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Strategic perspectives on quitting or remaining in commercial agriculture in South Africa and why it matters 南非退出或继续从事商业农业的战略视角及其重要性
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2022.2032222
Kandas Cloete, J. Greyling, Marion Delport
ABSTRACT This paper explores reasons why some commercial producers in South Africa are expecting to quit and sell their farms, and others are not. Of 450 respondents to a voluntary survey, distinctly different groups of producers emerged concerning their longer-term strategic planning and how they experience and absorb current threats and challenges. Unsupervised learning on the dataset is imposed using a cluster analysis to explore the commonalities and the underlying factors why producers would expect to exit or not. Factors that we hypothesised might play a role included a producer's age and financial position, rural safety concerns, labor problems, industry-related problems, and opportunities for off-farm earnings. The factors the potentially exiting producers had in common were financial difficulty, which was uncorrelated to turnover, problems with access to dependable labor, uncertainty regarding land reform policy, and rural safety concerns. Intention to retire also played a role, although to a lesser extent. It is more often a combination of factors, rather than a single factor, that makes a producer more likely to decide to quit and sell in the future. With the exclusion of farm safety concerns and labor problems, the identified factors in this study are in step with those found internationally.
摘要本文探讨了南非一些商业生产者希望退出并出售农场,而另一些则不然的原因。在一项自愿调查的450名受访者中,出现了截然不同的生产商群体,涉及他们的长期战略规划,以及他们如何经历和吸收当前的威胁和挑战。使用聚类分析对数据集进行无监督学习,以探索生产者期望退出或不退出的共性和潜在因素。我们假设可能起作用的因素包括生产者的年龄和财务状况、农村安全问题、劳动力问题、行业相关问题以及非农收入机会。潜在退出生产商的共同因素是与营业额无关的财务困难、获得可靠劳动力的问题、土地改革政策的不确定性以及农村安全问题。退休的意愿也起到了一定作用,尽管程度较低。通常是多种因素的结合,而不是单一因素,使生产商更有可能决定在未来退出并出售。排除了农场安全问题和劳动力问题,本研究中确定的因素与国际上发现的因素一致。
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引用次数: 1
Identifying possible misspecification in South African soybean oil futures contracts 识别南非豆油期货合约中可能存在的错误说明
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.2006070
Andre Van der Vyver, Ulonka Barnard, Jean-Pierre Nordier
ABSTRACT With the inclusion of a locally traded soybean oil futures contract, that is dual-listed and cash-settled of the Chicago Board of Trade futures contract, the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) aimed to provide local soybean crushing plants, the opportunity for managing their exposure toward the variation in soybean oil prices using effective hedging strategies. Which is only viable assuming adequate liquidity, that is currently lacking in these futures contracts. The soybean oil contract used for hedging local price exposure should also reflect local import parity and/or be correlated to local price movements. Therefore, with most soybean oil usually being imported from Argentina, one would expect SAFEX soybean oil futures contracts to reflect the cost of imported soybean oil from Argentina. Hence, the research study used the Engle–Granger (1987) cointegration approach, alongside a range of diagnostic tests to determine whether SAFEX soybean oil futures contracts, that is dual-listed and cash-settled of CBOT settlement values is a misspecification and whether or not SAFEX soybean oil futures contracts should rather be based on the Argentina free-on-board soybean oil prices which is a much better representation of South Africa’s import parity and local industry prices.
