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Estimation of sediment discharge using a tree-based model 基于树模型的输沙量估算
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2221790
E. Jang, U. Ji, W. Yeo
ABSTRACT The model tree (MT) approach, a data mining technique used to analyse relationships between input and output variables in a disordered and large database, was adopted in this study to predict sediment discharge with field measurement data. The derived models were analysed for accuracy according to the goodness of fit based on training, testing, and modelling processes. When the flow velocity, depth, water surface slope, channel width, and median bed material were selected as the river’s system variables, the model results of sediment discharge resembled the measured values. The results demonstrate that developing and using the sediment discharge estimation with the MT constitutes the most effective method if long-term sediment data are of sufficient validity.
摘要本研究采用模型树(MT)方法,一种用于分析无序大型数据库中输入和输出变量之间关系的数据挖掘技术,利用现场测量数据预测输沙量。根据训练、测试和建模过程的拟合优度,对导出的模型进行精度分析。当选择流速、深度、水面坡度、河道宽度和中值河床材料作为河流系统变量时,泥沙流量的模型结果与实测值相似。结果表明,如果长期泥沙数据具有足够的有效性,那么开发和使用MT估算泥沙流量是最有效的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Defining intensity–duration–frequency curves at short durations: a methodological framework 在短时间内定义强度-持续时间-频率曲线:一个方法学框架
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-07-05 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2224002
I. Gnecco, A. Palla, P. La Barbera, G. Roth, F. Giannoni
ABSTRACT In the field of sub-hourly durations, and especially in urban hydrology, selecting the most appropriate form of the intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curve becomes a relevant question. In this study, two different formulations of IDF curves – that are characterized by a curvature in the sub-hourly intervals and a power-law formulation for the super-hourly intervals – are proposed in order to maximize the overall information contribution in the sub-hourly and the super-hourly domains. The proposed formulations are compared with two well-known IDF formulations, respectively characterized by a power-law and a curvature (from the power-law) formulation, calibrated only using data referring to super-hourly durations. Findings indicated that the proposed IDF curves allow to account for the different lengths of the sub-hourly and canonical data series and eventually for the different behaviour/trend of sub-hourly and super-hourly data, thus providing the best reliability indicator, at least in the investigated return period.
在次小时历时领域,特别是在城市水文中,选择最合适的强度-历时-频率(IDF)曲线形式成为一个相关问题。在本研究中,提出了两种不同的IDF曲线公式,即以亚小时间隔的曲率和超小时间隔的幂律公式为特征,以最大限度地提高亚小时和超小时域的总体信息贡献。建议的公式与两个著名的IDF公式进行了比较,分别以幂律和曲率(来自幂律)公式为特征,仅使用参考超小时持续时间的数据进行校准。研究结果表明,所提出的IDF曲线考虑到了亚小时和标准数据序列的不同长度,并最终考虑到了亚小时和超小时数据的不同行为/趋势,从而提供了最佳的可靠性指标,至少在调查的回归期内是这样。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing influential rainfall–runoff variables to simulate daily streamflow using random forest 使用随机森林评估有影响的降雨-径流变量以模拟日流量
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2232356
F. Vilaseca, A. Castro, C. Chreties, A. Gorgoglione
ABSTRACT This work aims to improve the feature selection for data-driven rainfall–runoff models by assessing the significance of each input variable in the learning process and analysing it from a physical point of view. For this purpose, a set of 14 experiments was carried out in two watersheds of the Santa Lucía Chico basin, Uruguay. A random forest model was trained and tested for daily discharge prediction in each of them using different input variables. A feature importance analysis was carried out for each model, using a non-model-biased method (Shapely additive explanations). Results showed that the most relevant variables were lagged discharges of one and two days, along with seven-day accumulated rainfall, which is interpreted as a proxy of the soil moisture condition of the watershed. The temperature was also relevant and was proven to represent the effect of the whole set of climatic variables (relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed).
