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Skew-normal distribution model for rainfall uncertainty estimation in a distributed hydrological model 分布式水文模型中降雨不确定性估计的偏正态分布模型
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-28 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2185149
Félix Salgado-Castillo, M. Barrios, J. V. Vélez Upegui
ABSTRACT Despite the progress made by numerous contributions in recent decades on uncertainty in hydrological simulation, there are still knowledge gaps in estimating uncertainty sources, especially associated with precipitation. The aim of this study was to determine the precipitation uncertainty through an error model based on the skew normal distribution function and to evaluate the effect of its propagation towards the simulated flow with the TETIS distributed hydrological model in a poorly instrumented tropical Andean basin. The results show the performance of the hydrological model is more sensitive to the location of the meteorological station used than to the number of stations employed in a real case with scarce information. Implementing the Bayesian approach for the study of uncertainty in input data such as precipitation is essential for its quantification, improving the knowledge of how this source of error propagates to the results of the hydrological simulation.
摘要尽管近几十年来在水文模拟的不确定性方面取得了许多进展,但在估计不确定性来源,特别是与降水有关的不确定性来源方面,仍然存在知识差距。本研究的目的是通过基于偏斜正态分布函数的误差模型来确定降水量的不确定性,并评估其在仪器较差的热带安第斯盆地中向TEDIS分布式水文模型模拟流量传播的影响。结果表明,在信息匮乏的真实情况下,水文模型的性能对所使用的气象站的位置比对所使用的站的数量更敏感。将贝叶斯方法用于研究降水等输入数据的不确定性对于其量化至关重要,从而提高对该误差源如何传播到水文模拟结果的认识。
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引用次数: 0
An integrated water resource management approach for Lake Trasimeno, Italy 意大利特拉西梅诺湖水资源综合管理方法
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-27 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2185150
S. Di Francesco, Sara Venturi, S. Casadei
ABSTRACT This study aims to outline governance actions to mitigate impacts of climate change scenarios (drought) in Lake Trasimeno. A water balance model was integrated with a decision support system to evaluate water levels and water management scenarios. Water quality indices, based on Sentinel-2 images, allow the monitoring of parameters such as chlorophyll-a and turbidity. The possibility of diverting water volume from Montedoglio or Casanova reservoirs into Trasimeno Lake, according to the hypothesis of different “intervention thresholds levels” and volumes immitted, is investigated. Simulation results show that hydrometric zero represents the optimal threshold, maximizing the volume supplied and mitigating a water level decrease. An inverse correlation was observed between the lake water levels, turbidity, and chlorophyll-a concentration indices. Even if further studies to test the effects of mixing water with different physical and chemical characteristics are necessary, the proposed mitigation strategy could avoid the rapid growth of the above-mentioned quality parameters.
摘要本研究旨在概述缓解特拉西梅诺湖气候变化情景(干旱)影响的治理行动。将水平衡模型与决策支持系统相结合,以评估水位和水管理情景。基于Sentinel-2图像的水质指数可以监测叶绿素a和浊度等参数。根据不同“干预阈值水平”和不同水量的假设,研究了将Montedoglio或Casanova水库的水量引入Trasimeno湖的可能性。模拟结果表明,水文零点代表了最佳阈值,最大化了供水量,缓解了水位下降。观察到湖泊水位、浊度和叶绿素a浓度指数之间呈负相关。即使有必要进一步研究以测试混合具有不同物理和化学特性的水的效果,所提出的缓解策略也可以避免上述质量参数的快速增长。
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引用次数: 0
Using climate information as covariates to improve nonstationary flood frequency analysis in Brazil 利用气候信息作为协变量改进巴西非平稳洪水频率分析
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-20 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2182212
Gabriel Anzolin, P. Chaffe, J. Vrugt, A. Aghakouchak
ABSTRACT Climatic drivers of floods have been widely used to improve nonstationary flood frequency analysis (FFA). However, the forecast ability of nonstationary FFA with out-of-sample prediction has not been comprehensively evaluated. We use 379 flood records from Brazil to assess the ability of process-informed nonstationary models for out-of-sample FFA using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Five drivers of floods are used as covariates: annual temperature, El Nino Southern Oscillation, annual rainfall, annual maximum rainfall, and annual maximum soil moisture content. Our results reveal that a nonstationary model is preferable when there is a significant correlation between flood and climate covariates in both the training period and full record. The rainfall-based covariates lead to better out-of-sample nonstationary FFA models. These findings highlight that using climate information as covariates in nonstationary FFA is a promising approach for estimating future floods and, hence, better infrastructure design, risk assessment and disaster preparedness.