南非期货交易所(SAFEX)引入了一种本地交易的大豆油期货合约,即芝加哥期货交易所双重上市和现金结算的大豆油期货合约,旨在为本地大豆压榨厂提供利用有效对冲策略管理其对大豆油价格波动风险敞口的机会。这只有在流动性充足的前提下才可行,而目前这些期货合约缺乏流动性。用于对冲当地价格风险敞口的大豆油合约也应反映当地进口平价和/或与当地价格变动相关。因此,由于大多数大豆油通常从阿根廷进口,人们会期望SAFEX大豆油期货合约反映从阿根廷进口大豆油的成本。因此,本研究使用恩格尔-格兰杰(1987)协整方法,以及一系列诊断测试来确定SAFEX大豆油期货合约,即双重上市和CBOT结算价值的现金结算是否是一种错误的规范,以及SAFEX大豆油期货合约是否应该基于阿根廷的离岸大豆油价格,因为后者更能代表南非的进口平价和当地的行业价格。
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引用次数: 0
A sector-wide review of the COVID-19 impact on the South African agricultural sector during 2020–21 2020-21年期间2019冠状病毒病对南非农业部门影响的全部门审查
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2022.2030241
F. Meyer, Johann Kirsten, Tracy Davids, Marion Delport, H. Vermeulen, W. Sihlobo, Lucia Anlich
ABSTRACT The agriculture value chain is a complex web of interactions which includes activities within the agricultural sector and various support industries less directly linked to the sector. Despite being declared an essential service when the COVID-19 regulations were promulgated and lockdown restrictions imposed, the value chain still faced multiple bottlenecks and disruptions that needed to be overcome to ensure food security through this period. This paper considers such bottlenecks and their impacts on major industries within agriculture, as well as the actions taken to address them. It highlights distributional challenges, which influenced accessibility to vulnerable groups, which was accentuated by the initial exclusion of informal traders from essential services – an omission that was later corrected. Furthermore, it notes severe impacts on non-food industries such as wine, where trade was restricted, but other sectors performed well and overall, agriculture still grew by 13% year on year and mostly keeping food inflation in check. Key to this performance was that real time communication and reporting mechanisms were put in place, allowing stakeholders to report bottlenecks quickly, from where they could be escalated and addressed through strong collaboration between government and industry.
农业价值链是一个复杂的互动网络,包括农业部门内的活动和与该部门不直接相关的各种支持行业。尽管在2019冠状病毒病法规颁布和封锁限制实施时被宣布为基本服务,但价值链仍然面临多个瓶颈和中断,需要克服这些瓶颈和中断,以确保这一时期的粮食安全。本文考虑了这些瓶颈及其对农业主要产业的影响,以及为解决这些问题所采取的行动。它突出了分配方面的挑战,这些挑战影响到弱势群体获得基本服务的机会,最初将非正规商人排除在基本服务之外,这一疏漏后来得到纠正,从而加剧了这种挑战。此外,报告还指出,葡萄酒等非食品行业受到严重影响,这些行业的贸易受到限制,但其他行业表现良好,总体而言,农业仍同比增长13%,在很大程度上控制了食品通胀。取得这一成绩的关键是建立了实时沟通和报告机制,使利益相关者能够快速报告瓶颈,从而可以通过政府和行业之间的强有力合作来升级和解决瓶颈。
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引用次数: 3
Special collection of articles on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on South African agriculture 关于新冠肺炎疫情对南非农业影响的特别文章集
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2022.2034791
Johann Kirsten
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a disruptive impact on the world economy and the lives of all people. The pandemic is characteristic of a typical "Black Swan" event with unprecedented scope, characteristics, consequences and responses by governments in all countries. The legislative constraints imposed by governments in most countries on the movement of people and goods and services disrupted the global economy dramatically with large negative impacts on the growth and absolute size of economies. Although agricultural and food production across the world was deemed an essential service for the basic needs of people, the sector did not fully escape the disruptive impact of the pandemic.
新冠肺炎疫情继续对世界经济和所有人的生活产生破坏性影响。这场疫情是一场典型的“黑天鹅”事件,其范围、特点、后果和各国政府的应对措施都是前所未有的。大多数国家政府对人员、货物和服务流动施加的立法限制极大地扰乱了全球经济,对经济增长和绝对规模产生了巨大的负面影响。尽管世界各地的农业和粮食生产被认为是满足人们基本需求的基本服务,但该行业并没有完全摆脱疫情的破坏性影响。
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引用次数: 1
Do changes in maize prices and input prices affect smallholder farmers’ soil fertility management decisions? panel survey evidence from Kenya 玉米价格和投入价格的变化会影响小农的土壤肥力管理决策吗?来自肯尼亚的专家组调查证据
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-12-24 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.2006071
David Olson, N. Mason, L. Kirimi, J. Makau
ABSTRACT Soil fertility management (SFM) practices such as maize-legume intercropping and organic fertiliser, particularly when used jointly with inorganic fertiliser, have the potential to increase yields and yield response to inorganic fertiliser, improve soil health, and contribute to sustainable intensification (SI). However, relatively little is known about the drivers of adoption of these practices, especially for joint use. Moreover, it has been suggested that African farmers will respond to an increase in the maize price they expect to receive at the next harvest by increasing investment in their soils or altering use of SFM practices in response to input price changes. Yet previous studies largely ignore the role of prices. Using nationwide household panel survey data from Kenya, we estimate the effects of changes in crop and input prices on household use of individual SFM practices and combinations thereof. We find that Kenyan smallholders’ SFM adoption decisions are largely insensitive to changes in expected maize prices. However, when inorganic fertiliser prices rise, farmers are more likely to use organic fertiliser and use less inorganic fertiliser per acre. These results suggest that price policies alone are unlikely to be effective ways to promote SI of maize production in Kenya.