本研究旨在通过评估学习过程中每个输入变量的重要性,并从物理角度对其进行分析,从而改进数据驱动的降雨径流模型的特征选择。为此目的,在乌拉圭Santa Lucía Chico盆地的两个流域进行了一组14项实验。使用不同的输入变量,训练随机森林模型并对其进行日排放量预测。对每个模型进行特征重要性分析,使用无模型偏差的方法(shape加性解释)。结果表明,最相关的变量是1天和2天的滞后流量,以及7天的累积降雨量,这可以被解释为流域土壤湿度状况的代表。温度也是相关的,并被证明代表了一整套气候变量(相对湿度、太阳辐射、风速)的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Quantitative analysis of input data uncertainty for SPI and SPEI in Peninsular Malaysia based on the bootstrap method 基于自举法的马来西亚半岛SPI和SPEI输入数据不确定性定量分析
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2232348
Y. Tan, J. L. Ng, Yuk Feng Huang
ABSTRACT Drought assessment has attracted attention in the research community, especially regarding the accuracy of drought indices due to input data uncertainty. This study addressed the impacts of input data uncertainty on the estimation of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for drought assessment in Peninsular Malaysia. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test recommended the gamma distribution function for the SPI and the log-logistic distribution function for the SPEI. The bootstrap method was used to estimate SPIU and SPEIU, which account for input data uncertainty, and provided estimates for SPI and SPEI values. However, the standard deviation indicated significant input data uncertainty, with values ranging from 0.1038 to 0.1378. The two drought indices exhibited similar classifications of drought categories, but SPIU showed greater uncertainty for very dry and extremely dry events. The findings emphasize the importance of input data uncertainty, especially when dealing with extreme drought events.
摘要干旱评估引起了研究界的关注,尤其是由于输入数据的不确定性,干旱指数的准确性。本研究探讨了输入数据的不确定性对马来西亚半岛干旱评估标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化降水蒸发蒸腾指数(SPEI)估计的影响。Kolmogorov-Smirnov试验建议SPI采用伽马分布函数,SPEI采用对数逻辑分布函数。bootstrap方法用于估计SPIU和SPEIU,这说明了输入数据的不确定性,并提供了SPI和SPEI值的估计。然而,标准偏差表明输入数据具有显著的不确定性,数值范围为0.1038至0.1378。这两个干旱指数在干旱类别上表现出相似的分类,但SPIU在非常干旱和极端干旱事件中表现出更大的不确定性。研究结果强调了输入数据不确定性的重要性,尤其是在处理极端干旱事件时。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring parameter (dis)agreement due to calibration metric selection in conceptual rainfall–runoff models 由于概念降雨-径流模型中的校准度量选择,探索参数(dis)一致性
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-06-29 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2231434
Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, P. Mendoza, N. Vásquez, X. Vargas
ABSTRACT We examine the extent to which the parameters of different types of catchments are sensitive to calibration criteria selection (i.e. parameter agreement), and explore possible connections with overall model performance and model complexity. To this end, we calibrate the lumped GR4J, GR5J and GR6J hydrological models – coupled with the CemaNeige snow module – in 95 catchments spanning a myriad of hydroclimatic and physiographic characteristics across Chile, using 12 streamflow-oriented objective functions. The results show that (i) the choice of objective function has smaller effects on parameter values in catchments with low aridity index and high mean annual runoff ratio, in contrast to drier climates; and (ii) catchments with better parameter agreement also provide better performance across model structures and simulation periods. More generally, this work provides insights on the type of catchments where it is more challenging to find sub-domains in the parameter space that satisfy multiple streamflow criteria.
摘要我们研究了不同类型集水区的参数对校准标准选择(即参数一致性)的敏感程度,并探讨了与整体模型性能和模型复杂性的可能联系。为此,我们使用12个面向流量的目标函数,校准了智利95个集水区的集总GR4J、GR5J和GR6J水文模型,以及CemaNeige雪模块,这些集水区涵盖了智利无数的水文气候和地貌特征。结果表明:(1)在干旱指数低、年平均径流量比高的集水区,与干旱气候相比,目标函数的选择对参数值的影响较小;以及(ii)具有更好参数一致性的集水区在模型结构和模拟周期内也提供了更好的性能。更普遍地说,这项工作提供了关于集水区类型的见解,在集水区类型中,在参数空间中找到满足多个流量标准的子域更具挑战性。
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引用次数: 3
How to assess climate change impact models: uncertainty analysis of streamflow statistics via approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) 如何评估气候变化影响模式:基于近似贝叶斯计算(ABC)的流量统计不确定性分析
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-06-29 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2231437
J. Romero-Cuellar, F. Francés
ABSTRACT Climate change impact models (CCIMs) suffer from inherent bias, uncertainty, and asynchronous observations in the baseline period. To overcome these challenges, this study introduces a methodology to assess CCIMs in the baseline period using the uncertainty analysis of streamflow statistics via the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) post-processor, which infers the residual error model parameters based on summary statistics (signatures). As an illustrative case study, we analyzed the climate change projections of the fifth assessment report of the United Nations intergovernmental panel on climate change (AR5 - IPCC) of the monthly streamflow in the upper Oria catchment (Spain) with deterministic and probabilistic verification frameworks to assess the ABC post-processor outputs. In addition, the ABC post-processor is evaluated against the ensemble (reference method). The results show that the ABC post-processor outperformed the ensemble method in all verification metrics, and the ensemble method has reasonable reliability but exhibited poor sharpness. We suggest that the ensemble method should be complemented with the ABC post-processor for climate change impact studies.
