Pub Date : 2023-05-25DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2217333
Thais Palumbo Silva, D. Bressiani, É. Ebling, J. C. de Deus Junior, J. M. Reichert
ABSTRACT Land use is a driver for hydrological and soil erosion responses at the watershed scale. This study aimed to assess the hydrological and soil erosion processes in small watersheds under three different land uses, at three time scales. We investigated four small watersheds in southern Brazil: Agricultural North watershed (ANW), Agricultural South watershed (ASW), Eucalyptus watershed (EW), and Grassland watershed (GW). The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to simulate streamflow (SF) and sediment yield (SY) at monthly, daily and hourly time scales. EW had the lowest SF and SY, whereas ANW showed the highest SY with an increase of 90% and ASW had the highest SF with an increase of 70%. The SWAT model had a satisfactory performance in all time scales and watersheds for SF and SY (NSE and R2 ≥ 0.3 and Pbias ≤ ± 39%). Overall, land use has a major impact on hydrological and soil erosion responses, and the magnitude of these processes depends on the time scale.
{"title":"Evaluating hydrological and soil erosion processes in different time scales and land uses in southern Brazilian paired watersheds","authors":"Thais Palumbo Silva, D. Bressiani, É. Ebling, J. C. de Deus Junior, J. M. Reichert","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2217333","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2217333","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Land use is a driver for hydrological and soil erosion responses at the watershed scale. This study aimed to assess the hydrological and soil erosion processes in small watersheds under three different land uses, at three time scales. We investigated four small watersheds in southern Brazil: Agricultural North watershed (ANW), Agricultural South watershed (ASW), Eucalyptus watershed (EW), and Grassland watershed (GW). The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to simulate streamflow (SF) and sediment yield (SY) at monthly, daily and hourly time scales. EW had the lowest SF and SY, whereas ANW showed the highest SY with an increase of 90% and ASW had the highest SF with an increase of 70%. The SWAT model had a satisfactory performance in all time scales and watersheds for SF and SY (NSE and R2 ≥ 0.3 and Pbias ≤ ± 39%). Overall, land use has a major impact on hydrological and soil erosion responses, and the magnitude of these processes depends on the time scale.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":"68 1","pages":"1391 - 1408"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41881966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-23DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2216844
Leonardo Alves Vergasta, F. W. Correia, P. Satyamurty, S. Chou, A. Lyra, Weslley de Brito Gomes, A. Fleischmann, F. Papa
ABSTRACT Southwestern Amazonia has low spatial coverage of hydro-meteorological data, making climate and hydrological models essential tools. Thus, it is necessary to evaluate these models to verify their suitability for future climate change assessments. We evaluate the ability of a regional climate model (Eta) forced with three Earth system models and a large-scale hydrological model (MGB) to represent hydroclimatic variables for the current climate in the Madeira River basin. Different hydro-meteorological databases are used to evaluate the systematic errors of the coupled model system. The simulation results show that the Eta model underestimates (overestimates) precipitation over the basin during the rainy (dry) season. The hydrological processes simulated by the MGB are considered satisfactory, although the model has some limitations with respect to the timing of floods and their removal in different discharge regimes.