摘要土壤肥力管理(SFM)实践,如玉米-豆类间作和有机肥料,特别是与无机肥料联合使用时,有可能提高产量和对无机肥料的产量反应,改善土壤健康,并有助于可持续集约化(SI)。然而,人们对采用这些做法的驱动因素知之甚少,尤其是在联合使用方面。此外,有人建议,非洲农民将通过增加对土壤的投资或改变SFM做法的使用来应对下一次收获时玉米价格的上涨。然而,以前的研究在很大程度上忽略了价格的作用。利用肯尼亚全国家庭小组调查数据,我们估计了作物和投入价格的变化对家庭使用单个SFM做法及其组合的影响。我们发现,肯尼亚小农户采用SFM的决定在很大程度上对预期玉米价格的变化不敏感。然而,当无机肥料价格上涨时,农民更有可能使用有机肥料,每英亩使用更少的无机肥料。这些结果表明,仅靠价格政策不太可能成为促进肯尼亚玉米生产SI的有效途径。
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引用次数: 0
Hotspots of vulnerability and disruption in food value chains during COVID-19 in South Africa: industry- and firm-level “pivoting” in response 2019冠状病毒病期间南非食品价值链的脆弱性和中断热点:行业和公司层面的“转向”应对
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-12-24 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.2007779
F. Meyer, T. Reardon, Tracy Davids, M. van der Merwe, D. Jordaan, Marion Delport, Gerhard Van Den Burgh
ABSTRACT We use a primary data set from a survey of medium and large firms and farms in the beef, citrus, and maize value chains in South Africa during March-June 2020, the early and late phases of the initial COVID-19 lockdowns. We have five main findings. (1) The initial lockdown regulations declared as “essential” the product (vertical) value chains but left as “inessential” the important “lateral” value chains delivering labour, materials, and logistics to the segments of the vertical value chains. This hurt the three vertical value chains as constraints in the laterals choked key segments of the verticals. (2) Vulnerability of the whole value chain emanated from vulnerability to shocks of critical “hotspot” linchpin segments (such as livestock auctions) or infrastructure (such as at ports). (3) Collective, industry-level “pivoting” was crucial both to organize the private sector response and to interact with government to course-correct on COVID-19 policies. (4) Responses to pre-COVID-19 challenges (such as drought and international phytosanitary rule changes) had prepared the beef and citrus value chain actors to respond collectively to the pandemic challenges. (5) Individual firm- and segment-level “pivoting” was also crucial for resilience, such as cattle auctions going on-line with the help of e-commerce firms.