气候变化影响模式(CCIMs)在基线期存在固有的偏差、不确定性和非同步观测。为了克服这些挑战,本研究引入了一种基于汇总统计(签名)推断残差模型参数的方法,通过近似贝叶斯计算(ABC)后处理器对流量统计数据进行不确定性分析,来评估基线期的CCIMs。以联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告(AR5 - IPCC)为例,利用确定性和概率验证框架对西班牙奥里亚上游流域月流量的气候变化预测进行了分析,以评估ABC后处理器输出。此外,ABC后处理器根据集成(参考方法)进行评估。结果表明,ABC后处理器在所有验证指标上都优于集成方法,集成方法具有合理的可靠性,但清晰度较差。我们建议,在气候变化影响研究中,集合方法应与ABC后处理器相辅相成。
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引用次数: 0
Insights into the influence of morphology on the hydrological processes of river catchments using stable isotopes 利用稳定同位素研究形态对河流流域水文过程的影响
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-06-28 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2224005
I. Matiatos, A. Papadopoulos, Y. Panagopoulos, E. Dimitriou
ABSTRACT Water isotopes (δ18O, δ2H) were systematically monitored in two river catchments to investigate the isotopic spatiotemporal variation and the differences between them. The Pinios River Basin (PRB) exhibited lower average δ 18O and δ 2H values (−7.9‰ and −50.8‰, respectively) compared to the Evrotas River Basin (ERB) (−6.5‰ and −38.2‰, respectively) but higher in range (3.3‰ vs 1.2‰ for δ18O, respectively). The Bayesian modelling results showed higher groundwater contribution in the PRB (25–50%) than in the ERB (15–35%) relative to precipitation during the wet period. The isotopic spatial variability was attributed to the influence of local precipitation, evaporation and additional flow pathways (e.g. soil water). The correlation analysis showed that the isotopic composition is controlled by the catchment altitude, slope and discharge. This study highlights the catchment physiographic control on the isotopic composition of rivers, which can support strategies for better water resources management.
摘要系统监测了两个流域的水同位素(δ18O、δ2H),探讨了它们的时空变化及其差异。Pinios河(PRB) δ18O和δ 2H的平均值分别为- 7.9‰和- 50.8‰,低于Evrotas河(ERB)(分别为- 6.5‰和- 38.2‰),但δ18O的平均值高于Evrotas河(ERB)(分别为3.3‰和1.2‰)。贝叶斯模拟结果表明,相对于湿期降水,PRB的地下水贡献(25-50%)高于ERB(15-35%)。同位素空间变异归因于当地降水、蒸发和其他流动途径(如土壤水)的影响。相关分析表明,同位素组成受流域海拔、坡度和流量的控制。本研究强调了流域地理对河流同位素组成的控制,这可以为更好的水资源管理策略提供支持。
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引用次数: 0
Determining flood source areas in watersheds using data-driven models and a geographic information system 利用数据驱动模型和地理信息系统确定流域的洪水源区
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-06-28 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2220885
Behzad Zohourian, Seyed Mahmood Hosseini
ABSTRACT This study explores the use of gene expression programming (GEP) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) to estimate flood index values based on the unit flood response (UFR) method in two adjacent watersheds (Ardak and Kardeh) located in northeast Iran. The performances of the studied data-driven models were compared according to certain statistical measures such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The findings indicate that GEP models were more accurate than ANNs (RMSE = 0.0986 vs. 0.1512 for Ardak and RMSE = 0.1024 vs. 0.1112 for Kardeh, respectively). Another advantage of the GEP models was providing an explicit relationship between flood index values and physical attributes. As flood index values derived via the UFR method were close to each other, flood contribution area maps were developed using a geographic information system (GIS) to consider uncertainty. Then, fusion algorithms including ordinary averaging, linear regression, and GEP were applied to develop a flexible regional model.