{"title":"An assessment of the present hydroclimatic regime of the Madeira River basin using climate and hydrological models","authors":"Leonardo Alves Vergasta, F. W. Correia, P. Satyamurty, S. Chou, A. Lyra, Weslley de Brito Gomes, A. Fleischmann, F. Papa","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2216844","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2216844","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Southwestern Amazonia has low spatial coverage of hydro-meteorological data, making climate and hydrological models essential tools. Thus, it is necessary to evaluate these models to verify their suitability for future climate change assessments. We evaluate the ability of a regional climate model (Eta) forced with three Earth system models and a large-scale hydrological model (MGB) to represent hydroclimatic variables for the current climate in the Madeira River basin. Different hydro-meteorological databases are used to evaluate the systematic errors of the coupled model system. The simulation results show that the Eta model underestimates (overestimates) precipitation over the basin during the rainy (dry) season. The hydrological processes simulated by the MGB are considered satisfactory, although the model has some limitations with respect to the timing of floods and their removal in different discharge regimes.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":"68 1","pages":"1338 - 1357"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43009483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-19DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2215931
Manuel del Jesus, J. Díez-Sierra
ABSTRACT Sub-daily extreme precipitation events are responsible for flash floods which generate impacts that cannot be analysed using daily precipitation information. In this study, we assess the effects of climate change in sub-daily rainfall statistics for Spain. We downscale daily records to the hourly scale using machine learning techniques, and then update the downscaling predictors to generate the sub-daily rainfall projections. We use the atmospheric climate change projections of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative to update the downscaling predictors. We do not observe important differences between climate change scenarios, except in the average amounts of precipitation. Climate change will intensify the most extreme sub-daily events overall, as well as increase the number of dry spells, although some dry climates concentrate most of the effects. The intensification will increase the 100-year return period event, especially in those regions where large variances are observed, making flash floods more intense in the future.
{"title":"Climate change effects on sub-daily precipitation in Spain","authors":"Manuel del Jesus, J. Díez-Sierra","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2215931","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2215931","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Sub-daily extreme precipitation events are responsible for flash floods which generate impacts that cannot be analysed using daily precipitation information. In this study, we assess the effects of climate change in sub-daily rainfall statistics for Spain. We downscale daily records to the hourly scale using machine learning techniques, and then update the downscaling predictors to generate the sub-daily rainfall projections. We use the atmospheric climate change projections of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative to update the downscaling predictors. We do not observe important differences between climate change scenarios, except in the average amounts of precipitation. Climate change will intensify the most extreme sub-daily events overall, as well as increase the number of dry spells, although some dry climates concentrate most of the effects. The intensification will increase the 100-year return period event, especially in those regions where large variances are observed, making flash floods more intense in the future.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":"68 1","pages":"1065 - 1077"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44894260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-16DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2212166
Jiahua Zhou, Matthew J. Deitch, S. Grunwald, E. Screaton
ABSTRACT The Mann-Kendall (MK) test is frequently used for trend detection in hydrological time series although its power has not been systematically studied under the influence of both missing data and aggregation of data (daily, monthly averages). We used Monte Carlo experiments to examine how the power of the MK test and the accuracy/precision of the Theil-Sen (TS) estimator are affected by missing data and taking averages of the data. A case study using real measurements is presented to evaluate whether the results of the MK test and TS estimates are consistent with different averaging window sizes. Results show interactive effects of missing data and averaging window size on the power of the MK test. The TS slope was accurate; however, its precision was low for minor trends. Our case study showed the TS slope was stable against different averaging window sizes, while the results of the MK test were not.
{"title":"Do the Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope fail to inform trend significance and magnitude in hydrology?","authors":"Jiahua Zhou, Matthew J. Deitch, S. Grunwald, E. Screaton","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2212166","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2212166","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The Mann-Kendall (MK) test is frequently used for trend detection in hydrological time series although its power has not been systematically studied under the influence of both missing data and aggregation of data (daily, monthly averages). We used Monte Carlo experiments to examine how the power of the MK test and the accuracy/precision of the Theil-Sen (TS) estimator are affected by missing data and taking averages of the data. A case study using real measurements is presented to evaluate whether the results of the MK test and TS estimates are consistent with different averaging window sizes. Results show interactive effects of missing data and averaging window size on the power of the MK test. The TS slope was accurate; however, its precision was low for minor trends. Our case study showed the TS slope was stable against different averaging window sizes, while the results of the MK test were not.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":"68 1","pages":"1241 - 1249"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42689419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-16DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2212167
Vanessa Hernandez, J. Arumí, J. Boll, Denisse J. Duhalde, S. MacDonell, R. Oyarzún
ABSTRACT The use of concentration–streamflow (C–Q) relationships is presented as a novel approach for studying climate change effects on water quality. Based on data from nine monitoring stations in the Choapa basin, north-central Chile, constituent behaviours were classified as constancy, enrichment or dilution. Constancy was shown for B, As, and Cu. Dilution and enrichment relationships were observed at some sites. Electrical conductivity and major ions showed dilution behaviour, with Na+, Mg2+, Cl−, SO4 −2 and K+ showing greater variability in response to streamflow changes. Fe, Al, Mn and Zn presented enrichment behaviour, with Al and Fe showing greater variability. Based on historical C-Q relationships and available projections of streamflow variations under climate change, the change in constituent concentrations from 2010 to 2040 likely will not exceed ±10% with respect to the historical average, and ±15% from 2040 to 2070. In particular, Fe and Mn require special attention in the future.