洪水的气候驱动因素已被广泛用于改进非平稳洪水频率分析(FFA)。然而,样本外预测的非平稳FFA的预测能力尚未得到全面评价。我们使用巴西的379条洪水记录,使用广义极值(GEV)分布来评估样本外FFA的过程知情非平稳模型的能力。洪水的五个驱动因素被用作协变量:年温度、厄尔尼诺南方涛动、年降雨量、年最大降雨量和年最大土壤含水量。我们的结果表明,当训练期和完整记录中洪水和气候协变量之间存在显著相关性时,非平稳模型是优选的。基于降雨量的协变量导致了更好的样本外非平稳FFA模型。这些发现强调,在非平稳FFA中使用气候信息作为协变量是一种很有前途的方法,可以估计未来的洪水,从而更好地进行基础设施设计、风险评估和备灾。
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引用次数: 1
Establishment of rainfall partitioning parameters for tea plantations 茶园降雨分配参数的建立
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-20 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2182211
Chitra Shukla, Kartikeya Tiwari, S. K. Mishra
ABSTRACT Tea is a popular crop in Asia and Africa, yet only limited information on tea watershed hydrology is available. This study attempts to experimentally establish the rainfall partitioning parameters (RPPs), namely throughfall (TF), stemflow (SF), and rainfall interception (IC), for a plantation of 27-year-old tea plants grown in West Bengal, India. The relative proportions of TF, SF and IC were 59–89%, 0.12%, and 10–40% with coefficients of variation of 10%, 29%, and 27%, respectively. The SF proportion, being insignificant (≤2%), can be omitted. RPP responses were also analysed against rainfall depth, intensity, and duration. All RPPs except SF showed an exponential decay with rainfall depth. The fitted/validated models were evaluated for goodness of fit using coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, root mean square error, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency as error metrics. These results have pragmatic significance in tea watershed hydrology.
摘要茶叶在亚洲和非洲是一种受欢迎的作物,但关于茶叶流域水文的信息有限。本研究试图通过实验建立印度西孟加拉邦种植的27年茶树的降雨分配参数(RPP),即通流(TF)、茎流(SF)和截雨(IC)。TF、SF和IC的相对比例分别为59–89%、0.12%和10–40%,变异系数分别为10%、29%和27%。SF比例不重要(≤2%),可以省略。还分析了RPP对降雨深度、强度和持续时间的响应。除SF外,所有RPP均随降雨深度呈指数衰减。使用确定系数、平均绝对误差、均方根误差和Nash-Sutcliffe效率作为误差度量来评估拟合/验证的模型的拟合优度。这些结果对茶叶流域水文具有实际意义。
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引用次数: 0
A fusion-based data assimilation framework for runoff prediction considering multiple sources of precipitation 基于融合的径流预测数据同化框架
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-20 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2180375
Maziyar Bahrami, N. Talebbeydokhti, G. Rakhshandehroo, M. Nikoo, J. Adamowski
ABSTRACT A fusion-based framework, in which a particle filter Markov chain Monte Carlo (PFMCMC) data assimilation method was coupled with the hydrological Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA), was developed to improve the model’s capacity to predict one-day-ahead runoff. A case study was applied where mean daily precipitation from multiple sources served as forcing data in the data assimilation procedure, while ground station and multiple bias-corrected satellite-based precipitation datasets served as precipitation input datasets. The model training period used six years (2002–2007) of data to determine optimal weights through a genetic algorithm optimization model, while two years (2008–2009) were used to test the model. The proposed framework, applied to a real case study, improved SAC-SMA runoff prediction accuracy by incorporating precipitation datasets from multiple sources in the data assimilation procedure. On average, the PFMCMC-based data assimilation procedure led to a 13.7% improvement in SAC-SMA model performance metrics (NSE, MAB, RMSE, RMSRE, RMRE).
摘要将粒子滤波马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(PFMCMC)数据同化方法与水文萨克拉门托土壤水分核算模型(SAC-SMA)相结合,开发了一个基于融合的框架,以提高该模型预测提前一天径流的能力。应用了一个案例研究,其中来自多个来源的平均日降水量作为数据同化程序中的强迫数据,而地面站和基于多个偏差校正的卫星降水数据集作为降水输入数据集。模型训练期使用六年(2002–2007)的数据通过遗传算法优化模型确定最优权重,而使用两年(2008–2009)来测试模型。所提出的框架应用于实际案例研究,通过在数据同化过程中结合来自多个来源的降水数据集,提高了SAC-SMA径流预测的准确性。平均而言,基于PFMCMC的数据同化程序使SAC-SMA模型性能指标(NSE、MAB、RMSE、RMSRE、RMRE)提高了13.7%。
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引用次数: 1
Future hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile River basin and its impact on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam water resource system: a review 青尼罗河上游流域未来水文及其对埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝水资源系统的影响:综述
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-17 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2179878
Kasye Shitu Mulat, Adibar Hymiro Tegegne
ABSTRACT This review paper focuses on the question of what will happen to the future water resource system of Grand Renaissance Dam of Ethiopia based on the projected hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile River basin. For this, the hydrological extremes, the baseline hydrological trends, and projected hydrological extremes of the Upper Blue Nile River basin were reviewed from various published and unpublished sources. Changes in the future hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile River basin due to climate change or any other natural or manmade modification of the river basin deserve concerted attention in the future water resources system of the Grand Renaissance Dam of Ethiopia, because the water resources of the dam mainly depend on the water potential nature of the Upper Blue Nile River basin.
