木质物种丰富度也与地势呈负相关。两种土地管理类型中的树种显示出几乎相似的种群结构。这项研究强调了可持续土地管理实践（如生态旅游）在万奇山等具有重要自然禀赋地区的重要性。这些做法可以指导更可持续的山区生物多样性保护，同时实现适当的当地生计改善战略。

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引用次数: 0

Identification of biodiversity hotspots for threatened mammal species under future climate 确定未来气候下受威胁哺乳动物物种的生物多样性热点地区

IF 2.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2024.126741

Nafiseh Faghih-sabzevari, Azita Farashi

Climate change has led to changes in distribution, movement, and extinction risk for various wildlife species, raising concern among conservation biologists. Therefore, this study aimed to predict suitable habitats that help wildlife managers protect wildlife more effectively. To achieve our aim, we first evaluated the vulnerability of 183 terrestrial mammal species identified in Iran under climate change based on habitat, phenology and physiology, biotic interactions, and national protection status. Then, MaxEnt was used to predict the potential changes in the distribution of vulnerable species due to climate change in the next 70 years under two scenarios: SSP126 and SSP585. In the third step, a framework was employed to identify existing and future hotspots of mammal biodiversity, and the potential changes in these areas for the species were predicted in the next 70 years. The results showed that 69 terrestrial mammals were vulnerable to climate change. Subsequently, 15 species were selected for modeling based on presence records and vulnerability to climate change. The species modeling results showed that 42 % of Iran’s habitats are currently suitable for the studied mammal species. In the future, under both climate scenarios, biodiversity hotspots for these species will be reduced, and approximately 37 % of Iran’s habitats will be suitable for the species. As a result, the current conservation network will have diminished capacity to protect the species from climate change.

气候变化导致各种野生动物的分布、移动和灭绝风险发生变化，引起了保护生物学家的关注。因此，本研究旨在预测合适的栖息地，帮助野生动物管理者更有效地保护野生动物。为了实现这一目标，我们首先根据栖息地、物候学和生理学、生物相互作用以及国家保护状况，评估了伊朗已确定的 183 种陆生哺乳动物在气候变化下的脆弱性。然后，使用 MaxEnt 预测了未来 70 年在两种情景下气候变化对脆弱物种分布的潜在影响：SSP126 和 SSP585。第三步，采用一个框架来确定哺乳动物生物多样性的现有和未来热点地区，并预测这些地区的物种在未来 70 年的潜在变化。结果显示，69 种陆生哺乳动物容易受到气候变化的影响。随后，根据存在记录和对气候变化的脆弱性，选择了 15 个物种进行建模。物种建模结果显示，伊朗目前有 42% 的栖息地适合所研究的哺乳动物物种。未来，在两种气候情景下，这些物种的生物多样性热点地区都将减少，伊朗大约 37% 的栖息地将适合这些物种。因此，目前的保护网络保护这些物种免受气候变化影响的能力将减弱。

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引用次数: 0

Combining roadkill hotspots and landscape features to guide mitigation measures on highways 结合路害热点和景观特征，指导高速公路上的缓解措施

IF 2.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2024.126738

Thais Martins , Simone Rodrigues Freitas , Artur Lupinetti-Cunha , Décio Semensatto , Elisa Hardt

Identifying highway sections with high vertebrate roadkill and associated landscape features is crucial for proposing mitigation measures to reduce the negative impacts of wildlife-vehicle collisions on biodiversity, human safety, and the economy. Focusing on highways in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, this study proposes a prioritization of road segments for implementing mitigation measures based on landscape characteristics and roadkill hotspots recorded between 2016 and 2018. Roadkills distribution was assessed using Hotspot Identification, detecting sections with the highest collision intensity. The effect of landscape variables, such as the area and distance of natural vegetation and anthropic land use within 1 km of the highways, on roadkill was modelled using General Linear Mixed Models, which were evaluated based on two response variables: (1) roadkill presence/absence and (2) roadkill abundance, with model selection by the Akaike information criterion. Based on roadkill hotspot identification analysis and predictive models of the influence of landscape elements on roadkill occurrence and abundance, an evaluation criterion was proposed to determine the priority sites for installing wildlife crossings, speed bumps, and signposts. Wildlife-vehicle collisions were positively associated with riparian vegetation areas and urban areas, while negatively associated with silviculture and distance to “cerradão” (forest Cerrado) patches. Eleven road sections were identified as top priority, two as high priority and 78 as medium priority for the installation of mitigation measures with varying cost-benefit ratios. Our results can potentially guide decision-making at broader scales and provide mitigating alternatives applicable to dry ecosystems such as the Cerrado (Brazilian Savanna).