我们使用的主要数据集来自2020年3月至6月期间对南非牛肉、柑橘和玉米价值链中的大中型企业和农场的调查,这是COVID-19最初封锁的早期和后期阶段。我们有五个主要发现。(1)最初的封锁规定宣布产品(垂直)价值链为“必要”,但将向垂直价值链各环节提供劳动力、材料和物流的重要“横向”价值链视为“非必要”。这对三个垂直价值链造成了伤害,因为水平段的限制阻碍了垂直段的关键部分。(2)整个价值链的脆弱性源于对关键“热点”关键环节(如牲畜拍卖)或基础设施(如港口)冲击的脆弱性。(3)行业层面的集体“转向”对于组织私营部门应对以及与政府互动以纠正COVID-19政策至关重要。(4)应对2019冠状病毒病前的挑战(如干旱和国际植物检疫规则变化)使牛肉和柑橘价值链行为体做好了集体应对大流行挑战的准备。(5)个体企业和细分市场层面的“转向”对恢复力也至关重要,比如在电子商务公司的帮助下,牛的拍卖在网上进行。
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引用次数: 4
Social protection policy and agricultural labour outcome in West Africa 西非的社会保护政策和农业劳动力成果
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-11-16 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1997773
Romanus Osabohien, O. Matthew, Hajra Maqsood
ABSTRACT This study engages panel data consisting of 15 West African countries that are members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To resolve the possible issues of endogeneity, the system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) was applied. The data for the analysis was sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), and the World Development Indicators (WDI) for the period 2005–2018. Findings show that all social protection indicators included in the study are positive and significant in explaining the level of agricultural labour outcome in West Africa. The implication of the result is that policy for social inclusion, building human resources, equity in public resource use and overall social protection coverage may increase agricultural labour outcomes by 0.77%, 0.82% and 0.26%, respectively. The study concludes that to raise labour productivity in West Africa towards the achievement of the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially, SDG-1, there is a need for social protection coverage to mitigate shocks and vulnerability.
摘要本研究采用了由西非国家经济共同体(西非经共体)成员国15个西非国家组成的小组数据。为了解决可能存在的内生性问题,采用了系统广义矩量法(GMM)。分析数据来源于粮食及农业组织(FAO)、国家政策和机构评估(CPIA)以及2005-2018年期间的世界发展指标(WDI)。研究结果表明,研究中包含的所有社会保护指标都是积极的,在解释西非农业劳动力成果水平方面具有重要意义。这一结果的含义是,社会包容政策、人力资源建设政策、公共资源使用公平政策和总体社会保护覆盖率可能分别使农业劳动力成果增加0.77%、0.82%和0.26%。该研究得出结论,为了提高西非的劳动生产率,实现联合国可持续发展目标,特别是可持续发展目标1,需要社会保护覆盖范围,以减轻冲击和脆弱性。
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引用次数: 0
Selling at the farmgate? Role of liquidity constraints and implications for agricultural productivity 在农场门口卖?流动性约束的作用及其对农业生产力的影响
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1980409
J. Ateka, P. A. Onono-Okelo, M. Etyang
ABSTRACT Market trends in many developing countries indicate that selling agricultural produce to itinerant traders at the farmgate has been rising, despite criticism that the practice preys on and exploits farmers. Using a cross-sectional data set of 525 households, we investigate the factors influencing participation in farmgate trading and its effects on agricultural productivity in western Kenya. We specifically consider the role of liquidity–related variables within a context of the perennial export crops, a contribution that has received less attention in literature. Our analysis reveals that variables related to demand for liquidity at the household level are strongly correlated with the selling of tea at the farmgate by smallholder tea farmers in the study area. The results also show that the household context (farmer's age, education and residence), farm characteristics (volume of output and age of tea plantation) and institutional variables (group membership and extension) are key determinants of household selling decisions. In addition, we find evidence that farmgate selling has a positive influence on crop productivity. We recommend strengthening of mechanisms that enable farmers to engage better with the existing market channels and encourage greater competition, in place of policies seeking to curtail the operations of farmgate traders.