摘要本文根据青尼罗上游流域的水文预测,对埃塞俄比亚大复兴大坝未来的水资源系统进行了研究。为此,从各种已发表和未发表的来源回顾了蓝尼罗河上游流域的水文极值、基线水文趋势和预估水文极值。埃塞俄比亚大复兴大坝未来水资源系统中,由于气候变化或其他自然或人为对流域的改造而导致的上青尼罗河流域未来水文的变化值得共同关注,因为大坝的水资源主要依赖于上青尼罗河流域的水势性质。
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引用次数: 0
Rainfall regimes in Sri Lanka 斯里兰卡的降雨情况
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-10 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2179403
B. Basnayake
ABSTRACT Understanding spatio-temporal variation in rainfall is important to water resources planning and management activities. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and harmonic analysis are considered state-of-the-art techniques for analysing rainfall variability. This study considered monthly rainfall data from 18 principal stations and 21 secondary stations in Sri Lanka. K-means clustering was applied for identifying rainfall regimes. Rotated EOF analysis provided four key factors related to climate seasons of which the first two factors were more prominent, explaining more than 80% of the total variance. Harmonic analysis showed that northeastern and southwestern parts of the country possess strong annual and semi-annual variation, respectively explaining 90% of the total variance. Both EOF and harmonic analysis can be considered effective tools for identifying rainfall characteristics. However, harmonic analysis results successfully identified seven well-defined rainfall regime characteristics, which could be explained using tendency in data, amplitude, phase angle, and seasonal contribution.
摘要了解降雨的时空变化对水资源规划和管理活动具有重要意义。经验正交函数(EOF)分析和调和分析被认为是分析降雨变异性的最先进技术。本研究考虑了斯里兰卡18个主站和21个副站的月降雨量数据。采用K-means聚类方法识别降雨过程。旋转EOF分析提供了与气候季节相关的四个关键因素,其中前两个因素更为突出,解释了80%以上的总方差。调和分析表明,东北部和西南部地区具有较强的年变化和半年变化,分别解释了90%的总变化。EOF和谐波分析都可以被认为是识别降雨特征的有效工具。然而,谐波分析结果成功地确定了七个明确的雨势特征,这些特征可以用数据趋势、振幅、相位角和季节贡献来解释。
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引用次数: 0
Changes in rain-on-snow events in mountain catchments in the rain–snow transition zone 雨-雪过渡带山地集水区雨-雪事件的变化
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-09 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2177544
Ondrej Hotovy, Ondrej Nedelcev, Michal Jeníček
ABSTRACT A shift from snowfall to rain affecting snow storage is expected in future. Consequently, changes in rain-on-snow (ROS) events may occur. We evaluated the frequency and trends in ROS events and their runoff responses at different elevations related to changes in climate variables. We selected 40 central European mountain catchments located in the rain–snow transition zone, and used a conceptual catchment model to simulate runoff components for the period 1965–2019. The results showed large temporal and spatial differences in ROS events and their respective runoff responses across individual study catchments and elevations, with primarily an ROS increase at highest elevations and a decrease at lower elevations during spring. ROS events contributed 3–32% to the total seasonal direct runoff. The detected trends reflect changes in climate and snow variables, with an increase in air temperature resulting in the decrease in snowfall fraction and shorter snow cover period.