要提出缓解措施以减少野生动物与车辆碰撞对生物多样性、人类安全和经济造成的负面影响，识别脊椎动物路害高发的高速公路路段及相关景观特征至关重要。本研究以巴西南马托格罗索州的高速公路为重点，根据 2016 年至 2018 年期间记录的景观特征和路杀热点，提出了实施减缓措施的优先路段。采用热点识别方法评估了路害分布情况，检测出碰撞强度最高的路段。景观变量，如公路 1 公里范围内自然植被和人为土地利用的面积和距离，对路杀的影响采用一般线性混合模型进行建模，该模型基于两个响应变量进行评估：（1）路杀存在/不存在；（2）路杀丰度，模型选择采用 Akaike 信息准则。根据路杀热点识别分析和景观要素对路杀发生率和丰度影响的预测模型，提出了一个评估标准，以确定安装野生动物过境点、减速带和路标的优先地点。野生动物与车辆碰撞与河岸植被区和城市地区呈正相关，而与造林和与 "cerradão"（塞拉多森林）斑块的距离呈负相关。有 11 个路段被确定为最优先路段，2 个路段被确定为高优先路段，78 个路段被确定为中优先路段，以采取不同成本效益比的缓解措施。我们的研究结果有可能为更大范围内的决策提供指导，并提供适用于塞拉多（巴西热带稀树草原）等干旱生态系统的缓解措施。

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引用次数: 0

Potential distribution of Detarium microcarpum under different climate change scenarios in Burkina Faso 在布基纳法索不同气候变化情景下的 Detarium microcarpum 潜在分布情况

IF 2.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2024.126737

Adama Taonda , Issouf Zerbo , Sié Sylvestre Da , Innocent Charles Emmanuel Traoré , Anny Estelle N’Guessan , Justin N’Dja Kassi , Adjima Thiombiano

Climate change and human activities are major drivers influencing species distribution, posing significant challenges for woody species that provide essential ecosystem goods and services. Therefore, a thorough understanding of climate impacts on species distribution is crucial for more effective management. This study aims to assess the effect of climate change on the current and future distribution of Detarium microcarpum. This study was conducted in Burkina Faso. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach was used to simulate the current and future distributions of the species. The future distribution of the species was assessed through four global climate models: HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL, ACCESS-CM2, CNRM-CM6-1 and MIROC6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 at the horizons 2061–2080 and 2081–2100. The area under the curve (AUC ˃ 0.80) and True Skill Statistic (TSS=0.7) revealed a high level of prediction for the current and future scenarios. The results showed that the mean temperature of the Wettest Quarter (bio8) and Isothermality (bio3) were the most important environmental variables which affect D. microcarpum distribution. The results show that the current suitability area for the species covers 65.6 % of the country area with respectively high suitability (36.73 %) and low suitability (29.16 %). Based on the outcomes of the prediction, the high suitable areas for D. microcarpum conservation will decrease on average by 5,92 % of their current area under future climate change, regardless of the scenario and model used, except for the MIROC6 model under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, which will increase its current area from 0.56 % to 1.7 %. The result of this study underscores the significant effect of the future climate on the suitable area of D. microcarpum. Specific actions should be taken to ensure the suitable conservation of this valuable multipurpose species.