摘要许多发展中国家的市场趋势表明,在农场门口向流动贸易商出售农产品的情况一直在增加,尽管有人批评这种做法掠夺和剥削农民。利用525户家庭的横断面数据集,我们调查了影响肯尼亚西部农场门交易参与度的因素及其对农业生产力的影响。我们特别考虑了流动性相关变量在多年生出口作物背景下的作用,这一贡献在文献中受到的关注较少。我们的分析表明,与家庭层面的流动性需求相关的变量与研究地区小农户在农场门口的茶叶销售密切相关。研究结果还表明,家庭背景(农民年龄、教育程度和居住地)、农场特征(产量和茶园年龄)和制度变量(群体成员和扩展)是家庭销售决策的关键决定因素。此外,我们发现有证据表明,农场门市销售对作物生产力有积极影响。我们建议加强机制,使农民能够更好地参与现有的市场渠道,鼓励更大的竞争,以取代旨在限制农场贸易商经营的政策。
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引用次数: 5
Does the use of multiple agricultural technologies affect household welfare? Evidence from Northern Ghana 多种农业技术的使用是否会影响家庭福利?来自加纳北部的证据
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1992290
Wencong C. Lu, K. Addai, John N. Ng’ombe
ABSTRACT Agricultural intensification has been encouraged through the promotion of various agricultural technologies, but the synergies between different technologies have not been fully explored among various specific crops. Using the multinomial endogenous switching regression model complemented with the multivalued inverse probability regression model, this study determines the impacts of the adoption of combinations of chemical fertiliser, improved rice seeds, and herbicides on household welfare. Data were collected from 900 farm households in Northern Ghana. Our results indicate that the adoption of combinations of agricultural technologies is affected by various socio-economic attributes, resource constraints, institutional factors, and production shocks. We find that adopting multiple technologies improves rice yields, gross rice income, and per capita consumption expenditure. The results point out the crucial synergistic effects of the adoption of agricultural technologies on household welfare. We suggest that policies aimed at strengthening farm household welfare should encourage adopting multiple agricultural technologies in rice-producing farm households to realise the most welfare.
摘要农业集约化是通过推广各种农业技术来鼓励的,但不同技术之间的协同作用尚未在各种特定作物中得到充分探索。本研究使用多项式内生切换回归模型和多值逆概率回归模型,确定了化肥、改良水稻种子和除草剂组合对家庭福利的影响。数据来自加纳北部的900个农户。我们的研究结果表明,农业技术组合的采用受到各种社会经济属性、资源约束、制度因素和生产冲击的影响。我们发现,采用多种技术可以提高水稻产量、水稻总收入和人均消费支出。研究结果指出了采用农业技术对家庭福利的关键协同效应。我们建议,旨在加强农户福利的政策应鼓励在水稻生产农户中采用多种农业技术,以实现最大的福利。
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引用次数: 7
Smallholder farmers’ willingness to pay for access to agricultural market information in Tanzania 坦桑尼亚小农为获取农业市场信息而付费的意愿
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1980410
M. Magesa, Noah Nasson Mkasanga
ABSTRACT Introducing user access charges to smallholder farmers accessing agricultural market information is considered as a strategy of financing operations of agricultural market information services. This research studied smallholders' willingness to pay for access charges as a strategy of sustaining information provision operations. Using questionnaires, data were collected from smallholders, randomly selected from three regions in Tanzania. Econometric models were used for data analysis. The Probit model indicated that factors that determine mobile phone use by smallholders included age, mobile phone use knowledge, reasons for growing crops, channels to available markets, and changes in farming practices. The Ordered Probit model indicated that road condition to markets, changing farming practices, and awareness on agricultural market information usefulness determined smallholders' willingness to pay for access charges. The Censored Tobit model indicated that the premium smallholders are willing to pay depends on their mobile phone use knowledge, farming techniques practiced, changes in farming practices, bargaining ability, and awareness on agricultural market information usefulness. To boost production, smallholders need to develop capabilities in different farming practices. For best information provisions, private sector can provide platform and resources needed for platform management while the government can ensure conducive environment for agricultural marketing and of information dissemination.
摘要:向获取农业市场信息的小农户收取用户访问费被认为是农业市场信息服务融资运营的一种策略。这项研究研究了小农户支付访问费的意愿,以此作为维持信息提供业务的一种策略。通过问卷调查,从坦桑尼亚三个地区随机选择的小农户中收集数据。数据分析采用了计量经济学模型。Probit模型表明,决定小农户使用手机的因素包括年龄、手机使用知识、种植作物的原因、进入可用市场的渠道以及农业实践的变化。有序Probit模型表明,通往市场的道路状况、不断变化的农业实践以及对农业市场信息有用性的认识决定了小农户支付准入费的意愿。Censored Tobit模型表明,小农户愿意支付的溢价取决于他们的手机使用知识、耕作技术、耕作实践的变化、议价能力和对农业市场信息有用性的认识。为了提高产量,小农户需要发展不同耕作方式的能力。为了提供最佳信息,私营部门可以提供平台管理所需的平台和资源,而政府可以确保有利于农业营销和信息传播的环境。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
Agrekon
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