摘要:预计未来将出现从降雪到降雨的转变,影响雪的储存。因此,雨对雪(ROS)事件可能会发生变化。我们评估了ROS事件的频率和趋势,以及与气候变量变化相关的不同海拔高度的径流响应。我们选择了位于雨雪过渡带的40个中欧山区集水区,并使用概念集水区模型模拟了1965年至2019年期间的径流成分。结果显示,各个研究集水区和海拔高度的ROS事件及其各自的径流响应在时间和空间上存在很大差异,春季期间,ROS主要在最高海拔处增加,在较低海拔处减少。ROS事件对季节性直接径流总量的贡献率为3-32%。检测到的趋势反映了气候和降雪变量的变化,气温的升高导致降雪量减少,积雪期缩短。
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引用次数: 1
Modelling flood awareness in floodplain dynamics 漫滩动力学中洪水意识的建模
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-09 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2177543
M. Mazzoleni, L. Brandimarte
ABSTRACT Societal awareness is a crucial factor driving floodplain dynamics. When modelling these dynamics, flood awareness decay is considered constant. However, empirical studies have shown that the intensity of an experienced event can influence awareness decay. Here we explore and model the influence of variable flood awareness decay on flood losses for two types of societies that cope with flooding by adopting structural (techno society) or nonstructural (green society) protection measures. We modified an established socio-hydrological model and performed three synthetic experiments with multiple scenarios of flood awareness decay, flood intensity, and frequency. We found that, when modelling techno societies, assuming a constant awareness decay leads to underestimating societal flood awareness after severe flood events. In contrast, overestimation of flood awareness occurs when using constant awareness decay for green societies. This might lead to overestimating the effects of human–flood dynamics, such as the levee effect and adaptation effects.
摘要社会意识是驱动洪泛平原动态的关键因素。在对这些动态进行建模时,洪水意识衰减被认为是恒定的。然而,实证研究表明,经历的事件的强度会影响意识衰退。在这里,我们探索并模拟了通过采取结构性(技术社会)或非结构性(绿色社会)保护措施来应对洪水的两种社会的可变洪水意识衰退对洪水损失的影响。我们修改了一个已建立的社会水文模型,并对洪水意识衰退、洪水强度和频率的多个场景进行了三次综合实验。我们发现,在对技术社会进行建模时,假设意识持续衰退会导致低估严重洪水事件后的社会洪水意识。相比之下,当使用绿色社会的持续意识衰退时,就会高估洪水意识。这可能会导致高估人类-洪水动力学的影响,如堤坝效应和适应效应。
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引用次数: 2
Where should hydrology go? An early-career perspective on the next IAHS Scientific Decade: 2023–2032 水文学何去何从?下一个IAHS科学十年(2023-2032)的早期职业展望
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-09 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2170754
Theresa C. van Hateren, Harro J. Jongen, Hadeel Al-Zawaidah, J. Beemster, Judith Boekee, L. Bogerd, Sijia Gao, Christin Kannen, Ilja van Meerveld, S. D. de Lange, Felicia Linke, R. B. Pinto, Janneke O. E. Remmers, J. Ruijsch, S. R. Rusli, Roeland C. van de Vijsel, Jerom P. M. Aerts, Sehouevi Mawuton David Agoungbome, Markus Anys, Sara Blanco Ramírez, T. V. van Emmerik, L. Gallitelli, Gabriela chiquito Gesualdo, Wendy Gonzalez Otero, Sarah Hanus, Zixiao He, Svenja Hoffmeister, R. Imhoff, Tim Kerlin, Sumit M. Meshram, Judith Meyer, Aline Meyer Oliveira, Andreas C.T. Müller, R. Nijzink, Mirjam Scheller, L. Schreyers, D. Sehgal, P. Tasseron, A. Teuling, M. Trevisson, Kryss Waldschläger, Bas Walraven, C. Wannasin, J. Wienhöfer, Marianne Zander, Shulin Zhang, Jingwei Zhou, Judith Y. Zomer, B. Zwartendijk
ABSTRACT This paper shares an early-career perspective on potential themes for the upcoming International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Scientific Decade (SD). This opinion paper synthesizes six discussion sessions in western Europe identifying three themes that all offer a different perspective on the hydrological threats the world faces and could serve to direct the broader hydrological community: “Tipping points and thresholds in hydrology,” “Intensification of the water cycle,” and “Water services under pressure.” Additionally, four trends were distinguished concerning the way in which hydrological research is conducted: big data, bridging science and practice, open science, and inter- and multidisciplinarity. These themes and trends will provide valuable input for future discussions on the theme for the next IAHS SD. We encourage other early-career scientists to voice their opinion by organizing their own discussion sessions and commenting on this paper to make this initiative grow from a regional initiative to a global movement.
本文分享了即将到来的国际水文科学协会(IAHS)科学十年(SD)的潜在主题的早期职业观点。本意见文件综合了在西欧举行的六场讨论会,确定了三个主题,这些主题都为世界面临的水文威胁提供了不同的视角,并可以指导更广泛的水文界:“水文学的临界点和阈值”、“水循环的加剧”和“压力下的供水服务”。此外,在水文研究的开展方式方面,还区分了四种趋势:大数据、连接科学与实践、开放科学以及跨学科和多学科。这些主题和趋势将为今后讨论下一届国际ahs可持续发展会议的主题提供宝贵的投入。我们鼓励其他早期职业科学家通过组织他们自己的讨论会议和评论这篇论文来表达他们的意见,使这一倡议从一个区域倡议发展成为一个全球运动。
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引用次数: 2
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Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques
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