气候变化和人类活动是影响物种分布的主要驱动因素，给提供重要生态系统产品和服务的木本物种带来了重大挑战。因此，全面了解气候对物种分布的影响对于进行更有效的管理至关重要。本研究旨在评估气候变化对 Detarium microcarpum 当前和未来分布的影响。这项研究在布基纳法索进行。采用最大熵（MaxEnt）方法模拟了该物种目前和未来的分布情况。通过四种全球气候模型对该物种的未来分布进行了评估：HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL、ACCESS-CM2、CNRM-CM6-1 和 MIROC6，在 2061-2080 年和 2081-2100 年两种共享社会经济路径（SSPs）情景下，SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5。曲线下面积（AUC ˃0.80）和真实技能统计量（TSS=0.7）显示，对当前和未来情景的预测水平较高。结果表明，最潮湿季度的平均温度（bio8）和等温线（bio3）是影响小鲫鱼分布的最重要环境变量。结果表明，目前该物种的适宜区占全国面积的 65.6%，分别为高适宜区（36.73%）和低适宜区（29.16%）。根据预测结果，在未来气候变化的情况下，无论使用哪种情景和模型，D. microcarpum 的高适宜保护区将平均减少其现有面积的 5.92%，但在 SSP5-8.5 情景下的 MIROC6 模型除外，其现有面积将从 0.56% 增加到 1.7%。这项研究的结果表明，未来气候对 D. microcarpum 的适宜面积有重大影响。应采取具体行动，确保适当保护这一珍贵的多用途物种。

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引用次数: 0

Towards optimizing conservation planning: A performance evaluation of modeling techniques for predicting Mediterranean native species distribution 优化保护规划：预测地中海本地物种分布的建模技术性能评估

IF 2.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2024.126733

Ahmed R. Mahmoud , Emad A. Farahat , Loutfy M. Hassan , Marwa Waseem A. Halmy

Understanding the intricate relationships between environmental conditions and key variables influencing species distribution is critical for ecology and conservation, especially in the face of escalating environmental challenges intensified by climate change. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools for predicting current and future habitat suitability, aiding in conservation planning. This study specifically sought to evaluate the predictive performance of different modeling techniques in determining the geographical distribution of three Mediterranean native species with different ecological flexibility in the western Mediterranean coastal land of Egypt namely Thymelaea hirsuta (L.) Endl., Ononis vaginalis Vahl, and Limoniastrum monopetalum (L.) Boiss. An ensemble model incorporating three modeling algorithms -the generalized linear model, boosted regression trees, and random forests- was juxtaposed against the Maxent non-parametric machine-learning modeling technique. The models integrated diverse variables, encompassing climatic, edaphic, habitat, and topographic factors. The results unveiled a high degree of similarity and agreement between the Maxent and ensemble models, both exhibiting outstanding fits and performance metrics. The ensemble model demonstrated remarkable accuracy across various measures evaluating model performance. However, Maxent showcased a comparatively strong performance, particularly in identifying critical areas for the distribution of the studied Mediterranean species. These findings emphasize the importance of employing a suite of modeling techniques to refine conservation planning and management strategies. At the local scale, the outcomes can guide targeted actions such as habitat restoration and species monitoring programs. Regionally, and globally it can inform policy development and cross-border conservation initiatives that address shared environmental challenges and contribute to frameworks for studies of similar ecosystems worldwide. Such a comprehensive approach ensures more effective safeguarding of Mediterranean native species under changing environmental conditions.

了解环境条件与影响物种分布的关键变量之间错综复杂的关系对于生态学和物种保护至关重要，尤其是在气候变化加剧、环境挑战不断升级的情况下。物种分布模型（SDM）是预测当前和未来栖息地适宜性的重要工具，有助于制定保护规划。本研究旨在评估不同建模技术在确定埃及西地中海沿岸三种具有不同生态灵活性的地中海本地物种（Thymelaea hirsuta (L.) Endl.、Ononis vaginalis Vahl 和 Limoniastrum monopetalum (L.) Boiss）地理分布方面的预测性能。将广义线性模型、增强回归树和随机森林三种建模算法组成的集合模型与 Maxent 非参数机器学习建模技术进行了对比。这些模型综合了各种变量，包括气候、土壤、生境和地形因素。结果表明，Maxent 模型和集合模型之间具有高度的相似性和一致性，两者都表现出出色的拟合度和性能指标。在评估模型性能的各种指标中，集合模型都表现出了卓越的准确性。不过，Maxent 的性能相对较强，尤其是在确定所研究的地中海物种分布的关键区域方面。这些发现强调了采用一整套建模技术来完善保护规划和管理策略的重要性。在当地范围内，这些结果可以指导栖息地恢复和物种监测计划等有针对性的行动。在地区和全球范围内，它可以为政策制定和跨境保护计划提供信息，从而应对共同的环境挑战，并为全球类似生态系统的研究框架做出贡献。这种综合方法可确保在不断变化的环境条件下更有效地保护地中海本地物种。

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引用次数: 0