{"title":"Streamflow–concentration relationships of surface water in the Choapa basin: historical analysis and projections under climate change","authors":"Vanessa Hernandez, J. Arumí, J. Boll, Denisse J. Duhalde, S. MacDonell, R. Oyarzún","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2212167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2212167","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The use of concentration–streamflow (C–Q) relationships is presented as a novel approach for studying climate change effects on water quality. Based on data from nine monitoring stations in the Choapa basin, north-central Chile, constituent behaviours were classified as constancy, enrichment or dilution. Constancy was shown for B, As, and Cu. Dilution and enrichment relationships were observed at some sites. Electrical conductivity and major ions showed dilution behaviour, with Na+, Mg2+, Cl−, SO4 −2 and K+ showing greater variability in response to streamflow changes. Fe, Al, Mn and Zn presented enrichment behaviour, with Al and Fe showing greater variability. Based on historical C-Q relationships and available projections of streamflow variations under climate change, the change in constituent concentrations from 2010 to 2040 likely will not exceed ±10% with respect to the historical average, and ±15% from 2040 to 2070. In particular, Fe and Mn require special attention in the future.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":"68 1","pages":"1250 - 1263"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48901992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-11DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2212165
B. Renard
ABSTRACT A national flood mark database spanning several centuries contains valuable information to characterize ancient flood events. However, the network of flood mark sites is distinct from the network of hydrometric stations, making this information difficult to use. This work describes a probabilistic model jointly describing flood marks at sites and flood peaks at stations. The model is based on the estimation of hidden climate indices driving both flood marks and peaks: this allows transferring information between the two variables despite them being measured on distinct networks. The model is applied to about 300 flood mark sites (1705–2015) and 200 stations (1904–2015) in France. Results demonstrate that flood marks allow estimating the time-varying probability of exceeding some high discharge threshold at stations during the whole period 1705–2015, which largely predates the existence of stations. The resulting probability maps provide quantitative information on the extent and spatial structure of ancient floods.
{"title":"Use of a national flood mark database to estimate flood hazard in the distant past","authors":"B. Renard","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2212165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2212165","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT A national flood mark database spanning several centuries contains valuable information to characterize ancient flood events. However, the network of flood mark sites is distinct from the network of hydrometric stations, making this information difficult to use. This work describes a probabilistic model jointly describing flood marks at sites and flood peaks at stations. The model is based on the estimation of hidden climate indices driving both flood marks and peaks: this allows transferring information between the two variables despite them being measured on distinct networks. The model is applied to about 300 flood mark sites (1705–2015) and 200 stations (1904–2015) in France. Results demonstrate that flood marks allow estimating the time-varying probability of exceeding some high discharge threshold at stations during the whole period 1705–2015, which largely predates the existence of stations. The resulting probability maps provide quantitative information on the extent and spatial structure of ancient floods.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":"68 1","pages":"1078 - 1094"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47831467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-11DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2208755
H. Baron, V. Keller, R. Horan, D. J. MacAllister, Mike Simpson, C. Jackson, H. Houghton-Carr, N. Rickards, K. Garg, M. Sekhar, A. MacDonald, G. Rees
ABSTRACT This study explores whether incorporating a more sophisticated representation of groundwater, and human–groundwater interactions, improves predictive capability in a large-scale water resource model. The Global Water Availability Assessment model (GWAVA) is developed to include a simple layered aquifer and associated fluxes (GWAVA-GW), and applied to the Cauvery River basin in India, a large, human-impacted basin with a high dependence on groundwater. GWAVA-GW shows good predictive skill for streamflow upstream of the Mettur dam: Kling-Gupta efficiency ≥ 0.3 for 91% of sub-catchments, and improved model skill for streamflow prediction compared to GWAVA over the majority of the basin. GWAVA-GW shows some level of predictive skill for groundwater levels over seasonal and long-term time scales, with a tendency to overestimate depth to groundwater in areas with high levels of groundwater pumping. Overall, GWAVA-GW is a useful tool when assessing water resources at a basin scale, especially in areas that rely on groundwater.
