Different from previous studies, this paper is motivated to examine supply chain risk from a complex network perspective rather than a simple supply chain structure, and considers risk propagation and intervention in a complex supply chain network (CSCN) under public emergency. Facing the crisis triggered by public emergency, the government decides to aid partial enterprises in order to improve the stability of the CSCN. Inspired by the similarity between the risk propagation in the CSCN and the diffusion of infectious disease in the social network, this study tries to develop a new risk propagation model of the CSCN based on the SEIR system dynamics theory in infectious disease field. Using the classic basic reproduction number (BRN) concept, which means the average number of enterprises that one infected enterprise will infect, this study examines the risk propagation behavior and its threshold in the CSCN. This study finds out that the government can effectively control the risk propagation in the CSCN by way of controlling the BRN. Under the control of government, if the BRN is smaller than one, then the risk will withdraw. On the contrary, if the BRN is bigger than one, then the risk will diffuse to the entire supply chain network at all. This study also finds out that the risk propagation in the CSCN is relatively sensitive to the recovery probability. This study further conducts simulation analysis of risk propagation, the results demonstrate that the risk will be controlled or abated by controlling the BRN.
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