摘要:本研究探讨了利用基因表达编程(GEP)和人工神经网络(ann)基于单位洪水响应(UFR)方法估算伊朗东北部两个相邻流域(Ardak和Kardeh)的洪水指数值。根据一定的统计指标,如均方根误差(RMSE),比较了所研究的数据驱动模型的性能。结果表明,GEP模型比人工神经网络更准确(Ardak的RMSE = 0.0986 vs. 0.1512, Kardeh的RMSE = 0.1024 vs. 0.1112)。GEP模型的另一个优点是提供了洪水指数值与物理属性之间的明确关系。由于通过UFR方法得到的洪水指数彼此接近,因此使用地理信息系统(GIS)开发洪水贡献区图,以考虑不确定性。然后,应用普通平均、线性回归和GEP等融合算法建立柔性区域模型。
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引用次数: 0
Hydro-morphodynamic responses of rivers to the construction of hydropower dams: a case study – the Kor River, Iran 河流对水电站大坝建设的水力形态动力学响应:以伊朗科尔河为例
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-06-27 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2230197
H. Hamidifar, M. Nones
ABSTRACT The impact of dams on fluvial hydro-morphology in arid and semi-arid regions, such as the Middle East, has received little attention, although such fluvial corridors represent major sources of livelihood for the local population. In this study, the influence of the Mollasadra Dam on the hydro-morphological conditions of the Iranian Kor River is numerically investigated using iRIC MFlow_02, by considering different flooding conditions. Simulating different scenarios with and without the dam, and looking at key parameters like flow rate and velocity, sediment transport rate, and bed topography, it is evident that the dam significantly reduces the water discharge and the relative flow velocities, while it has a relatively low impact on the bed morphology and sediment transport. This can be ascribed to the fact that the Kor River is a capacity-limited watercourse, characterized by rather coarse material and reduced sediment transport.
在干旱和半干旱地区,水坝对河流形态的影响,如中东,很少受到关注,尽管这些河流走廊是当地人口的主要生计来源。本文采用iRIC MFlow_02软件,在考虑不同洪水条件的情况下,对伊朗Kor河Mollasadra大坝对水文形态条件的影响进行了数值模拟研究。通过对有坝和无坝两种不同情景的模拟,以及对流量、流速、输沙率、河床地形等关键参数的分析,可以看出,大坝显著降低了流域的径流量和相对流速,而对河床形态和输沙的影响相对较小。这可能是由于科尔河是一个容量有限的水道,其特点是相当粗糙的物质和减少的泥沙运输。
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引用次数: 0
Cessation time approach incorporating parametric and non-parametric machine-learning algorithms for recovery test data 停止时间方法结合参数和非参数机器学习算法恢复测试数据
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-06-27 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2230202
A. Sahin, Emin Çiftçi
ABSTRACT In this study we propose a new method called the cessation time approach (CTA) for interpreting recovery tests in confined aquifers, which is based on the Theis solution. The CTA method involves selecting a residual drawdown measurement from the recovery phase and linking it to its dimensionless counterpart through simple algebraic steps. This approach is then incorporated with a regression model to estimate aquifer parameters. The performance of several parametric polynomial and non-parametric machine learning regression models was investigated using various datasets. Results show that CTA with third-order multivariable polynomials produced highly accurate parameter estimates with a normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) within 0.5% for a field dataset. Among the machine learning algorithms tested, the radial basis function and Gaussian process regression achieved the highest accuracy with NRMSEs of 0.6%. We conclude that CTA can be a viable interpretation tool for recovery tests due to its accuracy and simplicity.
在本研究中,我们提出了一种新的方法,称为停止时间法(CTA),用于解释承压含水层的采收率测试,该方法基于Theis解。CTA方法包括从恢复阶段选择一个残差缩减测量,并通过简单的代数步骤将其与无量纲对应的测量相连接。然后将该方法与回归模型相结合来估计含水层参数。利用不同的数据集研究了几种参数多项式和非参数机器学习回归模型的性能。结果表明,使用三阶多变量多项式的CTA对现场数据集进行了高精度的参数估计,标准化均方根误差(NRMSE)在0.5%以内。在测试的机器学习算法中,径向基函数和高斯过程回归的准确率最高,nrmse为0.6%。综上所述,由于CTA的准确性和简单性,它可以作为一种可行的恢复测试解释工具。
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引用次数: 0
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Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques
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