{"title":"Improving the representation of groundwater processes in a large-scale water resources model","authors":"H. Baron, V. Keller, R. Horan, D. J. MacAllister, Mike Simpson, C. Jackson, H. Houghton-Carr, N. Rickards, K. Garg, M. Sekhar, A. MacDonald, G. Rees","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2208755","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2208755","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study explores whether incorporating a more sophisticated representation of groundwater, and human–groundwater interactions, improves predictive capability in a large-scale water resource model. The Global Water Availability Assessment model (GWAVA) is developed to include a simple layered aquifer and associated fluxes (GWAVA-GW), and applied to the Cauvery River basin in India, a large, human-impacted basin with a high dependence on groundwater. GWAVA-GW shows good predictive skill for streamflow upstream of the Mettur dam: Kling-Gupta efficiency ≥ 0.3 for 91% of sub-catchments, and improved model skill for streamflow prediction compared to GWAVA over the majority of the basin. GWAVA-GW shows some level of predictive skill for groundwater levels over seasonal and long-term time scales, with a tendency to overestimate depth to groundwater in areas with high levels of groundwater pumping. Overall, GWAVA-GW is a useful tool when assessing water resources at a basin scale, especially in areas that rely on groundwater.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":"68 1","pages":"1264 - 1285"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45522615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2193294
Diego Urrea Méndez, Manuel del Jesus
ABSTRACT In hydrology, extreme value analysis is normally applied at stationary yearly maxima. However, climate variability can bias the estimation of extremes by partially invalidating the stationary assumption. Extreme value analysis for sub-yearly data may depart from stationarity (since maxima from one month may not be exchangeable with maxima from another) in terms of requiring to include it in the analysis. Here, we analyse the non-stationary structure of extreme monthly rainfall in Spain using two approaches: a parametric approach and an approach based on autoregressive time series models. Our analysis considers seasonality, climate variability and long-term trends for both approaches, and it compares both including their goodness of fit and complexity. The approach uses maximum likelihood estimation and Bayesian techniques. Our results show that autoregressive models outperform parametric models, providing a more accurate representation of extreme events when extrapolating outside of the period of fit.
{"title":"Estimating extreme monthly rainfall for Spain using non-stationary techniques","authors":"Diego Urrea Méndez, Manuel del Jesus","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2193294","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2193294","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In hydrology, extreme value analysis is normally applied at stationary yearly maxima. However, climate variability can bias the estimation of extremes by partially invalidating the stationary assumption. Extreme value analysis for sub-yearly data may depart from stationarity (since maxima from one month may not be exchangeable with maxima from another) in terms of requiring to include it in the analysis. Here, we analyse the non-stationary structure of extreme monthly rainfall in Spain using two approaches: a parametric approach and an approach based on autoregressive time series models. Our analysis considers seasonality, climate variability and long-term trends for both approaches, and it compares both including their goodness of fit and complexity. The approach uses maximum likelihood estimation and Bayesian techniques. Our results show that autoregressive models outperform parametric models, providing a more accurate representation of extreme events when extrapolating outside of the period of fit.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":"68 1","pages":"903 - 919"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43096958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-03DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2206970
Abdullah Akbas, Hasan Ozdemir
ABSTRACT Understanding the influence of atmospheric circulation on the variability of hydroclimatic parameters can considerably contribute to water management. In this study, atmospheric dynamics on rainfall/runoff variability in Marmara Sea river basins were investigated via principal component analysis (PCA) and trend analyses. Correlation maps were obtained for rainfall/runoff PC scores and 500 hPa geopotential using ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). The correlations between rainfall/runoff PC scores and teleconnection indices were employed to support the PCA analysis. The first component, a monopolar structure, expresses northerly atmospheric influence on the rainfall/runoff; the second component, a dipolar structure, explains the low rainfall/runoff conditions; the last component defines local properties. Teleconnections demonstrate that North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is highly correlated with rainfall and runoff PC scores, particularly in winter. Moreover, runoff trends are consistent with rainfall trends except for summer, and these trends and oscillations are related to the teleconnections. Therefore, the anomalies can be predicted based on atmospheric conditions.
{"title":"Influence of atmospheric circulation on the variability of hydroclimatic parameters in the Marmara Sea river basins","authors":"Abdullah Akbas, Hasan Ozdemir","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2206970","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2206970","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Understanding the influence of atmospheric circulation on the variability of hydroclimatic parameters can considerably contribute to water management. In this study, atmospheric dynamics on rainfall/runoff variability in Marmara Sea river basins were investigated via principal component analysis (PCA) and trend analyses. Correlation maps were obtained for rainfall/runoff PC scores and 500 hPa geopotential using ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). The correlations between rainfall/runoff PC scores and teleconnection indices were employed to support the PCA analysis. The first component, a monopolar structure, expresses northerly atmospheric influence on the rainfall/runoff; the second component, a dipolar structure, explains the low rainfall/runoff conditions; the last component defines local properties. Teleconnections demonstrate that North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is highly correlated with rainfall and runoff PC scores, particularly in winter. Moreover, runoff trends are consistent with rainfall trends except for summer, and these trends and oscillations are related to the teleconnections. Therefore, the anomalies can be predicted based on atmospheric conditions.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":"68 1","pages":"1229 - 1240"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42880300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-03DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2206969
P. Kumari, S. Rehana, S. Singh, M. Inayathulla
ABSTRACT Drought complexity may not be accurately characterized by univariate meteorological or hydrological drought indices under the intensification of hydrological cycle due to climate change and human activities. In particular, such drought indices require long series of hydro-meteorological data, which are unavailable over ungauged and data-scarce catchments. In this study, a multivariate drought index, Standardized Precipitation Actual Evapotranspiration Index-Agro (SPAEI-Agro), is proposed, which combines meteorological and hydrological variables as precipitation (P), actual evapotranspiration (AET), runoff and groundwater (GW) of ungauged catchments and sub-catchment scales with diverse climatology. SPAEI-Agro was able to characterize severe drought events more accurately in humid and dry sub-humid sub-catchments compared to Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Streamflow Drought Index (SSDI) for Tunga-Bhadra River, India. SPEI (based upon potential evapotranspiration) and SSDI (based on streamflow) showed intensified drought characteristics compared to the new P, AET and GW-based drought indicator SPAEI-Agro in semi-arid and dry sub-humid climates.
{"title":"Development of a new agro-meteorological drought index (SPAEI-Agro) in a data-scarce region","authors":"P. Kumari, S. Rehana, S. Singh, M. Inayathulla","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2206969","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2206969","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Drought complexity may not be accurately characterized by univariate meteorological or hydrological drought indices under the intensification of hydrological cycle due to climate change and human activities. In particular, such drought indices require long series of hydro-meteorological data, which are unavailable over ungauged and data-scarce catchments. In this study, a multivariate drought index, Standardized Precipitation Actual Evapotranspiration Index-Agro (SPAEI-Agro), is proposed, which combines meteorological and hydrological variables as precipitation (P), actual evapotranspiration (AET), runoff and groundwater (GW) of ungauged catchments and sub-catchment scales with diverse climatology. SPAEI-Agro was able to characterize severe drought events more accurately in humid and dry sub-humid sub-catchments compared to Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Streamflow Drought Index (SSDI) for Tunga-Bhadra River, India. SPEI (based upon potential evapotranspiration) and SSDI (based on streamflow) showed intensified drought characteristics compared to the new P, AET and GW-based drought indicator SPAEI-Agro in semi-arid and dry sub-humid climates.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":"68 1","pages":"1301 - 1322"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45331338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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